Your SlideShare is downloading. ×
Real estatemarketreport 1q12
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in...5
×

Thanks for flagging this SlideShare!

Oops! An error has occurred.

×
Saving this for later? Get the SlideShare app to save on your phone or tablet. Read anywhere, anytime – even offline.
Text the download link to your phone
Standard text messaging rates apply

Real estatemarketreport 1q12

1,248
views

Published on

marketin report

marketin report

Published in: Real Estate, Business

0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total Views
1,248
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
5
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

Report content
Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. Q1 2012 | the knowledgeresearch & forecast reportpHILIPPINE PROPERTY MARKET Executive Summary Economy While the average GDP growth across the ASEAN countries slowed to 4,8% from 6.9%, the Philippine economy manageably grew at 3.7% last year. Despite the fact that government spending on infrastructure was belatedly pushed last year, and while fishing production and exports have consistently declined, the resilient performance in the services sector, and the strong consumer spending, compensated for last year’s sluggish growth. Outlook by most multilateral institution on the Philippine economy is to grow 3.5% to 4.0% this year. Office Office space options are currently narrow across Metro Manila mainly due to the strong demand coming from the O&O industry. At present, IT-related and BPO firms, with immediate, sizeable requirements, have alternatively resorted to plug & play options either for normal operations or as an incubation space. In 1Q 2012, the vacancy rate in the Makati CBD grew slightly by 0.3% to 4.43%, yet remained within the sub-4% level over the last two quarters. The increase in vacancy is mainly attributed to Grade B offices which grew by around 1.02% to 4.83% breaching the 3% level of last year. residentialmarket indicators In Metro Manila, supply remains considerably high across condominiums with some 33,000 units completed and over 50,000 units launched last year. Completion grew by over 48% annually OFFICE while some 40,000 units more are expected towards the end of 2013. Premium vacancy rate in Makati consistently evened out at the sub-6% level since the second quarter of last year. RESIDENTIAL Meanwhile, three-bedroom rental rates went up in the first quarter by over 4% to an average of P660 per sq m. rETAIL retail At present, there is about 5.2 million sq m of leasable retail space, 2.11% higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Vacancy rates, in both super-regional and regional malls across Metro Manila slightly increased by .07% yet occupancy rates remain at the 99% level. In an aim to further increase foot traffic and slacken competition, major mall developers are currently turning away from the traditional mall configuration, and are presently geared towards improving the shopping experience through the integration of new technologies, attractions and natural parks.www.colliers.com
  • 2. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMIC INDICATORS 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Gross National Product 3.5 4.8 6.1 6.0 6.5 8.4 2.60 Gross Domestic Product 4.8 5.2 6.6 4.2 1.1 7.6 3.70 Personal Consumption Expenditure 4.4 4.2 4.6 3.7 2.3 3.4 6.10 Government Expenditure 2.1 10.6 6.9 0.3 10.9 4.0 -0.70 Capital Formation 2.96% -15.12% -0.47% 23.36% -8.68% 31.61% 11.10% Exports 5.0 12.6 6.7 -2.7 -7.8 21.0 -3.80 Imports 3.3 3.5 1.7 1.6 -8.1 22.5 1.90 Agriculture 2.2 3.6 4.7 3.2 -0.7 -0.2 2.60 Industry 4.2 4.6 5.8 4.8 -1.9 11.6 1.90 Services 5.8 6.0 7.6 4.0 3.4 7.2 5.00 Average Inflation (Full Year %) 7.6 6.2 2.8 9.3 3.2 6.65 4.80 Budget Deficit (Billion Pesos) 146.8 62.2 12.4 68.1 298.5 314.4 197.7 P: US$ (Average) % 55.0 51.3 46.1 44.7 47.6 45.10 43.31 Average 91-Day T-Bill Rates % 6.4% 5.3% 3.4% 5.2% 4.0% 3.70% 1.37 * At constant prices (based on 2000 level) ECONOMY While the average GDP growth across the ASEAN countries slowed to 4,8% from 6.9%, the Philippine economy manageably grew at 3.7% last year. Though at a meagre growth rate, the country was able to withstand the weak global demand derived from external economic tribulations. Despite the fact that government spending