1. Q1 2012 | the knowledge
research & forecast report
pHILIPPINE PROPERTY MARKET
Executive Summary
Economy
While the average GDP growth across the ASEAN countries slowed to 4,8% from 6.9%, the
Philippine economy manageably grew at 3.7% last year. Despite the fact that government spending
on infrastructure was belatedly pushed last year, and while fishing production and exports have
consistently declined, the resilient performance in the services sector, and the strong consumer
spending, compensated for last year’s sluggish growth. Outlook by most multilateral institution on
the Philippine economy is to grow 3.5% to 4.0% this year.
Office
Office space options are currently narrow across Metro Manila mainly due to the strong demand
coming from the O&O industry. At present, IT-related and BPO firms, with immediate, sizeable
requirements, have alternatively resorted to plug & play options either for normal operations or
as an incubation space. In 1Q 2012, the vacancy rate in the Makati CBD grew slightly by 0.3% to
4.43%, yet remained within the sub-4% level over the last two quarters. The increase in vacancy
is mainly attributed to Grade B offices which grew by around 1.02% to 4.83% breaching the 3%
level of last year.
residential
market indicators In Metro Manila, supply remains considerably high across condominiums with some 33,000 units
completed and over 50,000 units launched last year. Completion grew by over 48% annually
OFFICE while some 40,000 units more are expected towards the end of 2013. Premium vacancy rate
in Makati consistently evened out at the sub-6% level since the second quarter of last year.
RESIDENTIAL Meanwhile, three-bedroom rental rates went up in the first quarter by over 4% to an average of
P660 per sq m.
rETAIL
retail
At present, there is about 5.2 million sq m of leasable retail space, 2.11% higher than in the fourth
quarter of last year. Vacancy rates, in both super-regional and regional malls across Metro Manila
slightly increased by .07% yet occupancy rates remain at the 99% level. In an aim to further
increase foot traffic and slacken competition, major mall developers are currently turning away
from the traditional mall configuration, and are presently geared towards improving the shopping
experience through the integration of new technologies, attractions and natural parks.
www.colliers.com
2. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Gross National Product 3.5 4.8 6.1 6.0 6.5 8.4 2.60
Gross Domestic Product 4.8 5.2 6.6 4.2 1.1 7.6 3.70
Personal Consumption Expenditure 4.4 4.2 4.6 3.7 2.3 3.4 6.10
Government Expenditure 2.1 10.6 6.9 0.3 10.9 4.0 -0.70
Capital Formation 2.96% -15.12% -0.47% 23.36% -8.68% 31.61% 11.10%
Exports 5.0 12.6 6.7 -2.7 -7.8 21.0 -3.80
Imports 3.3 3.5 1.7 1.6 -8.1 22.5 1.90
Agriculture 2.2 3.6 4.7 3.2 -0.7 -0.2 2.60
Industry 4.2 4.6 5.8 4.8 -1.9 11.6 1.90
Services 5.8 6.0 7.6 4.0 3.4 7.2 5.00
Average Inflation (Full Year %) 7.6 6.2 2.8 9.3 3.2 6.65 4.80
Budget Deficit (Billion Pesos) 146.8 62.2 12.4 68.1 298.5 314.4 197.7
P: US$ (Average) % 55.0 51.3 46.1 44.7 47.6 45.10 43.31
Average 91-Day T-Bill Rates % 6.4% 5.3% 3.4% 5.2% 4.0% 3.70% 1.37
* At constant prices (based on 2000 level)
ECONOMY
While the average GDP growth across the ASEAN countries slowed to 4,8% from 6.9%, the Philippine economy manageably grew at 3.7% last
year. Though at a meagre growth rate, the country was able to withstand the weak global demand derived from external economic tribulations.
Despite the fact that government spending on infrastructure was belatedly pushed last year, and while fishing production and exports have
consistently declined, the resilient performance in the services sector, and the strong consumer spending, compensated for last year’s sluggish
growth. Specifically, services under the Real Estate sub-sector grew annually by 17.0%, while Renting and Other Business Activities increased
by 9.6%. Last year, the services sector contributed more than 40% of the country’s gross national income which reached over P7.7 trillion
(+2.6%). Meanwhile, consumer spending increased by 6.1% in 4Q 2011. OFW remittances which posted over US$20.1 billion are expected to
continually bolster consumption. The same increased over a billion in the last two years. Furthermore, inflation rate further contracted to 2.7%
pushing lending rates at its lowest regime from 5%-8%. Outlook by most multilateral institution on the Philippine economy is to grow 3.5% to
4.0% this year.
