The document provides an economic update from Sri Lanka and around the world in September 2022. In Sri Lanka, ComBank was ranked the top bank, inflation was forecast to be 44.8%, and over 39% of the population was consuming an inadequate diet. Globally, IMF bailouts hit a record high as many countries faced economic crises. Central banks around the world aggressively raised interest rates, risking a global recession, to tackle high inflation. The UK market faced turmoil after the new government's tax cut plans.

1. Economic Capsule
September 2022
Research & Development Unit
308thIssue

2. CONTENTS
BANKING & FINANCE
 ComBank once again the highest-ranked bank in LMD 100
 ComBank presented prestigious dual awards by Asiamoney
 Combank.lk becomes top ‘Banking and Finance’ website in Sri Lanka
 ComBank introduces breakthrough ‘Tap to Phone’ payments acceptance with PAYable
ECONOMY, BUSINESS & DEVELOPMENT
 ADB overturns growth forecast for SL – ADO 2022 (Sep)
 India, SL start bilateral discussions on debt-restructuring. Japan affirms their commitment
 Sharp foreign interest in government securities
 Government to review suspended imports list every fortnight
 Ceylon tea increases footprint in largest retail chains in Poland
 Dip in rubber prices amid lower demand from local shippers and foreign buyers
 SL ranks 73 out of 191 countries in latest Human Development Index
 Over 39% of population not consuming adequate diet
 News Snippets
GLOBAL OUTLOOK
 IMF bailouts hit record high as global economic outlook worsens
 The global race to hike rates tilts economies toward recession
 Bank of England intervenes in bond market after historic sell-off
 Pound crashes to all-time low with UK markets ‘under siege’
 Oil prices fall on fuel demand fears sparked by recession
concerns
Research & Development Unit

3. Banking &
Finance

4. Research & Development Unit
ComBank once again the highest-ranked bank in LMD 100
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has once
again been confirmed the highest-ranked bank
in the latest edition of the ‘LMD 100’ and is
the only bank among the Top 10 companies on
this prestigious list widely considered
Sri Lanka’s version of the Fortune 500.
The LMD 100 positions Sri Lanka’s largest private sector bank 7th overall in terms of
revenue and 6th overall in terms of profit among the largest business groups in the
country, proving the Bank’s mettle in what the magazine describes as a “watershed
year” for Sri Lanka’s listed entities.

5. Research & Development Unit
ComBank presented prestigious dual awards by
Asiamoney
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon recorded
a noteworthy feat on the international
stage, receiving two coveted
international awards from Asiamoney for
the third consecutive year.
The Bank was presented the awards for
‘Best Bank for Small and Medium
Enterprise (SME) Banking’ and ‘Best Bank
for Environmental, Social and Governance
(ESG)’at the 2022 Asiamoney awards

6. Research & Development Unit
Combank.lk becomes top ‘Banking and Finance’ website
in Sri Lanka
The corporate website of the Commercial Bank of
Ceylon has been recognized as the top ‘Banking
and Finance’ website in the country at the
BestWeb.lk 2022 competition hosted by the LK
Domain Registry.
The Bank won the Silver – the highest award
presented in its category – at the 12th edition of
the BestWeb.lk annual awards ceremony held
recently. Commercial Bank was presented the
same award in 2020 and won a Bronze at the 2017
BestWeb.lk competition. The Gold award was not
presented in the ‘Banking and Finance’ category
this year.

7. Research & Development Unit
ComBank introduces breakthrough ‘Tap to Phone’
payments acceptance with PAYable
The Commercial Bank of Ceylon has become the first Sri Lankan Bank to introduce
card acceptance through Android smartphones, allowing its merchants to
conveniently and cost effectively accept card payment transactions, changing the
landscape of the digital payment industry in Sri Lanka with this state-of-the-art low-
cost technology.
This solution converts any NFC-enabled Android smartphone into a payment
acceptance terminal.
To enjoy the convenience of this facility, merchants simply have to download the
PAYableTAP app, register with Commercial Bank, and perform Tap and Pay transactions
by simply allowing cardholders to tap their NFC enabled credit or debit cards on the
screen of the device to make payments.

8. Economy, Business
& Development
News
Research & Development Unit

9. Research & Development Unit
ADB overturns growth forecast for SL – ADO 2022 (Sep)
The Asian
Development Bank
(ADB) has lowered
Sri Lanka’s growth
outlook to a
negative 8.8% this
year as opposed to
a positive 2.4%
estimated in April.
Source : Asian Development Outlook 2022 (Sep)
ADB is also forecasting a 3.3% negative growth next year for
Sri Lanka revising from a 2.5% positive growth previously
forecast.
Inflation forecast for year 2022 was 44.8% and is expected to
drop to 18.6% in 2023. Current Account balance is forecasted
at -0.8% for this year and -0.9% for 2023.

