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Special report by epic research 30th september 2014
1. DAILY REPORT
30th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
Global markets at a glance
Asian markets were in hesitant mood on Tuesday as inves- tors wondered what China's response would be to civil un- rest in Hong Kong, while the U.S. dollar was on track to post its biggest monthly gain in well over a year. Hang Seng Index shed another 0.9% to its lowest in three months. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan lost 0.5% having already fallen sharply on Monday. Chinese shares have been less troubled, perhaps because news and images of the protests are hard to come by on the mainland. The Shanghai index was flat near a 19-month peak.
Hong Kong democracy protesters defied volleys of tear gas and police baton charges to stand firm in the centre of the global financial hub on Monday, in one of the biggest politi- cal challenges for Beijing since the Tiananmen Square crackdown 25 years ago. Banks in Hong Kong, including HSBC, Citigroup, Bank of China, Standard Chartered and DBS , temporarily shut some branches and advised staff to work from home or go to secondary branches.
Wall Street Update
US stocks ended lower on Monday following protests in Hong Kong that added to worries about Chinese growth and after a disappointing forecast from Ford Motor Co. The Dow Jones Industrial average fell 41.93 points, or 0.25 per- cent, to 17,071.22; the S&P 500 lost 5.05 points, or 0.25 percent, to 1,977.8; and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 6.34 points, or 0.14 percent, to 4,505.85. The benchmark S&P 500 index posted 13 new 52-week highs and 12 new lows. The Nasdaq Composite recorded 40 new highs and 129 new lows.
Previous day Roundup
The market ended volatile session on a flat note. The Sen- sex is down 29.21 points at 26597.11 and the Nifty down 9.95 points at 7958.90. About 1857 shares have advanced, 1088 shares declined and 100 shares were unchanged. IT and pharma stocks were on buyers radar while banks, met- als and FMCG were down.
Index stats
The Market was very volatile in last session. The sartorial indices performed as follow; Consumer Durables [up 170.69Pts], Capital Goods [down 34.40pts], PSU [down 45.86pts], FMCG [down 70.09pts], Realty [down pts], Power [down pts], Auto [down 78.47pts], Healthcare [up 305.54pts], IT [up 194.04pts], Metals [down 129.14pts], TECK [up 87.35pts], Oil& Gas [down 39.05pts].
World Indices
Index
Value
% Change
D J l
17071.22
-0.25
S&P 500
1977.80
-0.25
NASDAQ
4505.85
-0.14
EURO STO
3186.95
-1.01
FTSE 100
6646.60
-0.04
Nikkei 225
16070.90
-1.47
Hong Kong
22898.79
-1.42
Top Gainers
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
SUNPHARMA
836.00
29.40
3.64
TCS
2,774.00
90.00
3.35
GAIL
454.15
10.70
2.41
POWERGRID
140.00
3.00
2.19
HINDALCO
160.50
3.25
2.07
Top Losers
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
JINDALSTEL
176.80
7.15
-3.89
DLF
158.20
4.35
-2.68
KOTAKBANK
1,002.00
22.35
-2.18
TATASTEEL
466.00
8.25
-1.74
COALINDIA
342.70
5.40
-1.55
Stocks at 52 Week’s high
Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
AUROPHARMA
945.45
63.75
7.23
CADILAHC
1,329.05
23.60
1.81
MARICO
296.90
5.10
1.75
Indian Indices
Company
CMP
Change
% Chg
NIFTY
7958.90
-9.95
-0.12
SENSEX
26597.11
-29.21
-0.11
Stocks at 52 Week’s Low
Symbol
Prev. Close
Change
%Chg
- -
RBI Reference Rate
Currency
Rate
Currency
Rate
Rupee- $
61.4273
Yen-100
56.0700
Euro
77.9328
GBP
99.7272
2. DAILY REPORT
30th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
STOCK RECOMMENDATIONS [FUTURE]
1. PFC [FUTURE]
PFC FUTURE is looking weak on charts, short build up has
been seen, we may see more downside, if it sustains be-low
240 levels. We advise selling around 240-242 levels
with strict stop loss of 245 for the targets of 237-234 lev-els.
2. AUROPHARMA [FUTURE]
AUROPHARMA FUTURE is looking strong on charts, long
build up has been seen, we may see more upside, if it sus-tains
above 940 levels. We advise buying around 930-940
levels with strict stop loss of 910 for the targets of 960-
980.
EQUITY CASH & FUTURE
STOCK RECOMMENDATION [CASH]
1. EID PARRY
EID PARRY upside on daily chart. We advise buying around
236-237 level with strict stop loss 232 for the targets 241-
245
MACRO NEWS
RBI Credit Policy will be released today after 11a.m.
India will cut borrowing for the second half of the fiscal
year ending in March and expects to remain on track to
meet its target for the fiscal deficit. The government will
borrow 2.4 trillion rupees ($39.25 billion) in October-
March, less than the 2.48 trillion rupees called for in the
government budget announced in July. India's improved
fiscal stance comes after it cut oil and fertiliser subsidies
following a slump in global crude prices.