OFW Remittances
25,000
20,000
In Million US Dollars
15,000
10,000
5,000
-
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas
* As of January 2012
p. 2 | Colliers International
3. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE
LAND VALUES
As of 1Q 2012, implied land values in the Makati CBD appreciated by 2.26% to an average of P284,130 per sq m. This is expected to increase
by 6% in the next twelve months and may reach P300,000 per sq m, higher than its historic peak in early 2009. In Ortigas Center, land values
grew by 1.5% to P130,783 per sq m and are expected to grow by 4% by the end of the first quarter next year. The highest growth was registered
in Fort Bonfiacio at 28% year-on-year (YoY) driven by the continuous interest in developable land and properties. Currently, it is pegged at
P189,000 per sq m and is projected to grow by 17% over the next twelve months.
Makati CBD, Ortigas & Fort Bonifacio Average Land Values
500,000
400,000
pesos per square meter
300,000
200,000
100,000
-
1Q97
1Q98
1Q99
1Q00
1Q01
1Q02
1Q03
1Q04
1Q05
1Q06
1Q07
1Q08
1Q09
1Q10
1Q11
1Q12F
1Q13F
Makati CBD Ortigas Ctr BGC
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
COMPARATIVE LAND VALUES
PESO / SQ M 1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QoQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YoY)
MAKATI CBD 271,501 - 296,759 266,177 - 289,521 2.26 290,218-315,800 6.64
ORTIGAS CENTER 97,952 - 163,614 96,504 - 161,196 1.50 101,870-170,519 4.00
BGC 154,500 - 225,145 150,000 - 220,730 2.40 191,215-253,200 17.00
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
LICENSES TO SELL
Overall residential licenses issued by the HLURB contracted for the third consecutive year. Last year, about 164,487 licenses were registered,
13% lower than in 2010. The socialised and economic housing segments consistently dropped by 32 and 30% to 35,682 and 45,207 units,
respectively. On a lesser magnitude, issuances on mid-income housing numbered 32,300 units, slightly down by -0.7%.
Meanwhile, across the high-rise residential sector, licences continually increased to about 51,298 units, a growth of over 30% compared to
2010. While developers continue to favour high-density projects, the presence of Grade B condominiums continues to augment the number
of issued licenses. In 2011, over 50,000 units were launched in Metro Manila. This gives a major indication that licenses in this segment may
continue to rise over the remainder of the year. As of February of this year, some of the projects which recently obtained licenses are The
Chelsea Residences (704 units) in Alabang, Sorrento Oasis (690 units) in Pasig, 8 Adriatico (922 units) and One Archers Place (655 units)
in Manila.
p. 3 | Colliers International
4. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE
HLURB LICENCES TO SELL
UNITS JAN - DEC JAN - DEC % CHANGE YOY
2011 2010
Socialised Housing 35,682 52,602 -32.2
Low-Cost Housing 45,207 64,537 -30.0
Mid-Income Housing 32,300 32,541 -0.7
High-Rise Residential 51,298 38,936 31.7
Commercial Condominium 786 2,622 -70.0
Farm Lot 444 225 97.3
Memorial Park 136,174 116,645 16.7
Industrial Subdivision 30 35 -14.3
Commercial Subdivision 495 374 32.4
Total (Philippines) 304,427 310,527 -2.0
Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
HLURB Licenses
160,000 140,000
140,000 120,000
120,000
100,000
100,000
units
80,000
units
80,000
60,000
60,000
40,000
40,000
20,000 20,000
- -
1Q99
4Q99
3Q00
2Q01
1Q02
4Q02
3Q03
2Q04
1Q05
4Q05
3Q06
2Q07
1Q08
4Q08
3Q09
2Q10
1Q11
4Q11
Quarterly Approvals Moving 12-Month Average (RHS)
Source: Housing and Land Use Regulatory Board
OFFICE SECTOR
Supply
Office space options are currently narrow across Metro Manila mainly due to the strong demand coming from the O&O industry. Consequently,
developers continue to catch up by bringing in roughly over 1.2 million sq m of new office space in the span of two years. At present, IT-related
and BPO firms, with immediate, sizeable requirements, have alternatively resorted to plug & play options either for normal operations or as an
incubation space. Furthermore, based on inquiries recently received by Colliers, several interests in areas outside Metro Manila consistently
surface. These particularly include Cebu, Davao and Ilo-ilo which subsequently are key expansion sites among major developers.
