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Holy Week 2016
This document summarizes the events and meanings of Holy Week in Christianity. It discusses the days from Palm Sunday through Easter Sunday, including Maundy Thursday which commemorates Jesus establishing the Eucharist and washing disciples' feet. Good Friday marks Jesus' crucifixion and death, while Holy Saturday involves no events until the Paschal Vigil begins Saturday night with rituals concluding in baptism and first communion. Easter Sunday celebrates Jesus' resurrection, which is a core part of the Gospel message and encapsulated in the Apostles' Creed that affirms Christian beliefs.
Articolo_ABI_v1
This document introduces a new approach to measuring systemic risk through quantifying the complexity and resilience of interconnected systems. It defines a method to construct "business structure maps" from financial data to model a system's structure and interdependencies. A system's complexity is calculated from its structure and entropy, and resilience is defined as its current complexity relative to minimum and maximum bounds. Case studies apply this method to systems of major European and US banks, identifying which banks most impact the overall system complexity and resilience. The approach aims to measure resilience without building explicit system models, reducing risk from model uncertainties.
COSMOS_Data_Sheet
COSMOSTM is a PC-based device that can process up to 100 channels in real-time to quantify the stability of hospitalized patients based on streaming data from sensors and monitors. It analyzes all potential cross-relationships between channels to provide a holistic view of the patient's stability that is independent of mathematical modeling. The device signals when a patient's stability undergoes changes due to events like traumas or treatment side-effects.
OntoCare_DataSheet_v2010_OntoMed
Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) has been shown to improve symptoms and quality of life for patients with moderate heart failure. OntoCareTM allows doctors to quantitatively measure the degree of success of CRT based on pre- and post-treatment ECG analysis. It generates Complexity Maps from ECG data to illustrate information flow within the heart and how this changes with treatment. OntoCareTM then measures the topological difference between pre- and post-treatment Maps to determine where and how much the therapy was successful. In the example, the overall impact of ablation therapy was approximately 63%.
USA_ISR_Poster
- The study monitored 11 anesthetized pigs during induced hypoxic cardiac arrest using multiple vital sign sensors to record heart rate, blood pressure, etc.
- The researchers used OntoSpace software to calculate a measure called OntoSpace Complexity (OSC) based on the interconnectedness and entropy of the full monitoring system.
- They found that OSC increased sharply an average of 5 minutes before the pigs experienced loss of arterial pulsation, while most individual vital signs did not change significantly until closer to loss of pulsation.
- Monitoring systems-level complexity through OSC may provide earlier warning of deterioration compared to individual vital signs and could help with crisis anticipation in decision support systems.
Optimization
The document discusses the limitations of optimization and optimality in engineering design. It argues that optimal systems are fragile and prone to failure since they are designed for a single condition, while robust systems can absorb variations without compromising function. The document provides a theorem showing that for response surfaces, systems are less likely to remain in a state of optimality due to entropy naturally increasing over time. It concludes that nature favors robust, fit systems over optimal ones, and engineering could benefit from embracing robustness over fragile optimality in design.
Recommended
Holy Week 2016
This document summarizes the events and meanings of Holy Week in Christianity. It discusses the days from Palm Sunday through Easter Sunday, including Maundy Thursday which commemorates Jesus establishing the Eucharist and washing disciples' feet. Good Friday marks Jesus' crucifixion and death, while Holy Saturday involves no events until the Paschal Vigil begins Saturday night with rituals concluding in baptism and first communion. Easter Sunday celebrates Jesus' resurrection, which is a core part of the Gospel message and encapsulated in the Apostles' Creed that affirms Christian beliefs.
Articolo_ABI_v1
This document introduces a new approach to measuring systemic risk through quantifying the complexity and resilience of interconnected systems. It defines a method to construct "business structure maps" from financial data to model a system's structure and interdependencies. A system's complexity is calculated from its structure and entropy, and resilience is defined as its current complexity relative to minimum and maximum bounds. Case studies apply this method to systems of major European and US banks, identifying which banks most impact the overall system complexity and resilience. The approach aims to measure resilience without building explicit system models, reducing risk from model uncertainties.
COSMOS_Data_Sheet
COSMOSTM is a PC-based device that can process up to 100 channels in real-time to quantify the stability of hospitalized patients based on streaming data from sensors and monitors. It analyzes all potential cross-relationships between channels to provide a holistic view of the patient's stability that is independent of mathematical modeling. The device signals when a patient's stability undergoes changes due to events like traumas or treatment side-effects.
