The document provides information on the Canterbury earthquake rebuild in New Zealand including:
- The total rebuild cost is estimated at $35 billion NZD, with half for residential and half for non-residential construction.
- Rebuild activity is expected to peak in 2015-2016 and continue through 2017 for residential and to 2020 for non-residential.
- Residential construction is shifting to rebuilding the approximately 24,000 homes damaged over $100,000 and some new builds.
- Infrastructure and public building spending will remain elevated from 2015 through 2016.
- Commercial construction consents doubled in 2014 and further increases are expected with rebuilding and improvements.
- Labour and construction costs have risen significantly since
Three potential locations for SkiAustin were identified within 12 miles of Austin, with land prices up to $2.5 million. Electricity and water costs were analyzed, with electricity from solar panels estimated to generate 740,950 kWh annually. Technology needs like snow guns, groomers, and lifts from suppliers like TechnoAlpin, PistenBully, and Leitner-Poma were reviewed. Market research through surveys found both in-state and destination skiers would visit.
New Zealand English developed from the English brought by British settlers in the 19th century. It has been influenced by the indigenous Maori language and Australian English. Today it is the primary language of New Zealand, spoken by over 95% of the population. New Zealand English is non-rhotic and has distinctive vowels compared to other English accents. It also contains some unique grammatical constructions and vocabulary adopted from Maori and other Polynesian languages. Well known promoters of New Zealand English include singers who perform with the accent as well as playwrights who address New Zealand topics and issues.
New Zealand consists of two main islands and smaller surrounding islands located southeast of Australia. It has a population of around 3.8 million people and its capital and largest city is Wellington. Some key facts about New Zealand include its colonial history reflected in the flag, the indigenous Maori people making up about 14% of the population, and famous attractions including geysers in Rotorua and the kiwi bird which is the national emblem. New Zealand is also known for its rugby team the All Blacks and for extreme sports like bungee jumping.
The document provides an overview of New Zealand, covering its facts, history, economy, education system, geography, climate, flora and fauna, arts, food, sports, and film industry in 3 sentences or less per topic. It discusses New Zealand's location in the South Pacific, history of Maori settlement and later European colonization, market economy dependent on international trade, education system with primary, secondary and tertiary levels, varied landscape formed by tectonic activity, native and endemic plants and animals, cultural arts influenced by Maori and European traditions, cuisine blending influences, rugby as the dominant sport, and success in producing adventure films.
New Zealand's national bird is the kiwi. Kiwis are flightless birds found only in New Zealand. They have thick brown or grey feathers, short powerful legs, a long bill used for finding food, and keen senses of smell and hearing. Despite their inability to fly, kiwis can run at speeds up to 30 kph. Kiwis play an important role in New Zealand's identity and ecosystem. There are five surviving species of kiwi that are threatened by habitat loss and predators. Conservation efforts aim to protect and increase kiwi populations.
New Zealand consists of two main islands, North Island and South Island, separated by Cook Strait. Wellington is the capital city located on North Island. The population is over 4.4 million people, including the indigenous Maori people who make up about 16.5% of the population. Maori culture includes traditional performances like haka, poi dances and waiata-a-ringa action songs. British colonization in 1840 led to conflicts over land and culture with the native Maori population. Major cities include Auckland, the largest city, and Wellington, the capital, as well as Christchurch on the South Island.
The Maori are the indigenous people of New Zealand, making up around 15% of the country's population today. They arrived in New Zealand from eastern Polynesia around 1200 AD. Before European settlement, the Maori lived throughout New Zealand. In the late 18th century, British colonists began arriving and conflicts arose between the Maori and European settlers in the 1800s. While some Maori lands were confiscated, the population has since rebounded and Maori culture remains an important part of New Zealand's national identity.