Meanwhile in the Makati CBD, supply remains limited. Delayed for completion by over a quarter, Zuelling Building (57,000 sq m), the only office
due for delivery in the Makati CBD this year, is set to be operational in the next couple of months. Alphaland Makati Tower (38,400 sq m), and
the Glorietta 1 and 2 BPO buildings (27,800 sq m each) are the only new office spaces to become available in 2013. Furthermore, all over Metro
Manila, supply stock in net usable space increased marginally in 1Q 2012 to 5.8 million sq m. This includes Science Hub 2 (19,000 sq m) in
McKinley Hill and the SM Megamall Car Park Extension (13,000 sq m) in Mandaluyong. Techno Plaza Two (35,800 sq m) and A Place, previously
named One Coral Way, (7,500 sq m), are expected to be available in the early part of the second quarter.
p. 4 | Colliers International
5. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE
Makati CBD vs. Metro Manila Office Stock
Makati Vs, Metro Manila Stock
8,000,000
7,000,000 600,000
600,000
7,000,000
6,000,000 500,000
500,000
6,000,000
5,000,000
400,000
400,000
5,000,000
in sq.m.
in sq.m.
4,000,000
in sq.m.
in sq.m.
4,000,000 300,000
300,000
3,000,000
3,000,000
200,000
200,000
2,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000 100,000
100,000
1,000,000
-
- 0 0
2011F
2012F
2013F
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
2013F
Metro Manila Stock Makati CBD YoY Change (RHS)
Metro Manila Stock Makati CBD YoY Change (RHS)
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
OFFICE SECTOR
Demand
In 1Q 2012, the vacancy rate in the Makati CBD grew slightly by 0.3% to 4.43%, yet remained within the sub-4% level over the last two quarters.
The increase is mainly attributed to Grade B offices which grew by around 1.02% to 4.83% ̶ breaching the 3% level of last year. On the other
hand, vacancies contracted across the Premium and Grade A segments, down by 2.14% and 0.52% to 3.38% and 3.63%, respectively. Take-up
rates are expected to drop this year by 26% to 27,800 sq m, mainly attributed to the limited office space and a negligible increase in supply.
Makati CBD Office Supply and Demand
270,000 20%
220,000
15%
170,000
10%
in sq.m.
120,000
70,000
5%
20,000
0%
(30,000)
(80,000) -5%
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012F
2013F
New Supply During Year Take-Up During Year Vacancy at Year End (RHS)
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
p. 5 | Colliers International
6. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE
MAKATI CBD COMPARATIVE OFFICE VACANCY RATES (%)
1Q 12 4Q 11 1Q 2013F
PREMIUM 3.38 5.52
GRADE A 3.63 4.15
GRADE B & BELOW 4.83 3.81
ALL GRADES 4.42 4.08 4.00
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
FORECAST OFFICE NEW SUPPLY
LOCATION End-2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
MAKATI CBD 2,699,696 - 80,353 101,719 -
ORTIGAS 1,126,018 19,332 - 87,110 -
FORT BONIFACIO 485,693 106,579 200,349 219,091 137,214
EASTWOOD 252,979 39,840 35,765 - -
ALABANG 234,305 31,247 - 33,560 -
OTHER LOCATIONS* 685,362 81,007 203,282 76,163 178,052
TOTAL 5,484,053 278,005 519,749 517,643 -
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
*Manila, Pasay, Mandaluyong, and Quezon City
Rents
Premium rental rates in the Makati CBD consistently increased quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) by 2.8% to about P875 per sq m on average. This is
projected to grow by 6% over the next twelve months and will exceed the P900 per sq m level last seen in early 2007. Meanwhile, both Grade
A and B rents grew marginally by 0.22 and 0.42% to P698 per sq m and P483 per sq m, respectively. Running at an average of P720 per sq
m, Grade A rental rates in Bonifacio Global City have continuously surpassed that of Makati since 2Q 2011. While most firms remain wedded to
Makati mainly due to familiarity and brand, Grade A rents are expected to grow by 7.5% in 1Q 2013 and will eventually level off to that of BGC at
P750 per sq m.