on infrastructure was belatedly pushed last year, and while fishing production and exports have consistently declined, the resilient performance in the services sector, and the strong consumer spending, compensated for last year’s sluggish growth. Specifically, services under the Real Estate sub-sector grew annually by 17.0%, while Renting and Other Business Activities increased by 9.6%. Last year, the services sector contributed more than 40% of the country’s gross national income which reached over P7.7 trillion (+2.6%). Meanwhile, consumer spending increased by 6.1% in 4Q 2011. OFW remittances which posted over US$20.1 billion are expected to continually bolster consumption. The same increased over a billion in the last two years. Furthermore, inflation rate further contracted to 2.7% pushing lending rates at its lowest regime from 5%-8%. Outlook by most multilateral institution on the Philippine economy is to grow 3.5% to 4.0% this year. OFW Remittances 25,000 20,000 In Million US Dollars 15,000 10,000 5,000 - 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas * As of January 2012 p. 2 | Colliers International
  • 3. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGELAND VALUESAs of 1Q 2012, implied land values in the Makati CBD appreciated by 2.26% to an average of P284,130 per sq m. This is expected to increaseby 6% in the next twelve months and may reach P300,000 per sq m, higher than its historic peak in early 2009. In Ortigas Center, land valuesgrew by 1.5% to P130,783 per sq m and are expected to grow by 4% by the end of the first quarter next year. The highest growth was registeredin Fort Bonfiacio at 28% year-on-year (YoY) driven by the continuous interest in developable land and properties. Currently, it is pegged atP189,000 per sq m and is projected to grow by 17% over the next twelve months. Makati CBD, Ortigas & Fort Bonifacio Average Land Values 500,000 400,000 pesos per square meter 300,000 200,000 100,000 - 1Q97 1Q98 1Q99 1Q00 1Q01 1Q02 1Q03 1Q04 1Q05 1Q06 1Q07 1Q08 1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12F 1Q13F Makati CBD Ortigas Ctr BGC Source: Colliers International Philippines Research COMPARATIVE LAND VALUES PESO / SQ M 1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YoY) MAKATI CBD 271,501 - 296,759 266,177 - 289,521 2.26 290,218-315,800 6.64 ORTIGAS CENTER 97,952 - 163,614 96,504 - 161,196 1.50 101,870-170,519 4.00 BGC 154,500 - 225,145 150,000 - 220,730 2.40 191,215-253,200 17.00 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research LICENSES TO SELL Overall residential licenses issued by the HLURB contracted for the third consecutive year. Last year, about 164,487 licenses were registered, 13% lower than in 2010. The socialised and economic housing segments consistently dropped by 32 and 30% to 35,682 and 45,207 units, respectively. On a lesser magnitude, issuances on mid-income housing numbered 32,300 units, slightly down by -0.7%. Meanwhile, across the high-rise residential sector, licences continually increased to about 51,298 units, a growth of over 30% compared to 2010. While developers continue to favour high-density projects, the presence of Grade B condominiums continues to augment the number of issued licenses. In 2011, over 50,000 units were launched in Metro Manila. This gives a major indication that licenses in this segment may continue to rise over the remainder of the year. As of February of this year, some of the projects which recently obtained licenses are The Chelsea Residences (704 units) in Alabang, Sorrento Oasis (690 units) in Pasig, 8 Adriatico (922 units) and One Archers Place (655 units) in Manila. p. 3 | Colliers International
  • 4. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE HLURB LICENCES TO SELL UNITS JAN - DEC JAN - DEC % CHANGE YOY 2011 2010 Socialised Housing 35,682 52,602 -32.2 Low-Cost Housing 45,207 64,537 -30.0 Mid-Income Housing 32,300 32,541 -0.7 High-Rise Residential 51,298 38,936 31.7 Commercial Condominium 786 2,622 -70.0 Farm Lot 444 225 97.3 Memorial Park 136,174 116,645 16.7 Industrial Subdivision 30 35 -14.3 Commercial Subdivision 495 374 32.4 Total (Philippines) 304,427 310,527 -2.0 Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board HLURB Licenses 160,000 140,000 140,000 120,000 120,000 100,000 100,000 units 80,000 units 80,000 60,000 60,000 40,000 40,000 