This document discusses initiatives in New Zealand to increase productivity in the building and construction sector through greater adoption of Building Information Modeling (BIM). It outlines the Productivity Partnership established between industry and government to address low productivity. Key initiatives discussed include developing BIM guidelines and training for practitioners, establishing procurement forums, and aligning projects in Canterbury through a forward works spatial coordination project. The document argues that increased use of BIM, along with these coordination efforts, can help improve consistency, reduce costs and delays, and support the rebuilding efforts in Canterbury.
Three potential locations for SkiAustin were identified within 12 miles of Austin, with land prices up to $2.5 million. Electricity and water costs were analyzed, with electricity from solar panels estimated to generate 740,950 kWh annually. Technology needs like snow guns, groomers, and lifts from suppliers like TechnoAlpin, PistenBully, and Leitner-Poma were reviewed. Market research through surveys found both in-state and destination skiers would visit.
New Zealand English developed from the English brought by British settlers in the 19th century. It has been influenced by the indigenous Maori language and Australian English. Today it is the primary language of New Zealand, spoken by over 95% of the population. New Zealand English is non-rhotic and has distinctive vowels compared to other English accents. It also contains some unique grammatical constructions and vocabulary adopted from Maori and other Polynesian languages. Well known promoters of New Zealand English include singers who perform with the accent as well as playwrights who address New Zealand topics and issues.
New Zealand consists of two main islands and smaller surrounding islands located southeast of Australia. It has a population of around 3.8 million people and its capital and largest city is Wellington. Some key facts about New Zealand include its colonial history reflected in the flag, the indigenous Maori people making up about 14% of the population, and famous attractions including geysers in Rotorua and the kiwi bird which is the national emblem. New Zealand is also known for its rugby team the All Blacks and for extreme sports like bungee jumping.
The document provides an overview of New Zealand, covering its facts, history, economy, education system, geography, climate, flora and fauna, arts, food, sports, and film industry in 3 sentences or less per topic. It discusses New Zealand's location in the South Pacific, history of Maori settlement and later European colonization, market economy dependent on international trade, education system with primary, secondary and tertiary levels, varied landscape formed by tectonic activity, native and endemic plants and animals, cultural arts influenced by Maori and European traditions, cuisine blending influences, rugby as the dominant sport, and success in producing adventure films.
New Zealand's national bird is the kiwi. Kiwis are flightless birds found only in New Zealand. They have thick brown or grey feathers, short powerful legs, a long bill used for finding food, and keen senses of smell and hearing. Despite their inability to fly, kiwis can run at speeds up to 30 kph. Kiwis play an important role in New Zealand's identity and ecosystem. There are five surviving species of kiwi that are threatened by habitat loss and predators. Conservation efforts aim to protect and increase kiwi populations.
New Zealand consists of two main islands, North Island and South Island, separated by Cook Strait. Wellington is the capital city located on North Island. The population is over 4.4 million people, including the indigenous Maori people who make up about 16.5% of the population. Maori culture includes traditional performances like haka, poi dances and waiata-a-ringa action songs. British colonization in 1840 led to conflicts over land and culture with the native Maori population. Major cities include Auckland, the largest city, and Wellington, the capital, as well as Christchurch on the South Island.
The Maori are the indigenous people of New Zealand, making up around 15% of the country's population today. They arrived in New Zealand from eastern Polynesia around 1200 AD. Before European settlement, the Maori lived throughout New Zealand. In the late 18th century, British colonists began arriving and conflicts arose between the Maori and European settlers in the 1800s. While some Maori lands were confiscated, the population has since rebounded and Maori culture remains an important part of New Zealand's national identity.
This document discusses initiatives in New Zealand to increase productivity in the building and construction sector through greater adoption of Building Information Modeling (BIM). It outlines the Productivity Partnership established between industry and government to address low productivity. Key initiatives discussed include developing BIM guidelines and training for practitioners, establishing procurement forums, and aligning projects in Canterbury through a forward works spatial coordination project. The document argues that increased use of BIM, along with these coordination efforts, can help improve consistency, reduce costs and delays, and support the rebuilding efforts in Canterbury.
