The document discusses several experts who predict collapses of capitalism, globalization, the environment, society, and civilization overall in the 21st century. These include Immanuel Wallerstein, Michael Roberts, José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, John Casti, and Edgar Morin. They warn of threats like economic crisis, wars, climate change, loss of biodiversity, pandemics, and infrastructure breakdown. The document argues that these looming collapses can only be avoided by establishing a democratic world government that can govern and control systems to prevent harmful consequences for humanity.

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THE COLLAPSES THAT THREATEN HUMANITY IN THE 21ST CENTURY
AND HOW TO AVOID THEIR HARMFUL CONSEQUENCES
Fernando Alcoforado*
This article aims to demonstrate that the world is evolving towards the collapses of
capitalism, globalization, environmental, social, humanitarian and everything in the 21st
century that impose the need for the existence of a world democratic government that is
capable of avoiding its harmful consequences. The sociologist Immanuel Wallerstein in
his work O Universalismo europeu: a retórica do poder [European Universalism: the
rhetoric of power (São Paulo: Editora Bomtempo, 2007)] and the economist Michael
Roberts in the article The Great Recession: a Marxist View, published on the website
<https://files.libcom.org/files/The%20Great%20Recession%20-
%20Profit%20cycles,%20economic%20crisis.pdf> predicted the collapse of capitalism
and globalization in the 21st century. José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, PhD in Demography,
in an article entitled Antropoceno: a Era do colapso ambiental (Anthropocene: the Era
of environmental collapse), published on the website
<https://cee.fiocruz.br/?q=node/1106>, stated that the Earth can evolve to environmental
and social collapse. John Casti, mathematician and PhD, specialist in systems and
complexity theories, predicted the collapse of everything when he stated in his book O
Colapso de Tudo - Os Eventos Extremos que Podem Destruir a Civilização a Qualquer
Momento [The Collapse of Everything - The Extreme Events that Can Destroy
Civilization at Any Time) (Rio: Editora Intrínseca Ltda., 2012)] that our society is
becoming so interconnected and complex that collapse is almost inevitable and, Edgar
Morin, French anthropologist, sociologist and philosopher, researcher emeritus at CNRS
(Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique de Paris), stated in his book Vers l 'abîme?
(Towards the abyss?) (Cahiers de L’Herne, 2007) that humanity evolves towards
humanitarian collapse when considering the inevitability of disaster in the face of human
inability to formulate a policy of civilization and humanity.
Immanuel Wallerstein states in his work O Universalismo europeu: a retórica do poder
(European Universalism: the rhetoric of power) that the world as we know it is over.
Capitalism is ending because of the limits imposed on capital accumulation, on the one
hand, and the collapse of its political support, on the other. As the system collapses, the
social order also crumbles, nationally and internationally. Wallerstein predicted a series
of bloody and inconclusive wars, but also internal social turmoil in each country. Michael
Roberts states in the article The Great Recession: a Marxist View that, according to the
World Trade Organization, a key indicator of “globalization,” the ratio of world exports
to world GDP, remained virtually unchanged between 1870 and the First World War; it
then fell by almost 40% in the interwar period; increased 50% from 1950-70; then
stagnated until the 1990s, taking off until the Great Recession of 2009; After that, in the
Long Depression of the 2010s, this indicator fell by about 12%, a decline not seen since
the 1970s. Michael Roberts argues that globalization will not end if capitalism gains a
new lease on life based on growing and sustained profitability that seems unlikely to
happen given the prospect of a new crisis in the coming years and perhaps more wars.
José Eustáquio Diniz Alves stated in an article entitled Anthropocene: the Era of
environmental collapse, that the Earth could enter a situation with a climate so hot that it
could raise global average temperatures to up to five degrees Celsius above pre-industrial
temperatures. This would have several implications, such as acidification of soil and
water and an increase in ocean levels of between 10 and 60 meters. Global warming will
be comprehensive, will have a very rapid impact and will last a long time, it will promote

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the extinction of species with the reduction of biodiversity, in addition to the loss of soil
fertility, in a situation of water crisis, which could be a harbinger of an environmental
collapse and social. John Casti states in his work O Colapso de Tudo - Os Eventos
Extremos que Podem Destruir a Civilização a Qualquer Momento (The Collapse of
Everything - The Extreme Events That Could Destroy Civilization at Any Time) that our
society is becoming so interconnected and complex that collapse is almost inevitable.