20,000 20,000 - - 1Q99 4Q99 3Q00 2Q01 1Q02 4Q02 3Q03 2Q04 1Q05 4Q05 3Q06 2Q07 1Q08 4Q08 3Q09 2Q10 1Q11 4Q11 Quarterly Approvals Moving 12-Month Average (RHS) Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory BoardOFFICE SECTORSupplyOffice space options are currently narrow across Metro Manila mainly due to the strong demand coming from the O&O industry. Consequently,developers continue to catch up by bringing in roughly over 1.2 million sq m of new office space in the span of two years. At present, IT-relatedand BPO firms, with immediate, sizeable requirements, have alternatively resorted to plug & play options either for normal operations or as anincubation space. Furthermore, based on inquiries recently received by Colliers, several interests in areas outside Metro Manila consistentlysurface. These particularly include Cebu, Davao and Ilo-ilo which subsequently are key expansion sites among major developers.Meanwhile in the Makati CBD, supply remains limited. Delayed for completion by over a quarter, Zuelling Building (57,000 sq m), the only officedue for delivery in the Makati CBD this year, is set to be operational in the next couple of months. Alphaland Makati Tower (38,400 sq m), andthe Glorietta 1 and 2 BPO buildings (27,800 sq m each) are the only new office spaces to become available in 2013. Furthermore, all over MetroManila, supply stock in net usable space increased marginally in 1Q 2012 to 5.8 million sq m. This includes Science Hub 2 (19,000 sq m) inMcKinley Hill and the SM Megamall Car Park Extension (13,000 sq m) in Mandaluyong. Techno Plaza Two (35,800 sq m) and A Place, previouslynamed One Coral Way, (7,500 sq m), are expected to be available in the early part of the second quarter. p. 4 | Colliers International
  • 5. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE Makati CBD vs. Metro Manila Office Stock Makati Vs, Metro Manila Stock 8,000,000 7,000,000 600,000 600,000 7,000,000 6,000,000 500,000 500,000 6,000,000 5,000,000 400,000 400,000 5,000,000 in sq.m. in sq.m. 4,000,000 in sq.m. in sq.m. 4,000,000 300,000 300,000 3,000,000 3,000,000 200,000 200,000 2,000,000 2,000,000 1,000,000 100,000 100,000 1,000,000 - - 0 0 2011F 2012F 2013F 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F Metro Manila Stock Makati CBD YoY Change (RHS) Metro Manila Stock Makati CBD YoY Change (RHS) Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchOFFICE SECTORDemandIn 1Q 2012, the vacancy rate in the Makati CBD grew slightly by 0.3% to 4.43%, yet remained within the sub-4% level over the last two quarters.The increase is mainly attributed to Grade B offices which grew by around 1.02% to 4.83% ̶ breaching the 3% level of last year. On the otherhand, vacancies contracted across the Premium and Grade A segments, down by 2.14% and 0.52% to 3.38% and 3.63%, respectively. Take-uprates are expected to drop this year by 26% to 27,800 sq m, mainly attributed to the limited office space and a negligible increase in supply. Makati CBD Office Supply and Demand 270,000 20% 220,000 15% 170,000 10% in sq.m. 120,000 70,000 5% 20,000 0% (30,000) (80,000) -5% 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F New Supply During Year Take-Up During Year Vacancy at Year End (RHS) Source: Colliers International Philippines Research p. 5 | Colliers International
  • 6. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE MAKATI CBD COMPARATIVE OFFICE VACANCY RATES (%) 1Q 12 4Q 11 1Q 2013F PREMIUM 3.38 5.52 GRADE A 3.63 4.15 GRADE B & BELOW 4.83 3.81 ALL GRADES 4.42 4.08 4.00 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research FORECAST OFFICE NEW SUPPLY LOCATION End-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 MAKATI CBD 2,699,696 - 80,353 101,719 - ORTIGAS 1,126,018 19,332 - 87,110 - FORT BONIFACIO 485,693 106,579 200,349 219,091 137,214 EASTWOOD 252,979 39,840 35,765 - - ALABANG 234,305 31,247 - 33,560 - OTHER LOCATIONS* 685,362 81,007 203,282 76,163 178,052 TOTAL 5,484,053 278,005 519,749 517,643 - Source: Colliers International Philippines Research *Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong, and Quezon CityRentsPremium rental rates in the Makati CBD consistently increased quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) by 2.8% to about P875 per sq m on average. This isprojected to grow by 6% over the next twelve months and will exceed the P900 