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Chapter 7
The Macroeconomy: Unemployment,
Inflation, and Deflation
„ Overview
In this chapter, the key concepts in macroeconomics of business fluctuations, unemployment, inflation,
and deflation are introduced. These concepts are discussed at length and their interrelationships are
examined. It is important to stress that the definition, measurement, and interpretation of each of these
concepts are somewhat arbitrary. Economists have agreed upon definitions of the terms that may differ from
their popular meanings. One should be aware that these differences exist and be extremely careful when
discussing these terms because each of these words may provoke an emotional response.
„ Learning Objectives
After studying this chapter, students should be able to:
• 7.1 Explain how the U.S. government calculates the official unemployment rate
• 7.2 Discuss the types of unemployment
• 7.3 Describe how price indexes are calculated and define the key types of price indexes
• 7.4 Evaluate who loses and who gains from inflation and distinguish between nominal and real interest
rates
• 7.5 Understand key features of business fluctuations
„ Outline
I. Unemployment: Unemployment is the number of adults (16 years or older) who are willing and
able to work and who are actively looking for work but have not found a job.
A. Historical Unemployment Rates: The proportion of the labor force that is unemployed. The
labor force is the number of persons 16 years of age or older who have jobs plus the number
who are looking and available for jobs. (See Figure 7-1.)
B. Employment, Unemployment, and the Labor Force: All persons 16 years of age and over
can be classified as not in the labor force (i.e., homemakers and those in school), employed,
or unemployed. Then the employed are subtracted from the labor force to get the unemployed.
The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed divided by the labor force times 100.
(See Figure 7-2.)
C. The Arithmetic Determination of Unemployment: The number of unemployed is a stock
while the number getting jobs and losing jobs is a flow concept. As long as the flows are equal,
the unemployment rate is constant. (See Figure 7-3.)
1. Categories of Individuals Who Are Without Work: A person is considered unemployed
in any of the following instances:
96 Miller • Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
a. A job loser: A person who was involuntarily terminated or laid off (40–60 percent of
the unemployed)
b. A reentrant: A person who has worked full-time before but who left the labor force
(20–30 percent of the unemployed)
c. A job leaver: A person who voluntarily ended employment (10–15 percent of the
unemployed)
d. A new entrant: A person who has never worked at a full-time job for more than two
weeks (10–15 percent of the unemployed)
2. Duration of Unemployment: The duration of unemployment is inversely related to the
overall level of economic activity. The average duration of unemployment over the past
25 years has been at least 16 weeks.
3. The Discouraged Worker Phenomenon: Individuals who have stopped looking for jobs
because they do not believe that they can find a suitable one are called discouraged
workers.
4. Labor Force Participation: The proportion of noninstitutionalized working age persons
who are in the labor force. The statistic can be computed for any group.
II. The Major Types of Unemployment
A. Frictional Unemployment: Unemployment due to the fact that workers must search for
appropriate job offers. This takes time, so they remain temporarily unemployed.
B. Structural Unemployment: Unemployment resulting from a poor match of workers’ skills and
abilities with current requirements of employers. It also includes persons who are unemployed
because of labor-market policies by government that make it expensive to employ workers
(e.g., social insurance programs) and to fire them or lay them off by closing plants.
C. Cyclical Unemployment: Unemployment resulting from recession.
D. Full Employment and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: Full employment does not mean
that everyone has a job. The transactions costs in the labor market are not zero.
1. Full Employment: A level of unemployment that corresponds to frictional unemployment
in the labor market.
2. The Natural Rate of Unemployment: The rate of unemployment that is estimated to
prevail in long-run macroeconomic equilibrium, when all workers and employers have
fully adjusted to any changes in the economy. It includes only frictional and structural
unemployment and is currently estimated to be roughly 5 percent.
III. Inflation and Deflation: The situation in which the average of all prices of goods and services in
an economy is rising is called inflation. Deflation is a situation in which the average of all prices in
an economy is falling.
A. The Inflation and the Purchasing Power of Money: The value of a person’s money income
in buying goods and services is its purchasing power or the real value of the money. The price
of anything expressed in today’s dollars. The purchasing power of money varies inversely with
the price level.
B. Measuring the Rate of Inflation: Inflation is measured by a price index.
C. Computing a Price Index: A fixed quantity price index is the cost of today’s market basket
of goods expressed as a percentage of the cost of the same market basket in a base year. It is
computed by dividing the cost of today’s market basket by the cost of that same market basket
in the base year times 100. (See Table 7-1.)
1. Real-World Price Indexes
a. The CPI: The CPI is a weighted average of a specified set of goods and services
purchased by consumers in urban areas.
Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 97
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b. The PPI: A statistical measure of a weighted average of prices of goods and services
that firms produce and sell.
c. The GDP Deflator: The GDP Deflator is a price index that measures the changes in
prices of all new final goods and services produced in the economy.
d. The PCE Index: A statistical measure of average prices using annually updated
weights based on surveys of consumer spending.
e. Historical Changes in the CPI (See Figure 7-4.)
IV. Anticipated Versus Unanticipated Inflation: Unanticipated inflation is inflation that comes as a
surprise. Anticipated inflation is the inflation rate that we believe will occur and can be either
higher or lower than the actual rate.
A. Inflation and Interest Rates: The nominal interest rate is the market rate of interest. The real
rate of interest is the nominal rate minus the anticipated rate of inflation. Evidence shows that
inflation rates and nominal interest rates move together.
B. Does Inflation Necessarily Hurt Everyone?
1. Unanticipated Inflation: Creditors Lose and Debtors Gain: Creditors lose because the
debtor is charged an interest rate that does not cover the actual inflation rate. If
unanticipated inflation is greater than actual inflation, creditors gain, and debtors lose.
2. Protecting Against Inflation: Banks and other lenders raise interest rates to protect
themselves from anticipated inflation. Workers seek cost-of-living adjustments, i.e.,
automatic increases in wage rates to offset inflation.
3. The Resource Cost of Inflation: Businesses and individuals use resources to protect
themselves from inflation, e.g., re-pricing goods and services. The resources could have
been used to produce additional goods and services.
V. Changing Inflation and Unemployment: Business Fluctuations: These are the ups (expansions)
and downs (contractions) in business activity throughout the economy. A recession is a contraction
or downturn in the level of business activity. The dating of recessions is done by the National Bureau
of Economic Research. (See Figure 7-5.)
A. A Historical Picture of Business Activity in the United States: Historical changes in U.S.
business activity are shown in Figure 7-6.
B. Explaining Business Fluctuations: External Shocks: Although many downturns in economic
activity have been caused by external shocks to the economy (e.g., war, changes in oil prices,
and weather), many others have occurred without any external shock. A macroeconomic theory
is needed to explain business cycles and is presented in later chapters. Leading indicators are
events that have been found to exhibit changes before changes in business activity.
„ Points to Emphasize
Definitions in Economic Measurement
It is helpful to point out that the words “recession,” “unemployment,” and “inflation” mean different
things to different people. It is thus important to define them so that everyone understands what each
word means. It is also important to be able to measure these phenomena. Economists define these
concepts operationally. An operational definition is one that allows the measurement of a concept. Thus if
each of us applies the same operational definition to these concepts, we should all arrive at the same
quantitative measurement. Various scientists have similar problems. Psychologists use words like
“stress,” “anxiety,” and “frustration.” Unless these words are defined operationally, psychologists will
arrive at radically different interpretations of given events.
98 Miller • Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Changes in the Economic Status: Recession and Expansion
The text stresses that recessions and expansions are relative concepts. As such, deviations from the trend
growth rate of real GDP can be thought of as recessions or expansions. When the growth rate is above the
trend rate, there is said to be an expansion. It is possible, too, that real output can be increasing, yet a
recession could exist if the output growth is less than the normal trend. This is only one definition of
recession. Some define a recession as a situation in which real GDP remains constant for two consecutive
quarters; others define a recession as a situation in which real GDP falls for two consecutive quarters;
still others (including the “official” business cycle daters) use real GDP changes and other criteria as well.
Because “recession” is such an emotional term, students can usually be drawn into a discussion of what
recession really means. It is interesting that the outcomes of political elections are said to be significantly
influenced by whether a recession or an expansion was “caused” by the current office holders.
The Unemployment Rate
“Unemployment” is as elusive a term as is “recession.” The unemployment rate is the ratio of the
unemployed to the labor force. Yet each of these terms is difficult to measure. Students should be aware
that the unemployment rate figures that they hear and read about are operationally, and therefore arbitrarily,
defined.
Homemakers are engaged in productive activity. Yet the current operational definition of the labor force
does not include them. If it did, the official unemployment rate would be lower. How should the
voluntarily unemployed be treated? Are they really in the labor force and are they really unemployed?
The existence of these two groups implies that the unemployment rate is overstated. So does the fact that
some people who do not want to work say that they do want to work in order to collect unemployment
compensation and certain welfare benefits. Still other people work in the underground economy (in illegal
or otherwise legal activities), collecting social welfare benefits and listed as unemployed. Some workers
have been out of work for so long, or feel that their chances for employment are so poor, that they have
given up looking for a job. These so-called “discouraged” workers are not officially defined as being in
the labor force and therefore are not officially unemployed; some economists feel that the discouraged
worker phenomenon understates unemployment rates.
Frictional, Structural, and Full Employment
Individuals usually think of full employment as being a situation in which there is no unemployment. Full
employment is a rather vague, arbitrary concept. Because transactions costs in labor markets are positive,
there will always be some frictional unemployment. Also, there will always be structural unemployment
because of changing technology and shifts in demand. Thus the level of full employment is defined by the
sum of frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Even these, in practice, are slippery
concepts. So, economists now generally use the natural rate of unemployment concept, which is the
unemployment rate that is estimated to prevail in the long run, when all workers and employers have
adjusted to a change in the economy. Conceptually, it would thus not include cyclical unemployment.
Inflation
Inflation evokes strong emotional reactions, yet an operational definition is simply a sustained increase in
the price level as measured by a price index. A price index is a very imperfect measure of the price level.
Most price indexes are fixed-weight indexes in which the weights are the quantities purchased in a base
period. Changes in relative prices will result in changes in relative quantities demanded. Thus price
indexes overstate inflation. Also, quality changes, especially in services, are difficult to measure and are
essentially ignored. The issue of quality can be illustrated using medical services. Ask students whether
they would prefer being treated for a life-threatening illness or injury with current medical technology and
knowledge or those of 10 to 20 years ago. Students never choose the older medical practices. An
Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 99
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
important question is whether many of the medical services available today are even the same services
that were available in the past.
Real and Nominal Interest Rates
The text examines the issue of real versus nominal interest rates under conditions of inflation. It is important
for students to be able to distinguish these two interest rate concepts. The economy is affected by real
interest rates. A nominal interest rate that is high by historical standards may nevertheless be associated with
a low or even negative real interest rate. If the rate of inflation is 15 percent and the nominal interest rate is
12 percent, then the real interest rate is −3 percent. Thus the lender is experiencing a 3 percent negative
return on his/her loan. The borrower is incurring a real cost of −3 percent. It is as if there was no inflation
and the lender was paying the borrower 3 percent to borrow the money.
„ For Those Who Wish to Stress Theory
Labor Surpluses and Agricultural Surpluses
For those who wish to emphasize theory, draw an analogy between labor surpluses (unemployment) and
agricultural surpluses. In order for agricultural surpluses to exist, prices must be above equilibrium and
not be allowed to fall. The resulting surpluses must be purchased and stored by individual farmers,
speculators, or the government. The same situation may exist for prolonged periods of surplus labor.
Wages tend not to fall because of unions or minimum-wage laws, and the surplus labor is “bought.”
Because unemployed workers are not likely to accept jobs that have far lower wages than those to which
they are accustomed, the unemployed, in effect, hire themselves to look for better jobs at higher wages
than they are currently being offered. Also, the government “buys” the surplus labor by paying workers
unemployment compensation, food stamps, and other social welfare benefits. Such benefits make it
worthwhile for workers to spend more time searching for higher wage rates.
Is Inflation a Purely Monetary Phenomenon?
Stating that inflation is purely a monetary phenomenon can generate controversy. Inflation arises when
the money supply is increased relative to the demand for money. This proposition can be illustrated as
follows:
1. Suppose the going exchange rate is 1 gallon of oil = 1 quart of milk. Assume that a major oil discovery
is made, other things held constant. There is an increase in the supply of oil relative to the demand
for oil; the relative price of oil falls. Assume that the new exchange rate is 2 gallons of oil = 1 quart
of milk. It now takes more units of oil to purchase the same quantity of milk.
2. If the money supply increases relative to the demand for money the relative price of money will fall;
it will now take more units of money to buy the same quantities of goods and services. This is what
is meant by inflation.
3. Inflation can be understood by using the tools of supply and demand. If the demand for money is
solely or primarily determined by a desire to purchase goods and services, then the demand for
money is directly related to the quantity of goods and services produced. An increase in output will
lead to an increase in the demand for money; a decrease in output will lead to a decrease in the
demand for money. If the supply of money continually increases relative to the demand for money
(the supply of goods and services) inflation will occur.
100 Miller • Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Does Inflation Hurt Everyone?
During periods of inflation some gain and some lose. If inflation is underestimated by contracting parties,
then workers who sign long-term contracts, moneylenders, and workers who do not have cost-of-living
clauses in their wage contracts will lose. Workers signing short-term contracts, borrowers, and workers
who do have cost-of-living contracts will gain or at least not be harmed. If some benefit from unanticipated
inflation while others are hurt, it is impossible to conclude (using positive economics) that inflation is
“bad” and that reducing inflation is “good.” Even those who claim that inflation abatement will reduce the
risks associated with contracts cannot claim universal benefits.
Cost-Push Inflation
It is a common theory that unions cause inflation or that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) causes inflation. It is widely believed that if unions increase wages, businesses will
merely pass these increases off as higher prices. This need not be true. In recent years, U.S. industries,
facing global competition from imports, have found that they cannot raise prices by much, if at all.
Assume that all unionized industries do pass on higher wages in higher prices. What will happen is that
(to the extent that wage increases exceed increases in productivity) union workers will be laid off. This
situation will lead to an increase in the supply of labor into nonunionized industries, ceteris paribus, and
wages will fall there. This will lead to a decrease in the prices of nonunion goods. The net effect is hard to
predict; the price level may or may not rise.
