Real Estate Market Property Outlook 2017 - 2018

1. Real Estate Market
Property Outlook 2017 - 2018
Mani
REALTOR
PropNex Realty Pte Ltd
8300 4411
Help@AskRealtor.sg
https://www.linkedin.com/today/posts/AskRealtorMani

2. Disclaimer:
While every reasonable cause is taken to ensure the accuracy of information printed or
presented here, no responsibility can be accepted for any loss of inconvenience caused by
any error or omission. The ideas, suggestions, general principles, examples and other
information presented here are for reference and educational purposes only.
This presentation is not in anyway intended to give investment advise or recommendations
to buy, sell or lease properties or any form of property investment. PropNex shall have no
liability for any loss or expense whatsoever, relating to investment decisions made by the
audience.
All copyrights reserved.

3. What is the NEW Dynamics of the Market

4. (16 Residential Collective Sales Deals in First 10 Months)
En Bloc Sales in 2017

5. So far, 18 collective sales worth
S$6.72 billion this year
comprising mainly residential
developments have closed, with
over 2,700 existing homes expected
to be taken out of the market.
Over 10,000 new homes are
estimated to be built on these sites.
The breakdown pricing is estimated to be in the
range of S$2,100 – S$2,200 psf.

6. Collective Sales 2017
S/N Project Name Developer Price Purchase
1 One Tree Hill Gardens Lum Chang Holdings Limited $65 million
2 Rio Casa HUDC Oxley Holdings, KSH Holdings, Lian Beng Group and
Super Group’s Teo Family
$575 million
3 Goh&Goh Building BBR Holdings $101.5 million
4 Eunosville HUDC Jardine Matheson Group unit, MCL Land $765 million
5 The Albracca Sustained Land $69.12 million
6 Serangoon Ville HUDC Oxley Holdings $499 million
7 Tampines Court Sim Lian $970 million
8 Sun Rosier Sing Haiyi $271 million
9 Normanton Park Kingsford Huray $830.1 million
10 Amber Park Hong Leong Group $906.7 million
11 Jervois Gardens SC Global $72 million
12 Nanak Mansions UOL Associate $201.1 million
13 208 Yio Chu Kang Road Oxley Holdings $8.4 million
14 Dunearn Court Roxy-Pacific Holdings $36.3 million
15 Florence Regency Logan Property (Singapore) $629 million
16 Changi Garden Chip Eng Seng Corp $248.8 million

7. (Residential)
Collective Sales 2006 to 2017
YEAR VALUE
(S$M)
No. Of
Deals
2017 6,248
(6.248 Billion)
16
2016 1005.45 3
2015 380.00 1
2014 160.00 1
2013 1216.01 16
2012 1453.70 25
2011 3214.57 51
YEAR VALUE
(S$M)
No. Of
Deals
2010 1820.85 38
2009 100.80 1
2008 346.53 8
2007 11,515.96 88
2006 7,821.15 78

8. How will this impact the market ?
Land Bids First Half of 2017

9. Projected Launch Price

10. Comparison West Coast Vale Site
Land Bid in 2015 vs 2017
Developer bid 7% more in 18 monthsfor the same location.
What does this signal?

11. Ripple EffectTrend
on Projects

12. Legend
Estimated Sales Price
$1,700 - $1,800 psf $1,500 - $1,600 psf
$2,000 - $2,100 psf
$1,650 - $1,750 psf
$1,750 - $1,850 psf
$1,250 - $1,350 psf
$1,700 - $1,800 psf
$2,500 - $2,600 psf$2,200 - $2,300 psf
$1,700 - $1,800 psf
$3,400 - $3,600 psf
$1,900 - $2,000 psf
$1,950 - $2,050 psf
$1,700 - $1,800 psf

13. Price Trend in Various Regions ($ PSF)
Region 2015 / 2016 2016 / 2017 Expected 2018
Core Central Region $2,000 $2,200 - $2,500 $2,500 - $3,000
Rest of Core Central $1,500 $1,550 - $1,700 $1,700 - $1,900
Outside of Core
Central
$1,000 $1,150 - $1,300 $1,400 - $1,500
Executive
Condominium
$750 $800 - $830 $830 - $880
DBSS $550 $550 $550
HDB Resale $400 $400 $400
BTO $250 $250 $250

