TASK - Perceptions of Peace and Stability in South of Kyrgyzstan - Final Draft

Perceptions of Peace and Stability in South Kyrgyzstan
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Perceptions of Peace and Stability
in South Kyrgyzstan
November 2012
Conflict Mitigation and Peace Building in Kyrgyzstan -
Programme funded by the European Union’s Instrument for Stability
The Action is funded by
the European Union
The Action is managed and
implemented by the TASK
Consortium and local partners

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Funded by: European Union, Instrument for Stability
Implemented by: Agency for Technical Cooperation and Development (ACTED)
Lead Author: Matthew Lucas (ACTED, TASK Project Manager)
Research Team: Byron Pakula (ACTED, Country Director Kyrgyzstan)
Pataev Maksatbek (ACTED Project Coordinator)
Yann Kerblat (ACTED, AMEU Intern)
Vera Scholtz (ACTED, AMEU Intern)
Aiperi Kalybekova (ACTED, AMEU Officer)
Farhod Tolipov (ACTED, AMEU Officer)
Emma Pakula (DCA, Monitoring and Evaluation Specialist)
Dariha Erketaeva (DCA, TASK Coordinator)
Date of Publication: November 2012
Reference: ACTED, “Perceptions of Peace and Stability in South Kyrgyzstan”, Osh 2012.
Contacts: ACTED
House #1, Street10, Q15a
723500 Osh, Kyrgyz Republic
E-mail: Matthew.Lucas@acted.org or Byron.Pakula@acted.org
Tel: +996 (322) 2559 80 / 86
www.acted.org
TASK c/o ACT Alliance
402 Frunze Street
720033 Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic
E-Mail: Task.Coordinator@gmail.com
Tel: +996 312 32 32 98
www.danchurchaid.org
Reviewed by the TASK Board of Directors (ACTED, DCA, DRC, IA, ICCO, HELVETAS and STC)

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This publication has been produced with the assistance of the European Union. The contents of this publication are the sole
responsibility of the TASK consortium and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union.

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Acronyms and Terminology
AO Ayil Okmotu, Administrative subdivision of rayon
CDWUU Community Drinking Water User Unions
EU European Union
IfS Instrument for Stability
KGS Kyrgyzstani Som
Oblast Administrative division, equivalent to province
Rayon Administrative subdivision of oblast, equivalent to district
REACH REACH is a programme of IMPACT that supports planning and coordination. IMPACT Initiatives is a
Swiss-registered Association that advocates and promotes development and humanitarian issues
related to countries in crisis or at risk of crisis
TASK Transition and Rehabilitation Alliance for Southern Kyrgyzstan
WUA Water Users Association

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Contents
Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................................... vi
Introduction....................................................................................................................................................... 1
Methodology...................................................................................................................................................... 2
Survey Design................................................................................................................................................. 2
Sampling........................................................................................................................................................ 2
Biases and Distributions to Consider ................................................................................................................ 2
Perceptions of Economic Influences on Peace and Stability................................................................................... 4
Primary Income Sources and the Insufficiency of Household Income Levels ....................................................... 4
Conflict Potential: Economic Vulnerability........................................................................................................4
Conflict Potential: General............................................................................................................................... 5
Conflict Potential: Crop Agriculture.................................................................................................................. 6
Conflict Potential: Animal Husbandry............................................................................................................... 7
Conflict Potential: Urban.................................................................................................................................8
Private Sector Employment............................................................................................................................. 9
Remittances and Social Benefits ...................................................................................................................... 9
Public Sector Employment............................................................................................................................... 9
Perceptions of Social Influences on Peace and Stability....................................................................................... 11
Access to Social Services................................................................................................................................ 11
Education..................................................................................................................................................... 11
Health Services............................................................................................................................................. 12
Justice.......................................................................................................................................................... 12
Water and Sanitation.................................................................................................................................... 14
Perceptions and Social Identifiers .................................................................................................................. 15
Perceptions of Inequality............................................................................................................................... 15
Trust............................................................................................................................................................ 16
Participation in Government and Society........................................................................................................ 17
Summary: Perceived Socio-Economic Drivers of Disputes, Conflicts and Peace..................................................... 19
Conclusion: Development of a Holistic Peacebuilding Programme ....................................................................... 20
Early-warning............................................................................................................................................... 20
Primary responsiveness................................................................................................................................. 20
Secondary Responsiveness............................................................................................................................ 21
References....................................................................................................................................................... 23
Contacts........................................................................................................................................................... 24

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Executive Summary
The violence throughout South Kyrgyzstan in June 2010, which left hundreds dead and shredded the fabric of local
society, was both symptomatic of systemic governance failures and indicative of a non-response to decades of latent
conflict triggers and underlying sources of tension. Although a relative calm has prevailed over the previous two years,
the absence of conflict should not be confused with peace or reconciliation.
Following the events of June 2010, TASK, an alliance of international non-governmental organizations, was founded in
order to coordinate programming and to work strategically towards a holistic approach that responded to not only the
symptomatic outbreaks of violence, but to the social and economic instability and inequality that had engendered the
environment conducive to them.
Through the European Commission-funded Conflict Mitigation and Peace Building in Kyrgyzstan programme, which began
in November 2011, members of TASK conducted the largest household survey in South Kyrgyzstan since the violence of
June 2010 in an effort to collect data on a range of socio-economic issues. Although the data collection was originally
envisioned as a baseline for the programme, the purpose of this report is to share the findings from 1,733 household
surveys, in order to contribute to the understanding of disputes and conflict potential throughout the region.
It is important to note that although ethnicity plays a strong and visible role in South Kyrgyzstan, this report studies the
economic and social factors that can create the environment necessary for ‘inter-ethnic’ conflict to manifest itself and, as
such, the vehicle of conflict should not be confused with its root causes. These factors, including issues outside the scope
of this report such as the increasing nationalist rhetoric and the north-south divide, are important for understanding the
complex dynamics of conflict in South Kyrgyzstan. It is clear that comprehensive programming, taking into account these
inter-locking relationships, is essential to responding to larger, systemic, issues and not merely their symptomatic
manifestations.
Perceptions of Economic Influences on Peace and Stability
Regarding the economic influences on peace and stability, it is clear that rural respondents are heavily reliant on crop
agriculture and animal husbandry activities for their primary income, although these appear unable to provide sufficient
income necessary to cover their basic household needs. In fact, the proportion of rural households facing poverty
exceeded official national statistics. Urban respondents, though having higher monthly household income nonetheless
also had significant levels of income insufficiency. Both sets of respondents also had high levels of primary income that
had been negatively affected by recent conflicts.
Bearing this economic situation in mind, respondents typically agreed that issues of unemployment, inequality and
unfairness, poverty and governance carried high potential for both inter- and intra-communal conflicts. Urban
respondents also identified discrimination, which scarcely arose among rural respondents. Respondents also agreed on
the issues inhibiting their economic development, namely the difficulty in selling products in the market (32%) and
inability to access credit or loans (14%). The difficulties inherent in these two issues indicate flaws within the larger
economic sphere and failures within micro-economic markets. Given the prevalence of income insufficiency and
economic fragility, coupled with the high conflict potential placed on issues of unemployment, poverty and inequality, the
potential for inter and intra-communal conflicts in South Kyrgyzstan is high, and will remain so unless significant
transformation is undertaken to respond to these issues.
 Crop Agriculture
Looking specifically at those respondents whose primary income is derived from crop agriculture, the irrigation
infrastructure throughout South Kyrgyzstan is extensive and complex. It is, unfortunately, collapsing and conflict
over access and use of the irrigation water is likely to increase. In fact, a relative majority of rural crop
agriculturalists noted that poor access and infrastructure, as well as unequal distribution, poorly defined
property rights and the lack of sharing arrangements were the main issues preventing access to community
resources. Inequality and unfairness, as mentioned, carry high conflict potential and as a result of the rural
respondents’ heavy reliance on the irrigation infrastructure, crop agriculture is considered one of the most
volatile economic sectors in South Kyrgyzstan.
In response, Water Users Associations (WUAs), local bodies tasked with canal maintenance and irrigation water
distribution, have been created throughout South Kyrgyzstan. Despite some weaknesses, the establishment of
such maintenance and governance mechanisms is crucial for increasing economic potential through improved