per sq m level last seen in early 2007. Meanwhile, both GradeA and B rents grew marginally by 0.22 and 0.42% to P698 per sq m and P483 per sq m, respectively. Running at an average of P720 per sqm, Grade A rental rates in Bonifacio Global City have continuously surpassed that of Makati since 2Q 2011. While most firms remain wedded toMakati mainly due to familiarity and brand, Grade A rents are expected to grow by 7.5% in 1Q 2013 and will eventually level off to that of BGC atP750 per sq m. COMPARATIVE OFFICE RENTAL RATES (PESO / SQM / MONTH) MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA) 1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q13F % CHANGE (YOY) PREMIUM 825 - 922 788 - 912 2.8 860 - 990 5.9 GRADE A 500 - 895 497 - 895 0.2 575 - 925 7.5 GRADE B 455 - 510 451 - 510 0.4 480 - 545 2.1 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research p. 6 | Colliers International
  • 7. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE NOTABLE LEASING DEALS Building Area Size (sq m) Net Lima Taguig 8,364.00 Science Hub Tower 2 Taguig 4,250.00 Insular Life Corporate Center Alabang 3,200.00 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research Makati CBD Office Capital ValuesCapital Values 150,000In 1Q 2013, premium building capital valuescontinually went up to their current P114,840 130,000per sq m (+5.54%). As the completion of 110,000 in peso per sq.m.Zuellig Tower approaches, average values areexpected to grow around 7.0%, the highest 90,000quarterly increase that could transpire in the 70,000business district. To a much lesser degree,capital values on the Grade A and B segments 50,000grew by 1.52 and 1.35% to P82,680 and 30,000P55,745 per sq m, respectively. Both 3Q12F 1Q13F 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12segments are expected to grow modestly by3% to 5% in the next twelve months Premium Grade A Grade B/B- Source: Colliers International Philippines Research COMPARATIVE OFFICE CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQM) MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA) 1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY) PREMIUM 104,569 - 125,113 100,443 - 117,190 5.5 119,886 - 131,188 9.3 GRADE A 70,091 - 95,267 69,933 - 92,950 1.5 72,697 - 100,846 5.0 GRADE B 48,060 - 63,430 47,000 - 63,000 1.4 49,200 - 65,910 3.3 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research p. 7 | Colliers International
  • 8. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIALRESIDENTIAL SECTORSupplyIn Metro Manila, supply remains considerably high across condominiums with some 33,000 units completed and over 50,000 units launched lastyear. Completion grew by over 48% annually while some 40,000 units more are expected towards the end of 2013. Contrary to over a decadeago, the low lending rates, easy access to credit and affordable payment schemes, made intrinsic components for high-take up rates mainly inthe smaller-unit segment. Moreover, supply has largely been augmented by the strong presence of high density projects across the metro area,where the primary inventory mix favours studio and one-bedroom units.In the Makati CBD, the gap between the small unit sizes (studio and one-bedroom) and the large unit sizes (two-bedroom and above) started towiden in 2002 and is expected to grow continuously over the next three years. With the 15,500-unit stock at present, the majority or roughly60% belongs to the 30 to 60 sq m range as against 40% in the 70 to 230 sq m range. Consequently, stock is still expected to grow annually by15% in the span of two years driven by projects in the Grade A and B sectors. Meanwhile, some of the condominiums that have started turningover are Eton Residences Greenbelt (302 units), Eton Parkview Greenbelt (236 units), and One Pacific Place (240 units). Makati CBD Residential Stock 20,000 25% 18,000 20% 16,000 14,000 15% 12,000 in units 10,000 10% 8,000 5% 6,000 4,000 0% 2,000 - -5% 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12F 1Q13F Residential Stock YoY Change (RHS) Source: Colliers International Philippines Research FORECAST RESIDENTIAL NEW SUPPLY LOCATION (cumulative) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TOTAL MAKATI CBD 13,076 1,659 2,204 2,105 473 19,517 ROCKWELL 2,382 1,336 - - 441 4,159 FORT BONIFACIO 10,709 1,365 4,819 1,684 1276 19,853 ORTIGAS 7,481 2,389 672 262 