The document provides an analysis of real estate market trends in San Francisco for September/October 2012. It discusses slowing home sales growth and rising prices due to low inventory levels. It also examines mortgage rates, construction spending, and foreclosure statistics. Key points include: - Home sales rose 12.3% in August but were down 14.2% year-over-year due to lack of inventory. Median home prices increased 29.1% year-over-year. - Condo sales rose 35.5% from the previous June. Median condo prices increased 17.3% year-over-year. - Mortgage rates retreated in recent weeks but construction spending declined in July, pausing growth.

1. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER 2012 Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
Inside This Issue
2800 Van Ness Avenue
> LOCAL MARKET TRENDS ..................... 1 San Francisco, CA 94109
> MORTGAGE RATE OUTLOOK ............... 2 (415) 447-2009
rfleischer@amsiemail.com
> HOME STATISTICS .............................. 2
http://www.amsires.com/staff/robb
> FORECLOSURE STATS ........................ 3 DRE #01403882
> CONDO STATISTICS ............................ 3
> MOMENTUM CHARTS .......................... 4
The Real Estate Report
local market trends Trends at a Glance
(Single-family Homes)
Aug 12 Jul 12 Aug 11
SAN FRANCISCO Home Sales: 229 204 267
Median Price: $ 768,000 $ 800,750 $ 595,000
The Road To Recovery Will Be Full of Fits & Starts Av erage Price: 1,001,306 1,214,707 828,774
Sale/List Price Ratio: 104.3% 100.2% 99.0%
Although prices have been rising nicely since the foreclosure abuses arising out of the robo-signing
Day s on Market: 47 47 63
beginning of the year, most of this is due to a larger scandal. However, they reserve the right to sue --
or press charges for criminal behavior -- if they (Lofts/Tow nhomes/TIC)
percentage of high end homes being sold.
uncover improper acts when the loans were Aug 12 Jul 12 Aug 11
The bottom end of the market is being squeezed by Condo Sales: 298 264 220
originated or when they were securitized.
investors out-bidding home-buying families, and
Median Price: $ 730,000 $ 692,500 $ 623,500
the middle of the market is going nowhere because When will the new rules and bank policies be
Av erage Price: 813,011 781,287 693,243
they are still underwater. put into place? Most of them have already
become part of bank policies. Sale/List Price Ratio: 101.1% 101.1% 98.7%
The market will continue in this vein for at least the Day s on Market: 54 59 84
next couple of years, unless we see some drastic When will homeowners find out if they're
principal reductions. eligible for a principal reduction or refinancing? SALES MOMENTUM…
The banks have said they expect to get started for homes plunged 3.9 points to +7.3. For condos,
The recent court case against the big five lenders:
very quickly. The first step will be to identify sales momentum gained 1.4 points to +11.9.
Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Chase, Citigroup
borrowers who qualify for the deal.
and Ally Financial, requiring them to provide PRICING MOMENTUM…
principal reductions, may quick start the market. AUGUST MARKET STATISTICS continued moving upward in August, bouncing 3.5
What should I do if I think I may qualify for a Sales of single-family, re-sale homes gained 12.3% to go into positive territory for the first time since
principal reduction or refinanced mortgage? from July, but were off 14.2% year-over-year. January 2011: +1.5. The number for condos rose
Contact your lender/servicer and ask them to 1.6 points to +2.8. That’s the third month in a row
Sales are being impacted by the lack of inventory.
review your case. There are only 297 homes for sale in the city. condo pricing momentum has been positive.
If I take the money, what rights do I give up? That’s only four and a half months of supply! WE CALCULATE…
Borrowers do not give up any right to sue. The beneficiary of low inventory has been prices. momentum by using a 12-month moving average
The median price for homes rose 29.1% year-over- to eliminate seasonality. By comparing this year’s
As part of this deal, state attorneys general gave 12-month moving average to last year’s, we get a
up the right to sue the mortgage servicers for year. This kept the sales price to list price ratio over
100% for the sixth month in a row. percentage showing market momentum.
San Francisco Homes: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change CONDO STATISTICS…
The median price for condos gained
30.0% 17.3% year-over-year. Sales were up
20.0%
35.5% from last June.
10.0% This is an extraordinarily tough market
for buyers. It’s important to be calm
0.0% and realistic. If you don’t know what to
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
do or where to begin, give me a call
and let’s discuss your situation and
-20.0% your options.