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access and distribution. The WUAs, in their role of irrigation water distribution by a legitimate and communally
accepted management system, can also contribute to the reduction of conflict potential stemming from opaque
or unfair irrigation water allocation.
 Animal Husbandry
Rural respondents whose primary income is generated by animal husbandry have had to overcome a history of
Soviet pasture practices, which sought to maximize short-term production at the expense of the long term
carrying capacity of pastures in South Kyrgyzstan, which resulted in land degradation, soil erosion and
increasing communal tensions. Following independence, these poor pasture use practices continued and a
significant majority of individuals throughout the region voiced concern at the persistent decline of pasture
quality. In fact, animal husbandry respondents shared many of the concerns of the crop agriculturalists, namely
poor access and infrastructure, unequal distribution and the lack of sharing arrangements. These issues have
been exacerbated by unclear demarcation of pasture borders and the inability of local authorities to adequately
govern pasture use, resulting in increased tensions and hindered economic development.
In response, Pasture Committees, bodies of experienced pastoralists, have earned a mandate to govern pasture access
and use on a local level. By overseeing the creation and implementation of pasture management plans, these committees
seek to ensure sustainable use, mediate conflicts and, through the collection of fees, improve pasture infrastructure.
Strong Pasture Committees, therefore, are well placed to proactively respond to many of the issues facing pasture users
throughout South Kyrgyzstan.
Unlike rural respondents, whose primary income is typically generated by either crop agriculture or animal husbandry,
urban respondents noted a significantly more diverse array of economic opportunities. It should be noted though, that
due to the small urban sample size, it is difficult to make generalizations about the urban responses. In this report, these
primary income sources are presented as the following three income sectors:
 Private Sector Employment
This income sector includes those involved in small business, trade, labour and salaried employment, comprising
38% of the urban respondents. 75% of these respondents noted that their income had been negatively affected
by recent conflicts, which, considering the violence of June 2010, is unsurprising. Of the three different income
sectors, these respondents also had the highest proportion of respondents with a household income of less than
5,000 KGS a month, though, interestingly, the lowest proportion of respondents with income insufficient to cover
their basic needs. It is clear that due to the high levels of conflict-affected income and the low levels of household
income, private sector individuals are highly vulnerable.
 Remittances and Social Benefits
This sector includes the 31% of urban respondents whose primary income is derived from remittances,
government allowances and support from non-governmental organizations. 42% of these respondents noted
household income lower than 5,000 KGS a month, making them, by this measure, better off than private sector
individuals. Their income was also less conflict-affected than those individuals as well.
 Public Sector Employment
Lastly, the public sector, representing 19% of urban respondents, includes such professions as doctors, teachers,
government administrators and others. It is noticeably better positioned than either of the previous income
sectors, having the lowest proportion of respondents with household income below 5,000 KGS a month, as well
as the least likely to have conflict-affected income.
Perceptions of Social Influences on Peace and Stability
Economics binds individuals to larger markets in the same manner that social structures bind individuals to larger
communities. Levels of trust, access to social services, perceptions of differences (and similarities), histories of disputes
and their method of resolution all play important roles in shaping the collectivity and cohesion of any particular
community. The report divides these issues into two broad categories: 1) social services provided (or not) by an
identifiable party and 2) thoughts, beliefs, biases and perceptions existent within respondents in order to better
understand the ‘social environment’ that the respondents operate within.

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Firstly, regarding access to social services, the report will review rates of access and other issues related to the services
of Education, Health, Justice and Water and Sanitation.
 Education
Following independence, the quality of education in Kyrgyzstan deteriorated rapidly and many schools lack
textbooks, teaching equipment or current curriculums. Additionally, the influx of new teachers into the
education system is insufficient, in terms of size or quality, to replace the existing, Soviet-trained, teaching staff.
As a result, nearly 20% of respondents noted poor access to educational opportunities, laying the foundation for
future conflicts throughout South Kyrgyzstan. A poor education often does not provide students with the skills
required to secure meaningful employment, increasing the likelihood of future unemployment and inequality,
both of which have been identified as carrying high conflict potential.
 Health
Much like education, healthcare has seen a collapse of basic infrastructure since independence and
approximately 1 in 4 respondents stated that they had little or no access to healthcare. As doctors and nurses
leave, the replacement rate has been insufficient to meet the needs of the population. While quality healthcare
certainly exists in Bishkek, it is not necessarily available to everyone, further increasing perceptions of inequality
within the country.
 Justice
The respondents, in general, felt that justice was typically an unattainable service, with the poor quality of
services (29%), financial barriers (21%) and the fact that the services are not available (11%) as the main
reasons preventing access. A significant portion of respondents also noted the incidences, within their
communities, where disputes had not been satisfactorily resolved. Firstly, in terms of quality, it appears to be a
question of poor governance, and the existence of distorting factors is apparent. Secondly, as discussed, many of
the respondents noted that their household incomes were already insufficient for basic needs. As a result, it is
unlikely that these households would have sufficient income available to engage with the justice system. Lastly,
in terms of non-accessibility, the respondents noted a heavy reliance on elders or informal justice structures in
order to advance their claims. In fact, the majority of rural respondents selected elders as the individual or
institution that typically resolves disputes within their communities. While this proportion is certainly lower in
urban areas, it nonetheless exposes the importance that individuals throughout South Kyrgyzstan place on
mediation and dispute resolution activities that fall outside of traditional government structures.
 Water and Sanitation
Drinking water access remains a significant issue throughout South Kyrgyzstan, with much of the Soviet -era
infrastructure collapsing. Local authorities are frequently unable to respond to this collapse and, as a result,
many respondents, especially in the rural areas, noted a dramatic decline in their access to drinking water. Often,
people also rely on irrigation canals for their drinking water access, increasing the likelihood of illness, as well as
inter-community conflict. Much like many other social resources, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union,
maintenance responsibility for the drinking water systems was disbursed, often to institutions with no financial
resources or capacity. As a result, Community Drinking Water User Unions (CDWUUs), local bodies responsible
for the maintenance and management of the water supply systems, have begun appearing throughout South
Kyrgyzstan as water management has become decentralized.
The pervasiveness of local governance structures, such as WUAs, CDWUUs and courts of elders, indicates substantial
community involvement and participation in the governance of their resources and social services. This involvement is
highly important, especially considering the potential for conflict inherent i n unequal distribution and access to
resources and services. This report also considers the intersection between these governance issues and the social
perceptions of inequality, trust and societal participation. These convictions influence our interactions with the
environment, as well as contribute to our beliefs, values and perceptions.
Social identifiers are not mutually exclusive, one can be Kyrgyz, Muslim or from Mady, and individuals are free to don
whichever particular identifier they choose in a given situation. Identifiers, however, can be as divisive as they can be
inclusive and this report looks at perceptions of similarities and differences, levels of trust, feelings of security and other
social aspects which are harboured on a more individual, and less systemic, level. As the information will show, rural and
urban respondents differ substantially in these perceptions.

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 Perceptions of Inequality
Inequality, unfairness and unemployment are conditions that are frequently tied to numerous economic and
socio-governance issues, including economic opportunities and standards of living. Rural respondents were
nearly twice as likely as their urban counterparts to note equality in the economic opportunities available to
residents of their communities. Rural respondents were also more likely to perceive similar living standards
between their community and those that neighboured their own. As discussed previously, perceptions of
inequality, in terms of opportunities or living standards, can foreshadow conflicts as individuals seek to
redistribute goods or services.
Rural areas are also much more homogenous in their composition than urban areas, with 77% of rural
respondents agreeing or strongly agreeing with the statement that “in this community, most people have the
same religious and cultural beliefs,” whereas urban respondents were actually more likely to disagree than agree
with that statement.
 Trust
As previously shown, the differences between rural and urban responses are often stark and their disparity in
the levels of trust is no different. Considering that rural communities are typically smaller, have stronger intra-
communal relationships and are more homogenous, respondents from rural communities were more than twice
as likely as their urban counterparts to state a high level of trust between ethnicities in their communities.
Interestingly, the youngest age bracket of respondents (18-29) were the most likely to note the presence of
inter-ethnic trust within their communities, which appears contradictory to the findings that show high levels of
participation, by youths from rural mono-ethnic communities, in the June 2010 violence. It is possible, however,
that in homogenous communities with little minority representation, individual inter-ethnic relationships are
easier to cultivate than in more diverse areas can pockets of society can exist autonomously.
Interestingly, the gap between rural and urban respondents continues to widen as the questions of trust become
more narrow, with rural respondents being considerably more trusting than their urban counterparts, both in
regards to intra-regional as well as intra-communal trust.
 Participation in Government and Society
In terms of involvement in society, rural respondents expressed a significant involvement in trust building
activities, such as inter- and intra-community joint activities and volunteerism. Noticeably absent from urban
respondents, participation in these activities may also explain the high levels of trust noted in the previous
section. Coupled with their stated involvement in government processes and decision-making, it is clear that
respondents, especially in the rural areas, consider themselves to be quite active and engaged within their
communities.
Women and youth were both noted to have active and positive involvement in community affairs. Especially
regarding youth, it is interesting to see the positive role they are accorded in engagement in peaceb uilding
activities, considering their reputations to the counter.

