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HPS2-THRIVE: Randomized placebo-controlled trial
of ER niacin and laropiprant in 25,673 patients
with pre-existing cardiovascular disease.
Jane Armitage on behalf of the
HPS2-THRIVE Collaborative Group
Financial Disclosure: Grant to Oxford University. Designed,
conducted and analysed independently of the grant source
(Merck & Co). No honoraria or consultancy fees accepted.
HPS2-THRIVE: Eligibility
Men and women
Aged 50-80 years
Prior history of: myocardial infarction;
ischaemic stroke or TIA;
peripheral arterial disease; or
diabetes with other CHD
No contra-indication to study treatments
No significant liver, kidney or muscle disease
HPS2-THRIVE: Active pre-randomization run-in
Screened
(51,698)
Randomization
(25,673)
ER niacin 2g plus laropiprant 40 mg daily
vs. matching placebo tablets
Active ER niacin
plus laropiprant
(38,369)
Test compliance with ER niacin 2 grams plus
laropiprant 40 mg (ERN/LRPT) daily for 1 month
Standardise background LDL-lowering therapy
with simvastatin 40 mg (+/- ezetimibe) daily
(to total cholesterol target of 135 mg/dL)
LDL lowering phase
(36,059)
High cardiovascular risk patients screened
in 245 sites within 6 countries
Characteristics of randomized participants
% or mean (SD)
ERN/LRPT
(12,838)
Placebo
(12,835)
All
Men 83% 83% 21,229 (83%)
Age (years) 64.9 64.9 64.9 (7.5)
Prior disease
Coronary 78% 78% 20,137 (78%)
Cerebrovascular 32% 32% 8170 (32%)
Peripheral arterial 13% 12% 3214 (13%)
Diabetes 32% 32% 8299 (32%)
Baseline LIPIDS on statin-based therapy
Mean (SD) baseline
mg/dL mmol/L
Total cholesterol 128 (22) 3.32 (0.57)
Direct-LDL 63 (17) 1.64 (0.44)
HDL 44 (11) 1.14 (0.29)
Triglycerides* 125 (74) 1.43 (0.84)
*64% fasted for >8 hours
Reasons for stopping study treatment
ERN/LRPT
(12,838)
Placebo
(12,835)
Excess
Any medical 16.4% 7.9% 8.5%
Skin 5.4% 1.2% 4.2%
Gastrointestinal 3.9% 1.7% 2.1%
Musculoskeletal 1.8% 1.0% 0.8%
Diabetes-related 0.9% 0.4% 0.5%
Liver 0.4% 0.3% 0.1%
Other 4.1% 3.3% 0.8%
Any non-medical 8.9% 8.7% 0.3%
Any reason 25.4% 16.6% 8.7%
78% average compliance with active ERN/LRPT
Effect of ERN/LRPT on SERIOUS adverse events
(median follow-up 3.9 years)
0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Skin
Bleeding
Heart failure
Musculoskeletal
Gastrointestinal
Infection
New onset diabetes
Diabetic complication
Active
Placebo
Percentage of patients
Excess p value
3.7% <0.0001
1.8% <0.0001
1.4% <0.0001
1.0% <0.0001
0.7% 0.0008
0.4% 0.05
0.7% 0.0002
0.3% 0.0026
ERN/LRPT
Effect of ERN/LRPT on glucose related SAEs
Risk ratio (95% CI)
1.55 (1.32-1.82)
3.09 (1.81-5.27)
1.50 (0.96-2.35)
0.93 (0.62-1.40)
1.55 (1.34-1.78)
Serious adverse event PlaceboERN/LRPT
Participants with diabetes at randomization (n= 8299)
Minor hyperglycaemic problem 8.7% 5.8%
Major hyperglycaemic problem 1.0% 0.3%
Hypoglycaemia 1.1% 0.7%
Other diabetic complication 1.1% 1.2%
Any diabetic complication 460
(11.1%)
311
(7.5%)
1.27 (1.14-1.41)
Participants without diabetes at randomization (n= 17,374)
New-onset diabetes mellitus 792
(9.1%)
632
(7.3%)
Effect of ERN/LRPT on GI, muscle and skin SAEs
Serious Adverse Event Risk ratio (95% CI)PlaceboERN/LRPT
(12,835)(12,838)
Gastrointestinal
GI bleeding 0.8% 0.6% 1.53 (1.14-2.05)
Peptic ulcer/upper GI 1.9% 1.4% 1.37 (1.13-1.65)
Lower GI 0.9% 0.7% 1.39 (1.06-1.83)
Other GI 1.0% 1.0% 0.99 (0.77-1.27)
Any gastrointestinal SAE 620
(4.8%)