OntoCare_DataSheet_v2010_OntoMed
Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) has been shown to improve symptoms and quality of life for patients with moderate heart failure. OntoCareTM allows doctors to quantitatively measure the degree of success of CRT based on pre- and post-treatment ECG analysis. It generates Complexity Maps from ECG data to illustrate information flow within the heart and how this changes with treatment. OntoCareTM then measures the topological difference between pre- and post-treatment Maps to determine where and how much the therapy was successful. In the example, the overall impact of ablation therapy was approximately 63%.
USA_ISR_Poster
- The study monitored 11 anesthetized pigs during induced hypoxic cardiac arrest using multiple vital sign sensors to record heart rate, blood pressure, etc.
- The researchers used OntoSpace software to calculate a measure called OntoSpace Complexity (OSC) based on the interconnectedness and entropy of the full monitoring system.
- They found that OSC increased sharply an average of 5 minutes before the pigs experienced loss of arterial pulsation, while most individual vital signs did not change significantly until closer to loss of pulsation.
- Monitoring systems-level complexity through OSC may provide earlier warning of deterioration compared to individual vital signs and could help with crisis anticipation in decision support systems.
Optimization
The document discusses the limitations of optimization and optimality in engineering design. It argues that optimal systems are fragile and prone to failure since they are designed for a single condition, while robust systems can absorb variations without compromising function. The document provides a theorem showing that for response surfaces, systems are less likely to remain in a state of optimality due to entropy naturally increasing over time. It concludes that nature favors robust, fit systems over optimal ones, and engineering could benefit from embracing robustness over fragile optimality in design.
aiaamdo
This document summarizes a paper that argues optimization is an outdated paradigm in computer-aided engineering (CAE). Stochastic simulation is proposed as a better alternative that can account for uncertainty and complexity in a more complete way. Optimization focuses too much on numerical details rather than physics. Nature produces robust, "good enough" designs through self-organization and emergence rather than optimization. Stochastic simulation using Monte Carlo techniques can replace optimization by evaluating design performance across many random samples to find robust, high-performing designs rather than strictly optimal ones. This paradigm of stochastic simulation and design improvement is argued to provide a simpler and more effective approach for engineering problems.
nafems_1999
This document discusses recent trends in finite element modeling (FEM) with a focus on managing uncertainty. It argues that classical deterministic FEM approaches are insufficient and that stochastic methods are needed. Stochastic techniques allow simulation-based analysis and design instead of just analysis. The document outlines sources of uncertainty including loads, boundary conditions, material properties, and geometry. It also discusses modeling uncertainty and presents typical coefficient of variation values for aerospace materials and loads. Overall it advocates treating uncertainty as inherent to engineering problems in order to improve design and innovation in computational modeling.
pam_1997
1) A large-scale stochastic automotive crash simulation was performed using 128 parallel simulations on a Cray T3E supercomputer. This allowed analysis of the statistical effects of uncertainties in vehicle properties and crash conditions.
2) Results showed the deterministic single-point analyses produced conservative designs and did not capture the most likely responses. Intrusion values from stochastic analysis had higher means and different most probable values than the deterministic analyses.
3) The impact angle had a large influence on responses like intrusion based on scatter plots, showing a chaotic relationship and inability to control intrusions through angle variation. The stochastic analysis provided more insight than deterministic analysis alone.
NW_Complexity_article
The document discusses the concept of complexity and how it can be measured and applied. It introduces Dr. Jacek Marczyk, who developed a system called OntoSpace to measure complexity in various systems. Marczyk used OntoSpace to analyze CIA data and predict the collapse of global society between 2040-2045 due to reaching a critical complexity threshold. Every system has an upper limit of complexity before it cannot naturally evolve further. Marczyk warns that pursuing perfect optimization and maximum returns makes systems more fragile as they approach their complexity boundaries. Understanding complexity will be important for managing global risks in the future.
NAFEMS_Complexity_CAE
- If CAE is to cope with increasing product complexity, complexity must enter the design process. New technology allows engineers to measure a design's complexity and use it as a target.
- A product's fragility is the product of its complexity and the uncertainty of its environment. More complex products require more stringent manufacturing to survive in an uncertain environment.