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Introduction
TASK, an alliance of international non-governmental organizations (NGOs) advocating for a strategic, coordinated and
holistic approach to addressing the underlying triggers and causes of conflict in the region, was founded in the wake of
the June 2010 violence in South Kyrgyzstan. This inter-communal conflict, primarily in Osh and Jalalabad cities, left
hundreds of people dead, thousands of homes and businesses destroyed and put 400,000 people to flight. This event not
only resulted in a humanitarian emergency, but has also deepened the social and economic instability that has long been
present in the Ferghana Valley. The subsequent absence of open conflict since June 2010 should not be mistaken for
peace however, as many of the same sources of disputes and conflict triggers continue to plague the stability and socio-
economic development of the region. Despite the appearance of relative calm in the affected areas and beyond, the wider
region remains tense and volatile as evidenced by significant protests, political challenges and other numerous micro-
conflicts.
In 2011, a 15 member consortium comprised of TASK agencies, in partnership with national NGOs, designed a
programme entitled Conflict mitigation and peacebuilding in Kyrgyzstan, which began implementation in November,
2011.1,2 This programme, which concludes in April 2013, is funded by the European Union in the framework of the
Instrument for Stability (IfS) programme. It aims at mitigating the socio-economic drivers of conflict and strengthening
community capacity for conflict prevention, mitigation and resolution.
In February and March, 2012, TASK conducted the largest post-conflict household survey in communities throughout
South Kyrgyzstan in order to collect baseline information on a wide range of socio-economic and conflict related issues.3
This included questions related to social infrastructure, economic stability, equality, engagement in governance, the role
of youth, mediators in the community, access to justice, frequency and resolution of disputes and perceptions of trust. By
understanding the communities’ perceptions on this range of issues, it enables practitioners, policy makers and others to
utilise an evidence-based approach to conflict mitigation.
This household survey involved 1,733 respondents from 77 communities in Osh, Jalalabad and Batken oblasts, including
75 rural communities (92% of respondents) as well as Osh and Jalalabad cities (8% of respondents).The multi-thematic
household questionnaire was supplemented by field observation in the surveyed communities, and by additional desk-
top research on economic, social and conflict issues in South Kyrgyzstan that also influenced the data collection tools. In
addition, conflict analysis has been undertaken as part of the TASK project, incorporating over 200 focus groups, which
has been used to inform the methodology and the data analysis.
The purpose of this report is to share these findings so as to contribute to the further understanding of existing and
potential disputes and tensions throughout South Kyrgyzstan – based on people’s perceptions of their own realities, as
well as the foundational issues that underpin their beliefs. Common themes run throughout much of the report, which
speaks of economic fragility, social vulnerability and imperfect governance mechanisms, but also of the peace potential of
youth and local resolutions for local issues. Primary income sources, access to social services, governance and
perceptions of trust and social cohesion are all issues that affected responses. Despite considerable variation among
communities, people generally feel safe and secure in their communities and yet, many of the conditions necessary for
conflict continue to exist and the general understanding is that the situation will maintain its downward trend into the
foreseeable future.4 This report moves beyond anecdotal evidence to uncover not only why people feel safe in their
communities, but perhaps more importantly why not.
The views and findings expressed here are solely those of the respondents and do not necessarily reflect those of the
TASK consortium or the European Union. It is important to note that when referencing conflict in this report, it does not
necessarily refer specifically to the June 2010 events or violence of that scale. Localised conflicts continue to take place,
and, to the people affected, can be just as traumatic or damaging. TASK carried out this assessment as part of the
programme’s baseline study in order to better understand the complex environment of South Kyrgyzstan and to hear
firsthand the opinions, experiences and thoughts of households throughout affected areas.
1ACTED, ACT Alliance(DCA and ICCO), DRC, HELVETASSwiss Intercooperation, International Alert, SaveTheChildren
2BioService, Center Interbilim, Coalition for Democracy and Civil Society, Development and Cooperation in Central Asia, Foundation for Tolerance
International, Legal Perspective, Mehr-Shavkat, Rural Development Fund, TESCentre
3For moreinformation regardingthesurveyitself, pleasecontact ACTED or DCA directly
455% of respondents stated they “always” felt safeand securein their communities

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Methodology
Survey Design
The questionnaire was designed by ACTED and DCA, building on TASK’s existing experiences of conflict prevention in the
Ferghana Valley, and borrowing practices from the international literature of monitoring and evaluation in the
peacebuilding and conflict mitigation sectors. The survey tool includes indicators related to:
 The current trend of inter-communal violence and disputes in Kyrgyzstan
 The presence of factors that drive conflict or that promote peace in communities across South Kyrgyzstan, and
their current levels of influence
 The existing ways communities respond to disputes and potential sources of conflicts and the effectiveness of
these approaches and mechanisms
 The nature of inter- and intra-community relations across South Kyrgyzstan
Sampling
The sample of communities selected for inclusion into the survey was comprised of three components due to the fact that
at the time of sampling, many communities had already been selected for programmatic implementation. Therefore, it
was necessary to utilise a hybrid methodology so that control communities (randomly selected, no interventions) and
impact communities (randomly or otherwise selected, TASK interventions) were both included in the sample in order to
provide the opportunity to identify future attributable and causal effects of the TASK programme. The sampling
methodologies included:
1. A random sample of 20 rural communities in each of the three oblasts identified using a random number
generation methodology from the list of P-codes for each community, creating a statistically significant number
of household surveys including case and controls.5
2. A sub-sample of 139 households from Osh and Jalalabad cities derived using random GPS point generation to
select a list of coordinates / households within each city for survey execution. It is worth noting that urban
responses were segregated from rural responses due to the fact that different types of TASK activities are being
implemented in these areas.
3. An additional cohort of 15 rural communities that were pre-selected for TASK activities were identified using a
purposeful sampling methodology, to ensure deliberate representation of all TASK partners, concen trated areas
of TASK activities and geographical spread. This also ensured the information could be used to influence ex ante
programme design.
Within each community, 20 households were selected using purposeful sampling by the interviewers to survey a
deliberate spread of households across the village. Random selection of the household member, including equal gender
distribution, was attempted by requesting to survey the household with the most recent birthday.
In addition to household surveys, observation sheets were filled in by the enumerators in each community to provide an
overview of the key issues in each community. This included comments on the community itself (e.g. ethnic make up)
and whether there had been a trend in the types of conflicts exposed. This supported the cluster analysis approach, and
was used to inform the analysis of the household surveys.
Biases and Distributions to Consider
It is important to stress that the data collection that underpins this report is overwhelmingly based on rural respondents,
where much of the TASK peacebuilding programmes are targeted, but is not necessarily representative of all
programmes (e.g. mediation of IA or legal aid of DRC) or of all conflicts. As a result, 92% of the respondents are
considered, for this report, to be ‘rural’ respondents (namely, residing in areas other than Osh and Jalalabad cities). The
remaining 8% comprise the urban residents of those two cities. Therefore, because of the rel ative size of the urban
respondent pool, analysis of urban responses is less in-depth and more focused on general thematic issues. Regarding the
gender breakdown, 62% of respondents were male, whereas 38% were female.
5Dueto the fact that surveyingwas undertaken duringthewinter months, it was believed that a number of therandomly selected communities would
be inaccessible due to snow. As a result, additional alternate communities were randomly selected, although a requirement that 75% of the original
random samplefor each oblast was put into place.

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In terms of ethnic distribution, 80% of respondents stated that they were ethnically Kyrgyz, 16% stated that they were
ethnically Uzbek and the remaining 4% were distributed among various ethnicities, such as Russians, Tajiks and others.
These figures differ from the ethnic composition of South Kyrgyzstan as reported through official statistics, which states
that 71% of the population is ethnically Kyrgyz and 25% are ethnically Uzbek.6 It is important to note, however, that
these statistics were collected prior to the violence of June 2010, which many people believe has affected the ethnic
composition of South Kyrgyzstan and these demographic characteristics should be acknowledged when interpreting the
survey results. Before analysing the report, however, it is important to state that mono-ethnicity in communities does not
necessarily equate peace and trust, anymore than multi-ethnicity implies intolerance and suspicion. Economics, social
status, politics and access to resources are only a few of the avenues of conflict which exist, and the presence alone of
multiple ethnicities is not a sufficient answer for anyone seeking to understand the conflict dynamics of South
Kyrgyzstan.
6Kyrgyz Republic. National StatisticsCommitteeof theKyrgyz Republic. Population andHousingCensus 2009. Bishkek. (2010). Web. 20 November 2012.

