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Perfect Timing: How to Know When to Exit a Stock
Marc Chaikin, CEO Chaikin Analytics
Wall Street io MeetUp
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
August 13, 2015
2
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
What Chaikin Analytics Adds to Wall Street iO
• Fundamentals
• Technical Analysis
• Quantitative Model
•Chaikin Buy/Sell signals improve your exits and entries
Zeroes in on Winning Stocks and Lets You Play Good Defense
A FLOOD OF INFORMATION
Quant Data for SXL
Time – Your Most Precious Commodity
How Do You Cut Through The Clutter?
Chaikin Power Gauge
Chaikin Power Gauge Rating
Clear summary of a stock’s potential - with a record of success
© 2014 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Technicals
• Price Trend
• Price Trend Rate of Change
• Chaikin Money Flow
• Relative Strength vs. Market
• Volume Trend
Experts
• Earnings Estimate Trend
• Short Interest
• Insider Activity
• Analyst Ratings
• Industry Relative Strength
Financials
• LT Debt to Equity Ratio
• Price to Book Value
• Return on Equity
• Price to Sales Ratio
• Free Cash Flow
Earnings
• Earnings Growth
• Earnings Surprise
• Earnings Trend
• Projected P/E Ratio
• Earnings Consistency
© 2015 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Russell 3000 stock universe. Annualized return by rating group vs benchmark, 4-week rebalancing.
Results are equal-weighted. Russell 3000 ETF is cap-weighted. Both include dividends.
8
Power Gauge Ratings: Life To Date
Avg Stock +9.26%
Model Performance 1/2/99 - 6/30/15 (all returns annualized)
Includes Test Period & Real World results
© 2015 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Russell 3000 stock universe. Annualized return by rating group vs benchmark, 4-week rebalancing.
Results are equal-weighted. Russell 3000 ETF is cap-weighted. Both include dividends.
9
Power Gauge Ratings: Last 12 months
Avg Stock +2.78%
Model Performance 7/1/14 - 6/30/15 (all returns annualized)
© 2015 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Nasdaq/Chaikin Indexes
1
1-year performance vs. benchmarks 4/1/14 - 3/31/15
Nasdaq
Benchmark
Nasdaq/
Chaikin Index
Increase in Return
Large Cap +10.02% +15.26% +52%
Small Cap +5.97% +10.55% +76%
Dividends +5.74% +8.55% +49%
Symbols: Nasdaq Chaikin
Large Cap NQUSS300 NQUSCHK
Small Cap NQUSL1500 NQULCHK
Dividends DAA NQUDACHK
Nasdaq partnered with Chaikin to overlay our ‘Enhanced Alpha’
strategies on popular Nasdaq indexes.
These co-branded indexes will serve as the basis for investible
products.
In year 1, all 3 Chaikin indexes - which are unmanaged -
outperformed their benchmarks returning 49% to 76% more.
The Chaikin Analytics Method
Chaikin Buy/Sell Signals
Technical Indicators
Chaikin Money Flow & Chaikin Relative Strength
Chaikin Power Gauge
• Power Gauge Rating Bullish
• Relative Performance Strong
• Chaikin Money Flow Strong
What to Buy: Chaikin Classic Bulls
• Power Gauge Rating Bearish
• Relative Performance Weak
• Chaikin Money Flow Weak
What to Sell: Chaikin Classic Bears
Testimonial
190% Profit in Two Days
”I put on a WFM put trade which was your alternative bear trade
of the week in Market Insights. Today I locked up a 190% profit in two
days. Consider me a loyal user!”
TS 5/7/14
Market agrees with the Model
Three Key Indicators
Three Important Takeaways
Play Good Offense and Defense
• Relative Strength stands alone as a bullish or bearish indicator
• Superior returns come from stocks that outperform the market
The Dynamic Duo
Chaikin Power Gauge Rating and Chaikin Relative Strength
Market agrees with the Model
Market agrees with the Model
The Key to Turbo Charging Your Profits
Spotting Personality Changes
Apple: Ripe, Rotten or Reversal - 2013?
Bearish Personality Change
CMF stays negative
Bearish Personality ChangeBearish Personality Change
CMF stays negative
Bearish Personality ChangeBearish Personality Change
CMF stays negative
Bullish Personality Change
Institutions fly under the radar
monitor stealth buying and selling with Chaikin Money Flow
Stealth Accumulation
Stealth Distribution
Play Offense Well: What to Buy
Market agrees with the Model
CMF stays negative
Market agrees with the Model
CMF stays negative
Good Defense Leads to Good Offense
Turning Land Mines into Gold Mines
Market agrees with the Model
Market agrees with the Model
CMF stays negative
Market agrees with the ModelMarket agrees with the Model
CMF stays negative
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
To Trade More Profitably: Follow the signals
A DISCIPLINE based on proven analytics, gives you conviction…better than EMOTION.