-30.0%
-40.0%
© 2012 rereport.com
Robb Fleischer | rfleischer@amsiemail.com | (415) 447-2009

2. The Real Estate Report
Mortgage Rate Outlook
30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates Sep 7, 2012 -- Although the collective tenor of the eco- paused. The overall effect was to cause a 0.9% de-
nomic data released this week was fair, it was cline in outlays for construction projects, but residen-
07-12 capped by a disappointing employment report for tial (-1.6%), commercial (-0.9%) and public (-0.4%)
04-12 August. At a time of global economic troubles beyond all eased during the month. Although softer com-
01-12 its direct influence, and with the U.S. economy hold- pared to June, all the components were measurably
10-11
07-11 ing onto modest growth, how compelled is the Feder- higher compared to a year ago, and the new home
04-11 al Reserve to make a substantial move? market has record-thin inventory levels, so some
01-11 pickup after this pause seems likely.
10-10 Mortgage rates retreated again this week, taking
07-10 back another bit of the mild August rise. As noted here last week, low interest rates have no
04-10
01-10
doubt helped the economy find some footing, but
HSH.com's broad-market mortgage tracker -- our
10-09 there is a question of how much additional benefit
weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI) --
07-09 can be had by the Fed lowering record lows for rates.
04-09 found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-
Low rates on their own are useful, but not a cure-all,
01-09 rate mortgages declined by another three basis
10-08 and valuable only to those looking to borrow money.
points (0.03%) to 3.86%. The FRMI's 15-year com-
07-08 A business won't borrow to expand its operations and
04-08 panion also decreased by three basis points, sliding
hire more people in a highly uncertain climate such
01-08 to 3.14% and matching its record low. Important to
10-07 as this; however, they will try to refinance existing
homebuyers and low-equity-stake refinancers, FHA-
07-07 debt and pocket the improvement in cash flow.
04-07
backed 30-year mortgages eased back down to
01-07 3.46%, while the overall average rate for 5/1 Hybrid We also have already had a lot of mortgage refinanc-
10-06 ARMs finished the weekly survey at 2.74%, down ing, with at least some unsated demand yet to go, but
07-06 three hundredths of a percentage point from last as with the above, there are limits. There are also
04-06
01-06 week, establishing a new record low. plenty of consumer rates seemingly immune to the
3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% Fed's machinations, including credit cards and more,
There was a little fall off in construction spending in
so the full benefit of lower interest rates becomes
July. After being driven upward solely by residential
muted for many.
spending over the past few months, homebuilding
San Francisco Homes: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
The chart above shows the Na- (3-month moving average — $000's)
tional monthly average for 30-
year fixed rate mortgages as $1,500 300
compiled by HSH.com. The av- $1,300 250
erage includes mortgages of all
sizes, including conforming, $1,100 200
"expanded conforming," and $900 150
jumbo.
$700 100
$500 50
$300 0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JA
7 8 9 0 1 2
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
August Sales Statistics
(Single-family Homes)
Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last m onth
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales
San Francisco $ 768,000 $1,001,306 229 47 104.3% 29.1% 20.8% -14.2% -4.1% -17.6% 12.3%
D1: Northw est $1,075,000 $1,394,588 17 36 104.4% 11.4% 33.2% 41.7% -13.4% -8.4% -5.6%
D2: Central West $ 748,500 $ 792,064 37 40 104.3% 7.0% 8.6% -11.9% 4.3% 2.9% 32.1%
D3: Southw est $ 518,000 $ 577,711 19 37 106.2% 11.9% 1.2% 0.0% 2.4% 4.8% 11.8%
D4: Tw in Peaks $1,095,000 $1,174,702 26 50 102.3% 25.1% 20.5% 44.4% 25.1% 21.7% 23.8%
D5: Central $1,415,000 $1,743,790 34 36 103.3% -5.5% 4.9% 54.5% -10.2% 1.0% -8.1%
D6: Central North $1,395,000 $1,383,333 3 54 97.4% 19.5% 18.5% 50.0% 5.3% -27.4% 0.0%
D7: North $4,310,500 $4,230,250 4 61 102.6% 47.7% 30.1% -50.0% 11.2% -36.4% -50.0%
D8: Northeast $ 940,875 $ 940,875 1 33 85.5% -61.6% -71.5% -75.0% -45.5% -45.5% -50.0%
D9: Central East $ 785,050 $ 794,824 30 40 106.8% 15.3% 10.8% 50.0% -11.8% -15.9% 30.4%
Page 2 D10: Southeast $ 516,000 $ 508,140 57 64 108.2% 9.2% 11.9% 35.7% 2.2% 12.7% 21.3%

3. San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Year-Over-Year Median Sales Price Change
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA
-10.0% 7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0%
-30.0%
© 2011 rereport.com
FORECLOSURE STATISTICS
In San Francisco, notices of default, the first step in the Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank
foreclosure process, fell in July from the year before by will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an
5.8%. They were up 8.3% from June. Portents of com- investor, bids more than the bank's opening bid, the
ing attractions? property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go
back to the bank and become part of that bank's REO
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auc-
inventory.