491
(3.8%)
1.28 (1.13-1.44)
Musculoskeletal
Myopathy 0.6% 0.1% 4.43 (2.62-7.50)
Gout 0.3% 0.2% 1.91 (1.16-3.15)
Other 2.9% 2.7% 1.08 (0.93-1.25)
Any musculoskeletal SAE 481
(3.7%)
385
(3.0%)
1.26 (1.10-1.44)
Skin
Rash 0.4% 0.3% 1.63 (1.07-2.48)
Ulcer 0.2% 0.1% 1.61 (0.82-3.14)
Other 0.1% 0.0% 2.59 (1.05-6.37)
Any skin SAE 86
(0.7%)
51
(0.4%)
1.67 (1.20-2.34)
Effect of ERN/LRPT on infection and bleeding
Serious Adverse Event Risk ratio (95% CI)PlaceboERN/LRPT
(12,835)(12,838)
Infection
Lower respiratory 4.3% 3.7% 1.17 (1.03-1.32)
Urinary tract 0.9% 0.8% 1.07 (0.82-1.39)
Abdominal/gastrointestinal 0.6% 0.5% 1.26 (0.91-1.75)
Skin 0.5% 0.3% 1.66 (1.14-2.43)
Other 2.4% 1.7% 1.38 (1.16-1.63)
Any infection SAE 1031
(8.0%)
853
(6.6%)
1.22 (1.12-1.34)
Bleeding
Gastrointestinal 0.8% 0.6% 1.53 (1.14-2.05)
Intracranial 1.1% 0.9% 1.17 (0.92-1.50)
Other 0.6% 0.4% 1.66 (1.18-2.34)
Any bleeding SAE 326
(2.5%)
238
(1.9%)
1.38 (1.17-1.62)
Primary outcome: MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS (MVE)
Defined as the first occurrence of either:
• MAJOR CORONARY EVENT = Non-fatal MI or coronary death;
• STROKE = Any non-fatal or fatal stroke (including subarachnoid
haemorrhage); or
• REVASCULARIZATION = Coronary or non-coronary artery surgery
or angioplasty (including amputation)
Secondary outcomes:
• Separate components of the primary outcome
• MVE in patients with or without coronary heart disease,
cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease and diabetes
• Mortality, overall and by specific causes of death
Prespecified efficacy outcomes
Effects of ER niacin/laropiprant on lipids
Year of FU LDL-C
(mg/dL)
HDL-C
(mg/dL)
Triglycerides
(mg/dL)
1 -12 6 -35
4 -7 6 -31
STUDY AVERAGE -10 6 -33
(mmol/L) (-0.25) (0.16) -0.37
“Based on previous observational studies and randomized
trials, it was anticipated such lipid differences might
translate into a 10-15% reduction in vascular events”
Eur Heart Journal 2013
Statistical power after about 4 years
Proportional
reduction in risk
Statistical power at 2p:
<0.05 <0.01
8% 67% 43%
9% 78% 56%
10% 86% 68%
12% 96% 87%
Based on estimated 3200 MVEs during median follow-up of 4 years
Effect of ERN/LRPT on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS
0 1 2 3 4
Years of follow-up
0
5
10
15
20
Patientssufferingevents(%)
15.0%
14.5%
Placebo
ERN/LRPT
Logrank P=0.29
Risk ratio 0.96 (95% CI 0.90 – 1.03)
Effect of ERN/LRPT on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS
Randomized allocation
Risk ratio & 95% CIEvent pPlaceboERN/LRPT
(12835)(12838)
Non-fatal MI 402 (3.1%) 431 (3.4%) 0.93 (0.82-1.07) 0.33
Coronary death 302 (2.4%) 291 (2.3%) 1.04 (0.89-1.22) 0.63
Major coronary event 668 (5.2%) 694 (5.4%) 0.96 (0.87-1.07) 0.51
Ischaemic stroke 389 (3.0%) 415 (3.2%) 0.94 (0.82-1.08) 0.37
Haemorrhagic stroke 114 (0.9%) 89 (0.7%) 1.28 (0.97-1.69) 0.08
Any stroke 498 (3.9%) 499 (3.9%) 1.00 (0.88-1.13) 0.56
Coronary revasc 591 (4.6%) 664 (5.2%) 0.89 (0.80-0.99) 0.04
Non-coronary revasc 236 (1.8%) 258 (2.0%) 0.92 (0.77-1.09) 0.33
Any revascularization 807 (6.3%) 897 (7.0%) 0.90 (0.82-0.99) 0.03
Major vascular event 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 0.96 (0.90-1.03) 0.29
1.0 1.20.8
ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
MVE by age, sex, region and statin-based therapy
Randomized allocation Risk ratio & 95% CI Het or trend χ²
(uncorrected p value)PlaceboERN/LRPT
