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Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4
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Forecasting Local Revenue - Policy Analysis Chapter 4

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  • 1. MARTA Presented by: John, Keke & Ken
  • 2. 8.Tell the story 1.Define the problem 2.Assemble some evidence 3.Construct the alternatives 4.Select the criteria 5.Project the outcomes 6.Confront the tradeoffs 7.Decide! Policy Analysis Eight-Step Path
  • 3. Background MARTA ---The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority <ul><li>the 9th largest transit system in the nation. </li></ul><ul><li>include Clayton County C-TRAN, Cobb Commuity Transit, the GRTA Xpress system, Gwinnett County Transit, and a number of local circulator systems </li></ul><ul><li>38 rail stations,609 buses and 15 small buses ,48 miles of tracks. </li></ul>Till to FY 2007
  • 4. Define the Problem <ul><li>D ifficulties to make an accurate prediction of MARTA’s annual revenue </li></ul>
  • 5. Model of Local Revenue Pie Chart Sales Taxes Property Taxes Licenses Fines Charges for Services Others
  • 6. Revenue for MARTA Sales Taxes Others Fares
  • 7. Expenditure of MARTA
  • 8. Assemble Some Evidence Sales Taxes Taxable Sales Employment Per Capita Income Inflation Population Retail Sales
  • 9. Construct the Alternatives <ul><li>Single-equation regression models </li></ul><ul><li>Multiple-equation regression models </li></ul><ul><li>Causal Forecasting </li></ul>03 <ul><li>Judgmental Forecasting </li></ul>01 <ul><li>Causal land and deductive forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Observational and inductive forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Experiential forecasts </li></ul><ul><li>Trend F orecasting </li></ul>02 <ul><li>Time-series data analysis </li></ul><ul><li>Computer software applications for forecasting </li></ul><ul><li>Proportionate chandge or averaging techniques </li></ul>
  • 10. Select the Criteria <ul><li>Accuracy of the result </li></ul>
  • 11. Project the Outcomes
  • 12. Decision! Average time-series data to develop trends by such techniques as proportionate change Basic averaging-ratio method with exponential smoothing or move to nonlinear regression Extrapolative and causal techniques employ bivariate or multivariate least-squares regression equations
  • 13. Question <ul><li>I f the prediction does not meet the actual annual revenue for MARTA, how can we do ? </li></ul>
  • 14. Define a New Problem <ul><li>Budget deficits and even the level of carry-over reserves have been insufficient </li></ul>
  • 15. Stakeholders Riders 1 2 Appointed MARTA Board 3 Public Secotor Unions 4 Bondholders 5 Bond-rating Agencies
  • 16. Assemble Some Evidence <ul><li>Population Statistics Report </li></ul><ul><li>Riders Geological Distribution Statistics Report </li></ul><ul><li>Years of MARTA Budgets and Audit Reports </li></ul><ul><li>Local Economic Development Research </li></ul><ul><li>Residents Income Survey </li></ul><ul><li>Other Public Transit Operational Experience </li></ul><ul><li>Bond Market Trend Survey </li></ul><ul><li>Legislative Documents Related to Operation of Public Enterprise </li></ul><ul><li>… … </li></ul>
  • 17. Construct the Alternative Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority Act of 1965 allows MARTA to adjust the fares to cover at least 35% operating costs <ul><li>Cut back / Shorten some routes with few riders </li></ul><ul><li>Postpone purchase of new vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce frequency of old device’s update </li></ul><ul><li>Provide more value-added services </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperate with other counties or cities </li></ul>
  • 18. Select the Criteria Effectiveness Efficiency Equity Legislative
  • 19. Project the Outcomes Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares Legislative Equity Efficiency Effectiveness
  • 20. Confront the Tradeoff Pareto Efficiency Cardol-Hicks Standard
  • 21. Decision! Enlarge Incomes Cut Services Raise Fares The Metropolitan Atlanta Rapid Transit Authority Act of 1965 allows MARTA to adjust the fares to cover at least 35% operating costs <ul><li>Cut back / Shorten some routes with few riders </li></ul><ul><li>Postpone purchase of new vehicles </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce frequency of old device’s update </li></ul><ul><li>Provide more value-added services </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperate with other counties or cities </li></ul>√
  • 22. John, Keke and Ken

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