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Is Warren Winning?

        The victors and vanquished
after a generation of unrelenting class war
                   Sam Pizzigati
            Institute for Policy Studies
             America’s Future Now!
                  Washington, D.C.
                   June 1, 2009
The sage of Omaha speaks




    “There‟s class warfare, all
    right, but it‟s my class, the
    rich class, that‟s making war,
    and we‟re winning.”
      Warren Buffett, billionaire investor,
       New York Times, November 26,
                                     2006
But who sits in Warren‟s class?




Who exactly is really winning?
Is Warren‟s income class . . .
Income needed to enter affluent income categories, 2006

                                            $388,806




                      $153,542
 $108,904




  Top 10%              Top 5%                Top 1%

                                      Data source: Internal Revenue
                                      Service
How we define income class
        matters
  Income increase, after inflation, 1975 - 2006
                                         265.2%




                    146.0%
 109.5%




 Top 10%            Top 5%               Top 1%

                                  Data source: Internal Revenue
                                  Service
The real winners sit at the summit
         Income increase, after inflation, 1975 - 2006
                                                               815.8%




                                           406.5%


                       184.8%
     113.0%


  Bottom half, top   Top 99.5 - 99.9%   Top 99.9 - 99.99%      Top 0.01%
        1%

                                 Source: Saez-Piketty analysis of Internal Revenue
                                 Service data
Warren‟s side: even more
          exclusive
                Average income, 2006
                                 $263,306,00
                                      0




        $29,726,899



Top 0.01% (14,836 families)        Top 400
Since 1955, top 400 income up 2048%
                       $263,306,00
                            0

     Top 400
     average income,
     1955 and 2006,
     inflation-
     adjusted




      $12,256,976

          1955            2006
Top 400 wealth even more
impressive
                     Net worth, 2007

                                       $1.61 trillion
    $1.54 trillion




    Forbes 400                 Bottom 50%, U.S. families

                                        Source: Federal Reserve
                                        Board
Our rich by far the world‟s richest
                World billionaires, by
                nation, 2009

                Rest of
               world, 252
                                         USA, 369



                             China, 47
India, 24
  UK, 25
   Russia, 32
          Germany, 44
                                             Source: Forbes magazine
The Last 30 Years: A Grand
                Reversal
       Average income of top 0.01 percent of U.S. families as a multiple
           of average income of bottom 90 percent of U.S. families
                                                                 Top 0.01% in
1000
               Top 0.01% in                                      2006 makes
                1928 makes                                        976 times
               892 times the                                      the bottom
                bottom 90%                                           90%
800           average income



600

                                                 Top 0.01% in
                               Top 0.01% in
                                                  1980 makes
                                1955 makes
                                                 176 times the
400                            179 times the
                                                  bottom 90%
                                bottom 90%



200




   0
       1917
       1919
       1921
       1923
       1925
       1927
       1929
       1931
       1933
       1935
       1937
       1939
       1941
       1943
       1945
       1947
       1949
       1951
       1953
       1955
       1957
       1959
       1961
       1963
       1965
       1967
       1969
       1971
       1973
       1975
       1977
       1979
       1981
       1983
       1985
       1987
       1989
       1991
       1993
       1995
       1997
       1999
       2001
       2003
       2005
How extremely concentrated has
      wealth in the United States become?
                     Total net worth, 2007


                  $21.9
                 trillion
                                                 $18.4
Does not                                        trillion
include total
net worth of
the Forbes 400




                 Top 1%                     Bottom 90%
                 Source: Federal Reserve Board, January 2009
Who‟s losing the class war?
Bottom 90%: Going nowhere fast
$1,400,000
                                                                                   $1,242,595
$1,200,000


$1,000,000


 $800,000


 $600,000           Average top 1% income


 $400,000


 $200,000
                                            Average bottom 90% income                   $30,659
       $0
             1975      1979       1983         1987      1991      1995   1999   2003      2006
The missing American Dream
        The more that income concentrates at the top,
     the less lives have improved for average Americans.
                         Real family income growth,
                         1947–1979 vs 1979 - 2005
Up 116%                                  Up 114%
                          Up 111%
            Up 100%                                     Up 99%
                                                                     Up 86%


                                                                       Up 81%
                                                           Up 53%


                                             Up 25%
                              Up 15%
                 Up 9%
   Down 1%

Bottom Fifth Second Fifth Middle Fifth   Fourth Fifth    Top Fifth    Top 5%


                         1947-1979          1979-2005
How did all this happen?
      One major factor:
  We stopped taxing the rich.
Taxing the rich: now and then
           Top tax rates by income category
                                        91%




    35%               39.6%
                                                25%
                             20%
          15%



     2009                  2000               1959
                Ordinary      Capital Gains
The Great Tax Shift
Share of income paid in federal income tax by top 400

