The Global Earthquake model, GEM and Hannover Re

1. The Global Earthquake Model: broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Vitor Silva
Seismic Risk Coordinator, GEM Foundation, July 2014 -London

2. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
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Working together– collaborative
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Trusted Science –credible
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True Transparency– transparent
Beyond Ourselves – public good

3. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
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Public Partners
International Bodies
PrivatePartners
Engaging the Public and Private sector

4. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Current Public Participants

5. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Current Private Participants

6. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Current Associate Participants

7. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment

8. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment

9. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
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Working together– collaborative
•
Trusted Science –credible
•
True Transparency– transparent
The above framework has guided GEM development during the first working programme

10. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Advancing science through global projects
Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue
Historical Catalogue and Archive
Ground Motion Prediction Equations
Active Faults Database and Tools

11. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Advancing science through global projects
Instrumental Earthquake Catalogue
Historical Catalogue and Archive
Ground Motion Prediction Equations
Active Faults Database and Tools

12. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM –Instrumental Seismic Catalogue

13. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM –Historical Seismic Catalogue

14. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
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Working together– collaborative
•
Trusted Science –credible
•
True Transparency– transparent
GEM –Faulted Earth Database

15. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Advancing science through global projects
Vulnerability Database
Exposure Database
Inventory Data Capture Tools
Building Taxonomy
Earthquake consequences
database

16. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM –Global Exposure Database

17. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM –Vulnerability database

18. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
GEM –Faulted Earth Database

19. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs –Seismic hazard curves

20. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs –Seismic hazard maps

21. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs –Stochastic event sets

22. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs –Seismic hazard disaggregation

23. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Hazard outputs –Single earthquake ground motion field

24. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Risk outputs –Probabilistic loss maps

25. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Risk outputs –Single earthquake loss map
2007 PiscoEarthquake (Mw 8.0)

26. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Risk outputs –Single earthquake collapse distribution

27. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Global hazard assessment

28. The Global Earthquake Model broader horizons for earthquake risk assessment
Global risk assessment

29. OpenQuake in a Reinsurance Context
Ole Hanekop, Group Risk Management -Modelling
Understanding Risk Forum
London, 2 July 2014

30. GEM & Hannover Re
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Participationin a uniqueinternational public-private partnership
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Access toglobal earthquakemodelbasedon latestscience
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Exchange withthescientificcommunity
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Fullmodeltransparency
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Supplement andvalidatecommercialvendormodels
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Strengtheningofriskmanagementprocesses
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Build-upofadditinalin-house expertiseon earthquakerisk
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Improvedservicesforclients
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Extension ofpossibilitiestomodelparametric(re)insurancesolutions
Motivation to participate

31. GEM & Hannover Re
31 Title of presentation
OpenQuake and Datasets
GEM provides
 OpenQuake software and associated products and tools (e.g. Modellers Toolkit)
 Ready to use PSHA models
 Vulnerability and Fragility functions
 Global databases for historical events and consequences
 Support in running OQ and using provided datasets
GEM currently does not provide
Ready to use risk models
GraphicaluserinterfaceforOQ (tobereleasedsoon)

32. OpenQuake @ Hannover Re
32 Title of presentation
Simple Example, Aggregate model for Ecuador
110100100010000 Annual Aggregate Loss Return PeriodAnnual aggregate Loss EC EQ

33. OpenQuake @ Hannover Re
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SHARE seismic source model
 Three different source models in a logic tree
Title of presentation
More complex example, Germany

34. OpenQuake @ Hannover Re
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Soil Conditions Building Codes (DIN 2005)
Title of presentation
Side effects on hazard and vulnerability

35. OpenQuake @ Hannover Re
35 Title of presentation
Exposure distributions and building characteristics

36. Except where otherwise noted, thiswork is licensed under:
creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
Please attribute to the GEM Foundation with a link to - www.globalearthquakemodel.org