2. DERIVATIVE WEEKLY VIEW
1
WEEKLY RECOMMENDATION
Trading for the week began with a downside gap and it probably set the mood for the entire week. The mounting
concerns over NBFCs started spooking traders’ sentiments which was fuelled by massive sell off in US markets
during the midweek. On Tuesday as well as Friday, despite early morning lead, our markets succumbed to the
selling pressure and eventually went on to slide below the 11200mark. On a weekly basis, index shed nearly 3
percent which was biggest weekly fall in last couple of months.Exactly two weeks ago, everybody was so ecstatic,
jubilant after FM’s announcement on slashing the corporate taxes. This triggered colossal two-day rally in our
market to take a giant leap. Who would have thought then, we will again have to undergo that similar pain that we
have been witnessing since last 12 –15 monthshow market behaves around it in the forthcoming week and be
hopeful to have some positive development.
Weekly future recommendation
NIFTY (FUTURE) AT 11248 TGT 11448
5 October 2019
3. 2
Firstlyas we highlighted the 50% retracement of the recent up move which coincides with the ’20
SMA’ on daily chartand more importantly, the previous breakout zone of 11200 –11100, which
now ideally should act as a sheet anchor support for the Nifty. Let see how market behaves
around it in the forthcoming week and be hopeful to have some positive development.As far as
levels are concerned, below 11100we may see selling getting aggravated and on the flipside, a
resumption of uptrend should only happen if Nifty manages to sustain above 11400.
Traders are advised to keep a tab of all the above mentioned levels and should ideally avoid
taking undue risks.
Nifty spot closed at 11174.75this week, against a close of
11512.40 lastweek.
DERIVATIVE WEEKLY VIEW
14 SEPTMEBER 2019
4. 3
The BankNifty too opened marginally positive in yesterday's session. However, the index
rallied sharply in the first hour of the trade and at one point, traded with gains of more
than 1100 points.
It then gave up some of those gains and then consolidated in a range for the rest of the
session to close tad above the 30000 mark. In last few sessions, we have witnessed
some wild swing in the BankNifty index.
However, the trend continued to be positive and as we had mentioned earlier, the
downmove of couple of sessions was just a correction within an uptrend which has been
bought into. The Monday's gap area of 29776-29420 acted as a support as the
momentum again turned in favor of the trend.
We continue with our advice for traders to trade with a positive bias and look for stocks
within the sector which have been outperforming in the recent upmove.
BANK NIFTY - Bank Nifty Weekly Expiry Analysis
DERIVATIVE WEEKLY VIEW
5 October 2019
5. 4
More rate cuts to keep depreciation pressure on the
Indian Ruppe
The USD/INR has been in a range of 68.4-72 this year. The USD/INR is kept in check by
opposing forces: Softer growth and rate cuts in India are a drag on the INR, while rate cuts by
the Federal Reserve work the other way. The rise in oil prices lately is a headwind for the INR
and a risk going forward. We expect more rate cuts to keep depreciation pressure on the INR
and look for USD/INR to move to 74 in 12M.”
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut rates by 25bp on 4 October to 5.15% on the back of
growth disappointments and inflation running below target. We look for another cut in
December of 25bp to 4.90 to underpin growth further.”
According to analysts from Danske Bank, falling inflation in India paves the way for more
monetary easing that would keep the Indian Ruppe under pressure. They forecast USD/INR at
72.0 in 3M and at 73.0 in 6M.
Still, growing fears of a global recession have dented risk appetite for emerging markets,
with returns from purchasing developing nation currencies with dollars easing since July,
according to a Bloomberg index. India is also tussling with its slowest growth in six years,
which had raised fears of outflows of foreign funds and a weaker rupee.
DERIVATIVE WEEKLY VIEW
5 October 2019
6. 5
Rig Count Falls For Seventh Straight Week
The US oil and gas rig count fell for the seventh week in a row this week, decreasing by 5,
according to Baker Hughes, but US oil companies are still pumping oil at record rates.
The total oil and gas rig count now stands at 855, 197 down from this time last year.
The total number of active oil rigs in the United States decreased by 3 according to the
report, reaching 710. The number of active gas rigs decreased by 2 to reach 144.
Oil rigs have seen a loss of 151 rigs year on year, with gas rigs down 45 since this time last
year, compared to 858 and 187 active rigs, respectively, at the beginning of the year.
Still, in the United States, weekly oil production is near an all-time high. So while the number
of oil rigs have declined by 167 this year alone, production has grown from 11.7 million bpd
at the beginning of the year, to 12.4 million bpd for week ending September 27, easing
slightly off a 12.5 million bpd high.
Canada’s overall rig count increased this week again, with oil and gas rigs climbing by 17,
after last week’s 8-rig increase. Oil and gas rigs in Canada are down 38 year on year.
DERIVATIVE WEEKLY VIEW
5 October 2019
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