Housing in Ireland: From Crisis to Crisisrobkitchin
This paper provides a macro analysis of Irish housing since 1991 and makes the argument that it has been perpetually in crisis and that we need to find a way to treat housing as a sector, not simply a market, and to create stability that will mitigate against boom/bust cycles.
Municipal Budgets, Capital Improvements Planning & Public FundingShaun Wilson
This document summarizes a presentation on municipal budgeting and capital improvements planning. It discusses typical budget cycles and how they differ from public funding opportunities. Capital improvements are defined as investments over $5,000 with a lifespan over 3 years. The presentation recommends developing a 5-year capital plan through a committee process. It provides a case study of Viroqua, WI's plan, which prioritizes projects, estimates costs, and identifies funding sources like utility funds, borrowing, and grants to maintain affordable rates.
Funding our future community information session nov 2013maitlandyoursay
Council is facing a $92 million funding shortfall over the next 10 years due to rising costs and stagnant revenue growth. A 7-year special rate variation is proposed to address this by gradually increasing rates higher than the rate peg. This would allow services to be delivered as programmed and some to be enhanced. The proposal shifts more of the rate burden from businesses and farms to residents. It is estimated to increase average residential rates by $115-179 per year. Alternatives and next steps are outlined for community feedback before Council decides whether to apply to IPART.
Merseyside Development Update: Mark Kitts, Liverpool City CouncilPlace North West
This document provides an update on transformational regeneration projects in North Liverpool, including their progress, achievements, and estimated value. Over £800 million worth of schemes have been completed or are currently on site, creating over 1,200 permanent jobs and building more than 2,200 new homes. Major ongoing and upcoming projects include Liverpool Waters, Ten Streets, Stanley Park, Anfield Village, and improvements to the Liverpool World Heritage Site buffer zone.
Ontario construction labour assessment 2012 2020Shawna Henderson
This document provides an assessment of construction labour markets in Ontario from 2012 to 2020. It finds that construction employment is expected to increase by 44,000 workers over this period, with most growth concentrated in the Greater Toronto Area. Key challenges include replacing the estimated 77,000 construction workers who will retire and attracting additional workers to meet expansion demand requirements. Labour market rankings are expected to tighten periodically during peak periods of major project activity in different regions of the province.
Roger Sutton CEO, CERA - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014SmartNet
Roger Sutton CEO, CERA - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014
Building Momentum
Local and central government, business and media perspectives on the Canterbury Recovery and Rebuild.
What is your take on where we are with the rebuild?
What are positive signs of progress and what's in the pipeline?
What are the main obstacles and how can they be resolved?
This document provides an economic forecast and construction industry trends for the American Society of Professional Estimators annual meeting. It summarizes national construction spending trends from 2005-2013 and forecasts continued growth in 2014. It also reviews construction starts, housing permits, employment, and real estate trends in California and the Bay Area, indicating growth in residential and commercial construction through 2017. Public works construction is expected to remain slow due to funding issues but improve as transportation bills are passed.
The document summarizes a presentation given in 2015 on investment opportunities and challenges in Mongolia. It notes that while progress had been made in meeting investment needs, challenges remained including fiscal policy, infrastructure development, and laws governing mining and investment. Major projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi presented both opportunities and risks. Overall the outlook was that continued investment, especially in mining and infrastructure, could help Mongolia benefit from its natural resources despite slowing growth in China.
The document summarizes key points about the Triennial Review of the Research Councils and the upcoming Spending Review. It notes that the Triennial Review will examine the core functions and governance structure of the Research Councils. It also reports that further budget cuts are expected in the Spending Review, which would exacerbate the loss of purchasing power from years of flat cash funding for research. Stakeholder input will be important for both processes.
Funding our future community presentation 21012014 fina_lpptxmaitlandyoursay
The document summarizes a community presentation about revising Maitland City Council's Delivery Program. It outlines that a special rate variation is needed due to a projected $92 million funding shortfall. Community consultation showed support for maintaining services. The revised Delivery Program focuses on infrastructure like roads, footpaths, and sporting facilities. It was developed through extensive community and stakeholder engagement. The Operational Plan and budget for 2014-15 were incorporated to implement the Delivery Program.