     51.2%




                                       17.2%




      1955                              2006
Sweet times at the tippy top
                                   $263,306,000
 Top 400 income
 and federal income
 tax,
 1955 and 2006,
 inflation-adjusted




      $12,256,976                  $45,216,000
                      $6,275,573

       1955                           2006
The right’s argument

        „We‟re overtaxed‟
      Not by comparison with our global peers

      Current top tax rate on income in top income bracket

                                            45%
                   40%                                       40%
35%




USA                 UK                    Germany            France
The right’s argument

„The rich can easily avoid high taxes‟
   But the wealthy pay more in taxes when tax rates start
                                      high
       91%            Tax rate on income in top income bracket



                                        70%




                                                                  35%
    Share of total income actually paid in taxes

      51.2%                            42.3%                     17.2%


     1955                             1966                       2006
The right’s argument

    „High taxes endanger philanthropy‟
   Foundation giving pales against revenue taxing the rich would
                            generate
                    $3.7 billion




Average 1955 tax rate for top 400                                 $2.0 billion
                                           $1.9 billion


Average current tax rate for top 400
                                           $636 million



          John Paulson 2007 income                        Gates Foundation 2007 grants
Understanding the impact of inequality

   The more equality, the more giving
Indeed, everything that matters improves as we become less unequal

        The more middle class a society, research shows,
          the better the society for all the people in it.
            The more democratic
            The more economically vibrant
            The more environmentally sound
            The more honest
            The more trustful
            The more compassionate
            The more healthy
America‟s mid 20th century consensus
 Smart societies do not let wealth concentrate in a precious few hands.
       Smart societies tax the rich to invest in opportunity for all.

    ‘In many countries of the free world
    private enterprise is greatly different

    from what we know here. In some,

    a few families are fabulously

    wealthy, contribute far less than they
    should in taxes, and are indifferent to

    the poverty of the great masses of

    the people . . .                             Dwight D.
    A country in this situation is fraught       Eisenhower
                                                 National Automobile
    with continual instability. It is ripe for   Show Industry Dinner
                                                 Detroit, October 17, 1960
    revolution.’
Our current reigning wisdom
We can‟t go back to the equality we had
                                          In 2004, to give
                                          America‟s bottom
                                          80% the same share
                                          of the nation‟s
                                          income they received
                                          in 1979 “would have
                                          required transferring
         Lawrence                         $664 billion from the
        Summers,
           currently                      top 1% of
   director, Obama                        households to the
      White House
 National Economic                        bottom 80%.”
             Council                      “No one would
                                          suggest this is
                                          feasible or even
                                          desirable . . .”
For a America
   that works for everyone,
        maybe we need
to start doing the suggesting.
Is Warren 'Winning'?

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Is Warren 'Winning'?