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Batken respondents perceive themselves as
considerably more vulnerable than those in other
rural locations. For example, 82% of Batken
respondents noted income insufficiency to cover
basic needs. Additionally, they had a higher rate of
conflict affected income, which, at 59%, is nearly
double the rate reported in the overall rural sample,
likely due to the cross-border issues. Although spared
the destruction of the June 2010 violence, it is clear
that lesser known conflicts in Batken are just as
damaging to the lives and livelihoods of affected
households.
Perceptions ofEconomic Influences on Peace and Stability
Primary Income Sources and the Insufficiency of Household Income Levels
The rural regions of South Kyrgyzstan are, by and large, economically fragile areas of the country, heavily reliant on crop
agriculture and animal husbandry, which, in turn, depends on reliable and consistent access to irrigation water, pasture
lands and markets. This is especially evident among rural respondents, 62% of whom stated that their primary income
was derived from either agricultural or livestock activities. Common crops in South Kyrgyzstan include such staples as
cotton, rice and wheat, although others, such as tobacco, corn, potatoes and sunflowers are also widespread. Goats,
sheep, cows and poultry are prevalent in livestock rearing, although ownership of horses, due to their expense, is
relatively limited. Interestingly, only 4% of rural respondents stated that remittances from family members were their
primary income source. While although it is apparent that Kyrgyzstan is a net recipient of remittances, in fact one of the
most remittance dependent countries in the world, rural respondents are either under-reporting their reliance on
remittances or consider it a supplementary, and not a primary, source of income.7
The primary incomes of rural respondents, therefore, often hinge on the ability to plant, harvest, process and sell their
crops or rear, feed and market their animals or meat products. Other avenues of income, such as day labour, trade,
business and remittances are certainly available, though much of this remains in the informal sector and are far from
stable. The majority of rural respondents (67%) stated that the average monthly income of their household was less than
5,000 KGS per month (or just over $100 USD per month). This proportion is significantly greater than national poverty
rate, as measured by an individual’s ability to purchase a pre-identified ‘basket of goods,’ which states that 34% of the
population lives in poverty.8 Likely due to the fact that the research was undertaken largely in the rural areas of South
Kyrgyzstan, this discrepancy highlights rural-urban and other inequalities.
The proximity of many of these households to the poverty
line signals that, for many of the respondents, their income-
generating activities barely provide subsistence and
certainly not growth. In fact, the same percentage of rural
respondents (67%) noted that their household income was
insufficient to cover even their basic needs, such as food,
shelter, or clothing, which undoubtedly is a contributing
factor to the high levels of outward migration from the rural
areas. Furthermore, one in three rural respondents (33%)
noted that their already insufficient incomes had been
affected by recent conflicts.
In contrast to the rural areas, urban respondents have a
much more diversified set of income sources. Additionally, although urban respondents noted higher levels of income
overall, half of the respondents stated that their monthly household income was at or below 5,000 KGS. While, at first
glance, this data seems to show lower levels of economic vulnerability, the increased cost of living in the cities of Osh and
Jalalabad drives down the overall sufficiency of household income. In fact, 76% of urban respondents noted that their
incomes were insufficient to meet their basic needs; a higher proportion than the rural respondents. As with rural
respondents, this income insufficiency fuels high levels of migration as people search for better economic opportunities
elsewhere. Additionally, urban respondents had an appreciably higher proportion of individuals whose income had been
affected by conflict (65%), which is understandable considering the violent events of June 2010 in Osh and Jalalabad
cities.
Conflict Potential: Economic Vulnerability
Bearing this economic vulnerability in mind, it is important to note the significance that respondents placed on different
factors in regards to their perceived conflict potential. For example, the most salient intra-communal conflict issues
identified by rural respondents were unemployment, inequality and unfairness, poverty and governance. Such
perceptions can potentially create the environment necessary to provoke actions based on the theory of relative
7Camm, George. “Tajikistan TopsRemittance-Dependency Ranking.” Eurasianet 6 December 2011. Web. 18 November 2012.
8Central IntelligenceAgency. World Fact Book. Web. 23 November 2012.

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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
To a very
small extent
To a small
extent
Neither
small nor
great
To a great
extent
To a very
great extent
Proportionoftotalrespondents
Extent ofeconomic opportunities for youth
Chart 1: Overall Reported Levels of the Extent of Economic
Opportunities for Youth in Your Community
deprivation, in which inequality, real or perceived, among groups and/or individuals may cause them to act, potentially
violently, politically or otherwise, to redistribute the resources seen as unfairly allocated.
Urban respondents also identified unemployment as having high potential for intra-communal conflict as well. However,
discrimination, which scarcely registered in the rural areas, was the second most significant issue identified by urban
respondents. Anecdotal evidence has suggested that the discrimination may be related to real or perceived differences in
treatment by social institutions, such as those related to access to justice, urban land for housing, government services, or
more. Other issues, such as poverty and financial factors were also noted as having high potential for conflict. Regarding
the question of the main issues with conflict potential between communities, the responses fell, with slight variations,
along similar lines as those above.
If two-thirds of rural and three-quarters of urban respondents do not have sufficient income to meet their basic needs,
and if issues of inequality, governance, unemployment, poverty and discrimination are so heavily weighted with conflict
potential, it stands to reason that the potential for inter- and intra-communal conflicts in South Kyrgyzstan is high and
that the situation is largely untenable in the long-run, barring significant systemic transformation. This is especially the
case when considering the economic
opportunities for youth, whose
economic contribution and inclusion is
vital to development and whose
unemployment is often considered a
harbinger of economic and social
disruption. In fact, 90% of rural
respondents stated that youth in their
communities have practically no
economic opportunities. Urban
responses were only slightly improved,
at 79%. Poverty and unemployment,
however, do not exist in a vacuum and
are often symptoms of larger, more
systemic issues within governance,
such as, for example, poor access to
services, unequal distribution of
resources, or the absence or collapse of
basic infrastructure.
Conflict Potential: General
The household surveys, supplemented by data from the REACH tool, an on-line early warning mapping system, allow the
identification of various factors that can contribute to income insufficiency, unemployment, inequali ty and other
conditions with high conflict or dispute potential.9 Some of these, such as degraded irrigation infrastructure or roads,
especially if Soviet-era construction with little post-independence maintenance, are tangible and have a widespread
impact. Others, such as difficulty in accessing credit or loans for small businesses are less visible, but certainly no less felt.
Crop agriculture, animal husbandry and urban income sources are certainly unique in many aspects, such as their
reliance on different inputs, their geographic locations and level of physical labour required, among others. However,
when prompted to identify the main issues faced regarding their income generating activities, it is clear that, for many
respondents, these livelihood activities share common symptoms of a larger, systemic economic deterioration and
associated market failures. Rural and urban respondents both chose the difficulty in selling products in the market (32%)
and inability to access credit or loans (14%) as the main factors inhibiting their economic development.
Although it is not in the purview of this report to discuss either the macro or the micro economic intricacies of bazaars in
South Kyrgyzstan, it is nonetheless valuable to note general similarities and differences between market difficulties in the
rural and urban areas. Broadly speaking, in the rural areas of South Kyrgyzstan, the difficulty comes from the literal lack
9REACH Online MappingPlatform forKyrgyzstan. IMPACT Initiatives, (2011). Web. 6 August 2012.

6 | P a g e
of market access and the dearth of quality products, such as high quality seeds, fertilizers, and other valuable inputs, as
well as unfamiliarity with best practices and new technology, although innovative agricultural practices certainly exist.
What markets that do exist are typically small, under-stocked and located far from one another, increasing transport
costs for merchants and buyers alike. Individuals seeking to enter the urban markets however, especially with the
expansive Osh and Kara-Suu bazaars in mind, face an entirely different set of issues. In urban areas with high
unemployment, any person can become a trader and often sees the bazaar as an easy point of entry into the income
generating sector. However, these urban bazaars have long histories replete with little regulation or institutionalisation
and new stallholders may face highly protected market-control and power dynamics that impose significant barriers to
entry with typically low returns for entrepreneurs. Additionally, in these and other smaller urban bazaars, it may also be
a question of simple economics and is likely a blend of the inability to sell on the vendor’s part and the inability to
purchase on the buyer’s. The reasons for this are many and varied: poor quality goods, over-production of certain items
which drives down the price, shortages in others due to under-production or border closures and the inability of
residents to cover their basic needs, to name a few.
Additionally, the inability to access cost effective loans or credit hinders individual business expansion, as well as some
day-to-day activities and, by extension, limits overall economic growth potential. As shown earlier, a substantial majority
of respondents (67% rural and 76% urban) are unable to meet even their basic needs, likely not leaving much income
available for economic pursuits. Subsistence income generating activities have a way of snaring individuals in a cycle that
is often difficult, though certainly not impossible, to escape from without external assistance. Yet, difficulty accessing
credit or loans should not be confused with its non-availability, as micro-finance institutions, banks and black markets
exist as avenues of financial lending. Often, however, due to frequently prohibitive interest rates, even those safely away
from poverty would struggle with interest and capital payments, making them especially risky for those with little
collateral and much to lose.10
Conflict Potential: Crop Agriculture
In order to go deeper into agricultural-specific issues, a shift in discussion from intangibles to hard infrastructure is
required. Specifically regarding irrigation infrastructure, the system throughout South Kyrgyzstan is complex, vital and
extensive. Indeed, the prevalence of irrigation-reliant income generating activities, such as crop agriculture and animal
husbandry, are testament to the impact that the irrigation system has on the economic livelihoods of a majority of the
rural population. Yet, it is also collapsing and, as a deteriorating resource supporting a growing population, conflict over
its access and use is increasingly likely. As a result of this heavy economic reliance, the degrading infrastructure and
overall high conflict potential, crop agriculture can be considered one of the most volatile economic sectors, especially
should the current downward trend continue. In fact, an associated qualitative socio-economic research project
conducted by ACTED in 2011 found that in 127 communities, comprised of 381 focus groups held throughout South
Kyrgyzstan, 79% of the communities noted that the trend in the quality, access and availability of the irrigation water
system was downward, as compared to only 5% who perceived an improvement in the system.11
Considering the fact that rural respondents whose primary income is crop agriculture were more likely to report an
average household income below 5,000 KGS/month (78% versus the overall rural proportion of 67%), it is clear that
these individuals are particularly vulnerable given their dependency on an unreliable irrigation system.
It is important to recognize, however, that regarding irrigation water, it is not a question of availability as much as it is a
question of distribution and access, both in terms of geographical location and sharing arrangements. Respondents were
requested to identify the main problems that people face within their communities regarding access to community
resources such as water, land or pasture. A relative majority of rural crop agriculturalists who noted a specific issue
claimed that poor access and infrastructure was the most common problem, followed by governance issues such as
unequal distribution, poorly defined property rights and the lack of sharing arrangements. Significantly, many of these
issues, such as inequality and unfairness, carry high conflict potential, as identified previously. Therefore, it is not simply
a question of non-availability, but also of the conflict potential that is engendered by unequal distribution and poor
access to the resources that do exist.
10World Bank. Lending interest rate (%). Web. 18 November 2012.