Banks tell companies to raise funds abroad on expecta-tions
of US interest rates hike in 2015.
Centre may cap number of subsidized LPG cylinders at 9
to bring down deficit.
Modi announced merger of PIO and Overseas Citizens of
India schemes to facilitate hassle-free travel to the Indian
diaspora.
The government aims to raise 584.25 billion rupees from
sales of shares in state-run companies and minority stakes
in private companies.
Textiles Ministry in talks with SIDBI to fund textile venture
capitalists, and will be launching thirteen new textile
parks.
3. DAILY REPORT
30th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
FUTURE & OPTION
MOST ACTIVE PUT OPTION
Symbol
Op- tion
Type
Strike Price
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
PE
7,900
72
2,40,505
38,15,850
NIFTY
PE
8,000
109.05
1,46,207
34,13,600
NIFTY
PE
7,800
46.5
1,38,156
50,89,350
BANKNIFTY
PE
15,000
129.4
28,753
4,47,150
SBIN
PE
2,400
47
3,251
1,20,250
LT
PE
1,400
20.6
1,120
1,42,000
TCS
PE
2,600
22.75
1,023
1,08,000
RELIANCE
PE
940
20.65
1,392
3,39,750
MOST ACTIVE CALL OPTION
Symbol
Op- tion
Type
Strike Price
LTP
Traded Volume (Contracts)
Open Interest
NIFTY
CE
8,100
69.9
2,06,553
43,50,150
NIFTY
CE
8,200
38.55
1,89,519
51,34,450
NIFTY
CE
8,000
116.7
1,73,099
28,64,600
BANKNIFTY
CE
16,000
148.3
26,447
3,71,075
SBIN
CE
2,500
60
5,028
2,20,125
RELAINCE
CE
960
16
4,825
9,26,000
AUROPHARMA
CE
940
50
2,068
93,000
INFY
CE
4,000
46.6
2,115
2,21,500
FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS
BUY
OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
SELL
No. of
Contracts
Amount in Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in Crores
No. of
Contracts
Amount in
Crores
NET AMOUNT
INDEX FUTURES
36393
1452.05
33969
1352.68
266221
10601.31
99.37
INDEX OPTIONS
271858
10694.64
256683
10172.26
1438671
57182.63
522.38
STOCK FUTURES
44559
1698.46
48943
1843.30
1190994
42563.83
-144.83
STOCK OPTIONS
42336
1585.50
41818
1559.64
36803
1368.52
25.86
TOTAL
502.78
INDICES
R2
R1
PIVOT
S1
S2
NIFTY
8,018.83
7,988.87
7,961.78
7,931.82
7,904.73
BANK NIFTY
15,725.92
15,599.73
15,510.27
15,384.08
15,294.62
STOCKS IN NEWS Strides Acrolab’s board approved its merger with Shasun Pharmaceuticals . IDFC -Signs agreement with real estate funds man- aged by Blackstone HDIL promoters revoke all pledged equity shares SAIL offer for sale (OFS) now likely to take place be- fore Diwali Essar Ports gets shareholders' nod to issue debt in- struments up to USD 1 billion
NIFTY FUTURE
Nifty Future closed in the red in the last trading session. We advise selling around 8060-8070 with strict stop loss 8100 the targets of 8000-7950
4. DAILY REPORT
30th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
COMMODITY MCX
RECOMMENDATIONS
SILVER
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY SILVER DEC ABOVE 39500 TGTS 39700,40000 SL 39200
SELL SILVER DEC BELOW 38950 TGTS 38750,38450 SL 39250
GOLD
TRADING STRATEGY:
BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 27000 TGTS 27080,27180 SL 26920
SELL GOLD OCT BELOW 26750 TGTS 26670,26570 SL 26840
COMMODITY ROUNDUP
The prices of both domestic and international Copper un- der performed as it became clearer that the demand will be very dormant in China. There are two reasons for slow- down, one has been the general seasonal slowdown that occurs in August, and other has been the genuine shift of interests from commodities and a run towards equities. China on the other hand has been facing the situation of lower manufacturing numbers.
MCX Copper has seen a decline of 8.5 percent this year. The start for this metal was at an elevated level with prices at Rs 454.86 per kg on 31 December 2014, while the prices of Copper have now come to levels of Rs 416.41 per kg by the end of September 2014. In coming days the challenge for Copper will be to move beyond Rs 450 per kg. In LME, Copper has seen a decline of 5.7 percent so far this year. The prices were at $ 7298.57 per tonne, at the start of the year, from where they have come down below $ 7000 and are at $ 6880.9 per tonne.
The gold price is expected to languish for the rest of the year and test $1,200. For the year as a whole the price is expected to average $1,270, which compares with the year-to-date average of $1,289. However, this decline may not benefit Indian consumers, as we forecast the rupee to av- erage 61.4 against the dollar this year. This requires the rupee to average 62.3 over the next quarter. In essence, this means we expect the price to be close to Rs 26,000, that is, two per cent below current levels and an ideal level for those who had deferred purchases in the first half. This level could hold through the remainder of the year.