Casti opened the X-Center in early 2012, a study center based in Vienna to analyze the
possibility of disasters and develop ways to prevent them. John Casti uses mathematics
and computer models to analyze complex systems. At the X-Center in Vienna, John Casti
develops models to study possible events, what conditions lead to their occurrence and
how to prevent them.
According to Casti, humanity is currently experiencing an overload of complexity. All
the infrastructures necessary to maintain the current lifestyle are built extremely
dependent on each other. To illustrate, Casti states that the Internet depends on electrical
energy, which in turn depends on coal, gas, nuclear or hydroelectric plants, which, in turn,
depend on the Internet to operate. The problem is that when the complexity becomes too
great, the system can collapse unexpectedly. Casti calls this disruption an event X. The
expression, event X, is short for extreme event. Furthermore, in mathematics, X
represents the unknown. All X events are similar, having a very random component,
which is the trigger that starts the event. Casti is trying to develop at the X-Center some
ways to anticipate the conditions of X events. According to Casti, humanity has become
more vulnerable to an extreme event. Current global infrastructures are similar to a house
of cards. Because of all the connectivity between our infrastructures, it doesn't take a huge
shock to bring down the entire system. If someone catches the flu in one part of the planet,
for example, it can quickly be transmitted elsewhere and become a global pandemic. We
are more vulnerable than ever.
In his book O Colapso de Tudo (The Collapse of Everything), Casti presents scenarios of
a widespread and long-lasting disruption of the Internet, the depletion of the global food
supply system, a continental electromagnetic pulse that destroys all electronic devices,
the collapse of globalization, the destruction of the Earth by the creation of exotic
particles, the destabilization of the nuclear situação, the end of the global oil supply, a
global pandemic, the lack of electricity and drinking water, intelligent robots that overtake
humanity, global deflation and collapse of world financial markets. In turn, in his book
Vers l’abîme ? (Towards the abyss?), Edgar Morin considers the inevitability of the
disaster that threatens humanity in which, according to him, the improbable becomes
possible. The title of the book in the form of a question deals with the certainty of the
abyss. Will humanity avoid this disaster or start over from the disaster? Edgar Morin
proves that the global crisis has worsened and dominant political thought is incapable of
formulating a policy of civilization and humanity. The world is at the beginning of chaos,
and the only prospect is a metamorphosis, with the emergence of forces of transformation
and regeneration. In the planetary crisis, the only prospect of salvation lies in what will
simultaneously bring conservation and transformation, a true metamorphosis. According
to Morin, this transformation must be developed within each individual, in the
irremediable modification of mentalities.
Morin states that Modernity created three myths: that of controlling the universe, that of
progress and the achievement of happiness. The enormous development of science,
technology, economy, and capitalism has increased invention in an unprecedented way,
but also the capacity for destruction. The reason inherited from the Enlightenment
imposed the idea of a totally intelligible universe. Edgar Morin states that scientific and

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technical progress has allowed human emancipation as always, but the collective death
of humanity has also become possible as never before. Morin defends the thesis that
progress brings with it the certainty of death. This century is the greatest promise and also
the greatest threat to humanity! Technological, scientific, medical and social progress
manifests itself in the form of wars, environmental devastation, cultural destruction,
creation of new inequalities and new servitudes. The current development model ignores
anything that is not calculable and measurable. Rationalization based on calculation is
reduced to the economic, ignoring people's lives and feelings. Morin defends the thesis
that world society is not yet civilized, on the contrary, it is barbaric and that barbarism,
cruelty, the shadow of death, and Western individualism need to be overcome by a
revolution in people's psychic interiority. Unfortunately, government policies ignore the
need to reform minds and people. Alongside this, a new dominant and exploitative class
emerged, worse than the previous ones.