The panel discussion focused on village development trends, fiscal impacts, and case studies. Jon Reiner introduced concepts like historic villages, compact development, and transfer of development rights. Linda Painter discussed Storrs Center in Connecticut, a public-private partnership featuring retail, residential, and infrastructure development. Lori Massa and Wig Zamore presented on Assembly Row in Somerville, Massachusetts, which generated tax revenue and diversified the tax base through mixed-use development. Peter Flinker analyzed village economics and how different development patterns affected costs, preserved land, and roads. The panel examined real market analyses and fiscal impacts to inform village planning decisions.
This document provides an overview and summary of construction costs in Canada for 2017. It includes information on economic trends, housing starts, capitalization rates for major real estate asset classes, and average construction costs for various building types across Canadian regions. The document is intended to serve as a guide for construction cost estimating and benchmarking. It provides high-level context on Canadian economic conditions and cost benchmarks while noting that more specific analysis is required for accurate project cost forecasts.
This document discusses earthquake strengthening from the perspective of the Property Council of New Zealand. It summarizes the Property Council's position on government actions around earthquake strengthening requirements between 2012-2015. It also discusses the challenges commercial property owners face regarding deciding whether to strengthen buildings and pay the substantial costs involved, and the debate around strengthening heritage buildings.
The document provides details on the FY 2017 budget kickoff meeting, including the city council budget schedule, administrative budget preparation process, and highlights of the long range financial forecast. Key points include capital funds being virtually exhausted, no increases planned for water and sewer rates, and the operating budget for Island Transit facing challenges that may require funding from the Convention Center Surplus Fund.
The presentation provided an economic forecast for the construction industry in 2015. It predicted total US construction spending to increase 9% and highlighted gains in multiple sectors such as single family housing up 15% and commercial buildings up 15%. The forecast also noted continued growth in California, with housing starts projected to increase significantly through 2018. In the local area, forecasts pointed to declines in office and industrial vacancy rates with continued residential and commercial development. Overall, the projections portrayed an optimistic outlook for the construction industry in 2015 with many sectors expected to see substantial gains over the prior year.
This is a copy of a presentation I made to the local chapter of NAWIC. It has a lot great information about the national, state and local Construction Economy
The document describes the development of a Triple Bottom Line Calculator tool to help cities evaluate capital investments. The tool calculates the economic, environmental, and social benefits of investments in areas like energy efficiency, renewable energy, transportation, and development. By inputting details of a project, the calculator can estimate outcomes such as energy savings, cost-benefit ratios, and payback periods to help cities strategically direct investments and justify decisions. The tool was created through a partnership between several cities to provide a standardized way to assess all types of benefits from capital expenditures.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
On the 16th February ONS released an update estimating that the Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) turnover and employment estimates are both at their highest level since the first comparable figures in 2015. This is an exciting development from an environmental economics perspective, as it seems to demonstrate growth well above average when compared to the UK economy as a whole.
These estimates were generated by the LCREE business survey which is run by ONS’ Environment Division on an annual basis. The survey goes out to ~25,000 businesses each year asking questions on economic performance within 17 predefined low carbon and renewable energy sectors.
This webinar explored key trends from this exciting 2021 iteration of the survey. In addition development plans were presented, including the potential links to ongoing Green Jobs development work, in particular the potential to explore additional regional estimates.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk
Council will face a $92 million funding shortfall over the next 10 years due to rising costs and slower revenue growth. It is consulting the community on two options to address this - a 7.25% annual rates increase for seven years to maintain current services, or an 8.95% increase to enhance some services. Feedback is sought on preferred services and willingness to pay more rates through an online survey closing October 4. The preferred option will be developed and released for further input before a rate increase application is submitted.
Housing in Ireland: From Crisis to Crisisrobkitchin
This paper provides a macro analysis of Irish housing since 1991 and makes the argument that it has been perpetually in crisis and that we need to find a way to treat housing as a sector, not simply a market, and to create stability that will mitigate against boom/bust cycles.
