The document discusses challenges with the traditional venture capital model and risks of long term investments. It notes that many formerly venture backed companies like Pepsi, General Mills, and Kraft saw stock price increases of 2x to 10x within a few years. However, it also acknowledges the risks of investments, citing statistics on cell division errors leading to cancer and how most major accomplishments were initially deemed impossible. The document advocates exploring alternatives to the traditional venture capital model.

1. Off the Venture Map Paul Kedrosky October 12, 2006

2. Maps

6. Hic sunt dracones

12. Limits

13. 10 16 Each cell division represents an opportunity for disaster , for chaos to occur . The longer-lived the organism, the more likely it is that one cell eventually will lose the ability to collaborate with its neighbors in maintaining structure and function, and just start multiplying uncontrollably . -- Robert Weinberg, MIT

14. Julian Simon, 1932 - 1998

15. “ The traditional venture model seems to us to be broken.” - Steve Dow, Sevin Rosen Funds (NY Times, 10/7/2006)

18. Media

20. $145-billion 11% 1.6%

21. Pepsi: 10x in 5 years (to 10%) General Mills: 2x in 1 year Kraft: 2x in 1 year Anheuser-Busch: 2x in 1 year (to 5%)

22. Source: TNS Media-Intelligence

25. Water

27. 500% increase over 10 years Fixed supply, exploding demand 20% have running water China’s per capita reserves: ¼ average

28. Source: Summit Global

29. Risks

31. Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done. - Louis Brandeis

33. Source: “Success and death on Everest,” American Alpine Journal (2003) 3.4% vs. 1.8%

34. Here there be dragons

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