14. Catch theTrain

15. New Project Launches inYear 2018
North / North-East Region (District 19)
[CS] RIO CASA (APT)
Price: $575mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,500 - $1,600 psf
PARCVERA (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Completed year 2014
THE FLORIDA (EC)
99-year leasehold
Completed year 2000
EVERGREEN PARK (APT)
99-year leasehold
Completed year 1999
PALM GROVE (CONDO)
999-year leasehold
Completed year 2002
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$642 psf (5 Oct ‘17)
$638 psf (25 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $746
$697 psf (5 Oct ‘17)
$661 psf (17 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $708
$996 psf (20 Sep ‘17)
$993 psf (3 Mar ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,041
$1,003 psf (30 Aug ‘17)
$788 psf (17 Apr ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,006
PN Project
Forest Woods
from $1,343 psf
PN Project
Kingsford Waterbay
from $1,114 psf

16. New Project Launches inYear 2018
North / North-East Region (District 19)
[CS] SERANGOONVILLE (APT)
Price: $499mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,650 - $1,750 psf
KOVAN MELODY (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Completed year 2006CASA CAMBIO (CONDO)
Freehold
Completed year 2014
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$1,263 psf (8 Sep ‘17)
$1,056 psf (31 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,263
$1,128 psf (17 Oct ‘17)
$935 psf (5 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,139
TERRASSE (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Completed year 2014
$1,459 psf (24 Jul ‘17)
$1, 543 psf (7 Mar ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,543
North / North-East Region (District 19)
[GLS] SERANGOON NORTH AVE 1
Price: $446.2mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,750 - $1,850 psf

17. New Project Launches inYear 2018
North / North-East Region (District 20)
[CS] SHUNFUVILLE (EC)
Price: $688mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,700 - $1,800 psf
BISHAN 8 (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 09/10/1996
SEASONS VIEW (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 06/09/1996
TRESALVEO (CONDO)
Freehold
Completed year 2012
RAFFLESIA (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 18/07/1997
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$1,452 psf (2 Oct ‘17)
$1,537 psf (2 Aug ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,537
$1,052 psf (25 Jul ‘17)
$929 psf (3 Feb ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,052
$1,118 psf (6 Sep ‘17)
$1,028 psf (16 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,161
$1,038 psf (24 Jul ‘17)
$1,089 psf (25 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,091

18. New Project Launches inYear 2018
East Region (District 14)
[CS] EUNOSVILLE (APT)
Price: $765mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,700 - $1,800 psf
WATERBANK AT DAKOTA(CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 07/12/2009
SIMSVILLE (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 01/12/1994
DAKOTA RESIDENCES (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 11/09/2007
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$860 psf (5 Oct ‘17)
$817 psf (26 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $960
$1,478 psf (10 Oct ‘17)
$1,360 psf (12 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,698
$1,310 psf (17 Oct ‘17)
$1,259 psf (17 May ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,423

19. New Project Launches inYear 2018
East Region (District 15)
[CS]THE ALBRACCA (CONDO)
Price: $69.1mil
Estimated Sales Price: $2,500 - $2,600 psf
THE MAKENA (CONDO)
Freehold
Completion Date 1998
THE WATERSIDE (CONDO)
Freehold
Completion Date 1992
WATER PLACE (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 02/03/1998
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$1,493 psf (29 Sep ‘17)
$1,358 psf (17 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,493
$1,663 psf (17 Oct ‘17)
$1,259 psf (9 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,663
$1,159 psf (2 Oct ‘17)
$1,163 psf (26 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,159
PN Project
Fulcum
from $1,845 psf
PN Project
Sims Urban Oasis
from $1,303 psf

20. New Project Launches inYear 2018
East Region (District 18)
[CS]TAMPINES COURT (CONDO)
Price: $970mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,450 - $1,550 psf
MELVILLE PARK (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 01/09/1992
SAVANNAH CONDOPARK (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 29/11/2000
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$733 psf (11Aug ‘17)
$782 psf (26 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $733
$762 psf (26 Sep ‘17)
$602 psf (20 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $762