Municipal Budgets, Capital Improvements Planning & Public FundingShaun Wilson
This document summarizes a presentation on municipal budgeting and capital improvements planning. It discusses typical budget cycles and how they differ from public funding opportunities. Capital improvements are defined as investments over $5,000 with a lifespan over 3 years. The presentation recommends developing a 5-year capital plan through a committee process. It provides a case study of Viroqua, WI's plan, which prioritizes projects, estimates costs, and identifies funding sources like utility funds, borrowing, and grants to maintain affordable rates.
Funding our future community information session nov 2013maitlandyoursay
Council is facing a $92 million funding shortfall over the next 10 years due to rising costs and stagnant revenue growth. A 7-year special rate variation is proposed to address this by gradually increasing rates higher than the rate peg. This would allow services to be delivered as programmed and some to be enhanced. The proposal shifts more of the rate burden from businesses and farms to residents. It is estimated to increase average residential rates by $115-179 per year. Alternatives and next steps are outlined for community feedback before Council decides whether to apply to IPART.
Merseyside Development Update: Mark Kitts, Liverpool City CouncilPlace North West
This document provides an update on transformational regeneration projects in North Liverpool, including their progress, achievements, and estimated value. Over £800 million worth of schemes have been completed or are currently on site, creating over 1,200 permanent jobs and building more than 2,200 new homes. Major ongoing and upcoming projects include Liverpool Waters, Ten Streets, Stanley Park, Anfield Village, and improvements to the Liverpool World Heritage Site buffer zone.
Ontario construction labour assessment 2012 2020Shawna Henderson
This document provides an assessment of construction labour markets in Ontario from 2012 to 2020. It finds that construction employment is expected to increase by 44,000 workers over this period, with most growth concentrated in the Greater Toronto Area. Key challenges include replacing the estimated 77,000 construction workers who will retire and attracting additional workers to meet expansion demand requirements. Labour market rankings are expected to tighten periodically during peak periods of major project activity in different regions of the province.
Roger Sutton CEO, CERA - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014SmartNet
Roger Sutton CEO, CERA - speaking at Seismics and the City 2014
Building Momentum
Local and central government, business and media perspectives on the Canterbury Recovery and Rebuild.
What is your take on where we are with the rebuild?
What are positive signs of progress and what's in the pipeline?
What are the main obstacles and how can they be resolved?
This document provides an economic forecast and construction industry trends for the American Society of Professional Estimators annual meeting. It summarizes national construction spending trends from 2005-2013 and forecasts continued growth in 2014. It also reviews construction starts, housing permits, employment, and real estate trends in California and the Bay Area, indicating growth in residential and commercial construction through 2017. Public works construction is expected to remain slow due to funding issues but improve as transportation bills are passed.
The document summarizes a presentation given in 2015 on investment opportunities and challenges in Mongolia. It notes that while progress had been made in meeting investment needs, challenges remained including fiscal policy, infrastructure development, and laws governing mining and investment. Major projects like Oyu Tolgoi and Tavan Tolgoi presented both opportunities and risks. Overall the outlook was that continued investment, especially in mining and infrastructure, could help Mongolia benefit from its natural resources despite slowing growth in China.
The document summarizes key points about the Triennial Review of the Research Councils and the upcoming Spending Review. It notes that the Triennial Review will examine the core functions and governance structure of the Research Councils. It also reports that further budget cuts are expected in the Spending Review, which would exacerbate the loss of purchasing power from years of flat cash funding for research. Stakeholder input will be important for both processes.
Funding our future community presentation 21012014 fina_lpptxmaitlandyoursay
The document summarizes a community presentation about revising Maitland City Council's Delivery Program. It outlines that a special rate variation is needed due to a projected $92 million funding shortfall. Community consultation showed support for maintaining services. The revised Delivery Program focuses on infrastructure like roads, footpaths, and sporting facilities. It was developed through extensive community and stakeholder engagement. The Operational Plan and budget for 2014-15 were incorporated to implement the Delivery Program.