(12,835)(12,838)Age (years)
< 65 740 (11.4%) 786 (12.2%) 0.00
(p=0.98)≥ 65 <70 392 (13.9%) 367 (13.1%)
≥ 70 564 (15.9%) 605 (17.0%)
Sex
Male 1397 (13.2%) 1485 (14.0%) 3.21
(p=0.07)Female 299 (13.4%) 273 (12.3%)
Region
Europe 832 (11.3%) 913 (12.4%) 3.61
(p=0.06)China 864 (15.8%) 845 (15.5%)
Statin-based therapy
Simvastatin 40mg 945 (14.0%) 949 (14.0%) 1.28
(p=0.26)Ezetimibe/simvastatin 751 (12.4%) 809 (13.3%)
All 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3
reduction
1.0 1.20.8
ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
Lipid differences (mg/dL) by age, sex, region
and statin-based therapy
Patients LDL-C HDL-C
Age (years)
<65 12,932 -10 5
≥65 <70 5624 -11 7
≥70 7117 -8 7
Sex
Male 21,229 -10 6
Female 4444 -8 7
Region
Europe 14,741 -12 7
China 10,932 -7 5
Statin-based therapy
Simvastatin 40mg 13,542 -8 6
Ezetimibe/simvastatin 12,131 -12 7
All 25,673 -10 6
MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS by prior disease
Randomized allocation
Risk ratio & 95% CI
Het or trend χ²
(uncorrected p value)PlaceboERN/LRPT
(12,835)(12,838)
Coronary heart disease
Yes 1361 (13.5%) 1413 (14.0%) 0.00
(p=0.96)No 335 (12.1%) 345 (12.5%)
Cerebrovascular disease
Yes 616 (15.2%) 656 (16.0%) 0.10
(p=0.75)No 1080 (12.3%) 1102 (12.6%)
Peripheral arterial disease
Yes 302 (18.6%) 332 (20.9%) 1.66
(p=0.20)No 1394 (12.4%) 1426 (12.7%)
Diabetes mellitus
Yes 678 (16.4%) 708 (17.0%) 0.00
(p=0.98)No 1018 (11.7%) 1050 (12.1%)
All 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3
reduction
1.0 1.20.8
ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
Lipid differences (mg/dL) by prior disease
Patients LDL-C HDL-C
Coronary heart disease
Yes 20,137 -10 6
No 5536 -10 7
Cerebrovascular disease
Yes 8170 -9 6
No 17,503 -10 7
Peripheral arterial disease
Yes 3214 -11 7
No 22,459 -9 6
Diabetes mellitus
Yes 8299 -8 7
No 17,374 -10 6
All 25,673 -10 6
MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS by baseline lipids
Randomized allocation
Risk ratio & 95% CI
Het or trend Χ²
(uncorrected p value)PlaceboERN/LRPT
(12835)(12838)
HDL cholesterol
<35 (0.9) 388 (15.8%) 399 (16.3%) 0.20
(p=0.66)≥35 <43 560 (13.7%) 546 (13.5%)
≥43 (1.1) 748 (11.9%) 813 (12.8%)
LDL cholesterol
<58 (1.5) 724 (14.7%) 679 (13.8%) 5.91
(p=0.02)≥58 <77 685 (12.4%) 761 (13.7%)
≥77 (2.0) 287 (12.0%) 318 (13.5%)
All 1696 (13.2%)1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3
reduction
1.0 1.20.8
ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
mg/dL (mmol/L)
Triglycerides
<89 (1.0) 541(13.2%) 563 (13.4%) 0.66
(p=0.42)≥89 <151 694(12.8%) 712 (13.2%)
≥151 (1.7) 461(13.9%) 483 (14.8%)
Lipid differences (mg/dL) by baseline lipids
mg/dL (mmol/L) Patients LDL-C HDL-C
HDL cholesterol
<35 (0.9) 4900 -7 5
≥35 <43 8135 -9 6
≥43 (1.1) 12,638 -11 7
LDL cholesterol
<58 (1.5) 9860 -7 6
≥58 <77 11,054 -10 6
≥77 (2.0) 4759 -15 7
Triglycerides
<89 (1.0) 8297 -9 6
≥89 <151 10,801 -10 6
≥151 (1.7) 6575 -10 6
All 25,673 -10 6
Effect of ERN/LRPT on CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY
Randomized allocation
Risk ratio & 95% CI pPlaceboERN/LRPT
(12835)(12838)
Coronary 302 (2.4%) 291 (2.3%)
Other cardiac 15 (0.1%) 15 (0.1%)
Stroke 88 (0.7%) 70 (0.5%)
Other vascular 43 (0.3%) 35 (0.3%)
Vascular 448 (3.5%) 411 (3.2%) 1.09 (0.96-1.25) 0.19
Neoplastic 206 (1.6%) 206 (1.6%)
Hepatic 3 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%)
Other medical 106 (0.8%) 92 (0.7%)