If OPEC causes the price of crude oil to rise, which leads to an increase in price of its distillates sold in
the United States, the U.S. price level will rise if such relative price changes shift the short-run aggregate
supply curve upward. Both real national output and the price level will fall ceteris paribus, and the
demand for oil will decrease, causing the price of oil to decrease.
„ Further Questions for Class Discussion
1. Social Security cost-of-living adjustments are based on the increase in the CPI between the third
quarter of the previous year and the third quarter of the current year. The percentage increase is
then applied to Social Security benefits beginning in January of the next year. In 2010 and 2011,
Social Security recipients did not receive cost-of-living adjustments to their monthly benefits
because the consumer price index had not risen above the level at the end of the third quarter of
2008 and by the third quarter of either 2009 or 2010. Seniors were outraged that they had not
received the annual cost-of-living increase to which they had become accustomed. Was their outrage
justifiable? No. The cost of living based on the CPI was lower on the adjustment dates than it had
been in 2008. They had, in effect, received an increase in purchasing power of their benefits
between the third quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2010 because the cost of living as
measured by the CPI was lower.
2. One interesting question to pose is as follows: Does a rise in the unemployment rate mean that there
is a weakening of the economy? It is generally believed that a higher unemployment rate means that
an increased number of workers have lost their jobs, and this would be due to worsening economic
conditions. In fact, an increase in the unemployment rate can occur if there is an increase in the
number of reentrants, job leavers, and/or new entrants above previous levels. If the economy
continues to create jobs at the same rate, i.e., the growth rate stays the same, the unemployment rate
increases. This phenomenon occurs regularly in May of each year, and the government seasonally
adjusts the unemployment rate to take it into account.
Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 101
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
3. During the recession of 2008–2009, many workers who lost their jobs were unable to afford to move
to a new job in a new city and pay rent or buy another home because they could not sell the home
they were in that still had mortgages. This was because of the crash of the housing market caused by
the financial meltdown associated with subprime mortgage lending. What effect would you expect
this to have on the natural unemployment rate? By reducing the mobility of labor, frictional
unemployment would have increased during that period. Because the natural unemployment rate
consists of frictional plus structural unemployment, the natural rate of unemployment would have
increased, ceteris paribus.
4. In practice, could nominal interest rates ever be zero in the economy? Yes, if deflation was expected.
In Japan, in the early 2000s, the nominal interest rate on some loans was zero. However, the
Japanese economy was experiencing deflation. If a lender expected deflation to be −3 percent and
wanted a real interest rate of 3 percent, then the nominal interest rate could be zero; that is, the
nominal interest rate equals the real interest rate of 3 percent plus a negative inflation rate of 3
percent. In simpler terms, the lender was being repaid in dollars that had 3 percent more purchasing
power than when the dollars were loaned out.
5. Could the real interest rate be negative in practice? How about the nominal interest rate? The real
interest rate could be negative if inflation is much higher than expected. For example, if the expected
rate of inflation was 5 percent and lenders wished to earn a real return of 3 percent, then the nominal
interest rate would be 8 percent. Suppose that the actual inflation rate turned out to be 9 percent. The
real interest rate that lenders actually earned would be equal to 8 percent nominal interest rate minus
9 percent actual rate of inflation, or −1 percent. The nominal interest rate by contrast would not fall
below zero. A negative interest rate would mean that lenders are paying borrowers to take out a loan.
A potential lender will be better off under any scenario by holding money rather than paying
someone to borrow from her.
„ Answers to Questions for Critical Analysis
A Shift toward More Part-Time Employment (p. 152)
Why do you suppose that the average weekly hours an average employed U.S. worker spends on the
job have dropped slightly since 2007?
A part-time job is a close substitute for a full-time job. When the unemployment rate increases and the
prospect of holding full-time job positions is not so bright, people will be more likely to hold part-time
positions at least temporarily.
An Increase in the Duration of Unemployment (p. 153)
Why do you suppose that someone who has been counted among the long-term unemployed usually
has a harder time finding a job than a person who otherwise has similar past work experience but
who has been out of work only a few weeks? (Hint: Employers tend to be wary of hiring people
whose work skills may have declined after lengthy intervals spent without jobs.)
Employers tend to be wary of hiring people whose work skills may have declined after lengthy intervals
without a job. As such, employers are less likely to hire someone who has been unemployed for a long
time than to hire someone with similar work experience but has been out of work only recently.
102 Miller • Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
The French Government Buys Lower Structural Unemployment (p. 155)
How might the French government’s subsidy policy fail to reduce structural unemployment if
funding subsidies for wages to young people requires raising taxes on employers? (Hint: Employers
sometimes respond to tax increases by reducing the number of workers they hire.)
Employers tend to respond to a tax increase by reducing the number of workers they hire. As such, there
will be no incentive for the employers to hire more young people if the French government funds the
subsidy policy for wages by raising taxes on those employers.
Consuming More Food Boosts Some Nations’ CPI Inflation Rates (p. 159)
Even if the base years for the CPIs were the same, why would it be a mistake to compare the value
of the 2015 CPI for the United States with the 2015 CPI for India?
Because the weights of individual expenditure categories in the CPI’s market basket are different between
the United States and India, it would be a mistake to compare their values of a given year.
Want to Be Led by an Indicator? There Are Apps for That! (p. 164)
Why might someone be willing to pay for access to leading indicators offered by private firms
instead of downloading a free Census Bureau app?
Leading economic indicators provide helpful information about the future direction of the economy,
which will in turn affect business activity. Some people might find those leading indicators offered by
some private firms more valuable than those provided by the Census Bureau.
„ You Are There
A Small-Business Skills Mismatch and Structural Unemployment (p. 165)
1. Why might small businesses reduce hiring if wages for scarce skilled workers rise? (Hint:
What does the demand curve for skilled workers look like?)
The demand curve for skilled workers is downward sloping, meaning that businesses will hire
fewer of them if their wages rise.
2. How might federal small-business regulations affect structural unemployment?
Federal small-business regulations affect the costs of doing business or the costs of hiring
employees. Businesses respond to higher hiring costs by hiring fewer workers. As such, structural
unemployment would increase.
Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 103
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
„ Issues and Applications
The U.S. Male Work Withdrawal (pp. 165–166)
1. Why does the overall level of employment often tend to increase as overall labor force
participation rises?
The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed people. The number of employed typically
exceeds the number of unemployed. Therefore, as more people join the labor force, the level of
employment tends to increase.
2. If male unemployment were to decrease at the same time that male labor force participation
declines, does the male unemployment rate necessarily drop? Explain briefly. (Hint: The male
unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed males divided by the number of males
in the labor force.)
The male unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed males divided by the number of
males in the labor force. The number of males in the labor force is the sum of unemployed males
and employed males. If the number of unemployed males decreases at the same time as the male
labor force participation rate drops, then the amount of reduction in the male labor force is smaller
than the amount of reduction in the number of unemployed males. As such, the male unemployment
rate decreases.
„ Answers to Problems
7-1. Suppose that you are given the following information (See page 151.):
Total population 300.0 million
Adult, noninstitutionalized, nonmilitary population 200.0 million
Unemployment 7.5 million
a. If the labor force participation rate is 70 percent, what is the labor force?
b. How many workers are employed?
c. What is the unemployment rate?
a. Multiplying the fraction of people who participate in the labor force, 0.7, times the adult,
noninstitutionalized, nonmilitary population of 200.0 million yields a labor force of 140.0
million.
b. Subtracting the 7.5 million unemployed from the labor force of 140.0 million yields 132.5
million people who are employed.
c. Dividing the 7.5 million unemployed by the 140.0 million in the labor force and multiplying
by 100 yields an unemployment rate of about 5.36 percent.
104 Miller • Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
7-2. Suppose that you are given the following information (see page 151):
Labor force 206.2 million
Adults in the military 1.5 million
Nonadult population 48.0 million
Employed adults 196.2 million
Institutionalized adults 3.5 million
Nonmilitary, noninstitutionalized adults not in labor force 40.8 million
a. What is the total population?
b. How many people are unemployed, and what is the unemployment rate?
c. What is the labor force participation rate?
a. Summing the labor force of 206.2 million, the 1.5 million adults in the military, the
40.8 million adults not in the labor force, the 48.0 million nonadults, and the 3.5 million
institutionalized adults yields a population of 300.0 million.
b. The number of people unemployed is equal to the labor force of 206.2 million minus the
196.2 million employed adults, or 10.0 million. Dividing the 10.0 million unemployed by the
206.2 million in the labor force and multiplying by 100 yields an unemployment rate of about
4.85 percent.
c. Adding the 206.2 million labor force and the 40.8 million adults not in the labor force but also
not in the military and not institutionalized yields 247.0 million nonmilitary, noninstitutionalized
adults. Hence, the labor force participation rate is equal to 206.2 million divided by 247.0
million times 100, or 83.5 percent.
7-3. Suppose that the U.S. nonmilitary, noninstitutionalized adult population is 224 million, the
number employed is 156 million, and the number unemployed is 8 million. (See page 151.)
a. What is the unemployment rate?
b. Suppose there is a difference of 60 million between the adult population and the
combined total of people who are employed and unemployed. How do we classify these
60 million people? Based on these figures, what is the U.S. labor force participation rate?
a. The labor force equals the number employed plus the number unemployed, or 156 million +
8 million = 164 million. In percentage terms, therefore, the unemployment rate is 100 times
8 million/164 million, or 4.9 percent.
b. These 60 million people are not in the labor force. The labor force participation rate is, in
percentage terms, 100 times 164 million/224 million, or 73.2 percent.
7-4. During the course of a year, the labor force consists of the same 1,000 people. Employers have
chosen not to hire 20 of these people in the face of government regulations making it too costly
to employ them. Hence, they remain unemployed throughout the year. At the same time,
every month during the year, 30 different people become unemployed, and 30 other different
people who were unemployed find jobs. (See pages 150–155.)
a. What is the frictional unemployment rate?
b. What is the unemployment rate?
c. Suppose that a system of unemployment compensation is established. Each month, 30
new people (not including the 20 that employers have chosen not to employ) continue to
become unemployed, but each monthly group of newly unemployed now takes two
months to find a job. After this change, what is the frictional unemployment rate?
Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 105
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
d. After the change discussed in part (c), what is the unemployment rate?
a. Thirty people are always unemployed due to job changes each month, so the frictional
unemployment rate is (30/1,000) × 100 = 3 percent.
b. Twenty people are structurally unemployed, and 30 people are frictionally unemployed. Hence,
50 people are unemployed, and the total unemployment rate is (50/1000) × 100 = 5 percent.
c. Now 60 people are always unemployed due to job changes each month, so 60 people are
frictionally unemployed. The frictional unemployment rate is (60/1000) × 100 × 6 percent.
d. Twenty people are structurally unemployed, and 60 people are frictionally unemployed.
Hence, 80 people are unemployed, and the unemployment rate is (80/1000) × 100 = 8 percent.
7-5. Suppose that a nation has a labor force of 100 people. In January, Amy, Barbara, Carine, and
Denise are unemployed. In February, those four find jobs, but Evan, Francesco, George, and
Horatio become unemployed. Suppose further that every month, the previous four who were
unemployed find jobs and four different people become unemployed. Throughout the year,
however, three people—Ito, Jack, and Kelley—continually remain unemployed because firms
facing government regulations view them as too costly to employ. (See page 154.)
a. What is this nation’s frictional unemployment rate?
b. What is its structural unemployment rate?
c. What is its unemployment rate?
a. Four of the 100 people are always continuously unemployed because they are between jobs, so
the frictional unemployment rate is (4/100) × 100 = 4 percent.
b. Three of the 100 people are always unemployed as a result of government regulations, so the
structural unemployment rate is (3/100) × 100 = 3 percent.
c. The unemployment rate is the sum of the frictional and structural rates of unemployment, or 7
percent.
7-6. In a country with a labor force of 200, a different group of 10 people becomes unemployed
each month, but becomes employed once again a month later. No others outside these groups
are unemployed. (See pages 150–155.)
a. What is this country’s unemployment rate?
b. What is the average duration of unemployment?
c. Suppose that establishment of a system of unemployment compensation increases to two
months the interval that it takes each group of job losers to become employed each
month. Nevertheless, a different group of 10 people still becomes unemployed each
month. Now what is the average duration of unemployment?
d. Following the change discussed in part (c), what is the country’s unemployment rate?
a. Ten new people become unemployed each month, so the unemployment rate is (10/200) × 100
= 5 percent.
b. one month
c. two months
d. Now, a total of 20 people are unemployed each month, so the unemployment rate is (20/200)
× 100 = 10 percent.
106 Miller • Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
7-7. A nation’s frictional unemployment rate is 1 percent. Its cyclical rate of unemployment is
3 percent, and its structural unemployment rate is 4 percent. What is this nation’s overall rate
of unemployment? (See pages 150–155.)
The overall unemployment rate is 8 percent, and the natural rate of unemployment is 5 percent.
7-8. In 2014, the cost of a market basket of goods was $2,000. In 2016, the cost of the same market
basket of goods was $2,100. Use the price index formula to calculate the price index for 2016 if
2014 is the base year. (See pages 157–158.)
The price index for 2016 if 2012 is the base year is ($2,100/$2,000 × 100) =105.0.
7-9. Suppose that in 2015, a typical U.S. student attending a state-supported college bought 10
textbooks at a price of $100 per book and enrolled in 25 credit hours of coursework at a price
of $360 per credit hour. In 2016, the typical student continued to purchase 10 textbooks and
enroll in 25 credit hours, but the price of a textbook rose to $110 per book, and the tuition
price increased to $400 per credit hour. The base year for computing a “student price index”
using this information is 2015. What is the value of the student price index in 2015? In 2016?
Show your work. (See pages 157–158.)
In 2015, the value of the price index is $10,000/$10,000 ×100 = 100. In 2016, the value of the
price index is $11,100/$10,000×100 = 111.
7-10. Between 2015 and 2016 in a particular nation, the value of the consumer price index—for
which the base year is 2012—rose by 9.091 percent, to a value of 120 in 2016. What was the
value of the price index in 2015? (See pages 157–158.)
120/1.091 = 110.