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
To Trade More Profitably: Follow the signals
A DISCIPLINE based on proven analytics, gives you conviction…better than EMOTION.
Dashboard Alerts in Chaikin Analytics 8/13
Market agrees with the ModelBearish Personality ChangeMarket agrees with the Model
Price Acceleration
CMF stays positive
NXPI
NXPI
ETF Sector & Group Strength or Weakness
• Strong Groups = Tailwinds: Long Profits
• Weak Groups = Headwinds: Short Opportunities
ETFs to Trade and for Stock & Options Ideas
Make Profits in Strong Sectors
Negative Personality Change
Negative Personality Change
Negative Personality Change
Make Profits in Strong Sectors
Bearish Personality Change
Market agrees with the Model
Bearish Personality ChangeBearish Personality Change
CMF stays negative
Market agrees with the Model
CMF stays negative
Negative Personality Change
Negative Personality Change
Recent Market Strength…
Was it Time to Take Profits ?
Is the Overall Market Giving Us a Clue?
Yes: Check the Chaikin Money Flow for SPY
Market agrees with the Model
To Prepare for a Correction - Do this…
• Monitor your portfolio regularly
• Avoid stocks with bearish Power Gauge ratings and bearish
Relative Strength
• Look for Chaikin Money Flow divergences
• Avoid Weak Industry Group Strength using Power Bars
• Check Dashboard or Hotlists for Chaikin Sell signals
……and be better prepared for this
Winning Earnings Plays – Long and Short
Like a GPS for Stocks During Earnings Season
Netflix Puts 2014: +50x in one day
Outsized Put Win - Again
Quick $21,500 Profit
“Just added Chaikin Analytics to my arsenal.
Using the Upcoming Earnings Ideas in CA, Netflix had a
Very Bearish rating and was recommended by Chaikin…
Bought three put contracts before earnings on 10/15
for $22.20 and sold the day after earnings for $93.90. A
quick $21,500 profit.”
‒ John V, AAPL Trader & Chaikin Analytics Subscriber
NXPI
WFM has already Disappointed
- B.W., Chaikin Analytics Subscriber 6/5/15
$8k In 2 Days “Just wanted to thank you for
the word on ESL. Bought puts on Wednesday
for $1,700 and sold them this morning for
$10,200! That's awesome!"
76
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
The Platform: Chaikin Analytics
Chaikin Analytics $1950
Webinar Special
Only $1,750
www.chaikinanalytics.com/aapl
Offer Code: AAPL
Expires Monday Midnight, August 17
Or contact sales@chaikinanaytics.com
877-697-6783
© 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential.
Turbo charge your profits - get $695 in added value
*Chaikin Market Insights Weekly Newsletter*
· FREE small group tutorials to help you set up and use all the features
· FREE Subscriber-Only Open Forums, live bi-monthly Q&A sessions
*John Schlitz’s Daily Morning Insights *
“Big Shout out to Micah”
“Regardless of your trading style, Chaikin Analytics
is a remarkable tool and compliments the vibe here
at AAPL Trader”. ― Jim, December 2014
Fast Action Bonus $1,750
Subscribe by Midnight, Tonight
and Take Additional $100 off
Only $1,650
www.chaikinanalytics.com/aapl
Offer Code: AAPL
Or contact sales@chaikinanalytics.com
877-MYPORTFOLIO
Invaluable: Market Insights
CHAIKIN MARKET INSIGHTS – July 26, 2015
Bearish Stock of the Week – Yelp Inc. (YELP) – 34.56
Yelp Inc. has a very bearish Chaikin Power Gauge rating and reports
its 2nd quarter earnings after the close on Tuesday July 28. When
YELP reported their 1st quarter earnings in late April, the stock
dropped over 20% on disappointing engagement numbers.
Buy put options on YELP ahead of Tuesday’s earnings.
Netted $17,408 profit this morning:
"I have found more success in the past two weeks using Chaikin than I have had the
rest of the year . . . I had the biggest winner of the year today on Yelp earnings
(based on Marc's Bearish play of the week). I bought 3 different puts strikes, risking
$7,168 and netted $17,408 profit this morning” - Mike T., 7/29/15
Subscribe Now to Chaikin Analytics
Pay Only $1,650
www.chaikinanalytics.com/aapl
Offer Code: AAPL
877-MYPORTFOLIO
Sign Up Today!

