Talk given by David Wood to the inaugural MoMoWales event, in Cardiff, 13th May 2013: Anticipating the decisive trendsin mobile technology, product and user expectations in the next 2 - 3 years

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Anticipating the decisive trends
in mobile technology, product and user expectations
in the next 2 - 3 years
David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2
http://dw2blog.com/
Chair, London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists
Intelligence for profound change
Technology for Humanity+
Slideshare.NET / DeltaWisdom

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
It’s hard to predict the future
Source: Newsweek, January 2011

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Newspaper ad revenue
http://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html
?

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Collapse of newspaper ad revenue
http://mjperry.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/freefall-adjusted-for-inflation-print.html

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
A world of converging technology
Are
impacted &
transformed

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Collisions and collapses
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/hmv-collapse-live-blog-follow-1534816

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Collisions and collapses
http://www.digitaltrends.com/home-theater/blockbuster-uk-administration/

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Kindle books vs. physical books
www.theverge.com/2012/9/6/3298533/amazon-kindle-event-september-6th-video-watch
E-books leapfrog
physical books at Amazon
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
A world of converging technology
Are
impacted &
enhanced

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
A world of converging technology
Are impacted
& transformed
Are impacted
& enhanced
?
See the steamrollers coming
Be agile and strong enough
to turn the steamroller to
your advantage

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Predicting tablet computers?
27 January, 2010
“8 Things That Suck About the iPad”
http://gizmodo.com/5458382/8-things-
that-suck-about-the-ipad
1. Big, Ugly Bezel
2. No Multitasking
3. No Cameras
4. Touch Keyboard
5. No HDMI Out
6. The Name “iPad”
7. No Flash
8. Adapters, Adapters, Adapters
(“…You need an adapter for USB for god’s sake”)
9. It’s Not Widescreen
10. Doesn’t Support T-Mobile 3G
(“it uses microSIMs that literally no one else uses”)
11. A Closed App Ecosystem.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/iPad
http://dw2blog.com/2010/01/28/the-ipad-more-for-less/

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
The reality of tablet computers
Apple Now Most Valuable Company in History 23 October, 2012
“Apple sold their 100 millionth
iPad two weeks ago”
“We sold more iPads in the June
quarter than any PC maker sold of
their entire line-up”
Market-cap > $620 billion
>4 years to sell 100M iPhones
<3 years to sell 100M iPads
www.engadget.com/2012/10/23/apple-ipad-mini-liveblog/
www.forbes.com/sites/benzingainsights/2012/08/21/apple-now-most-valuable-company-in-history/

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Predicting tablet computers?
http://joyreactor.com/post/300138
Bill Gates introduces Tablet PC.
No one cares.
Steve Jobs introduces the iPad.
The world pisses itself like an
excited dog.
Steve Ballmer introduces Surface.
People accuse them of stealing
the idea from Apple.

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Predicting the impact of technology
“Books will soon be obsolete in schools”
“It is possible to teach every branch of human
knowledge with the motion picture”
“Our school system will be completely changed
inside of ten years”
July 1913, The New York Dramatic Mirror
Thomas Alva Edison
http://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/02/15/books-obsolete/
http://edison.rutgers.edu/taephren.htm

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
“Our school system will be completely changed
inside of ten years”
Book: The One World Schoolhouse: Education Reimagined by Salman Khan
• First YouTube video uploaded: 2006
• Year founded: 2008
• Videos: ~4070
• Videos watched: 250M+
• Unique visitors in March 2013: 5.3M
• Exercises completed: 1B+ (>2M per day)
• Number of employees: 38
A not-for-profit with the goal of…
providing a free world-class education
for anyone anywhere
https://www.khanacademy.org/about
Predicting the impact of technology

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Progress by combination
• Technologies enabling You Tube explosion
– Proliferation of Internet users
– Fast Internet access (wifi, broadband, 3G+)
– Ubiquitous cameras (including in smartphones)
– Easy-to-use video editing tools
– Cheap storage and fast processing
Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/
• Over 1 billion unique users visit YouTube each month
• Over 4 billion hours of video watched each month
• People watch one billion views a day on YouTube mobile
• 72 hours of video are uploaded to YouTube every minute
• In 2011, YouTube had more than 1 trillion views
– or around 140 views for every person on Earth
www.youtube.com/t/press_statistics