792 11,596 EASTWOOD 5,735 - 558 977 278 7,548 TOTAL 39,383 6,749 8,253 5,028 3,260 62,673 Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchDemandIn Makati, landed property remains the preferred lease option in the expatriate market. However, due to the narrow options across exclusivevillages, demand alternatively settles on premium condominiums. Despite this, the lack of larger units has consistently evened out premiumvacancies at the sub-6% level since the second quarter of last year. On the other hand, vacancy across other grades continues to increase byslightly over 2% quarterly and is currently at 12.4%. Specifically, Grade A vacancy rose by 2% to 10.44% in 1Q 2012. Meanwhile, at 14.62%,vacancy in Grade B condominiums remains the highest across all segments. p. 8 | Colliers International
  • 9. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL Makati CBD Residential Vacancy 18% 18% 16% 16% 14% 14% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 6% 6% 4% 4% 2% 2% 1Q98 3Q98 1Q99 3Q99 1Q00 3Q00 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12F 1Q98 4Q98 3Q99 2Q00 1Q01 4Q01 3Q02 2Q03 1Q04 4Q04 3Q05 2Q06 1Q07 4Q07 3Q08 2Q09 1Q10 4Q10 3Q11 2Q12F Source: Colliers International Philippines Research MAKATI CBD COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES (%) 1Q 12 4Q 11 1Q 13F LUXURY 6.0 6.2 OTHERS 12.4 10.9 ALL GRADES 11.7 10.5 11.0 Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchRentsLuxury three-bedroom rental rates in both the Makati CBD and Bonfiacio Global City went up in the first quarter by over 4% to an average ofP660 per sq m and P685 per sq m, respectively. The gap between the rental rates of the two districts is expected to narrow over the next twelvemonths as the completion of Raffles Residences in Makati may cause upward pressure on the average premium rates. In particular, this bringsa projected annual growth of over 8%, higher than the 6% in Bonfiacio Global City; this will level out at the P710 to P715 per sq m range. InRockwell Center, rates grew modestly at 1.30% to an average of P780 per sq m and will breach the P800 per sq m mark by the end of this year. Makati CBD, Rockwell, Bonifacio Global City Prime 3BR Units Residential Rents 900 900 800 800 700 in peso per sq.m. per month 700 in peso per sq.m. per month 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200200 100100 - - 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12F 3Q12F 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12F 1Q13F Makati CBD Makati CBD Rockwell Rockwell Bonifacio Global City Bonifacio Global City Source: Colliers International Philippines Research p. 9 | Colliers International
  • 10. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUM COMPARATIVE LUXURY 3BR RENTAL RATES 1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY) MAKATI CBD 455 - 860 415 - 840 4.78 502 - 919 8.06 ROCKWELL 665 - 890 660 - 875 1.30 696 - 936 4.97 BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 555 - 812 543 - 768 4.27 577 - 877 6.33 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL LEASE RATES THREE-BEDROOM PREMIUM, SEMI-FURNISHED MINIMUM AVERAGE MAXIMUM Apartment Ridge / Roxas Triangle Rental Range * 90,000 145,000 250,000 Average Size ** 210 280 330 Salcedo Village Rental Range 60,000 93,000 135,000 Average Size 170 190 330 Legaspi Village Rental Range 65,000 190,000 250,000 Average Size 120 210 280 Rockwell Rental Range 150,000 200,000 300,000 Average Size 200 260 330 Fort Bonifacio Rental Range 60,000 150,000 280,000 Average Size 130 200 300 * in pesos per month Source: Colliers International Philippines Research ** in square metersCapital ValuesAverage capital values for a premium three-bedroom unit in the Makati CBD surpassed that of Bonifacio Global City over the last two quarters.The prior’s capital values reached P114,000 per sq m last quarter or an annual growth of 10%, higher than the 8% growth with the latter’sP112,900 per sq m. On a quarterly basis, the Makati CBD capital values increased by 4.8% and will eventually exceed the P120,000 per sq mlevel by 1Q 2013. Meanwhile, in Rockwell Center, the completion of one Rockwell East pushed capital values to rise by 5.2% to an average ofP140,000 per sq m. Despite the dearth in supply, outlook on secondary prices is expected to grow by 9.9% in the next twelve months. p. 10 | Colliers International
