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White Paper
     Update


Long-term M&A Cycle
 Creates Opportunity
          in
  Banking Industry

   2011 in Review




     February 9, 2012




      www.fjcapital.com
Table of Contents
Executive Summary                                          3
Value Proposition Similar to Early 1990s                   4
2011 Transactions in Review                                5
Buyer Post-Transaction Price Performance                   6
Bank & Thrift Deal Valuation Trends                        7
Recent Transaction Highlights                            8-10
Sector Performance Review                                 11
Industry Fundamentals                                     12
Review of Merger Trends: 1990 to 2011 and Beyond          13
Recent M&A Quotes from Industry Participants              14
Board Perspective and Consolidation Drivers               15
Why Banks Want/Need to Merger — 2011 in Review          15-16
Impediments to M&A                                      16-17
The Banking Landscape                                     18
Summary of Potential Market Opportunity                   19
Update on FDIC-Assisted Acquisitions                      20
About FJ Capital Management                               21




                                    www.fjcapital.com       2
Executive Summary
   In this second annual white paper on bank M&A, we update our thesis on the emerging
     M&A boom in the U.S. small cap bank sector. We examine the current banking environment
     and opine on pricing and other trends that should lead to an unprecedented level of bank
     transactions during the next several years. In establishing this view, we examine the factors
     that should create the need and opportunity as well as present the challenges that have slowed
     substantial consolidation activity.

   Conditions highlighted in last year’s paper remain intact, with many recent acquisitions
     driving very attractive shareholder returns. While U.S. banking fundamentals remain
     challenged, albeit improving, and the coming M&A boom cannot be timed precisely, history
     shows stock performance often front-runs such major trends as well as actual economic
     recovery. Given the extremely compelling potential returns offered by heavily discounted
     bank valuations, the time to invest is likely sooner rather than later.

   The 159 bank M&A transactions in 2011 had an average one-day premium of 69% over the
     prior day closing price. While transaction volume moderated compared to 175 transactions
     in 2010, outsized market premiums remain about the same. Still, beyond industry
     publications and local media, small bank M&A continues to draw little attention.

   The U.S. economy continues to grow below trend following the great recession. Our thesis
     takes into account a slow and uneven recovery, regulatory changes and a more realistic view
     of long-term banking conditions. We believe that as these factors sink in, M&A will pick up
     steam and produce a record number of transactions.

   Challenges to our thesis also remain in place. With overall equity prices of buyers still
     relatively undervalued and sellers expectations still lofty, the clearing price for record M&A
     has not presented itself. Furthermore, the government’s delay in writing the new regulations
     has caused banks to retrench and wait for clarity on the rules of engagement in this changing
     regulatory world. Finally, the accounting for transactions creates challenges for buyers and
     sellers to get on the same page with respect to potential credit marks. These realities have
     caused a more cautious stance and thus a slowdown in consolidation activity.

   The irony is that the same challenges recounted above, eventually will lead to a pick up in
     M&A activity. Smart executives and boards of community banks that lack the scale to
     handle these exogenous factors will grow more weary of the tough operating and regulatory
     environment and depressed equity valuations.

   As managers execute their 2012 budgets, they see headwinds regarding both revenue and
     expenses. Revenues are lower due to the interest rate environment (a result of Operation
     Twist and lower asset yields) and weak loan demand (as the economy grows below trend).
     Additionally, the prospects of new assaults from regulatory changes (Durbin and CFPB)
     create pressure to grow the top line. On the expense side of the equation, companies will
     incur significant costs in putting the necessary infrastructure in place to handle the roughly
     400 regulations that have yet to be written.

                                        www.fjcapital.com                                         3
   It is a buyers market, yet sellers benefit — we will look at how banks capitalize on this trend.
     Banks that produced solid returns throughout the downturn, armed with strong balance sheets
     bolstered by excess capital have opportunities to grow their franchises at historically low
     multiples. Prudent managers and bank boards that choose to partner with stronger and larger
     institutions are receiving currency that looks attractively valued and poised to recover as the
     economy stabilizes.

Value Proposition Similar to Early 1990s
   If the past is prologue, prudently investing in the space before the M&A boom takes full force
     and the credit cycle has fully normalized likely will lead to outsized returns. We refer to the
     early 1990s when bank equity valuations recovered well before credit deterioration reached
     its peak (see below chart). While banks surely have more losses to take, the worst appears to
     be behind them; and investors must consider that these losses already may be baked into bank
     equities, which are trading at historically depressed levels.

   A focus on healthy, smaller banks with strong balance sheets, marked by excess capital and
     solid credit quality, can produce outsized, risk-adjusted investment returns over a multi-year
     period. Current bank equity valuations aside, these institutions are NOT all equal. In fact,
     the fundamentally strong banks view this environment as a generational opportunity to
     strengthen their franchises by taking market share from weaker players.



                  Valuation (P/TBV) vs. Credit Quality (NPAs) Over Time
               250%                                                                                                                                                                                     3.50%
                                                                                                                                   Similar to early 1990’s,
                                                                                                                                  P/TBV is poised to rise as                                            3.00%
               200%                                                                                                                   NPAs/Assets fall
                                                                                                                                                                                                        2.50%



                                                                                                                                                                                                                NPAs/Assets
               150%                                                                                                                                                                                     2.00%
       P/TBV




               100%                                                                                                                                                                                     1.50%

                                                                                                                                                                                                        1.00%
               50%
                                                                                                                                                                                                        0.50%

                0%                                                                                                                                                                                      0.00%
                      1990Y
                              1991Y
                                      1992Y
                                              1993Y
                                                      1994Y
                                                              1995Y
                                                                      1996Y
                                                                              1997Y
                                                                                       1998Y
                                                                                               1999Y
                                                                                                       2000Y
                                                                                                               2001Y
                                                                                                                        2002Y
                                                                                                                                2003Y
                                                                                                                                        2004Y
                                                                                                                                                2005Y
                                                                                                                                                        2006Y
                                                                                                                                                                2007Y
                                                                                                                                                                        2008Y
                                                                                                                                                                                2009Y
                                                                                                                                                                                        2010Y
                                                                                                                                                                                                2011Y




                                                                                      P/TBV                            NPAs/Assets


      Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research




                                                                                      www.fjcapital.com                                                                                                                       4
Transactions in Review
In FJ Capital’s inaugural 2010 white paper, we highlighted our outlook for bank M&A. The
theme of the paper was that a boom in M&A would drive the community and regional bank
sector in the coming years. Our view was and continues to be that the next M&A cycle will
rival the last major U.S. bank consolidation wave in the mid 1990s. While the past 12 months
have seen a year-over-year decrease in the number of transactions, deal value increased during
this time. There were 159 transactions in 2011, with an aggregate deal value of $16.9 billion
vs. 175 transactions worth $12.2 billion in 2010. The long-term trend of industry consolidation
continues intact as the United States has 3% less banks today than it did in 2010. We expect
activity to increase modestly thorough 2012 and pick up steam in the 2013 to 2015 timeframe
as the conditions highlighted in this paper come to fruition.
Recent M&A Activity Summarized by Year
      Period    Number of Deals Aggregate Deal Value ($M)              Avg. Deal Size ($M) Averag e P/TBV (%)         Market Premium (%)
       2011          159                  16,941                              182                  108                        68.5
       2010          175                  12,172                              112                  117                        70.6
       2009          119                  1,328                                20                  114                        64.9
       2008          143                  35,606                              304                  170                        64.9
      Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research                        Data as of December 31, 2011

One day market premiums (below) continue to support our thesis that the equity markets are not
accurately reflecting the franchise value of many community banks. In fact, the median
community bank with below $250 million in market cap currently trades at just 70% of tangible
book value. While sellers must adjust their valuation expectations, with peak pricing likely
behind us, we continue to see opportunities to earn 25%+ IRRs over the next 3-5 years by
investing in select companies.
Public Whole Banks & Thrifts M&A Transactions
Excludes FDIC-Assisted Transactions
1/1/2011 Through 12/31/2011
                                                                                                        Deal  Price/    1 Day
                                                                    Target Target    Announcement
Rank                    Buyer Name/ Target Name                                                        Value Tangible Premium
                                                                    S tate Ticker    Date (m/d/yyyy)
                                                                                                        ($M) Book (%)    (%)
        AVERAGES                                                                                        137.8 127.5      68.5
        MEDIANS                                                                                          37.6 125.0      51.1
  1     Beneficial M utual Bancorp, Inc. (M HC)/ SE Financial Corp.     PA    SEFL     12/5/2011        32.2  110.5     249.4
  2     S&T Bancorp, Inc./ M ainline Bancorp, Inc.                      PA   M NPA     9/14/2011        21.4  125.9     191.4
  3     SCBT Financial Corporation/ Peoples Bancorporation, Inc.        SC   PBCE      12/19/2011        41.4  61.4     164.4
  4     Opus Bank/ RM G Capital Corporation                             CA   RM GC      6/6/2011         49.2 130.6     147.1
  5     F.N.B. Corporation/ Parkvale Financial Corporation              PA   PVSA       6/15/2011       130.7  197.6    106.7
  6     ESSA Bancorp, Inc./ First Star Bancorp, Inc.                    PA    FSSB     12/21/2011        24.7  49.3      90.2
  7     Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc./ CommerceFirst Bancorp, Inc.         MD   CM FB     12/20/2011       25.4  106.7      79.7
  8     AltaPacific Bancorp/ Stellar Business Bank                      CA   SLRB      9/14/2011        17.4   98.8      72.7
  9     Grandpoint Capital, Inc./ Orange Community Bancorp              CA   OCBN      3/10/2011        32.1  134.6      67.1
 10     NBT Bancorp Inc./ Hampshire First Bank                          NH   HFBN      11/16/2011       45.2  144.0      65.9
 11     Brookline Bancorp, Inc./ Bancorp Rhode Island, Inc.             RI   BARI      4/19/2011        233.7 193.3      57.1
 12     First PacTrust Bancorp, Inc./ Beach Business Bank               CA   BBBC      8/30/2011        37.1  119.1      53.8
 13     Embarcadero Bank/ Coronado First Bank                           CA   CDFB      3/22/2011          9.3  99.7      48.4
 14     Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc./ Tower Bancorp, Inc.               PA   TOBC      6/20/2011        342.1 149.3      40.6
 15     Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Inc./ Connecticut Bank and Trust Compa CT   CTBC      10/25/2011       30.0  143.2      33.0
 16     People's United Financial, Inc./ Danvers Bancorp, Inc.          MA   DNBK      1/20/2011        488.9 184.1      32.9
 17     Comerica Incorporated/ Sterling Bancshares, Inc.                TX    SBIB     1/16/2011       1028.9 229.7      29.8
 18     Valley National Bancorp/ State Bancorp, Inc.                    NY   STBC      4/28/2011        266.9 188.2      25.7
 19     Home Bancorp, Inc./ GS Financial Corp.                          LA   GSLA      3/30/2011        26.4   95.4      21.7
 20     Park Sterling Corporation/ Community Capital Corporation        SC   CPBK      3/30/2011        32.3   69.7      21.2
 21     Kentucky First Federal Bancorp (M HC)/ CKF Bancorp, Inc.        KY   CKFB      11/3/2011        10.5   80.8      16.4
 22     California United Bank/ Premier Commercial Bancorp              CA   PCBP      12/8/2011        38.1   91.6      15.9
 23     Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc./ Abington Bancorp, Inc.            PA   ABBC      1/26/2011        273.8 124.1      13.8
 24     BankUnited, Inc./ Herald National Bank                          NY    HNB        6/2/2011        70.0  132.0      0.1

      Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research                    Data as of December 31, 2011
                                                                    www.fjcapital.com                                                      5
Overall, buyer stock price performance has been positive following the announcement of a
transaction to purchase a target bank. This trend is illustrated in the below table.

