MARTA Presented by: John, Keke & Ken

8.Tell the story 1.Define the problem 2.Assemble some evidence 3.Construct the alternatives 4.Select the criteria 5.Project the outcomes 6.Confront the tradeoffs 7.Decide! Policy Analysis Eight-Step Path

Background MARTA ---The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority the 9th largest transit system in the nation. include Clayton County C-TRAN, Cobb Commuity Transit, the GRTA Xpress system, Gwinnett County Transit, and a number of local circulator systems 38 rail stations,609 buses and 15 small buses ,48 miles of tracks. Till to FY 2007

the 9th largest transit system in the nation.

include Clayton County C-TRAN, Cobb Commuity Transit, the GRTA Xpress system, Gwinnett County Transit, and a number of local circulator systems

38 rail stations,609 buses and 15 small buses ,48 miles of tracks.

Define the Problem D ifficulties to make an accurate prediction of MARTA’s annual revenue

D ifficulties to make an accurate prediction of MARTA’s annual revenue

Model of Local Revenue Pie Chart Sales Taxes Property Taxes Licenses Fines Charges for Services Others

Revenue for MARTA Sales Taxes Others Fares

Expenditure of MARTA

Assemble Some Evidence Sales Taxes Taxable Sales Employment Per Capita Income Inflation Population Retail Sales

Construct the Alternatives Single-equation regression models Multiple-equation regression models Causal Forecasting 03 Judgmental Forecasting 01 Causal land and deductive forecasts Observational and inductive forecasts Experiential forecasts Trend F orecasting 02 Time-series data analysis Computer software applications for forecasting Proportionate chandge or averaging techniques

Single-equation regression models

Multiple-equation regression models

Causal Forecasting

Judgmental Forecasting

Causal land and deductive forecasts

Observational and inductive forecasts

Experiential forecasts

Trend F orecasting

Time-series data analysis

Computer software applications for forecasting

Proportionate chandge or averaging techniques

Select the Criteria Accuracy of the result

Accuracy of the result

Project the Outcomes

Decision! Average time-series data to develop trends by such techniques as proportionate change Basic averaging-ratio method with exponential smoothing or move to nonlinear regression Extrapolative and causal techniques employ bivariate or multivariate least-squares regression equations

Question I f the prediction does not meet the actual annual revenue for MARTA, how can we do ?

I f the prediction does not meet the actual annual revenue for MARTA, how can we do ?

Define a New Problem Budget deficits and even the level of carry-over reserves have been insufficient

Budget deficits and even the level of carry-over reserves have been insufficient

Stakeholders Riders 1 2 Appointed MARTA Board 3 Public Secotor Unions 4 Bondholders 5 Bond-rating Agencies

Assemble Some Evidence Population Statistics Report Riders Geological Distribution Statistics Report Years of MARTA Budgets and Audit Reports Local Economic Development Research Residents Income Survey Other Public Transit Operational Experience Bond Market Trend Survey Legislative Documents Related to Operation of Public Enterprise … …

Population Statistics Report

Riders Geological Distribution Statistics Report

Years of MARTA Budgets and Audit Reports

Local Economic Development Research

Residents Income Survey

Other Public Transit Operational Experience

Bond Market Trend Survey

Legislative Documents Related to Operation of Public Enterprise

… …

Construct the Alternative Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority Act of 1965 allows MARTA to adjust the fares to cover at least 35% operating costs Cut back / Shorten some routes with few riders Postpone purchase of new vehicles Reduce frequency of old device’s update Provide more value-added services Cooperate with other counties or cities

Cut back / Shorten some routes with few riders

Postpone purchase of new vehicles

Reduce frequency of old device’s update

Provide more value-added services

Cooperate with other counties or cities

Select the Criteria Effectiveness Efficiency Equity Legislative

Project the Outcomes Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares Legislative Equity Efficiency Effectiveness

Confront the Tradeoff Pareto Efficiency Cardol-Hicks Standard

Decision! Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority Act of 1965 allows MARTA to adjust the fares to cover at least 35% operating costs Cut back / Shorten some routes with few riders Postpone purchase of new vehicles Reduce frequency of old device’s update Provide more value-added services Cooperate with other counties or cities √

Cut back / Shorten some routes with few riders

Postpone purchase of new vehicles

Reduce frequency of old device’s update

Provide more value-added services

Cooperate with other counties or cities

John, Keke and Ken