The panel discussion focused on village development trends, fiscal impacts, and case studies. Jon Reiner introduced concepts like historic villages, compact development, and transfer of development rights. Linda Painter discussed Storrs Center in Connecticut, a public-private partnership featuring retail, residential, and infrastructure development. Lori Massa and Wig Zamore presented on Assembly Row in Somerville, Massachusetts, which generated tax revenue and diversified the tax base through mixed-use development. Peter Flinker analyzed village economics and how different development patterns affected costs, preserved land, and roads. The panel examined real market analyses and fiscal impacts to inform village planning decisions.
This document provides an overview and summary of construction costs in Canada for 2017. It includes information on economic trends, housing starts, capitalization rates for major real estate asset classes, and average construction costs for various building types across Canadian regions. The document is intended to serve as a guide for construction cost estimating and benchmarking. It provides high-level context on Canadian economic conditions and cost benchmarks while noting that more specific analysis is required for accurate project cost forecasts.
This document discusses earthquake strengthening from the perspective of the Property Council of New Zealand. It summarizes the Property Council's position on government actions around earthquake strengthening requirements between 2012-2015. It also discusses the challenges commercial property owners face regarding deciding whether to strengthen buildings and pay the substantial costs involved, and the debate around strengthening heritage buildings.
The document provides details on the FY 2017 budget kickoff meeting, including the city council budget schedule, administrative budget preparation process, and highlights of the long range financial forecast. Key points include capital funds being virtually exhausted, no increases planned for water and sewer rates, and the operating budget for Island Transit facing challenges that may require funding from the Convention Center Surplus Fund.
The presentation provided an economic forecast for the construction industry in 2015. It predicted total US construction spending to increase 9% and highlighted gains in multiple sectors such as single family housing up 15% and commercial buildings up 15%. The forecast also noted continued growth in California, with housing starts projected to increase significantly through 2018. In the local area, forecasts pointed to declines in office and industrial vacancy rates with continued residential and commercial development. Overall, the projections portrayed an optimistic outlook for the construction industry in 2015 with many sectors expected to see substantial gains over the prior year.
This is a copy of a presentation I made to the local chapter of NAWIC. It has a lot great information about the national, state and local Construction Economy
The document describes the development of a Triple Bottom Line Calculator tool to help cities evaluate capital investments. The tool calculates the economic, environmental, and social benefits of investments in areas like energy efficiency, renewable energy, transportation, and development. By inputting details of a project, the calculator can estimate outcomes such as energy savings, cost-benefit ratios, and payback periods to help cities strategically direct investments and justify decisions. The tool was created through a partnership between several cities to provide a standardized way to assess all types of benefits from capital expenditures.
ONS Local has been established by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) to support evidence-based decision-making at the local level. We aim to host insightful events that connect our users with exciting developments happening in subnational statistics and analysis at the ONS and across other organisations.
On the 16th February ONS released an update estimating that the Low Carbon and Renewable Energy Economy (LCREE) turnover and employment estimates are both at their highest level since the first comparable figures in 2015. This is an exciting development from an environmental economics perspective, as it seems to demonstrate growth well above average when compared to the UK economy as a whole.
These estimates were generated by the LCREE business survey which is run by ONS’ Environment Division on an annual basis. The survey goes out to ~25,000 businesses each year asking questions on economic performance within 17 predefined low carbon and renewable energy sectors.
This webinar explored key trends from this exciting 2021 iteration of the survey. In addition development plans were presented, including the potential links to ongoing Green Jobs development work, in particular the potential to explore additional regional estimates.
If you have any questions, please contact ons.local@ons.gov.uk
Council will face a $92 million funding shortfall over the next 10 years due to rising costs and slower revenue growth. It is consulting the community on two options to address this - a 7.25% annual rates increase for seven years to maintain current services, or an 8.95% increase to enhance some services. Feedback is sought on preferred services and willingness to pay more rates through an online survey closing October 4. The preferred option will be developed and released for further input before a rate increase application is submitted.