7-11. Consider the following price indexes: 90 in 2015, 100 in 2016, 110 in 2017, 121 in 2018, and
150 in 2019. Answer the following questions. (See pages 157–158.)
a. Which year is likely the base year?
b. What is the inflation rate from 2016 to 2017?
c. What is the inflation rate from 2017 to 2018?
d. If the cost of a market basket in 2016 is $2,000, what is the cost of the same basket of
goods and services in 2015? In 2019?
a. 2016
b. 10 percent
c. 10 percent
d. $1,800 in 2015; $3,000 in 2019
7-12. The real interest rate is 4 percent, and the nominal interest rate is 6 percent. What is the
anticipated rate of inflation? (See page 161.)
The anticipated inflation rate is the difference between the 6 percent nominal interest rate and the
4 percent real interest rate, or 2 percent
Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 107
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
7-13. Currently, the price index used to calculate the inflation rate is equal to 90. The general
expectation throughout the economy is that next year its value will be 99. The current
nominal interest rate is 12 percent. What is the real interest rate? (See page 161.)
The expected rate of inflation is equal to 100 × [(99 – 90)/90] = 10 percent. Hence the real interest
rate equals the difference between the 12 percent nominal interest rate and the 10 percent
anticipated inflation rate, or 2 percent
7-14. At present, the nominal interest rate is 7 percent, and the expected inflation rate is 5 percent.
The current year is the base year for the price index used to calculate inflation. (See page
161.)
a. What is the real interest rate?
b. What is the anticipated value of the price index next year?
a. The real interest rate is the difference between the 7 percent nominal interest rate and the
5 percent expected inflation rate, or 2 percent.
b. 105.0
7-15. Suppose that in 2019 there is a sudden, unanticipated burst of inflation. Consider the
situations faced by the following individuals. Who gains and who loses? (See pages 161–162.)
a. A homeowner whose wages will keep pace with inflation in 2019 but whose monthly
mortgage payments to a savings bank will remain fixed
b. An apartment landlord who has guaranteed to his tenants that their monthly rent
payments during 2019 will be the same as they were during 2018
c. A banker who made an auto loan that the auto buyer will repay at a fixed rate of interest
during 2019
d. A retired individual who earns a pension with fixed monthly payments from her past
employer during 2019
a. The homeowner gains; the savings bank loses.
b. The tenants gain; the landlord loses.
c. The auto buyer gains; the bank loses.
d. The employer gains; the pensioner loses.
108 Miller • Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
7-16. Consider the diagram below. The line represents the economy’s growth trend, and the curve
represents the economy’s actual course of business fluctuations. For each part below, provide
the letter label from the portion of the curve that corresponds to the associated term. (See
page 162.)
a. Contraction
b. Peak
c. Trough
d. Expansion
a. V
b. U
c. X
d. S
„ Selected References
Alchian, Arman A., “Information Costs, Pricing, and Resource Unemployment,” Western Economic
Journal, Vol. 7, June 1969, pp. 109–128.
Alchian, Arman A. and Reuben A. Kessel, “Redistribution of Wealth through Inflation,” Science, Vol.
130, No. 3375, September 4, 1959, pp. 535–539.
Brimmer, Andrew F., “Inflation and Income Distribution in the United States,” Review of Economics and
Statistics, Vol. 53, No. 1, February 1971, pp. 37–48.
Bronfenbrenner, Martin and Franklyn D. Holzman, “Survey of Inflation,” The American Economic
Review, Vol. 53, 1963.
Brozen, Yale, Automation—The Impact of Technological Change, Washington, D.C.: American
Enterprise Institute, 1963.
Cagan, Philip et al., A New Look at Inflation: Economic Policy in the Early 1970s, Washington, D.C.:
American Enterprise Institute, 1973.
Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 109
©2016 Pearson Education, Inc.
Campbell, Colin D., ed., Wage-Price Controls in World War II: United States and Germany, Washington,
D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1971.
Economic Indicators, January 1993, Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office.
Feldstein, Martin, “The Economics of the New Unemployment,” The Public Interest, Fall 1973.
Kessel, Reuben A. and Arman A. Alchian, “Effects of Inflation,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 70,
December 1962, pp. 521–537.
Miller, Roger L. and Robert W. Pulsinelli, Macroeconomics, New York: Harper and Row, 1986.
Phelps, Edmund S. et al., Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, New York:
W.W. Norton, 1970.
Schuettinger, Robert and Eamonn Butler, Forty Centuries of Wage and Price Controls, Washington,
DC: The Heritage Foundation, 1979.
Solow, Robert M., “The Intelligent Citizen’s Guide to Inflation,” The Public Interest, Vol. 38,
Winter 1974, pp. 30–66.
Another Random Scribd Document
with Unrelated Content
August 30, 1910; Kotchety. (From the letters.)—Sofya Andreyevna
went away from here yesterday, and took a very touching farewell of
me and Tanya and her husband, with evident sincerity begging
forgiveness of all with tears in her eyes. She is inexpressibly
pathetic. What will happen later I cannot imagine. "Do what you
ought before your conscience and God, and what will be will be," I
say to myself and try to act on it.
September 9, 1910; Kotchety. (From the letters.)—She was very
much irritated, not irritated (ce n'est pas le mot, that is not the right
word), but morbidly agitated. I underline that word. She is unhappy
and cannot control herself. I have only just been talking to her. She
came thinking I should go away with her, but I have refused without
fixing the date of my going away, and that greatly distressed her.
What I shall do later I don't know. I shall try to bear my cross day by
day.
September 16, 1910 (from the letters).—I am still as before in a
middling condition physically, and spiritually I try to look upon my
painful or rather difficult relations with Sofya Andreyevna as a trial
which is good for me, and which it depends upon myself to turn into
a blessing, but I rarely succeed in this. One thing I can say: not in
my brain but with my sides, as the peasants say, I have come to a
clear understanding of the difference between resistance which is
returning evil for evil, and the resistance of not giving way in those
of one's actions which one recognises as one's duty to one's
conscience and to God. I will try.
September 18, 1910 (from the letters).—I understand now from
experience that all that we call suffering is for our good.
October 6, 1910 (from the letters).—She is ill and all the rest of it,
but it is impossible not to pity her and not to be indulgent to her.
October 17, 1910 (from the letters).—Yesterday was a very serious
day. Others will describe the physical details to you, but I want to
give you my own account from the inside. I pity and pity her, and
rejoice that at times I love her without effort. It was so last night
when she came in penitent and began seeing about warming my
room, and in spite of her exhaustion and weakness pushed the
shutters and screened the windows, taking pains and trouble about
my ... bodily comfort. What's to be done if there are people for
whom, and I believe only for a time, the reality of spiritual life is
unattainable. Yesterday evening I was almost on the point of going
away to Kotchety, but now I am glad I did not go. To-day I feel
physically weak, but serene in spirit.
October 26, 1910 (from a diary).—It is very oppressive for me in this
house of lunatics.
October 26, 1910 (from the letters).—The third thing is not so much
a thought as a feeling, and a bad feeling—the desire to change my
position. I feel something unbefitting, rather shameful, in my
position. Sometimes I look upon it as I ought, as a blessing but
sometimes I struggle against it and am revolted....
October 27, 1910 (from a diary).—It seems bad but is really good;
the oppressiveness of our relations keeps increasing.
October 29, 1910 (from the letters).—I am waiting to see what will
come of the family deliberation—I think, good. In any case, however,
my return to my former life has become still more difficult—almost
impossible, owing to the reproaches which will now be showered
upon me, and the still smaller share of kindness which will be shown
me. I cannot and will not enter into any sort of negotiations—what
will be will be—only to sin as little as possible.... I cannot boast of
my physical and spiritual condition, they are both weak and
shattered. I feel most of all sorry for her. If only that pity were quite
free from an admixture of rancune (resentment), and that I cannot
boast of.
October 29, 1910; Optin Monastery. (From a diary.)—I have been
much depressed all day and physically weak.... As I came here I was
thinking all the time on the road, of the way out of my and her
position, and could not think of any way out of it, but yet there will
be one whether one likes it or not; it will come, and not be what one
foresees. Yes, think only of how to avoid sin, and let come what will
come. That is not my affair. I have taken up ... the Circle of Reading,
and, just now, reading Number Twenty-eight was struck by the
direct answer to my position: trial is what I need, it is beneficial for
me. I am going to bed at once. Help me, O Lord.
November 3, 1910; Station Astapovo. (From a diary; the last words
written by Leo Nikolaevitch in his diary.)—Fais ce que doit adv....[30]
And it is all for the best both for others and for me.
The extracts from the diary and letters of Tolstoy that have been
quoted, though far from exhausting all the material, show
sufficiently clearly what Leo Nikolaevitch had to endure in connection
with his family and domestic conditions in the course of the last
thirty years of his life. In it of course all aspects of his spiritual
growth are not touched upon, the whole course of his inner
development during that period is not explained. But what is
revealed to us in these extracts is sufficient to excite the warmest
sympathy for Leo Nikolaevitch in his great and prolonged ordeal, and
to inspire the deepest respect for his touching ability to blame
himself for everything, and always to strive not towards what he
desired but towards his duty. At the same time there is here
revealed to us in its general features the path by which he came to
the conviction that if we suffer spiritually we are ourselves to blame.
As is the case with everyone for whom the true meaning of life is
revealed, after Leo Nikolaevitch's inner awakening at the beginning
of the 'eighties, his spiritual consciousness could not, of course,
remain at the same point. And indeed from the fragments we have
quoted we see that up to the very last days of his life it was growing
and becoming more perfect, as he became more and more
penetrated with purity and strength.
Becoming convinced that in spite of all his sufferings he could not
draw his wife to take part in his efforts, Leo Nikolaevitch began to
experience the most agonising distress, which, as we see from his
diary of 1884, sometimes became so acute that he hardly had the
strength to endure it. He even had moments almost of despair and
as it were revolt against his fate, especially when he learned from
experience that his wife was too far away from him spiritually to be
his companion in the reorganisation of their lives. It was at such a
moment that there broke from him that agonising cry of a tortured
heart, that she would for ever remain a millstone round his neck and
his children's. But at the same time he tried to accept these
sufferings with meekness and submission as a trial laid upon him,
and to behave with love and patience to her who evoked them. So
about the same time, on one of those exceptionally rare occasions
when in conversation with me he permitted himself to touch on his
relations with his wife, he spoke approximately as follows:
"It is impossible to blame Sofya Andreyevna. It is not her fault that
she does not follow me. Why, what she clings to so obstinately now
is the very thing in which I trained her for many years. Apart from
that, in the early days of my awakening I was too irritable and
insisted on trying to convince her that I was right. In those days I
put my new conception of life before her in a form so repellent and
unacceptable to her that I quite put her off. And now I feel that
through my own fault she can never come to the truth by my way.
That door is closed for her. But, on the other hand, I notice with joy
that by ways peculiar to her alone, and quite incomprehensible to
me, she seems at times to be gradually moving in the same
direction."
About the same time Leo Nikolaevitch wrote to me:
"'He who loves not his brother, he dwelleth in death.' I have learned,
but to my cost. I did not love, I had malice against my neighbours,
and I was dying and dead. I began to be afraid of death; not afraid
exactly, but bewildered before it. But love had but to rise up and I
rose up again. I had forgotten Christ's first precept, 'Be not wrathful.'
So simple, so small and so immense! If there is one man whom one
does not love one is lost, one is dead. I have learned that by
experience."—(Letter, December 28, 1885.)
At that period of his life Leo Nikolaevitch wrote in his diary the
reflection which has already appeared in print concerning the
chloroform of love, which expresses with remarkable vividness his
recognition of the way we ought to help men who have gone astray:
"At first I thought, Can one point out to people their mistakes, their
sins, their faults, without hurting them? We have chloroform and
cocaine for physical pain, but not for the soul. I thought this, and at
once it came into my head, it is untrue—there is such a spiritual
chloroform. They perform the operation of amputating a leg or an
arm with chloroform, but they perform the operation of reforming a
man painfully, stifling the reform with pain, exciting the worse
disease—vindictiveness. But there is a spiritual chloroform, and it
has long been known,—always the same—love. And that is not all: in
physical disease one may do good by an operation without
chloroform, but the soul is such a sensitive creature that an
operation performed upon it without the chloroform of love is never
anything but injurious. Patients always know it and ask for
chloroform, and know that it ought to be used.... The sick man is in
pain and he screams, hides the sore spot and says, 'You won't heal
me, you won't heal me, and I don't want to be healed, I would
rather get worse if you cannot heal me without pain....' And he is
right ... you cannot drag a man straight out when he is tangled in a
net—you will hurt him. You must disentangle the netting gently and
firmly first. This delay, this disentangling, is the chloroform of love....
This I almost understood before, now I quite understand and begin
to feel it...."
(Tolstoy's diary, January 25, 1889. Cf. Biography of L. N. Tolstoy by
P. I. Biryukov, Vol. III. chap. iii.)
Striving to work out in himself a patient and loving attitude to the
erring, beginning with those who were nearest to him, Leo
Nikolaevitch from the earliest days of his domestic ordeal applied all
his spiritual forces to avoiding giving way to his spiritual sufferings
and throwing the blame for them either on people or on external
circumstances. And this consciousness was continually strengthened
and confirmed in him, helping him to bestow less and less pity on
himself and more and more pity on those at whose hands he
suffered. At first, as we have seen, such resignation to destiny was
attained only with the greatest spiritual effort; but gradually he
succeeded in conquering himself more and more by means of this
incessant struggle carried on for many years. Such, anyway, is, it
seems to me, the general deduction which may be drawn from his
diary and letters. This deduction is confirmed too by the immediate
impression which many of those to whose lot it fell to be in close
relations with Leo Nikolaevitch in his later years carried away from
personal intercourse with him. Even the expression of his face during
this last period often seemed lighted up with a peculiar spiritual
radiance. Such in its most general features is my conception of the
consistent growth of Leo Nikolaevitch's inner consciousness after his
spiritual awakening in so far as that growth is connected with his
domestic sufferings and going away from home. This conception has
been formed, on the one hand, on the basis of my personal intimacy
and my spiritual unity with Leo Nikolaevitch as well as my long,
intimate acquaintance with his family; and, on the other hand, on an
attentive study of all that Leo Nikolaevitch has at various times
expressed in his letters.