Non-medical 16 (0.1%) 12 (0.1%)
Unknown 19 (0.1%) 11 (0.1%)
Non-vascular 350 (2.7%) 321 (2.5%) 1.09 (0.94-1.27) 0.25
Any cause 798 (6.2%) 732 (5.7%) 1.09 (0.99-1.21) 0.08
1.0 1.20.8
ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
HPS2-THRIVE: SUMMARY
• Significant excesses of serious adverse events (SAEs) due to
known and unrecognised side-effects of niacin. Over 4 years,
ER niacin/laropiprant caused SAEs in ~30 patients per 1000
• No significant benefit of ER niacin/laropiprant on the primary
outcome of major vascular events when added to effective
statin-based LDL-lowering therapy
• No clear evidence of differences in efficacy or safety in
different types of patient (except for an excess of statin-
related myopathy in Chinese patients)
• Findings are consistent with previous niacin trials. The role of
ER niacin for the treatment and prevention of cardiovascular
disease needs to be reconsidered
European Medicine Agency announces
review of niacin based on HPS2-THRIVE
“....assess the impact of the new
data on the benefit-risk balance of
these medicines, and will issue an
opinion on whether the marketing
authorisation should be maintained,
varied, suspended or withdrawn
across the EU.”
March 2013
www.ctsu.ox.ac.uk/thrive
Back up slides
Effect of ERN/LRPT on SITE SPECIFIC
CANCER INCIDENCE
Randomized allocation
Risk ratio & 95% CI pPlaceboERN/LRPT
(n=12835)(n=12838)
Gastrointestinal 113 (0.9%) 132 (1.0%)
Respiratory 140 (1.1%) 126 (1.0%)
Breast (females only) 27 (1.2%) 21 (0.9%)
Melanoma 23 (0.2%) 24 (0.2%)
Genitourinary 208 (1.6%) 203 (1.6%)
Haematological 40 (0.3%) 33 (0.3%)
Other/non-specified 88 (0.7%) 86 (0.7%)
Any cancer* 622 (4.8%) 609 (4.7%) 1.02 (0.92-1.15) 0.67
Non-melanoma skin 128 (1.0%) 136 (1.1%)
Recurrence of pre-rand
cancer
5 (0.0%) 7 (0.1%)
1.0 1.20.8
ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
* Excluding non-melanoma skin cancer.
MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS by
low HDL/high triglycerides and prior statin use
Randomized allocation
Risk ratio & 95% CI
Het or trend χ²
(uncorrected p value)PlaceboERN/LRPT
(12835)(12838)
Low HDL-C, high triglycerides
Yes 333 (15.1%) 334 (15.5%) 0.00
(p=0.95)No 1363 (12.8%) 1424 (13.3%)
Prior statin use (years)
None 522 (16.9%) 520 (16.8%) 2.88
(p=0.09)>0 <3 478 (11.7%) 467 (11.5%)
≥3 <6 291 (10.9%) 316 (11.8%)
≥ 6 405 (13.5%) 455 (15.2%)
All 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3
reduction
1.0 1.20.8
ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS by baseline lipids
Risk ratio & 95% CI Het or trend χ²
(uncorrected p value)
PlaceboERN/LRPT
(12,835)(12,838)
HDL cholesterol (mmol/L)
<0.9 388 (15.8%) 399 (16.3%) 0.20
(p=0.66)≥ 0.9 <1.1 560 (13.7%) 546 (13.5%)
≥ 1.1 748 (11.9%) 813 (12.8%)
LDL cholesterol (mmol/L)
<1.5 724 (14.7%) 679 (13.8%) 5.91
(p=0.02)≥1.5 <2.0 685 (12.4%) 761 (13.7%)
≥ 2.0 287 (12.0%) 318 (13.5%)
HDL-C change during run-in (mmol/L)
<0.09 528 (13.0%) 592 (14.7%) 3.58
(p=0.06)≥ 0.09 <0.24 574 (13.3%) 565 (13.3%)
≥ 0.24 594 (13.3%) 601 (13.2%)
LDL-C change during run-in (mmol/L)
<0.25 587 (14.0%) 609 (14.2%) 0.03
(p=0.86)≥ 0.25 <0.53 564 (12.7%) 597 (13.4%)
≥ 0.53 545 (12.9%) 552 (13.4%)
All 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3
reduction
1.0 1.20.8ERN/LRPT better Placebo better

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THRIVE: La niacina / laropiprant de liberación prolongada. Beneficio cardiovascular.