  Median Buyer Price Performance Post‐Transaction Announcement
       Year      1 Month (%) 3 Months (%) 6 Months  (%) 1 Year (%)
       1990              0.0%         0.0%          ‐0.5%    ‐4.5%
       1991              0.4%         8.5%          18.4%    30.3%
       1992              2.7%         6.5%           5.3%    19.2%
       1993              0.4%        ‐0.3%          ‐0.5%    ‐1.2%
       1994              0.0%         1.2%           1.8%     9.5%
       1995              1.5%         6.5%           9.8%    20.9%
       1996              1.4%         7.6%          15.6%    40.8%
       1997              3.9%         9.5%          20.0%    25.2%
       1998              0.2%         0.0%          ‐4.0%    ‐9.5%
       1999             ‐2.0%        ‐5.2%         ‐12.2%   ‐18.3%
       2000              2.2%         4.9%           7.5%    19.4%
       2001              2.8%         2.8%          12.9%    11.9%
       2002             ‐1.0%         1.4%           0.0%    15.6%
       2003              1.6%         5.2%          10.4%    17.5%
       2004              1.3%         1.6%           0.3%     5.9%
       2005             ‐0.3%         0.6%           2.9%     4.8%
       2006              0.3%         0.7%           0.0%    ‐4.0%
       2007             ‐1.3%        ‐5.5%          ‐8.2%   ‐21.7%
       2008              0.0%        ‐5.3%         ‐16.7%   ‐24.0%
       2009             ‐1.1%        ‐1.2%           0.9%     0.6%
       2010              0.8%         3.4%           3.6%    ‐1.8%
       2011             ‐0.1%        ‐5.3%          ‐9.3%       NA
  Grand Medians          0.7%         1.7%           2.7%     6.0%

  Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research   Data as of January 5, 2012


While this table highlights post-transaction announcement performance for all acquisitive
banks, the stock performance of the successful acquirers is muted by the stock performance of
the less successful acquirers. The result of an industry with so many banks and so many deals
is that a certain number of acquisitive banks have actually become quite successful acquirers
and have turned it into a business in its own right. These institutions have seen much better
stock performance than what is shown above, and represent another way to invest in banking
consolidation.




                                         www.fjcapital.com                                 6
The next chart highlights M&A pricing trends and offers some key takeaways.

 During recessionary periods, transaction pricing averaged 125% to 150% of tangible book
   value.
 The peak level of 264% of tangible book value was reached in 1998 due to a debt-enhanced
   economy that is unlikely to repeat in the foreseeable future.
 Contrary to expectations, transactions are getting done, albeit at lower pricing of 125% to
   150% of adjusted tangible book. Since 2009, over 450 deals have been announced.

                                                                 Bank & Thrift M&A & Deal Valuations (P/TBV)
                     600                                                                                                                                                               300 

                               Early 1990's                                                              Early                                     Housing crash, credit
                               Banking Crisis                                                            2000's                                    crisis and recession
                                                                                                         Recession                                 (2007 to Present)

                     500                                                                                                                                                               250 




                     400                                                                                                                                                               200 
       Transaction




                                                                                                                                                                                           P/TBV (%)
          Count




                     300                                                                                                                                                               150 




                     200                                                                                                                                                               100 




                     100                                                                                                                                                               50 




                      ‐                                                                                                                                                                ‐
                            1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
            Transactions 203       299    380    470    526    436    443    450    476    334    254    251    212    261    269    270    293     288    143    119    175    159 
            P/TBV (%)       145    139    151    172    172    178    186    223    264    229    202    187    188    216    224    229    244     230    170    114    117    108 



     Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research                                              Data as of January 5, 2012


In 2010, failed bank or FDIC-assisted transactions created a slowdown in whole bank
acquisitions, a trend that began to reverse in 2011. The open-bank consolidation trend should
continue as banks better understand the value of their balance sheets.

We will later examine other factors that drive M&A and draw conclusions on the next great
consolidation boom. But first, let’s review some of the recent transactions that highlight the
compelling opportunity we foresee during the next several years.




                                                                             www.fjcapital.com                                                                                                         7
Recent Transaction Highlights

    Buyer: F.N.B. Corporation (FNB)
    Seller: Parkvale Financial Corporation (PVSA)

    Announcement: June 15, 2011
    Deal Value: $130 million                        Valuation: 198% of TBV
    1-Day Market Premium: NM                        1-Month Market Premium: 120.8%
    Seller ROA: 0.4%                                 Seller ROE: 6.6%

    Buyer Expectations:
    TBV Accretion: Flattish without equity raise and 5.7% accretive with equity raise
    Earnings Accretion: 6% in year 1
    TBV Earn Back Period: N/A

    Transaction Rationale:
    In-market consolidation to strengthen FNB’s status in Pittsburgh, PA market, where
    MSA market rank increases from #7 to #3. Parkvale had security issues that detracted
    from a valuable Pittsburgh franchise. FNB capitialized on the opportunity to
    significantly add to its density in the Pittsburgh MSA.




     Buyer: Brookline Bancorp, Inc. (BRKL)
     Seller: Bancorp Rhode Island, Inc. (BARI)

     Announcement: April 19, 2011
     Deal Value: $234 million                         Valuation: 193% of TBV
     1-Day Market Premium: 57.1%                      1-Month Market Premium: 58.5%
     Seller ROA: 0.6%                                 Seller ROE: 7.7%

     Buyer Expectations:
     TBV Dilution: 22% or $1.66 per share
     Earnings Accretion: 25% accretive to EPS in 2012
     TBV Earn Back Period: > 8 years

     Transaction Rationale:
     Out of market expansion to leverage excess capital via acquisition of a target in a less
     competitive market. Focus on long run EPS growth versus TBV. BRKL paid a full
     price to gain market share in Rhode Island. BRKL was searching for a catalyst to
     drive EPS and leverage its excess capital.




                                      www.fjcapital.com                                         8
Recent Transaction Highlights (continued)


     Buyer: Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc. (SUSQ)
     Seller: Tower Bancorp, Inc. (TOBC)

     Announcement: June 20, 2011
     Deal Value: $342 million                      Valuation: 149.3% of TBV
     1-Day Market Premium: 40.6%                   1-Month Market Premium: 38.4%
     Seller ROA: 0.1%                              Seller ROE: 0.5%

     Buyer Expectations:
     TBV Dilution: 8.5% (PF TBV from $7.16 to $6.55 with Abington and Tower)
     Earnings Accretion: 10%
     TBV Earn Back Period: ~5 years

     Transaction Rationale:
     In market transaction improves Pennsylvania deposit market share from #12 (PF with
     Abington) to #5




     Buyer: Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Inc. (BHLB)
     Seller: Connecticut Bank and Trust Company (CTBC)

     Announcement: October 25, 2011
     Deal Value: 30 million                         Valuation: 143.2% of TBV
     1-Day Market Premium: 33%                      1-Month Market Premium: 29.4%
     Seller ROA: 0.7%                               Seller ROE: 7.2%

     Buyer Expectations:
     TBV Dilution: 4% or $0.65 per share
     Earnings Accretion: Core EPS accretion of $0.03 in 2012 before net deal costs
     TBV Earn Back Period: >8 years, per Sandler O’Neill research

     Transaction Rationale:
     Future accretion to benefit from revenue synergies and regional expansion.
     Demographically accretive, reflecting the comparatively high income and population
     densities in the Hartford, CT market. CTBC’s TARP to be repaid at/near closing.




                                     www.fjcapital.com                                    9
Recent Transaction Highlights (continued)



     Buyer: People’s United Financial, Inc. (PBCT)
     Seller: Danvers Bancorp, Inc. (DNBK)

     Announcement: January 20, 2011
     Deal Value: $489 million                        Valuation: 184.1% of TBV
     1-Day Market Premium: 33%                       1-Month Market Premium: 38%
     Seller ROA: 0.7%                                Seller ROE: 6.1%

     Buyer Expectations:
     TBV Dilution: 6.7%
     Earnings Accretion: 2012 operating EPS accretion of ~$0.08
     TBV Earn Back Period: ~7 years

     Transaction Rationale:
     Leverages excess capital and accretive to EPS. Immediately adds scale to existing
     Boston MSA presence. Pro forma PBCT improves to 7th largest bank in
     Massachusetts (from #16) and Boston MSA (from #15) and 2nd largest bank in Essex
     County, MA (from #9).




     Buyer: Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP)
     Seller: GS Financial Corp. (GSLA)

     Announcement: March 30,2011
     Deal Value: 26.4 million                        Valuation: 95.4% of TBV
     1-Day Market Premium: 21.7%                     1-Month Market Premium: 82.6%
     Seller ROA: 0.2%                                Seller ROE: 1.4%

     Buyer Expectations:
     TBV Dilution: Minimal
     Earnings Accretion: 10% accretive to EPS when cost savings fully phased in by 2012
     TBV Earn Back Period: N/A. Continued positive TBV growth, even during quarter in
     which transaction closed.

     Transaction Rationale:
     Expands Louisiana franchise via addition of GSLA’s presence into Orleans and
     Jefferson Parishes and leverages excess capital with a transaction priced below TBV.




                                      www.fjcapital.com                                     10
Sector Performance Review
The anemic U.S. economic recovery drove the smaller cap bank index down 4.04% in 2011,
while the NASDAQ Bank Index was down 12.4%. In 2010, the banking sector experienced a
rebound as the economic picture looked “less bad”. The higher returns were led by the larger
cap banks, which advanced 11.4%, while the smaller cap banks were up 5.2%.

The relentless negative headlines centered around mortgage abuses coupled with economic
headwinds and regulatory pressures caused a major break in large cap bank stocks in 2011.
Smaller community banks fared better as their equity prices have not materially advanced since
the start of the economic downturn in 2007. The volatility in the sector continued, as most of
the declines were registered in August and September of last year, with the NASDAQ Bank
index down 19% in the two-month span. Smaller cap bank stocks experienced less volatility
than their larger brethren in 2011, outperforming the bigger banks and money centers by more
than 20%. We believe this return disparity is justified due to the current steeply discounted
multiple of book value for small cap banks stocks and the resurgence of both actual M&A
activity as well as projected activity over the next few years. We would also add that the
economic conditions of the “survivors” of the past cycle are stronger now than in 2007, as
many of the non-performing loans continue to work through the resolution process. For sure,
many headwinds exist, including continued weak economic activity characterized by fits and
starts, margin pressure as a result of Fed intervention, and a lack of revenue resulting from the
below trend U.S. economic environment.

As shown in the following chart, since Nov. 30, 2006, the average market multiple has drifted
well below tangible book value, with the current median at only 70% of tangible book value.
The index that tracks 1,000 public banks and thrifts has traded off nearly 70% during this time.

