A presentation on forex analysis from 6th -10th of August 2012

1. AUGUST 2012
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3. The Eur/Usd and Usd/Jpy opened low and
closed high While Usd/Chf and Gbp/Usd
opened high and closed low last week.
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5. EURUSD
Euro/dollar fell to critical support and low
@1.2133 but made a huge comeback. While
Draghi disappointed markets with no
immediate action, he opened the door to full
QE and is now waiting for Spain to walk
through. Spain took a big step. Is this a
significant positive change in the debt crisis?
Many problems still remain.
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6. Contrary to previous performances, Draghi
was not at his best and the absence of bond
buying from the only factor able to act was
disappointing. Nevertheless, the readiness to
buy bonds without sterilization and the fact
that only Germany opposed the move and not
other northern countries, is definitely worth
noting.
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7. Before acting, internal ECB committees need
to work and more importantly, countries have
to ask for aid. This U-turn is very hard for the
Spanish government, but for a change, they
didn’t reject this option – this is a big step
forward. Will the ECB take the extra step
and help Greece? Perhaps that’s too much to
ask. Weekly Signals: Sell @1.2588 and Buy
@1.2061
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8. GBP/USD
GBP/USD was down almost one cent last
week, as the pair closed at 1.5641. Will be
expecting eight fundamental releases this
week, including Manufacturing Production on
Tuesday and PPI Input on Friday.
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9.  The pound weakened during the week, but
made up for most of those losses following
unexpected strong employment data out of
the US. Economic releases out of the UK were
mixed, and the BOE made no changes to QE
or the key interest rate.
 Weekly Signals: Sell @1.5759 and Buy
@1.5435
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10. USDJPY
The Yen remained unchanged in a week
that saw classical range trading and regular
risk on / risk off movements. Current
Account which will be coming up on
Wednesday and the rate decision are the
Major events this week.
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11.  Last week. weak data was released with an
unexpected drop of 0.1% in Prelim Industrial
Production, A smaller than predicted rise of
1.6% in Household Spending and a
disappointing decline of 0.6% in Average
Cash Earnings.
 The better than expected jobs report in the
US supports the dollar, and the improvement
in Europe certainly lowers the risk flows that
the yen enjoys so much.
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12.  Together with a return of deflation and
intervention, there isn’t much room for falls
in USD/JPY. So buying Usd/Yen this week will
be good for traders.
 Looking at USDJPY.
 This week we will Sell 78.77 and buy @77.68
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13. USDCHF
The Swiss gained some ground against the US
dollar, as USD/CHF closed the week below the
0.970 line, at 0.9701. Highlights of the
upcoming week include the Foreign Currency
Reserves and CPI, both will be coming up on
Tuesday by 8 a.m and 8: 15 am.
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14. The swiss weakened during the week, but
then rebounded, following strong US
employment data late in the week. You may
sell @0.9797 and buy @0.9476
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