tion, and serve as the homeowner's final notice before
sale, were down 24.5% year-over-year. But, they were In August, cancellations were off 10.1% from July.
up 11.3% from June. Year-over-year, cancellations were down 16.8%.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are Properties going back-to-bank jumped 17.4% from
only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be June, and were down 54.7% year-over-year.
cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan
The total number of properties that have had a notice of
modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal re-
default filed decreased by 30.2% compared to last year.
quirement to re-file the notice after extended postpone-
ments, like bankruptcy.
(Continued on page 4)
San Francisco Condos: Sold Prices & Unit Sales
(3-month moving average — $000's)
$1,000 350
Table Definitions
$900 300 _______________
$800 250
$700 200 Median Price
The price at which 50% of pric-
$600 150
es were higher and 50%were
$500 100 lower.
$400 50
$300 0 Average Price
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JA Add all prices and divide by the
7 8 9 0 1 2 number of sales.
Ave Med Units © 2012 rereport.com
SP/LP
August Sales Statistics Sales price to list price ratio or
the price paid for the property
(Condos/TICs/Co-ops/Lofts) divided by the asking price.
Prices Unit Change from last year Change from last m onth
Median Average Sales DOM SP/LP Median Average Sales Median Average Sales DOI
San Francisco $ 730,000 $ 813,011 298 54 101.1% 17.1% 17.3% 35.5% 5.4% 4.1% 12.9% Days of Inventory, or how many
D1: Northw est $ 777,500 $ 782,917 12 66 100.4% 3.8% -2.1% -29.4% -2.8% -3.7% -14.3% days it would take to sell all the
property for sale at the current
D2: Central West $ 740,000 $ 723,333 3 38 99.8% 82.7% 80.2% 0.0% -1.5% -2.2% -50.0% rate of sales.
D3: Southw est $ 315,500 $ 316,583 6 128 98.9% 15.6% 16.0% 500.0% n/a n/a n/a
D4: Tw in Peaks $ 459,500 $ 527,000 4 54 104.8% -9.5% -6.1% 33.3% 0.1% -0.6% -20.0% Pend
D5: Central $ 855,000 $ 909,103 39 37 105.8% 29.5% 27.8% -9.3% -2.3% 6.1% 18.2% Property under contract to sell
that hasn’t closed escrow.
D6: Central North $ 803,000 $ 787,206 34 53 104.3% 14.7% 21.1% 161.5% 16.3% 13.1% 30.8%
D7: North $ 805,000 $ 912,602 26 59 100.9% -12.1% -25.0% 85.7% -8.5% -1.3% -16.1% Inven
D8: Northeast $ 625,000 $ 798,522 70 77 99.7% 12.9% 29.9% 75.0% -17.7% -13.0% 59.1% Number of properties actively
D9: Central East $ 720,000 $ 862,772 95 40 99.1% 10.9% 12.7% 50.8% 10.8% 22.6% -5.9% for sale as of the last day of the
month.
D10: Southeast $ 299,000 $ 292,812 8 37 103.2% 19.6% 22.3% 166.7% 6.8% -9.4% 166.7%

4. THE REAL ESTATE REPORT
San Francisco
Robb Fleischer
American Marketing Systems, Inc.
2800 Van Ness Avenue
San Francisco, CA 94109
Go online to see the full report
with the district by district breakdown:
HTTP://WWW.AMSIRES.COM/STAFF/ROBB
San Francisco Homes: Sales Momentum
(Continued from page 3)
25.0
The total number of properties sched- 20.0
uled for sale declined by 17.9% year- 15.0
over-year. 10.0
5.0
The number of properties owned by the 0.0
banks fell 20.3% year-over-year. Banks -5.0 0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA
now own about 523 properties in San -10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
Francisco. At the current rate of sales, -15.0
this is about a five weeks supply. Five -20.0
to six months supply is normal. -25.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
Data supplied by
http://foreclosureradar.com.
San Francisco Condos/Lofts: Sales Momentum
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
0 FMAMJ JASOND0 FMAMJ JA SOND0 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JASOND1 FMAMJ JA SOND1 FMAMJ JA
-10.0
7 8 9 0 1 2
-20.0
-30.0
-40.0
-50.0
Sales Pricing © 2012 rereport.com
The Real Estate Market Trends Report is published and copyrighted by http://rereport.com.