COMPARATIVE OFFICE RENTAL RATES (PESO / SQM / MONTH)
MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA)
1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q13F % CHANGE (YOY)
PREMIUM 825 - 922 788 - 912 2.8 860 - 990 5.9
GRADE A 500 - 895 497 - 895 0.2 575 - 925 7.5
GRADE B 455 - 510 451 - 510 0.4 480 - 545 2.1
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
p. 6 | Colliers International
7. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | OFFICE
NOTABLE LEASING DEALS
Building Area Size (sq m)
Net Lima Taguig 8,364.00
Science Hub Tower 2 Taguig 4,250.00
Insular Life Corporate Center Alabang 3,200.00
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Makati CBD Office Capital Values
Capital Values
150,000
In 1Q 2013, premium building capital values
continually went up to their current P114,840 130,000
per sq m (+5.54%). As the completion of 110,000
in peso per sq.m.
Zuellig Tower approaches, average values are
expected to grow around 7.0%, the highest 90,000
quarterly increase that could transpire in the
70,000
business district. To a much lesser degree,
capital values on the Grade A and B segments 50,000
grew by 1.52 and 1.35% to P82,680 and
30,000
P55,745 per sq m, respectively. Both
3Q12F
1Q13F
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
segments are expected to grow modestly by
3% to 5% in the next twelve months Premium Grade A Grade B/B-
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
COMPARATIVE OFFICE CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQM)
MAKATI CBD (BASED ON NET USEABLE AREA)
1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY)
PREMIUM 104,569 - 125,113 100,443 - 117,190 5.5 119,886 - 131,188 9.3
GRADE A 70,091 - 95,267 69,933 - 92,950 1.5 72,697 - 100,846 5.0
GRADE B 48,060 - 63,430 47,000 - 63,000 1.4 49,200 - 65,910 3.3
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
p. 7 | Colliers International
8. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR
Supply
In Metro Manila, supply remains considerably high across condominiums with some 33,000 units completed and over 50,000 units launched last
year. Completion grew by over 48% annually while some 40,000 units more are expected towards the end of 2013. Contrary to over a decade
ago, the low lending rates, easy access to credit and affordable payment schemes, made intrinsic components for high-take up rates mainly in
the smaller-unit segment. Moreover, supply has largely been augmented by the strong presence of high density projects across the metro area,
where the primary inventory mix favours studio and one-bedroom units.
In the Makati CBD, the gap between the small unit sizes (studio and one-bedroom) and the large unit sizes (two-bedroom and above) started to
widen in 2002 and is expected to grow continuously over the next three years. With the 15,500-unit stock at present, the majority or roughly
60% belongs to the 30 to 60 sq m range as against 40% in the 70 to 230 sq m range. Consequently, stock is still expected to grow annually by
15% in the span of two years driven by projects in the Grade A and B sectors. Meanwhile, some of the condominiums that have started turning
over are Eton Residences Greenbelt (302 units), Eton Parkview Greenbelt (236 units), and One Pacific Place (240 units).