But the secret of another man's soul is too great and too intricate for
anyone to be able to assert with confidence that he has fully grasped
it even on any one side. And therefore while expressing here my
personal opinion so far as it can have significance for anyone, I feel
great satisfaction in the fact that I have been able to a considerable
extent to incorporate Leo Nikolaevitch's own words in this book. And
thus it will be possible for the reader to draw his own conclusions; at
least from those notes of Leo Nikolaevitch's which I have here
brought into connection with my argument, and to correct for
himself anything in which it may seem to him that I am mistaken. I
should like to conclude with two more thoughts of Leo Nikolaevitch's
which show his comprehension of the spiritual significance of
suffering.
"For a man living a spiritual life suffering is always an
encouragement to becoming more perfect and more enlightened,
and getting nearer to God. For such people suffering can always be
transformed into the business of life."—(Circle of Reading.)
"The cross that is laid upon us is that at which we ought to work.
Our whole life is this work. If the cross is illness, then bear it well,
with submission; if it is injury at the hands of men, know how to
return good for evil; if it is humiliation, be meek; if it is death, accept
it with gratitude."—(The Way of Life.)
FOOTNOTES
[26] To what precisely Leo Nikolaevitch ascribed his realisation
that in 1870 the "cord had snapped" in the relations between him
and his wife I am not in a position to state with certainty. I can
only say for the information of the reader that I heard from Leo
Nikolaevitch that their relations began to change for the worse
from the time when Sofya Andreyevna, contrary to his principles
and desire, refused to nurse her second daughter Marya Lvovna,
born 1870, and engaged a wet nurse for her who was taken away
from her own baby.
[27] It may interest the reader to know that on June 18 Sofya
Andreyevna gave birth to her youngest daughter, Alexandra.—
Translator's note.
[28] At that period Leo Nikolaevitch's attitude of disapproval of
property was beginning to take definite shape. In consequence he
did not wish to make use of the revenues from his estate in
Samara, considering it unjust to make the peasants work for him
and his family. Even the income which his family received from
the Yasnaya Polyana estate and from the sale by Sofya
Andreyevna of his works he considered as unjust, though he did
not yet see clearly how he ought to act in the matter, considering
his duties to his family.
[29] Compare entry for June 7.
[30] An unfinished French proverb; translated in full it means,
"Do what you ought and let come what may."
APPENDIX I
In view of the fact that Leo Nikolaevitch's diaries and letters have
not yet been published in their entirety, I think it essential to make a
note in connection with the character of the extracts which I have
made from them in this book. These passages have been selected
with the special object of illustrating Leo Nikolaevitch's attitude to
suffering in general and to his own sufferings in particular. Owing to
this, their context is inevitably one-sided and cannot give a general
idea of his prevailing spiritual mood during the last thirty years of his
life. That general mood, in spite of the conditions which oppressed
Leo Nikolaevitch externally, was doubtless one of joy in life, in
accordance with the characteristics of his nature, and filled with
inner satisfaction, as all those who were in close communication with
him for any length of time during that period can testify. And in this
fact, i.e. in his preserving those characteristics in spite of all the
trials to which he was subjected throughout that whole period, I see
one of the most remarkable aspects of his heroic endurance.
Indeed one has but for one moment to enter in spirit into his
position at that time to be truly amazed at what he succeeded in
attaining in his inner life. Love for freedom in general and for
personal independence was to an exceptional degree characteristic
of his powerful personality. The demands of creative work attracted
him to prolonged absences far from home in the midst of the most
varied natural scenery, and the most different strata of humanity.
The working of his mind after his spiritual awakening required the
closest association with working people. For the satisfaction of his
spiritual needs he required the possibility of receiving unhindered in
his house all and each of those with whom he would have liked to
hold intercourse, without any limitation or restriction, and
consequently to show hospitality, to seat at his table on occasions,
to put up for the night both the peasant of the district who had
come to pay him a visit, and the passing pilgrim weary from the
road, and the visitor who had come from afar seeking spiritual
intercourse and help.... And of all this so needful to Tolstoy as artist
and thinker, and above all as a man leading a spiritual life,—of all
this he was deprived, thanks to the egoism of his family and the
class prejudices ruling in his house, in which a woman's self-will was
paramount. Being completely indifferent to his spiritual needs and
callous to his sufferings, Sofya Andreyevna expected him in his old
age, as in the first period of their life, to be continually at her side in
spite of the spiritual change that had taken place in her husband,
and only rarely agreed to his being absent for short intervals, and
then with the greatest difficulty. Leo Nikolaevitch could not refuse
these demands of hers without destroying the very small share of
domestic peace without which his life in the home would have lost
any sort of meaning. And in spite of all the oppressiveness of these
domestic conditions, which defy description in words and, lasting as
they did over thirty years, for us ordinary people would have been
truly shattering, Leo Nikolaevitch, far from giving way to despair, did
not even complain of his fate. On the contrary, he blamed himself for
his sufferings, ascribing them to his own imperfection, and making
the utmost effort to perform his family duties as irreproachably as
possible. "I am all right, quite all right," he often said and wrote to
his friends. At times he even displayed a childlike gaiety, and
sometimes jested at the very circumstances which caused him the
most suffering.
This remarkable circumstance I explain solely by the fact that Leo
Nikolaevitch firmly made it his aim to do nothing but the will of God.
This, and only this, he set before him as his fundamental task, and
for the sake of carrying it out he consciously denied himself the
satisfaction of his personal needs and any self-gratification during
the whole of that second long period of his married life. And denying
himself all the so-called joys of life, he incidentally attained true
spiritual joy and peace, true blessedness.
The subject of Leo Nikolaevitch's inner life is, however, outside the
limits of our present investigation and I have referred to it only that
the reader might not receive a quite mistaken impression that Leo
Nikolaevitch was lacking in that courageous joy in life affecting all
around him, which, on the contrary, he possessed in the highest
degree.[31]
FOOTNOTE
[31] As I am touching upon the general mood of Leo
Nikolaevitch's spiritual life, I foresee that the extracts I have
made from his diaries and letters will in many readers arouse a
feeling of regret that they have hitherto not had the opportunity
of reading this precious material in its entirety. And therefore I
think it needful to state that the principal obstacles to the
continuation of the series of issues of Tolstoy's diaries, begun
several years ago, and to the systematic publication of all his
writings, are now happily overcome, and the first complete
edition of all Tolstoy's works is at the present time being zealously
prepared for the press.
APPENDIX II
The personality of Leo Nikolaevitch's wife, Sofya Andreyevna, is
connected in the closest way with the account I have given of his
leaving home. I have consequently been compelled to touch upon
her relations with her husband. While describing the agonising
sufferings to which Leo Nikolaevitch was subjected in his family
circle, I have to my regret been forced to state a great deal which
appears as an attack upon the character and behaviour of his wife.
And therefore, to prevent any misunderstandings on the part of
readers with regard to my personal relations with her, I wish to
speak out openly upon the subject.
It would perhaps have been natural for me, as a friend of Leo
Nikolaevitch's, to feel bitterness and hostility towards the person
who had been for him such a heavy cross during the last thirty years
of his life. And it would be natural for the reader to suppose that
under the influence of such feelings I could not be free from
prejudice in regard to Sofya Andreyevna, and could not help, even
against my will, laying the colour on thick in describing her
deficiencies. There will no doubt be ill-wishers who will say that,
moved by resentment, I find a satisfaction in laying bare in an
exaggerated form the mistakes and failings of a person who caused
me much suffering. But in spite of the naturalness of such
suppositions, they would in the present case be mistaken. In reality
my attitude to Leo Nikolaevitch's wife is quite different.
First of all, as in Leo Nikolaevitch's lifetime I never forgot, so after
the death of both of them I never can forget, that Sofya Andreyevna
was his wife, i.e. occupied quite an exceptional position in regard to
him, and for the first half of their life together was the person
nearest to him in the world. This circumstance alone has inspired,
and still inspires, a peculiar strictness toward myself in my behaviour
to her and circumspection in my judgments of her. Moreover, having
been a close witness of the wonderfully loving solicitude with which
Leo Nikolaevitch behaved to his wife, never losing hope of the
possibility of her spiritual awakening, I could not on my side help
being infected by this attitude, at least so far as not to feel ill-will or
prejudice against her.
Apart from that, I do not on principle acknowledge a man's right to
judge another. The character and behaviour of this or the other
person depends on so many external and internal circumstances for
which the person is not in the least responsible; and the most secret
region in our inner consciousness, in which we really are answerable
to our own conscience, is so entirely beyond the reach of any
outside eye that we have neither the power nor the right to judge
any but ourselves. In relation to anyone else we can judge only their
actions, laying completely aside, as not within our competence, the
question of the degree of their responsibility for committing them.
With this point of view every censure, irritation, or vexation with
anyone, to say nothing of wrath or revenge, appears merely as the
sign of our own imperfection, against which, when looked upon as
such, it is easier to struggle than when such feelings are regarded as
legitimate.
In view of these two circumstances, though I have, willy-nilly, in the
present work to exhibit Sofya Andreyevna in an unfavourable light, I
have not done so from personal ill-will to her, nor in a spirit of
censure, but simply through the necessity of giving a faithful picture
of what Leo Nikolaevitch had to endure.
I know that many will fail to understand my true motives and will
severely censure me. I resign myself to this in advance. But I
confess it grieves me, grieves me deeply, that by this present book I
shall be bound to cause pain to those members of Leo Nikolaevitch's
family who are still alive and who are nearest to him—his children.
An old friend of their father's, I have always been conscious of being
a friend of the family as well, and I naturally attach particular value
to good relations with them. If they feel bitter against me, I beg
them to believe that, whether mistakenly or not, I have, in any case,
sincerely felt myself morally bound to act in the way I have acted,
for reasons set forth in the Introduction. I beg them also to consider
that the present publication of the truth I knew about their father's
family life was, so to speak, forcibly wrung from me by all the
untruths on the subject which for many years were persistently
circulated all over the world, both in speaking and writing, by their
own mother and their two brothers, Ilya Lvovitch and Leo Lvovitch.
These two made it a kind of profession to give public lectures on the
subject. Quite recently I came across, in one of the most popular
foreign newspapers, the Paris Figaro, a series of articles by Leo
Lvovitch Tolstoy in which he strives to cover the memory of his
father with shame and ignominy, in contradistinction to that of his
mother, whose image he idealises till it becomes utterly distorted. He
is so careless with the facts that, under the influence of his notorious
envy and enmity for his father, he tells absolute untruths about him
and definitely slanders him, though perhaps without meaning to do
so. Such pernicious attacks upon Leo Nikolaevitch made in the
world's Press by some of his nearest relatives give me reason to
hope that his other relatives will not be surprised when they find, as
their father's champion upon the same arena, one of his most
intimate friends, who is able to speak more freely concerning the
relations between their parents than those who are naturally
constrained by the bonds of blood relationship.
It goes without saying that Sofya Andreyevna, like everyone else,
had her virtues and her defects, but at the same time it will be
readily understood that if Leo Nikolaevitch was reduced to the
necessity of leaving her, it was not her good qualities which drove
him to it. And therefore, in describing the causes of his departure, I
have inevitably been forced to dwell upon the negative sides of her
character.
In this brief narrative exclusively devoted to one definite event in the
life of Leo Nikolaevitch and the internal and external circumstances
connected with that event, I have not made it my aim to draw a
general and complete picture of the characters of Leo Nikolaevitch
and Sofya Andreyevna. The limited range of my special task laid
upon me the necessity of keeping strictly within the limits of those of
their characteristics and peculiarities which in one way or another
threw a direct light upon the incident described. There could be no
question of an all-round and to any extent exhaustive account of the
characters of those persons, apart from the fact that such a task is
far beyond my capacity. The most important and perhaps the most
difficult aspect of the task which actually lay before me consisted in
exhibiting in their full force the circumstances which in the end
compelled Leo Nikolaevitch to take his final step, with perfect
truthfulness, exaggerating nothing, of course, but at the same time
concealing nothing from false delicacy. This I have tried to do as
conscientiously, carefully and truthfully as I can. Though I might
from the natural perhaps, but in the present case misplaced,
sensibility have smoothed over the extremes of Sofya Andreyevna's
behaviour, and have softened the real character of her attitude to
Leo Nikolaevitch, yet in doing that I should have deprived the
motives of his departure of reasonable basis and inevitability, and
should have set forth Leo Nikolaevitch's impulses in a more or less
distorted form—and that, of course, was inadmissible.
Even in the lifetime of Sofya Andreyevna Tolstoy I did at one time
entertain the idea of publishing the truth about Leo Nikolaevitch's
leaving home in her interests. I cherished the hope that from such a
truthful account she might derive some conception of how much Leo
Nikolaevitch suffered at her hands, how he struggled with himself,
how self-sacrificingly he returned her good for evil, how persistently,
in spite of everything, he believed in the divine spark in her soul,
and how he rejoiced and was touched at the slightest gleam of that
spark. And who knows, I said to myself, perhaps such a presentation
before her eyes of what really happened, in contradistinction to the
fantastic inventions with which she screened the truth from herself—
perhaps this truthful picture of what Leo Nikolaevitch really did
endure, might help her in time to recognise the truth, to come to
herself, and to become one in soul with him who loved her so that
he laid down his soul for her?
But at the time I did not decide to do this, and now I do not regret
it. Apart from any external influences, there is no doubt that after
Leo Nikolaevitch's death there appeared at times a certain inner
softening in Sofya Andreyevna, though only of brief duration. So it
was, for instance, immediately after his death, when, in the
presence of several persons, she repeated in spiritual agonies that
she had been the cause of his death. And though a prolonged period
followed after it during which she displayed, at least in words, her
former indifference or even hostility to Leo Nikolaevitch, yet before
her own death, as those near her relate, she again expressed regret
for the wrong she had done him. And if outwardly she repented but
little, yet who can say what were her thoughts and reflections in her
soul, and especially what passed in her consciousness during those
dying hours and minutes when man, cut off from communication
with those around him, in complete solitude before his Maker, knows
that he is departing this life?
And though as she left this world Sofya Andreyevna carried with her
the answer to this question, nevertheless we have no grounds for
denying the possibility that the cherished hope which Leo
Nikolaevitch never lost, that sooner or later she would be one with
him in spirit, was realised at last before her death. Let us, too, look
with a spirit of love and compassion upon the errors, the defects and
the spiritual limitations of the companion of Leo Nikolaevitch's life.
