This document discusses strategic roadmapping from an outside-in perspective. It summarizes the key points from books and articles advocating an outside-in focus on customers and trends, rather than an inside-out focus on internal resources and costs. The document then provides an overview of the strategic roadmapping process, from conducting an environmental assessment and identifying trends to prioritizing trends, developing future scenarios, and defining strategic problems to solve. Examples of roadmapping outputs like swimlanes, trends, and an automotive industry assessment are also included. The document concludes by introducing the speakers, Irene Petrick and Russ Martinelli, experts in strategic roadmapping.

1. Roadmapping the Future
from the Outside In
Irene J. Petrick, Ph.D.
irene.petrick@trendscapeig.com
Irene J. Petrick & Russ Martinelli
Webinar
October 15, 2015
Russ Martinelli
russ.martinelli@trendscapeig.com

2. Strategy from the Outside-in: Profiting from
Customer Value
In 2010, George Day and Christine Moorman published a book
that would go on to win the Berry-AMA 2011 Book Prize for the
best book in marketing. Their argument:
Shareholder value, core competence, six sigma and right
sizing – all influential strategy ideas – have lured many
companies into a dangerous internal focus, viewing the world
from the inside-out. This type of thinking distracts companies
from the core purpose of a business: to create and serve
customers.

3. In 2010, Forbes noted
“With all of the recent changes in the market, it’s more important than
ever to know and understand your customers. When revenues are
down, it is natural to focus on short-term strategies that eliminate
costs, yet an internal focus can debilitate your business down the
line. Instead, enterprises should focus on external trends, customer
behaviors and new technologies that are changing the industry
landscape going forward.”
Rob Tarkoff, “ The Value of an ‘Outside-In’ Strategy, FORBES, 12-1-2010

4. More recently, Inc. again stressed this point
“The two most important questions for entrepreneurs looking to take
their business to the next level? ‘How can we play our current hands
of cards better’ and ‘How is the world changing around us and why?’”
[and they went on…]
“Both questions are essential for identifying a successful business
strategy and eventually need to be tightly integrated. But where
you start may influence greatly where you end up.”
Paul Schoemaker,
http://www.inc.com/paul-schoemaker/questions-to-ask-when-setting-your-companys-strategy.html

5. What are we trying to accomplish?
Technology
Development
Applied Research
Basic Research
Sources of
Competitive
Advantage
Internal
Resources
Manufacturing Outsourcing Strategy
I/P Partnership Strategy
External
Resources
Capabilities
Manufacturing
I/P
Strategy
Strategy
Composite Roadmap
PRODUCT GoalProduct Portfolio Plan
Government, Social, International and Other Factors
Environment
Market
Changing Customer/Consumer Needs & Wants
Changing Path to the Market
External
Factors
Assessment Roadmap

6. Strategic Roadmapping: The basics…
To be grammatically precise:
– Roadmap (noun)
– Roadmapping (verb )
Lots of options, but some common traits:
– Decomposition of complex systems into pieces
– Decomposition along functional lines (frequently)
– Graphic representation over time (generally on the
horizontal)
Roadmaps generally come in sets
The picture is
nice; the
discussion is
everything!
Important
Invaluable

7. The Strategic Roadmapping Life Cycle

8. Call to
action
STRATEGIC
IMPERATIVE: An
external competitive
threat creates an
appetite for change and
prompts the organization
to identify strategic goals
ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT:
Brainstorming
sessions about
events that may
occur in the future
help map the lay of
the land
TRENDS &
ASSUMPTIONS:
Discussions while
“walking the wall”
identify key trends
and assumptions.
Assumptions help
teams question
their dominant
logic.
TREND PRIORITIZATION:
Voting through “wisdom of
the crowd” helps to identify
the few critical trends.
Filtering is based on the
company’s strategic
imperative
CRITICAL TRENDS AND
ASSUMPTIONS AS INPUTS
TO STORYTELLING:
Prioritized trends and the
assumptions identified are used
as input to small groups
developing scenarios.
STORY TELLING &
PROBLEM FINDING:
Small groups take 2-4
critical trends and
envision a future scenario
around those trends. The
group tells a story about
that future world and the
problems that exist in it,
often from the point of
view of the end user.
Envisioning the future
from the outside in

9. Defines the strategic
problem to be solved
Drives non-incremental
thinking
Forces ‘redrawing of the
box’
Sets the strategic compass
for the work that follows
CALL
TO
ACTION
Beginning with the Call to Action
Our favorite…
“I have a multi-billion dollar
business”
“I have 98% market share”
“I have a successful team”
“I have to grow 10% year-
over-year…”