10. India, SL start bilateral discussions on debt-
restructuring. Japan affirms their commitment
Research & Development Unit
India and Sri Lanka have begun bilateral discussions
on the restructuring of Sri Lanka’s external debt. The
Indian High Commission said in response to a recent
request from the Sri Lanka Government India held
the first round of discussions on 16 September on
restructuring Sri Lanka's bilateral official debt to
India.
Meanwhile Japan’s envoy to Sri Lanka also affirmed the country’s commitment toward the island nation, as it is
looking to restructure the foreign debt amounting to USD 30 billion.
Japan Ambassador to Sri Lanka Hideaki Mizukoshi said that the country stands by Sri Lanka in support of the debt
restructuring negotiation process, so that the nation can reach the final agreement with the International Monetary
Fund (IMF).

11. Research & Development Unit
Sharp foreign interest in government securities
Sri Lanka saw a sharp increase in
foreign interest in government
securities during the third week of
September, accelerating the trend
set off since the officials sealed a
preliminary deal with the
International Monetary Fund (IMF)
for a bailout package earlier this
month.
According to the data available through the week ended on September 21, foreigners added Rs.7,845 million worth of
rupee bills and bonds into their holdings, nearly doubling what they held at the end of September 14.
Third week of September marked the fourth successive week since foreigners began adding rupee securities into their
portfolios after some irregular ins and outs from the rupee denominated bills and bonds in the recent past.
Source : CBSL

12. Research & Development Unit
Government to review suspended imports list every
fortnight
The government is reviewing the suspended imports
list every fortnight to lessen the impact on industries.
As per recommendations of the Central Bank, the
government imposed a temporary ban on a wide
range of goods with effect from August 23 under the
Import and Export Control Act in order to manage the
limited forex reserves.
However, since the ban has hit local industries in
significant ways it was noted that the government is in
discussions with the industries to provide relief as
possible.

13. Research & Development Unit
Ceylon tea increases footprint in largest retail
chains in Poland
In a significant breakthrough, Sri Lanka’s tea exports to
the Polish retail market will increase from 2022
onwards with the expanded supply of Ceylon tea to
Poland’s largest retail chains Biedronka (Ladybird) and
Auchan.
Biedronka has already sourced a total of 109,699 kilos
of Ceylon tea, valued at USD 754,641.12 from the new
Sri Lankan export partner between February and July
2022.
This is an important opportunity for further expanding the Ceylon tea footprint in the Polish retail
market, while increasing the appreciation for Sri Lanka’s premium tea among the largely tea-drinking
Polish consumers

14. Research & Development Unit
Dip in rubber prices amid lower demand from local
shippers and foreign buyers
The local rubber sector has witnessed decline in
auction prices for the month of August, despite a
contraction in the overall output, amid weak
demand from local shippers and foreign buyers.
Forbes and Walker Commodity Brokers Director
Damitha Perera attributed the low demand to
sentiments on global recession and the dull
commodity market conditions across the world.

15. Research & Development Unit
SL ranks 73 out of 191 countries in latest Human
Development Index
Sri Lanka scored 0.782 points
in the latest Human
Development Index (HDI)-
2021, ra​n​king 73 out of 191
countries.
The HDI 2021 released by the
United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) recently
showed that Sri Lanka has​​
improved its ranking by two
places since 2020.
For the year of the pandemic,
Sri Lanka had an HDI score of
0.780.
The top three rankers of the HDI are Switzerland, Norway, and Iceland.
Read more : https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents/global-report-document/hdr2021-22pdf_1.pdf

16. Research & Development Unit
Over 39% of population not consuming adequate diet
The food security assessment carried out by the FAO and WFP in September 2022
revealed that approximately 8.7 million of Sri Lankans (39.1%) are not consuming an
adequate diet.
According to the two UN agencies, this represents a dramatic deterioration compared
to the third quarter of 2021, when a survey conducted by the Medical Research
Institute estimated only 3.4 % of the households had inadequate food consumption.
“The nutritional content of diets consumed by households was poor. For the
poorest households, diets were particularly lacking protein and iron-rich foods:
12.9% and 69.9% of the households in the lowest expenditure quintile had not
consumed any protein or iron-containing foods in the past seven days (when the
survey was carried out,” the report noted.
Read more - https://www.fao.org/3/cc1886en/cc1886en.pdf