But at the same time let us boldly look the truth in the face, in no
way softening the magnitude of the sufferings endured by Leo
Nikolaevitch by concealing the true attitude of his wife to him, or by
depicting her behaviour in a softened light. If we keep in mind the
great divine love with which he loved her soul, then in face of the
naked truth we shall not condemn, but shall sincerely
compassionate, her whose destiny it was to serve as the instrument
of his severest trials. And we shall understand that those trials which
in the end exhausted Leo Nikolaevitch's physical forces and brought
about his death were obviously needful to the manifestations in him
of the fullness of spiritual strength received from him by God.
Printed in Great Britain by
Richard Clay & Sons, Limited,
Bungay, Suffolk.
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    ©2016 Pearson Education,Inc. Chapter 7 The Macroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation „ Overview In this chapter, the key concepts in macroeconomics of business fluctuations, unemployment, inflation, and deflation are introduced. These concepts are discussed at length and their interrelationships are examined. It is important to stress that the definition, measurement, and interpretation of each of these concepts are somewhat arbitrary. Economists have agreed upon definitions of the terms that may differ from their popular meanings. One should be aware that these differences exist and be extremely careful when discussing these terms because each of these words may provoke an emotional response. „ Learning Objectives After studying this chapter, students should be able to: • 7.1 Explain how the U.S. government calculates the official unemployment rate • 7.2 Discuss the types of unemployment • 7.3 Describe how price indexes are calculated and define the key types of price indexes • 7.4 Evaluate who loses and who gains from inflation and distinguish between nominal and real interest rates • 7.5 Understand key features of business fluctuations „ Outline I. Unemployment: Unemployment is the number of adults (16 years or older) who are willing and able to work and who are actively looking for work but have not found a job. A. Historical Unemployment Rates: The proportion of the labor force that is unemployed. The labor force is the number of persons 16 years of age or older who have jobs plus the number who are looking and available for jobs. (See Figure 7-1.) B. Employment, Unemployment, and the Labor Force: All persons 16 years of age and over can be classified as not in the labor force (i.e., homemakers and those in school), employed, or unemployed. Then the employed are subtracted from the labor force to get the unemployed. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed divided by the labor force times 100. (See Figure 7-2.) C. The Arithmetic Determination of Unemployment: The number of unemployed is a stock while the number getting jobs and losing jobs is a flow concept. As long as the flows are equal, the unemployment rate is constant. (See Figure 7-3.) 1. Categories of Individuals Who Are Without Work: A person is considered unemployed in any of the following instances:
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    96 Miller •Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. a. A job loser: A person who was involuntarily terminated or laid off (40–60 percent of the unemployed) b. A reentrant: A person who has worked full-time before but who left the labor force (20–30 percent of the unemployed) c. A job leaver: A person who voluntarily ended employment (10–15 percent of the unemployed) d. A new entrant: A person who has never worked at a full-time job for more than two weeks (10–15 percent of the unemployed) 2. Duration of Unemployment: The duration of unemployment is inversely related to the overall level of economic activity. The average duration of unemployment over the past 25 years has been at least 16 weeks. 3. The Discouraged Worker Phenomenon: Individuals who have stopped looking for jobs because they do not believe that they can find a suitable one are called discouraged workers. 4. Labor Force Participation: The proportion of noninstitutionalized working age persons who are in the labor force. The statistic can be computed for any group. II. The Major Types of Unemployment A. Frictional Unemployment: Unemployment due to the fact that workers must search for appropriate job offers. This takes time, so they remain temporarily unemployed. B. Structural Unemployment: Unemployment resulting from a poor match of workers’ skills and abilities with current requirements of employers. It also includes persons who are unemployed because of labor-market policies by government that make it expensive to employ workers (e.g., social insurance programs) and to fire them or lay them off by closing plants. C. Cyclical Unemployment: Unemployment resulting from recession. D. Full Employment and the Natural Rate of Unemployment: Full employment does not mean that everyone has a job. The transactions costs in the labor market are not zero. 1. Full Employment: A level of unemployment that corresponds to frictional unemployment in the labor market. 2. The Natural Rate of Unemployment: The rate of unemployment that is estimated to prevail in long-run macroeconomic equilibrium, when all workers and employers have fully adjusted to any changes in the economy. It includes only frictional and structural unemployment and is currently estimated to be roughly 5 percent. III. Inflation and Deflation: The situation in which the average of all prices of goods and services in an economy is rising is called inflation. Deflation is a situation in which the average of all prices in an economy is falling. A. The Inflation and the Purchasing Power of Money: The value of a person’s money income in buying goods and services is its purchasing power or the real value of the money. The price of anything expressed in today’s dollars. The purchasing power of money varies inversely with the price level. B. Measuring the Rate of Inflation: Inflation is measured by a price index. C. Computing a Price Index: A fixed quantity price index is the cost of today’s market basket of goods expressed as a percentage of the cost of the same market basket in a base year. It is computed by dividing the cost of today’s market basket by the cost of that same market basket in the base year times 100. (See Table 7-1.) 1. Real-World Price Indexes a. The CPI: The CPI is a weighted average of a specified set of goods and services purchased by consumers in urban areas.
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    Chapter 7 TheMacroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 97 ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. b. The PPI: A statistical measure of a weighted average of prices of goods and services that firms produce and sell. c. The GDP Deflator: The GDP Deflator is a price index that measures the changes in prices of all new final goods and services produced in the economy. d. The PCE Index: A statistical measure of average prices using annually updated weights based on surveys of consumer spending. e. Historical Changes in the CPI (See Figure 7-4.) IV. Anticipated Versus Unanticipated Inflation: Unanticipated inflation is inflation that comes as a surprise. Anticipated inflation is the inflation rate that we believe will occur and can be either higher or lower than the actual rate. A. Inflation and Interest Rates: The nominal interest rate is the market rate of interest. The real rate of interest is the nominal rate minus the anticipated rate of inflation. Evidence shows that inflation rates and nominal interest rates move together. B. Does Inflation Necessarily Hurt Everyone? 1. Unanticipated Inflation: Creditors Lose and Debtors Gain: Creditors lose because the debtor is charged an interest rate that does not cover the actual inflation rate. If unanticipated inflation is greater than actual inflation, creditors gain, and debtors lose. 2. Protecting Against Inflation: Banks and other lenders raise interest rates to protect themselves from anticipated inflation. Workers seek cost-of-living adjustments, i.e., automatic increases in wage rates to offset inflation. 3. The Resource Cost of Inflation: Businesses and individuals use resources to protect themselves from inflation, e.g., re-pricing goods and services. The resources could have been used to produce additional goods and services. V. Changing Inflation and Unemployment: Business Fluctuations: These are the ups (expansions) and downs (contractions) in business activity throughout the economy. A recession is a contraction or downturn in the level of business activity. The dating of recessions is done by the National Bureau of Economic Research. (See Figure 7-5.) A. A Historical Picture of Business Activity in the United States: Historical changes in U.S. business activity are shown in Figure 7-6. B. Explaining Business Fluctuations: External Shocks: Although many downturns in economic activity have been caused by external shocks to the economy (e.g., war, changes in oil prices, and weather), many others have occurred without any external shock. A macroeconomic theory is needed to explain business cycles and is presented in later chapters. Leading indicators are events that have been found to exhibit changes before changes in business activity. „ Points to Emphasize Definitions in Economic Measurement It is helpful to point out that the words “recession,” “unemployment,” and “inflation” mean different things to different people. It is thus important to define them so that everyone understands what each word means. It is also important to be able to measure these phenomena. Economists define these concepts operationally. An operational definition is one that allows the measurement of a concept. Thus if each of us applies the same operational definition to these concepts, we should all arrive at the same quantitative measurement. Various scientists have similar problems. Psychologists use words like “stress,” “anxiety,” and “frustration.” Unless these words are defined operationally, psychologists will arrive at radically different interpretations of given events.
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    98 Miller •Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. Changes in the Economic Status: Recession and Expansion The text stresses that recessions and expansions are relative concepts. As such, deviations from the trend growth rate of real GDP can be thought of as recessions or expansions. When the growth rate is above the trend rate, there is said to be an expansion. It is possible, too, that real output can be increasing, yet a recession could exist if the output growth is less than the normal trend. This is only one definition of recession. Some define a recession as a situation in which real GDP remains constant for two consecutive quarters; others define a recession as a situation in which real GDP falls for two consecutive quarters; still others (including the “official” business cycle daters) use real GDP changes and other criteria as well. Because “recession” is such an emotional term, students can usually be drawn into a discussion of what recession really means. It is interesting that the outcomes of political elections are said to be significantly influenced by whether a recession or an expansion was “caused” by the current office holders. The Unemployment Rate “Unemployment” is as elusive a term as is “recession.” The unemployment rate is the ratio of the unemployed to the labor force. Yet each of these terms is difficult to measure. Students should be aware that the unemployment rate figures that they hear and read about are operationally, and therefore arbitrarily, defined. Homemakers are engaged in productive activity. Yet the current operational definition of the labor force does not include them. If it did, the official unemployment rate would be lower. How should the voluntarily unemployed be treated? Are they really in the labor force and are they really unemployed? The existence of these two groups implies that the unemployment rate is overstated. So does the fact that some people who do not want to work say that they do want to work in order to collect unemployment compensation and certain welfare benefits. Still other people work in the underground economy (in illegal or otherwise legal activities), collecting social welfare benefits and listed as unemployed. Some workers have been out of work for so long, or feel that their chances for employment are so poor, that they have given up looking for a job. These so-called “discouraged” workers are not officially defined as being in the labor force and therefore are not officially unemployed; some economists feel that the discouraged worker phenomenon understates unemployment rates. Frictional, Structural, and Full Employment Individuals usually think of full employment as being a situation in which there is no unemployment. Full employment is a rather vague, arbitrary concept. Because transactions costs in labor markets are positive, there will always be some frictional unemployment. Also, there will always be structural unemployment because of changing technology and shifts in demand. Thus the level of full employment is defined by the sum of frictional unemployment and structural unemployment. Even these, in practice, are slippery concepts. So, economists now generally use the natural rate of unemployment concept, which is the unemployment rate that is estimated to prevail in the long run, when all workers and employers have adjusted to a change in the economy. Conceptually, it would thus not include cyclical unemployment. Inflation Inflation evokes strong emotional reactions, yet an operational definition is simply a sustained increase in the price level as measured by a price index. A price index is a very imperfect measure of the price level. Most price indexes are fixed-weight indexes in which the weights are the quantities purchased in a base period. Changes in relative prices will result in changes in relative quantities demanded. Thus price indexes overstate inflation. Also, quality changes, especially in services, are difficult to measure and are essentially ignored. The issue of quality can be illustrated using medical services. Ask students whether they would prefer being treated for a life-threatening illness or injury with current medical technology and knowledge or those of 10 to 20 years ago. Students never choose the older medical practices. An
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    Chapter 7 TheMacroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 99 ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. important question is whether many of the medical services available today are even the same services that were available in the past. Real and Nominal Interest Rates The text examines the issue of real versus nominal interest rates under conditions of inflation. It is important for students to be able to distinguish these two interest rate concepts. The economy is affected by real interest rates. A nominal interest rate that is high by historical standards may nevertheless be associated with a low or even negative real interest rate. If the rate of inflation is 15 percent and the nominal interest rate is 12 percent, then the real interest rate is −3 percent. Thus the lender is experiencing a 3 percent negative return on his/her loan. The borrower is incurring a real cost of −3 percent. It is as if there was no inflation and the lender was paying the borrower 3 percent to borrow the money. „ For Those Who Wish to Stress Theory Labor Surpluses and Agricultural Surpluses For those who wish to emphasize theory, draw an analogy between labor surpluses (unemployment) and agricultural surpluses. In order for agricultural surpluses to exist, prices must be above equilibrium and not be allowed to fall. The resulting surpluses must be purchased and stored by individual farmers, speculators, or the government. The same situation may exist for prolonged periods of surplus labor. Wages tend not to fall because of unions or minimum-wage laws, and the surplus labor is “bought.” Because unemployed workers are not likely to accept jobs that have far lower wages than those to which they are accustomed, the unemployed, in effect, hire themselves to look for better jobs at higher wages than they are currently being offered. Also, the government “buys” the surplus labor by paying workers unemployment compensation, food stamps, and other social welfare benefits. Such benefits make it worthwhile for workers to spend more time searching for higher wage rates. Is Inflation a Purely Monetary Phenomenon? Stating that inflation is purely a monetary phenomenon can generate controversy. Inflation arises when the money supply is increased relative to the demand for money. This proposition can be illustrated as follows: 1. Suppose the going exchange rate is 1 gallon of oil = 1 quart of milk. Assume that a major oil discovery is made, other things held constant. There is an increase in the supply of oil relative to the demand for oil; the relative price of oil falls. Assume that the new exchange rate is 2 gallons of oil = 1 quart of milk. It now takes more units of oil to purchase the same quantity of milk. 2. If the money supply increases relative to the demand for money the relative price of money will fall; it will now take more units of money to buy the same quantities of goods and services. This is what is meant by inflation. 3. Inflation can be understood by using the tools of supply and demand. If the demand for money is solely or primarily determined by a desire to purchase goods and services, then the demand for money is directly related to the quantity of goods and services produced. An increase in output will lead to an increase in the demand for money; a decrease in output will lead to a decrease in the demand for money. If the supply of money continually increases relative to the demand for money (the supply of goods and services) inflation will occur.