10. Developing swimlanes
• Look at the external environment
– What factors are driving the user experience and the expecations of users?
– What factors are driving the competitive landscape?
– Are there global issues related to this environment?
– What does the ecosystem look like and what might be influencing this?
• We recommend
– Always have an end user swimlane
– Most assessment roadmaps include some type of IT related swimlane
– Rule of thumb: If you have fewer than 5 swimlanes you’re probably not
granular enough; but if you have more than 8 swimlanes, most teams get
bogged down in where to put their observed future events

11. Environment element examples
Autostereoscopic
3D technology
becomes available
Youth vs elderly:
Volume & income
earning trends make
both equal oppty
mkts with distinct
needs
Microtransactions
become primary
form of online
consumption
Face recognition
becomes the basis for
personalized car
experience
“Good” Examples
“Bad” Examples
Intelligent
customized
devices
Virtual learning
replaces physical
classrooms
Voice
Recognition
Home size
declines
E-privacy laws

12. Boeing’s outside in view of key future trends
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132006 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920052004 20212020 2022 2023
2024-
2030CATEGORY
GLOBAL AIR
TRANSPORT
ENVIRONMENT
AIRLINE
ECONOMICS
ENVIRONMENT
AIR TRAVEL
SYSTEM
ENVIRONMENT
NOISE/
EMISSIONS/
MATERIALS
COMPANY
BUSINESS
ENVIRONMENT
PRODUCTS
FOR PEOPLE
COMPETITION
GOVERNMENT–
SAFETY/
CERTIFICATION/
SECURITY

13. But it didn’t start out as a beautiful picture

14. Russ Martinelli and Irene Petrick discuss session outputs
Analyzing assessment roadmaps – walking the wall
Key outcomes from the
assessment session:
1. Assumptions
2. Trends
3. Problems
4. Minority report

15. Example: Automotive industry environmental assessment
2015-16 2017-18 2019-20 2021-22
End Users
Emerging Markets
Government
Technology
Competition
Relatively Certain: Yellow
Uncertain: GreenGreen
Yellow
Home energy is
managed from the car
Location based
targeted advertising
delivered to devices
based on location
Gvt limits
text/multimedia
UI for driver
Entertainment
profiles/data stored in
the cloud
US and EU unable to agree
on connected car secuirity
and privacy regs. Go sepeate
ways in developing stds
Better UI (contextual
recog, gesture, face
reg) for automotives
Passenger profiles
for favorite songs,
apps, etc
Moble media
adoption takes off
in emerging
markets
China will develop
own vehicle ent.
systems
Gvt requires
increased %
recycleability
Car timesharing (vs
single ownership)
becomes wide spread in
emerging markets
Driverless
becomes major
mode of
transportation
China
establishes 20%
market share in
US and EMEA
Smart cities
take off -
requires fewer
cars
DOTs establish
high speed lanes
for autonomous
driving - cars only
Device physical forms
completely disappear &
human machine interactions
change radically
Form factor (interface
and portability
dominate user
experience
Domestic
Chinese OEM
passes Toyota in
WW production
First law
passes
requiring voice
control
Gvt mandates
our use of
electric/environm
ental safe cars
Adaptive
heads up
display goes
mainstream
Autopilot
features in
over 25% of
cars
Manage, connect to and
share all data
(music/files) from thei
car
China, Brazil and India
become large emerging
markets demanding high-end
systems in their cars
China total auto
fleet hits 100
million
Gvt makes
handheld
device use in
cars illegal
Natural language
processing becomes
integral to the car
experience
Gvts WW require
controlled/limited mobile
device operation in
vehicles due to fatalities
Pervasive
remote
access/control
to car
Use-based
revenue
generater
favored by govt
Affordable personal transport for EM
countries leads to further productivity
growth and shifts from urban centers
Multi-media
popular
worldwide for
passengers
Cameras
become common
in cars - even low
end
Touchscreen
available for nav/
headunit control
Dual view
display avail
for high end
cars
Providing a vertical
solution addressing
complexity & TTM
Technology in the
car is SAFE,
SECURE, and
SMART
BB access
used in cars
for connectivity
Seamless, stds-
based connectivity
between any car
and any device
Competitor
provides fully
warranteed vertical
stacks
One big supplier
gives up on
market
ISV makes a
big play to get
in the auto
services
China becomes
exporter of
autos/trucks to
US & Europe
CE device connectivity
pervasive for
seamless access to
content control
Electric / hybrid
cars gain 30%
market share
Cars unlock & self-
start based on our
fingerprints or retina
Cars can do a
breath analysis and
'not start' to prevent
DUI
Car-to-car
communications
featured on over
50% of new cars