  • 1. HPS2-THRIVE: Randomized placebo-controlled trial of ER niacin and laropiprant in 25,673 patients with pre-existing cardiovascular disease. Jane Armitage on behalf of the HPS2-THRIVE Collaborative Group Financial Disclosure: Grant to Oxford University. Designed, conducted and analysed independently of the grant source (Merck & Co). No honoraria or consultancy fees accepted.
  • 2. HPS2-THRIVE: Eligibility Men and women Aged 50-80 years Prior history of: myocardial infarction; ischaemic stroke or TIA; peripheral arterial disease; or diabetes with other CHD No contra-indication to study treatments No significant liver, kidney or muscle disease
  • 3. HPS2-THRIVE: Active pre-randomization run-in Screened (51,698) Randomization (25,673) ER niacin 2g plus laropiprant 40 mg daily vs. matching placebo tablets Active ER niacin plus laropiprant (38,369) Test compliance with ER niacin 2 grams plus laropiprant 40 mg (ERN/LRPT) daily for 1 month Standardise background LDL-lowering therapy with simvastatin 40 mg (+/- ezetimibe) daily (to total cholesterol target of 135 mg/dL) LDL lowering phase (36,059) High cardiovascular risk patients screened in 245 sites within 6 countries
  • 4. Characteristics of randomized participants % or mean (SD) ERN/LRPT (12,838) Placebo (12,835) All Men 83% 83% 21,229 (83%) Age (years) 64.9 64.9 64.9 (7.5) Prior disease Coronary 78% 78% 20,137 (78%) Cerebrovascular 32% 32% 8170 (32%) Peripheral arterial 13% 12% 3214 (13%) Diabetes 32% 32% 8299 (32%)
  • 5. Baseline LIPIDS on statin-based therapy Mean (SD) baseline mg/dL mmol/L Total cholesterol 128 (22) 3.32 (0.57) Direct-LDL 63 (17) 1.64 (0.44) HDL 44 (11) 1.14 (0.29) Triglycerides* 125 (74) 1.43 (0.84) *64% fasted for >8 hours
  • 6. Reasons for stopping study treatment ERN/LRPT (12,838) Placebo (12,835) Excess Any medical 16.4% 7.9% 8.5% Skin 5.4% 1.2% 4.2% Gastrointestinal 3.9% 1.7% 2.1% Musculoskeletal 1.8% 1.0% 0.8% Diabetes-related 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% Liver 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Other 4.1% 3.3% 0.8% Any non-medical 8.9% 8.7% 0.3% Any reason 25.4% 16.6% 8.7% 78% average compliance with active ERN/LRPT
  • 7. Effect of ERN/LRPT on SERIOUS adverse events (median follow-up 3.9 years) 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 Skin Bleeding Heart failure Musculoskeletal Gastrointestinal Infection New onset diabetes Diabetic complication Active Placebo Percentage of patients Excess p value 3.7% <0.0001 1.8% <0.0001 1.4% <0.0001 1.0% <0.0001 0.7% 0.0008 0.4% 0.05 0.7% 0.0002 0.3% 0.0026 ERN/LRPT
  • 8. Effect of ERN/LRPT on glucose related SAEs Risk ratio (95% CI) 1.55 (1.32-1.82) 3.09 (1.81-5.27) 1.50 (0.96-2.35) 0.93 (0.62-1.40) 1.55 (1.34-1.78) Serious adverse event PlaceboERN/LRPT Participants with diabetes at randomization (n= 8299) Minor hyperglycaemic problem 8.7% 5.8% Major hyperglycaemic problem 1.0% 0.3% Hypoglycaemia 1.1% 0.7% Other diabetic complication 1.1% 1.2% Any diabetic complication 460 (11.1%) 311 (7.5%) 1.27 (1.14-1.41) Participants without diabetes at randomization (n= 17,374) New-onset diabetes mellitus 792 (9.1%) 632 (7.3%)