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Perfect Timing: How to Know When to Exit a Stock by Marc Chaikin 08.13.15 aapl

  • 1. Perfect Timing: How to Know When to Exit a Stock Marc Chaikin, CEO Chaikin Analytics Wall Street io MeetUp © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. August 13, 2015
  • 2. 2 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. What Chaikin Analytics Adds to Wall Street iO • Fundamentals • Technical Analysis • Quantitative Model •Chaikin Buy/Sell signals improve your exits and entries Zeroes in on Winning Stocks and Lets You Play Good Defense
  • 3. A FLOOD OF INFORMATION
  • 5. Time – Your Most Precious Commodity How Do You Cut Through The Clutter?
  • 7. Chaikin Power Gauge Rating Clear summary of a stock’s potential - with a record of success © 2014 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Technicals • Price Trend • Price Trend Rate of Change • Chaikin Money Flow • Relative Strength vs. Market • Volume Trend Experts • Earnings Estimate Trend • Short Interest • Insider Activity • Analyst Ratings • Industry Relative Strength Financials • LT Debt to Equity Ratio • Price to Book Value • Return on Equity • Price to Sales Ratio • Free Cash Flow Earnings • Earnings Growth • Earnings Surprise • Earnings Trend • Projected P/E Ratio • Earnings Consistency
  • 8. © 2015 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Russell 3000 stock universe. Annualized return by rating group vs benchmark, 4-week rebalancing. Results are equal-weighted. Russell 3000 ETF is cap-weighted. Both include dividends. 8 Power Gauge Ratings: Life To Date Avg Stock +9.26% Model Performance 1/2/99 - 6/30/15 (all returns annualized) Includes Test Period & Real World results
  • 9. © 2015 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Russell 3000 stock universe. Annualized return by rating group vs benchmark, 4-week rebalancing. Results are equal-weighted. Russell 3000 ETF is cap-weighted. Both include dividends. 9 Power Gauge Ratings: Last 12 months Avg Stock +2.78% Model Performance 7/1/14 - 6/30/15 (all returns annualized)
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  • 11. © 2015 Chaikin Analytics LLC. All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Nasdaq/Chaikin Indexes 1 1-year performance vs. benchmarks 4/1/14 - 3/31/15 Nasdaq Benchmark Nasdaq/ Chaikin Index Increase in Return Large Cap +10.02% +15.26% +52% Small Cap +5.97% +10.55% +76% Dividends +5.74% +8.55% +49% Symbols: Nasdaq Chaikin Large Cap NQUSS300 NQUSCHK Small Cap NQUSL1500 NQULCHK Dividends DAA NQUDACHK Nasdaq partnered with Chaikin to overlay our ‘Enhanced Alpha’ strategies on popular Nasdaq indexes. These co-branded indexes will serve as the basis for investible products. In year 1, all 3 Chaikin indexes - which are unmanaged - outperformed their benchmarks returning 49% to 76% more.
  • 12. The Chaikin Analytics Method Chaikin Buy/Sell Signals Technical Indicators Chaikin Money Flow & Chaikin Relative Strength Chaikin Power Gauge
  • 13. • Power Gauge Rating Bullish • Relative Performance Strong • Chaikin Money Flow Strong What to Buy: Chaikin Classic Bulls
  • 14.
  • 15. • Power Gauge Rating Bearish • Relative Performance Weak • Chaikin Money Flow Weak What to Sell: Chaikin Classic Bears
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  • 18. Testimonial 190% Profit in Two Days ”I put on a WFM put trade which was your alternative bear trade of the week in Market Insights. Today I locked up a 190% profit in two days. Consider me a loyal user!” TS 5/7/14
  • 19. Market agrees with the Model
  • 20. Three Key Indicators Three Important Takeaways Play Good Offense and Defense
  • 21. • Relative Strength stands alone as a bullish or bearish indicator • Superior returns come from stocks that outperform the market The Dynamic Duo Chaikin Power Gauge Rating and Chaikin Relative Strength
  • 22. Market agrees with the Model
  • 23. Market agrees with the Model
  • 24. The Key to Turbo Charging Your Profits Spotting Personality Changes
  • 25. Apple: Ripe, Rotten or Reversal - 2013? Bearish Personality Change CMF stays negative
  • 26. Bearish Personality ChangeBearish Personality Change CMF stays negative
  • 27. Bearish Personality ChangeBearish Personality Change CMF stays negative Bullish Personality Change
  • 28. Institutions fly under the radar monitor stealth buying and selling with Chaikin Money Flow
  • 31. Play Offense Well: What to Buy
  • 32. Market agrees with the Model CMF stays negative
  • 33. Market agrees with the Model CMF stays negative
  • 34. Good Defense Leads to Good Offense Turning Land Mines into Gold Mines
  • 35. Market agrees with the Model
  • 36. Market agrees with the Model CMF stays negative
  • 37. Market agrees with the ModelMarket agrees with the Model CMF stays negative
  • 38.