16. Call to
action
STRATEGIC
IMPERATIVE: An
external competitive
threat creates an
appetite for change and
prompts the organization
to identify strategic goals
ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT:
Brainstorming
sessions about
events that may
occur in the future
help map the lay of
the land
TRENDS &
ASSUMPTIONS:
Discussions while
“walking the wall”
identify key trends
and assumptions.
Assumptions help
teams question
their dominant
logic.
TREND PRIORITIZATION:
Voting through “wisdom of
the crowd” helps to identify
the few critical trends.
Filtering is based on the
company’s strategic
imperative
CRITICAL TRENDS AND
ASSUMPTIONS AS INPUTS
TO STORYTELLING:
Prioritized trends and the
assumptions identified are used
as input to small groups
developing scenarios.
STORY TELLING &
PROBLEM FINDING:
Small groups take 2-4
critical trends and
envision a future scenario
around those trends. The
group tells a story about
that future world and the
problems that exist in it,
often from the point of
view of the end user.
Envisioning the future
from the outside in

17. Using crowd sourcing to filter environmental trends
Many trends – some are more important than others
Key outcomes from trend analysis:
1. Call to action and strategic
intent used to prioritize
2. Cross-disciplinary perspective
3. Top trends identified
4. Used to create future scenarios

18. • Any time, any device,
anywhere access to content
expectation is increasing
• Shared ownership of
vehicles will increase in
emerging markets
• Governments fund 'smart
city' development (including
smart roads)
• Pay-as-you-drive insurance
increases
• Governments becoming
more reliant on technology
to collect vehicle revenue
• Multiple cameras in
automobiles become
ubiquitous
• Consolidation of networks in
the vehicle will occur
• Mobile devices make the
automobile a “dumb terminal”
• The number and diversity of
sensors in the automobile
increases
• Avionics technology to lead
automobile technology
Example: Sample trends from environmental
assessment and filtering

19. Call to
action
STRATEGIC
IMPERATIVE: An
external competitive
threat creates an
appetite for change and
prompts the organization
to identify strategic goals
ENVIRONMENTAL
ASSESSMENT:
Brainstorming
sessions about
events that may
occur in the future
help map the lay of
the land
TRENDS &
ASSUMPTIONS:
Discussions while
“walking the wall”
identify key trends
and assumptions.
Assumptions help
teams question
their dominant
logic.
TREND PRIORITIZATION:
Voting through “wisdom of
the crowd” helps to identify
the few critical trends.
Filtering is based on the
company’s strategic
imperative
CRITICAL TRENDS AND
ASSUMPTIONS AS INPUTS
TO STORYTELLING:
Prioritized trends and the
assumptions identified are used
as input to small groups
developing scenarios.
STORY TELLING &
PROBLEM FINDING:
Small groups take 2-4
critical trends and
envision a future scenario
around those trends. The
group tells a story about
that future world and the
problems that exist in it,
often from the point of
view of the end user.
Envisioning the future
from the outside in
Webinar #2
Oct 29th

20. Questions…

21. Irene J. Petrick, managing director of TrendScape Innovation Group and former
Penn State University professor, is an internationally recognized expert in
strategic roadmapping. She is actively engaged with companies in their
innovation and technology strategy activities, including work with 12 Fortune 100
companies, the U.S. military, and a wide variety of small- to medium-sized
enterprises. She has over 25 years of experience in technology planning,
management, and product development in both academic and industrial settings.
Irene is author or co-author on more than 150 publications and presentations.
irene.petrick@trendscapeig.com
Russ Martinelli, managing director of TrendScape Innovation Group is engaged
with companies in the areas of business strategy development, business model
evaluation, ecosystem development, and technology roadmapping. He has over
20 years of experience in strategy development; portfolio management; new
product development program management; and engineering in the high-tech,
aerospace and defense, medical, and non-profit industries. Russ is the co-author
of multiple books including Program Management for Improved Business Results,
and Leading Global Project Teams, and over 60 articles and publications.
russ.martinelli@trendscapeig.com