3. 377
600
2011 2031
Urbanisation (in millions)
4
25
FY2012 FY2022
FDI Inflows (USD billion)
Source: Ministry of Tourism, Census 2011, Aranca Research
CAGR: 2.4%
360.0
649.5
2010 2020
Construction Market
CAGR: 6.1%
CAGR: 20.1%
FDI in the sector is estimated to
grow to USD25 billion in 10
years
Fourth largest sector in terms of
FDI inflows
The number of Indians living in
urban areas will increase from
the current 377 million to about
600 million by 2031
Rapid urbanisation bodes well
for the sector
Indian construction market is
expected to more than double
to USD649.5 billion by 2020
from USD360 billion in 2010
Indian construction market is
expected to be the world’s third
largest by 2020
4. Growing demand
Source: BMI (Business Monitor International), Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Aranca Research
Notes: FDI - Foreign Direct Investment; 2020E - Estimate for 2020
Growing demand
• Demand for residential properties
has surged due to increased
urbanisation and rising household
income
• Growing economy driving demand
for commercial and retail space
Attractive opportunities
• Growing requirements of
space from sectors such as
education and healthcare
• Growth in tourism providing
opportunities in the hospitality
sector
Policy support
• Allocation of USD2.8 billion for rural
housing for FY14 budget
• The government has allowed FDI of
up to 100 per cent in development
projects for townships and
settlements
Increasing Investments
• FDI in real estate of USD22.67
billion between April 2000 and
August 2013
• During April 2012–January 2013,
the real estate sector accounted
for 8.8 per cent of total FDI inflows
into India
2010–11
Market
size:
USD55.6
billion
2020E
Market
size:
USD180
billion
Advantage
India
5. • Fragmented market with few large players
• Demand of over 3,00,000 units in the seven major cities in 2010.
Residential space supply of nearly 1.4 billion sq ft is expected to
come by 2015 out of the planned supply of 2.1 billion sq ft across 10
major cities
Real estate sector
Commercial space
Retail space
Hospitality space
SEZs
• Few players with presence across India
• Of a total supply of 445 million sq ft of office space planned in 10
major cities, around 167 million sq ft would come up during 2013 -15
with the demand being 66 million sq ft during the same period
• FDI in multi- brand retail to boost demand
• Fragmented market with few national players
• Of a total planned supply of 67 million sq ft across major cities,
around 38 million sq ft would come up during 2013 -15
• A competitive market with many players
• Over 121,000 hotel rooms in the country as of 2011
• The hotel industry grew 13 per cent during 2011–12
Residential space
Source: Cushman and Wakefield, Knight Frank, CRISIL, Aranca Research
Notes: SEZ - Special Economic Zone. IT - Information Technology, ITeS - Information Technology Enabled Services, * - As of March 2013
• The government has formally approved 577 SEZs*
• Majority of the SEZs are in the IT/ ITeS sector
6. 50.1 53.3 55.6
66.8
180
FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 FY2011 FY 2020E
Market size of real estate in India (USD billion)Real estate contributes about 5 per cent to India’s GDP
The market size of real estate in India is expected to
increase at a CAGR of 11.2 per cent during FY2008 - 2020
The real estate sector is estimated to be worth USD180
billion by 2020
Source: BMI, Aranca Research
Notes: CAGR - Compounded Annual Growth Rate,
E - Estimates
CAGR: 11.2%
7. Source: Ministry of Housing and Urban Poverty Alleviation,
RBI, CRISIL, Aranca Research
Note: E - Estimates
Urban-rural housing shortage (million)The urban housing shortage is estimated at 18.7 million in
2012
The housing shortage in rural India stood at 47.4 million as
of 2012
The housing shortage in urban and rural India will be
around 21.7 and 19.7 million units respectively in 2014
Total rural housing shortage is estimated at 43.7 million
during the period 2012-2017
Total housing shortage for XII plan period (2012-2017) is
estimated to be 48.8 millions
Significant increase in real estate activity in cities like
Indore, Raipur, Ahmadabad, Jaipur and other two-tier cities;
this has opened new avenues of growth for the sector
15
18
25
19 21 19 22
34
30
27 27
26
47
20
2001 2005 2007 2008 2010 2012 2014E
Urban Rural
8. Scenario
Key drivers
Notable Trends
A localised, fragmented market presents
opportunities for consolidation
Few large, pan-India players such as DLF and
Unitech
Rapid urbanisation
Rise in the number of nuclear families
Easy availability of finance
Repatriation of NRIs and HNIs
Demand to grow at a CAGR of 19 per cent
between 2010 and 2014 - 40 per cent of this from