     Index                         SNL Bank & Thrift Index1                                             Index
  Total Return          (1,000 companies with < $250 million Market Cap)                                P/TBV
  1000%                                                                                                  300%

                         241%                                                                            250%
   800%
                                                                                    Down 3
                                                                                    69%                  200%
   600%
                                                                     FJ Starts                           150%
   400%                                                              2/1/2008
                                                                                                         100%

   200%                                                                             Historically low
                                                                                                         50%
                                                                                    valuation and
                                                                                        prices 2,
    0%                                                                                                   0%
     Dec-1994             Dec-1998              Dec-2002              Dec-2006               Dec-2010

  Source: SNL Financial LC.
  1
    The historical chart-line reflects a market-weighted index.
  2
    The 12/31/2011 Micro-Cap (excluding MHCs) median valuation of 70% is based on an equal-weighted index.
  3
    Micro-cap banks fell 18% from the 3/23/07 peak through 2/1/2008, then fell 58% more through 11/25/2011 for
  total fall of 70%.

                                            www.fjcapital.com                                                    11
Industry Fundamentals
The banking industry’s fundamentals have generally improved year-over-year (Y/Y). FDIC
data shows that, despite 3.3% Y/Y industry asset growth, loans fell by 0.7%, a testament to an
important challenge many banks face in growing earnings. In contrast, deposit growth has been
very robust, up 9.9% Y/Y. Given the lack of lending opportunities, more deposits have been
invested in securities, typically at lower yields than loans. The confluence of these trends can
be seen in declining net interest margins (NIMs) in many recent earnings reports, although the
below table, based on data from SNL Financial LC, shows marginal year-over-year
improvement at the end of the recent September quarter.

A significant aspect of the banking industry is a major bifurcation in the financial condition and
performance of banks. In short, not all banks are equal, with many banks performing well or
well-enough, and many other banks facing almost insurmountable challenges to manage
problem loans, rising expenses and major growth headwinds.
 Select Banking Industry Metrics
                              9/30/2010         9/30/2011                      9/30/2010                   9/30/2011                       9/30/2010                     9/30/2011
                                  Median            Median          Percentile: > 50            Percentile: > 50              Percentile:  < 50             Percentile:  < 50
 ROAA (%)                                
                                        0.48               
                                                          0.61                            
                                                                                         0.95                         
                                                                                                                     1.03                           
                                                                                                                                                   (0.81)                         
                                                                                                                                                                                 (0.37)
 ROAE (%)                                
                                        4.75               
                                                          5.69                            
                                                                                         9.61                       
                                                                                                                   10.12                          
                                                                                                                                                 (12.28)                          
                                                                                                                                                                                 (6.93)
 Net Interest Margin (%)                 
                                        3.71               
                                                          3.75                            
                                                                                         4.25                         
                                                                                                                     4.30                             
                                                                                                                                                     3.19                           
                                                                                                                                                                                   3.26
 TCE/TA (%)                              
                                        8.57               
                                                          8.84                          
                                                                                       11.83                        
                                                                                                                   12.06                              
                                                                                                                                                     6.26                           
                                                                                                                                                                                   6.33
 Reserves/ Gross Loans (%)               
                                        1.71               
                                                          1.80                            
                                                                                         2.72                         
                                                                                                                     2.78                             
                                                                                                                                                     1.22                           
                                                                                                                                                                                   1.28
 NPAs/ Assets (%)                        
                                        2.63               
                                                          2.79                            
                                                                                         1.25                         
                                                                                                                     1.35                             
                                                                                                                                                     6.06                           
                                                                                                                                                                                   6.49
 NCOs/ Avg Loans (%)                     
                                        0.54               
                                                          0.44                            
                                                                                         0.15                         
                                                                                                                     0.11                             
                                                                                                                                                     2.32                           
                                                                                                                                                                                   1.80
  Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research


The first two data columns of the above table highlight Y/Y comparisons of industry medians
for select metrics. The third and fourth data columns highlight the Y/Y comparisons of the
metric averages for the top half (50th to 100th percentile) of the metrics reported by all public
banks (i.e., higher performers). The fifth and sixth data columns highlight the Y/Y comparisons
of the metric averages for the bottom half (below 50th percentile) of the metrics reported by all
public banks (i.e., lower performers). For instance, the top half of the banking industry is much
more profitable than the bottom half, as the third quarter 2011 ROAA of the former is 1.03%
and the ROAA of the latter is (0.37%). Comparisons made between the two sub-groups’ credit
metrics and capital levels also demonstrate significant financial differences.

Clearly, many banks are facing industry challenges much more successfully than others. On
this front, size matters, and a rule of thumb used by many industry experts is that most banks
eventually will need to be $1 billion in assets or greater in order to achieve the scale necessary
to operate as an independent entity. Notably, non-interest income growth is currently anemic
due in no small part to regulatory pressures against bank fees (i.e., Durban Amendment of Dodd
Frank). Meanwhile, non-interest expense cuts can be achieved given the slower growth and
improving credit trends, but this is tough for smaller banks that lack the asset base over which
to spread rising regulatory costs. Cost cuts are more likely to come via M&A synergies.

Looking forward, many banks will have too high a hurdle to clear in finding levers to pull that
will achieve acceptable returns. This will drive a good number of these banks to the M&A alter.
                                                             www.fjcapital.com                                                                                                            12
Review of Merger Trends: 1990 to 2011 and Beyond
As demonstrated below, consolidation is clearly the dominant trend in the bank sector, with the
number of banks and thrifts dropping by about half, from almost 16,000 in 1989 to well below
8,000 today. Furthermore, based on the “new normal” operating environment, there could be a
similar decline during the next five years. In short, we believe conditions exist for a substantial
rebound in M&A that could equal or exceed 1994 peak levels.

                                                                                        Number of U.S. Banks & Thrifts
 16,000



 14,000



 12,000



 10,000



  8,000



  6,000



  4,000



  2,000



        0
                                                                                                                                                                                         6/30/1…
              1990A

                      1991A

                              1992A

                                       1993A

                                               1994A

                                                       1995A

                                                                1996A

                                                                        1997A

                                                                                1998A

                                                                                         1999A

                                                                                                 2000A

                                                                                                         2001A

                                                                                                                 2002A

                                                                                                                         2003A

                                                                                                                                 2004A

                                                                                                                                         2005A

                                                                                                                                                 2006A

                                                                                                                                                         2007A

                                                                                                                                                                 2008A

                                                                                                                                                                         2009A

                                                                                                                                                                                 2010A



                                                                                                                                                                                                   2012E

                                                                                                                                                                                                           2013E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2014E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2015E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2016E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2017E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2018E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           2019E

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   2020E
 1990       1991      1992            1993      1994           1995 1996                1997       1998          1999      2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 6/30/201
                                                                                                                                                                                0        1

 1 58 1
  5,1  4,482 13,853 13,221 12,604 1 ,971 1 ,454 1
                                   1      1      0,923 10,464 10,222 9,904 9,61 9,354 9,1 8,976 8,833 8,680 8,534 8,305 8,01 7,657
                                                                               4         81                                 2                                                                                                                                 7,418

 2012       2013      2014            2015      2016           201 201
                                                                  7   8                 2019      2020                                                                              Sources: FDIC & FJ Capital Research
 7,281 6,917          6,571 6,243 6,056 5,874 5,698 5,527 5,361                                                                                                                                                     Data as of June 30, 2011


The above chart highlights the trends in bank transactions during the last 20 years, and our
estimate of what they likely will look like going forward. The last major boom in M&A was
the period from 1991 to 1998. After the 1990 to 1991 recession, which was particularly
harmful to real estate lenders, there was a spike in consolidation activity as the economy began
to show signs of improvement. Moreover, deals exploded to a peak of 526 transactions in 1994.

Steady consolidation activity slowed considerably in 2000, however, as bank stock valuations
took a back seat to the dot-com bubble and the resulting 2001 to 2003 recession. Thereafter,
bank deals began to pick up until the recent financial crisis of 2007, the effects of which
continue to plague bank balance sheets even today. The current recession is again centered on
real estate and has crippled many companies in the sector.


                                                                                                         www.fjcapital.com                                                                                                                                                 13
Recent M&A Quotes from Industry Participants
 A December 2011 article in SNL Financial highlighted the inevitability of bank M&A. “Declines in
 lending and spreads, coupled with higher capital requirements, will over the next three to four years
 leave some 3,000 banks — the vast majority of them community banks — unable to generate a sig-
 nificant return on capital,” said Kamal Mustafa, Chairman of Invictus Consulting Group and a former
 Citigroup Inc. banker in charge of M&A. Moreover, a “massive wave of consolidation” is inevitable
 as small community banks pair up or sell to larger players in order to gain the size needed to compete
 with the big banks and, equally important, to “eliminate destructive competition” among smaller
 banks, Mustafa said. He added, “It has to happen. There’s been a paradigm shift across the board,
 and there’s no other way to make it. There are 7,500-plus banks now. In five years, 5,000 would be
 too many.”

 “It’s about scale. It’s about size. It’s about the ability to absorb the increase in operating costs in an
 environment that is difficult to grow your earnings,” “Revenue growth was becoming a challenge. As
 we forecast it out over the next couple of years, we feel that it is going to continue to be a challenge
 while costs are going to continue to increase,” said John Keach Jr., CEO of Indiana Community Ban-
 corp, which announced its sale to Old National Bancorp on Jan. 24, 2012.


 “There’s been a lot more engagement recently from banks, people really starting now to explore their
 options, starting to have serious discussions” about possible sales, said John Boulware, Managing
 Director at Community Capital Advisors. “And at some point, things will begin to snowball — M&A
 activity will beget more M&A activity.”

 "There's definitely something in the water," said Lee Bradley, Senior Managing Director at Commu-
 nity Capital Advisors. "There are more people looking to sell, and more buyers at least showing some
 interest." In an October SNL Financial article, Bradley said smaller banks — those with roughly
 $250 million in assets or less — are likely to account for the largest share of sellers, as such compa-
 nies with smaller bases over which to spread new expenses struggle the most to absorb rising compli-
 ance costs linked to the Dodd-Frank legislation.

 “The ability to reduce costs through consolidation is one of the few tools that bankers have to improve
 operating results, as the fundamental business drivers will likely stay soft and banks face heightened
 regulatory compliance costs,” said Tom Tullidge Jr., a Managing Director at Cary Street Partners
 LCC.

 “I know for a fact that a lot of thrifts are thinking hard about changing their charters to become a com-
 mercial bank…thrifts by regulation had to have 65% of their balance sheet in housing and housing-
 related assets. If we've learned any lesson it's that those levels of concentration don't make any sense
 and that the real future of community banking is in diversification. I do think it's on the mind of a lot
 of thrift executives and a lot of thrift boards — how do they find the right partner and what is the
 process they need to achieve a more diversified balance sheet.”
 — C.K. Lee, investment banker and former regulator

 “We think [banking consolidation] will occur in the next 24 to 30 months as a result of earnings pres-
 sure and the Fed’s flattening of the yield curve...”
 — Berry, CEO & President, Equity Development


                                           www.fjcapital.com                                                  14
Board Perspective and Consolidation Drivers
The big question on the minds of bank management and directors is when is the right time to
consider consolidation. Some sellers are pining and holding out for the peak pricing of
previous cycles, while others recognize the challenges of the current environment and have
decided to look for a partner. We believe peak pricing levels may be behind us as the economy
has structural issues that will take an extended period to adjust. First, peak pricing was a result
of a “hyper” economy driven by extreme levels of debt and irrational real estate gains. The
hangover will last for some time and will be characterized by slower growth and higher-than-
desired unemployment.