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    100 Miller •Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. Does Inflation Hurt Everyone? During periods of inflation some gain and some lose. If inflation is underestimated by contracting parties, then workers who sign long-term contracts, moneylenders, and workers who do not have cost-of-living clauses in their wage contracts will lose. Workers signing short-term contracts, borrowers, and workers who do have cost-of-living contracts will gain or at least not be harmed. If some benefit from unanticipated inflation while others are hurt, it is impossible to conclude (using positive economics) that inflation is “bad” and that reducing inflation is “good.” Even those who claim that inflation abatement will reduce the risks associated with contracts cannot claim universal benefits. Cost-Push Inflation It is a common theory that unions cause inflation or that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) causes inflation. It is widely believed that if unions increase wages, businesses will merely pass these increases off as higher prices. This need not be true. In recent years, U.S. industries, facing global competition from imports, have found that they cannot raise prices by much, if at all. Assume that all unionized industries do pass on higher wages in higher prices. What will happen is that (to the extent that wage increases exceed increases in productivity) union workers will be laid off. This situation will lead to an increase in the supply of labor into nonunionized industries, ceteris paribus, and wages will fall there. This will lead to a decrease in the prices of nonunion goods. The net effect is hard to predict; the price level may or may not rise. If OPEC causes the price of crude oil to rise, which leads to an increase in price of its distillates sold in the United States, the U.S. price level will rise if such relative price changes shift the short-run aggregate supply curve upward. Both real national output and the price level will fall ceteris paribus, and the demand for oil will decrease, causing the price of oil to decrease. „ Further Questions for Class Discussion 1. Social Security cost-of-living adjustments are based on the increase in the CPI between the third quarter of the previous year and the third quarter of the current year. The percentage increase is then applied to Social Security benefits beginning in January of the next year. In 2010 and 2011, Social Security recipients did not receive cost-of-living adjustments to their monthly benefits because the consumer price index had not risen above the level at the end of the third quarter of 2008 and by the third quarter of either 2009 or 2010. Seniors were outraged that they had not received the annual cost-of-living increase to which they had become accustomed. Was their outrage justifiable? No. The cost of living based on the CPI was lower on the adjustment dates than it had been in 2008. They had, in effect, received an increase in purchasing power of their benefits between the third quarter of 2008 and the third quarter of 2010 because the cost of living as measured by the CPI was lower. 2. One interesting question to pose is as follows: Does a rise in the unemployment rate mean that there is a weakening of the economy? It is generally believed that a higher unemployment rate means that an increased number of workers have lost their jobs, and this would be due to worsening economic conditions. In fact, an increase in the unemployment rate can occur if there is an increase in the number of reentrants, job leavers, and/or new entrants above previous levels. If the economy continues to create jobs at the same rate, i.e., the growth rate stays the same, the unemployment rate increases. This phenomenon occurs regularly in May of each year, and the government seasonally adjusts the unemployment rate to take it into account.
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    Chapter 7 TheMacroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 101 ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. 3. During the recession of 2008–2009, many workers who lost their jobs were unable to afford to move to a new job in a new city and pay rent or buy another home because they could not sell the home they were in that still had mortgages. This was because of the crash of the housing market caused by the financial meltdown associated with subprime mortgage lending. What effect would you expect this to have on the natural unemployment rate? By reducing the mobility of labor, frictional unemployment would have increased during that period. Because the natural unemployment rate consists of frictional plus structural unemployment, the natural rate of unemployment would have increased, ceteris paribus. 4. In practice, could nominal interest rates ever be zero in the economy? Yes, if deflation was expected. In Japan, in the early 2000s, the nominal interest rate on some loans was zero. However, the Japanese economy was experiencing deflation. If a lender expected deflation to be −3 percent and wanted a real interest rate of 3 percent, then the nominal interest rate could be zero; that is, the nominal interest rate equals the real interest rate of 3 percent plus a negative inflation rate of 3 percent. In simpler terms, the lender was being repaid in dollars that had 3 percent more purchasing power than when the dollars were loaned out. 5. Could the real interest rate be negative in practice? How about the nominal interest rate? The real interest rate could be negative if inflation is much higher than expected. For example, if the expected rate of inflation was 5 percent and lenders wished to earn a real return of 3 percent, then the nominal interest rate would be 8 percent. Suppose that the actual inflation rate turned out to be 9 percent. The real interest rate that lenders actually earned would be equal to 8 percent nominal interest rate minus 9 percent actual rate of inflation, or −1 percent. The nominal interest rate by contrast would not fall below zero. A negative interest rate would mean that lenders are paying borrowers to take out a loan. A potential lender will be better off under any scenario by holding money rather than paying someone to borrow from her. „ Answers to Questions for Critical Analysis A Shift toward More Part-Time Employment (p. 152) Why do you suppose that the average weekly hours an average employed U.S. worker spends on the job have dropped slightly since 2007? A part-time job is a close substitute for a full-time job. When the unemployment rate increases and the prospect of holding full-time job positions is not so bright, people will be more likely to hold part-time positions at least temporarily. An Increase in the Duration of Unemployment (p. 153) Why do you suppose that someone who has been counted among the long-term unemployed usually has a harder time finding a job than a person who otherwise has similar past work experience but who has been out of work only a few weeks? (Hint: Employers tend to be wary of hiring people whose work skills may have declined after lengthy intervals spent without jobs.) Employers tend to be wary of hiring people whose work skills may have declined after lengthy intervals without a job. As such, employers are less likely to hire someone who has been unemployed for a long time than to hire someone with similar work experience but has been out of work only recently.
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    102 Miller •Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. The French Government Buys Lower Structural Unemployment (p. 155) How might the French government’s subsidy policy fail to reduce structural unemployment if funding subsidies for wages to young people requires raising taxes on employers? (Hint: Employers sometimes respond to tax increases by reducing the number of workers they hire.) Employers tend to respond to a tax increase by reducing the number of workers they hire. As such, there will be no incentive for the employers to hire more young people if the French government funds the subsidy policy for wages by raising taxes on those employers. Consuming More Food Boosts Some Nations’ CPI Inflation Rates (p. 159) Even if the base years for the CPIs were the same, why would it be a mistake to compare the value of the 2015 CPI for the United States with the 2015 CPI for India? Because the weights of individual expenditure categories in the CPI’s market basket are different between the United States and India, it would be a mistake to compare their values of a given year. Want to Be Led by an Indicator? There Are Apps for That! (p. 164) Why might someone be willing to pay for access to leading indicators offered by private firms instead of downloading a free Census Bureau app? Leading economic indicators provide helpful information about the future direction of the economy, which will in turn affect business activity. Some people might find those leading indicators offered by some private firms more valuable than those provided by the Census Bureau. „ You Are There A Small-Business Skills Mismatch and Structural Unemployment (p. 165) 1. Why might small businesses reduce hiring if wages for scarce skilled workers rise? (Hint: What does the demand curve for skilled workers look like?) The demand curve for skilled workers is downward sloping, meaning that businesses will hire fewer of them if their wages rise. 2. How might federal small-business regulations affect structural unemployment? Federal small-business regulations affect the costs of doing business or the costs of hiring employees. Businesses respond to higher hiring costs by hiring fewer workers. As such, structural unemployment would increase.
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    Chapter 7 TheMacroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 103 ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. „ Issues and Applications The U.S. Male Work Withdrawal (pp. 165–166) 1. Why does the overall level of employment often tend to increase as overall labor force participation rises? The labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed people. The number of employed typically exceeds the number of unemployed. Therefore, as more people join the labor force, the level of employment tends to increase. 2. If male unemployment were to decrease at the same time that male labor force participation declines, does the male unemployment rate necessarily drop? Explain briefly. (Hint: The male unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed males divided by the number of males in the labor force.) The male unemployment rate equals the number of unemployed males divided by the number of males in the labor force. The number of males in the labor force is the sum of unemployed males and employed males. If the number of unemployed males decreases at the same time as the male labor force participation rate drops, then the amount of reduction in the male labor force is smaller than the amount of reduction in the number of unemployed males. As such, the male unemployment rate decreases. „ Answers to Problems 7-1. Suppose that you are given the following information (See page 151.): Total population 300.0 million Adult, noninstitutionalized, nonmilitary population 200.0 million Unemployment 7.5 million a. If the labor force participation rate is 70 percent, what is the labor force? b. How many workers are employed? c. What is the unemployment rate? a. Multiplying the fraction of people who participate in the labor force, 0.7, times the adult, noninstitutionalized, nonmilitary population of 200.0 million yields a labor force of 140.0 million. b. Subtracting the 7.5 million unemployed from the labor force of 140.0 million yields 132.5 million people who are employed. c. Dividing the 7.5 million unemployed by the 140.0 million in the labor force and multiplying by 100 yields an unemployment rate of about 5.36 percent.
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    104 Miller •Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. 7-2. Suppose that you are given the following information (see page 151): Labor force 206.2 million Adults in the military 1.5 million Nonadult population 48.0 million Employed adults 196.2 million Institutionalized adults 3.5 million Nonmilitary, noninstitutionalized adults not in labor force 40.8 million a. What is the total population? b. How many people are unemployed, and what is the unemployment rate? c. What is the labor force participation rate? a. Summing the labor force of 206.2 million, the 1.5 million adults in the military, the 40.8 million adults not in the labor force, the 48.0 million nonadults, and the 3.5 million institutionalized adults yields a population of 300.0 million. b. The number of people unemployed is equal to the labor force of 206.2 million minus the 196.2 million employed adults, or 10.0 million. Dividing the 10.0 million unemployed by the 206.2 million in the labor force and multiplying by 100 yields an unemployment rate of about 4.85 percent. c. Adding the 206.2 million labor force and the 40.8 million adults not in the labor force but also not in the military and not institutionalized yields 247.0 million nonmilitary, noninstitutionalized adults. Hence, the labor force participation rate is equal to 206.2 million divided by 247.0 million times 100, or 83.5 percent. 7-3. Suppose that the U.S. nonmilitary, noninstitutionalized adult population is 224 million, the number employed is 156 million, and the number unemployed is 8 million. (See page 151.) a. What is the unemployment rate? b. Suppose there is a difference of 60 million between the adult population and the combined total of people who are employed and unemployed. How do we classify these 60 million people? Based on these figures, what is the U.S. labor force participation rate? a. The labor force equals the number employed plus the number unemployed, or 156 million + 8 million = 164 million. In percentage terms, therefore, the unemployment rate is 100 times 8 million/164 million, or 4.9 percent. b. These 60 million people are not in the labor force. The labor force participation rate is, in percentage terms, 100 times 164 million/224 million, or 73.2 percent. 7-4. During the course of a year, the labor force consists of the same 1,000 people. Employers have chosen not to hire 20 of these people in the face of government regulations making it too costly to employ them. Hence, they remain unemployed throughout the year. At the same time, every month during the year, 30 different people become unemployed, and 30 other different people who were unemployed find jobs. (See pages 150–155.) a. What is the frictional unemployment rate? b. What is the unemployment rate? c. Suppose that a system of unemployment compensation is established. Each month, 30 new people (not including the 20 that employers have chosen not to employ) continue to become unemployed, but each monthly group of newly unemployed now takes two months to find a job. After this change, what is the frictional unemployment rate?
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    Chapter 7 TheMacroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 105 ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. d. After the change discussed in part (c), what is the unemployment rate? a. Thirty people are always unemployed due to job changes each month, so the frictional unemployment rate is (30/1,000) × 100 = 3 percent. b. Twenty people are structurally unemployed, and 30 people are frictionally unemployed. Hence, 50 people are unemployed, and the total unemployment rate is (50/1000) × 100 = 5 percent. c. Now 60 people are always unemployed due to job changes each month, so 60 people are frictionally unemployed. The frictional unemployment rate is (60/1000) × 100 × 6 percent. d. Twenty people are structurally unemployed, and 60 people are frictionally unemployed. Hence, 80 people are unemployed, and the unemployment rate is (80/1000) × 100 = 8 percent. 7-5. Suppose that a nation has a labor force of 100 people. In January, Amy, Barbara, Carine, and Denise are unemployed. In February, those four find jobs, but Evan, Francesco, George, and Horatio become unemployed. Suppose further that every month, the previous four who were unemployed find jobs and four different people become unemployed. Throughout the year, however, three people—Ito, Jack, and Kelley—continually remain unemployed because firms facing government regulations view them as too costly to employ. (See page 154.) a. What is this nation’s frictional unemployment rate? b. What is its structural unemployment rate? c. What is its unemployment rate? a. Four of the 100 people are always continuously unemployed because they are between jobs, so the frictional unemployment rate is (4/100) × 100 = 4 percent. b. Three of the 100 people are always unemployed as a result of government regulations, so the structural unemployment rate is (3/100) × 100 = 3 percent. c. The unemployment rate is the sum of the frictional and structural rates of unemployment, or 7 percent. 7-6. In a country with a labor force of 200, a different group of 10 people becomes unemployed each month, but becomes employed once again a month later. No others outside these groups are unemployed. (See pages 150–155.) a. What is this country’s unemployment rate? b. What is the average duration of unemployment? c. Suppose that establishment of a system of unemployment compensation increases to two months the interval that it takes each group of job losers to become employed each month. Nevertheless, a different group of 10 people still becomes unemployed each month. Now what is the average duration of unemployment? d. Following the change discussed in part (c), what is the country’s unemployment rate? a. Ten new people become unemployed each month, so the unemployment rate is (10/200) × 100 = 5 percent. b. one month c. two months d. Now, a total of 20 people are unemployed each month, so the unemployment rate is (20/200) × 100 = 10 percent.