Similar to New Zealand Economic Update - Construction March 2015 (20)
When listening about building new Ventures, Marketplaces ideas are something very frequent. On this session we will discuss reasons why you should stay away from it :P , by sharing real stories and misconceptions around them. If you still insist to go for it however, you will at least get an idea of the important and critical strategies to optimize for success like Product, Business Development & Marketing, Operations :)
Reflect Festival Limassol May 2024.
Michael Economou is an Entrepreneur, with Business & Technology foundations and a passion for Innovation. He is working with his team to launch a new venture – Exyde, an AI powered booking platform for Activities & Experiences, aspiring to revolutionize the way we travel and experience the world. Michael has extensive entrepreneurial experience as the co-founder of Ideas2life, AtYourService as well as Foody, an online delivery platform and one of the most prominent ventures in Cyprus’ digital landscape, acquired by Delivery Hero group in 2019. This journey & experience marks a vast expertise in building and scaling marketplaces, enhancing everyday life through technology and making meaningful impact on local communities, which is what Michael and his team are pursuing doing once more with Exyde www.goExyde.com
2. Canterbury earthquake response – key questions
1. How big is the rebuild expected to be? • $35 bn in 2012 dollars (15% of annual
national GDP)
2. How long do we expect activity to
continue?
• Peak in 2015/16, long tail for
non-residential activity
3. What is the profile for activity? • Construction has increased, further
increases expected over the coming year
• Construction to remain elevated through
to 2017
• Shift towards higher value residential
construction, increases in non-residential
spending
4. What are some of the key challenges? • Costs of construction
• Availability of labour
• Prices and rents
• Duration of demand
3. How big is the rebuild expected to be?
• Westpac estimate: $35 bn (2012 dollars,
i.e. excluding cost increases)
• Lower estimate than government
• Cost increases will make some
planned spending uneconomic,
especially in the commercial sphere
• Spending will still occur, but at a
later date (BAU vs. rebuild)
• Around half of spend is residential, half
non-residential (breakdown over page).
Reconstruction profile
Westpac forecasts
4. How big is the rebuild expected to be?
$bn
(2012 dollars)
Estimated spend to date
(% complete)
Comment
Residential Land
Westpac’s assumption
$5 Assumed $1 to $3 bil
(20 to 60%)
• As of January EQC had completed around 77% of land settlements.
Some of this will relate to cash settlements.
Repairs (properties with damage
less than $100k)
Source: EQC/Fletchers
$2.5 $2.2
+ Privately funded repairs
(95%)
• Around 69,000 properties in the repair program.
• As of 23 January, Fletchers EQR had completed 64,802 repairs.
• Completion targeted in early 2015.
Rebuilds/major repairs
(damage over $100k, funded
privately or through insurance)
Source: ICNZ and Westpac
estimates
$7 to $10 Insurers: $1.1 bil
+ Private: Around $1 bil
(10 to 20%)
• Around 24,000 properties, many are likely to be rebuilt to higher than
pre-quake standard. There will also be a number of new builds.
• As of 1 Jan 15: 2,890 homes fully rebuilt by insurers, work on
another 1,744 homes was underway and 5,700 in pre-construction.
TOTAL RESIDENTIAL $14.5 to $17.5 $5 to 7 bil
Non-residential Public and infrastructure
SCIRT (Horizontal)
Source: CERA/SCIRT
>$2.5 Around $1.6 bil
(65%)
• At the 12 February 2015 around 65% of the total SCRIT program
was complete
• Targeted completion at end of 2016.
Other including councils
and community assets
Source: CERA/CCDU
$7.5 to $8.5 $0.9 to 1.1 bil
(~13%)
• Design and construction has begun on a number of projects.
• Spending to remain elevated over 2015/16.