  • 9. Effect of ERN/LRPT on GI, muscle and skin SAEs Serious Adverse Event Risk ratio (95% CI)PlaceboERN/LRPT (12,835)(12,838) Gastrointestinal GI bleeding 0.8% 0.6% 1.53 (1.14-2.05) Peptic ulcer/upper GI 1.9% 1.4% 1.37 (1.13-1.65) Lower GI 0.9% 0.7% 1.39 (1.06-1.83) Other GI 1.0% 1.0% 0.99 (0.77-1.27) Any gastrointestinal SAE 620 (4.8%) 491 (3.8%) 1.28 (1.13-1.44) Musculoskeletal Myopathy 0.6% 0.1% 4.43 (2.62-7.50) Gout 0.3% 0.2% 1.91 (1.16-3.15) Other 2.9% 2.7% 1.08 (0.93-1.25) Any musculoskeletal SAE 481 (3.7%) 385 (3.0%) 1.26 (1.10-1.44) Skin Rash 0.4% 0.3% 1.63 (1.07-2.48) Ulcer 0.2% 0.1% 1.61 (0.82-3.14) Other 0.1% 0.0% 2.59 (1.05-6.37) Any skin SAE 86 (0.7%) 51 (0.4%) 1.67 (1.20-2.34)
  • 10. Effect of ERN/LRPT on infection and bleeding Serious Adverse Event Risk ratio (95% CI)PlaceboERN/LRPT (12,835)(12,838) Infection Lower respiratory 4.3% 3.7% 1.17 (1.03-1.32) Urinary tract 0.9% 0.8% 1.07 (0.82-1.39) Abdominal/gastrointestinal 0.6% 0.5% 1.26 (0.91-1.75) Skin 0.5% 0.3% 1.66 (1.14-2.43) Other 2.4% 1.7% 1.38 (1.16-1.63) Any infection SAE 1031 (8.0%) 853 (6.6%) 1.22 (1.12-1.34) Bleeding Gastrointestinal 0.8% 0.6% 1.53 (1.14-2.05) Intracranial 1.1% 0.9% 1.17 (0.92-1.50) Other 0.6% 0.4% 1.66 (1.18-2.34) Any bleeding SAE 326 (2.5%) 238 (1.9%) 1.38 (1.17-1.62)
  • 11. Primary outcome: MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS (MVE) Defined as the first occurrence of either: • MAJOR CORONARY EVENT = Non-fatal MI or coronary death; • STROKE = Any non-fatal or fatal stroke (including subarachnoid haemorrhage); or • REVASCULARIZATION = Coronary or non-coronary artery surgery or angioplasty (including amputation) Secondary outcomes: • Separate components of the primary outcome • MVE in patients with or without coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral artery disease and diabetes • Mortality, overall and by specific causes of death Prespecified efficacy outcomes
  • 12. Effects of ER niacin/laropiprant on lipids Year of FU LDL-C (mg/dL) HDL-C (mg/dL) Triglycerides (mg/dL) 1 -12 6 -35 4 -7 6 -31 STUDY AVERAGE -10 6 -33 (mmol/L) (-0.25) (0.16) -0.37 “Based on previous observational studies and randomized trials, it was anticipated such lipid differences might translate into a 10-15% reduction in vascular events” Eur Heart Journal 2013
  • 13. Statistical power after about 4 years Proportional reduction in risk Statistical power at 2p: <0.05 <0.01 8% 67% 43% 9% 78% 56% 10% 86% 68% 12% 96% 87% Based on estimated 3200 MVEs during median follow-up of 4 years
  • 14. Effect of ERN/LRPT on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS 0 1 2 3 4 Years of follow-up 0 5 10 15 20 Patientssufferingevents(%) 15.0% 14.5% Placebo ERN/LRPT Logrank P=0.29 Risk ratio 0.96 (95% CI 0.90 – 1.03)
  • 15. Effect of ERN/LRPT on MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS Randomized allocation Risk ratio & 95% CIEvent pPlaceboERN/LRPT (12835)(12838) Non-fatal MI 402 (3.1%) 431 (3.4%) 0.93 (0.82-1.07) 0.33 Coronary death 302 (2.4%) 291 (2.3%) 1.04 (0.89-1.22) 0.63 Major coronary event 668 (5.2%) 694 (5.4%) 0.96 (0.87-1.07) 0.51 Ischaemic stroke 389 (3.0%) 415 (3.2%) 0.94 (0.82-1.08) 0.37 Haemorrhagic stroke 114 (0.9%) 89 (0.7%) 1.28 (0.97-1.69) 0.08 Any stroke 498 (3.9%) 499 (3.9%) 1.00 (0.88-1.13) 0.56 Coronary revasc 591 (4.6%) 664 (5.2%) 0.89 (0.80-0.99) 0.04 Non-coronary revasc 236 (1.8%) 258 (2.0%) 0.92 (0.77-1.09) 0.33 Any revascularization 807 (6.3%) 897 (7.0%) 0.90 (0.82-0.99) 0.03 Major vascular event 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 0.96 (0.90-1.03) 0.29 1.0 1.20.8 ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