  • 11. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | HOTEL & LEISURE Makati CBD Residential Capital Values 140,000 120,000 130,000 110,000 120,000 in peso per sq.m. in peso per sq.m. 100,000 110,000 100,000 90,000 90,000 80,000 80,000 70,000 70,000 60,000 60,000 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12F 1Q01 3Q01 1Q02 3Q02 1Q03 3Q03 1Q04 3Q04 1Q05 3Q05 1Q06 3Q06 1Q07 3Q07 1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11F 1Q12F Makati CBD Rockwell Bonifacio Global City Makati CBD Rockwell Bonifacio Global City Source: Colliers International Philippines Research METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUM COMPARATIVE LUXURY 3BR CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQ M) 1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY) MAKATI CBD 78,000 - 150,121 74,230 - 144,200 4.8 89,454 - 157,301 8.2 ROCKWELL 98,421 - 140,551 94,069 - 133,041 5.2 103,122 - 159,493 9.9 BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 90,658 - 135,125 89,212 - 127,533 4.2 92,208 - 146,815 5.9 Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchRETAILSupplyOver the last six months, Metro Manila retail stock improved, brought about by the newly completed retail developments. At present, there isabout 5.2 million sq m of leasable retail space, 2.11% higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Supply mainly increased across super-regionalmalls by 3.67% or an additional leasable space of over 100,000 sq m driven by the completion of Lucky China Town Mall in Binondo Manila.Meanwhile, some other developments which were completed over the last two quarters include BHS Central East Block in Fort Bonfacio whichcovers 10,000 sq m and Two Shopping Center in Pasay which covers 50,000 sq m.In an aim to further increase foot traffic and slacken competition, major mall developers are currently turning away from the traditional mallconfiguration, and are presently geared towards improving the shopping experience through the integration of new technologies, attractions andnatural parks. The introduction of 3D devices in cinemas and the inclusion of pocket gardens and theme parks evidently became a major trendespecially across major entertainment districts.These are most likely to increase as retail developers plan major facelifts and continuous retrofitting over the long haul. Filinvest’s Festival Mallis expected to undergo a revamp which includes a new wing of about 50% of its leasable area. Besides the new open spaces, the mall will utiliseits existing creek as a major waterway attraction. At a separate location, the company’s seafront SRP in Cebu will similarly use its beachsideambiance as the retail’s water feature. Likewise, SM Baguio is also set for an upgrade. Apart from an additional space of some 76,000 sq m, itis geared to obtain LEED certification followed by its integration of new open-air retail spaces, roof gardens, and landscapes of native plantmaterials. Meanwhile, Ayala Land is continually banking on its cultural districts emphasized by its upcoming retail development at the Santa Anaracetrack property.Besides the on-site upgrades and improvements, expansion plans remains persistent across geographic reach. Robinsons Land has recentlyopened its 30th mall in Calasio, Pangasinan. Besides this, the developer is also set to open Robinsons Place Palawan and Robinsons Magnoliathis year. In Bacolod, SM Prime ramps up its expansion with the SM City Bacolod annex which will offer an additional space of over 80,000 sqm towards the end of 2014. Beyond regional level, SM Tianjin (530,000 sq m), branded as the world’s largest freestanding shopping centre, isset to be completed by the end of 2013. Moreover, Ayala Land plans to reopen Glorietta 1 and 2 towards the third or fourth quarter of this year.After the Abreeza Mall in Davao, the developer is also on track with its Centrio Mall (44,000 sq m), which is set to open by October. p. 11 | Colliers International