Tier 1 cities
At 3x to 4x, demand-supply gap is highest in the
low and mid income segments
Increase in real estate projects in two-tier and
three-tier cities
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable
trends
Demand projections across top 7 cities (‘000 units)
350 410
500
600
710
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Demand analysis of top 7 cities (‘000 units) 2010-14
830 800
300
220 180 160 160
Mumbai
NCR
Pune
Bengaluru
Chennai
Kolkata
Hyderabad
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Notes: NRI - Non-resident Indian; HNI - High Net-worth Individual
9. Demand projections across top 7 cities (million sq ft)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Notes: MNC - Multinational Corporation, BFSI - Banking, Financial and Insurance Services;
CBD - Central Business District, SBD - Special Business District, NCR - National Capital Region
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable Trends
Few large developers with a pan-India presence
dominate the market
Operating model has shifted from sales to a lease-
and-maintenance
Rapid growth in services sectors: IT/ITeS, BFSI
and Telecom
Rising demand from MNCs
Demand for office space in Tier 2 cities
Mumbai, NCR and Bengaluru account for 46 per
cent of total office space demand in India
Demand growth projected to be the highest in Tier
2 cities such as Kolkata and Chennai during 2010-
14
Business activity shifting from CBDs to SBDs, Tier
1 to Tier 2 cities
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable
trends
33 36 39
42 44
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Demand analysis of top 7 cities (million sq ft) 2010-14
39 38 36
30 25 22
10
Bengaluru
Mumbai
NCR
Chennai
Hyderabad
Pune
Kolkata
10. Demand projections across top 7 cities (million sq ft)
Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Currently, retail accounts for a small portion of the
Indian real estate market
Organised retailers are few, and the organised
retail space is mostly developed by
residential/office space developers
Booming consumerism in India
Organised retail sector growing 25-30 per cent
annually
Entry of MNC retailers
NCR accounts for about 30 per cent of the total
mall supply
About 53 per cent of demand for total mall space in
India expected to come from top seven cities
Demand for retail space on high streets is quite
high as well
Increase in FDI limit for multi-brand retail will lead
to significantly higher demand for retail space
Scenario
Key drivers
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable
trends
3 4
5
7
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Demand analysis of top 7 cities (million sq ft) 2010-14
8 7
6
3
2 2 2
Bengaluru
Mumbai
NCR
Kolkata
Pune
Hyderabad
Chennai
11. Source: Knight Frank India, Aranca Research
Note: FSI - Floor Space Index
NCR and Mumbai are by far the biggest hospitality
markets in India, followed by Bengaluru,
Hyderabad and Chennai
Besides hotels, the hospitality market comprises
serviced apartments and convention centres
A robust domestic tourism industry
The increasingly global nature of Indian
businesses boosting business travel
Tax incentives for hotels and higher FSI
Serviced apartments appear particularly attractive
within the hospitality space
Government initiatives to promote tourism in Tier 2
and Tier 3 cities is generating significant demand
for hotels in such cities, especially for budget
hotels
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable Trends
Scenario
Key drivers
Notable
trends
Demand projections (no of rooms)
Demand analysis of top 7 cities (no of rooms) 2010-14
32,660 35,503
38,789
43,828
2010 2011 2012 2013
10,519 10,519
4,821
3,945 3,506 2,630
1,315NCR
Mumbai
Hyderabad
Bengaluru
Chennai
Pune
Kolkata
13. Real GDP growth rates of major economiesThe Indian economy experienced robust growth in the past
decade and is expected to be one of the fastest growing
economies in the coming years
Demand for commercial property is being driven by the
country’s economic growth
India’s real GDP growth rate is estimated to be 3.8 per cent
in 2013 from 10.55 per cent in 2010. India’s real GDP is
estimated to be 6.72 per cent in 2018
Source: IMF, Aranca Research
Note: F - Forecast
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F
China India
Advanced Economies Emerging Economies
14. Population breakup of India (million)The increasing urban population is expected to cross 600
million by 2031
Urbanisation and growing household income is driving
demand for residential real estate and growth in the retail
sector
Source: Indian Census, Knight Frank,
Mckinsey estimates, Aranca Research
Note: E - Estimate
220 290
377