21. New Project Launches inYear 2018
West Region (District 05)
[CS] 231 PASIR PANJANG
Price: $121mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,700 - $1,800 psf
BLUE HORIZON (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 14/08/2000
THEVISION (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 25/06/2008
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$973 psf (10 Oct ‘17)
$1,032 psf (2 Feb ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,068
$1,097 psf (14Aug ‘17)
$1,165 psf (6 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,284

22. New Project Launches inYear 2018
West Region (District 21)
[GLS]TOHTUCK ROAD
Price: $265mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,750 - $1,850 psf
SOUTHAVEN II (CONDO)
999 years from 21/06/1877
THE RAINTREE (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 01/03-2003
HIGHGATE (CONDO)
Freehold
Completion Date 1995
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$948 psf (25 Sep ‘17)
$981 psf (11 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,140
$958 psf (27 Sep ‘17)
$1,009 psf (18 Apr ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,074$934 psf (20 Sep ‘17)
$929 psf (12 May ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,019
PN Project
The Creek @ Bukit
from $1,421 psf

23. New Project Launches inYear 2018
West Region (District 23)
[CS] JALAN REMAJA
Price: $47.81mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,700 - $1,800 psf
DIARY FARM ESTATE (CONDO)
Freehold
Completion Date 1989
GLENDALE PARK (CONDO)
Freehold
Completion Date 2000
GUILINVIEW (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 24/04/1996
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$1,119 psf (29 Sep ‘17)
$1,041 psf (3 Feb ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,161
$891 psf (28 Aug ‘17)
$954 psf (9 May ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,062
$765 psf (20 Sep ‘17)
$840 psf (3 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $840

24. New Project Launches inYear 2018
Central Region (District 03)
[GLS] MARGARET DRIVE
Price: $238.4mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,850 - $1,950 psf
THE METROPOLITAN(CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 17/02/2006
THE ANCHORAGE (CONDO)
Freehold
Completed year 1997
QUEENS (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 16/02/1998
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$1,234 psf (16 Oct ‘17)
$1,151 psf (20 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,333
$1,316 psf (28 Sep ‘17)
$1,214 psf (20 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,347
$1,184 psf (4 Oct ‘17)
$1,180 psf (11 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,184
Central Region (District 03)
[GLS] STIRLING ROAD
Price: $100.2mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,900 - $2,000 psf

25. New Project Launches inYear 2018
Central Region (District 09)
[CS] 8 HULLET ROAD
Price: $38.2mil
Estimated Sales Price: $2,750 - $2,850 psf
8 @ MOUNT SOPHIA (CONDO)
103-year leasehold
Tenure from 28/11/2002
HILLTOPS (CONDO)
Freehold
Completion Date 2011
HORIZONTOWERS (CONDO)
99-year leasehold
Tenure from 17/08/1979
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$3,102 psf (16 Oct ‘17)
$2,827 psf (12 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $3,691
$1,415 psf (9 Oct ‘17)
$1,357 psf (3 Jan ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,478
$1,123 psf (9 Oct ‘17)
$991 psf (23 Feb ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,123
Central Region (District 09)
[CS] NEW FUTURA
Price: $287.3mil
Estimated Sales Price: $3,200 - $3,500 psf

26. New Project Launches inYear 2018
Central Region (District 12)
[GLS] UPPER SERANGOON ROAD
Price: $1,132mil
Estimated Sales Price: $2,000 - $2,100 psf
BEACON HEIGHTS (CONDO)
999-year leasehold
Tenure from 02/06/1882
VISTA RESIDENCES (CONDO)
Freehold
Completion Date 2013
Source: Google Map, URA (Realis)
$1,106 psf (21 Sep ‘17)
$1,416 psf (30 Aug ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,416
$1,446 psf (11Aug ‘17)
$1,402 psf (8 Mar ‘17)
*Highest PSF: $1,467
Central Region (District 12)
[GLS]WOODLEIGH LANE
Price: $700.7mil
Estimated Sales Price: $1,950 - $2,050 psf

