Uncertainties in Paleoseismic Estimates of Subduction Eathquake Size - Brian ...
Rebuilding the Garden City (Impacts to the Canterbury Built Environment) - John Hare
1. Rebuilding the Garden City
Impacts to the Canterbury Built
Environment
John Hare, Holmes Consulting Group,
Christchurch
2. Outline
1. Brief summary of findings
2. Overview of damage, by building type
3. Summary of outcomes
4. Discussion
5. Some lessons learnt
6. Issues for the recovery
7. Recap conclusions
2
3. Conclusions
• The Christchurch Earthquakes have provided some
valuable lessons on building performance – especially
concrete structures
– More research is required
• Our older building stock needs greater consideration
– A capacity based evaluation only identifies part of the problem
– Our buildings’ vulnerabilities need to be better understood
• Faster action is required to address these issues
– A passive approach is too slow and ineffective
3
4. Conclusions
• Proximity issues should be considered, especially
for critical facilities
• Other hazards must be considered, eg rockfall,
lateral spread
• Training is required to maximise preparedness
– Of engineering profession
– Of the general public
4
5. Damage
• Residential
• Heritage
• Commercial – Low and Medium Rise
• Commercial – High Rise
• Infrastructure
5
6. Damage
• Residential
• Heritage
• Commercial – Low and Medium Rise
• Commercial – High Rise
• Infrastructure
6
78. Immediately following the Feb 22 earthquake
• 185 people dead
– 115 in CTV building
– 18 in PGC building
– 5 through rockfall
– 2 infants at home
– 41 through falling masonry
– 4 related effects, after the quake
• 6,500 injured
• 12,000 homes evacuated immediately
96
79. Demolitions, CBD and suburbs
Partial Demolish Total
Civil Defence 66 241 307
Owner initiated 166 233 399
CER Act s.38/39
issued 198 713 911
Total 430 1,187 1,617
97
80. General Observations - Commercial
• Commercial
– Most modern buildings performed as expected,
with a few exceptions
– Most modern of modern buildings (post-1995)
performed well
– More damage to irregular and older structures
– Unstrengthened/unsecured masonry buildings
essentially destroyed
– Well strengthened masonry buildings performed
moderately well to very well
98
81. Building Performance
• Approx 8,000
commercial
buildings in Chch
• Approx 1200
currently slated
for demolition
– 900 in CBD
– 300 outer
• These numbers
likely to rise
99
88. Context – Built environment
• Settled in mid-1800s
• Construction types
– First buildings in timber from 1840’s
– Stone and brick buildings 1850s to 1935
• 96 Stone masonry = 1/3 of all NZ stone masonry
– RC and Steel from early 1900s
– Most residential construction timber frame
• Seismic design provisions from 1935
– First specific seismic code 1965
– Capacity Design introduced 1976
– Non-specific timber and RM construction 1980s
– Full modern provisions from 1995
106
89. Context – Christchurch building profile
• Commercial Residential
Unreinforced masonry
Reinforced Masonry
Walls and Braced Unstrengthened
Frames Masonry
Strengthened
Masonry
Moment Frames
Timber frame
Holmes Consulting Group (estimate) Beattie (BRANZ)
108
91. Why?
• Ductility and Capacity design – design for
damage
• Ground ‘failure’
– Liquefaction
– Differential settlement
– Tilt up to 1 in 150 acceptable?
• Low cycle fatigue
– How much life is left in that steel?
– Testing showing many buildings have exceeded half
of the reinforcement strain capacity
• Repair costs
– >70% of value - gone
111
92. Why?
• Levels of insurance cover
– Chile 27%
– Mexico 21%
– California 17%
– Italy 14%
– Japan 12-17%
– Turkey 4%
– Haiti 1%
– New Zealand 80%
Source: Swiss Re
112
93. Insurance
• Overall insured losses estimated at
$30B – 3rd largest insurance event of
its kind.
• Process difficult
– Slow settlements
– Communication between clients and
insurers, insurers and reinsurers
• But what in the future?
– Higher cost of insurance
– Tighter conditions
– Less availability
113
94. General Observations - Residential
• Houses performed well structurally
– Light wood-framed construction – no collapses, generally
repairable
• Most failures due to ground performance
• 561,000 tons of silt removed
• 7,860 houses declared ‘red zone’, i.e. Government
buy-back of land, relocate
• 6,315 residential owners agreed to sell to government
so far (as at Dec 2012)
• 10,000 people estimated to have left Christchurch
• Unclear how many coming back, or when
114
96. Repairs
• EQC cover from $10,000-$100,000
– Fletcher EQR
– 31,010 homes repaired to end Jan 2013
– 65,000+ to go…..
• Private Insurers above $100,000
– More than 12,000 homes estimated as major repairs
or rebuild
– Most spread over 12 insurers
116
97. Infrastructure Rebuild
• Progress (Nov 2012)
– Completed 206 projects, totalling $80M
– 88 projects underway, totalling $220M
– Further projects in train for total of $1.5B
– 11 miles of fresh water pipe laid
– 30 miles of wastewater pipe laid
– 2 miles of stormwater pipe laid
– 19 acres of road pavement laid
– 745 miles (of 1006) of wastewater pipe videoed
– 415 miles (of675) of stormwater pipe videoed
• Total cost expected to exceed $5B
117
98. Preparedness
• Training of engineers
• Strengthening of Buildings - DO IT!!!!