17. News Snippets
Research & Development Unit
‘Save the Sri Lankan Smile’ a 4 month tourism
recovery campaign kicks off
With Sri Lanka being well known for its warm
hospitality and the heartfelt smile that keeps
reminding tourists to revisit Sri Lanka, industry
stakeholders kicked off a new campaign titled
‘Save the Sri Lankan Smile’.
Government earmarking 10 SOEs for liquidation
The government will soon roll out a special scheme for salvaging loss-
making State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) via restructuring or privatisation
opening up its management or ownership while liquidating failing
institutions with insolvency issues that cannot be resolved efficiently.
At least 10 out of 55 SOEs are earmarked for liquidation following
recommendations of the Auditor General’s department and five of the 55
SOEs classified as “strategically important “will be restructured under a
public private partnership model, an order issued by the Public
Enterprises Department Board revealed.
August credit card spend increases on inflation, semblance of economic
normalcy
People swiped their credit cards more in August as the total outstanding
credit card balance increased by Rs.3,228 million, perhaps reflecting
increased spending necessitated by the soaring inflation and returning of
some semblance of normalcy after the fuel crisis was largely brought
under control ending a near economic standstill in July.
Month of August records lowest tea
production in 28 years
Sri Lanka witnessed the lowest tea production
in 28 years for the month of August, with the
total output totalling 18.27Mn Kgs.

18. Global
Update
Research & Development Unit

19. IMF bailouts hit record high as global economic outlook
worsens
The IMF’s lending to economically troubled
countries has hit a record high as the world’s
lender of last resort battles simultaneous crises
that have pushed at least five countries into
default, with more expected to follow.
The pandemic, Russia’s attack on Ukraine and a
sharp rise in global interest rates have forced
dozens of countries to seek IMF assistance. A
Financial Times analysis of IMF data shows that
at the end of August the volume of loans
disbursed by the fund amounted to USD 140bn
in 44 separate programs.
Research & Development Unit
Source: IMF
Zambia and Sri Lanka — which both defaulted in the pandemic along with Lebanon, Russia and Suriname —
are negotiating IMF bailouts as part of efforts to restructure their debts. Ghana, Egypt and Tunisia are in
early talks for similar support.

20. The global race to hike rates tilts economies toward
*recession
Central banks are intent on driving the world economy
perilously close to a recession.
Late to see the worst inflation in four decades coming, and
then slow to crack down on it, the Federal Reserve and its
peers around the globe now make no secret about their
determination to win the fight against soaring prices — even
at the cost of seeing their economies expand more slowly or
even shrink.
Research & Development Unit
Source: Bloomberg-Economics
About 90 central banks have raised interest rates this year, and
half of them have hiked by at least 75 basis points in one shot.
Many did so more than once, in what Bank of America Corp. chief
economist Ethan Harris labels “a competition to see who can hike
faster.”
*Recession - In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction when there is a general decline in economic activity. Although the
definition of a recession varies between different countries and scholars, two consecutive quarters of decline in a country's real gross
domestic product (real GDP) is commonly used as a practical definition of a recession

21. Bank of England intervenes in bond market after historic
sell-off
Research & Development Unit
The Bank of England will suspend the planned start of
its government bonds selling next week and begin
temporarily buying long-dated bonds in order to calm
the market chaos unleashed by the new government’s
so-called mini-budget.
Yields on U.K. government bonds were on course for
their sharpest monthly rise since at least 1957 as
investors fled British fixed income markets following the
new fiscal policy announcements.
On September 05, Liz Truss was appointed as the new
UK PM. The new government then announced historical
fiscal measures. These measures included large swathes
of unfunded tax cuts that have drawn global
criticism, including from the IMF.
Bank of England said it was setting aside 65bn pounds
to buy bonds over the next 13 working days to ease
pressure on pension funds and insurance companies.
Source: The Guardian
"Under my leadership, I would start cutting taxes
from day one to take immediate action to help people
deal with the cost of living. It isn't right to be putting
up taxes now.“ – Liz Truss

22. Pound crashes to all-time low with UK markets ‘under
siege’
Research & Development Unit
The pound plunged almost 5% to an
all-time low after UK Chancellor of
the Exchequer (Finance minister)
Kwasi Kwarteng vowed to press on
with more tax cuts, stoking fears that
the new Chancellor of the
Exchequer’s fiscal policies will send
inflation and government debt
soaring.
The slump was sterling’s biggest intraday decline since March 2020, when investor
panic over the then-nascent Covid-19 pandemic was roiling markets worldwide.
Source: Bank of England, Bloomberg

23. Oil prices fall on fuel demand fears sparked by recession
concerns
Research & Development Unit
Oil prices fell on Friday (23) on fears
of lower fuel demand from an
expected global recession sparked by
rising worldwide interest rates and as
a surging U.S. dollar limits the ability
of non-dollar consumers to purchase
crude.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg Commodities
The dollar index that measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies
climbed to a 20 year high on Friday (23).
A stronger greenback tends to curtail demand for dollar-denominated oil since buyers
using other currencies must spend more to buy crude.

24. The views expressed in Economic Capsule are not necessarily those of the Management of Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC
The information contained in this presentation has been drawn from sources that we believe to be reliable. However, while we have taken reasonable care to maintain
accuracy/completeness of the information, it should be noted that Commercial Bank of Ceylon PLC and/or its employees should not be held responsible, for providing the
information or for losses or damages, financial or otherwise, suffered in consequence of using such information for whatever purpose.
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