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21%
10%
12%
49%
6% 2%
Chart 2: Issues with Resource Access from the Perspective of Rural
Crop Agriculture Dependent Households
Unequal distribution of
resources
No arrangement for sharing
resource
Property rights for land are
not well defined
Poor access and infrastructure
to use resources
Not consulted in terms of
resource distribution
Other
As a result of poor irrigation water
distribution and other factors,
residents throughout South
Kyrgyzstan have a pessimistic
view of the state of the irrigation
system, and the perception of
declination in the quality and size
of irrigated, and even non-
irrigated, farmland is widely
held.12 Consequently, the potential
for conflicts over irrigation water
access and use is likely to increase
as the distribution network
continues to fail. In response,
Water Users Associations (WUAs),
from the mid-nineties, began
being created throughout South
Kyrgyzstan. Whereas in the Soviet
Union, where large collectives
were responsible for water distribution and irrigation canal maintenance, independence saw the fragmentation of these
into smaller landholdings, along with the unwelcome disbursement of distribution and maintenance responsibilities.
Without a comprehensive plan, and lacking much of the financial resources necessary, maintenance has often been
haphazard and water use uncontrolled (or controlled in an unfair or opaque manner). WUAs, which vary in s kill, capacity
and budget, are nonetheless tasked with canal maintenance and ensuring transparent distribution of water, as well as
serving as a mechanism for dispute resolution. 13 WUAs are also responsible for the collection of water use fees, a
sensitive challenge given frequent water scarcities, as well as the common belief that access to irrigation water is less of a
service to be bought and more of a right to be claimed. Irrigation water is a valuable resource that much of the population
relies on for their livelihood and its unequal distribution is often a point of contention. Therefore, the establishment of
adequate governance mechanisms, despite some current weaknesses, to set up, regulate and maintain these shared
infrastructural assets, is crucial for increasing the economic potential of the region, while at the same time reducing
conflict potential. It is important to note that irrigation water governance does not end at the canal’s edge and
maintenance of infrastructure is only one piece of a much larger governance mechanism. Equitable distribution by a
legitimate and communally accepted management system is equally as important as the concrete itself.
Conflict Potential: Animal Husbandry
Although the information provided regarding community resource access is applicable to pasture lands as much as it is to
irrigation water, those who engage in animal husbandry face a completely different set of issues. Pasture land is
widespread throughout South Kyrgyzstan, with many communities driving their animals into the ‘jailoos,’ or summer
pastures, high in the mountains, later descending into warmer climates with the onset of winter. Following the
dissolution of the Soviet Union, herd sizes collapsed due to the division of state-owned farms into smaller entities,
although they are now slowly increasing. This respite allowed much of the pasture land to rest after decades of
questionable Soviet pasture management practices, which sought to maximize animal and crop production at the
expense of the long-term quality and carrying capacity of the land. Centralized planning, in which Moscow set production
quotas and frequently promoted unsuitable resource management strategies, directly contributed to significant
environmental degradation and communal tensions.14
The subsequent decentralization of pasture and land management responsibilities, however, to a community or
individual whose prior animal husbandry experience was solely under state direction, did not bode well for sustainable
practices and pastures in South Kyrgyzstan are again experiencing high levels of degradation and overuse as herd sizes
1294% of ACTED focus groups noted anegativetrend or no change in thequality or accessibility of irrigated land in their communities; 77% of ACTED
focus groups had asimilar perception of non-irrigated land
13Sehring, Jenniver. "Water User Associations (WUAs) in Kyrgyzstan: A CaseStudy on Institutional Reform in Local Irrigation Management."Discussion
Paper. Zentrum für internationaleEntwicklungs und Umweltforschung der JustusLiebigUniversität Gießen. 7. (2005). Web. 3 August 2012.
14 Lim, Michelle. "Laws, Institutions and TransboundaryPastureManagement in theHigh Pamir and Pamir-Alai Mountain Ecosystem of Central
Asia." Law, Environment and DevelopmentJournal. 8/1. 47. (2012). Web. 3 August 2012.

8 | P a g e
grow. In fact, from the previously mentioned data collection involving 127 communities throughout South Kyrgyzstan,
only 3% of the communities surveyed felt that their pastures, either summer or winter, had improved in the past ten
years.15 In the household survey, rural respondents whose primary income is derived from animal husbandry also voiced
many of the same concerns regarding access to resources as their crop agriculture counterparts did. Poor access and
infrastructure was the most commonly mentioned issue, followed by unequal distribution of resources and the lack of
sharing arrangements. Additionally, unclear borders and the inability of authorities to adequately govern pasture use has
resulted in increased conflict potential over pasture access and has inhibited further development.16
As a result, Pasture Committees, recently created bodies of experienced pastoralists, have the mandate to govern pasture
access and use throughout their ayil okmotu (local municipality). These Pasture Committees oversee the creation of
pasture management plans, which outline pasture use to ensure sustainable management practices. These committees
are also the recipients of pasture use fees, which, in turn are (or should be) ploughed back into the communities to
support improvements in pasture infrastructure, such as bridges and roads.17 Pasture Committees are also designed as a
dispute mechanism whereby communities and individuals can seek redress for perceived wrongs, such as unequal
pasture distribution, illegal use and/or unclear pasture demarcations. A strong and respected Pasture Committee,
especially one with an equitable and transparently designed pasture management plan, removes many, though not all, of
the conditions necessary for conflict over pas ture use. Conversely, a weak committee without a comprehensive plan
helps engender the environment where conflicts thrive and disputes go unresolved, damaging both the economic
opportunities of individuals and the physical capabilities of pastures.
Conflict Potential: Urban
Although urban respondents are certainly affected by irrigation water access or pasture over-use and degradation, the
household survey found that they also face a unique set of challenges in regards to the underlying factors and causes of
their inhibited economic development.
As Chart 3 shows, urban respondents
have a diverse array of economic
opportunities available to them. As a
result, there is not a homogenous or
“typical” urban income source to the
extent that agriculture or animal
husbandry is in the rural areas. Each
of these primary income sources are
quite distinct, rendering urban-wide
assertions fallible and impossibly
broad. In fact, even many of the
categories of primary income, such as
“Public Sector,” are simply extended
spectrums that can include a highly
varied set of different trades or
occupations such as, government officials, teachers, nurses, or police officers. The household survey was not deep enough
to capture the intricacies of urban livelihoods, and the urban sample size, as previously mentioned, is inadequate to
provide generalizable or representative findings. Accordingly, bold theories of causality are avoided and this report, in an
effort to provide a level of clarity about these urban economic issues will, however briefly, review the general economic
and governance factors that underpin the primary income sources for the majority of the urban respondents.
16Saferworld. "Lookingback to look forward." 5-6. (2011). Web. 18 November 2012.
17ur-Rahim, Inam, and Daniel Maselli. "Participatory PastureManagement Project." BaselineStudy. 5-6. (2008). Web. 3 August 2012.
PrivateSector
38%
Public Sector
19%
Remittances
and Social
Benefits
31%
Other
12%
Chart 3: Aggregated Primary Sources of Income Reported by
Urban Areas

9 | P a g e
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Household Income
below 5000
KGS/month
Income Affected by
Conflict
ProportionofTotalRespondents
Chart 4: Urban Poverty and Conflict-Affected Income
Private Sector
Remittances and Social
Benefits
Government Sector
Urban Average
Private Sector Employment
Firstly, this report will consider
private sector employment,
namely those respondents
involved in small business, trade,
labour and salaried employment,
which comprise 38% of the urban
respondents. Considering the
physical destruction of businesses
in June 2010 and the resulting
economic tremors and scarcity of
investment, it is understandable
that private sector individuals
would be hardest hit
economically. In fact, 75% of these
respondents noted that their
primary income had been
negatively affected by recent conflicts. This proportion was considerably higher than the other sectors of remittances and
social benefits and the public sector, which were 56% and 54% respectively. Of these three primary income sectors,
private sector workers also had the highest proportion of respondents with a household income of less than 5,000 KGS a
month, though, interestingly, the lowest proportion of respondents with income insufficient to cover their basic needs.
The differences in the income insufficiency are minor and due to the small sample size of the urban respondents, it is
impossible to draw any specific conclusions. What the numbers do appear to show, however, is that despite their relative
economic position, these individuals have a different perception of basic needs than others who occupy slightly higher
income brackets and that income and income insufficiency are not necessarily inversely related. Yet, it is clear that
private sector individuals are extremely vulnerable considering the highly affected nature of their already insufficient
household income.
Remittances and Social Benefits
The second income sector, which includes 31% of urban respondents, is comprised of households whose primary income
is derived from remittances, government allowances and support from non-governmental organizations. Although these
are distinct categories in their own right, they are aggregated here as a source of income reliant on external entities or
individuals. As a group, they are better off than the private sector, by the measure of monthly household income above
5,000 KGS, with only 42% of respondents below that amount. Furthermore, as discussed previously, their primary
income has also been less affected by conflicts. Given the highly remittance-dependent status of Kyrgyzstan, considering
that by some estimates upwards of 30% of the active labour force are working abroad, it is interesting that the level of
self-reporting of remittance dependence at a household level is quite low amongst respondents, though given the small
urban sample size, it is not possible to make reliable inferences.18
Public Sector Employment
Lastly, public sector employment, which includes doctors, teachers, government administrators and others, represents
19% of urban respondents. As a group, the public sector was noticeably better positioned economically than the other
primary income sectors, often significantly so. Not only did they have the lowest proportion of respondents with a
monthly household income below 5,000 KGS (27%), they were also the least likely to have their income be conflict
affected. They did, however, share a common proportion of responses in regards to the insufficiency of their income to
meet their basic needs, which again may reflect different perceptions of ‘basic needs,’ although again, due to the small
sample size, caution should be taken with generalizations. This income sector was also the only one of the three that was
inclined to agree with the statement that people within their community had the same economic opportunities, whereas
18Moldobaeva, Bermet. "External and Internal Migration Processesin Kyrgyzstan: What AreTheLast Year Trends?" American University of Central Asia.
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. 7 February2007. Lecture.