Zinc prices drifted by 0.29% to Rs 139.10 per kg as specula- tors trimmed positions after demand eased in the spot markets. Also, weak trend in other base metals in global markets influenced the sentiment. At MCX zinc for delivery in October shed 40 paise, or 0.29%, to Rs 139.10 per kg in a business turnover of 104 lots. Similarly, the metal for deliv- ery in September edged lower by 35 paise, or 0.25%, to Rs 138.70 per kg in 262 lots.
Lead prices moved down by 0.24% to Rs 126.50 per kg as speculators booked profits amid a weak trend in base met- als overseas. At MCX, lead for delivery in current moved down by 30 paise, or 0.24%, to Rs 126.50 per kg in business turnover of 144 lots.
5. DAILY REPORT
30th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
RECOMMENDATIONS
DHANIYA
BUY DHANIYA OCT ABOVE 12300 TGTS 12330,12380 SL 12250
SELL DHANIYA OCT BELOW 12160 TGTS 12130,12080 SL 12210
GUARSGUM
BUY GUARGUM OCT ABOVE 16350 TGTS 16400,16500 SL 16260
SELL GUARGUM OCT BELOW 16150 TGTS 16100,16000 SL 16240
NCDEX
NCDEX INDICES
Index
Value
% Change
CASTOR SEED
4553
+1.09
CHANA
2761
+0.22
CORIANDER
12262
+3.09
COTTON SEED
1350
-0.30
GAUR SEED
5649
+1.15
JEERA
11000
+3.97
MUSTARDSEED
3632
+0.03
SOYBEAN
3058
-1.07
TURMERIC
6034
+0.23
NCDEX ROUNDUP
The area under Kharif crops is down 2.43% on the year, ac- cording to a latest updatefrom the Ministry of Agriculture. The total sown area as on 26th September, 2014 as perre- ports received from States, stands at 1019.26 lakh hectare as compared to 1044.69 lakhhectare at this time last year. Cotton acreage is up 10% to 1.26.55 lakh hectares but theacreage for other major crops has been mostly disap- pointing. Acreage under oilseeds isdown 8% while that un- der pulses and cereals is down 6.55% and 7% respectively.
Cardamom prices fell by 0.55% to Rs 872 per kg yesterday as speculators booked profits at prevailing higher levels amid subdued demand in the spot market. Adequate stocks position in the physical market on increased arrivals from producing regions also put pressure on cardamom prices. At MCX cardamom for delivery in November declined Rs 4.80, or 0.55% to Rs 872 per kg in business turnover of 105 lots. The spice for delivery in October traded lower by Rs 1.90, or 0.22% to Rs 872 per kg in 184 lots. Besides profit-booking by speculators, weak demand in the spot market mainly influ- enced cardamom prices at futures trade.
Modi announced merger of PIO and Overseas Citizens of India schemes to facilitate hassle-free travel to the Indian diaspora. PIO card holders staying in India on long-term ba- sis will no longer have to report to the local police station. Jeera gained sharply by almost Rs 580 per quintal in the last three days as bargain buying emerged at two and half months low of Rs 10,420 last week. NCDEX futures October delivery ended the day at Rs 11,000, up Rs 420 or 3.97% and the open interest pared 666 tonnes to 4,008 tonnes, indi- cating short covering.
7. DAILY REPORT
30th SEPTEMBER 2014
YOUR MINTVISORY Call us at +91-731-6642300
NEXT WEEK'S U.S. ECONOMIC REPORTS
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
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Disclaimer
TIME (ET)
REPORT
PERIOD
ACTUAL
CONSENSUS FORECAST
PREVIOUS
MONDAY, SEPT. 29
8:30 AM
PERSONAL INCOME
AUG.
0.3%
0.2%
8:30 AM
CONSUMER SPENDING
AUG.
0.4%
-0.1%
8:30 AM
CORE PCE PRICE INDEX
AUG.
0.0%
-0.1%
TUESDAY, SEPT. 30
9:45 AM
CHICAGO PMI
SEPT.
63.4
64.3
10 AM
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX
SEPT.
93.8
92.4
WEDNESDAY, OCT. 01
10 AM
ISM
SEPT.
57.8%
59.0%
10 AM
CONSTRUCTION SPENDING
AUG.
0.1%
1.8%
TBA
MOTOR VEHICLE SALES
SEPT.
16.8 MLN
17.5 MLN
THURSDAY, OCT. 02
8:30 AM
WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS
SEPT. 20
N/A
N/A
10 AM
FACTORY ORDERS
AUG.
-8.0%
10.5%
FRIDAY, OCT. 03
8:30 AM
NONFARM PAYROLLS
SEPT.
218,000
142,000
8:30 AM
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
SEPT.
6.1%
6.1%
10 AM
ISM NONMANUFACTURING
SEPT.
58.5%
59.6%