Morin states that we are facing the failure of the Enlightenment and its promises. This
makes there a need for a true transformation in the global social organization through a
new type of society. The greatest crisis experienced by humanity today is the intellectual
crisis of thought, which constitutes the main obstacle to overcoming other crises and
building a new society centered on real economic, political, social and environmental
progress. The intellectual crisis of thought in the contemporary era is what makes the
world in which we live operate in a chaotic way like a ship adrift towards disaster. We
need a new Enlightenment for the 21st century. At the heart of new thinking must be the
protection of all forms of life and the planet. The only humanly relevant progress is that
which actually contributes to the well-being of all human beings and the preservation of
nature, which the automatisms of economic growth are not enough to ensure. Progress,
in this sense, should not be seen as a spontaneous donation of technology, but an
intentional construction through which men decide what should be produced, how and
for whom, avoiding as much as possible the social and ecological costs of savage
industrialization. This progress cannot depend either on isolated business decisions, as
advocated by the ideologues of neoliberalism, nor on the bureaucratic guidelines of a
centralizing State, as defended by the ideologues of Soviet-style socialism, but rather on
impulses emanating from society itself.
The Enlightenment of the 21st century maintains its faith in science, but knows that it
needs to be socially controlled and that scientific and technological research needs to obey
the ends and values established based on social consensus, so that it does not become a
blind force, the service of war and capital domination. It assumes the doctrine of human
rights as its most valuable banner, without ignoring the fact that in the majority of
humanity, only profound social and political reforms can ensure their effective
enjoyment. Combat illegitimate power, aware that it is not only located in the tyrannical
State, but also in society, in which it has become invisible and total, molecular and diffuse,
imprisoning the individual within its meshes as securely as in the era of absolute
monarchy. Fight without quarter for freedom and against oppression of any kind. Build a
new world order that is capable of organizing not only relationships between men on the
face of the Earth, but also their relationships with nature. Develop a planetary social
contract that enables economic and social development and the rational use of nature's
resources for the benefit of all humanity.
It is quite evident from the views of Immanuel Wallerstein, Michael Roberts, José
Eustáquio Diniz Alves, John Casti and Edgar Morin that the world is evolving towards
the collapse of globalization, the environmental and social collapse, the humanitarian
collapse and the collapse of everything. There is an urgent need to build a new society

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diametrically opposed to the current one across the world, as proposed by Morin. A new
society will have to emerge and it will only be viable if it is led by a democratic world
government that is capable of planning and controlling existing chaotic systems to avoid
the harmful consequences for humanity of the collapse of everything, as predicted by
Immanuel Wallerstein, Michael Roberts, José Eustáquio Diniz Alves, John Casti and
Edgar Morin. Only in this way will it be possible to avoid the harmful consequences on
humanity caused by the collapse of the world economy, the environmental and social
collapse, the collapse of the international system, the exhaustion of the planet's natural
resources especially water and oil, the disorderly growth of cities and the catastrophic
global climate change, in addition to the lack of control over internet and energy systems
and the emergence of new global pandemics, ultimately avoiding the consequences of the
collapse of everything.
The great obstacle to the advent of a world government is represented by national
governments, especially by the great powers, which do not give up on intervening
globally in defense of their interests. The great powers do not accept a world government
to continue their domination at a global level and the governments of other countries cling
to the defense of their sovereignty, opposing the existence of a world government because
they believe that they would be their vassals. However, in the new international system
that would replace the current one, the democratic world government would only act to
make the economic system and the international system evolve for the benefit of all
countries in an environment of peace and concord among nations. Each country would be
sovereign to act within the limits of its territory and not to intervene in the internal affairs
of other countries. What would not be accepted is any country intervening with the use
of force in the internal affairs of other countries, as has happened throughout history. The
world democratic government would guarantee respect for the sovereignty of the world's
countries, especially the weakest. The absence of a world government would represent a
threat to the national sovereignty of most countries because they would be at the mercy
of the strongest, as has been the case throughout history. If any country compromises the
environment of peace between nations by intervening in the internal affairs of another
country, the world government would act to prevent the aggressor from achieving his
goals through diplomatic action or, in the event of failure, including the use of force. To
this end, the world government would call on the armed forces of certain countries to
fulfill the role of preventing any country from intervening in another using force.
