CRFB Promises and Price Tags: A Fiscal Guide to the 2016 Election

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CRFB.org

CRFB.org
Current Law Debt Projections (Percent of GDP)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
1960 1970 1980 1990 200...

CRFB.org
The Consequences of Rising Debt
• Slower Growth: The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO)
projects the ...

CRFB.org
The Consequences of Rising Debt (cont’d)
• Inability to Respond to Next Crisis: Since the Great Recession began,
...

CRFB.org
Real Per Capita GNP Rises as Debt Falls
Sources: CBO, CRFB Calculations
$57,600
$67,800
$77,400
$57,600
$69,350
$...

CRFB.org
Social Security Beneficiaries Face Steep Cuts in 2034
add
$30,700
$24,200
$49,200
$38,800
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,...

CRFB.org
What Would Clinton and Trump
Do to the Debt?
7

CRFB.org
$1.20 $1.40
$0.05
-$0.25
-$10.50
-$0.65
$1.70
-$11.50
-$14
-$12
-$10
-$8
-$6
-$4
-$2
$0
$2
$4
Revenue Primary Spe...

CRFB.org
18.1% 18.6%
13.6%
4.0% 4.1%
9.0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Revenue Spending Interest Deficit
Current Law Clinton’s Pr...

CRFB.org
Debt Under Candidates’ Proposals (Percent of GDP)
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2010 2012 2014 20...

CRFB.org
Key Findings Under Central Estimates for Each Candidate (2017-2026)
11

CRFB.org
Details of Their Plans
12

CRFB.org
Summary of Candidates’ Policy Proposals (Cost/ Savings (-))
+<0.5%
13

CRFB.org
Summary of
Hillary Clinton’s
Major
Campaign
Proposals
14

CRFB.org
College
Education
$350 billion
Early Ed & Child Care
$200 billion
Other
Spending
$250 billion
Infrastructure
$300...

CRFB.org
Summary
of Donald
Trump’s
Major
Campaign
Proposals
16

CRFB.org
Individual Statutory Tax Rates Under Candidates’ Plans
Statutory marginal ordinary income tax rates for a married...

CRFB.org
The
Candidates,
Side by Side
18

CRFB.org
Remember: Interest is the Fastest Growing Part of the Budget
22%
44%
84% 93%
276% 280%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%...

CRFB.org
What Would It Take
to Get Debt Under Control?
20

CRFB.org
What Would It Take to Fix the Debt?
• Under current law, it would require $2.9 trillion over a decade to
stabiliz...

CRFB.org
Real Economic Growth Rate Needed Under Our Central Estimates
(Annual Average Real GDP Growth)
2.3%
4.6%
2.9%
5.4%...

CRFB.org
Spending Cuts Needed Under Our Central Estimates
(Percent of All 10-Year Primary Spending)
< 1%
22%
6%
27%
15%
37...

CRFB.org
Spending Cuts Needed, Exempting Social Security & Medicare,
Under Our Central Estimates
(Percent of 10-Year Prima...

CRFB.org
<25.5%
22.5%
28.5% 27.5%
33.5%
30.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Clinton Trump Clinton Trump Clinton Trump
...

CRFB.org
Tax Increases on High Earners Needed Under Our Central Estimates
(Percentage Point Tax Rate, Individuals Making o...

CRFB.org
Additional Information
27

CRFB.org
Uninsured Almost Double Under TrumpCare
27 million
49 million
48 million
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Currently Projected ...

CRFB.org
Trump’s Drug Negotiation Savings Estimate Doesn’t Add Up
Billions of Dollars Per Year
$111 billion
$0
$50
$100
$1...

CRFB.org
Reducing Fraud Is Not Enough To Save Social Security
*Amount needed for Social Security solvency represents the 2...

CRFB.org
Broad Social Security Expansions Cost As Much
As Most of Clinton’s Agenda
Source: Committee for a Responsible Fed...

CRFB.org
Taxing the Rich Helps a Lot, But Has Its Limits
Sources: CRFB calculations from Sanders campaign descriptions, Di...

CRFB.org
$15.25
$31.25
$2.80
-$18.80
-$30
-$20
-$10
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
Revenue Primary Spending Interest Surplus/Deficit (...

CRFB.org
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
2010 2014 2018 2022 2026
Sanders Campaign Estimate
CRFB Estimate
Current Law
Debt-to-...

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