  • 39. © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. To Trade More Profitably: Follow the signals A DISCIPLINE based on proven analytics, gives you conviction…better than EMOTION.
  • 40. © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. To Trade More Profitably: Follow the signals A DISCIPLINE based on proven analytics, gives you conviction…better than EMOTION.
  • 41. Dashboard Alerts in Chaikin Analytics 8/13
  • 42.
  • 43. Market agrees with the ModelBearish Personality ChangeMarket agrees with the Model Price Acceleration
  • 45. NXPI
  • 46. NXPI
  • 47. ETF Sector & Group Strength or Weakness • Strong Groups = Tailwinds: Long Profits • Weak Groups = Headwinds: Short Opportunities
  • 48. ETFs to Trade and for Stock & Options Ideas
  • 49. Make Profits in Strong Sectors
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  • 55. Make Profits in Strong Sectors
  • 57. Market agrees with the Model
  • 58. Bearish Personality ChangeBearish Personality Change CMF stays negative
  • 59. Market agrees with the Model CMF stays negative
  • 62. Recent Market Strength… Was it Time to Take Profits ? Is the Overall Market Giving Us a Clue? Yes: Check the Chaikin Money Flow for SPY
  • 63. Market agrees with the Model
  • 64. To Prepare for a Correction - Do this… • Monitor your portfolio regularly • Avoid stocks with bearish Power Gauge ratings and bearish Relative Strength • Look for Chaikin Money Flow divergences • Avoid Weak Industry Group Strength using Power Bars • Check Dashboard or Hotlists for Chaikin Sell signals
  • 65. ……and be better prepared for this
  • 66. Winning Earnings Plays – Long and Short
  • 67. Like a GPS for Stocks During Earnings Season
  • 68. Netflix Puts 2014: +50x in one day
  • 69. Outsized Put Win - Again Quick $21,500 Profit “Just added Chaikin Analytics to my arsenal. Using the Upcoming Earnings Ideas in CA, Netflix had a Very Bearish rating and was recommended by Chaikin… Bought three put contracts before earnings on 10/15 for $22.20 and sold the day after earnings for $93.90. A quick $21,500 profit.” ‒ John V, AAPL Trader & Chaikin Analytics Subscriber
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  • 72. NXPI
  • 73. WFM has already Disappointed
  • 74.
  • 75. - B.W., Chaikin Analytics Subscriber 6/5/15 $8k In 2 Days “Just wanted to thank you for the word on ESL. Bought puts on Wednesday for $1,700 and sold them this morning for $10,200! That's awesome!"
  • 76. 76 © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. The Platform: Chaikin Analytics
  • 77. Chaikin Analytics $1950 Webinar Special Only $1,750 www.chaikinanalytics.com/aapl Offer Code: AAPL Expires Monday Midnight, August 17 Or contact sales@chaikinanaytics.com 877-697-6783
  • 78. © 2013 Chaikin Analytics All Rights Reserved. Proprietary and Confidential. Turbo charge your profits - get $695 in added value *Chaikin Market Insights Weekly Newsletter* · FREE small group tutorials to help you set up and use all the features · FREE Subscriber-Only Open Forums, live bi-monthly Q&A sessions *John Schlitz’s Daily Morning Insights *
  • 79. “Big Shout out to Micah” “Regardless of your trading style, Chaikin Analytics is a remarkable tool and compliments the vibe here at AAPL Trader”. ― Jim, December 2014
  • 80. Fast Action Bonus $1,750 Subscribe by Midnight, Tonight and Take Additional $100 off Only $1,650 www.chaikinanalytics.com/aapl Offer Code: AAPL Or contact sales@chaikinanalytics.com 877-MYPORTFOLIO
  • 81. Invaluable: Market Insights CHAIKIN MARKET INSIGHTS – July 26, 2015 Bearish Stock of the Week – Yelp Inc. (YELP) – 34.56 Yelp Inc. has a very bearish Chaikin Power Gauge rating and reports its 2nd quarter earnings after the close on Tuesday July 28. When YELP reported their 1st quarter earnings in late April, the stock dropped over 20% on disappointing engagement numbers. Buy put options on YELP ahead of Tuesday’s earnings.
  • 82.
  • 83. Netted $17,408 profit this morning: "I have found more success in the past two weeks using Chaikin than I have had the rest of the year . . . I had the biggest winner of the year today on Yelp earnings (based on Marc's Bearish play of the week). I bought 3 different puts strikes, risking $7,168 and netted $17,408 profit this morning” - Mike T., 7/29/15
  • 84. Subscribe Now to Chaikin Analytics Pay Only $1,650 www.chaikinanalytics.com/aapl Offer Code: AAPL 877-MYPORTFOLIO Sign Up Today!