DCR Trendline February 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report


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DCR Trendline February 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

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DCR Trendline February 2013 – Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report

  1. 1. REPORT # 12 | February 2013 TRENDLINE Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply ReportInside this Issue Note from the EditorNote from the Editor 1 In its second edition of 2013, TrendLine has been reworked to incorporate your comments andDCR National Temp Wage Index 2 feedback. This new edition of TrendLine focuses on providing you with condensed, concise, and data-driven pieces designed to provide you with the insights you need to make decisionsFiscal cliff: Is it on the Solid Ground? 3 and take action. As always, we provide you with perceptive observations into the contingentPercent change in weekly Wages staffing industry. We continue to analyze contingent demand and supply to bring you predictive(year-over-year) 4 forecasts of wage trends and market status.Adoption of social media by Once again, we commence this month’s edition with the DCR National Temp Wage Index,enterprises: A double-edged sword 10 discussing company’s trend of engaging temporary workers for low-skilled positions. The second piece in TrendLine follows up on our article in December’s edition entitled “The FiscalApplying Unstructured Data Cliff and its Impact on Contingent Hiring”. While our first article on the subject discussed theAnalytics to Customer Feedback Data 12 potential impact due to the changes, this month’s piece focuses on the Fiscal Cliff legislation’s impact on the job market, and particularly on small businesses. We next look at changes in weekly wages, year-over year, concentrating first on geography, and then highlighting trends for temporary workers. We conclude this article with an overview at the national level, looking at tendencies in unemployment and industry contributions. Look out for our comprehensive graphs, providing you with visual insights into wage trends. We then shift our focus on the adoption of social media in companies, providing you with views in the rounds, pointing out both the positive and negative potential repercussions. Our concluding article is a continuation of our feature on unstructured data analysis, where we discuss a relevant application of text mining utilizing customer feedback data.“ “With cost savings, faster time-to-hire, access to top Ammu Warrier talent not locally available, Ammu Warrier, President and a better product delivered, 85 percent of small business report in the Elance Global Business Survey that hiring online offers a competitive advantage” ~Darrell Jones, Editor-in-Chief at Elance “ Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 1
  2. 2. DCR National Temp Wage IndexRecruiters seem to feel that it might be beneficial to companies to hire batches of temporary workers to completetasks requiring low-skill manpower, instead of employing a permanent pool of low-wage, low-skill employees. Anexample of this can be seen in the design industry, where rather than static creative departments, companies areoutsourcing design and copy work to skilled freelancers.Apart from a few constraints, contingent workers serve a major portion of demand, which is flexibility in availabilitywith minimal commitment for other benefits. ““The number of temporary and contract workers employed by U.S. staffing firms on anaverage business day was 4.3% higher compared with the third quarter of 2011. This is the11th consecutive quarter of year-to-year staffing industry job growth since the recessionended mid-2009.” ~American Staffing Association Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 2
  3. 3. Fiscal cliff: Is it on the Solid Ground?With the deficit of $4 trillion income taxes are going up, but only for the rich. However, payroll taxes were hiked for everyone. Andgovernment spending cuts kicked down the road has lead the nation and job market especially towards a uncertain, unclear future.Reluctance to add workers by the small business owner with less than 500 employees, which roughly constitute half of privatesector employment, has become a worry. Many small business owners expressed concern about the immediate impact of the payrolltax increase, but they said it would take a while to understand how other aspects of the legislation would impact their bottom line.The most straightforward negative effect lies in the termination of the payroll-tax holiday that had reduced the employee’s share ofSocial Security tax from 6.2 to 4.2 percent of wages. While this isn’t specific to small businesses, the pattern is clear: Payroll-tax cutsstimulate job creation and payroll-tax increases discourage it. Joel Prakken of Macroeconomic Advisers estimated that the payroll-taxcut added 300,000 jobs to the U.S. economy. Therefore, doing away with the payroll-tax cap should eliminate 300,000 jobs.