600
856
1,040
1,210
1,470
1991 2001 2011 2030E
Urban Population Total Population
15. 5.1 5.3
5.2
5.8
6.3
6.6
5.3
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Foreign tourists arriving in India (million)In 2012, 6.6 million foreign tourists have arrived in India
Foreign Tourist arrival in India stood at 5.3 million during the
period January-October 2013
The number of foreign tourists arriving in India expanded at
a CAGR of 5.3 per cent during 2007–12
Source: Ministry of Tourism, Aranca Research
Note: 2013* - Figures for the period Jan-October 2013
CAGR: 5.3%
16. 10.7 11.8 11.1
14.2
16.6
17.7
14.6
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
20.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*
Foreign Exchange Earnings
Foreign exchange earnings from tourism in India
(USD billion)
India is estimated to have earned about USD17.7 billion
from the tourism sector in 2012
Foreign exchange earnings stood at USD14.6 billion during
the period January-October 2013
The growing inflows from tourists is expected to provide a
fillip to the hospitality sector
Source: Ministry of Tourism, Aranca Research
Note: 2013* - Figures for the period Jan-October 2013
CAGR: 10.6%
17. FDI in real estate as a per cent of total FDI in IndiaTotal FDI in the real estate sector during April 2000 –
September 2013 stood at around USD22.7 billion
Currently, real estate and construction accounts for over 22
per cent of total FDI, up from less than 4 per cent in 2006
Source: Dept of Industrial Policy & Promotion, Aranca Research
2.7%
6.3%
7.1% 7.4%
11.1%
0.7%
3.0%
8.9% 10.3% 11.0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Construction activities Real Estate
18. Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Venture Intelligence, Aranca Research
Major acquisitions in real estate sector in IndiaThere have been 110 deals in the real estate space
between 2001 and the first half of 2011
The biggest disclosed deal was the acquisition of DLF
Assets’ shares by Caraf Builders for USD696 million Target Acquirer
Value
(USD
million)
Year
Caraf Builders DLF Assets ltd 696.5 2009
Cowtown Land
Dvlp Pvt Ltd
Lodha Group 513.6 2011
Compact Disc Film
City
Jeff Morgan 320 2011
Oceanus Real
Estate
Warburg Pincus 318 2011
Indiabulls
Properties Pvt Ltd
Indiabulls Property
Invest Trust
223.1 2012
Embassy Property Blackstone 200 2012
Zenith Capitals
Limited
India Mansa
Developers Private
Limited
1.4 2013
19. Source: Grant Thornton, Venture Intelligence, Aranca Research
Top PE deals in Indian real estate sector in 2012Of the 43 private equity (PE) investments witnessed in the
sector during 2012, 35 had an announced value of USD1.14
billion
In terms of volume, residential projects accounted for 65 per
cent of overall investments in the sector during 2012, while
commercial projects accounted for 16 per cent
Foreign funds constituted almost 80 per cent of total
investments in the sector compared with 50 per cent in
2011
Mumbai continued to remain the hotspot for PE
investments, followed by Bengaluru and NCR
A shift in trend is evident from the fact that the maximum
number of PE deals in the year were executed through
Special Purpose Vehicles (SPV) as against via both entity
and SPV modes in the previous year
Another major trend evident in recent times is the increasing
focus of private PE players on high-end and luxury projects
Investor Investee
Investment
(USD million)
Blackstone
Manyata
Embassy
Business Park
160.0
APG and Group of
investors
Godrej
Properties
140.8
Government of Singapore
Investment Corporation
(GIC)
Godrej
Properties
98.2
Morgan Stanley Real
Estate Investment
Supertech 91.4
Baring Private Equity
Partners India
Bengaluru
based RMZ
Corp
91.4
Morgan Stanley
Sheth
Developers
Private Limited
84.8
20. Source: Grant Thornton, Venture Intelligence, Aranca Research
Top PE deals in Indian real estate sector in 2013
Investor Investee
Investment
(USD million)
Blackstone Group,
HDFC, Embassy
Group
Vrindavan Tech
Village
367
Blackstone
HCC Real Estate
Ltd - 247 HCC
Park
169
Blackstone
Panchshil Realty -
Eon Free Zone
81.82
Red Fort Capital
Lotus Green
Developers
58.87
IFC
Smart Value
Homes Ltd
50
The PE investments in real estate stood at USD276 million
during January-June 2013 with a total of 13 deals
Real Estate constituted 9 per cent of the total PE deal value
in Q3 2013 (July-September 2013)
21. For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Share of SEZ exports in total exports of India100 per cent FDI permitted in real estate projects within
Special Economic Zone (SEZ)
100 per cent FDI permitted for developing townships within
SEZs with residential areas, markets, playgrounds, clubs,
recreation centers, etc.