Bear in mind that many banks have just been through one of the toughest recessions in memory
and are dealing with the after effects, namely an extended low-rate environment that is
pressuring revenue. Additionally, the pendulum of regulatory involvement has swung to the
extreme with the final regulatory orders yet to be determined. So in addition to the past five
years of economic weakness and financial meltdowns, they are faced with another three to five
years of tepid growth, unnatural intervention by the Fed and a fight for well priced and solid
credits to add to the loan portfolio.

Why Banks Want/Need to Merge — 2011 Review
Generally speaking, the same drivers that existed in the early 1990s exist today. However,
there are new important drivers not present in 1994. For starters, there continue to be too many
banks competing for the same marginal deposit and loan. Major consolidation factors include:

  Cost Savings – The typical merger can save 20% to 40% in operating costs, thereby
creating significant earnings accretion for the combined entity.

  Lack of Loan Growth – Due to banking competition and the over saturation of banks, loan
growth could be muted in even the best of times. This is especially true in the current economic
environment, with large businesses hoarding record levels of cash and small businesses not
seeing the end demand needed to make capital investment. In addition, many individuals and
households are working to repair damaged balance sheets and de-lever.

  Lack of Access to Capital Markets – Most small cap firms have limited access to the capital
markets. Even if they have access, the punitive pricing commonplace in today’s market means
this route may not be an economically viable capital raising option for many smaller banking
institutions. Therefore, capital restraints will force banks to partner up.

  Fairly Illiquid Trading – Most smaller cap banks tend to have fairly illiquid shares. The
boards of such institutions will consider this as they deliberate on ways to increase shareholder
value. Most institutional investors will not invest in companies they deem illiquid, tending to
shy away from market caps under $500 million. This excludes most of the public banks and
thrifts from receiving direct investments by institutional investors.



                                       www.fjcapital.com                                        15
  Management/Board Fatigue – Sophisticated management and boards understand that a
bank must have a valid business plan in place, one that includes either organic growth or growth
via acquisition. We suspect many leaders find it difficult to execute their original business
plans in the current economic environment. This recession has been particularly tough on
banks focused on real estate lending. Therefore, we believe many banking leaders currently are
weighing their M&A options.

 Regulatory Reform – One recent factor is the Dodd-Frank legislation. The potential for
change is yet to be fully processed by management teams and boards. It is clear the regulation
will greatly increase operating costs and will reduce shareholder returns. In fact, new capital
standards alone will make it much harder for companies to earn an acceptable return on equity
to justify independence. Additionally, uncertainty surrounds the implementation of the new
reform and the potential impact on generating acceptable returns.

Impediments to M&A
 Evolving Accounting Standards – The accounting for bank M&A has evolved from the
favorable pooling of interest method (prior to 2001) to purchase accounting with new
pronouncements, such as SFAS 141R, and other bulletins along the way. Pooling was
favorable as it allowed the combination of assets and liabilities and did not create material
goodwill. Under the current scheme, all transactions are now completed under purchase
accounting. To complicate matters (or increase transparency, depending on your view) FASB
introduced SFAS 141R along with several bulletins that, among other things, restrict
transferring reserves over to the acquirer. These accounting rules, coupled with the credit
marks assumed by the buyers, create issues for both buyers and sellers. The higher the credit
mark (more conservative) the greater the goodwill, thus reducing the potential price a buyer
can/will pay. We suspect the accounting treatment and the credit marks have had the effect of
slowing consolidation. As the economy improves and loan books are more easily valued, the
credit marks should moderate, paving the way for lower goodwill charges and higher multiples.

 Regulatory and Legal Uncertainty - The process of approving transactions has appeared to
slow somewhat as the agencies consolidate their base and turn their attention to writing new
rules mandated by Dodd-Frank legislation. For companies with thin capital bases or credit
quality issues, winning the approval of regulators will be more challenging than in the past. It
is not to say that regulators have failed to look at these variables in the past, but rather more
attention is given today as capital rules are yet to be written. On the legal front, it seems every
transaction has some type of legal/investigation attached to it. While most of these suits are not
grounded in strong logic, nonetheless it is one more consideration to pulling the trigger on an
M&A transaction.

 Bank Stock Valuations – Arguably one of the most important factors in bank M&A is
pricing. One of the factors that limit the potential valuation a buyer can pay is its own currency.
Bank stocks have been under considerable pressure over the last several years, reacting both to
the financial crisis and the ensuing great recession, events that historically have been especially
hard on bank stock valuations. For the most part, valuations have not recovered – since the start

                                       www.fjcapital.com                                        16
of the economic downturn, the SNL Bank and Thrift index is down 62.3%, while the smaller
banks are down 60%. The largest banks in the country, with market caps greater than $10
billion, are down 81% from their peak. In addition, the industry median price-to-book value
has declined from approximately 174% at the end of 2006 to 75% at present. Conversely,
sellers may be holding out for better times when they could fetch 2.5 to 3 times book value.
You can see with the value destruction caused in the market that seller expectations are too
high. The bid/ask spread needs to adjust as equities have adjusted over the last several years.

 Establishing the Right Credit Mark – The wide bid/ask spread between buyers and sellers
is in part driven by what the credit mark should be. While sellers have put aside reserves
(which now cannot be transferred under FASB 141r), buyers take a fresh look and re-mark the
portfolio based on their own set of assumptions. Buyers will take a conservative approach to
make sure they identified all the impairments and mark them accordingly. Sellers either believe
their marks are appropriate for the risk or they are in denial about the real mark to mark value of
their loan books. We believe the answer falls somewhere in the middle. Nonetheless, this is a
major impediment when delivering a price that the seller can accept.

 Social Issues – The social issues are an important consideration when discussing potential
mergers and acquisitions. The phrase most often used in this sector is “banks are sold not
bought,” which refers to the fact that boards and managements make the decision to sell rather
than reacting to either a hostile situation or overtures from other banks. That is not to say that
good bank managers are not talking all the time to potential sellers, rather that the ultimate
decision to pull the trigger resides with the board and/or management. It is difficult to handicap
this, as many management teams are entrenched and happy to have a job even as their
institutions are producing an insufficient ROE for shareholders. In fact, there are many
undercapitalized and underperforming banks that clearly are not acting in the best interests of
their shareholders. Most bank board members are successful business people in their own
rights, yet are often guided by managers that are not always aligned with shareholders. We
strongly suspect that as more bank boards realize that the industry will not move back to peak
profitability or peak pricing, more will decide to find a partner.




                                       www.fjcapital.com                                        17
The Banking Landscape
                                                   # of Institutions                Assets ($ Billions)
 Total Industry Banks & Thrifts                     7,040        100%               18,460          100%
  Private                                           5,799         82%                2,512           14%
  Public                                            1,241        18%                15,948           86%

                                                   # of Institutions                Assets ($ Billions)
 Public Banks & Thrifts                             1,241        100%               15,948          100%
  Public Banks                                       992          80%               15,317           96%
  Public Thrifts                                     249          20%                632              4%

                                                   # of Institutions                Assets ($ Billions)
 Public Thrifts                                      249         100%                632            100%
  Fully Public                                       196          79%                593             94%
  MHCs                                                53          21%                 39             6%
  Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research             Data as of January 2, 2012


The above chart illustrates the landscape of private and public U.S. banking institutions. A
review of the opportunity set shows that the majority of banks are small community banks with
assets of less than $500 million. Of that, roughly 1,100 are publicly traded companies with
market caps below $250 million, and a combined $85 billion capitalization (table on p. 19).


                        U.S. Banking System Composition
                         Number of Banks by Asset Size
  6,000        5,714




  4,000




  2,000


                                   646
                                                          400
                                                                              76              154
      0
            $0 to $500 Mil   $500 Mil to $1 Bil      $1 Bil to $3 Bil    $3 Bil to 5 Bil     $5+ Bil


  Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research             Data as of January 2, 2012

                                                  www.fjcapital.com                                        18
Summary of Potential Market Opportunity
SNL Micro-Cap Bank & Thrift Index
               993 Companies with:
                   --A Median Market Cap of                            $             20.6 Million
                   --An Average Market Cap of                          $             39.3 Million
                           --For a Total Index Market Cap of           $             39.0 Billion
SNL Small-Cap Bank & Thrift Index
                 98 Companies with:
                    --A Median Market Cap of                           $            426.2 Million
                    --An Average Market Cap of                         $            474.0 Million
                    --For a Total Index Market Cap of                  $             46.5 Billion
SNL Micro-Cap and Small Cap Bank & Thrift Indices
              1,091 Companies with:
                    --A Median Market Cap of                           $             25.0 Million
                    --An Average Market Cap of                         $             78.3 Million
                    --For a Total Index Market Cap of                  $             85.5 Billion

 Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research                Data as of February 3, 2012

As noted below, nearly 764 companies are trading at less than book value, reflecting investor
appetite for liquidity coupled with the current economic environment and company-specific
issues. As previously stated, new capital requirements and banks’ lack of access to the public
markets, will contribute significantly to the increase in consolidation. As the below chart
shows, 413 companies or 54% of the public banks trading below tangible book value, are
experiencing substandard capital levels and/or elevated asset quality issues.

        Public Banks: Current Valuation and Credit Summary

   Public Banks                                         1,180              100.0%
   P/TBV >= 100% as of close on 2/3/2012                  352              29.8%
   P/TBV < 100% as of close on 2/3/2012                   764              64.7%
   P/TBV is not available or not meaningful                64               5.4%

   P/TBV < 100%                                           764              100.0%
   TCE > 6% AND NPAs/Assets < or = 4%                     472               61.8%
     TCE > 6%                                             990              129.6%
     NPAs <= 4%                                           747               97.8%
   TCE < 6% AND NPAs/Assets > or = 4%                     122              16.0%
    TCE < 6%                                              179              23.4%
    NPAs >= 4%                                            413              54.1%
   No TCE data available                                   11               1.4%
   No NPA data available                                   20               2.6%


 Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research         Data as of February 3, 2012

                                              www.fjcapital.com                                     19
Update on FDIC-Assisted Transactions
The financial crisis of late 2007 sparked a resurgence in bank failures. As shown below, the
real estate bust led to an unprecedented number of failures in the early 1990s. The trough phase
of the most recent cycle has seen some very large institutions fail, yet the absolute number of
failures remains well below the peak created in the prior real estate crash.

Companies with strong balance sheets have taken advantage of this cycle to prudently grow
their franchises. Often, multiple bidders try to grow their franchises with the help of
government stop-loss guarantees. The below chart shows that while the U.S. economic
recovery still has a long way to go, the pace of FDIC-assisted transactions has slowed, coupled
with much more competitive pricing.


                                       Number of FDIC Assisted Deals (1990-2011)

   555


           485




                  279



                                194

                                                                                                                                                   147
                         118                                                                                                                115
                                                                                                                                                          90


                                       22                                                                                            25
                                              9      2      3        8      8       5      7      3      3                    3
                                                                                                                0      0
    1990


           1991


                  1992


                         1993


                                1994


                                       1995


                                              1996


                                                     1997


                                                            1998


                                                                     1999


                                                                            2000


                                                                                    2001


                                                                                           2002


                                                                                                  2003


                                                                                                         2004


                                                                                                                2005


                                                                                                                       2006


                                                                                                                              2007


                                                                                                                                     2008


                                                                                                                                            2009


                                                                                                                                                   2010


                                                                                                                                                          2011




 Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research                                   Data as of January 13, 2012

In the second half of 2010, Sheila Bair, former head of the FDIC, highlighted that there were
829 banks on the FDIC’s “Problem List” at June 30, 2010. She also declared the market near a
peak in failures and said that this cycle will produce far less bank failures than the mid 1990s
cycle. At September 30, 2011, the number of problem banks was 844, down 5% from the
recent high of 888 banks at March 31, 2011.