- Complexity is a function of a system's structure, represented by information flow maps, and entropy, which measures uncertainty in interactions. Process maps show critical components called hubs that greatly impact functionality if lost. Measuring complexity allows defining and quantifying a system's robustness.
paper_ANEC_2010
This study aimed to assess whether heart rate (HR) complexity and entropy indices, calculated from 24-hour HR data retrieved from cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) devices, could predict adverse clinical outcomes in heart failure patients at 1-year follow-up. HR data were analyzed from 60 CRT patients using both traditional linear indices (mean HR, SDANN, footprint area) stored in the devices, as well as novel nonlinear complexity (HR-Co) and entropy (HR-En) indices calculated using a specific algorithm. Results showed HR-Co and HR-En were highly correlated with traditional indices and lower baseline complexity values were associated with worse clinical outcomes at 1 year, representing a more compromised autonomic function.
More Related Content
More from Jacek Marczyk
aiaamdo
This document summarizes a paper that argues optimization is an outdated paradigm in computer-aided engineering (CAE). Stochastic simulation is proposed as a better alternative that can account for uncertainty and complexity in a more complete way. Optimization focuses too much on numerical details rather than physics. Nature produces robust, "good enough" designs through self-organization and emergence rather than optimization. Stochastic simulation using Monte Carlo techniques can replace optimization by evaluating design performance across many random samples to find robust, high-performing designs rather than strictly optimal ones. This paradigm of stochastic simulation and design improvement is argued to provide a simpler and more effective approach for engineering problems.
nafems_1999
This document discusses recent trends in finite element modeling (FEM) with a focus on managing uncertainty. It argues that classical deterministic FEM approaches are insufficient and that stochastic methods are needed. Stochastic techniques allow simulation-based analysis and design instead of just analysis. The document outlines sources of uncertainty including loads, boundary conditions, material properties, and geometry. It also discusses modeling uncertainty and presents typical coefficient of variation values for aerospace materials and loads. Overall it advocates treating uncertainty as inherent to engineering problems in order to improve design and innovation in computational modeling.
pam_1997
1) A large-scale stochastic automotive crash simulation was performed using 128 parallel simulations on a Cray T3E supercomputer. This allowed analysis of the statistical effects of uncertainties in vehicle properties and crash conditions.
2) Results showed the deterministic single-point analyses produced conservative designs and did not capture the most likely responses. Intrusion values from stochastic analysis had higher means and different most probable values than the deterministic analyses.
3) The impact angle had a large influence on responses like intrusion based on scatter plots, showing a chaotic relationship and inability to control intrusions through angle variation. The stochastic analysis provided more insight than deterministic analysis alone.
NW_Complexity_article
The document discusses the concept of complexity and how it can be measured and applied. It introduces Dr. Jacek Marczyk, who developed a system called OntoSpace to measure complexity in various systems. Marczyk used OntoSpace to analyze CIA data and predict the collapse of global society between 2040-2045 due to reaching a critical complexity threshold. Every system has an upper limit of complexity before it cannot naturally evolve further. Marczyk warns that pursuing perfect optimization and maximum returns makes systems more fragile as they approach their complexity boundaries. Understanding complexity will be important for managing global risks in the future.
NAFEMS_Complexity_CAE
- If CAE is to cope with increasing product complexity, complexity must enter the design process. New technology allows engineers to measure a design's complexity and use it as a target.
- A product's fragility is the product of its complexity and the uncertainty of its environment. More complex products require more stringent manufacturing to survive in an uncertain environment.
- Complexity is a function of a system's structure, represented by information flow maps, and entropy, which measures uncertainty in interactions. Process maps show critical components called hubs that greatly impact functionality if lost. Measuring complexity allows defining and quantifying a system's robustness.
paper_ANEC_2010
This study aimed to assess whether heart rate (HR) complexity and entropy indices, calculated from 24-hour HR data retrieved from cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) devices, could predict adverse clinical outcomes in heart failure patients at 1-year follow-up. HR data were analyzed from 60 CRT patients using both traditional linear indices (mean HR, SDANN, footprint area) stored in the devices, as well as novel nonlinear complexity (HR-Co) and entropy (HR-En) indices calculated using a specific algorithm. Results showed HR-Co and HR-En were highly correlated with traditional indices and lower baseline complexity values were associated with worse clinical outcomes at 1 year, representing a more compromised autonomic function.