  • 1. Is Warren Winning? The victors and vanquished after a generation of unrelenting class war Sam Pizzigati Institute for Policy Studies America’s Future Now! Washington, D.C. June 1, 2009
  • 2. The sage of Omaha speaks “There‟s class warfare, all right, but it‟s my class, the rich class, that‟s making war, and we‟re winning.” Warren Buffett, billionaire investor, New York Times, November 26, 2006
  • 3. But who sits in Warren‟s class? Who exactly is really winning?
  • 4. Is Warren‟s income class . . . Income needed to enter affluent income categories, 2006 $388,806 $153,542 $108,904 Top 10% Top 5% Top 1% Data source: Internal Revenue Service
  • 5. How we define income class matters Income increase, after inflation, 1975 - 2006 265.2% 146.0% 109.5% Top 10% Top 5% Top 1% Data source: Internal Revenue Service
  • 6. The real winners sit at the summit Income increase, after inflation, 1975 - 2006 815.8% 406.5% 184.8% 113.0% Bottom half, top Top 99.5 - 99.9% Top 99.9 - 99.99% Top 0.01% 1% Source: Saez-Piketty analysis of Internal Revenue Service data
  • 7. Warren‟s side: even more exclusive Average income, 2006 $263,306,00 0 $29,726,899 Top 0.01% (14,836 families) Top 400
  • 8. Since 1955, top 400 income up 2048% $263,306,00 0 Top 400 average income, 1955 and 2006, inflation- adjusted $12,256,976 1955 2006
  • 9. Top 400 wealth even more impressive Net worth, 2007 $1.61 trillion $1.54 trillion Forbes 400 Bottom 50%, U.S. families Source: Federal Reserve Board
  • 10. Our rich by far the world‟s richest World billionaires, by nation, 2009 Rest of world, 252 USA, 369 China, 47 India, 24 UK, 25 Russia, 32 Germany, 44 Source: Forbes magazine
  • 11. The Last 30 Years: A Grand Reversal Average income of top 0.01 percent of U.S. families as a multiple of average income of bottom 90 percent of U.S. families Top 0.01% in 1000 Top 0.01% in 2006 makes 1928 makes 976 times 892 times the the bottom bottom 90% 90% 800 average income 600 Top 0.01% in Top 0.01% in 1980 makes 1955 makes 176 times the 400 179 times the bottom 90% bottom 90% 200 0 1917 1919 1921 1923 1925 1927 1929 1931 1933 1935 1937 1939 1941 1943 1945 1947 1949 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005
  • 12. How extremely concentrated has wealth in the United States become? Total net worth, 2007 $21.9 trillion $18.4 Does not trillion include total net worth of the Forbes 400 Top 1% Bottom 90% Source: Federal Reserve Board, January 2009
  • 13. Who‟s losing the class war?
  • 14. Bottom 90%: Going nowhere fast $1,400,000 $1,242,595 $1,200,000 $1,000,000 $800,000 $600,000 Average top 1% income $400,000 $200,000 Average bottom 90% income $30,659 $0 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999 2003 2006
  • 15. The missing American Dream The more that income concentrates at the top, the less lives have improved for average Americans. Real family income growth, 1947–1979 vs 1979 - 2005 Up 116% Up 114% Up 111% Up 100% Up 99% Up 86% Up 81% Up 53% Up 25% Up 15% Up 9% Down 1% Bottom Fifth Second Fifth Middle Fifth Fourth Fifth Top Fifth Top 5% 1947-1979 1979-2005
  • 16. How did all this happen? One major factor: We stopped taxing the rich.
  • 17. Taxing the rich: now and then Top tax rates by income category 91% 35% 39.6% 25% 20% 15% 2009 2000 1959 Ordinary Capital Gains
  • 18. The Great Tax Shift Share of income paid in federal income tax by top 400 51.2% 17.2% 1955 2006
  • 19. Sweet times at the tippy top $263,306,000 Top 400 income and federal income tax, 1955 and 2006, inflation-adjusted $12,256,976 $45,216,000 $6,275,573 1955 2006
  • 20. The right’s argument „We‟re overtaxed‟ Not by comparison with our global peers Current top tax rate on income in top income bracket 45% 40% 40% 35% USA UK Germany France
  • 21. The right’s argument „The rich can easily avoid high taxes‟ But the wealthy pay more in taxes when tax rates start high 91% Tax rate on income in top income bracket 70% 35% Share of total income actually paid in taxes 51.2% 42.3% 17.2% 1955 1966 2006
  • 22. The right’s argument „High taxes endanger philanthropy‟ Foundation giving pales against revenue taxing the rich would generate $3.7 billion Average 1955 tax rate for top 400 $2.0 billion $1.9 billion Average current tax rate for top 400 $636 million John Paulson 2007 income Gates Foundation 2007 grants
  • 23. Understanding the impact of inequality The more equality, the more giving Indeed, everything that matters improves as we become less unequal The more middle class a society, research shows, the better the society for all the people in it.  The more democratic  The more economically vibrant  The more environmentally sound  The more honest  The more trustful  The more compassionate  The more healthy
  • 24. America‟s mid 20th century consensus Smart societies do not let wealth concentrate in a precious few hands. Smart societies tax the rich to invest in opportunity for all. ‘In many countries of the free world private enterprise is greatly different from what we know here. In some, a few families are fabulously wealthy, contribute far less than they should in taxes, and are indifferent to the poverty of the great masses of the people . . . Dwight D. A country in this situation is fraught Eisenhower National Automobile with continual instability. It is ripe for Show Industry Dinner Detroit, October 17, 1960 revolution.’
  • 25. Our current reigning wisdom We can‟t go back to the equality we had In 2004, to give America‟s bottom 80% the same share of the nation‟s income they received in 1979 “would have required transferring Lawrence $664 billion from the Summers, currently top 1% of director, Obama households to the White House National Economic bottom 80%.” Council “No one would suggest this is feasible or even desirable . . .”
  • 26. For a America that works for everyone, maybe we need to start doing the suggesting.

Editor's Notes

  1. If we look at the entire top 10 percent, those folks did nicely. Between 1975 and 2006, after inflation, their incomes a little more than doubled.If we just look at the top 5 percent, even better. Top five incomes went up nearly 150 percent.But what about just the top 1 percent? Now we’re really on to something.
  2. The richest 400 American families have nearly as much wealth as theover 58 million families in the bottom half.
  3. Compared to the rest of us, our rich are as rich as they’ve ever been in modern times.
  4. The top 1 percent of American families have more wealth than the bottom 90 percent – and not just more wealth, but $3.5 trillion more in wealth and that’s not even counting the wealth of anyone who appears in the Forbes 400. The Federal Reserve does not survey these folks for privacy reasons.
  5. We’ve seen who’s winning the class war. Who’s losing?