This document discusses the PreMortem risk identification technique. It begins with an overview of risk and risk management. It then explains that a PreMortem explores why a project might fail in the future, unlike a post-mortem which examines why something already failed. The technique involves a team imagining a project failure, individually listing possible causes, consolidating the lists, revisiting the project plan to address top risks, and periodically reviewing risks. The PreMortem is presented as a way to use imagination to proactively identify risks and strengthen a project plan.

1. by Liora Shapiro
August 2008
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

2. Agenda
> Overview
> Identify Risks by PreMortem
> Summary
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

3.  Risk - An uncertain event or condition that, if
it occurs, has a positive or negative effect on
a project’s objectives
Source: PMBOK
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

4.  Risk Management - identify potential
problems before they occur, so that risk-
handling activities may be planned and
invoked as needed … to mitigate adverse
impacts on achieving objectives
Source: CMMI
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

5.  While a PostMortem helps us learn why a patient
has died, a PreMortem explores why a project
might die in the future
The PreMortem technique helps anticipate a
plan's weaknesses
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

6.  Preparation
 Team members should already be familiar with the
plan, or else have the plan described to them so
they can understand what is supposed to be
happening.
 Team members take out sheets of paper and get
relaxed in their chairs.
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

7.  Imagine a fiasco
 Imagine the project has totally
failed.
 Then ask, “What could have
caused this?”
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

8.  Generate reasons for failure
 Spend the next three minutes writing
down all the reasons they think the
project failed.
 Each person has a different set of
experiences, a different set of scars, and
a different mental model.
 You get what the collective knowledge in
the room can produce.
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

9.  Consolidate the lists
 Ask each person to state one item from
the list.
 Each item is recorded on a whiteboard.
 This process continues until every
member of the group has revealed every
item on their list.
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

10.  Revisit the plan
 The team can address the two or three items of
greatest concern, and then schedule another
meeting to discuss ideas for avoiding or minimizing
other problems
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

11.  Periodically review the list
 Monitor preventive plan
 re-sensitise the team to the
problems that may be emerging
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

12.  Use your imagination to identify risks
 Preparation
 Imagine a fiasco
 Generate reasons for failure
 Consolidate the lists
 Revisit the plan
 Periodically review the list
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244

13. Thank you
Liora Shapiro PMP 052-6194244