It is too late after the earthquake
– Strengthen EPBs – 67% if possible
– Secure non-structural elements
– Re-evaluate critical weakness – more later
• Proximity effects
• Communication to the public
– What to do
– Expectations for buildings
– Self-reliance
119
110. Residential
• Availability of land
– Valuations based on 2008
values
– New sections inflated in price
• Insurance
– Insurers still not re-entering
market with confidence
• Sale of properties
– Only to certain buyers
– Repairs still to be completed
limiting sales
• Standards for repair and
rebuild
132
112. Commercial
• Prior to earthquake:
– 4M sq ft of commercial office in CBD
– 2.75M sq ft needed
– Class A office space about $30/sq ft
– Class B office space about $22-25/sq ft
• Post earthquake
– Many tenants relocated out of CBD to office parks
on leases of 4 years plus
– Some businesses relocated out of city
– Current demand estimate 1.8M sq ft
– New building rentals $45/sq ft (class A)
134
113. Planning
• City plan rewrite
– Height limits?
– Urban planning
considerations
• Land ownership
– Mainly small,
closely held
ownership
– Amalgamation of
titles?
135
115. New Building Design
• Owners’ expectations
– Make it like a hospital in
Wellington!
– Low damage design
– Existing Use rights
– Individual owner vs
institutional developer
• Building Code updates?
137
116. Building Evaluation & Repair
• Detailed Engineering
Evaluations
– For all non-residential
structures
– Approx 2000 submitted,
1000 approved
• Temporary stability
concerns
• Strengthening design
loads
138
117. Detailed Engineering Evaluation Procedure – What is it?
• Developed by Engineering Advisory Group
(to DBH)
• Process of inspection, review and reporting
– Qualitative Procedure
– Quantitative Procedure – not always required
• Documents available at www.sesoc.org.nz
– Engineers briefed at CSG meetings
– Process is an overlay to work completed
already, not necessarily additional
139
118. Canterbury Earthquakes Royal Commission
(CERC)
• Seven volumes of report,
covering:
– Seismicity and soils
– Performance of CBD
buildings
– Low damage design
technology
– Earthquake Prone Buildings
– CTV collapse
– Roles and responsibilities
– Summary and
recommendations
140
119. NZ Wide – Earthquake Prone Buildings
• Consultation process
underway following
CERC report
• Dilemma
– %NBS?
– Or something else?
141
120. EPB Myth No 1 – Capacity Matters
• Current criteria for EPB – 33%NBS
• But what causes failure of buildings in
earthquake?
– Refer DEEs and IEPs….
142
123. NZ Wide – Codes and Standards
• Following CERC MBIE Updated
code
– When? Next 2-4 years?
– Submissions?
– Long process……
• SESOC
– Practice Note
– Design Of Conventional Structural Systems
Following The Canterbury Earthquakes
– Available for use now
– Uptake?
145
124. Conclusions
• The Christchurch Earthquakes have provided some valuable lessons
on building performance – especially concrete structures
– More research is required
• Our older building stock needs greater consideration
– A capacity based evaluation only identifies part of the problem
– Our buildings’ vulnerabilities need to be better understood
• Faster action is required to address these issues
– A passive approach is too slow and ineffective
• Proximity issues should be considered, especially for critical facilities
• Other hazards must be considered, eg rockfall, lateral spread
• Training is required to maximise preparedness
– Of engineering profession
– Of the general public
146
Editor's Notes
The Christchurch Earthquakes Workshop, Seattle, Feb 12, 2013 John Hare, Holmes Consulting Group, Christchurch
The Christchurch Earthquakes Workshop, Seattle, Feb 12, 2013 John Hare, Holmes Consulting Group, Christchurch These are all over Christchurch, particularly in older suburbs. House on right is historic homestead close to epicentre. Ironically, many chimneys no longer operative due to Chch clean air regulations, btu had not been removed. Many houses with this sort fo damage otherwise ok.
The Christchurch Earthquakes Workshop, Seattle, Feb 12, 2013 John Hare, Holmes Consulting Group, Christchurch S38/39 Initiated by: CERA – 774 Owner – 137 Process: Structural engineers assessment of each building within the cordon and subsequent report on findings (‘scored” according to risk of collapse/public safety/potential occupancy risk, etc) Report and decision made under CER Act communicated to owner about what is to be done Owner selects option to owner-initiate or CERA to manage Initially CERA took the lead in determining demolition of dangerous buildings, but as time progressed, it has often been a building owner’s insurer’s engineers that have alerted CERA to buildings damaged to below one-third Building Code. Process: Structural engineers assessment of each building within the cordon and subsequent report on findings (‘scored” according to risk of collapse/public safety/potential occupancy risk, etc) Report and decision made under CER Act communicated to owner about what is to be done Owner selects option to owner-initiate or CERA to manage Initially CERA took the lead in determining demolition of dangerous buildings, but as time progressed, it has often been a building owner’s insurer’s engineers that have alerted CERA to buildings damaged to below one-third Building Code.
The Christchurch Earthquakes Workshop, Seattle, Feb 12, 2013 John Hare, Holmes Consulting Group, Christchurch