If there were a world government, it would be possible to prevent war crimes from being
committed by Hamas on October 7, with a surprise attack on Israel, killing more than
1,400 Israeli civilians and capturing more than 200 hostages, and by the Israeli
government, which reacted with indiscriminate bombings against Hamas and also against
the civilian population that have already killed around 7,000 people in the Gaza Strip and
ordered a complete siege of Gaza with the suspension of the supply of electricity, food,
water and fuel. It should be noted that the basic rules of international law establish that
parties involved in conflicts must distinguish between civilians and enemy combatants.
Neither Hamas, which governs the Gaza Strip, nor the Israeli government is making a
distinction between the civilian population and enemy combatants because they are
attacking both. Due to this fact, the Israeli government and the Hamas command are
committing war crimes and should be punished by the International Criminal Court. The
regrettable thing is that this conflict could also contribute to the occurrence of a new
regional war between Israel and Arab countries and even a new world war if the great
powers become directly involved in the conflict. None of this would happen if there were
a world government that would mediate the conflict with diplomatic action and, in case

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of failure, with the use of force to ensure peace with the use of armed forces from the
countries that are part of the new international system that will be created.
The rulers and people of all countries in the world need to become aware that the chaos
that characterizes the operation of current world systems in terms of economic,
environmental and international relations results from their ungovernability, which will
only be overcome with the existence of a democratic world government to promote
progress for the benefit of all the people of the world and the ordering of the world
economy and the global environment, as well as the realization of world peace by dealing
with the threats of the collapses of capitalism, globalization, environmental, social,
humanitarian and everything in the 21st century with its harmful consequences that
threaten the survival of humanity. Only in this way will humanity avoid the abyss of total
collapse.
* Fernando Alcoforado, awarded the medal of Engineering Merit of the CONFEA / CREA System, member
of the Bahia Academy of Education, of the SBPC- Brazilian Society for the Progress of Science and of
IPB- Polytechnic Institute of Bahia, engineer from the UFBA Polytechnic School and doctor in Territorial
Planning and Regional Development from the University of Barcelona, college professor (Engineering,
Economy and Administration) and consultant in the areas of strategic planning, business planning, regional
planning, urban planning and energy systems, was Advisor to the Vice President of Engineering and
Technology at LIGHT S.A. Electric power distribution company from Rio de Janeiro, Strategic Planning
Coordinator of CEPED- Bahia Research and Development Center, Undersecretary of Energy of the State
of Bahia, Secretary of Planning of Salvador, is the author of the books Globalização (Editora Nobel, São
Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998),
Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000), Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do
Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de
Barcelona,http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento (Editora
Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos Estratégicos
na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the Economic and Social
Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG,
Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe Planetária (Viena- Editora e Gráfica,
Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e combate
ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011), Os Fatores
Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), Energia no
Mundo e no Brasil- Energia e Mudança Climática Catastrófica no Século XXI (Editora CRV, Curitiba,
2015), As Grandes Revoluções Científicas, Econômicas e Sociais que Mudaram o Mundo (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2016), A Invenção de um novo Brasil (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2017), Esquerda x Direita e a sua
convergência (Associação Baiana de Imprensa, Salvador, 2018), Como inventar o futuro para mudar o
mundo (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2019), A humanidade ameaçada e as estratégias para sua sobrevivência
(Editora Dialética, São Paulo, 2021), A escalada da ciência e da tecnologia e sua contribuição ao progresso
e à sobrevivência da humanidade (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2022), a chapter in the book Flood Handbook
(CRC Press, Boca Raton, Florida United States, 2022), How to protect human beings from threats to their
existence and avoid the extinction of humanity (Generis Publishing, Europe, Republic of Moldova,
Chișinău, 2023) and A revolução da educação necessária ao Brasil na era contemporânea (Editora CRV,
Curitiba, 2023).