10 | P a g e
the private sector and remittances groups tend towards disagreement with that statement, implying perceptions of
income inequity.
As the next section will show, it is the public sector which nearly all individuals, regardless of income source, rely on for
the provision of social services and, in many cases, basic needs. It has been made clear that individuals throughout South
Kyrgyzstan, both rural and urban, are often unable to attain basic services or be free from the damaging effects of conflict.
In many cases, the blame for this is laid at the feet of government, an identifiable political structure. Debilitating
shortages in public financing and non-transparent budgeting processes are the focus of significant attention in public
reform initiatives. Perhaps more fairly, as the following section will show, it is often a question of governance, used here
to describe the system of management, distribution and oversight of economic and social resources and the ability and
capacity of the individuals within that system to do so. Although the structure and the system undoubtedly share many
individuals and responsibilities, governance need not be performed only by government.

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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Education Health
Services
Justice Water and
Sanitation
Chart 5: The Proportion of Rural and Urban Respondents with Little
or No Access to Social Services
Rural
Urban
Perceptions ofSocial Influences on Peace and Stability
Just as economics can bind individuals to, or exclude them from, a greater market, so to can social structures and issues
bind individuals to, or exclude them from, a larger community. Levels of trust, access to social services, perceptions of
differences (and similarities), history of disputes and their method of resolution all play important roles in shaping the
collectivity and cohesion of any particular community, be it a village, an ethnic group, a nationality or a rel igion. This
section of the report will divide these issues into two broad categories: 1) social services provided (or not) by an
identifiable party and 2) thoughts, beliefs, biases and perceptions existent within respondents in order to better
understand the ‘social environment’ that the respondents operate within.
Access to Social Services
Social services, from the
intangibles of education, health
and justice to the consumables of
water and sanitation, are valuable
inputs into our daily lives.
However, on a day-to-day basis,
individuals are typically on the
receiving end of these services and
change is only affected with great
difficulty. The providers of many of
the intangible services, such as
teachers, lawyers and doctors,
require years of training and
improvements in quality are often
accompanied by unprecedented
shifts in attitude and outlook.
Consumables are no less daunting,
necessitating the construction and maintenance of complex infrastructure, and their decline is frequently much swifter
than their ascent. Additionally, the residency system of propiska, which still remains a barrier for social inclusion and
freedom of movement, also serves to limit access to social services such as education and health, especially for internal
migrants who are away from their official residency or who have no formal residency registration at all. Furthermore,
considering that only 15% of respondents stated that they understood how the government budget was spent,
compounds the likelihood of misallocation of funds, low levels of community participation in public affairs, non-
transparency of budgeting, corruption and other issues that prevent the provision of social services. As a result, as can be
seen in Chart 5 above, not all of these services are provided equitably.
Education
Given even an introductory knowledge of the state of these services in South Kyrgyzstan, these results would appear
unsurprising, necessitating the importance of discovering the underlying causes of these shortcomings in social services
provision. Looking first at education and healthcare, it quickly becomes apparent that the provision of poor quality
services in these sectors bear a number of resemblances. For example, the quality of education in Kyrgyzstan has
deteriorated rapidly following independence, both in terms of the teaching materials available and of the skill level and
size of the teaching workforce. Due to funding constraints, many schools lack textbooks, modern teaching equipment or
current, relevant curriculums.19 Additionally, despite recent salary increases, teachers are not well compensated and
there is a marked non-interest of qualified graduates to enter the education field. In fact, three out of four teachers in
Kyrgyzstan are older than 45 years old and, having studied in the Soviet education system, are often replaced by poorly
trained and inexperienced teachers.20
19International Crisis Group. "Central Asia: Decay and Decline." Asia Report No. 201. 7. (2011). Web. 20 August 2012.
20Mogilevsky, Roman. "Public Expenditures on Education and Health in theKyrgyz Republicbeforeand duringtheGlobal Financial Crisis." CASE
NetworkReports. 34. (2011). Web. 1 August 2012.

12 | P a g e
As Chart 5 indicates, relatively high levels of access to education services were reported by respondents, especially in
relation to the other services identified. Nearly 20% of respondents, however, reported low or no access and, given that
unemployment was identified by respondents has possessing high conflict potential, reflection on the trend in education
services and the causal relationship between education and employment is warranted.
Poor education cannot be attributed to the structural failure of the educational system alone, and other issues, such as
poverty and migration, play a significant role. For example, large numbers of students drop out of school in order to join
the workforce and provide contributions to their household income, which, while providing temporary economic relief,
nonetheless hinders longer-term development by inhibiting later professional advancement. Additionally, as rural
families continue to migrate into urban areas, the increasing population places financial strains on the capacities of
already over-burdened schools. As a result, in many cases, students of these families are turned away due to the lack of
proper propiska documents.21 As such, in order to make up for budgetary shortfalls, schools are often reliant on financial
contributions from parents, which distorts the equality of education throughout South Kyrgyzstan, and significant
differences in quality, conditions and outcomes have appeared. 22 This divide between a small number of properly funded
educational institutions and the majority of others who lack even rudimentary materials reinforces inequality and
contributes to the belief that not everyone possesses the same economic opportunities, given the stark differences in
educational quality. The rich and well-connected continue to access improved education, while the poor are often
exposed only to declining educational standards and out of date textbooks.
Though perhaps not immediately apparent, the education system is laying the foundation for future conflicts through
South Kyrgyzstan. The differences in educational standards widen the already expansive divide b etween poor and rich,
contributing to continuing unfairness and inequality. Furthermore, poor education contributes to higher levels of
unemployment, as it does not provide students with the skills or knowledge necessary to develop professionally. As
identified previously, it is these issues of inequality and unemployment which carry high conflict potential.
Health Services
Approximately 1 in 4 respondents reported low or no access to health services, and this access issue was slightly more
pronounced in rural areas. Healthcare, like education, has seen a flight of qualified medical professionals and general
collapse of much of the basic infrastructure. The numbers are stark indeed. Between 1990 and 2009, the number of
doctors per 1,000 people fell from 3.5 to 2.4, while the number of nurses per 1,000 people collapsed from 10.3 to 5.4.23
Additionally, many of these healthcare professionals were trained in the Soviet Union and too few doctors and nurses,
often poorly trained, are entering the medical system each year to reach replacement rates. It is likely that the impact of
this continual downward slide will be felt more strongly in the rural areas, as irreplaceable medical professionals
continue their migration to larger cities or depart the workforce. 24 Corruption within the medical system is also reported
to be endemic, with many patients required to make unofficial payments for their medical care, which is especially
difficult for those whose income is already insufficient for their other needs. As in education, propiska also plays a part in
limiting access to medical care, as many internal migrants outside of their official residencies face higher costs for
medical services.25
Much like education, the difference in healthcare quality is also a manifestation of the inequality inherent in South
Kyrgyzstan. Those with the means to do so can access quality healthcare, likely through private clinics in Kyrgyzstan or
abroad. Conversely, others must gamble on the current healthcare structure, frequently unsuccessfully, and it is the idea
of unequal distribution of goods and services and the perceived inability to access basic health services which may
increase conflict potential over healthcare.
Justice
Despite the shortcomings in their provision however, education and healthcare are considerably more accessible to
respondents than justice. In fact, individuals with little or no access to justice who stated a specific reason noted that the
21International Crisis Group 8.
22Mertaugh, Michael. "Education in Central Asia, With Particular Referenceto theKyrgyz Republic."Challenge of Education in Central Asia. 6-7. (2004).
Web. 4 August 2012.
23Mogilevsky 49.
24International Crisis Group 2-3.
25Mogilevsky 58.

