Reflects on the predictions that were made and the reality that ensued midway through the new fall season.

1. from
newsletter
November 16, 2011
By Brendan Marrese, Buyer, Video Investments, and
Brooke Perry, Associate Media Director, Video Investments

2. Coming into the new broadcast season, pundits complained about the state of television as networks
(and consumers) favored reality over quality programming. The consensus was that, barring a few
shows, expectations were very low. Program development continued through the summer months,
demonstrating the networks’ lack of faith in their new shows. Last year’s failure rate was an
astounding 77%, and many anticipated that this trend would continue into fall 2011.
Now it’s November, and we are in the thick of the new fall TV season. Most of the new shows have
premiered, and we’ve reached the point where the viewers, not the critics, decide which shows are
hits and which are misses. So, were the TV soothsayers spot on or way off?
Without further ado, here are some things we’ve gleaned thus far:
NBC Bores while FoX soars
The executives at Comcast must be shaking their heads as their newest member continues to
hemorrhage in ratings. NBC experienced its worst opening week ever, coming in dead last out of
the big four broadcast networks, proving that money doesn’t buy happiness. The Peacock Network
isn’t the only one experiencing a slow start. Both ABC’s and CBS’s average A18–49 ratings are also
down, nearly 7% and 8% versus the prior year, respectively. FOX, on the other hand, is enjoying an
11% increase in A18–49 ratings over last fall and enjoying first place.
Who’s hot with the A18–49 group
laugh traCks are BaCk
Most of the programs that received the most favorable reviews from critics were sitcoms, and it would
appear that the viewers wholeheartedly agree. The genre is healthier than it’s been in years, with many
new comedies emerging as future hits. Two and a Half Men creator Chuck Lorre credits this to today’s
economy, saying, “Comedy thrives during economic downturns. You know, if you’ve had a bad day,
laughter is a better remedy than watching a coroner pick shrapnel out of some poor guy’s private parts.”
The success of ABC’s Modern Family laid the groundwork for new sitcoms, creating a renaissance for
the genre. Even CBS veteran comedies Two and a Half Men and How I Met Your Mother are riding the
wave, with both up in ratings across demos. Both FOX’s New Girl and CBS’s 2 Broke Girls premiered with
tremendous sampling and large numbers, and both have witnessed little audience attrition from week
CBS’s 2 Broke Girls to week. New Girl has even improved on its lead-in’s ratings, the much-buzzed-about Glee. In addition,
NBC’s Whitney and Up All Night and ABC’s Last Man Standing and Suburgatory have all proven worthy and received prompt full-season pickups. ABC’s Man Up
seems to be performing well, though only time will tell, as only three episodes have aired so far. Two comedies, however, were not exactly embraced by their
audience (or lack thereof): NBC’s Free Agents was canceled after three episodes, and CBS’s How to Be a Gentleman was the network’s first cancellation.