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    106 Miller •Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. 7-7. A nation’s frictional unemployment rate is 1 percent. Its cyclical rate of unemployment is 3 percent, and its structural unemployment rate is 4 percent. What is this nation’s overall rate of unemployment? (See pages 150–155.) The overall unemployment rate is 8 percent, and the natural rate of unemployment is 5 percent. 7-8. In 2014, the cost of a market basket of goods was $2,000. In 2016, the cost of the same market basket of goods was $2,100. Use the price index formula to calculate the price index for 2016 if 2014 is the base year. (See pages 157–158.) The price index for 2016 if 2012 is the base year is ($2,100/$2,000 × 100) =105.0. 7-9. Suppose that in 2015, a typical U.S. student attending a state-supported college bought 10 textbooks at a price of $100 per book and enrolled in 25 credit hours of coursework at a price of $360 per credit hour. In 2016, the typical student continued to purchase 10 textbooks and enroll in 25 credit hours, but the price of a textbook rose to $110 per book, and the tuition price increased to $400 per credit hour. The base year for computing a “student price index” using this information is 2015. What is the value of the student price index in 2015? In 2016? Show your work. (See pages 157–158.) In 2015, the value of the price index is $10,000/$10,000 ×100 = 100. In 2016, the value of the price index is $11,100/$10,000×100 = 111. 7-10. Between 2015 and 2016 in a particular nation, the value of the consumer price index—for which the base year is 2012—rose by 9.091 percent, to a value of 120 in 2016. What was the value of the price index in 2015? (See pages 157–158.) 120/1.091 = 110. 7-11. Consider the following price indexes: 90 in 2015, 100 in 2016, 110 in 2017, 121 in 2018, and 150 in 2019. Answer the following questions. (See pages 157–158.) a. Which year is likely the base year? b. What is the inflation rate from 2016 to 2017? c. What is the inflation rate from 2017 to 2018? d. If the cost of a market basket in 2016 is $2,000, what is the cost of the same basket of goods and services in 2015? In 2019? a. 2016 b. 10 percent c. 10 percent d. $1,800 in 2015; $3,000 in 2019 7-12. The real interest rate is 4 percent, and the nominal interest rate is 6 percent. What is the anticipated rate of inflation? (See page 161.) The anticipated inflation rate is the difference between the 6 percent nominal interest rate and the 4 percent real interest rate, or 2 percent
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    Chapter 7 TheMacroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 107 ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. 7-13. Currently, the price index used to calculate the inflation rate is equal to 90. The general expectation throughout the economy is that next year its value will be 99. The current nominal interest rate is 12 percent. What is the real interest rate? (See page 161.) The expected rate of inflation is equal to 100 × [(99 – 90)/90] = 10 percent. Hence the real interest rate equals the difference between the 12 percent nominal interest rate and the 10 percent anticipated inflation rate, or 2 percent 7-14. At present, the nominal interest rate is 7 percent, and the expected inflation rate is 5 percent. The current year is the base year for the price index used to calculate inflation. (See page 161.) a. What is the real interest rate? b. What is the anticipated value of the price index next year? a. The real interest rate is the difference between the 7 percent nominal interest rate and the 5 percent expected inflation rate, or 2 percent. b. 105.0 7-15. Suppose that in 2019 there is a sudden, unanticipated burst of inflation. Consider the situations faced by the following individuals. Who gains and who loses? (See pages 161–162.) a. A homeowner whose wages will keep pace with inflation in 2019 but whose monthly mortgage payments to a savings bank will remain fixed b. An apartment landlord who has guaranteed to his tenants that their monthly rent payments during 2019 will be the same as they were during 2018 c. A banker who made an auto loan that the auto buyer will repay at a fixed rate of interest during 2019 d. A retired individual who earns a pension with fixed monthly payments from her past employer during 2019 a. The homeowner gains; the savings bank loses. b. The tenants gain; the landlord loses. c. The auto buyer gains; the bank loses. d. The employer gains; the pensioner loses.
  • 18.
    108 Miller •Economics Today, Eighteenth Edition ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. 7-16. Consider the diagram below. The line represents the economy’s growth trend, and the curve represents the economy’s actual course of business fluctuations. For each part below, provide the letter label from the portion of the curve that corresponds to the associated term. (See page 162.) a. Contraction b. Peak c. Trough d. Expansion a. V b. U c. X d. S „ Selected References Alchian, Arman A., “Information Costs, Pricing, and Resource Unemployment,” Western Economic Journal, Vol. 7, June 1969, pp. 109–128. Alchian, Arman A. and Reuben A. Kessel, “Redistribution of Wealth through Inflation,” Science, Vol. 130, No. 3375, September 4, 1959, pp. 535–539. Brimmer, Andrew F., “Inflation and Income Distribution in the United States,” Review of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 53, No. 1, February 1971, pp. 37–48. Bronfenbrenner, Martin and Franklyn D. Holzman, “Survey of Inflation,” The American Economic Review, Vol. 53, 1963. Brozen, Yale, Automation—The Impact of Technological Change, Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1963. Cagan, Philip et al., A New Look at Inflation: Economic Policy in the Early 1970s, Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1973.
  • 19.
    Chapter 7 TheMacroeconomy: Unemployment, Inflation, and Deflation 109 ©2016 Pearson Education, Inc. Campbell, Colin D., ed., Wage-Price Controls in World War II: United States and Germany, Washington, D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, 1971. Economic Indicators, January 1993, Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office. Feldstein, Martin, “The Economics of the New Unemployment,” The Public Interest, Fall 1973. Kessel, Reuben A. and Arman A. Alchian, “Effects of Inflation,” Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 70, December 1962, pp. 521–537. Miller, Roger L. and Robert W. Pulsinelli, Macroeconomics, New York: Harper and Row, 1986. Phelps, Edmund S. et al., Microeconomic Foundations of Employment and Inflation Theory, New York: W.W. Norton, 1970. Schuettinger, Robert and Eamonn Butler, Forty Centuries of Wage and Price Controls, Washington, DC: The Heritage Foundation, 1979. Solow, Robert M., “The Intelligent Citizen’s Guide to Inflation,” The Public Interest, Vol. 38, Winter 1974, pp. 30–66.
  • 20.
    Another Random ScribdDocument with Unrelated Content
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    August 30, 1910;Kotchety. (From the letters.)—Sofya Andreyevna went away from here yesterday, and took a very touching farewell of me and Tanya and her husband, with evident sincerity begging forgiveness of all with tears in her eyes. She is inexpressibly pathetic. What will happen later I cannot imagine. "Do what you ought before your conscience and God, and what will be will be," I say to myself and try to act on it. September 9, 1910; Kotchety. (From the letters.)—She was very much irritated, not irritated (ce n'est pas le mot, that is not the right word), but morbidly agitated. I underline that word. She is unhappy and cannot control herself. I have only just been talking to her. She came thinking I should go away with her, but I have refused without fixing the date of my going away, and that greatly distressed her. What I shall do later I don't know. I shall try to bear my cross day by day. September 16, 1910 (from the letters).—I am still as before in a middling condition physically, and spiritually I try to look upon my painful or rather difficult relations with Sofya Andreyevna as a trial which is good for me, and which it depends upon myself to turn into a blessing, but I rarely succeed in this. One thing I can say: not in my brain but with my sides, as the peasants say, I have come to a clear understanding of the difference between resistance which is returning evil for evil, and the resistance of not giving way in those of one's actions which one recognises as one's duty to one's conscience and to God. I will try. September 18, 1910 (from the letters).—I understand now from experience that all that we call suffering is for our good. October 6, 1910 (from the letters).—She is ill and all the rest of it, but it is impossible not to pity her and not to be indulgent to her. October 17, 1910 (from the letters).—Yesterday was a very serious day. Others will describe the physical details to you, but I want to
  • 22.
    give you myown account from the inside. I pity and pity her, and rejoice that at times I love her without effort. It was so last night when she came in penitent and began seeing about warming my room, and in spite of her exhaustion and weakness pushed the shutters and screened the windows, taking pains and trouble about my ... bodily comfort. What's to be done if there are people for whom, and I believe only for a time, the reality of spiritual life is unattainable. Yesterday evening I was almost on the point of going away to Kotchety, but now I am glad I did not go. To-day I feel physically weak, but serene in spirit. October 26, 1910 (from a diary).—It is very oppressive for me in this house of lunatics. October 26, 1910 (from the letters).—The third thing is not so much a thought as a feeling, and a bad feeling—the desire to change my position. I feel something unbefitting, rather shameful, in my position. Sometimes I look upon it as I ought, as a blessing but sometimes I struggle against it and am revolted.... October 27, 1910 (from a diary).—It seems bad but is really good; the oppressiveness of our relations keeps increasing. October 29, 1910 (from the letters).—I am waiting to see what will come of the family deliberation—I think, good. In any case, however, my return to my former life has become still more difficult—almost impossible, owing to the reproaches which will now be showered upon me, and the still smaller share of kindness which will be shown me. I cannot and will not enter into any sort of negotiations—what will be will be—only to sin as little as possible.... I cannot boast of my physical and spiritual condition, they are both weak and shattered. I feel most of all sorry for her. If only that pity were quite free from an admixture of rancune (resentment), and that I cannot boast of.
  • 23.
    October 29, 1910;Optin Monastery. (From a diary.)—I have been much depressed all day and physically weak.... As I came here I was thinking all the time on the road, of the way out of my and her position, and could not think of any way out of it, but yet there will be one whether one likes it or not; it will come, and not be what one foresees. Yes, think only of how to avoid sin, and let come what will come. That is not my affair. I have taken up ... the Circle of Reading, and, just now, reading Number Twenty-eight was struck by the direct answer to my position: trial is what I need, it is beneficial for me. I am going to bed at once. Help me, O Lord. November 3, 1910; Station Astapovo. (From a diary; the last words written by Leo Nikolaevitch in his diary.)—Fais ce que doit adv....[30] And it is all for the best both for others and for me. The extracts from the diary and letters of Tolstoy that have been quoted, though far from exhausting all the material, show sufficiently clearly what Leo Nikolaevitch had to endure in connection with his family and domestic conditions in the course of the last thirty years of his life. In it of course all aspects of his spiritual growth are not touched upon, the whole course of his inner development during that period is not explained. But what is revealed to us in these extracts is sufficient to excite the warmest sympathy for Leo Nikolaevitch in his great and prolonged ordeal, and to inspire the deepest respect for his touching ability to blame himself for everything, and always to strive not towards what he desired but towards his duty. At the same time there is here revealed to us in its general features the path by which he came to the conviction that if we suffer spiritually we are ourselves to blame. As is the case with everyone for whom the true meaning of life is revealed, after Leo Nikolaevitch's inner awakening at the beginning of the 'eighties, his spiritual consciousness could not, of course, remain at the same point. And indeed from the fragments we have quoted we see that up to the very last days of his life it was growing
  • 24.
    and becoming moreperfect, as he became more and more penetrated with purity and strength. Becoming convinced that in spite of all his sufferings he could not draw his wife to take part in his efforts, Leo Nikolaevitch began to experience the most agonising distress, which, as we see from his diary of 1884, sometimes became so acute that he hardly had the strength to endure it. He even had moments almost of despair and as it were revolt against his fate, especially when he learned from experience that his wife was too far away from him spiritually to be his companion in the reorganisation of their lives. It was at such a moment that there broke from him that agonising cry of a tortured heart, that she would for ever remain a millstone round his neck and his children's. But at the same time he tried to accept these sufferings with meekness and submission as a trial laid upon him, and to behave with love and patience to her who evoked them. So about the same time, on one of those exceptionally rare occasions when in conversation with me he permitted himself to touch on his relations with his wife, he spoke approximately as follows: "It is impossible to blame Sofya Andreyevna. It is not her fault that she does not follow me. Why, what she clings to so obstinately now is the very thing in which I trained her for many years. Apart from that, in the early days of my awakening I was too irritable and insisted on trying to convince her that I was right. In those days I put my new conception of life before her in a form so repellent and unacceptable to her that I quite put her off. And now I feel that through my own fault she can never come to the truth by my way. That door is closed for her. But, on the other hand, I notice with joy that by ways peculiar to her alone, and quite incomprehensible to me, she seems at times to be gradually moving in the same direction." About the same time Leo Nikolaevitch wrote to me:
  • 25.
    "'He who lovesnot his brother, he dwelleth in death.' I have learned, but to my cost. I did not love, I had malice against my neighbours, and I was dying and dead. I began to be afraid of death; not afraid exactly, but bewildered before it. But love had but to rise up and I rose up again. I had forgotten Christ's first precept, 'Be not wrathful.' So simple, so small and so immense! If there is one man whom one does not love one is lost, one is dead. I have learned that by experience."—(Letter, December 28, 1885.) At that period of his life Leo Nikolaevitch wrote in his diary the reflection which has already appeared in print concerning the chloroform of love, which expresses with remarkable vividness his recognition of the way we ought to help men who have gone astray: "At first I thought, Can one point out to people their mistakes, their sins, their faults, without hurting them? We have chloroform and cocaine for physical pain, but not for the soul. I thought this, and at once it came into my head, it is untrue—there is such a spiritual chloroform. They perform the operation of amputating a leg or an arm with chloroform, but they perform the operation of reforming a man painfully, stifling the reform with pain, exciting the worse disease—vindictiveness. But there is a spiritual chloroform, and it has long been known,—always the same—love. And that is not all: in physical disease one may do good by an operation without chloroform, but the soul is such a sensitive creature that an operation performed upon it without the chloroform of love is never anything but injurious. Patients always know it and ask for chloroform, and know that it ought to be used.... The sick man is in pain and he screams, hides the sore spot and says, 'You won't heal me, you won't heal me, and I don't want to be healed, I would rather get worse if you cannot heal me without pain....' And he is right ... you cannot drag a man straight out when he is tangled in a net—you will hurt him. You must disentangle the netting gently and firmly first. This delay, this disentangling, is the chloroform of love.... This I almost understood before, now I quite understand and begin to feel it...."
  • 26.
    (Tolstoy's diary, January25, 1889. Cf. Biography of L. N. Tolstoy by P. I. Biryukov, Vol. III. chap. iii.) Striving to work out in himself a patient and loving attitude to the erring, beginning with those who were nearest to him, Leo Nikolaevitch from the earliest days of his domestic ordeal applied all his spiritual forces to avoiding giving way to his spiritual sufferings and throwing the blame for them either on people or on external circumstances. And this consciousness was continually strengthened and confirmed in him, helping him to bestow less and less pity on himself and more and more pity on those at whose hands he suffered. At first, as we have seen, such resignation to destiny was attained only with the greatest spiritual effort; but gradually he succeeded in conquering himself more and more by means of this incessant struggle carried on for many years. Such, anyway, is, it seems to me, the general deduction which may be drawn from his diary and letters. This deduction is confirmed too by the immediate impression which many of those to whose lot it fell to be in close relations with Leo Nikolaevitch in his later years carried away from personal intercourse with him. Even the expression of his face during this last period often seemed lighted up with a peculiar spiritual radiance. Such in its most general features is my conception of the consistent growth of Leo Nikolaevitch's inner consciousness after his spiritual awakening in so far as that growth is connected with his domestic sufferings and going away from home. This conception has been formed, on the one hand, on the basis of my personal intimacy and my spiritual unity with Leo Nikolaevitch as well as my long, intimate acquaintance with his family; and, on the other hand, on an attentive study of all that Leo Nikolaevitch has at various times expressed in his letters. But the secret of another man's soul is too great and too intricate for anyone to be able to assert with confidence that he has fully grasped it even on any one side. And therefore while expressing here my personal opinion so far as it can have significance for anyone, I feel great satisfaction in the fact that I have been able to a considerable
  • 27.
    extent to incorporateLeo Nikolaevitch's own words in this book. And thus it will be possible for the reader to draw his own conclusions; at least from those notes of Leo Nikolaevitch's which I have here brought into connection with my argument, and to correct for himself anything in which it may seem to him that I am mistaken. I should like to conclude with two more thoughts of Leo Nikolaevitch's which show his comprehension of the spiritual significance of suffering. "For a man living a spiritual life suffering is always an encouragement to becoming more perfect and more enlightened, and getting nearer to God. For such people suffering can always be transformed into the business of life."—(Circle of Reading.) "The cross that is laid upon us is that at which we ought to work. Our whole life is this work. If the cross is illness, then bear it well, with submission; if it is injury at the hands of men, know how to return good for evil; if it is humiliation, be meek; if it is death, accept it with gratitude."—(The Way of Life.)