“As long as the federal government does not have a plan to reduce spending and address the deficit, small business owners are veryconcerned in very close future months that the plan that Congress proceeds with will include tax increases,” said Gregg Thompson, thestate director for the National Federation of Independent BusinessesMary Brogan, spokesperson for the National Small Business Association, said the lingering national debt could have a chilling effect ongrowth as businesses hesitate to take on additional employees or debt. Brogan said the lowered tax threshold impacts a limited butimportant group of business owners – those who are more likely to expand and hire new employees. The limit creates a fairness issuefor businesses that pass through income to owners.But there is some good news…The Fiscal Cliff legislation extends indefinitely the exclusion from wages for reimbursements of employer-provided educationalassistance and amounts paid by an employer under a qualified adoption assistance program. Under Section 127 of the InternalRevenue Code, employers may reimburse an employee, tax-free, up to $4,260 for qualified tuition assistance, despite relevance to job.And under Code Section 137, employers may reimburse an employee tax-free up to $12,650 for expenses related to adoption of a child.The legislative compromise also includes a remedy for estate tax exception, originally scheduled to drop to $1 million and nowremaining at $5.12 million. After reaching the $5.23 million threshold, the maximum tax rate will rise 5 percentage points to 40 percent. “Consumers, business-to-business transactions, I think everybody is going to tighten things up.” ~Mary Brogan, spokesperson for National Small Business Association Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 3
  4. 4. Percent Change in Weekly Wages (year-over-year) Top 10 States The U.S. average weekly wage increased over the year by 1.3 percent to $903 by the mid of the financial previous financial year. At the county level, Washington County in the state of Oregon had the largest increase in wages per- cent by 8.5%, which is majorly driven by the manufacturing industry. Bottom 10 States Of the 328 largest counties, 86 experienced over-the-year declines in average weekly wages. Williamson County in Texas experienced a loss of 17% in wages over the last year. Within Williamson, total wages in trade, transporta- tion, and utilities decreased by $212.4 million (-30.5 percent) over the year. Kitsap County in Washington had the second largest decline in average weekly wages, fol- lowed by Arlington County in Virginia, Durham County in North Carolina, and Benton County in Washington. Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 4
  5. 5. Percent Change in Weekly Wages (year-over-year)Temp at a Glance Top 10 Niche Market Occupational Opportunity for Temporary Workers Top 10 Occupations with the Largest Number of Temporary Workers Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 5
  6. 6. Percent Change in Weekly Wages (year-over-year) Top 10 Occupations Most Penetrated by Temporary WorkforceProfessional and business services topped the list with Temp and Help services alone managing to obtain an increment of 153kover the year, and Employment Services increasing by 148k. Continuous increment in contingent workforce was booster for theemployment in total during 2012.National Overview Top 10 states (Negative Growth in Unemployment) Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 6
  7. 7. Percent Change in Weekly Wages (year-over-year)Negative growth of employment refers to reduced employment, as seen in the above states. Regional and state unemployment rateswere generally lower in November. Forty-five states and the District of Columbia recorded unemployment rate decreases and fivestates had no change.Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult women (7.3 percent) and blacks (14.0 percent) edged up inDecember, while the rates for adult men (7.2 percent), teenagers (23.5 percent), whites (6.9 percent), and Hispanics (9.6 percent)showed little or no change. The jobless rate for Asians was 6.6 percent Bottom 10 States (Positive Growth in Unemployment / Minimal Reduction in Unemployment) Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 7
  8. 8. Percent Change in Weekly Wages (year-over-year) Top 10 States (Change in Employment over the Year, 2011-12)Over December 2012, major contributors to employments were Health (+45,000). Job gains occurred in ambulatory health careservices (+23,000), in hospitals (+12,000), and in nursing and residential care facilities (+10,000). In 2012, health care employmentrose by 338,000.In the same month, employment in food services and drinking places rose by 38,000. In 2012, the industry added an average of24,000 jobs a month, essentially the same as in 2011.Construction added 30,000 jobs in December, led by employment increases in construction of buildings (+13,000) and in residentialspecialty trade contractors (+12,000).In December, manufacturing employment rose by 25,000, with small gains in a number of component industries. In 2012, factoryemployment increased by 180,000; most of the growth occurred during the first quarter. Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 8
  9. 9. Percent Change in Weekly Wages (year-over-year) Bottom 10 States (Change in Employment over the Year, 2011-12)The civilian labor force for men increased by 275k, whereas women made a significant increase of 1244k over the last year. Employedpopulation for men increased by 899k, and same increased by 1508k over the year for women.From June 2011 to June 2012, employment increased in 287 of the 328 largest U.S. counties. Yakima County in Washington, emergedas the largest increase in employment, with a gain of 8.2 percent over the year, compared with national job growth of 1.8 percent. Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 9