  • 16. MVE by age, sex, region and statin-based therapy Randomized allocation Risk ratio & 95% CI Het or trend χ² (uncorrected p value)PlaceboERN/LRPT (12,835)(12,838)Age (years) < 65 740 (11.4%) 786 (12.2%) 0.00 (p=0.98)≥ 65 <70 392 (13.9%) 367 (13.1%) ≥ 70 564 (15.9%) 605 (17.0%) Sex Male 1397 (13.2%) 1485 (14.0%) 3.21 (p=0.07)Female 299 (13.4%) 273 (12.3%) Region Europe 832 (11.3%) 913 (12.4%) 3.61 (p=0.06)China 864 (15.8%) 845 (15.5%) Statin-based therapy Simvastatin 40mg 945 (14.0%) 949 (14.0%) 1.28 (p=0.26)Ezetimibe/simvastatin 751 (12.4%) 809 (13.3%) All 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3 reduction 1.0 1.20.8 ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
  • 17. Lipid differences (mg/dL) by age, sex, region and statin-based therapy Patients LDL-C HDL-C Age (years) <65 12,932 -10 5 ≥65 <70 5624 -11 7 ≥70 7117 -8 7 Sex Male 21,229 -10 6 Female 4444 -8 7 Region Europe 14,741 -12 7 China 10,932 -7 5 Statin-based therapy Simvastatin 40mg 13,542 -8 6 Ezetimibe/simvastatin 12,131 -12 7 All 25,673 -10 6
  • 18. MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS by prior disease Randomized allocation Risk ratio & 95% CI Het or trend χ² (uncorrected p value)PlaceboERN/LRPT (12,835)(12,838) Coronary heart disease Yes 1361 (13.5%) 1413 (14.0%) 0.00 (p=0.96)No 335 (12.1%) 345 (12.5%) Cerebrovascular disease Yes 616 (15.2%) 656 (16.0%) 0.10 (p=0.75)No 1080 (12.3%) 1102 (12.6%) Peripheral arterial disease Yes 302 (18.6%) 332 (20.9%) 1.66 (p=0.20)No 1394 (12.4%) 1426 (12.7%) Diabetes mellitus Yes 678 (16.4%) 708 (17.0%) 0.00 (p=0.98)No 1018 (11.7%) 1050 (12.1%) All 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3 reduction 1.0 1.20.8 ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
  • 19. Lipid differences (mg/dL) by prior disease Patients LDL-C HDL-C Coronary heart disease Yes 20,137 -10 6 No 5536 -10 7 Cerebrovascular disease Yes 8170 -9 6 No 17,503 -10 7 Peripheral arterial disease Yes 3214 -11 7 No 22,459 -9 6 Diabetes mellitus Yes 8299 -8 7 No 17,374 -10 6 All 25,673 -10 6
  • 20. MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS by baseline lipids Randomized allocation Risk ratio & 95% CI Het or trend Χ² (uncorrected p value)PlaceboERN/LRPT (12835)(12838) HDL cholesterol <35 (0.9) 388 (15.8%) 399 (16.3%) 0.20 (p=0.66)≥35 <43 560 (13.7%) 546 (13.5%) ≥43 (1.1) 748 (11.9%) 813 (12.8%) LDL cholesterol <58 (1.5) 724 (14.7%) 679 (13.8%) 5.91 (p=0.02)≥58 <77 685 (12.4%) 761 (13.7%) ≥77 (2.0) 287 (12.0%) 318 (13.5%) All 1696 (13.2%)1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3 reduction 1.0 1.20.8 ERN/LRPT better Placebo better mg/dL (mmol/L) Triglycerides <89 (1.0) 541(13.2%) 563 (13.4%) 0.66 (p=0.42)≥89 <151 694(12.8%) 712 (13.2%) ≥151 (1.7) 461(13.9%) 483 (14.8%)
  • 21. Lipid differences (mg/dL) by baseline lipids mg/dL (mmol/L) Patients LDL-C HDL-C HDL cholesterol <35 (0.9) 4900 -7 5 ≥35 <43 8135 -9 6 ≥43 (1.1) 12,638 -11 7 LDL cholesterol <58 (1.5) 9860 -7 6 ≥58 <77 11,054 -10 6 ≥77 (2.0) 4759 -15 7 Triglycerides <89 (1.0) 8297 -9 6 ≥89 <151 10,801 -10 6 ≥151 (1.7) 6575 -10 6 All 25,673 -10 6