Makati CBD Residential Stock
20,000 25%
18,000
20%
16,000
14,000
15%
12,000
in units
10,000 10%
8,000
5%
6,000
4,000
0%
2,000
- -5%
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12F
1Q13F
Residential Stock YoY Change (RHS)
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
FORECAST
RESIDENTIAL NEW SUPPLY
LOCATION (cumulative) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TOTAL
MAKATI CBD 13,076 1,659 2,204 2,105 473 19,517
ROCKWELL 2,382 1,336 - - 441 4,159
FORT BONIFACIO 10,709 1,365 4,819 1,684 1276 19,853
ORTIGAS 7,481 2,389 672 262 792 11,596
EASTWOOD 5,735 - 558 977 278 7,548
TOTAL 39,383 6,749 8,253 5,028 3,260 62,673
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Demand
In Makati, landed property remains the preferred lease option in the expatriate market. However, due to the narrow options across exclusive
villages, demand alternatively settles on premium condominiums. Despite this, the lack of larger units has consistently evened out premium
vacancies at the sub-6% level since the second quarter of last year. On the other hand, vacancy across other grades continues to increase by
slightly over 2% quarterly and is currently at 12.4%. Specifically, Grade A vacancy rose by 2% to 10.44% in 1Q 2012. Meanwhile, at 14.62%,
vacancy in Grade B condominiums remains the highest across all segments.
p. 8 | Colliers International
9. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL
Makati CBD Residential Vacancy
18%
18%
16%
16%
14%
14%
12%
12%
10%
10%
8%
8%
6%
6%
4%
4%
2%
2%
1Q98
3Q98
1Q99
3Q99
1Q00
3Q00
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12F
1Q98
4Q98
3Q99
2Q00
1Q01
4Q01
3Q02
2Q03
1Q04
4Q04
3Q05
2Q06
1Q07
4Q07
3Q08
2Q09
1Q10
4Q10
3Q11
2Q12F
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
MAKATI CBD
COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL VACANCY RATES (%)
1Q 12 4Q 11 1Q 13F
LUXURY 6.0 6.2
OTHERS 12.4 10.9
ALL GRADES 11.7 10.5 11.0
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
Rents
Luxury three-bedroom rental rates in both the Makati CBD and Bonfiacio Global City went up in the first quarter by over 4% to an average of
P660 per sq m and P685 per sq m, respectively. The gap between the rental rates of the two districts is expected to narrow over the next twelve
months as the completion of Raffles Residences in Makati may cause upward pressure on the average premium rates. In particular, this brings
a projected annual growth of over 8%, higher than the 6% in Bonfiacio Global City; this will level out at the P710 to P715 per sq m range. In
Rockwell Center, rates grew modestly at 1.30% to an average of P780 per sq m and will breach the P800 per sq m mark by the end of this year.
Makati CBD, Rockwell, Bonifacio Global City
Prime 3BR Units Residential Rents
900
900
800
800
700
in peso per sq.m. per month
700
in peso per sq.m. per month
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200200
100100
- -
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12F
3Q12F
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12F
1Q13F
Makati CBD
Makati CBD Rockwell
Rockwell Bonifacio Global City
Bonifacio Global City
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
p. 9 | Colliers International
10. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL
METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUM
COMPARATIVE LUXURY 3BR RENTAL RATES
1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY)
MAKATI CBD 455 - 860 415 - 840 4.78 502 - 919 8.06
ROCKWELL 665 - 890 660 - 875 1.30 696 - 936 4.97
BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 555 - 812 543 - 768 4.27 577 - 877 6.33
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
COMPARATIVE RESIDENTIAL LEASE RATES
THREE-BEDROOM PREMIUM, SEMI-FURNISHED
MINIMUM AVERAGE MAXIMUM
Apartment Ridge / Roxas Triangle
Rental Range * 90,000 145,000 250,000
Average Size ** 210 280 330
Salcedo Village
Rental Range 60,000 93,000 135,000
Average Size 170 190 330
Legaspi Village
Rental Range 65,000 190,000 250,000
Average Size 120 210 280
Rockwell
Rental Range 150,000 200,000 300,000
Average Size 200 260 330
Fort Bonifacio
Rental Range 60,000 150,000 280,000
Average Size 130 200 300
* in pesos per month Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
** in square meters
Capital Values
Average capital values for a premium three-bedroom unit in the Makati CBD surpassed that of Bonifacio Global City over the last two quarters.
