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Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
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Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4

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  • 1. MARTA Presented by: John, Keke & Ken
  • 2. 8.Tell the story 1.Define the problem 2.Assemble some evidence 3.Construct the alternatives 4.Select the criteria 5.Project the outcomes 6.Confront the tradeoffs 7.Decide! Policy Analysis Eight-Step Path
  • 3. Background MARTA ---The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority
    • the 9th largest transit system in the nation.
    • include Clayton County C-TRAN, Cobb Commuity Transit, the GRTA Xpress system, Gwinnett County Transit, and a number of local circulator systems
    • 38 rail stations,609 buses and 15 small buses ,48 miles of tracks.
    Till to FY 2007
  • 4. Define the Problem
    • D ifficulties to make an accurate prediction of MARTA’s annual revenue
  • 5. Model of Local Revenue Pie Chart Sales Taxes Property Taxes Licenses Fines Charges for Services Others
  • 6. Revenue for MARTA Sales Taxes Others Fares
  • 7. Expenditure of MARTA
  • 8. Assemble Some Evidence Sales Taxes Taxable Sales Employment Per Capita Income Inflation Population Retail Sales
  • 9. Construct the Alternatives
    • Single-equation regression models
    • Multiple-equation regression models
    • Causal Forecasting
    03
    • Judgmental Forecasting
    01
    • Causal land and deductive forecasts
    • Observational and inductive forecasts
    • Experiential forecasts
    • Trend F orecasting
    02
    • Time-series data analysis
    • Computer software applications for forecasting
    • Proportionate chandge or averaging techniques
  • 10. Select the Criteria
    • Accuracy of the result
  • 11. Project the Outcomes
  • 12. Decision! Average time-series data to develop trends by such techniques as proportionate change Basic averaging-ratio method with exponential smoothing or move to nonlinear regression Extrapolative and causal techniques employ bivariate or multivariate least-squares regression equations
  • 13. Question
    • I f the prediction does not meet the actual annual revenue for MARTA, how can we do ?
  • 14. Define a New Problem
    • Budget deficits and even the level of carry-over reserves have been insufficient
  • 15. Stakeholders Riders 1 2 Appointed MARTA Board 3 Public Secotor Unions 4 Bondholders 5 Bond-rating Agencies
  • 16. Assemble Some Evidence
    • Population Statistics Report
    • Riders Geological Distribution Statistics Report
    • Years of MARTA Budgets and Audit Reports
    • Local Economic Development Research
    • Residents Income Survey
    • Other Public Transit Operational Experience
    • Bond Market Trend Survey
    • Legislative Documents Related to Operation of Public Enterprise
    • … …
  • 17. Construct the Alternative Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority Act of 1965 allows MARTA to adjust the fares to cover at least 35% operating costs
    • Cut back / Shorten some routes with few riders
    • Postpone purchase of new vehicles
    • Reduce frequency of old device’s update
    • Provide more value-added services
    • Cooperate with other counties or cities
  • 18. Select the Criteria Effectiveness Efficiency Equity Legislative
  • 19. Project the Outcomes Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares Legislative Equity Efficiency Effectiveness
  • 20. Confront the Tradeoff Pareto Efficiency Cardol-Hicks Standard
  • 21. Decision! Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority Act of 1965 allows MARTA to adjust the fares to cover at least 35% operating costs
    • Cut back / Shorten some routes with few riders
    • Postpone purchase of new vehicles
    • Reduce frequency of old device’s update
    • Provide more value-added services
    • Cooperate with other counties or cities
  • 22. John, Keke and Ken