Based on FJ Capital’s research and SNL Financial LC data, we count 415 banks with Texas
ratios [nonperforming assets/(tangible common equity + loan loss reserves)] greater than 100
percent, a typical sign of potential failure. The five states with the highest numbers of banks
with Texas ratios above 100% are: Georgia (63 banks), Florida (43 banks), Illinois (42 banks),
Minnesota (29 banks) and Missouri (23 banks).
                                                                   www.fjcapital.com                                                                             20
About FJ Capital Management, LLC
This paper was written by FJ Capital Management Co-Founder, Managing Member and CIO,
Martin Friedman, and FJ Capital Management Managing Director, Scott Cottrell, who have a
combined 35-plus years of capital markets experience, much of this time spent following and
analyzing small- and mid- capitalization financial institutions. A special thanks goes out to
Mutian Yang, who helped significantly in data collection and presentation.

Prior to founding FJ Capital in 2007, Mr. Friedman served nine years as director of research at
Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, a major financial services firm publicly traded on the New
York Stock Exchange, where he built the 13th largest U.S. sell side research organization, with
140 professionals encompassing eight industry sectors. Previously, Mr. Friedman was a senior
research analyst focused on the financial services industry covering small- and mid- cap banks
and thrifts. Mr. Friedman has been analyzing and investing in this sector for over 20 years. Mr.
Friedman currently serves on the board of Access National Bank (ANCX), an $800 million asset
community bank headquartered in Reston, VA.

Prior to joining FJ Capital, Mr. Cottrell served as a research analyst at FBR covering small-
and mid- cap banks and thrifts. Mr. Cottrell has approximately 15 years of banking industry
experience for firms that include Wells Fargo, National City Bank and Servus Financial Corp.
He is a CPA and earned his MBA from Georgetown University.

FJ Capital Management is a fundamentally driven investment management firm founded in
2007 that analyzes and invests in publicly traded U.S. community and regional banks through
alternative strategies. The firm utilizes proprietary fundamental research to uncover value
disparities in the small- and mid-cap bank sector and seeks to take advantage of these disparities
by building core positions with longer term holding periods. The firm also seeks to generate
attractive, risk-adjusted investment returns by uncovering opportunities with identifiable, near-
term catalysts. For more on FJ Capital or to further explore opportunities in the bank sector,
please visit www.fjcapital.com or contact:

Andrew Jose                                  FJ Capital Management
O: 703.875.8378                              1313 Dolley Madison Blvd.,
M: 703.408.0394                              Suite 306
ajose@fjcapital.com                          McLean, VA 22101
www.fjcapital.com

Important Disclosures:
This White Paper is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute investment
advice and should not be relied upon as such. It is neither an advertisement for investment
advisory services nor an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities.

The information presented in this White Paper has been developed internally and/or obtained
from resources believed to be reliable; however, FJ Capital Management does not guarantee the
accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. References to securities or asset classes
do not constitute recommendations to purchase or sell any specific securities or asset classes.

                                       www.fjcapital.com                                       21

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Long Term M&amp;A Cycle Creates Opportunity In Banking Industry..