  • 28.
    FOOTNOTES [26] To whatprecisely Leo Nikolaevitch ascribed his realisation that in 1870 the "cord had snapped" in the relations between him and his wife I am not in a position to state with certainty. I can only say for the information of the reader that I heard from Leo Nikolaevitch that their relations began to change for the worse from the time when Sofya Andreyevna, contrary to his principles and desire, refused to nurse her second daughter Marya Lvovna, born 1870, and engaged a wet nurse for her who was taken away from her own baby. [27] It may interest the reader to know that on June 18 Sofya Andreyevna gave birth to her youngest daughter, Alexandra.— Translator's note. [28] At that period Leo Nikolaevitch's attitude of disapproval of property was beginning to take definite shape. In consequence he did not wish to make use of the revenues from his estate in Samara, considering it unjust to make the peasants work for him and his family. Even the income which his family received from the Yasnaya Polyana estate and from the sale by Sofya Andreyevna of his works he considered as unjust, though he did not yet see clearly how he ought to act in the matter, considering his duties to his family. [29] Compare entry for June 7. [30] An unfinished French proverb; translated in full it means, "Do what you ought and let come what may." APPENDIX I In view of the fact that Leo Nikolaevitch's diaries and letters have not yet been published in their entirety, I think it essential to make a
  • 29.
    note in connectionwith the character of the extracts which I have made from them in this book. These passages have been selected with the special object of illustrating Leo Nikolaevitch's attitude to suffering in general and to his own sufferings in particular. Owing to this, their context is inevitably one-sided and cannot give a general idea of his prevailing spiritual mood during the last thirty years of his life. That general mood, in spite of the conditions which oppressed Leo Nikolaevitch externally, was doubtless one of joy in life, in accordance with the characteristics of his nature, and filled with inner satisfaction, as all those who were in close communication with him for any length of time during that period can testify. And in this fact, i.e. in his preserving those characteristics in spite of all the trials to which he was subjected throughout that whole period, I see one of the most remarkable aspects of his heroic endurance. Indeed one has but for one moment to enter in spirit into his position at that time to be truly amazed at what he succeeded in attaining in his inner life. Love for freedom in general and for personal independence was to an exceptional degree characteristic of his powerful personality. The demands of creative work attracted him to prolonged absences far from home in the midst of the most varied natural scenery, and the most different strata of humanity. The working of his mind after his spiritual awakening required the closest association with working people. For the satisfaction of his spiritual needs he required the possibility of receiving unhindered in his house all and each of those with whom he would have liked to hold intercourse, without any limitation or restriction, and consequently to show hospitality, to seat at his table on occasions, to put up for the night both the peasant of the district who had come to pay him a visit, and the passing pilgrim weary from the road, and the visitor who had come from afar seeking spiritual intercourse and help.... And of all this so needful to Tolstoy as artist and thinker, and above all as a man leading a spiritual life,—of all this he was deprived, thanks to the egoism of his family and the class prejudices ruling in his house, in which a woman's self-will was paramount. Being completely indifferent to his spiritual needs and
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    callous to hissufferings, Sofya Andreyevna expected him in his old age, as in the first period of their life, to be continually at her side in spite of the spiritual change that had taken place in her husband, and only rarely agreed to his being absent for short intervals, and then with the greatest difficulty. Leo Nikolaevitch could not refuse these demands of hers without destroying the very small share of domestic peace without which his life in the home would have lost any sort of meaning. And in spite of all the oppressiveness of these domestic conditions, which defy description in words and, lasting as they did over thirty years, for us ordinary people would have been truly shattering, Leo Nikolaevitch, far from giving way to despair, did not even complain of his fate. On the contrary, he blamed himself for his sufferings, ascribing them to his own imperfection, and making the utmost effort to perform his family duties as irreproachably as possible. "I am all right, quite all right," he often said and wrote to his friends. At times he even displayed a childlike gaiety, and sometimes jested at the very circumstances which caused him the most suffering. This remarkable circumstance I explain solely by the fact that Leo Nikolaevitch firmly made it his aim to do nothing but the will of God. This, and only this, he set before him as his fundamental task, and for the sake of carrying it out he consciously denied himself the satisfaction of his personal needs and any self-gratification during the whole of that second long period of his married life. And denying himself all the so-called joys of life, he incidentally attained true spiritual joy and peace, true blessedness. The subject of Leo Nikolaevitch's inner life is, however, outside the limits of our present investigation and I have referred to it only that the reader might not receive a quite mistaken impression that Leo Nikolaevitch was lacking in that courageous joy in life affecting all around him, which, on the contrary, he possessed in the highest degree.[31]
  • 31.
    FOOTNOTE [31] As Iam touching upon the general mood of Leo Nikolaevitch's spiritual life, I foresee that the extracts I have made from his diaries and letters will in many readers arouse a feeling of regret that they have hitherto not had the opportunity of reading this precious material in its entirety. And therefore I think it needful to state that the principal obstacles to the continuation of the series of issues of Tolstoy's diaries, begun several years ago, and to the systematic publication of all his writings, are now happily overcome, and the first complete edition of all Tolstoy's works is at the present time being zealously prepared for the press. APPENDIX II The personality of Leo Nikolaevitch's wife, Sofya Andreyevna, is connected in the closest way with the account I have given of his leaving home. I have consequently been compelled to touch upon her relations with her husband. While describing the agonising sufferings to which Leo Nikolaevitch was subjected in his family circle, I have to my regret been forced to state a great deal which appears as an attack upon the character and behaviour of his wife. And therefore, to prevent any misunderstandings on the part of readers with regard to my personal relations with her, I wish to speak out openly upon the subject. It would perhaps have been natural for me, as a friend of Leo Nikolaevitch's, to feel bitterness and hostility towards the person who had been for him such a heavy cross during the last thirty years of his life. And it would be natural for the reader to suppose that under the influence of such feelings I could not be free from prejudice in regard to Sofya Andreyevna, and could not help, even
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    against my will,laying the colour on thick in describing her deficiencies. There will no doubt be ill-wishers who will say that, moved by resentment, I find a satisfaction in laying bare in an exaggerated form the mistakes and failings of a person who caused me much suffering. But in spite of the naturalness of such suppositions, they would in the present case be mistaken. In reality my attitude to Leo Nikolaevitch's wife is quite different. First of all, as in Leo Nikolaevitch's lifetime I never forgot, so after the death of both of them I never can forget, that Sofya Andreyevna was his wife, i.e. occupied quite an exceptional position in regard to him, and for the first half of their life together was the person nearest to him in the world. This circumstance alone has inspired, and still inspires, a peculiar strictness toward myself in my behaviour to her and circumspection in my judgments of her. Moreover, having been a close witness of the wonderfully loving solicitude with which Leo Nikolaevitch behaved to his wife, never losing hope of the possibility of her spiritual awakening, I could not on my side help being infected by this attitude, at least so far as not to feel ill-will or prejudice against her. Apart from that, I do not on principle acknowledge a man's right to judge another. The character and behaviour of this or the other person depends on so many external and internal circumstances for which the person is not in the least responsible; and the most secret region in our inner consciousness, in which we really are answerable to our own conscience, is so entirely beyond the reach of any outside eye that we have neither the power nor the right to judge any but ourselves. In relation to anyone else we can judge only their actions, laying completely aside, as not within our competence, the question of the degree of their responsibility for committing them. With this point of view every censure, irritation, or vexation with anyone, to say nothing of wrath or revenge, appears merely as the sign of our own imperfection, against which, when looked upon as such, it is easier to struggle than when such feelings are regarded as legitimate.
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    In view ofthese two circumstances, though I have, willy-nilly, in the present work to exhibit Sofya Andreyevna in an unfavourable light, I have not done so from personal ill-will to her, nor in a spirit of censure, but simply through the necessity of giving a faithful picture of what Leo Nikolaevitch had to endure. I know that many will fail to understand my true motives and will severely censure me. I resign myself to this in advance. But I confess it grieves me, grieves me deeply, that by this present book I shall be bound to cause pain to those members of Leo Nikolaevitch's family who are still alive and who are nearest to him—his children. An old friend of their father's, I have always been conscious of being a friend of the family as well, and I naturally attach particular value to good relations with them. If they feel bitter against me, I beg them to believe that, whether mistakenly or not, I have, in any case, sincerely felt myself morally bound to act in the way I have acted, for reasons set forth in the Introduction. I beg them also to consider that the present publication of the truth I knew about their father's family life was, so to speak, forcibly wrung from me by all the untruths on the subject which for many years were persistently circulated all over the world, both in speaking and writing, by their own mother and their two brothers, Ilya Lvovitch and Leo Lvovitch. These two made it a kind of profession to give public lectures on the subject. Quite recently I came across, in one of the most popular foreign newspapers, the Paris Figaro, a series of articles by Leo Lvovitch Tolstoy in which he strives to cover the memory of his father with shame and ignominy, in contradistinction to that of his mother, whose image he idealises till it becomes utterly distorted. He is so careless with the facts that, under the influence of his notorious envy and enmity for his father, he tells absolute untruths about him and definitely slanders him, though perhaps without meaning to do so. Such pernicious attacks upon Leo Nikolaevitch made in the world's Press by some of his nearest relatives give me reason to hope that his other relatives will not be surprised when they find, as their father's champion upon the same arena, one of his most intimate friends, who is able to speak more freely concerning the
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    relations between theirparents than those who are naturally constrained by the bonds of blood relationship. It goes without saying that Sofya Andreyevna, like everyone else, had her virtues and her defects, but at the same time it will be readily understood that if Leo Nikolaevitch was reduced to the necessity of leaving her, it was not her good qualities which drove him to it. And therefore, in describing the causes of his departure, I have inevitably been forced to dwell upon the negative sides of her character. In this brief narrative exclusively devoted to one definite event in the life of Leo Nikolaevitch and the internal and external circumstances connected with that event, I have not made it my aim to draw a general and complete picture of the characters of Leo Nikolaevitch and Sofya Andreyevna. The limited range of my special task laid upon me the necessity of keeping strictly within the limits of those of their characteristics and peculiarities which in one way or another threw a direct light upon the incident described. There could be no question of an all-round and to any extent exhaustive account of the characters of those persons, apart from the fact that such a task is far beyond my capacity. The most important and perhaps the most difficult aspect of the task which actually lay before me consisted in exhibiting in their full force the circumstances which in the end compelled Leo Nikolaevitch to take his final step, with perfect truthfulness, exaggerating nothing, of course, but at the same time concealing nothing from false delicacy. This I have tried to do as conscientiously, carefully and truthfully as I can. Though I might from the natural perhaps, but in the present case misplaced, sensibility have smoothed over the extremes of Sofya Andreyevna's behaviour, and have softened the real character of her attitude to Leo Nikolaevitch, yet in doing that I should have deprived the motives of his departure of reasonable basis and inevitability, and should have set forth Leo Nikolaevitch's impulses in a more or less distorted form—and that, of course, was inadmissible.
  • 35.
    Even in thelifetime of Sofya Andreyevna Tolstoy I did at one time entertain the idea of publishing the truth about Leo Nikolaevitch's leaving home in her interests. I cherished the hope that from such a truthful account she might derive some conception of how much Leo Nikolaevitch suffered at her hands, how he struggled with himself, how self-sacrificingly he returned her good for evil, how persistently, in spite of everything, he believed in the divine spark in her soul, and how he rejoiced and was touched at the slightest gleam of that spark. And who knows, I said to myself, perhaps such a presentation before her eyes of what really happened, in contradistinction to the fantastic inventions with which she screened the truth from herself— perhaps this truthful picture of what Leo Nikolaevitch really did endure, might help her in time to recognise the truth, to come to herself, and to become one in soul with him who loved her so that he laid down his soul for her? But at the time I did not decide to do this, and now I do not regret it. Apart from any external influences, there is no doubt that after Leo Nikolaevitch's death there appeared at times a certain inner softening in Sofya Andreyevna, though only of brief duration. So it was, for instance, immediately after his death, when, in the presence of several persons, she repeated in spiritual agonies that she had been the cause of his death. And though a prolonged period followed after it during which she displayed, at least in words, her former indifference or even hostility to Leo Nikolaevitch, yet before her own death, as those near her relate, she again expressed regret for the wrong she had done him. And if outwardly she repented but little, yet who can say what were her thoughts and reflections in her soul, and especially what passed in her consciousness during those dying hours and minutes when man, cut off from communication with those around him, in complete solitude before his Maker, knows that he is departing this life? And though as she left this world Sofya Andreyevna carried with her the answer to this question, nevertheless we have no grounds for denying the possibility that the cherished hope which Leo
  • 36.
    Nikolaevitch never lost,that sooner or later she would be one with him in spirit, was realised at last before her death. Let us, too, look with a spirit of love and compassion upon the errors, the defects and the spiritual limitations of the companion of Leo Nikolaevitch's life. But at the same time let us boldly look the truth in the face, in no way softening the magnitude of the sufferings endured by Leo Nikolaevitch by concealing the true attitude of his wife to him, or by depicting her behaviour in a softened light. If we keep in mind the great divine love with which he loved her soul, then in face of the naked truth we shall not condemn, but shall sincerely compassionate, her whose destiny it was to serve as the instrument of his severest trials. And we shall understand that those trials which in the end exhausted Leo Nikolaevitch's physical forces and brought about his death were obviously needful to the manifestations in him of the fullness of spiritual strength received from him by God. Printed in Great Britain by Richard Clay & Sons, Limited, Bungay, Suffolk.
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