Exports from SEZs registered a yoy growth of 30.6 per cent
in FY13 and accounted for 29 per cent of total exports
during FY 2013
Industry players, including realtors and property analysts,
are rooting for the creation of "special residential zones"
(SRZs), along the lines of SEZs
Minimum land requirement has been brought down from
1000 hectares to 500 hectares for multi-product SEZ and for
sector-specific SEZs to 50 hectares
Source: Ministry of Commerce and Industry, Aranca Research
Note: FY14* - April 2013 to June 2013
10% 12%
26% 28% 25% 29% 28%
90% 88%
74% 72% 75% 71% 72%
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY 14*
SEZ % of exports Other % of exports
22. For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Ease in housing
finances
• Additional deduction of up to USD1,841 on interests payable on home loans of up to
USD46,032 announced in the Union Budget 2013–14
• To liberalise scheme of interest subversion of 1 per cent on home loan by including loans
of up to USD31,250 for houses that cost up to USD52,080
Housing for
economically weaker
sections
• Allocation of USD1.1 billion for Rural Housing Fund in FY14 budget
• Allocation of USD0.37 billion for Urban Housing Fund in FY14 budget to bridge the huge
shortage of housing in certain urban areas
FDI
• The government has allowed FDI of up to 100 per cent in development projects for
townships and settlements
• FDI of up to 100 per cent is allowed in the hotel and tourism sector through the automatic
route
23. Source: Company website, Aranca Research
Note: sq ft - Square Feet
1940 1950 1980 1990 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Development of 22 Urban
colonies
Developed 3000 acre
DLF City in Gurgaon
Focuses on IT Parks and
next generation malls
Building India’s largest mall
in Gurgaon
Market capitalisation of
USD7.32 billion as on 31
March 2013
Largest real estate company
with revenues of
USD0.72 billion (H1 FY14)
Ventures into
grade A office
spaces
Alliance with
Hilton
International
Commenced
development of
DLF Cyber City,
Gurgaon
FY13
USD1.4
billion
turnover
Net land bank of
348 million sq. feet
FY06
USD238
million
turnover
Founded by
Chaudhary
Raghavendra
Singh
24. Distribution of ongoing projects by area
(as of December 2012)
Key Facts
Started its first project in Mumbai in 1991
National real estate developer with presence across
12 cities
Differentiated joint development business model
resulted in a debt-equity ratio of less than one
The current potential developable area stands at
88.7* million sq ft
Ranked as one of India’s top 10 builders by
Construction World Architect & Builder Awards,
2011
Five new projects with 4.3 mn sq ft of saleable area
added to portfolio in FY13 YTD
Added 11 projects with 9.7 million sq ft saleable area
in the last six quarters
1 new project with 1.2 million sq ft of saleable area
added in NCR in Q2 FY14 along with additional 37
acres of contiguous land added to Panvel township
Source: Company website, Aranca Research
Note: * - As on September 30, 2013
81.6%
18.4%
Residential
Commercial
25. 23.7
34.2
44.8 41.4
53.2
29.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14*
55.7
66.1
99.1
160.6
191.0
85.8
0
50
100
150
200
250
FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14*
Profit before taxes (USD million)Total revenues (USD million)
Source: Company Annual Report, Aranca Research
Note: FY14* - Data for the period April 2013-September 2013
CAGR: 36%
CAGR: 22%
26. Real estate demand in education sector
(seven top cities)
The entry of major private players in the education sector
has created vast opportunities for the real estate sector
The top seven cities i.e. Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Mumbai,
Delhi, Pune, Chennai and Kolkata are likely to account for
70 per cent of total demand for real estate in the education
sector
Source: Cushman and Wakefiled, Aranca Research
Note: F - Forecast
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
2010
2011F
2012F
2013F
2014F
Area (million square feet)
27. Incremental demand across seven major cities
(million sq ft)
NCR is expected to have the highest incremental demand
from the education sector
The rising young population of India is expected to drive this
space
Source: Cushman and Wakefiled, Aranca Research
Note: NCR - National Capital Region
0
1
2
3
4
NCR
Mumbai
Pune
ChennaiKolkata
Bengaluru
Hyderabad
28. Healthcare
• The healthcare sector is estimated to grow at an annual rate of 15 per cent to USD100
billion by 2015
• India is expected to need additional 937,000 beds by 2015
• India still needs to add 3 million hospital beds to meet the global average of three for every
1,000 people
Senior citizen housing
• Emergence of nuclear families and growing urbanisation has given rise to several
townships that are developed to take care of the elderly
• A number of senior citizen housing projects have been planned; the segment is expected
to grow significantly in future
Service apartments
• Growth in the number of tourists has resulted in demand for service apartments
• This demand is likely to be on uptrend and presents opportunities for the unorganised