Commercial
Westpac’s assumption based on
insurance payouts
Around $7.5 to
$10
$1.3 to 2 bil
(around 20%)
• Includes replacement of damaged assets, and significant betterment,
excludes costs acceleration
• $8 bil in commercial claims paid (current dollars)
TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL $17.5 to $21 $4 to 5 bil
TOTAL
Around $35
$9 to 12 bil
(around 30%)
5. How long do we expect activity to continue?
• Total rebuild spending projected to peak over 2015/2016, 80% completion around
2018.
• Residential construction has been increasing strongly
• Peak projected over 2015/16, 80% completion by end of 2017
• Completion around 2020
• SCIRT (horizontal infrastructure) peak spend of around $40 mil month, completion
in 2016 targeted,
• Public/social asset spending ramping up now, planned spending to remain at high
level through 2015 and 2016 before tapering off through to 2020
• Commercial spending ramping up more gradually, projected peak over 2016/2017,
long tail
6. Profile of activity - Residential
• Work to date has predominantly related
to EQC’s repair program. The vast
majority of spending in this program will
be complete in early-2015.
• Residential construction is shifting
towards full-rebuilds/overcap repairs
(around 24,000 homes), plus some new
builds
• Current consent issuance consistent
with around 7000 new homes a year
(around 21,000 new homes between
2015 and 2017)
• Questions around strength of activity
further ahead, and how many new
builds/medium-density projects will be
required
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Number$m
Number (RHS)
Value
Source: Statistics NZ, Westpac
Sept
2010
Residential consents
(annual totals)
7. Profile of activity – Infrastructure and public
• Spending to rise over 2015, remaining elevated though 2016, tail out to ~2020.
• CERA - $1.1 to 1.2 bn (e.g. Metro sports, stadium, convention centre)
• Councils - around $1.1 to 1.2 bn (e.g. art gallery, library)
• Education (Ministry of Education and tertiary providers) - $2.1 to 2.4 bn
• Lyttelton Port - around $1 bn
• Also health, justice, roading
Public sector construction profile (Source: CERA, MBIE)
8. Profile of activity - Commercial
• Around $800 mil of work was consented
in 2014 (roughly double the pre-quake
level), with a significant increase
expected over the coming year
• Extended period of strong activity
• Betterment of assets occurring
• Questions around timing of spending vs
cost (economics of investment
decisions)
• Rents
• Building size
• Cost increases
• When will spending occur? Is it rebuild
or BAU?
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Number
$m
Floor area (RHS)
Value
Source: Statistics NZ, Westpac
Sept
2010
Non-residential consents
(annual totals)
9. Labour market
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
%%
Canterbury
Auckland
NZ
Source: Statistics NZ, Westpac
Sept 2010
• Unemployment in Canterbury is 3.5%,
not far from pre-recession levels
• Net immigration an important source of
labour
• Increases in construction and economic
activity more generally will absorb spare
capacity
• Increasing construction activity in other
regions, especially Auckland, will result
in increased competition for resources
• Between Dec 2011 and Dec 2014 base
rates for construction labour rose 10%
in Canterbury vs. 6% in the rest of NZ
Unemployment by region
12. House prices and rents in Christchurch (s.a.)
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
Index
Index
House prices
Rents
Sept
20102012 2013 2014
House prices 11.8 7.1 3.7
Rents 16.4 8.9 1.7
Source: Statistics NZ, MBIE, Westpac
Year to Dec % change
13. Population growth and housing demand
• Most of the damaged housing stock forecast to be repaired or replaced by end of
2017.
• Rebuild estimates also include new builds.
• Stats NZ projections imply growth in Canterbury’s population of around 53,100
people between 2018 to 2028 (range of estimates: 13,400 to 92,800)
• Medium estimate implies the need for about 23,000 homes over 10 years (around
2,300 per year).
• Comparison
• Current: around 7000 new homes consented over the past year
• Pre-quake: around 2500 to 4500 new homes built per annum.
14. So, now what?
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How can you best use this information?
If you’d like a one-on-one meeting with me to
discuss the implications for your business