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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Resolved
satisfactorily for
both sides
Resolved
satisfactorily for
one side, and the
other side usually
tolerates the
outcome
Not resolved
satisfactorily for
either side, but
they tolerate the
outcome
Unresolved, and
the dispute
continues or gets
worse
Don't know or N/A
Chart 6: Reported Resolution Outcomes of Most Recent Disputes by Geographical Area
Batken
Jalalabad
Osh
Urban
defining factors preventing access were the poor quality of services (29%), financial barriers (21%) and the fact that the
services are not available (11%). Additionally, of these respondents, 70% noted that recent disputes in their communities
had not been satisfactorily resolved, which was much higher, proportionally, than those respondents who perceived the
ability to adequately access justice.26 In fact, only 30% of all respondents stated that “the most recent dispute” in their
community had been adequately resolved to where both parties were satisfied without the outcome.27,28 Although there
are many reasons for such poor access to justice, what is clear is that without such access, wrongs are difficult to right,
conflicts are left unresolved and reliance on formal law-enforcement and justice processes may be insufficient for
communities seeking dispute resolution and conflict mitigation.
Firstly, in terms of poor quality, the perversion of justice can come in many forms; corrupt judges and law enforcement
bodies, poorly written or unenforced laws, favouritism or weak independent oversight. In short, it is often a question of
governance and the presence of these and other distorting factors can be assumed given the high levels of non-
accessibility. Even assuming an equitable provision of justice, regardless of social or economic status of the recipients, the
poor quality of the service will ensure that the application of justice is non-standardized in terms of fairness or legality
and more likely to engender problems than it is to solve them.
The individuals on the supply-side of justice are not the only ones to blame however. The general public’s typically low
awareness of laws, coupled with a general disregard for the rule of law certainly negatively affects the juridical
environment. Whether this is a cause or a consequence of the style of justice mentioned above, however, is difficult to
state with any accuracy.
Secondly, given the financial situation of many of the respondents, it is clear that household finances play a strong role in
the inability to access social services. Those unable to cover the basic needs of food, shelter and clothing will certainly be
unable to access transparent and equitable justice, given the expenses, frequently informal.
In terms of non-accessibility, there are certainly many responses, of varying degrees of social acceptability, open to
individuals wishing to advance their claim. Individuals themselves can be non-responsive to the issue, and through tacit
acceptability, allow the perceived wrong to go un-redressed. In the longer-term however, this is not sustainable and only
delays, and often augments, the dispute upon its manifestation. People can take justice into their own hands, which,
perhaps fulfilling in the short-term, nonetheless promotes a culture of vigilante-ism and vendettas, which are not
2638% of respondents who stated they had medium or high access to justice noted that recent disputes within their communities had not been
satisfactorily resolved.
2743% of respondents noted that themostrecent disputein their communityhad not been satisfactorilyresolved for both parties.
28The robustness of the data is not strong enough to demonstrate a causal relationship between these indicators, however the concurrency of these
trends is of interest to note.

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Interestingly, Batken also showed a heavy
reliance on family members for dispute
resolution. In fact, 82% of all respondents
who identified family members as the usual
arbiter of disputes were from Batken.
Initiative Groups in Osh oblast were also
significantly higher than any of the other
locations.
conducive for cooperative dispute resolution. Trained community mediators are available throughout South Kyrgyzstan,
although the culture of external mediation is relatively new in the region and is only slowly gaining prominence as a
mechanism of dispute resolution. As a result, without access to a functioning and impartial court system, community
members seeking redress often turn towards decentralized, localized and more informal structures within their
communities.
Foremost in the rural communities were elders, of which 51% of rural respondents noted as the institution or individual
who typically resolves community disputes. This, of course, manifests itself along a large spectrum of access, from trusted
individuals to more formalized Aksakal Courts, comprising numerous
elders. Formalized in 1995, Aksakal Courts are mandated to resolve
local disputes based on customary law and local tradition, while at the
same time remaining consistent with national law. Their services are
provided free of charge and are seen as a mechanism for providing
access to legal remedies in communities without state legal
institutions. However, as members of the courts are not required to
have official legal training, research questions the legal soundness and
constitutionality of many of their rulings and outlines fears regarding
the breach of human rights, especially on behalf of women.29 The
proportion of urban respondents who relied on aksakals for their dispute resolution was notably lower, at only 23%,
with a heavier reliance on formal state structures. Elders are listened to because they are respected members of the
community and, as will be shown, internal migration patterns have strained cohesion, especially in urban centres and
elders have been displaced as purveyors of justice. Interestingly, even urban respondents who selected elders believed
that they had a lower dispute resolution success rate than those elders who operated in rural areas. 88% of rural
respondents noted that elders were successful always or most of the time in resolving disputes, while only 57% of urban
respondents believed they were as frequently as successful.
Water and Sanitation
Urban-rural differences are not limited to cases of justice. Regarding access to water and sanitation services, the divide
between these two sets of respondents is stark, with urban respondents far more likely to perceive adequate or good
levels of access. Water and sanitation infrastructure is difficult to build, expensive to maintain and frequently requires
expansion into new areas. In many communities, drinking water systems are a vestige of the Soviet Union and, lacking
the funding or capacity to properly maintain them, many of these systems are slowly, but quite explicitly, collapsing.
Additional research from 127 rural communities, where 60% of communities surveyed noted a decline in drinking water
access and availability, confirms this negative, downward trend. In addition, this same research identifies drinking water
access as a significant conflict potential source throughout South Kyrgyzstan.30
In many cases, this collapse drives people to access irrigation canals or other surface water for their drinking needs, often
at the expense of their health. This increases inter-communal conflict potential due to common accusations of upstream
communities polluting the water system with trash and other waste. Increases in sicknesses can also strain the resources
of local medical points, if present, and places additional financial burdens on individuals who, as has been shown, are
typically unable to bear them.31 Additionally, as more drinking water is taken from the canals, less water is available for
downstream communities for irrigation (or drinking) purposes, engendering conflicts between communities who are
perceived to be disregarding the resource needs of one another.
Governance of the water systems, following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, was dispersed, sometimes to an
identifiable entity and sometimes not. Unclear responsibilities, coupled with the financial deficit, ensured that the
drinking water system would continue to fail unless local organizations with a stake in the outcome participated i n their
maintenance. As a result, local level organizations such as Community Drinking Water User Unions (CDWUUs) have
begun appearing throughout South Kyrgyzstan as water management is decentralized. These unions, which possess their
own management structure, supervise the maintenance and management of the community water supply systems.32
29Ranjbar, Azita. EurasiaFoundation. The DecliningUse of Aksakal Courts in Kyrgyzstan. 11. (2012). Web. 6 August 2012.
31Igoe, Michael. "Kyrgyzstan: Bathingin theNeighbors’DrinkingWater." Eurasianet 2 July 2012. Web. 5 August 2012.
32Wardle, Chris. Building the Capacity of Village Communities toManage the Provision of Clean Drinking Water: Lessons from Kyrgyzstan. 3. (2010). Web.
18 November 2012.

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
People in this and neighbouring
communities have similar living standards
People in this community have the same
economic opportunities
Chart 7: Perceptions of Economic Equality in Rural and Urban Areas
Urban Rural
Although many of these unions are new and questions regarding their sustainability remain, they are clearly in response
to an unfulfilled need, and those communities that rely on local government for rehabilitation and maintenance can be
worse off.33 Due to chronic shortages of resources, however, both community unions and local government are typically
underfunded relative to needs and, at best, appear to be able to do little to stem the tide of infrastructural collapse.
The pervasiveness of governance structures such as WUAs, Aksakal Courts and Drinking Water Users Unions points to a
larger interest in community participation in governance of their resources and social services, the majority of which are,
or should be, provided by the government. As previously shown, however, unequal distribution, or even the perception of
it, invites high conflict potential and, as a result, community participation in governance issues is important to ensuring
some level of equality and transparency.
As the next section will show, however, issues of governance, despite their importance, cannot be isolated and, in fact, co-
exist with social issues, such as perceptions of inequality, trust and society. These individual convictions influence that
person’s interaction with the environment around them, including the way choices are made and beliefs are shaped.
These social beliefs are often neither rigid nor abstract, creating values, perceptions and beliefs with the capability to
both perceive conflict with, or identify commonality between, individuals with whom we relate.
Perceptions and Social Identifiers
Social identifiers are not mutually exclusive and individuals are free to don whichever particular hat is relevant to them
given the situation. Today I am Kyrgyz, yesterday I was from Mady and tomorrow perhaps I will be Muslim. Such
identifiers, however, can be as equally divisive as they are inclusive and this section of the report will look at perceptions
of similarities and differences, levels of trust, feelings of security and other social aspects which are harboured on a more
individual, and less systemic, level. As the information will show, rural and urban respondents differ substantially in
these perceptions.
Perceptions of Inequality
Inequality, unfairness and unemployment, as has been shown, carry high conflict potential. These issues are tied to
numerous economic and socio-governance factors and it is interesting to note the differences in perceptions between
rural and urban respondents as they relate to economic opportunities and standards of living. Rural respondents were
considerably more optimistic than their urban counterparts when asked about the equality of economic opportunities in
their communities (50% of rural respondents compared to 31% of urban respondents). Perhaps this is due to the wider
spectrum of economic opportunities present in urban areas, whereas the majority of rural respondents primarily rely on
one of two income generation activities. Not all employment opportunities are equal in terms of work load, payment,
respect or other defining factors and where there are differences there is often economic stratification and, as a result,
unequal opportunities for income generation or economic advancement.
While the previous analysis
sought to understand
within communities, this
section of the report also
looks into respondents’
perceptions of the
and, by extension, the living
standards of communities
neighbouring their own. As
Chart 7 shows, urban
respondents were much
less likely than rural
33Regallet, Gabriel. United Nations Development Program. CommunalServices in Kyrgyzstan: APoverty and Social Impact Assessment. 19. (2011). Web. 3
August 2012.