  • 1. White Paper Update Long-term M&A Cycle Creates Opportunity in Banking Industry 2011 in Review February 9, 2012 www.fjcapital.com
  • 2. Table of Contents Executive Summary 3 Value Proposition Similar to Early 1990s 4 2011 Transactions in Review 5 Buyer Post-Transaction Price Performance 6 Bank & Thrift Deal Valuation Trends 7 Recent Transaction Highlights 8-10 Sector Performance Review 11 Industry Fundamentals 12 Review of Merger Trends: 1990 to 2011 and Beyond 13 Recent M&A Quotes from Industry Participants 14 Board Perspective and Consolidation Drivers 15 Why Banks Want/Need to Merger — 2011 in Review 15-16 Impediments to M&A 16-17 The Banking Landscape 18 Summary of Potential Market Opportunity 19 Update on FDIC-Assisted Acquisitions 20 About FJ Capital Management 21 www.fjcapital.com 2
  • 3. Executive Summary  In this second annual white paper on bank M&A, we update our thesis on the emerging M&A boom in the U.S. small cap bank sector. We examine the current banking environment and opine on pricing and other trends that should lead to an unprecedented level of bank transactions during the next several years. In establishing this view, we examine the factors that should create the need and opportunity as well as present the challenges that have slowed substantial consolidation activity.  Conditions highlighted in last year’s paper remain intact, with many recent acquisitions driving very attractive shareholder returns. While U.S. banking fundamentals remain challenged, albeit improving, and the coming M&A boom cannot be timed precisely, history shows stock performance often front-runs such major trends as well as actual economic recovery. Given the extremely compelling potential returns offered by heavily discounted bank valuations, the time to invest is likely sooner rather than later.  The 159 bank M&A transactions in 2011 had an average one-day premium of 69% over the prior day closing price. While transaction volume moderated compared to 175 transactions in 2010, outsized market premiums remain about the same. Still, beyond industry publications and local media, small bank M&A continues to draw little attention.  The U.S. economy continues to grow below trend following the great recession. Our thesis takes into account a slow and uneven recovery, regulatory changes and a more realistic view of long-term banking conditions. We believe that as these factors sink in, M&A will pick up steam and produce a record number of transactions.  Challenges to our thesis also remain in place. With overall equity prices of buyers still relatively undervalued and sellers expectations still lofty, the clearing price for record M&A has not presented itself. Furthermore, the government’s delay in writing the new regulations has caused banks to retrench and wait for clarity on the rules of engagement in this changing regulatory world. Finally, the accounting for transactions creates challenges for buyers and sellers to get on the same page with respect to potential credit marks. These realities have caused a more cautious stance and thus a slowdown in consolidation activity.  The irony is that the same challenges recounted above, eventually will lead to a pick up in M&A activity. Smart executives and boards of community banks that lack the scale to handle these exogenous factors will grow more weary of the tough operating and regulatory environment and depressed equity valuations.  As managers execute their 2012 budgets, they see headwinds regarding both revenue and expenses. Revenues are lower due to the interest rate environment (a result of Operation Twist and lower asset yields) and weak loan demand (as the economy grows below trend). Additionally, the prospects of new assaults from regulatory changes (Durbin and CFPB) create pressure to grow the top line. On the expense side of the equation, companies will incur significant costs in putting the necessary infrastructure in place to handle the roughly 400 regulations that have yet to be written. www.fjcapital.com 3
  • 4.  It is a buyers market, yet sellers benefit — we will look at how banks capitalize on this trend. Banks that produced solid returns throughout the downturn, armed with strong balance sheets bolstered by excess capital have opportunities to grow their franchises at historically low multiples. Prudent managers and bank boards that choose to partner with stronger and larger institutions are receiving currency that looks attractively valued and poised to recover as the economy stabilizes. Value Proposition Similar to Early 1990s  If the past is prologue, prudently investing in the space before the M&A boom takes full force and the credit cycle has fully normalized likely will lead to outsized returns. We refer to the early 1990s when bank equity valuations recovered well before credit deterioration reached its peak (see below chart). While banks surely have more losses to take, the worst appears to be behind them; and investors must consider that these losses already may be baked into bank equities, which are trading at historically depressed levels.  A focus on healthy, smaller banks with strong balance sheets, marked by excess capital and solid credit quality, can produce outsized, risk-adjusted investment returns over a multi-year period. Current bank equity valuations aside, these institutions are NOT all equal. In fact, the fundamentally strong banks view this environment as a generational opportunity to strengthen their franchises by taking market share from weaker players. Valuation (P/TBV) vs. Credit Quality (NPAs) Over Time 250% 3.50% Similar to early 1990’s, P/TBV is poised to rise as 3.00% 200% NPAs/Assets fall 2.50% NPAs/Assets 150% 2.00% P/TBV 100% 1.50% 1.00% 50% 0.50% 0% 0.00% 1990Y 1991Y 1992Y 1993Y 1994Y 1995Y 1996Y 1997Y 1998Y 1999Y 2000Y 2001Y 2002Y 2003Y 2004Y 2005Y 2006Y 2007Y 2008Y 2009Y 2010Y 2011Y P/TBV NPAs/Assets Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research www.fjcapital.com 4
  • 5. Transactions in Review In FJ Capital’s inaugural 2010 white paper, we highlighted our outlook for bank M&A. The theme of the paper was that a boom in M&A would drive the community and regional bank sector in the coming years. Our view was and continues to be that the next M&A cycle will rival the last major U.S. bank consolidation wave in the mid 1990s. While the past 12 months have seen a year-over-year decrease in the number of transactions, deal value increased during this time. There were 159 transactions in 2011, with an aggregate deal value of $16.9 billion vs. 175 transactions worth $12.2 billion in 2010. The long-term trend of industry consolidation continues intact as the United States has 3% less banks today than it did in 2010. We expect activity to increase modestly thorough 2012 and pick up steam in the 2013 to 2015 timeframe as the conditions highlighted in this paper come to fruition. Recent M&A Activity Summarized by Year Period Number of Deals Aggregate Deal Value ($M) Avg. Deal Size ($M) Averag e P/TBV (%) Market Premium (%) 2011 159 16,941 182 108 68.5 2010 175 12,172 112 117 70.6 2009 119 1,328 20 114 64.9 2008 143 35,606 304 170 64.9 Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of December 31, 2011 One day market premiums (below) continue to support our thesis that the equity markets are not accurately reflecting the franchise value of many community banks. In fact, the median community bank with below $250 million in market cap currently trades at just 70% of tangible book value. While sellers must adjust their valuation expectations, with peak pricing likely behind us, we continue to see opportunities to earn 25%+ IRRs over the next 3-5 years by investing in select companies. Public Whole Banks & Thrifts M&A Transactions Excludes FDIC-Assisted Transactions 1/1/2011 Through 12/31/2011 Deal Price/ 1 Day Target Target Announcement Rank Buyer Name/ Target Name Value Tangible Premium S tate Ticker Date (m/d/yyyy) ($M) Book (%) (%) AVERAGES 137.8 127.5 68.5 MEDIANS 37.6 125.0 51.1 1 Beneficial M utual Bancorp, Inc. (M HC)/ SE Financial Corp. PA SEFL 12/5/2011 32.2 110.5 249.4 2 S&T Bancorp, Inc./ M ainline Bancorp, Inc. PA M NPA 9/14/2011 21.4 125.9 191.4 3 SCBT Financial Corporation/ Peoples Bancorporation, Inc. SC PBCE 12/19/2011 41.4 61.4 164.4 4 Opus Bank/ RM G Capital Corporation CA RM GC 6/6/2011 49.2 130.6 147.1 5 F.N.B. Corporation/ Parkvale Financial Corporation PA PVSA 6/15/2011 130.7 197.6 106.7 6 ESSA Bancorp, Inc./ First Star Bancorp, Inc. PA FSSB 12/21/2011 24.7 49.3 90.2 7 Sandy Spring Bancorp, Inc./ CommerceFirst Bancorp, Inc. MD CM FB 12/20/2011 25.4 106.7 79.7 8 AltaPacific Bancorp/ Stellar Business Bank CA SLRB 9/14/2011 17.4 98.8 72.7 9 Grandpoint Capital, Inc./ Orange Community Bancorp CA OCBN 3/10/2011 32.1 134.6 67.1 10 NBT Bancorp Inc./ Hampshire First Bank NH HFBN 11/16/2011 45.2 144.0 65.9 11 Brookline Bancorp, Inc./ Bancorp Rhode Island, Inc. RI BARI 4/19/2011 233.7 193.3 57.1 12 First PacTrust Bancorp, Inc./ Beach Business Bank CA BBBC 8/30/2011 37.1 119.1 53.8 13 Embarcadero Bank/ Coronado First Bank CA CDFB 3/22/2011 9.3 99.7 48.4 14 Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc./ Tower Bancorp, Inc. PA TOBC 6/20/2011 342.1 149.3 40.6 15 Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Inc./ Connecticut Bank and Trust Compa CT CTBC 10/25/2011 30.0 143.2 33.0 16 People's United Financial, Inc./ Danvers Bancorp, Inc. MA DNBK 1/20/2011 488.9 184.1 32.9 17 Comerica Incorporated/ Sterling Bancshares, Inc. TX SBIB 1/16/2011 1028.9 229.7 29.8 18 Valley National Bancorp/ State Bancorp, Inc. NY STBC 4/28/2011 266.9 188.2 25.7 19 Home Bancorp, Inc./ GS Financial Corp. LA GSLA 3/30/2011 26.4 95.4 21.7 20 Park Sterling Corporation/ Community Capital Corporation SC CPBK 3/30/2011 32.3 69.7 21.2 21 Kentucky First Federal Bancorp (M HC)/ CKF Bancorp, Inc. KY CKFB 11/3/2011 10.5 80.8 16.4 22 California United Bank/ Premier Commercial Bancorp CA PCBP 12/8/2011 38.1 91.6 15.9 23 Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc./ Abington Bancorp, Inc. PA ABBC 1/26/2011 273.8 124.1 13.8 24 BankUnited, Inc./ Herald National Bank NY HNB 6/2/2011 70.0 132.0 0.1 Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of December 31, 2011 www.fjcapital.com 5
  • 6. Overall, buyer stock price performance has been positive following the announcement of a transaction to purchase a target bank. This trend is illustrated in the below table. Median Buyer Price Performance Post‐Transaction Announcement Year 1 Month (%) 3 Months (%) 6 Months  (%) 1 Year (%) 1990 0.0% 0.0% ‐0.5% ‐4.5% 1991 0.4% 8.5% 18.4% 30.3% 1992 2.7% 6.5% 5.3% 19.2% 1993 0.4% ‐0.3% ‐0.5% ‐1.2% 1994 0.0% 1.2% 1.8% 9.5% 1995 1.5% 6.5% 9.8% 20.9% 1996 1.4% 7.6% 15.6% 40.8% 1997 3.9% 9.5% 20.0% 25.2% 1998 0.2% 0.0% ‐4.0% ‐9.5% 1999 ‐2.0% ‐5.2% ‐12.2% ‐18.3% 2000 2.2% 4.9% 7.5% 19.4% 2001 2.8% 2.8% 12.9% 11.9% 2002 ‐1.0% 1.4% 0.0% 15.6% 2003 1.6% 5.2% 10.4% 17.5% 2004 1.3% 1.6% 0.3% 5.9% 2005 ‐0.3% 0.6% 2.9% 4.8% 2006 0.3% 0.7% 0.0% ‐4.0% 2007 ‐1.3% ‐5.5% ‐8.2% ‐21.7% 2008 0.0% ‐5.3% ‐16.7% ‐24.0% 2009 ‐1.1% ‐1.2% 0.9% 0.6% 2010 0.8% 3.4% 3.6% ‐1.8% 2011 ‐0.1% ‐5.3% ‐9.3% NA Grand Medians 0.7% 1.7% 2.7% 6.0% Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of January 5, 2012 While this table highlights post-transaction announcement performance for all acquisitive banks, the stock performance of the successful acquirers is muted by the stock performance of the less successful acquirers. The result of an industry with so many banks and so many deals is that a certain number of acquisitive banks have actually become quite successful acquirers and have turned it into a business in its own right. These institutions have seen much better stock performance than what is shown above, and represent another way to invest in banking consolidation. www.fjcapital.com 6
  • 7. The next chart highlights M&A pricing trends and offers some key takeaways.  During recessionary periods, transaction pricing averaged 125% to 150% of tangible book value.  The peak level of 264% of tangible book value was reached in 1998 due to a debt-enhanced economy that is unlikely to repeat in the foreseeable future.  Contrary to expectations, transactions are getting done, albeit at lower pricing of 125% to 150% of adjusted tangible book. Since 2009, over 450 deals have been announced. Bank & Thrift M&A & Deal Valuations (P/TBV) 600  300  Early 1990's Early Housing crash, credit Banking Crisis 2000's crisis and recession Recession (2007 to Present) 500  250  400  200  Transaction P/TBV (%) Count 300  150  200  100  100  50  ‐ ‐ 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Transactions 203  299  380  470  526  436  443  450  476  334  254  251  212  261  269  270  293  288  143  119  175  159  P/TBV (%) 145  139  151  172  172  178  186  223  264  229  202  187  188  216  224  229  244  230  170  114  117  108  Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of January 5, 2012 In 2010, failed bank or FDIC-assisted transactions created a slowdown in whole bank acquisitions, a trend that began to reverse in 2011. The open-bank consolidation trend should continue as banks better understand the value of their balance sheets. We will later examine other factors that drive M&A and draw conclusions on the next great consolidation boom. But first, let’s review some of the recent transactions that highlight the compelling opportunity we foresee during the next several years. www.fjcapital.com 7
  • 8. Recent Transaction Highlights Buyer: F.N.B. Corporation (FNB) Seller: Parkvale Financial Corporation (PVSA) Announcement: June 15, 2011 Deal Value: $130 million Valuation: 198% of TBV 1-Day Market Premium: NM 1-Month Market Premium: 120.8% Seller ROA: 0.4% Seller ROE: 6.6% Buyer Expectations: TBV Accretion: Flattish without equity raise and 5.7% accretive with equity raise Earnings Accretion: 6% in year 1 TBV Earn Back Period: N/A Transaction Rationale: In-market consolidation to strengthen FNB’s status in Pittsburgh, PA market, where MSA market rank increases from #7 to #3. Parkvale had security issues that detracted from a valuable Pittsburgh franchise. FNB capitialized on the opportunity to significantly add to its density in the Pittsburgh MSA. Buyer: Brookline Bancorp, Inc. (BRKL) Seller: Bancorp Rhode Island, Inc. (BARI) Announcement: April 19, 2011 Deal Value: $234 million Valuation: 193% of TBV 1-Day Market Premium: 57.1% 1-Month Market Premium: 58.5% Seller ROA: 0.6% Seller ROE: 7.7% Buyer Expectations: TBV Dilution: 22% or $1.66 per share Earnings Accretion: 25% accretive to EPS in 2012 TBV Earn Back Period: > 8 years Transaction Rationale: Out of market expansion to leverage excess capital via acquisition of a target in a less competitive market. Focus on long run EPS growth versus TBV. BRKL paid a full price to gain market share in Rhode Island. BRKL was searching for a catalyst to drive EPS and leverage its excess capital. www.fjcapital.com 8
  • 9. Recent Transaction Highlights (continued) Buyer: Susquehanna Bancshares, Inc. (SUSQ) Seller: Tower Bancorp, Inc. (TOBC) Announcement: June 20, 2011 Deal Value: $342 million Valuation: 149.3% of TBV 1-Day Market Premium: 40.6% 1-Month Market Premium: 38.4% Seller ROA: 0.1% Seller ROE: 0.5% Buyer Expectations: TBV Dilution: 8.5% (PF TBV from $7.16 to $6.55 with Abington and Tower) Earnings Accretion: 10% TBV Earn Back Period: ~5 years Transaction Rationale: In market transaction improves Pennsylvania deposit market share from #12 (PF with Abington) to #5 Buyer: Berkshire Hills Bancorp, Inc. (BHLB) Seller: Connecticut Bank and Trust Company (CTBC) Announcement: October 25, 2011 Deal Value: 30 million Valuation: 143.2% of TBV 1-Day Market Premium: 33% 1-Month Market Premium: 29.4% Seller ROA: 0.7% Seller ROE: 7.2% Buyer Expectations: TBV Dilution: 4% or $0.65 per share Earnings Accretion: Core EPS accretion of $0.03 in 2012 before net deal costs TBV Earn Back Period: >8 years, per Sandler O’Neill research Transaction Rationale: Future accretion to benefit from revenue synergies and regional expansion. Demographically accretive, reflecting the comparatively high income and population densities in the Hartford, CT market. CTBC’s TARP to be repaid at/near closing. www.fjcapital.com 9