3. girls rule aNd Boys…you kNow the rest
One of the notable trends coming out of the upfronts in May was the prominence of the fairer
sex, with over half of this season’s freshman shows including females in lead roles. In addition
to most of the above comedies, NBC’s Prime Suspect, ABC’s Revenge and The CW’s Hart of Dixie
and Ringer all include female leads, and the viewers like it. NBC ordered six more scripts of
Prime Suspect. The CW’s Ringer, starring Sarah Michelle Gellar, helped to make its Tuesday
premiere night the network’s most watched Tuesday in two years, and in turn the show received
a full season pickup. The CW ordered nine additional episodes of Hart of Dixie. Meanwhile, ABC’s
Revenge is not only flogging Law & Order: SVU in its time slot, but it’s also one of the highest
rated new dramas. No surprise, then, that it’s been picked up for a full season. Lucille Ball
would be so proud.
The CW’s Ringer
Nostalgia is overrated
Hoping to mirror the success that AMC has seen with Mad Men, NBC and ABC created their own
tributes to the ‘60s and ‘70s, assuming viewers would feel nostalgic in a time of economic unrest
and rapid technological advancement. Although these particular programs may have received
the most buzz, it seems people weren’t quite ready to reminisce about the “good ol’ days.” ABC’s
Charlie’s Angels reboot was canned after only four episodes, while NBC’s The Playboy Club was
expelled after only three airings, giving it the distinct honor of being the first series canceled this
season. ABC’s highly promoted Pan Am debuted to large numbers, but has lost altitude over the
past several weeks; half of the audience has abandoned ship (or deplaned) since its premiere. ABC
still has faith, though—an additional five scripts were ordered.
NBC’s The Playboy Club
reality ruNNiNg out oF steam
While comedies are once again taking the ratings crown, it is coming at the expense of reality-
based programming. Even veteran reality shows such as CBS’s Survivor and NBC’s The Biggest
Loser have seen a dramatic drop in their numbers versus last fall. Meanwhile, this fall’s
freshmen reality programs, which represent just 2 of the 27 new shows, are failing to meet
lofty expectations set for them as well. FOX (and critics) were banking that The X Factor would
dominate the fall season, given the success of American Idol and the fascination with Simon
Cowell. Even Simon himself said that if The X Factor premiered to fewer than 20 million viewers,
it would be a disappointment. While the show hasn’t been losing viewers or been DVR-ed
much (testament that it is appointment TV for the faithful), it also hasn’t been delivering the
superlative ratings anticipated, leaving many to wonder how much more undiscovered talent
Fox’s The X Factor

4. America has. While Simon Cowell must be somewhat dismayed by its actual performance versus his lofty projection, the marketing execs at Pepsi can’t
be too pleased, either. Perhaps viewers have decided to start limiting their caffeine intake in addition to their music competition viewing. Meanwhile, The
CW said “C U L8R” to H8R after only four airings. Does this mean that Snooki’s 15 minutes are almost up? Here’s hoping.
FaNtasy oN the FeNCe
If there’s one show that is surprising the critics, it’s FOX’s Terra Nova, which was expected to
be the breakout hit of fall 2011, along with The X Factor. FOX has been working on this series for
two years, and it has a budget the size of a Tyrannosaurus Rex. While Terra Nova premiered to
a decent audience in September, the numbers have not been what Fox was hoping for. The good
news is that the show has maintained its numbers week after week, but can this modest audience
justify production costs? The CW’s The Secret Circle, a drama based on the book series by the
author of The Vampire Diaries, received a full-season order. Not surprising, given the success
of the Vampire franchise. ABC’s Once Upon a Time debut numbers are in, and they’re magical.
The show is ABC’s highest rated premiere in two years, and after airing only two episodes, the
network has picked it up for a full season. NBC’s Grimm premiered to decent numbers against
the World Series. While the numbers weren’t as strong during its second episode, it did beat its
main competition, Fringe. Only time will tell if this genre can help save these networks. Fox’s Terra Nova
iF at First you doN’t suCCeed…
In the end, the broadcast networks were hoping for stronger ratings this fall. NBC desperately
needed hits to return to must-see status, and FOX thought they had another American Idol
on their hands with The X Factor. Heavily publicized shows like CBS’s How to Be a Gentleman
and ABC’s Charlie’s Angels flopped. It wasn’t all doom and gloom, though—we’ve learned that
people are turning on their TVs to escape their real-world problems. Thanks to economic
uncertainty, comedies and fantasy-based programming are back in a (relatively) big way.
Reality television isn’t disappearing, either. It might not be as popular as it once was, but the
genre still dominates the top 20 programs, not to mention that network execs love that reality
shows cost next to nothing to produce, yet garner significant marketing dollars. All in all, the
networks have celebrated their tiny victories, cut their losses and moved on to midseason
NBC’s Charlie’s Angels dreams of grandeur. Here’s hoping they have better success come the new year, and we will be
sending out our next TV report early March 2012.

5. the tally as oF NovemBer 11, 2011
winners
Jury’s still out
losers