  • 22. Effect of ERN/LRPT on CAUSE-SPECIFIC MORTALITY Randomized allocation Risk ratio & 95% CI pPlaceboERN/LRPT (12835)(12838) Coronary 302 (2.4%) 291 (2.3%) Other cardiac 15 (0.1%) 15 (0.1%) Stroke 88 (0.7%) 70 (0.5%) Other vascular 43 (0.3%) 35 (0.3%) Vascular 448 (3.5%) 411 (3.2%) 1.09 (0.96-1.25) 0.19 Neoplastic 206 (1.6%) 206 (1.6%) Hepatic 3 (0.0%) 0 (0.0%) Other medical 106 (0.8%) 92 (0.7%) Non-medical 16 (0.1%) 12 (0.1%) Unknown 19 (0.1%) 11 (0.1%) Non-vascular 350 (2.7%) 321 (2.5%) 1.09 (0.94-1.27) 0.25 Any cause 798 (6.2%) 732 (5.7%) 1.09 (0.99-1.21) 0.08 1.0 1.20.8 ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
  • 23. HPS2-THRIVE: SUMMARY • Significant excesses of serious adverse events (SAEs) due to known and unrecognised side-effects of niacin. Over 4 years, ER niacin/laropiprant caused SAEs in ~30 patients per 1000 • No significant benefit of ER niacin/laropiprant on the primary outcome of major vascular events when added to effective statin-based LDL-lowering therapy • No clear evidence of differences in efficacy or safety in different types of patient (except for an excess of statin- related myopathy in Chinese patients) • Findings are consistent with previous niacin trials. The role of ER niacin for the treatment and prevention of cardiovascular disease needs to be reconsidered
  • 24. European Medicine Agency announces review of niacin based on HPS2-THRIVE “....assess the impact of the new data on the benefit-risk balance of these medicines, and will issue an opinion on whether the marketing authorisation should be maintained, varied, suspended or withdrawn across the EU.” March 2013
  • 27. Effect of ERN/LRPT on SITE SPECIFIC CANCER INCIDENCE Randomized allocation Risk ratio & 95% CI pPlaceboERN/LRPT (n=12835)(n=12838) Gastrointestinal 113 (0.9%) 132 (1.0%) Respiratory 140 (1.1%) 126 (1.0%) Breast (females only) 27 (1.2%) 21 (0.9%) Melanoma 23 (0.2%) 24 (0.2%) Genitourinary 208 (1.6%) 203 (1.6%) Haematological 40 (0.3%) 33 (0.3%) Other/non-specified 88 (0.7%) 86 (0.7%) Any cancer* 622 (4.8%) 609 (4.7%) 1.02 (0.92-1.15) 0.67 Non-melanoma skin 128 (1.0%) 136 (1.1%) Recurrence of pre-rand cancer 5 (0.0%) 7 (0.1%) 1.0 1.20.8 ERN/LRPT better Placebo better * Excluding non-melanoma skin cancer.
  • 28. MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS by low HDL/high triglycerides and prior statin use Randomized allocation Risk ratio & 95% CI Het or trend χ² (uncorrected p value)PlaceboERN/LRPT (12835)(12838) Low HDL-C, high triglycerides Yes 333 (15.1%) 334 (15.5%) 0.00 (p=0.95)No 1363 (12.8%) 1424 (13.3%) Prior statin use (years) None 522 (16.9%) 520 (16.8%) 2.88 (p=0.09)>0 <3 478 (11.7%) 467 (11.5%) ≥3 <6 291 (10.9%) 316 (11.8%) ≥ 6 405 (13.5%) 455 (15.2%) All 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3 reduction 1.0 1.20.8 ERN/LRPT better Placebo better
  • 29. MAJOR VASCULAR EVENTS by baseline lipids Risk ratio & 95% CI Het or trend χ² (uncorrected p value) PlaceboERN/LRPT (12,835)(12,838) HDL cholesterol (mmol/L) <0.9 388 (15.8%) 399 (16.3%) 0.20 (p=0.66)≥ 0.9 <1.1 560 (13.7%) 546 (13.5%) ≥ 1.1 748 (11.9%) 813 (12.8%) LDL cholesterol (mmol/L) <1.5 724 (14.7%) 679 (13.8%) 5.91 (p=0.02)≥1.5 <2.0 685 (12.4%) 761 (13.7%) ≥ 2.0 287 (12.0%) 318 (13.5%) HDL-C change during run-in (mmol/L) <0.09 528 (13.0%) 592 (14.7%) 3.58 (p=0.06)≥ 0.09 <0.24 574 (13.3%) 565 (13.3%) ≥ 0.24 594 (13.3%) 601 (13.2%) LDL-C change during run-in (mmol/L) <0.25 587 (14.0%) 609 (14.2%) 0.03 (p=0.86)≥ 0.25 <0.53 564 (12.7%) 597 (13.4%) ≥ 0.53 545 (12.9%) 552 (13.4%) All 1696 (13.2%) 1758 (13.7%) 3.5% SE 3.3 reduction 1.0 1.20.8ERN/LRPT better Placebo better