  • 10. Recent Transaction Highlights (continued) Buyer: People’s United Financial, Inc. (PBCT) Seller: Danvers Bancorp, Inc. (DNBK) Announcement: January 20, 2011 Deal Value: $489 million Valuation: 184.1% of TBV 1-Day Market Premium: 33% 1-Month Market Premium: 38% Seller ROA: 0.7% Seller ROE: 6.1% Buyer Expectations: TBV Dilution: 6.7% Earnings Accretion: 2012 operating EPS accretion of ~$0.08 TBV Earn Back Period: ~7 years Transaction Rationale: Leverages excess capital and accretive to EPS. Immediately adds scale to existing Boston MSA presence. Pro forma PBCT improves to 7th largest bank in Massachusetts (from #16) and Boston MSA (from #15) and 2nd largest bank in Essex County, MA (from #9). Buyer: Home Bancorp, Inc. (HBCP) Seller: GS Financial Corp. (GSLA) Announcement: March 30,2011 Deal Value: 26.4 million Valuation: 95.4% of TBV 1-Day Market Premium: 21.7% 1-Month Market Premium: 82.6% Seller ROA: 0.2% Seller ROE: 1.4% Buyer Expectations: TBV Dilution: Minimal Earnings Accretion: 10% accretive to EPS when cost savings fully phased in by 2012 TBV Earn Back Period: N/A. Continued positive TBV growth, even during quarter in which transaction closed. Transaction Rationale: Expands Louisiana franchise via addition of GSLA’s presence into Orleans and Jefferson Parishes and leverages excess capital with a transaction priced below TBV. www.fjcapital.com 10
  • 11. Sector Performance Review The anemic U.S. economic recovery drove the smaller cap bank index down 4.04% in 2011, while the NASDAQ Bank Index was down 12.4%. In 2010, the banking sector experienced a rebound as the economic picture looked “less bad”. The higher returns were led by the larger cap banks, which advanced 11.4%, while the smaller cap banks were up 5.2%. The relentless negative headlines centered around mortgage abuses coupled with economic headwinds and regulatory pressures caused a major break in large cap bank stocks in 2011. Smaller community banks fared better as their equity prices have not materially advanced since the start of the economic downturn in 2007. The volatility in the sector continued, as most of the declines were registered in August and September of last year, with the NASDAQ Bank index down 19% in the two-month span. Smaller cap bank stocks experienced less volatility than their larger brethren in 2011, outperforming the bigger banks and money centers by more than 20%. We believe this return disparity is justified due to the current steeply discounted multiple of book value for small cap banks stocks and the resurgence of both actual M&A activity as well as projected activity over the next few years. We would also add that the economic conditions of the “survivors” of the past cycle are stronger now than in 2007, as many of the non-performing loans continue to work through the resolution process. For sure, many headwinds exist, including continued weak economic activity characterized by fits and starts, margin pressure as a result of Fed intervention, and a lack of revenue resulting from the below trend U.S. economic environment. As shown in the following chart, since Nov. 30, 2006, the average market multiple has drifted well below tangible book value, with the current median at only 70% of tangible book value. The index that tracks 1,000 public banks and thrifts has traded off nearly 70% during this time. Index SNL Bank & Thrift Index1 Index Total Return (1,000 companies with < $250 million Market Cap) P/TBV 1000% 300% 241% 250% 800% Down 3 69% 200% 600% FJ Starts 150% 400% 2/1/2008 100% 200% Historically low 50% valuation and prices 2, 0% 0% Dec-1994 Dec-1998 Dec-2002 Dec-2006 Dec-2010 Source: SNL Financial LC. 1 The historical chart-line reflects a market-weighted index. 2 The 12/31/2011 Micro-Cap (excluding MHCs) median valuation of 70% is based on an equal-weighted index. 3 Micro-cap banks fell 18% from the 3/23/07 peak through 2/1/2008, then fell 58% more through 11/25/2011 for total fall of 70%. www.fjcapital.com 11
  • 12. Industry Fundamentals The banking industry’s fundamentals have generally improved year-over-year (Y/Y). FDIC data shows that, despite 3.3% Y/Y industry asset growth, loans fell by 0.7%, a testament to an important challenge many banks face in growing earnings. In contrast, deposit growth has been very robust, up 9.9% Y/Y. Given the lack of lending opportunities, more deposits have been invested in securities, typically at lower yields than loans. The confluence of these trends can be seen in declining net interest margins (NIMs) in many recent earnings reports, although the below table, based on data from SNL Financial LC, shows marginal year-over-year improvement at the end of the recent September quarter. A significant aspect of the banking industry is a major bifurcation in the financial condition and performance of banks. In short, not all banks are equal, with many banks performing well or well-enough, and many other banks facing almost insurmountable challenges to manage problem loans, rising expenses and major growth headwinds. Select Banking Industry Metrics 9/30/2010 9/30/2011 9/30/2010 9/30/2011 9/30/2010 9/30/2011 Median Median Percentile: > 50 Percentile: > 50 Percentile:  < 50 Percentile:  < 50 ROAA (%)              0.48              0.61                           0.95                        1.03                          (0.81)                        (0.37) ROAE (%)              4.75              5.69                           9.61                      10.12                        (12.28)                        (6.93) Net Interest Margin (%)              3.71              3.75                           4.25                        4.30                            3.19                          3.26 TCE/TA (%)              8.57              8.84                        11.83                      12.06                            6.26                          6.33 Reserves/ Gross Loans (%)              1.71              1.80                           2.72                        2.78                            1.22                          1.28 NPAs/ Assets (%)              2.63              2.79                           1.25                        1.35                            6.06                          6.49 NCOs/ Avg Loans (%)              0.54              0.44                           0.15                        0.11                            2.32                          1.80 Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research The first two data columns of the above table highlight Y/Y comparisons of industry medians for select metrics. The third and fourth data columns highlight the Y/Y comparisons of the metric averages for the top half (50th to 100th percentile) of the metrics reported by all public banks (i.e., higher performers). The fifth and sixth data columns highlight the Y/Y comparisons of the metric averages for the bottom half (below 50th percentile) of the metrics reported by all public banks (i.e., lower performers). For instance, the top half of the banking industry is much more profitable than the bottom half, as the third quarter 2011 ROAA of the former is 1.03% and the ROAA of the latter is (0.37%). Comparisons made between the two sub-groups’ credit metrics and capital levels also demonstrate significant financial differences. Clearly, many banks are facing industry challenges much more successfully than others. On this front, size matters, and a rule of thumb used by many industry experts is that most banks eventually will need to be $1 billion in assets or greater in order to achieve the scale necessary to operate as an independent entity. Notably, non-interest income growth is currently anemic due in no small part to regulatory pressures against bank fees (i.e., Durban Amendment of Dodd Frank). Meanwhile, non-interest expense cuts can be achieved given the slower growth and improving credit trends, but this is tough for smaller banks that lack the asset base over which to spread rising regulatory costs. Cost cuts are more likely to come via M&A synergies. Looking forward, many banks will have too high a hurdle to clear in finding levers to pull that will achieve acceptable returns. This will drive a good number of these banks to the M&A alter. www.fjcapital.com 12
  • 13. Review of Merger Trends: 1990 to 2011 and Beyond As demonstrated below, consolidation is clearly the dominant trend in the bank sector, with the number of banks and thrifts dropping by about half, from almost 16,000 in 1989 to well below 8,000 today. Furthermore, based on the “new normal” operating environment, there could be a similar decline during the next five years. In short, we believe conditions exist for a substantial rebound in M&A that could equal or exceed 1994 peak levels. Number of U.S. Banks & Thrifts 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 6/30/1… 1990A 1991A 1992A 1993A 1994A 1995A 1996A 1997A 1998A 1999A 2000A 2001A 2002A 2003A 2004A 2005A 2006A 2007A 2008A 2009A 2010A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E 2020E 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 6/30/201 0 1 1 58 1 5,1 4,482 13,853 13,221 12,604 1 ,971 1 ,454 1 1 1 0,923 10,464 10,222 9,904 9,61 9,354 9,1 8,976 8,833 8,680 8,534 8,305 8,01 7,657 4 81 2 7,418 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 201 201 7 8 2019 2020 Sources: FDIC & FJ Capital Research 7,281 6,917 6,571 6,243 6,056 5,874 5,698 5,527 5,361 Data as of June 30, 2011 The above chart highlights the trends in bank transactions during the last 20 years, and our estimate of what they likely will look like going forward. The last major boom in M&A was the period from 1991 to 1998. After the 1990 to 1991 recession, which was particularly harmful to real estate lenders, there was a spike in consolidation activity as the economy began to show signs of improvement. Moreover, deals exploded to a peak of 526 transactions in 1994. Steady consolidation activity slowed considerably in 2000, however, as bank stock valuations took a back seat to the dot-com bubble and the resulting 2001 to 2003 recession. Thereafter, bank deals began to pick up until the recent financial crisis of 2007, the effects of which continue to plague bank balance sheets even today. The current recession is again centered on real estate and has crippled many companies in the sector. www.fjcapital.com 13
  • 14. Recent M&A Quotes from Industry Participants A December 2011 article in SNL Financial highlighted the inevitability of bank M&A. “Declines in lending and spreads, coupled with higher capital requirements, will over the next three to four years leave some 3,000 banks — the vast majority of them community banks — unable to generate a sig- nificant return on capital,” said Kamal Mustafa, Chairman of Invictus Consulting Group and a former Citigroup Inc. banker in charge of M&A. Moreover, a “massive wave of consolidation” is inevitable as small community banks pair up or sell to larger players in order to gain the size needed to compete with the big banks and, equally important, to “eliminate destructive competition” among smaller banks, Mustafa said. He added, “It has to happen. There’s been a paradigm shift across the board, and there’s no other way to make it. There are 7,500-plus banks now. In five years, 5,000 would be too many.” “It’s about scale. It’s about size. It’s about the ability to absorb the increase in operating costs in an environment that is difficult to grow your earnings,” “Revenue growth was becoming a challenge. As we forecast it out over the next couple of years, we feel that it is going to continue to be a challenge while costs are going to continue to increase,” said John Keach Jr., CEO of Indiana Community Ban- corp, which announced its sale to Old National Bancorp on Jan. 24, 2012. “There’s been a lot more engagement recently from banks, people really starting now to explore their options, starting to have serious discussions” about possible sales, said John Boulware, Managing Director at Community Capital Advisors. “And at some point, things will begin to snowball — M&A activity will beget more M&A activity.” "There's definitely something in the water," said Lee Bradley, Senior Managing Director at Commu- nity Capital Advisors. "There are more people looking to sell, and more buyers at least showing some interest." In an October SNL Financial article, Bradley said smaller banks — those with roughly $250 million in assets or less — are likely to account for the largest share of sellers, as such compa- nies with smaller bases over which to spread new expenses struggle the most to absorb rising compli- ance costs linked to the Dodd-Frank legislation. “The ability to reduce costs through consolidation is one of the few tools that bankers have to improve operating results, as the fundamental business drivers will likely stay soft and banks face heightened regulatory compliance costs,” said Tom Tullidge Jr., a Managing Director at Cary Street Partners LCC. “I know for a fact that a lot of thrifts are thinking hard about changing their charters to become a com- mercial bank…thrifts by regulation had to have 65% of their balance sheet in housing and housing- related assets. If we've learned any lesson it's that those levels of concentration don't make any sense and that the real future of community banking is in diversification. I do think it's on the mind of a lot of thrift executives and a lot of thrift boards — how do they find the right partner and what is the process they need to achieve a more diversified balance sheet.” — C.K. Lee, investment banker and former regulator “We think [banking consolidation] will occur in the next 24 to 30 months as a result of earnings pres- sure and the Fed’s flattening of the yield curve...” — Berry, CEO & President, Equity Development www.fjcapital.com 14
