The Bank of Canada is expected to keep the overnight rate target at 1.25%, though arguments for a hike include rising trend inflation and easing U.S.-China trade tensions. However, concerns such as slow household credit growth and political turmoil in Italy suggest a delay in rate increases, with the next anticipated hike potentially on July 11th. The upcoming real GDP report is expected to show disappointing growth, influenced by weak consumer spending and housing activity.

1.
Bank of Canada Decision and Real GDP – Preview
We expect a very close call for the monetary policy decision on Wednesday, with the Bank of Canada (BoC) leaving
the overnight rate target unchanged at 1.25%.
Making the case for a hike could be supported by recent developments: 1-trend inflation in Canada rose lately with
two of three core CPI measures running at 2.1% in April, further reducing the inflation-adjusted policy rate in negative
territory (see chart below); 2-WTI crude oil prices stand above the US$60 per barrel price incorporated in the BoC’s
April MPR; 3- U.S.-China trade tensions eased; 4-there are growing signs of robust and persistent wage growth for
Canadians.
This being said, there are key arguments favoring the delay of the next hike: 1-the May deadline miss for a NAFTA
deal in a context of declining market share of Canadian exports in the U.S.; 2-the on-going cooling in household
credit growth, consumer expenditures and home prices; 3-a tightening in domestic financial conditions coming from
abroad, led by U.S. bond yields; 4-CPI inflation remains within the BoC’s tolerance zone despite running slightly
higher; 5- political turmoil in Italy is bringing back anti-euro concerns in financial markets.
Also, we expect a third consecutive quarter of soft economic growth in the Canadian real GDP report to be released
on Thursday morning. Our call stands at 1.5% q/q saar for 2018Q1 (consensus at 1.9%), close to the 1.3% projected
in the BoC’s April MPR. The details of the report are likely to be disappointing, led by slower growth of consumer
expenditures, a pullback in housing activity after B20 rules pulled forward demand in late 2017 (see chart below) and
weakening net exports. Government spending and strong inventory accumulation will likely have contributed
significantly to real GDP growth.
Bottom Line: Given the transparent cautious hiking bias present at the end of previous BoC statements, it should
not be a major surprise for financial markets if the BoC ends up increasing its policy rate by 25 basis points on
Wednesday. This being said, in our view, the latest global and domestic economic developments are not sufficiently
favorable in order to hike on May 30th. We continue to see the next policy rate increase on July 11th.
Sébastien Lavoie | Chief Economist, 514 350-2931 | lavoies@vmbl.ca

2. Economic Research and Strategy
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without in each case the prior express written consent of Laurentian Bank Securities.
Source: Bank of Canada/Haver Analytics
Inflation-Adjusted Policy Rate
(Overnight rate minus core CPI inflation)
BoC Overnight Rate Target
(%)
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
-1.5
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