Electoral Reform Models - Prof. Rohan Samarajiva / Dr. Sujatha Gamage - Manthri.lk

1. Electoral Reforms in Sri Lanka: Simulations using data from past general elections of 2000, 2001, 2004 and 2010
(A ) CURRENT MODEL, 196+29 (B) NZ MODEL, 125+100 (C) PSC-1, 125+75+25 (D) PSC-2, 140+70+15 (E) PSC-3, 160+60+5
(A1) Distribution of votes, National (B1) Distribution of votes, National (C1) Distribution of votes, National (D1) Distribution of votes, National (E1) Distribution of votes, National
UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHERALL UPFA UNP OTHERALL
2000-G 45% 40% 15% 8,633,994 2000-G 45% 40% 15% 8,633,994 2000-G 45% 40% 15% 8,633,994 2000-G 45% 40% 15% 8,633,994 2000-G 45% 40% 15% 8,633,994
2001-G 37% 46% 17% 8,955,869 2001-G 37% 46% 17% 8,955,869 2001-G 37% 46% 17% 8,955,869 2001-G 37% 46% 17% 8,955,869 2001-G 37% 46% 17% 8,955,869
2004-G 46% 38% 17% 9,239,608 2004-G 46% 38% 17% 9,239,608 2004-G 46% 38% 17% 9,239,608 2004-G 46% 38% 17% 9,239,608 2004-G 46% 38% 17% 9,239,608
2010-G 60% 29% 10% 8,033,692 2010-G 60% 29% 10% 8,033,692 2010-G 60% 29% 10% 8,033,692 2010-G 60% 29% 10% 8,033,692 2010-G 60% 29% 10% 8,033,692
(A2) Distribution of seats in Parliament (B2) Distribution of seats in Parliament (C2) Distribution of seats in Parliament (D2) Distribution of seats in Parliament (E2) Distribution of seats in Parliament
SLFP/PA/UPFA/MEPUNP/UNFOTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL
2000-G 107 89 29 225 2000-G 102 91 33 225 2000-G 109 81 35 225 2000-G 114 77 34 225 2000-G 119 70 36 225
2001-G 77 109 39 225 2001-G 84 103 39 225 2001-G 76 110 39 225 2001-G 72 115 38 225 2001-G 65 120 40 225
2004-G 105 82 38 225 2004-G 103 85 37 225 2004-G 107 82 36 225 2004-G 112 78 36 225 2004-G 116 70 39 225
2010-G 144 60 21 225 2010-G 136 66 23 225 2010-G 127 68 31 225 2010-G 133 62 30 225 2010-G 140 52 33 225
(A3) Deviation from simple PR (B3) Deviation from simple PR (C3) Deviation from simple PR (D3) Deviation from simple PR (E3) Deviation from simple PR
SLFP/PA/UPFA/MEPUNP/UNFOTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL
2000-G 2.4% -0.9% -1.6% - 2000-G0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 2000-G 3% -4% 1% - 2000-G 5% -6% 0% 2000-G 8% -9% 2% -
2001-G-3.1% 2.9% 0.1% - 2001-G0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 2001-G -4% 3% 0% - 2001-G -5% 6% 0% 2001-G -8% 8% 1% -
2004-G 1.1% -1.3% 0.2% - 2004-G0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 2004-G 2% -1% 0% - 2004-G 4% -3% -1% 2004-G 6% -7% 1% -
2010-G 3.9% -2.9% -1.0% - 2010-G0.0% 0.0% 0.0% - 2010-G -4% 1% 3% - 2010-G -1% -2% 3% 2010-G 2% -6% 4% -
(A4) Not applicable (B4) FPP (125, 55% of Total) (C4) FPP (125, 55% total ) (D4) FPP (140, 62% of total ) (E4) FPP (160, 71% of total)
UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHERALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL
2000-G - - - - 2000-G 85 27 13 125 2000-G 85 27 13 125 2000-G 95 30 15 140 2000-G 109 34 17 160
2001-G - - - - 2001-G 25 84 16 125 2001-G 25 84 16 125 2001-G 28 95 18 140 2001-G 32 108 20 160
2004-G - - - - 2004-G 83 26 16 125 2004-G 83 26 16 125 2004-G 93 29 18 140 2004-G 106 33 21 160
2010-G - - - - 2010-G 106 7 12 125 2010-G 106 7 12 125 2010-G 119 8 13 140 2010-G 136 9 15 160
(A5) PR, District basis (196) (B5) 'Other persons from second ballot (C5) PR based on 'remainder' votes (75) (D5) PR based on 'remainder' votes (70) (E5) PR based on 'remainder' votes (60)
UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL
2000-G 94 77 25 196 2000-G 17 64 19 100 2000-G 13 44 18 75 2000-G 12 41 17 70 2000-G 10 36 14 60
2001-G 66 96 34 196 2001-G 59 18 23 100 2001-G 41 15 19 75 2001-G 39 14 18 70 2001-G 33 12 15 60
2004-G 92 71 33 196 2004-G 20 59 21 100 2004-G 13 46 16 75 2004-G 12 43 15 70 2004-G 10 37 13 60
2010-G 127 51 18 196 2010-G 29 59 12 100 2010-G 5 53 17 75 2010-G 5 50 15 70 2010-G 4 43 13 60
(A6) Other persons (29, national list) (B6) Not applicable (C6) Other persons (25, national list) (D6) Other persons (15, national list) (E6) Reservation for small parties (5)
UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL UPFA UNP OTHER ALL
2000-G 13 12 4 29 2000-G - - - - 2000-G 11 10 4 25 2000-G 7 6 2 15 2000-G 5 5
2001-G 11 13 5 29 2001-G - - - - 2001-G 9 11 4 25 2001-G 6 7 3 15 2001-G 5 5
2004-G 13 11 5 29 2004-G - - - - 2004-G 11 9 4 25 2004-G 7 6 2 15 2004-G 5 5
2010-G 17 9 3 29 2010-G - - - - 2010-G 15 7 3 25 2010-G 9 4 2 15 2010-G 5 5
PSC: Parliamentary select committee
DRAFT for discussion only; gamage@gmail.com, p.1 of 1