  • 15. Board Perspective and Consolidation Drivers The big question on the minds of bank management and directors is when is the right time to consider consolidation. Some sellers are pining and holding out for the peak pricing of previous cycles, while others recognize the challenges of the current environment and have decided to look for a partner. We believe peak pricing levels may be behind us as the economy has structural issues that will take an extended period to adjust. First, peak pricing was a result of a “hyper” economy driven by extreme levels of debt and irrational real estate gains. The hangover will last for some time and will be characterized by slower growth and higher-than- desired unemployment. Bear in mind that many banks have just been through one of the toughest recessions in memory and are dealing with the after effects, namely an extended low-rate environment that is pressuring revenue. Additionally, the pendulum of regulatory involvement has swung to the extreme with the final regulatory orders yet to be determined. So in addition to the past five years of economic weakness and financial meltdowns, they are faced with another three to five years of tepid growth, unnatural intervention by the Fed and a fight for well priced and solid credits to add to the loan portfolio. Why Banks Want/Need to Merge — 2011 Review Generally speaking, the same drivers that existed in the early 1990s exist today. However, there are new important drivers not present in 1994. For starters, there continue to be too many banks competing for the same marginal deposit and loan. Major consolidation factors include:  Cost Savings – The typical merger can save 20% to 40% in operating costs, thereby creating significant earnings accretion for the combined entity.  Lack of Loan Growth – Due to banking competition and the over saturation of banks, loan growth could be muted in even the best of times. This is especially true in the current economic environment, with large businesses hoarding record levels of cash and small businesses not seeing the end demand needed to make capital investment. In addition, many individuals and households are working to repair damaged balance sheets and de-lever.  Lack of Access to Capital Markets – Most small cap firms have limited access to the capital markets. Even if they have access, the punitive pricing commonplace in today’s market means this route may not be an economically viable capital raising option for many smaller banking institutions. Therefore, capital restraints will force banks to partner up.  Fairly Illiquid Trading – Most smaller cap banks tend to have fairly illiquid shares. The boards of such institutions will consider this as they deliberate on ways to increase shareholder value. Most institutional investors will not invest in companies they deem illiquid, tending to shy away from market caps under $500 million. This excludes most of the public banks and thrifts from receiving direct investments by institutional investors. www.fjcapital.com 15
  • 16.  Management/Board Fatigue – Sophisticated management and boards understand that a bank must have a valid business plan in place, one that includes either organic growth or growth via acquisition. We suspect many leaders find it difficult to execute their original business plans in the current economic environment. This recession has been particularly tough on banks focused on real estate lending. Therefore, we believe many banking leaders currently are weighing their M&A options.  Regulatory Reform – One recent factor is the Dodd-Frank legislation. The potential for change is yet to be fully processed by management teams and boards. It is clear the regulation will greatly increase operating costs and will reduce shareholder returns. In fact, new capital standards alone will make it much harder for companies to earn an acceptable return on equity to justify independence. Additionally, uncertainty surrounds the implementation of the new reform and the potential impact on generating acceptable returns. Impediments to M&A  Evolving Accounting Standards – The accounting for bank M&A has evolved from the favorable pooling of interest method (prior to 2001) to purchase accounting with new pronouncements, such as SFAS 141R, and other bulletins along the way. Pooling was favorable as it allowed the combination of assets and liabilities and did not create material goodwill. Under the current scheme, all transactions are now completed under purchase accounting. To complicate matters (or increase transparency, depending on your view) FASB introduced SFAS 141R along with several bulletins that, among other things, restrict transferring reserves over to the acquirer. These accounting rules, coupled with the credit marks assumed by the buyers, create issues for both buyers and sellers. The higher the credit mark (more conservative) the greater the goodwill, thus reducing the potential price a buyer can/will pay. We suspect the accounting treatment and the credit marks have had the effect of slowing consolidation. As the economy improves and loan books are more easily valued, the credit marks should moderate, paving the way for lower goodwill charges and higher multiples.  Regulatory and Legal Uncertainty - The process of approving transactions has appeared to slow somewhat as the agencies consolidate their base and turn their attention to writing new rules mandated by Dodd-Frank legislation. For companies with thin capital bases or credit quality issues, winning the approval of regulators will be more challenging than in the past. It is not to say that regulators have failed to look at these variables in the past, but rather more attention is given today as capital rules are yet to be written. On the legal front, it seems every transaction has some type of legal/investigation attached to it. While most of these suits are not grounded in strong logic, nonetheless it is one more consideration to pulling the trigger on an M&A transaction.  Bank Stock Valuations – Arguably one of the most important factors in bank M&A is pricing. One of the factors that limit the potential valuation a buyer can pay is its own currency. Bank stocks have been under considerable pressure over the last several years, reacting both to the financial crisis and the ensuing great recession, events that historically have been especially hard on bank stock valuations. For the most part, valuations have not recovered – since the start www.fjcapital.com 16
  • 17. of the economic downturn, the SNL Bank and Thrift index is down 62.3%, while the smaller banks are down 60%. The largest banks in the country, with market caps greater than $10 billion, are down 81% from their peak. In addition, the industry median price-to-book value has declined from approximately 174% at the end of 2006 to 75% at present. Conversely, sellers may be holding out for better times when they could fetch 2.5 to 3 times book value. You can see with the value destruction caused in the market that seller expectations are too high. The bid/ask spread needs to adjust as equities have adjusted over the last several years.  Establishing the Right Credit Mark – The wide bid/ask spread between buyers and sellers is in part driven by what the credit mark should be. While sellers have put aside reserves (which now cannot be transferred under FASB 141r), buyers take a fresh look and re-mark the portfolio based on their own set of assumptions. Buyers will take a conservative approach to make sure they identified all the impairments and mark them accordingly. Sellers either believe their marks are appropriate for the risk or they are in denial about the real mark to mark value of their loan books. We believe the answer falls somewhere in the middle. Nonetheless, this is a major impediment when delivering a price that the seller can accept.  Social Issues – The social issues are an important consideration when discussing potential mergers and acquisitions. The phrase most often used in this sector is “banks are sold not bought,” which refers to the fact that boards and managements make the decision to sell rather than reacting to either a hostile situation or overtures from other banks. That is not to say that good bank managers are not talking all the time to potential sellers, rather that the ultimate decision to pull the trigger resides with the board and/or management. It is difficult to handicap this, as many management teams are entrenched and happy to have a job even as their institutions are producing an insufficient ROE for shareholders. In fact, there are many undercapitalized and underperforming banks that clearly are not acting in the best interests of their shareholders. Most bank board members are successful business people in their own rights, yet are often guided by managers that are not always aligned with shareholders. We strongly suspect that as more bank boards realize that the industry will not move back to peak profitability or peak pricing, more will decide to find a partner. www.fjcapital.com 17
  • 18. The Banking Landscape # of Institutions Assets ($ Billions) Total Industry Banks & Thrifts 7,040 100% 18,460 100% Private 5,799 82% 2,512 14% Public 1,241 18% 15,948 86% # of Institutions Assets ($ Billions) Public Banks & Thrifts 1,241 100% 15,948 100% Public Banks 992 80% 15,317 96% Public Thrifts 249 20% 632 4% # of Institutions Assets ($ Billions) Public Thrifts 249 100% 632 100% Fully Public 196 79% 593 94% MHCs 53 21% 39 6% Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of January 2, 2012 The above chart illustrates the landscape of private and public U.S. banking institutions. A review of the opportunity set shows that the majority of banks are small community banks with assets of less than $500 million. Of that, roughly 1,100 are publicly traded companies with market caps below $250 million, and a combined $85 billion capitalization (table on p. 19). U.S. Banking System Composition Number of Banks by Asset Size 6,000 5,714 4,000 2,000 646 400 76 154 0 $0 to $500 Mil $500 Mil to $1 Bil $1 Bil to $3 Bil $3 Bil to 5 Bil $5+ Bil Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of January 2, 2012 www.fjcapital.com 18
  • 19. Summary of Potential Market Opportunity SNL Micro-Cap Bank & Thrift Index 993 Companies with: --A Median Market Cap of $ 20.6 Million --An Average Market Cap of $ 39.3 Million --For a Total Index Market Cap of $ 39.0 Billion SNL Small-Cap Bank & Thrift Index 98 Companies with: --A Median Market Cap of $ 426.2 Million --An Average Market Cap of $ 474.0 Million --For a Total Index Market Cap of $ 46.5 Billion SNL Micro-Cap and Small Cap Bank & Thrift Indices 1,091 Companies with: --A Median Market Cap of $ 25.0 Million --An Average Market Cap of $ 78.3 Million --For a Total Index Market Cap of $ 85.5 Billion Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of February 3, 2012 As noted below, nearly 764 companies are trading at less than book value, reflecting investor appetite for liquidity coupled with the current economic environment and company-specific issues. As previously stated, new capital requirements and banks’ lack of access to the public markets, will contribute significantly to the increase in consolidation. As the below chart shows, 413 companies or 54% of the public banks trading below tangible book value, are experiencing substandard capital levels and/or elevated asset quality issues. Public Banks: Current Valuation and Credit Summary Public Banks 1,180 100.0% P/TBV >= 100% as of close on 2/3/2012 352 29.8% P/TBV < 100% as of close on 2/3/2012 764 64.7% P/TBV is not available or not meaningful 64 5.4% P/TBV < 100% 764 100.0% TCE > 6% AND NPAs/Assets < or = 4% 472 61.8% TCE > 6% 990 129.6% NPAs <= 4% 747 97.8% TCE < 6% AND NPAs/Assets > or = 4% 122 16.0% TCE < 6% 179 23.4% NPAs >= 4% 413 54.1% No TCE data available 11 1.4% No NPA data available 20 2.6% Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of February 3, 2012 www.fjcapital.com 19
  • 20. Update on FDIC-Assisted Transactions The financial crisis of late 2007 sparked a resurgence in bank failures. As shown below, the real estate bust led to an unprecedented number of failures in the early 1990s. The trough phase of the most recent cycle has seen some very large institutions fail, yet the absolute number of failures remains well below the peak created in the prior real estate crash. Companies with strong balance sheets have taken advantage of this cycle to prudently grow their franchises. Often, multiple bidders try to grow their franchises with the help of government stop-loss guarantees. The below chart shows that while the U.S. economic recovery still has a long way to go, the pace of FDIC-assisted transactions has slowed, coupled with much more competitive pricing. Number of FDIC Assisted Deals (1990-2011) 555 485 279 194 147 118 115 90 22 25 9 2 3 8 8 5 7 3 3 3 0 0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sources: SNL Financial LC & FJ Capital Research Data as of January 13, 2012 In the second half of 2010, Sheila Bair, former head of the FDIC, highlighted that there were 829 banks on the FDIC’s “Problem List” at June 30, 2010. She also declared the market near a peak in failures and said that this cycle will produce far less bank failures than the mid 1990s cycle. At September 30, 2011, the number of problem banks was 844, down 5% from the recent high of 888 banks at March 31, 2011. Based on FJ Capital’s research and SNL Financial LC data, we count 415 banks with Texas ratios [nonperforming assets/(tangible common equity + loan loss reserves)] greater than 100 percent, a typical sign of potential failure. The five states with the highest numbers of banks with Texas ratios above 100% are: Georgia (63 banks), Florida (43 banks), Illinois (42 banks), Minnesota (29 banks) and Missouri (23 banks). www.fjcapital.com 20
  • 21. About FJ Capital Management, LLC This paper was written by FJ Capital Management Co-Founder, Managing Member and CIO, Martin Friedman, and FJ Capital Management Managing Director, Scott Cottrell, who have a combined 35-plus years of capital markets experience, much of this time spent following and analyzing small- and mid- capitalization financial institutions. A special thanks goes out to Mutian Yang, who helped significantly in data collection and presentation. Prior to founding FJ Capital in 2007, Mr. Friedman served nine years as director of research at Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, a major financial services firm publicly traded on the New York Stock Exchange, where he built the 13th largest U.S. sell side research organization, with 140 professionals encompassing eight industry sectors. Previously, Mr. Friedman was a senior research analyst focused on the financial services industry covering small- and mid- cap banks and thrifts. Mr. Friedman has been analyzing and investing in this sector for over 20 years. Mr. Friedman currently serves on the board of Access National Bank (ANCX), an $800 million asset community bank headquartered in Reston, VA. Prior to joining FJ Capital, Mr. Cottrell served as a research analyst at FBR covering small- and mid- cap banks and thrifts. Mr. Cottrell has approximately 15 years of banking industry experience for firms that include Wells Fargo, National City Bank and Servus Financial Corp. He is a CPA and earned his MBA from Georgetown University. FJ Capital Management is a fundamentally driven investment management firm founded in 2007 that analyzes and invests in publicly traded U.S. community and regional banks through alternative strategies. The firm utilizes proprietary fundamental research to uncover value disparities in the small- and mid-cap bank sector and seeks to take advantage of these disparities by building core positions with longer term holding periods. The firm also seeks to generate attractive, risk-adjusted investment returns by uncovering opportunities with identifiable, near- term catalysts. For more on FJ Capital or to further explore opportunities in the bank sector, please visit www.fjcapital.com or contact: Andrew Jose FJ Capital Management O: 703.875.8378 1313 Dolley Madison Blvd., M: 703.408.0394 Suite 306 ajose@fjcapital.com McLean, VA 22101 www.fjcapital.com Important Disclosures: This White Paper is provided for informational purposes only, does not constitute investment advice and should not be relied upon as such. It is neither an advertisement for investment advisory services nor an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The information presented in this White Paper has been developed internally and/or obtained from resources believed to be reliable; however, FJ Capital Management does not guarantee the accuracy, adequacy or completeness of such information. References to securities or asset classes do not constitute recommendations to purchase or sell any specific securities or asset classes. www.fjcapital.com 21