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03-OCT-2013
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MCX NEWSLETTER- DAILY
Daily MCX Newsletter
03-OCT-2013

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MARKET WRAP
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BULLION
Is there more weakness in store for gold? Probably yes.
Lower gold prices have failed to attract buyers, which
may lead to further downfall in the yellow metal. Gold
has fallen as much as $140 an ounce in recent trades, due
to worries over the potential winding down of the U.S.
Federal Reserve's $85 billion monthly bond purchases. In
the London Metal Exchange (LME), gold for immediate
delivery fell 0.4% to $1,247.66 an ounce on Thursday.
Prices, which rose 0.8% yesterday, slumped to $1,180.50
on June 28, the lowest since August 2010.
In the US, gold for August delivery fell 0.4% to $1,246.60
on the Comex in New York, where floor trading is shut
today for Independence Day, following yesterday’s 0.7%
gain. A US employment data will decide the future trend
for Federal Reserve’s plans to bring down stimulus. This
may further decide the future trend for gold.
Gold fell to $1,180.71 in June, lowest since August 2010,
after indications from the Fed that it could curtail its
stimulus programme in the next few months, earlier than
expected. Fed announced series of bond buying
programs after financial crisis of 2008. This helped gold
prices to increase the safe-haven appeal of gold as a
hedge against inflation, driving prices to a record above
$1,900 an ounce in September 2011. However, the lower
prices have failed to woo buyers in Asia and elsewhere as
consumers expect a further drop. As per a Reuters
report, sales of gold coins and bars at the Perth Mint
nearly halved in June from May, reflecting a slowing
appetite for bullion despite prices being near three-year
lows.
MARKET NEWS
ENERGY
Oil prices fell on Thursday after the military coup in
Egypt. The prices had surged by 3%-5% over the previous
two days. The price of US crude had hit a 14-month high
on Wednesday on concerns over political turmoil in
Egypt, as well as rising US oil demand. US light sweet
crude fell two cents to below $101 a barrel, and Brent
crude dropped 36 cents to $105.40.
Analysts believe that the crude oil prices would further
soften as the tension along the Suez canal has eased.
Also, US stock piles have further put pressure on the
crude oil prices.
But the gap between the US and European oil
benchmarks continued to narrow. ICE Brent for August
was down 62 cents, or 0.59%, at $105.14. Nymex for
August was down 44 cents, or 0.43%, at $100.80--still
trading above the $100 mark, having climbed above the
symbolic level yesterday for the first time in 14 months.
The U.S. markets will be closed later for the
Independence Day public holiday.
A Wall Street Journal report stated that U.S. benchmark
West Texas International, or WTI, had a lot to do with the
easing of the glut at the U.S. oil storage facility in Cushing
that has kept prices depressed. When there is a lot of oil
available, supply fears recede and the price remains low,
but now oil is leaving the facility more quickly. "Crude
futures continued making headway over yesterday's
trading session with ICE Brent gaining 1.69% [day on day]
to settle at $105.76 per barrel while Nymex WTI settled
above the $100 per barrel mark for the first time in 14
months," wrote analysts at JBC Markets.
BASE METAL
Copper prices in both domestic and global market are
witnessing negative trend due to concerns over global
economic recovery. Copper is expected to trade less
volatile as US markets are closed for the day on
account of Independence Day. China being the largest
consumer, has indicated sings of slowdown in
industrial production. In addition, copper inventories
are well over 600,000 tons, which is high on a historic
basis. China’s manufacturing numbers are weakening,
which may create stockpiles of copper, thereby
further pressurizing the prices. People are worried
that China, which really drives a lot of the metal
stories, is not growing as fast as expected.
Eurostat is scheduled to release its data on Eurozone
Quarterly Gross Domestic Product at 02.30 PM IST
today. European Central Bank (ECB) is scheduled to
release its decision on interest rate at 05.15 PM IST
which is followed by president Mario Draghi's speech
at 06.00 PM IST today. The base metal investors may
get trading clues from the speech for their further
trading.
US Non-farm pay roll data is scheduled to be released
at 06.00 PM IST on Friday by which investors are
expected to get clues on the health of the world's
largest economy. In the week ending June 29, the
advance figure for seasonally adjusted US
unemployment insurance weekly claims was 343,000,
a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised
figure of 348,000, according to the data released by
the US Department of Labor.

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GOLD (5 DEC)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : -CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 29550, 29890
SUPPORT : - 28600, 28000
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
TECHNICAL
VIEW
SILVER (5 DEC)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 48500, 49325
SUPPORT : - 47200,46800
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
BULLION

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ENERGY
CRUDEOIL (21 OCT)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 6450, 6530
SUPPORT : - 6300, 6200
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
NATURAL GAS (28 OCT)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 231.60, 236
SUPPORT : - 222, 216.50
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS

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BASE METAL
COPPER (29 NOV.)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 465.50, 472
SUPPORT : - 456, 452
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
LEAD (31 OCT)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 131.60, 134
SUPPORT : - 127.50, 126
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS

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ZINC (31 OCT)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 119, 120.40
SUPPORT : - 115, 113
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
ALUMINUM (31 OCT)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 114.60, 116.70
SUPPORT : - 112, 109.80
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS
NICKEL (31 OCT)
OUTLOOK:
TREND : - CONSOLIDATE
RESISTANCE : - 878.10, 886
SUPPORT : - 863, 852.60
STRATEGY : - SELL ON HIGHS

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GOLD 1311.27
SILVER 21.680
COPPER 03.311
CRUDE OIL 103.63
NATURAL GAS 03.541
PALLADIUM 716.30
PLATINUM 1387.00
USDINR 62.4500
EURUSD 01.3597
USDJPY 97.5600
USDCHF 00.9016
GBPUSD 01.6228
USDCAD 01.0321
INTERNATIONAL
MARKET

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