  • 12. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | HOTEL & LEISUREDemandVacancy rates, in both super-regional and regional malls across Metro Manila slightly increased by .07% or a total vacant space of about 42,000sq m, lower than the 45,000 sq m of vacant space registered in the third quarter of last year. The average vacant space for super-regional andregional malls is roughly around 2,400 sq m and 600 sq m, respectively. Despite the numerous renovations of clothing and apparel storescoupled with the consistent retrofitting of malls, the occupancy rate remains at the 99% level driven by the strong demand from food and diningoptions and the growing presence of international brands. The outlook on vacancy is that it will remain stable while fewer households are seento increase their expenses on goods and services according to the recent survey conducted by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas. METRO MANILA RETAIL VACANCY RATE (%) 4Q 11 1Q 12 SUPER-REGIONAL 1.04 1.09 REGIONAL 0.65 0.75 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research RETAIL STOCK METRO MANILA (SQ M) 1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY) SUPER-REGIONAL 3,051,353 2,943,353 3.67 3,051,353 0.00 REGIONAL 1,115,378 1,115,378 0.00 1,115,378 0.00 DISTRICT / NEIGHBOURHOOD 1,055,734 1,055,734 0.00 1,117,734 5.87 ALL LEVELS 5,222,465 5,114,465 2.11 5,284,465 1.19 Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchRentsRental rates in Ayala Center slightly increased by 0.2% to an average of P1,220 per sq m. Likewise, rental rates in Ortigas Center marginallyimproved by 0.6% to about P1,077 per sq m. Despite the perceived increase in fuel prices and eventually in the inflation rate, the confidenceindex improved, from -20.6 to -14.7% in the first quarter of this year. Rents may grow modestly by 2 - 3% in the next twelve months. COMPARATIVE EFFECTIVE RETAIL RENTS (PESOS / SQ M / MONTH) 1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY) AYALA CENTER 1,220 1,218 0.2 1,258 3.1 ORTIGAS 1,077 1,071 0.6 1,097 1.9 Source: Colliers International Philippines Research p. 12 | Colliers International
  • 13. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | HOTEL & LEISURE Makati CBD Retail Rent Ayala Center 1,350 8% 1,250 7% 1,150 6% Php/ sq m/ month 1,050 5% 950 4% 850 3% 750 2% 650 1% 550 0% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F (Makati) Monthly Rent (Makati) YoY Increase (RHS) Source: Colliers International Philippines Research Ortigas Center Retail Rent Ortigas Centre 1,150 4% 4% 1,050 3% 950 Php/ sq m / m onth 3% 850 2% 2% 750 1% 650 1% 550 0% 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12F 3Q12F 4Q12F 1Q13F (Ortigas) Monthly Rent (Ortigas) YoY Increase (RHS) Source: Colliers International Philippines ResearchSpending IndicatorsShort by some 3,500 units, total car sales fell by almost 16% in the first two months of this year to 18,977 units. The latest data from the Chamberof Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines Inc. (CAMPI) shows that sales of passenger cars and commercial vehicles registered 33% and7% drops to 5,299 and 13,678 units, respectively. However, on a monthly basis, car sales grew by about 29% to 10,861 units – a slight indicationof recovery and normalisation of the industry which was stalled from the disrupted production in Japan and Thailand. Furthermore, the industryis expected to improve this year as supply becomes gradually stable over the next few months. p. 13 | Colliers International
  • 14. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | AUTOMOTIVE 522 offices in 62 countries on 6 continents Quarterly Vehicle Sales United States: 147 offices Canada: 37 offices Latin America: 19 offices 50,000 40% Asia Pacific: 201 offices 45,000 30% EMEA: 118 offices 40,000 35,000 20% • $1.8 billion in annual revenue 30,000 • 1.25 billion square feet under management 25,000 10% • Over 12,300 professionals worldwide 20,000 0% 15,000 10,000 Colliers International -10% 5,000 Philippines - -20% 10F Tower 2 RCBC Plaza Ayala Avenue, Makati City 1Q04 2Q04 3Q04 4Q04 1Q05 2Q05 3Q05 4Q05 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 Philippines TEL +632 888 9988 Car Sales YoY Change (RHS) Source: Chamber of Automotive Manufacturers of the Philippines FAX +632 845 2312 www.colliers.com Karlo Pobre Research Analyst Consultancy and Valuation Services Main +632 888 9988 ext.4030 Fax +632 845 2612 Email Karlo.Pobre@colliers.com David A. Young Managing Director, Philippines Main +632 888 9988 FAX +632 845 2312 Email David.a.Young@colliers.com Copyright © 2011 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reason- able effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report.www.colliers.com

×