Daily Economic Update for October 27, 2010
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Mortgage purchase applications increased slightly for the week ending October 22nd but were down 30.8% from the same week last year. New home sales rose 6.6% in September to an annual pace of 307,000 homes, though supply fell to 8 months and median prices increased slightly. New orders for durable goods grew 3.3% in September, though the report was weaker excluding increased commercial aircraft demand.
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Daily Economic Update for November 24, 2010
Mortgage purchase applications increased 14.4% for the week ending November 19th, though seasonal factors may be skewing the data. Refinances fell 1.0% as mortgage rates rose to 4.50% for 30-year fixed loans. Jobless claims decreased to 407,000, the lowest since July 2008. Personal income and consumer spending both rose in October, providing a positive sign for holiday shopping. New home sales declined 8.1% in October from September and 28.5% from the previous year, with the median new home price at its lowest level since 2003.
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Daily Economic Update: September 22, 2010
Mortgage purchase applications fell 3.3% for the week ending September 17th and remain near 13-year lows, while refinances fell 0.9% and made up 81.1% of mortgage activity. House prices declined slightly by 0.5% in July according to the FHFA and are down 3.3% year-over-year.
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Mortgage purchase applications increased 14.4% for the week ending November 19th, though seasonal factors may be skewing the data. Refinances fell 1.0% as mortgage rates rose to 4.50% for 30-year fixed loans. Jobless claims decreased to 407,000, the lowest since July 2008. Personal income and consumer spending both rose in October, providing a positive sign for holiday shopping. New home sales declined 8.1% in October from September and 28.5% from the previous year, with the median new home price at its lowest level since 2003.
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The document summarizes concerns about the Federal Housing Administration's (FHA) low down payment mortgage program and its effects. It notes that FHA's capital reserves have fallen dangerously low due to increased defaults. While FHA borrowers' credit has improved since 2007, the agency now insures a much larger share of loans with low down payments, which some argue increases risk. However, data shows that high loan-to-value FHA loans have lower foreclosure rates than other products, and stricter underwriting has boosted credit profiles. Removing FHA's low down payment options could significantly hurt the housing market but also reduce risks to taxpayers.
Metro Area Monthly Mortgage Payments: 2005 vs 2010
The document compares median home prices and estimated monthly mortgage payments in 2010 and 2005 for various metro areas in the United States. It shows that for most metro areas, median home prices and monthly payments decreased between 2005 and 2010, with percentage decreases typically ranging from 5-50%. A few metro areas such as Honolulu saw smaller decreases or even increases over this period.
Metro Area Unemployment
Detroit saw the largest year-over-year decline in unemployment rate from November 2009 to November 2010, though this was partially due to a reduction in the labor force. Las Vegas saw the largest increase in unemployment rate, and Denver, Miami, and New Orleans all experienced increases over 1%. Unemployment rates varied across major metro areas from 4-16% in November 2010.
State by State Employment Trends
The document contains charts from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showing total nonagricultural employment numbers for various states from 2006 to 2010. The charts provide monthly seasonally adjusted employment figures in thousands of workers for states including Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Washington D.C., Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, and Idaho.
Economic Indicators for the Week of January 18th
This document provides a weekly economic forecast and updates from January 18-21, 2011. It forecasts modest GDP growth of 2.5-2.8% in 2010-2011 and 1.9 million new jobs added in 2011. Mortgage rates are expected to be around 5.3% by mid-2011 while unemployment is forecasted to be 9.2%. Economic updates throughout the week report on housing starts, existing home sales, jobless claims and mortgage rates.
Summary of December 2010 Existing-Home Sales
The document summarizes existing home sales statistics for December 2010. It shows that total existing home sales decreased 3.3% from December 2009 but median home prices rose 1.2% year-over-year. Charts depict trends in annualized sales, median prices, and price changes from 2006-2010. Sales were strongest in the South and West and weakest in the Northeast and Midwest. Most homes sold were priced between $100,000-$250,000, though sales of higher-priced homes rose while lower-priced homes fell.
Inflation Watch for January, 2011
Inflation is important for real estate agents because changes in prices can impact interest rate policy set by the Federal Reserve. During the financial crisis, there were fears of deflation leading to a downward price spiral similar to the Great Depression. While deflation fears have lessened, some worry high inflation in coming years could result in stagflation, with high unemployment and inflation making it hard for central banks to address inflation without further hurting jobs. Commodity and metal prices are rising along with oil, adding inflationary pressure, though the dollar is showing recent strength against these pressures.
Daily Economic Update for January 5, 2011
Mortgage purchase applications fell slightly last week while refinancing increased, and average 30-year mortgage rates rose. An ADP survey found private payrolls rose by 297,000 in December, much higher than predicted and led by gains at medium and small sized businesses in the service sector.
Daily Economic Update for January 04, 2011
Factory orders rose 0.7% between October and November, stronger than expected, led by gains in fabricated metals, computers, and electronics. While industrial machinery and aircraft orders fell, non-durable goods orders rose 1.7% and capital goods orders excluding aircraft rose 1.1%, suggesting businesses are investing again which will support economic expansion and job growth.
Daily Economic Update, January 3, 2011
Construction spending increased by 0.4% in November for the third consecutive month, driven by a 3.3% rise in public non-residential spending, while private residential and non-residential spending declined; the construction market remains weak with excess supply and mostly government office projects. The ISM manufacturing index rose to 57.0 in December, signaling economic expansion, as new orders and production increased substantially.
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Pending Home Sales Statistics
The November 2010 pending home sales statistics document contains the following key points:
1) The National Association of Realtors' pending home sales index decreased 5.0% in November 2010 compared to November 2009.
2) By region, pending home sales decreased the most in the West at 17.6% year-over-year, followed by the Midwest at 7.7% and the South at 7.2%.
3) Pending home sales increased 3.5% from October 2010 to November 2010 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
Daily Economic Update: December 30, 2010
Jobless claims fell to their lowest level in over two years at 388,000 for the week, below the 400,000 threshold needed for sustainable job creation. This confirms that the economy is improving as job creation is happening. At the height of the recession, jobless claims peaked at 651,000 in March 2009, showing the progress that has been made in recovering jobs lost during the economic downturn.
Daily Economic Update, December 28, 2010
Home prices for the S&P/Case Shiller 20-city index decreased 1% in October compared to September and 0.8% compared to October 2009, with only 4 cities seeing year-over-year gains. Consumer confidence decreased in December according to the Conference Board's index, driven by a decline in perceptions of the present situation and jobs being difficult to obtain. The graph shows declines in both the home price index and consumer confidence index since mid-2007, demonstrating their link to employment growth and consumer sentiment.
Daily Economic Update, December 27, 2010
Oil prices rose as cold weather hit parts of the US and Europe, increasing $0.26 per barrel to $93.72. Prices last exceeded $100 per barrel in 2008, and may reach that level again in the first half of 2011 due to rising demand during winter. An economic research group reported on current oil price increases and potential future rises.
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Existing Home Sales Statistics
- Total existing home sales in November 2010 decreased 27.9% from November 2009.
- The median price of existing homes sold in November 2010 increased 0.4% compared to November 2009.
- Existing home inventory increased 46.2% nationally from November 2009 to November 2010.
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Metro Area Monthly Mortgage Payments: 2005 vs 2010
Metro Area Monthly Mortgage Payments: 2005 vs 2010
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Pending Home Sales Statistics
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Pending Home Sales Statistics
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Existing Home Sales Statistics
Summary of NOVEMBER 2010 Existing Home Sales Statistics
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