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Progress by combination
• Technologies enabling Kindle explosion
– Cheap storage
– Low energy screens
– High-speed “Whisper net” wireless distribution
– Huge catalog of books available to purchase
Michell Zappa: http://envisioningtech.com/
+ Innovative business model

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Geoffrey Moore’s Law
Laggards,
sceptics
Customers want
technology and
features
Customers want
complete solutions, reliability,
and convenience
Early
adopters,
visionariesInnovators,
technology
enthusiasts
THECHASM
Early
majority
Late
majority
Can accept poor
usability
Won’t accept poor
usability
Ready to walk a
solitary path
Requires social
validation

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Unexpected leadership
Purchased by Facebook in April 2012
With 13 employees
And 100 million registered users
For approx $1 billion in cash and stock
Launched in October 2010
Sociable
Usable
Integrative

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Predicting convergence (1998)

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
• Increasingly affordable, increasingly smart mobile phones
• More CPU, more data, more network bandwidth, lower cost
• Converging & delivering more and more utility, usably
• Colour, Cameras, Rich Messaging, Browsing, Social Networks, Games,
Maps, Augmented Reality, Buying & Selling
• Used by more and more people, worldwide
• Generating more and more business
• And disrupting more and more business (winners and losers)
Convergence in the last decade
2000-2010-…
“Smartphones for all”

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
A disruptive new wave of convergence
of embedded software
“Smartphone technology everywhere”
Convergence in this decade
2000-2010-…
“Smartphones for all”
2011-2015...
2000-2010-…
“Smartphones for all”

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Technology whose improvement has been driven by
the smartphone revolution…
Roaming, multiple
kinds of networks
Wireless
communications
Data storage –
local and on the
secure cloud
Streaming wireless
multimedia
Graphics display –
small, intuitive UI
Applications:
Dynamic
reprogramming
Sensors:
GPS, motion, etc
Mobile Internet
Low power
…combined together, with domain-specific technology,
in new and interesting ways...
Smartphone technology embedded everywhere

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
“Feature phones” / “Touch phones” / “Super phones”
Tablets / Slates
Smart, connected cars
In Vehicle Infotainment (IVI)
Consumer electronics:
cameras, eReaders, toys...
Industrial automation
(smart connected robots)
Mobile medical devices
Wearable computers:
uniforms, watches, spectacles
Connected homes:
Smart TVs, Heating, Security
Smart digital signs
Smart meters and grids
Smart micro-bots
(and nano-bots…)
Your suggestions here!
Smartphone technology embedded everywhere

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
The connected home(?)
Another
ginger beer,
please Hal
I’m sorry David,
I can’t do that
The bathroom scale
and the hall mirror
are reporting
disturbing flab
anomalies…
Based on a cartoon by Jeff MacNelly

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
The connected hotel
• The Aloft Hotel (in Thailand) is set up so that a smartphone is access key for lift & room
– Instead of a key-card, a Samsung Galaxy S2 provided to guests on check-in
– Conveniently has a local SIM (for reduced cost lower data roaming)
• It doubles as a remote control for TV and “mood music”
• It also controls the rooms lighting, the curtains, thermostat, and the “do not disturb sign”
• The phone contains apps for ordering room service, concierge advice, etc
• Uses NFC and other wireless comms (Bluetooth & WiFi)
Technology is provided by Fingi – http://www.fingi.com/index.php
BBC Click video at http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JWqlDgbEmKw

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2226545/Nicole-Scherzinger-makes-technology-sexy-wows-UKs-Twitter-dress-4G-launch.html
Wearable computing:
Clothing with built-in LCDs
“Twitter
dress”