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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
In this community most
people have the same
religious and cultural belief
In neighbouring
communities most people
have the same religious and
cultural beliefs
ProportionofTotalRespondentswhoAgreeor
StronglyAgree
Chart 8: Perceptions of Religious and Cultural Differences
Rural
Urban
respondents to perceive similarities between their standard of living and that of their neighbouring communities. As
identified in the prior sections, this inequality can foreshadow the conflicts based on an individual’s desire to seek the
reallocation of goods and services, possibly through the use of violence.
Additionally, perceptions of differences are not only be confined to economic opportunities or standards of living, but
also encompasses religious and cultural beliefs. Take, for example, the question that asks whether respondents agreed or
not with the statement that “in this community, most people have the same religious and cultural beliefs.” In the rural
communities, 77% of the respondents agreed or strongly agreed with this statement, as compared to only 41% of urban
respondents. In fact, urban respondents were more likely to disagree than agree. Considering that 96% of urban
respondents were either ethnically Kyrgyz or Uzbek, the assumption is that the difference here is not referring to
religion, as the vast majority of these populations are Sunni Muslims. The distinction, therefore, appears to be regarding
perceptions of cultural differences.
When the question was expanded
to include perceptions of
neighbouring communities, the
response rates appeared similar.
From these findings, it is clear that
rural communities typically
consider themselves as
homogenous in their makeup and,
in general, are representative, in
their cultural and ethnic nature, of
the areas in which they are
located. Urban respondents,
conversely, appear to perceive a
significantly higher level of
multiculturalism in, and around,
their communities.
Given the recent June 2010
conflict, it would be easy to draw
out conflict potential in the
multiculturalism of the urban
communities. However, the belief that social differences alone are sufficient for provoking conflict is a simplistic view
that ignores primary causal factors, such as those governance, socio-economic, and financial issues mentioned above.
Trust
The perception of trust among individuals throughout South Kyrgyzstan is also an important thread in the fabric which
binds various individuals or communities together. As noted throughout this report, the urban -rural divide is often stark
and their differences in the levels of trust are no different. While many of the rural communities are heavily tilted
towards a homogenous population, the urban communities of Osh and Jalalabad are considerably more diverse in their
make-up. Generally, rural communities are smaller and consist of large informal extended networks of families, friends
and acquaintances. People certainly migrate outward from the rural areas, but often leave behind vestiges of these
establishments with whom they are familiar with and can rely on. Conversely, urban areas, frequently the recipients of
migratory individuals, lack these long-standing social bonds and shared experiences.34 As a result of these, and other
factors, respondents from rural communities were more than twice as likely as their urban counterparts to state a high
level of trust between ethnicities in their communities. Interestingly, the youngest age bracket (18-29) of respondents
were the most likely to note this trust (53%). The increasing age of respondents appears inversely related to their
perception of inter-ethnic trust as only 40% of those aged 65 and over felt that different ethnicities within their
communities trusted one another.
34When prompted to respond to the statement that “people have lived together in this community for a long time,” only 55% of urban respondents
agreed or strongly agreed, as compared to 83%of rural respondents.

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0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
There is a high level of trust between those within
this community
There is a high level of trust between members of
this region (or area)
There is a high level of trust between members
from different ethnicities
Proportion ofrespondents whoagreeor stronglyagreewith the statement
FactorsofTrust
Chart 9: Trust Tendencies (% agree) in Rural and Urban Areas
Urban
Rural
Rural respondents noted a considerably
higher level of participation in
government processes and decision
making than their urban counterparts. In
fact, 67% of rural respondents, and only
34% of urban respondents, believed that
people within their communities were
involved in government processes.
Without delving too deeply into the psychology of relationships, which is certainly not in the purview of this report, it is
interesting to note what appear to be contradictory beliefs, given recent findings that show high levels of participation,
by youths from rural mono-ethnic communities, in the June 2010 violence. What is quite possible, however, is that in
homogenous communities with little minority representation, these individual inter-ethnic relationships are easier to
cultivate than in more diverse areas, where pockets of society can be insular and difficult to penetrate. As a result,
according to the Contact Theory, these rural inter-ethnic relationships engender higher levels of trust due to familiarity.
Exposure to different beliefs, different ways of life and different people humanizes them in a manner to where they are
no longer the unknown ‘other’ who are to be feared or hated. The multi-cultural urban areas should also be experiencing
higher levels of trust at first glance, but due to the fact that many neighbourhoods can function autonomously, in the
social sense, and what trust exists intra-communally can often be withheld from its neighbours. Of course, exposure does
not necessarily translate into trust or social cohesion, but it can begin to chip away at the conflict potential of certain
situations, however imperceptibly.
Interestingly, the gap between rural and urban respondents continues to widen as the questions of trust become
narrower. For example, as Chart 9 shows, rural respondents continue to be considerably more trusting than their urban
counterparts, both in regards to intra-regional as well as intra-communal trust.
Trust alone, however, is not an antidote for conflict, as can be seen in rural communities throughout South Kyrgyzstan
where residents, with reported high levels of trust and cooperation, nonetheless have disputes over access to water,
pasturelands or the bazaar. Change of any type, a new water gate or pasture bridge, brings conflict, though it need not
always be negative. Everything hinges on the mechanism of its resolution and people’s trust in its transparency and
impartiality. Without this, when wrongs go un-righted and ‘justice’ goes to the highest bidder, the system collapses.
Increased involvement in the system, be it governance structures or society in general, strengthens peoples belief in it, as
well as their willingness to invest their time and effort into a communal good.
Participation in Government and Society
Rural respondents, on a whole, expressed a significant level of
involvement in trust building activities, on a scale and scope that were
noticeably absent in the urban areas. For instance, rural respondents are
more than twice as likely as urban to note the presence of “a large
number of joint activities within and between the communities” (73% to
31%, respectively). There is also a considerably higher incidence of
inter- and intra-communal volunteerism in the rural areas as well (66%
to 31%).This high level of community involvement may explain the
intensity of trust that rural respondents noted in the previous section.

18 | P a g e
8%
13%
13%
23%
38%
5%
Chart 10: The Role of Youth in Promoting Peace
and Harmony in the Community
Never
Rarely
Sometimes
Most of the time
Always
Don’t know
Not only are respondents involved in trust building initiatives and volunteerism, but a large portion of individuals,
especially in the rural areas, stated a considerable involvement in government processes and decision-making.35
Respondents’ interpretation of “participation in government processes” certainly takes many forms and shapes, including
voting, participation in election campaigns, protesting, involvement in resource governance structures such as pasture
committees and, of course, employment by the government itself. Regardless of the interpretation, however, it is clear
that respondents consider themselves, by a substantial margin in the rural areas, to be active and engaged within their
communities.
Additionally, when looking specifically at women’s involvement in community affairs, over half of all respondents agreed
or strongly agreed that women were active and engaged in their community. Despite this strong and active involvement,
however, women remain a largely untapped source of dispute resolution in their communities. In fact, only 2
respondents out of 1733 stated that women usually resolved disputes in their communities.
Youth is another particularly interesting segment of society to consider when reviewing perceptions of community
participation and representation. Respondents, by a significant margin, agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that
youth were well represented in their communities.36 In fact, youth respondents in the 18-29 year old age bracket were
the most likely to note high levels of youth representation
in their communities. Representation, much like
participation, can, of course, take many forms. What is
clear though is the respondent’s belief that youth have
both a voice as well as the opportunity to shape decision-
making within the community.
Despite the high profile accorded to youth by the
respondents, however, as noted previously, youth
continue to suffer from an acute deficiency of economic
opportunities. Growing populations of unemployed youth
with a declining number of avenues of personal and
professional advancement are often see as heralds of ill
tidings and such youth are often fingered as the
perpetrators, if not the causes, of conflict. For that reason,
data regarding the perceptions of youth involvement in peace and conflict is all the more interesting. Chart 9 clearly
outlines respondents’ belief that, in fact, youth are actually heavily involved in promoting peace and harmony within
their communities. Furthermore, when speaking of youth involvement in conflict, ‘never/rarely’ outweighed ‘most of the
time/always’ by a factor of 18 to 1 in rural areas and over 3 to 1 in urban.
3567% of rural and 34% of urban respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that “people of this community often participate in
government processes and decisions.”
3663% of respondents agreed or strongly agreed with the statement that “youth are well represented in this community,” though rural and urban
responses differed significantly – 66% in therural areas and 38% in theurban.

TASK - Perceptions of Peace and Stability in South of Kyrgyzstan - Final Draft

TASK - Perceptions of Peace and Stability in South of Kyrgyzstan - Final Draft

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