sector
Source: Fitch Ratings, Aranca Research
29. Source: Ministry of Tourism, BMI, Aranca Research
Note: F - Forecast
Forecasts of foreign tourists arriving in India
(million)
Foreign tourist arrivals are expected to increase at a CAGR
of 11.7 per cent during 2012–15
The number of foreign tourists arriving in India by 2015 is
anticipated to be over 9.2 million
Foreign tourist arrivals during the period January to October
2013 were 5.3 million
6.6
7.9
8.5 9.2
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
CAGR: 11.7%
30. Source: BMI, Aranca Research
Note: F stands for Forecasts
Forecasts of foreign exchange earnings from
tourism in India (USD billion)
Foreign exchange earnings from tourism is expected to rise
at a CAGR of 4.1 per cent during 2012–15
Foreign exchange earned is forecast to cross USD19 billion
in 2015
Foreign exchange earnings from tourism during the period
January to October 2013 were USD14.6 billion
17.7
18.1
19.0
19.9
2012 2013F 2014F 2015F
CAGR: 4.1%
31. Source: BMI, Cushman & Wakefield, Aranca Research
Note: F - Forecast
Capacity of hotels in India (‘000)The number of hotel rooms in India as of 2011 stood at
121,000
50,000 new hotel rooms are expected to be added over the
next 4–5 years across India’s top six cities
The number of hotel beds in the country is expected to
increase to 443,000 by 2015
98 109 121
135 154
176 197
210 241
262 295
339
392
443
2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F
Number of hotel rooms Number of hotel beds
32. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aranca Research
Office market in Southern India (in million sq ft)The Southern Indian States – Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu
and Karnataka – have been the major drivers of economic
growth in India over the last decade. The three states
together account for about 22 per cent of India’s GDP
Nearly 45 per cent of India’s office stock is represented by
these states; over 64 per cent of the country’s IT SEZs are
housed in this region
Office stock in the Southern cities is projected* to grow at a
CAGR of 8 per cent between 2012 and 2016
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012E 2014F 2016F
Supply Net absorption Vacancy Rate - RHS
Note: * - Projections by Jones Lang LaSalle
33. Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, Aranca Research
Net absorption rate in Southern India’s residential market is
once again climbing up to pre-crisis peaks; during 1Q12, net
absorption rate stood at 15.1 per cent, compared to 17.8 per
cent in 1Q08
A growing migrant population due to increasing job
opportunities, together with healthy infrastructure
development, is underpinning demand in the region’s
residential real estate market
Residential market in Southern India
(number of units)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
1Q08 3Q08 1Q09 3Q09 1Q10 3Q10 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12
New launches Net absorption Absorption rate - RHS
34. The Confederation of Real Estate Developers’ Associations of India (CREDAI)
National Secretariat, 703, Ansal Bhawan,
16, Kasturba Gandhi Marg, New Delhi – 110 001
Tel: (011) 43126262/43126200
Fax: 91 11 43126211
E-mail: info@credai.org
Website: www.credai.org
Builders' Association of India (BAI)
G-1/G-20, Commerce Centre, J. Dadajee Road,
Tardeo, Mumbai – 400034
Tel: 91 22 23514134, 23514802, 23520507
Fax: 91 22 23521328
E-mail: bai@vsnl.com, baihq.mumbai@gmail.com
Website: www.baionline.in
35. BFSI: Banking, Financial Services and Insurance
CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
CBD: Central Business District
FDI: Foreign Direct Investment
FSI: Floor Space Index
HNI: High Net-worth Individual
GOI: Government of India
INR: Indian Rupee
IT/ITeS: Information Technology/Information Technology enabled Services
MNC: Multinational Corporation
NRI: Non Resident Indian
36. SBD: Special Business District
SEZ: Special Economic Zone
USD: US Dollar
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
37. Year INR equivalent of one USD
2004-05 44.95
2005-06 44.28
2006-07 45.28
2007-08 40.24
2008-09 45.91
2009-10 47.41
2010-11 45.57
2011-12 47.94
2012-13 54.31
2013-14 59.23 (April-October 2013)
Exchange rates (Fiscal year)
Year INR equivalent of one USD
2005 45.55
2006 44.34
2007 39.45
2008 49.21
2009 46.76
2010 45.32
2011 45.64
2012 54.69
2013 57.72 (Jan-October 2013)
Exchange rates (Calendar year)
Average for the year
38. India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) engaged Aranca to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared
by Aranca in consultation with IBEF.
All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The
same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium
by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in
any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF.
This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this
presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the
content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice.
Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in
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