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
“Basis” health-monitoring watch
• 3D Accelerometer – detects even the smallest movement
• Optical Blood Flow Sensor – detects heart rate
• Body Temperature Monitor – skin surface temperature
• Ambient Temp Monitor – boost accuracy of caloric calculations
• Galvanic Skin Response – the intensity of skin’s moisture output
www.dcrainmaker.com/2011/11/walking-down-street-where-blue-dot-on.html
www.mybasis.com

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Smart belt improves your posture
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324235104578241801065110288.html
“We watch your back”
“The LUMOback sensor sends gentle vibrations
when you slouch backwards with your lower
back, reminding you to sit or stand up straight”
“Using the latest BT technology,
LUMOback tracks your movements
wirelessly and gives you feedback
through an iPhone, iPod, or iPad app”

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
• Miniature sensors
• Imaging & scanning
• 3D manufacturing
• Personalised genomics
• Synthetic biology
• Electronic medical records
• Ubiquitous smartphones
• Communications facilities
• Next gen social networks
• Huge computing power
• Expert decision systems
• Online medical training
http://CreativeDestructionOfMedicine.com/
“Technology super-convergence”
http://atlanticmeetspacific.wordpress.com/2013/03/07/eric-topol-at-the-altantic-meets-the-pacific/
Eric Topol MD
Radically improving healthcare

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Radically improving healthcare
“The best solution is to get rid of doctors and
teachers and let your computers do the work,
24/7 and with consistent quality”
“Machines will replace 80 percent of doctors”
Vinod Khosla
Sun Microsystems co-founder
renowned Silicon Valley investor
“Do We Need Doctors Or Algorithms?”
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-09/04/doctors-replaced-with-machines
http://techcrunch.com/2012/01/10/doctors-or-algorithms/

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/
Technological unemployment?

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
http://singularityhub.com/2013/04/19/chinese-restaurant-owner-says-robot-noodle-maker-doing-a-good-job/
Technological unemployment?
Chinese Restaurant owner says robot noodle maker doing “a good job!”

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
http://www.acceleratingfuture.com/michael/blog/2007/07/top-10-transhumanist-technologies/
Technological unemployment?

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Information in our glasses
www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/04/06/sergey-brin-google-glasses_n_1408488.html

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
“Feature phones” / “Touch phones” / “Super phones”
Tablets / Slates
Smart, connected cars
In Vehicle Infotainment (IVI)
Consumer electronics:
cameras, eReaders, toys...
Industrial automation
(smart connected robots)
Mobile medical devices
Wearable computers:
uniforms, watches, spectacles
Connected homes:
Smart TVs, Heating, Security
Smart digital signs
Smart meters and grids
Smart micro-bots
(and nano-bots…)
Your suggestions here!
Smartphone technology embedded everywhere
None of this
is inevitable
But also powerful
decelerator forces inhibiting
these products
The eventual winners and
losers may be different
from whom we expect
There are powerful
accelerator forces supporting
these new products
Complexity Poor usability Antagonistic value chain Security/privacy issues Regulations

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Forecast: Nine trends that matter
1. Acceleration of technology change
– Greater need for speed
2. Convergence and disruption of industries
– Inherently hard to predict: greater need for agility
3. Increasing importance of design
– Users expect help and charm in navigating great complexity
4. Increasing importance of software:
– Numerous apps and the underlying enabling functionality
5. Increasing importance of integration
– Pulling everything together, reliably & quickly
6. Increasing importance of platforms
– Ready-made re-usable starting points for integration and growth
7. Increasing importance of automation
– Using tools and software to do hard processes better
8. The potential great
advantage of scale –
providing you deal
with the complexity
9. Increasing importance
of skills in collaboration
and partnership
web cloud security

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Delta Wisdom Ltd
Anticipating the decisive trends
in mobile technology, product and user expectations
in the next 2 - 3 years
David Wood, Catalyst & Futurist, Delta Wisdom, @dw2
http://dw2blog.com/
Chair, London Futurists, www.meetup.com/London-Futurists
Intelligence for profound change
Technology for Humanity+
Slideshare.NET / DeltaWisdom