Presented on International Scientific Conference, University of Siauliai, 16.10.2015

1. Valdis Balcers,
Doctorant of Political Sciences,
University of Latvia

2.  Governmental policy
 Globalization
 Influencing environment
 Internal factors
 External factors
 International relations
 Interdependence of policies in different states
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

3.  The Western democracies:
 ESA for the EU
 NASA for the US
 …
 Out of the West:
 Roscosmos for Russia
 Chinese Space Agency
 …
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

4.  Predictability of the relations before 2008
 Uncertainty starts with Russo – Georgian war
(2008)
 Deterioration through the occupation of the
Crimea and swampy war in Eastern Ukraine
 The economic and political sanctions against
Russia
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

5.  To find out
 the extent to which the space policies of the West
and Russia depend on each other (emphasis on
Russia’s dependence)
 the features and differences of the space industries
governance in Russia from the West > a sensitivity of
the system to foreign dependency
 quantitative indicators which determine the mutual
dependence (emphasis on Russia’s dependence)
 a secondary impact on the Western space policy due
to deterioration of relations with Russia
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

6.  A theory of economic and political interdependence: Keohane, R., and Nye, J.
(1989) Power and Interdependence. Glenview, Illinois: Scott, Foresman &
Company
 Crescenzi Mark J.C. (2002) Economic Interdependence and Conflict in World Politics. University of North
Carolina, Chapel Hill. Pp 272
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

7.  (Quantitative) Correlation analysis of time series
with few samples: Courgeau, D. (2012) Probability
and Social Science. NY: Springer
 (Qualitative) Content analysis: Krippendorff, K. H.
(2004) Content Analysis. An Introduction to Its
Methodology. Thousand Oaks: SAGE Publication
 (Qualitative) Scenario building: Lindgren, M., and
Bandhold, H. (2003). Scenario Planning: The Link
Between Future and Strategy. NY: Palgrave
MacMillan
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

8.  Growth of Civil Space Budget correlation between Roscosmos (RUS),
ESA and NASA by lag in 2010-2015 as difference between actual and
corresponding critical values of correlation coefficient
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia
0,004 0,062

9.  «Technological transfer» from the West to Russia
 The character of nowadays cooperation between the West and
Russia in space
 The Russian dependence on the West is a fact
 Steadiness to the Western sanctions:
 Import substitution
 Import of technology from BRICS countries
 Angara and Vostochny are finished
 The cooperation fact with the West on the use of outer space
is not vital for Russia
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

10.  The matrix of outcomes for relations between the West and Russia, and
for the Western space policies, depending on the scenario (on the left
side). On the right side – decoding of colour designation in the matrix
in respect of the Western space policies
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia
Tightening W/o changes Easing
Tightening Esacalation Esacalation Uncertainty
downward cooperation -
additional costs
W/o
changes
Deadlock Deadlock Uncertainty
minimal cooperation -
possible additional costs
Easing Detente Detente Detente
cooperation restored -
no additional costs
Russian
reaction
The Western action no cooperation in long term -
significant additional costs

11.  A high degree of self-sufficiency of the Kremlin
regime
 A certain economic dependence of the EU on
Russia
 An excessive bureaucratization and inability of
EU’s public policy to adopt independently a
flexible decisions
 Choose the cheaper imported products instead of
investments into promising home-grown solutions
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

12.  The Russian space policy evinces greater autonomy than the
Western ones
 Difference of Russian space policy and industry from the
Western one:
 Corruption
 Embezzlement of public funds
 Strictly centralized management scheme
 Civil program is connected with the military; military command
 The existence of similarity in nature of Roscosmos funding
(at lag of 2 years) to NASA funding
 Additional costs for West due to their dependence on
supplies from Russia in 67 % of possible scenarios of
development of their relations
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia

13. Comments, questions
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Space Policy. Valdis Balcers,
University of Latvia