The rupee is expected to weaken further against the dollar in the coming months, possibly reaching 50 rupees to the dollar. Foreign exchange reserves declined by $500 million last week. The euro fell against the dollar on Friday following the release of Spain's draft budget. Both the USD/INR and EUR/INR currency pairs are showing bearish trends according to technical analysis. Key economic data and central bank meetings from the US and Europe are expected in the coming week.

1. WEEKLY FOREX REPORT
1ST OCTOBER 2012
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2.  HEADLINES
Rupee to touch 50-mark against dollar in 2-4
months: Govt
The government on Friday said the rupee could touch
the 50-mark to a dollar in the next four months on the
back of strong inflow of foreign currency."If rupee
further strengthens, which we hope it will, with the
steps the government is taking, we expect it could even
touch 50 in the next 2-3 months or four months,"
Department of Economic Affairs secretary Arvind
Mayaram told reporters here.
 RBI REFERENCE RATE Forex reserves slip $ 500 million to $ 293.97
billion
As on 28th September 2012
The foreign exchange reserves fell by $ 502.4 million
to $ 293.97 billion due to fall in the currency assets,
according to Reserve Bank data released today. The
UNDERLYING RATE
total reserves had risen $ 2.44 billion to $ 294.47
USDINR 52.6970 billion in the previous reporting week.
EURINR 68.1485
Sterling falls vs euro on Spain's draft budget
GBPINR 85.7117 Sterling fell against the euro on Friday after investors
JPYINR 68.0000 gave a cautious welcome to Spain's 2013 draft budget,
although losses were expected to be capped by
uncertainty over when the country may ask for a
bailout.
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3. PRODUCT EXP DATE OPEN HIGH LOW CLOSE LTP CHG PERCENTAGE
NAME CHANGE
DAILY MARKET STATISTICS (As on 28thSeptember 2012)
CHANA 7/19/2012 4556 4573 4525 4560 4532 -28 -0.61
Prev.
Symbol Series/Expiry Unit Open High Low Close
CHILLI 7/19/2012 5060 5060 5018 5120 5018 -102 -1.99
Close
EUR-INR
GUR 29-Oct-2012
7/19/2012 1188 EUR 1188 68.4000
1 1178 68.6600 68.2000
1183.5 1178 68.5550
-5.5 68.6025
-0.46
EUR-INR
JEERA 27-Nov-2012 14955EUR 1496068.5300
7/19/2012 1 14650 68.7850 68.4150
15052.5 14800 68.7250
-252.5 68.8300
-1.68
GBP-INR
KAPAS 29-Oct-2012
7/19/2012 1044 GBP 1053 86.1000
1 1035 86.1000 85.5125
1049 1041 85.9050
-8 86.3625
-0.76
GBP-INR
PEPPER 27-Nov-2012 42300GBP 4255586.1000
7/19/2012 1 42250 86.1800 85.7800
42390 42435 86.1450
45 86.5550
0.11
JPY-INR
REF SOYA 29-Oct-2012
7/19/2012 780.5 JPY 783.668.3000
100 777.4 68.3400 67.8400
782.85 781.3 68.2875
-1.55 68.6325
-0.2
JPY-INR
SOY BEAN 27-Nov-2012
7/19/2012 4309 JPY 4330 68.2900
100 4265.5 68.5250 68.0600
4303 4315 68.4675
12 68.7825
0.28
USD-INR
TURMERIC 29-Oct-2012
7/19/2012 4600 USD 4676 53.1000
1 4518 53.1100 52.7225
4664 4540 53.0525
-124 53.3400
-2.66
USD-INR
WHEAT 27-Nov-2012
7/19/2012 1251 USD 1282 53.2525
1 1251 53.3225 52.9350
1246 1282 53.2550
36 53.5275
2.89
USD-INR 27-Dec-2012 1 USD 53.5100 53.5200 53.1600 53.4800 53.7925
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4.  WEEKLY USD/INR CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 53.5200
HIGH: 53.5375
LOW: 52.7225
CLOSE: 53.0525
USD/INR LOOKS DOWNWARDS
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE

5.  WEEKLY EUR/INR CHART
ANALYSIS
OPEN: 69.2100
HIGH: 69.2850
LOW: 68.2000
CLOSE: 68.5550
EUR/INR LOOKS DOWNWARDS
TREND: BEARISH
STRATEGY: SELL ON RISE
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6. FOREX FORTHCOMING EVENTS
DAY TIME CURRENCY DETAILS ACTUAL FORECAST PREVIOUS
MONDAY 10.00PM USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks
TUESDAY 7.30 PM USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.0 49.6
WEDNESDAY 7.30PM USD New Home Sales 381K 372K
THURSDAY 6.00 PM EUR ECB Press Conference
THURSDAY 11.30 USD FOMC Meeting Minutes
PM
FRIDAY 6.00 PM USD Unemployment Rate 8.2% 8.1%
FRIDAY 6.00 PM USD Non-Farm Employment Change 111K 96K
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