Wi-Fi Opportunities & Challenges
Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis
Wi-Fi Now, Shanghai, March 2019
dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean
Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
Dean Bubley & Disruptive Analysis
◼ Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991
◼ Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy
◼ Cross-silo, contrarian, independent
◼ Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Network Tech, Policy
& Business Models
Communications
Apps & Services
Telecom-Futurism
Industry Analyst
Papers & Reports
Key trends for the next 10-15 years
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI
New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks
Wi-Fi has both opportunities & challenges
Good news
- More fixed broadband lines
- More devices & use-cases, esp. IoT
- More use in developing world
- More spectrum
- More entrenched in the Home (mesh, cloud etc)
Bad news
- Worse public login experience
- Flat-rate cellular data
- 5G community better at verticals
- Losing “non-Wi-Fi” 802.11 innovators
- Not enough global community visibility / lobbying
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
A billion lines of fixed broadband, most with Wi-Fi
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Source: Point Topic
Even 5G FWA still needs Wi-Fi indoors
Mesh + Cloud is entrenching home Wi-Fi
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
??
?
Multiple dimensions for future wireless networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019
March 2019
bpd
bps
Gbps
10m
Non-
critical
Function-
critical
90%
99%
99.9%
Rural2
3
4
1
Steps
from
Internet
3D
Coverage
Bandwidth
Kbps
Importance
Business-
critical
Safety-
critical
Range
<1m
Mbps
And also:
Latency / TSN
Power source
Socioeconomic
Geopolitical
Security model
Mobility
Integration
Bi-directional
Protocols
Lobbying power
1km
>10km
100m
4G / 5G / LPWA /
Satellite / TVWS
Managed
spectrum?Wi-Fi, inc. 11ax, ad
Biz Model
CSP
Private
Amenity
Community
Decentralised
Indoor
Unlicensed /
shared bands?
Every vertical & sector has unique wireless requirements
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
More spectrum… but still more ambition needed
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Wi-Fi should be aiming
for licensed / shared
bands as well
(802.11 already can)
Wi-Fi Competitiveness Scorecard vs. alternative networks
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
ProblematicOptimal
In-Home
Office
Public
Industrial
Outdoors
& mobile
Wi-Fi: whole home
Wi-Fi: poor logonWi-Fi: easy logon
Wi-Fi: single AP
Wi-Fi: enterprise
Wi-Fi: general Wi-Fi: safety critical
Wi-Fi: limited
4G flat-rate
4G flat-rate
4G metered
4G metered
Fibre / Niche 4G private
4G MBB 4G NB-IoT
Wired Ethernet Indoor 4G
Satellite
This is unacceptable & will help kill public Wi-Fi
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Losing the battle with 4G for public-space network access
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Enter
email
This is how public WiFi is done properly
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
“Capillarity” – how many steps from the Internet / core?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Combinations of multiple networks are inevitable
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
Including a beta of
“aggregation mode”
The cellular industry is expanding its reach hugely
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
4G / LTE 5G NR
LTE-U
Private
LTE
LTE-M
NB-IoT
5G-U
Private
5G
5G-TSN
URLLC
5G-V2X
5G FWA
5G + MEC
5G NC
3G
Should Wi-Fi be an inclusive or exclusive brand?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
5G
3GPP 5G
NR radio
IEEE 802.11
Wi-Fi™
Cool 802.11
innovations
(not “Wi-Fi”)
Why doesn’t Wi-Fi have vertical forums & academia like 5G?
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
What the Wi-Fi industry needs to do
◼ Look to own as much of the future use-case landscape as possible
 Go (almost) wherever 5G / 3GPP is going
 … in terms of use-case, frequencies & business-models
◼ Defend the consumer market with mesh Wi-Fi + cloud control
◼ Take industrial / verticals Wi-Fi much more seriously, and fast
 Endorse variants intended for licensed / shared spectrum bands
 Engage with Industrial Ethernet / TSN communities more deeply
◼ Wi-Fi Alliance should create a new “Innovation” or “Experimental” track for
“lightweight” certification, with low friction & costs (Wi-Fi-E perhaps?)
 Capture cool new uses & variations of 802.11 for the Wi-Fi brand
 Explicitly recognise that WiFi-E technologies may not interoperate
◼ Stop the stupidity of hotspot log-ins, social connection & privacy abuse
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
www.deanbubley.com
disruptivewireless.blogspot.com
@disruptivedean
https://www.linkedin.com/in/deanbubley/
https://soundcloud.com/user-521594836
information@disruptive-analysis.com
Skype:disruptiveanalysis
Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2017March 2019

WiFi Opportunities & Challenges: Positioning vs. 5G

  • 1.