28. Catch MarketTrends
It is the RightTime

29. New ProjectVolume
OCR
RCR
CCR

30. Resale
Volume
OCR
RCR
CCR

31. CCR
ResaleVolume
991
683
498
985
+97%
Q3 2017 vs Q4 2016
Data as at 24 Oct 2017

32. RCR
ResaleVolume
522
617
978
1099
+110%
Q3 2017 vs Q4 2016

33. OCR
ResaleVolume
740
886
1342
1664
+124%
Q3 2017 vs Q4 2016

34. CCR
Price Psf
+5.4%
Q3 2017 vs Q3 2016

35. RCR
Price Psf +6.6%
Q3 2017 vs Q3 2016

36. OCR
Price Psf +4.8%
Q3 2017 vs Q3 2016

38. URA flash estimates show
that the overall price increase
was driven by condominium
and apartment prices in the
suburbs.
Source from E BusinessTimes (011017)

39. Article by SPH media

40. Article by SPH media

41. Source fromThe BusinessTimes (280917)

42. Source fromThe StraitsTimes (290917)

43. Source fromThe BusinessTimes (290917)

44. Article by SPH media

45. Article by SPH media

46. Article by SPH media

47. Article by SPH media

48. Article by SPH media

49. Article by SPH media

50. Article by SPH media

51. Article by SPH media

52. Article by SPH media

53. Source fromThe Straits Times (031017)

54. Article by SPH media

55. Source:The StraitsTimes
(Online) 241017
Latest En Bloc News!
• The site can yield up to 80 units
in a new development.
• Current Cairnhill Mansions site
can accommodate up to 228
new apartments.
• The guide price for Cairnhill
Mansions is S$362 million,
which works out to S$2,101 psf
ppr.

56. Source:The StraitsTimes
(Online) 231017
Latest En Bloc News!

57. Positive Sentiments
in the Market today

58. Price Trend in Various Regions ($ PSF)
Region 2015 / 2016 2016 / 2017 Expected 2018
Core Central Region $2,000 $2,200 - $2,500 $2,500 - $3,000
Rest of Core Central $1,500 $1,550 - $1,700 $1,700 - $1,900
Outside of Core
Central
$1,000 $1,150 - $1,300 $1,400 - $1,500
Executive
Condominium
$750 $800 - $830 $830 - $880
DBSS $550 $550 $550
HDB Resale $400 $400 $400
BTO $250 $250 $250

59. Source: The Business Times (18072017)

60. Source: TODAY paper (25072017)

61. Source: The Straits Times (18072017)

62. Source: The Business Times (20022017)

63. Source: The Business Times (2702017)

64. Source: The Straits Times (2702017)

65. Source: The Business Times 24042017

66. Source: The Business Times (16032017)

67. Source: The Straits Times Online (1203017)

68. What does this signal for
the property market today?

69. PRIVATE PROPERTY:
Industry Updates

70. PIPELINE OF SUPPLY OF PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL UNITS
Source: URA

71. IMPROVED HOME AFFORDABILITY

72. Growing Population
Article by SPH media

73. Average population increase by 100,000 per/annum
Article by SPH media

74. Source: URA

75. Source: URA

76. Source: The Business Times 04072017

77. Let’s look at the:
Private Residential Statistics
Trends & Figures.
As of 2Q 2017
results released by
URA on 28 July 2017

78. PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL MARKET AT A GLANCE
3Q 2017:
137.7 (0.5%)
Flash Estimate
Source: URA (Published 011017)

79. YEAR PRICE INDEX OVERALL %
2007 122.1 + 28
2008 116.4 - 4.5
2009 118.4 + 4.2
2010 139.2 + 16.6
2011 147.4 + 5.8
2012 151.5 + 2.8
2013 153.2 - 1.1
2014 147.0 - 4.1
2015 141.6 - 3.7
2016 137.2 - 3.1
PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PRICES
Y-O-Y (2007 – 2016)
Source: URA

80. PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PRICES
(Q-on-Q)
YEAR PRICE INDEX OVERALL %
Q1 2016 140.6 -0.7%
Q2 2016 140.0 -0.4%
Q32016 137.9 -1.5%
Q42016 137.2 -0.5%
2016 overall -3.1%
Q12017 136.7 -0.4%
Q2 2017 136.6 -0.1%
Q3 2017 137.7 +0.5%
Source: URA
+0.5%Flash Estimate

81. OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL
PRICE INDEX (2014 – 1Q2017 REGIONS)
Quarter CCR RCR OCR
1Q14
136.2(-1)
149.7 (-3.3) 169.1 (-0.1)
2Q14 134.2 (-1.5) 149.2 (-0.3) 167.6 (-0.9)
3Q14 133.1 (-0.8) 148.6 (-0.4) 167 (-0.4)
4Q14 131.9 (- 0.9) - 4.2 146.6 (- 1.3) - 5.3 165.6(- 0.8) - 2.2
1Q15 131.4 (- 0.4) 144.1 (-1.7) 163.8 (-1.1)
2Q15 130.6 (-0.6) 143.2 (-0.6) 162.0 (-1.1)
3Q15 129.0 (-1.2) 140.9 (-1.6) 159.4 (-1.6)
4Q15 128.6 (- 0.3) - 2.5 140.3 (-0.4) - 4.3 159.4 (0) - 3.8
1Q16 129.0 (0.3) 140.3 (0) 157.3 (-1.3)
2Q16 129.4(0.3) 140.6 (0.2) 156.5 (-0.5)
3Q16 126.9 (-1.9) 139.2 (-1.0) 154.9 (-1.0)
4Q16 127 (0.1) -1.2% 136.4 (-2.0) -2.8% 154.0 (-0.6) -3.4%
1Q17 126.5 (-0.4) 136.8 (0.3) 154.2 (0.1)
2Q17 125.9 (-0.5) 137.6 (0.6) 153.7 (-0.3)
3Q17 126.15 (0.2) 137.6 (0.6) 154.78 (0.7)
Source: URA, PropNex Research
Flash Estimate

82. OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL PRICE INDEX
2016 – 1Q 2017 BY REGIONS
Quarter CCR RCR OCR
1Q 2016 0.3% 0% -1.3%
2Q 2016 0.3% 0.2% -0.5%
3Q 2016 -1.9% -1.0% -1.0%
4Q 2016 0.1% -2.0% -0.6%
2016 Overall -1.2% -2.8% -3.4%
1Q2017 -0.4% 0.3 0.1
2Q 2017 -0.5 0.6 -0.3
3Q 2017 0.2% 0.6% 0.7%
Source: URA, PropNex Research
Flash Estimate

83. PERIOD
Uncompleted properties
Completed
properties
Total
CCR RCR OCR
2012 Total
1,761 4,030 16,064 342 21,855
2013 Total
1,952 4,468 8,337 191 14,757
2014 Total
755 2,386 3,969 206 7,110
2015 Total
232 1,812 5,102 294 7,146
2016 Total 524 2280 4585 583 7389
OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS BY REGION
(NEW LAUNCHES) Year on Year
Source: URA, PropNex Research

84. PERIOD
Uncompleted properties
Completed
properties
Total
CCR RCR OCR
1Q 2016
221 309 829 60 1,359
2Q 2016
118 983 984 171 2,085
3Q 2016
105 423 1,281 172 1,809
4Q 2016
80 565 1491 180 2136
TOTAL OVERALL 2016
7389
1Q 2017
89 817 1713 343 2619
2Q 2017
125 999 1442 511 2566
TOTAL AS OF 2Q 2017 5185
OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS BY REGION
(NEW LAUNCHES) By Quarters
Source: URA, PropNex Research

85. 2013 2014 2015 2016 As of 2Q 2017
New Sale 14948 7316 7440 7972 6039
Subsale 1055 567 517 505 200
Resale 6624 4966 6160 7901 5868
TOTAL 22654 12849 14117 16378 12,107
OVERALL PRIVATE RESIDENTIAL TRANSACTIONS
WHOLE SINGAPORE
Source: URA, PropNex Research

86. In Summary:
2Q 2017 URA Statistics
Prices of private homes in Singapore fell 0.1 per cent
quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q), the lowest dip since prices
started to decline in Q4 2013
With aggressive land bids and the positive sentiment we
expect prices to grow positively by next year, transactions
to cross 21,000 mark