  10. 10. Adoption of social media by enterprises: A double-edged swordInnovation adoption has long been associated as a signal of market leadership and thought leadership. In almost all sectors, thisis borne by firms wanting to maintain their market position, reduce risk, and to offset any competitive advantage to a prospectingchallenger. Even an innovation unlikely to be used could be a deterrent to an alternate business model. Examples include blockingof automobiles using renewable fuel energy by firms deeply entrenched in conventional oil and gas energy; or squashing a patentsto block use of innovation. It is in such light that one is intrigued by social media’s role, and firms sometimes having mixed feelingson adopting it. In this article, we attempt to unravel the intricacies of social media adoption by enterprises. While the study can begeneralized to any firm, it is more relevant to companies with direct business-to-consumer dealing.Should your company have its own blog? Is a Facebook page connecting stakeholders needed? Is it a good idea to take onconsumer complaints on twitter? How about a google hangout for your employees? Companies often end up incorrectly estimatingthe usefulness and risks of their decisions when it comes to social media usage. To leverage social media correctly and fully, thereis a level of internal preparation required. This is especially so if senior management is not as familiar with social media. There isgenerally a need to balance contradictory views, knowledge levels, and risk appetites of all involved.Decisions to be MadeA firm may need to decide firstly whether it is worth being on social media. One could have any of the possible reasons- to providea platform to employees to connect, to allow customers to provide feedback, to have R&D teams obtain user inputs on beta models,to connect stakeholders, acquire customers or establish position as thought-leader or merely match up to competition’s presence.Many companies choose not to be there and this may be acceptable as strategy if consumer expectations from the industry andcompetitor’s actions permit it. Often this may mean also an opportunity for new challengers to alter status quo using social mediaeffectively. In summary, surviving not being on social media platforms may be shortsighted and a strategy relevant and good for theshort-term only.Once a decision to be on social media is taken, company needs to decide whether to moderate content or allow laissez faire. Acompany also has to decide on activity levels. We discuss these options and company strategies regarding social media activities in afollow-up article in the upcoming edition of TrendLine. Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 10
  11. 11. Adoption of social media by enterprises: A double-edged swordROI of Social MediaMany enterprises rushed to embrace social media like any other innovation only to discover that it was an animal differentfrom any innovation they had seen before. All social media is not good social media. Nor is more of social media alwaysbetter. A firm opens itself up for scrutiny and may not be rightly positioned or equipped to handle the impact of socialmedia. How does your firm assess it? We recommend a balanced assessment of both a long-term strategic view andoperational returns in ROI.Another perspective on the question of to be or not to be on social media is that can you control customers, industryveterans and public in general from generating content, positive or negative about your firm. Also, can you ignore suchcontent even if you choose to leave it without response? As possibly BP had to learn after a Deepwater Horizon, enterprisesneed to be ready for catastrophic events that may come unannounced. Such risk calculations may not be modeled intostandard ROI templates.Yet another key decision variable not fully captured in ROI is the signaling importance of being avant garde in innovationadoption. A market leader or a customer-focused firm cannot ignore social media if competitors are prominent on thoseplatforms. It is a prisoners’ dilemma as no firm can afford to be perceived as being left behind in adopting an innovationthat is causing a paradigm shift in market dynamics as much as personal space of its customers. Perception is reality and themedium of communicating such perception, social media in this instance, cannot be ignored. “In TrendLine next month, look out for our follow-up article on Social Media StrategyOptions for Enterprises and a feature on Social Media Metrics and Measures. Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 11