    Wi-Fi Opportunities &Challenges Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis Wi-Fi Now, Shanghai, March 2019 dean.bubley@disruptive-analysis.com @disruptivedean Image credits: Pixabay.com / Dean Bubley
  • 2.
    Dean Bubley &Disruptive Analysis ◼ Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting since 1991 ◼ Futurism, Forecasting, Anti-Forecasting, Policy ◼ Cross-silo, contrarian, independent ◼ Often provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong. Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Network Tech, Policy & Business Models Communications Apps & Services Telecom-Futurism Industry Analyst Papers & Reports
  • 3.
    Key trends forthe next 10-15 years Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Automation & Robotics Smart Environments AI New Vehicles & Transport Human Enhancement & Longevity New Dangers & Risks
  • 4.
    Wi-Fi has bothopportunities & challenges Good news - More fixed broadband lines - More devices & use-cases, esp. IoT - More use in developing world - More spectrum - More entrenched in the Home (mesh, cloud etc) Bad news - Worse public login experience - Flat-rate cellular data - 5G community better at verticals - Losing “non-Wi-Fi” 802.11 innovators - Not enough global community visibility / lobbying Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  • 5.
    A billion linesof fixed broadband, most with Wi-Fi Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Source: Point Topic Even 5G FWA still needs Wi-Fi indoors
  • 6.
    Mesh + Cloudis entrenching home Wi-Fi Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 ?? ?
  • 7.
    Multiple dimensions forfuture wireless networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019 March 2019 bpd bps Gbps 10m Non- critical Function- critical 90% 99% 99.9% Rural2 3 4 1 Steps from Internet 3D Coverage Bandwidth Kbps Importance Business- critical Safety- critical Range <1m Mbps And also: Latency / TSN Power source Socioeconomic Geopolitical Security model Mobility Integration Bi-directional Protocols Lobbying power 1km >10km 100m 4G / 5G / LPWA / Satellite / TVWS Managed spectrum?Wi-Fi, inc. 11ax, ad Biz Model CSP Private Amenity Community Decentralised Indoor Unlicensed / shared bands?
  • 8.
    Every vertical &sector has unique wireless requirements Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  • 9.
    More spectrum… butstill more ambition needed Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Wi-Fi should be aiming for licensed / shared bands as well (802.11 already can)
  • 10.
    Wi-Fi Competitiveness Scorecardvs. alternative networks Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal ProblematicOptimal In-Home Office Public Industrial Outdoors & mobile Wi-Fi: whole home Wi-Fi: poor logonWi-Fi: easy logon Wi-Fi: single AP Wi-Fi: enterprise Wi-Fi: general Wi-Fi: safety critical Wi-Fi: limited 4G flat-rate 4G flat-rate 4G metered 4G metered Fibre / Niche 4G private 4G MBB 4G NB-IoT Wired Ethernet Indoor 4G Satellite
  • 11.
    This is unacceptable& will help kill public Wi-Fi Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  • 12.
    Losing the battlewith 4G for public-space network access Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Enter email
  • 13.
    This is howpublic WiFi is done properly Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  • 14.
    “Capillarity” – howmany steps from the Internet / core? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  • 15.
    Combinations of multiplenetworks are inevitable Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 Including a beta of “aggregation mode”
  • 16.
    The cellular industryis expanding its reach hugely Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 4G / LTE 5G NR LTE-U Private LTE LTE-M NB-IoT 5G-U Private 5G 5G-TSN URLLC 5G-V2X 5G FWA 5G + MEC 5G NC 3G
  • 17.
    Should Wi-Fi bean inclusive or exclusive brand? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019 5G 3GPP 5G NR radio IEEE 802.11 Wi-Fi™ Cool 802.11 innovations (not “Wi-Fi”)
  • 18.
    Why doesn’t Wi-Fihave vertical forums & academia like 5G? Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  • 20.
    What the Wi-Fiindustry needs to do ◼ Look to own as much of the future use-case landscape as possible  Go (almost) wherever 5G / 3GPP is going  … in terms of use-case, frequencies & business-models ◼ Defend the consumer market with mesh Wi-Fi + cloud control ◼ Take industrial / verticals Wi-Fi much more seriously, and fast  Endorse variants intended for licensed / shared spectrum bands  Engage with Industrial Ethernet / TSN communities more deeply ◼ Wi-Fi Alliance should create a new “Innovation” or “Experimental” track for “lightweight” certification, with low friction & costs (Wi-Fi-E perhaps?)  Capture cool new uses & variations of 802.11 for the Wi-Fi brand  Explicitly recognise that WiFi-E technologies may not interoperate ◼ Stop the stupidity of hotspot log-ins, social connection & privacy abuse Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2019March 2019
  • 21.