Analysis of conclusion in France government report that digital radio not be launched until expiry of a 2- to 3-year moratorium, written by Grant Goddard in May 2011 for Grant Goddard: Radio Blog.

1. FRANCE GOVERNMENT REPORT
RECOMMENDS 2 TO 3 YEAR
"MORATORIUM" BEFORE
LAUNCH OF DIGITAL RADIO
by
GRANT GODDARD
www.grantgoddard.co.uk
May 2011

2. A new report on the introduction of digital terrestrial radio (‘DAB radio’ in the UK) in France has
recommended to the government that the launch should be delayed by two to three years. In
the interim, the French media regulator CSA would be asked to establish a project to
investigate the “overseas experiences” of digital radio, according to the government press
release.
David Kessler, former head of state radio station 'France Culture', was commissioned in June
2010 by the government to produce a strategic analysis of the launch of digital radio in France.
His interim report, published in November 2010 [see my blog], identified the “paradox of DAB
radio – it is a sufficiently attractive technology to be launched successfully, but it is
insufficiently attractive to successfully allow FM broadcasts to cease.”
In the final report, published this week, Kessler said that not all the conditions had been met
from an economic standpoint to permit the widespread launch of digital terrestrial radio. His
report identified the significantly different challenges between digital radio switchover and
digital television switchover:
“An error in logic has probably contributed greatly to making the debate [about digital
radio] opaque rather than transparent. The error came from having planned digital
radio switchover with reference to digital television switchover, which started in 2005
and the success of which has been staggering and immediate, so that the changeover
from analogue to digital TV will be completed throughout the land by 2012. Many
parties imagined that the route to digital opened up by television would be followed by
radio. But this plan was wrong for three reasons.
Firstly, the television market was dominated in 2005 by five channels (TF1, France 2,
France 3, France 5/Arte and M6) that attracted 75% of television viewing. The
transition to a score of free channels was obviously very attractive. However, as will be
France Government Report Recommends 2 To 3 Year "Moratorium" Before Launch Of Digital Radio page 2
©2011 Grant Goddard

3. discussed later, the situation in radio is quite different – the current choice of stations
is one of the richest that exists in the world, after the landscape opened up in the 80s.
Even if the choice is not the same in every region, none of them – some near – are in
a situation where only five major stations dominate the choice.
Second is the difference in receivers. Even if digital radio switchover had been
launched simultaneously with that of television, where the evolution of televisions (flat
screen, HD and now 3D) resulted in a faster replacement of equipment than
anticipated, digital television was accessible without changing the set through the
purchase of a single adaptor at a moderate price. Digital radio switchover requires the
replacement of all receivers, and households have multiple radios and the market is
sluggish. Without doubt, digital radio switchover could re-invigorate the market with a
simple, inexpensive high-end (with screen) radio. At this point, no one can say how
quickly take-up of replacement receivers will happen. Examples overseas –
particularly Britain – demonstrate a relatively slow rate of replacement, and the
different situation in countries where take-up is faster – Korea, Australia – make
comparisons difficult.
The third reason is that the history of television demonstrates that it works through
‘exclusive changes’ where one technology replaces another quickly. Colour television
pushed out black and white television. Digital television is about to push out analogue
television. But experience shows that far from all media work this way. On the
contrary, some go through ‘cumulative change’. Over a short or long period of time,
different technologies co-exist and content is distributed through several technologies.
As Robert Darnton noted about the book, we often forget that the printed word has
long co-existed with the manuscript. From this perspective, the history of radio is the
opposite of television: different transmission systems are cumulative rather than
exclusive. This does not exclude the possibility that, in the long run, some
transmission systems will decline and no longer be used, just as printing marginalised
the manuscript. But what it means is that one cannot plan the launch of digital radio by
imagining that all other transmission systems will be switched off, particularly FM.
Even today, despite the success of FM, Long Wave and Medium Wave transmissions
are still used because they reach a sufficient number of listeners not be switched off
by broadcasters.
In fact, a careful examination of the launch of digital radio in other European countries
shows that a ‘cumulative change’ scenario exists that we must anticipate in France
too. Indeed, the launch of digital radio in other European countries had been
presented as a quick substitute for analogue radio, even though the existing choice of
analogue stations was less than in France, and the choice of digital stations seemed
more attractive and content-rich than offered by analogue. Even if a proportion of
listeners are quickly adopting digital radio, a greater proportion are still sticking with
their traditional radios, with the possible exception of Norway, where analogue switch-
off seems to be seriously considered at present. This leads to a situation in which the
government initially adopts a goal of analogue switch-off but then, given the
impossibility of switch-off, drops or postpones the switch-off date by several years. As
the choice of existing radio stations is particularly substantial in France, it would
appear that this situation is most likely to be repeated if digital radio were to be
launched. Radio station owners are not mistaken. Very few want a quick switch-off of
FM, and some do not want any switch-off.”
These points echo evidence on digital radio switchover in the UK that I had presented to the
House of Lords Select Committee on Communications in January 2010:
“With television, there existed consumer dissatisfaction with the limited choice of
content available from the four or five available analogue terrestrial channels. This was
evidenced by consumer willingness to pay subscriptions for exclusive content
delivered by satellite. Consumer choice has been extended greatly by the Freeview
digital terrestrial channels, many of which are available free, and the required
hardware is low-cost.
France Government Report Recommends 2 To 3 Year "Moratorium" Before Launch Of Digital Radio page 3
©2011 Grant Goddard

4. Ofcom research demonstrates that there is little dissatisfaction with the choice of radio
content available from analogue terrestrial channels, and there is no evidence of
consumer willingness to pay for exclusive radio content. Consequently, the radio
industry has proven unable to offer content on DAB of sufficient appeal to persuade
consumers to purchase relatively high-cost DAB hardware in anywhere near as
substantial numbers as they have purchased Freeview digital television boxes.”
The Kessler document should offer significant food for thought to the British government for its
unworkable plans for DAB radio switchover. Whereas Kessler correctly identified that TV and
radio digital switchover are two very different undertakings, our public servants working on
digital radio policy in the government and in Ofcom have long failed to understand these
differences. The appointment of Ford Ennals as chief executive of Digital Radio UK in 2009, on
the back of his work between 2005 and 2008 managing digital television switchover, should
have been viewed as barely relevant experience to achieve successful digital radio switchover.
Have any of the people managing digital radio switchover for the UK ever actually worked in
the radio industry? At DCMS? No. At Ofcom? No. At Digital Radio UK? No. If, like Kessler,
they had radio sector experience, they would realise that all their speeches and presentations
that repeatedly cite digital TV switchover as the precedent for radio are completely off-target.
Is there any wonder that failure of DAB public policy was inevitable?
[First published by Grant Goddard: Radio Blog as 'FRANCE: Government Report Recommends 2-3 Year "Moratorium"
Before Launch Of Digital Radio', 15 May 2011.]
Grant Goddard is a media analyst / radio specialist / radio consultant with thirty years of
experience in the broadcasting industry, having held senior management and consultancy
roles within the commercial media sector in the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia. Details at
http://www.grantgoddard.co.uk
France Government Report Recommends 2 To 3 Year "Moratorium" Before Launch Of Digital Radio page 4
©2011 Grant Goddard