The prior’s capital values reached P114,000 per sq m last quarter or an annual growth of 10%, higher than the 8% growth with the latter’s
P112,900 per sq m. On a quarterly basis, the Makati CBD capital values increased by 4.8% and will eventually exceed the P120,000 per sq m
level by 1Q 2013. Meanwhile, in Rockwell Center, the completion of one Rockwell East pushed capital values to rise by 5.2% to an average of
P140,000 per sq m. Despite the dearth in supply, outlook on secondary prices is expected to grow by 9.9% in the next twelve months.
p. 10 | Colliers International
11. PHILIPPINES | 1Q 2012 | RESIDENTIAL | HOTEL & LEISURE
Makati CBD Residential Capital Values
140,000
120,000
130,000
110,000
120,000
in peso per sq.m.
in peso per sq.m.
100,000
110,000
100,000
90,000
90,000
80,000
80,000
70,000
70,000
60,000
60,000
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11
1Q12
3Q12F
1Q01
3Q01
1Q02
3Q02
1Q03
3Q03
1Q04
3Q04
1Q05
3Q05
1Q06
3Q06
1Q07
3Q07
1Q08
3Q08
1Q09
3Q09
1Q10
3Q10
1Q11
3Q11F
1Q12F
Makati CBD Rockwell Bonifacio Global City
Makati CBD Rockwell Bonifacio Global City
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
METRO MANILA RESIDENTIAL CONDOMINIUM
COMPARATIVE LUXURY 3BR CAPITAL VALUES (PESOS / SQ M)
1Q 12 4Q 11 % CHANGE (QOQ) 1Q 13F % CHANGE (YOY)
MAKATI CBD 78,000 - 150,121 74,230 - 144,200 4.8 89,454 - 157,301 8.2
ROCKWELL 98,421 - 140,551 94,069 - 133,041 5.2 103,122 - 159,493 9.9
BONIFACIO GLOBAL CITY 90,658 - 135,125 89,212 - 127,533 4.2 92,208 - 146,815 5.9
Source: Colliers International Philippines Research
RETAIL
Supply
Over the last six months, Metro Manila retail stock improved, brought about by the newly completed retail developments. At present, there is
about 5.2 million sq m of leasable retail space, 2.11% higher than in the fourth quarter of last year. Supply mainly increased across super-regional
malls by 3.67% or an additional leasable space of over 100,000 sq m driven by the completion of Lucky China Town Mall in Binondo Manila.
Meanwhile, some other developments which were completed over the last two quarters include BHS Central East Block in Fort Bonfacio which
covers 10,000 sq m and Two Shopping Center in Pasay which covers 50,000 sq m.
In an aim to further increase foot traffic and slacken competition, major mall developers are currently turning away from the traditional mall
configuration, and are presently geared towards improving the shopping experience through the integration of new technologies, attractions and
natural parks. The introduction of 3D devices in cinemas and the inclusion of pocket gardens and theme parks evidently became a major trend
especially across major entertainment districts.
These are most likely to increase as retail developers plan major facelifts and continuous retrofitting over the long haul. Filinvest’s Festival Mall
is expected to undergo a revamp which includes a new wing of about 50% of its leasable area. Besides the new open spaces, the mall will utilise
its existing creek as a major waterway attraction. At a separate location, the company’s seafront SRP in Cebu will similarly use its beachside
ambiance as the retail’s water feature. Likewise, SM Baguio is also set for an upgrade. Apart from an additional space of some 76,000 sq m, it
is geared to obtain LEED certification followed by its integration of new open-air retail spaces, roof gardens, and landscapes of native plant
materials. Meanwhile, Ayala Land is continually banking on its cultural districts emphasized by its upcoming retail development at the Santa Ana
racetrack property.
Besides the on-site upgrades and improvements, expansion plans remains persistent across geographic reach. Robinsons Land has recently
opened its 30th mall in Calasio, Pangasinan. Besides this, the developer is also set to open Robinsons Place Palawan and Robinsons Magnolia
this year. In Bacolod, SM Prime ramps up its expansion with the SM City Bacolod annex which will offer an additional space of over 80,000 sq
m towards the end of 2014. Beyond regional level, SM Tianjin (530,000 sq m), branded as the world’s largest freestanding shopping centre, is
set to be completed by the end of 2013. Moreover, Ayala Land plans to reopen Glorietta 1 and 2 towards the third or fourth quarter of this year.
After the Abreeza Mall in Davao, the developer is also on track with its Centrio Mall (44,000 sq m), which is set to open by October.
p. 11 | Colliers International