The document analyzes the BJP's prospects in the next Loksabha election based on its performance in 3 previous Karnataka elections. It groups constituencies into 3 categories - Not Good, Fair, and Good - based on the BJP's past position and vote share. It notes that breakaway parties affected the BJP's performance in 15 seats. While consolidation may occur before the national election, the analysis concludes there will likely be no major gains for opposition parties INC or JD(S). It suggests a strong anti-UPA mood could play a major role in the next national election.
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Naresh bharadwaj
1. Analysis of BJP's Karnataka
Results
Naresh Bharadwaj
@nareshbh
naresh.bharadwaj@gmail.com
Prospects in the next Loksabha election
2. Analysis framework
3 elections – 2008, 2009 and 2013
Factors –
Vote share in past elections
Position in past elections
Possible consolidation
Prospects –
Not good
Fair
Good
11. Summary
Breakaways affecting BJP in 15 seats.
Likely consolidation before LS polls.
No major gains for INC or JD(S)
Strong anti-UPA mood and other factors
might play a major role