  12. 12. Applying Unstructured Data Analytics to Customer Feedback Data Spreadsheet or database driven analysis has been around for a long time, and last month in TrendLine we shared what we can do with textual data. Firms can collect and analyze huge amounts of data from the web for business insights using a combination of text mining for extracting unstructured data in combination with big data for analysis. This month we share another application, now from internal data sources of a company, that can trigger some thought and also spawn new applications.“Shallow methods work extremely well… except when they don’t. Language is replete withunderlying structure.” ~Philip Resnik, University of Maryland One key source of textual information is the customer helpdesk. Many enterprises employ tens of thousands of call center employees to service customer for technical support, sales ordering, complaints and other needs. They capture a goldmine of customer insights that remain locked in transactions but never reach the higher value functions like product designers, SCM planners and sales teams. Even if it were to be available, the problem would be akin to looking for a needle in haystack, given the quality of such data. Customer feedback could be on a continuum from ridiculous to sublime and being textual it has to be read, understood, inferred and used. Furthermore, it has to be aggregated in a manner to tap wisdom of crowds, and not just individual. It is here that structured data mining can efficiently read and classify data based on structured data analysis algorithms. For example, a computer manufacturer when launching a new line of laptops, was keen to know how the product was received in market so that it could fine-tune future campaigns of promotion in other geographies. It had a launch with much fanfare, and trended on twitter too on the day of the launch. The volume of feedback exceeded the expectations due to a hyped promotion as also some unexpected problem with the microprocessor cooling in the product. What was remarkable about the analysis was the quick identification of top problems, top positives, and demographics of target market, that were quickly derived from unstructured data. The product team could latch onto some transparent, live feedback and guide the call center to proactively reach out to the customers even as they made changes to the product “ usage literature and design.“The role of NLP [Natural Language Processing] is not “understanding”. It’s helping peopledo useful things with language.” ~Philip Resnik, University of Maryland Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 12
  13. 13. MethodologyThe DCR Wage Index is developed to assess the relative movements of temporary wage rates in the U.S. economy. Thewage rates for temporary workers or contingent workforce are based on payments made by staffing firms to theseworkers based upon hours worked. Data collected from sources such as Bureau of Labor Standards (BLS) and othergovernment sites as well as an internal pool of staffing companies and consultants, is aggregated and classified basedon regions and skill categories, to arrive at an aggregate index.The baseline for the index is set at 100 for January 2007. Index value for a particular month indicates relative wages withthe said baseline and is representative in terms of direction and scale of change. Five years of data has been includedto observe seasonal patterns and distinguish seasonality from long-term wage movements. The data and the model hasbeen further refined over last six months.DCR Wage Index combines the exhaustive data from BLS with practical and more recent developments and data fromon-field consultants and clients, to provide timely near-term indications of trends and consistent long-term actionableand objective information.Source DataDCR Work Index uses multiple economic variables to ensure the robustness of its forecasts and cross-validationof trends.Key data sources and parameters of interest included and influencing the index are:Unemployment dataGross Domestic ProductPrime rate of interestNew and seasonal Job openingsNon Form employmentJob OpeningAll ExportAll ImportAverage Hourly Earnings of All Employees Total PrivateAggregate consultant data on job market parametersReferences: “http://www.newsobserver.com/2013/01/07/2586891/beyond-the-cliff-a-tricky-path.html#storylink=cpyhttp://www.entrepreneur.com/article/225433http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/dsrvhttp://www.staffingindustry.com/row/Research-Publications/Research-Topicshttp://blog.adeccousa.com/what-the-rise-of-the-temp-workforce-means-for-hr-and-internal-recruiters/http://www.bls.gov/news.release/laus.nr0.htm Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 13
  14. 14. About DCR WorkforceDCR Workforce is an award winning, best-in-class service provider for contingent workforce and servicesprocurement management. Our proprietary SaaS platform (SMART TRACK) assists in providing customizable VMSand MSP Solutions to manage, procure and analyze your talent with complete transparency, real-time control, highperformance and decision-enabling business intelligence.DCR Workforce serves global clientele including several Fortune 1000 companies. Customers realize greaterefficiencies; spend control, improved workforce quality and 100% compliance with our services.For more information about DCR Workforce and its Forecasting Toolkit (Rate, Demand, Supply and Intelligence)including Best Practice Portal, visit dcrworkforce.comFor more information call +1-888-DCR-4VMS or visit www.dcrworkforce.comPublic Relations:Debra Bergevine508-380-40397815 NW Beacon Square Blvd. #224 Boca Raton, FL 33487debra.bergevine@dcrworkforce.com | sales@dcrworkforce.com | marketing@dcrworkforce.comwww.dcrworkforce.com | blog.dcrworkforce.com facebook.com/DCRWorkforce linkedin.com/company/dcr-workforce twitter.com/DCRWorkforce © 2012 DCR Workforce, Inc. All Rights Reserved. DCR Workforce and Smart Track are Registered Trademarks. CCO — 082912 Trend Line: Contingent Worker Forecast and Supply Report. © DCR. All Rights Reserved - 15