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RESEARCH REPORT
COSCO ESP Ltd
October 2006
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 1
VSA Resources is committed to providing objective research. This report has been commissioned
by COSCO ESP Ltd and is therefore unlikely to be perceived as objective.
Your attention is further drawn to the disclaimer at the end of this research report.
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 2
Investment Summary: A bright prospect beckons
COSCO ESP Ltd is an Irish based holding company that for the last 20 years has
provided high quality Electric Submersible Pump (ESP) equipment, including surface
and control systems it manufactures and downhole components it distributes. Its
traditional markets are North Africa, the Middle East, and the Russian Federation.
Advantage over competitors
COSCO has a distinct advantage over some of its competitors because it can supply
its own control products. Consequently, its products give better protection to the
system equipment, while capturing more operational data. COSCO also has a
nationality advantage in certain countries where customers prefer to have a supplier
from a perceived neutral country.
Future prospects
COSCO hopes to become a manufacturer and distributor par excellence of ESP
equipment and systems, and establish regional test/repair/service centres at a time
when the market for ESP systems and ancillary services is expected to grow
significantly to meet the world’s increased demand for oil. It is likely that COSCO will
establish a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China to supply new products
and replacement components more efficiently to customers. Joint ventures with a
Saudi Arabian and another Middle Eastern partner are expected soon.
Financials
We estimate that COSCO could increase its revenue stream from US$1.9m in 2005
to just under US$4m this year if its current expansion plans are successful. This is
likely to mean that net earnings would rise significantly from a loss of US$63,000 to
a profit of US$186,000 in 2006 increasing to US$3.6m in 2008.
Pre-IPO funding
The Company is seeking US$6.5m to establish a motor and pump manufacturing
facility in China, expand its submersible pump and repair business, increase its
market presence, especially in Africa and the Middle East, and expand its working
capital base in order to finance existing and larger contracts.
Valuation – significant upside
In arriving at a value for COSCO we have used a number of tools, such as
prospective 2007 earnings and cash flow multiples. On this basis, we value COSCO
at between $16.9m and $31.5m, giving an average of $24.2m.
Pre-IPO Funding
COSCO ESP Ltd Price n/a
Market Cap €m n/a
SHARE DETAILS
CODE n/a
LISTING n/a
SECTOR n/a
SHARES IN ISSUE 38,064,426
PRICE
52 weeks
High Low
n/a n/a
BALANCE SHEET
Debt/Equity (%) 0
NAV (US$m) 24.2
(Net borrowings)/Cash (US$m) 0.8
BUSINESS
GEOGRAPHY (based on revenues))
CANADA LIBYA MIDDLE EAST OTHER
0% 34.5% 54.3% 11.2%
ANALYST
Brian McBeth 020 7628 3989
bmcbeth@vsaresources.com
SALES
Neil Pidgeon 020 7628 3989
npidgeon@vsaresources.com
COSCO is a holding company that
manufactures and distributes high
quality Electric Submersible
Pumps, together with surface
control systems and components.
The Company is based in
Edmonton (Canada), and has an
operating unit in Malta serving its
Libyan clients.
Year end Revenue PBT EPS DPS PE Yield
31 Mar (US$000s) (US$000s) (US$) (US$) (x) (%)
FRS3 FRS3
2006a 1899 -228 (0.006) 0 0 0
2007e 3900 254 0.007 0 0 0
2008e 13600 2471 0.065 0 0 0
2009e 20280 4132 0.109 0 0 0
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 3
4 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Investment summary: A new kid on the block
Strategy is to build on
Company’s unique experience
COSCO ESP Ltd (COSCO) is an Irish based holding
company that for the last 20 years has manufactured
and distributed high quality Electric Submersible
Pumps (ESPs), together with surface control systems
and components. COSCO manufactures ESP
penetrators, switchgear, downhole sensors, ESP
controllers and dataloggers, and auxiliary products.
COSCO formerly distributed Temtex pumps and
motors in Libya, and was a reseller in other markets.
Currently such components are obtained from other
third party sources. Its traditional markets are in North
Africa, the Middle East, and the Russian Federation.
COSCO also manufactures the Vortex ESP controller
under an exclusive license for the Libyan market. This
controller was developed by COSCO’s President Mark
Dorin and others, and sold to Centrilift in 1991. From
1998 to 2000, COSCO was the majority owner of
Control Telecom Inc., and worldwide distributor for
the CTI ESP controller until it sold its interest in the
company to Wood Group ESP. COSCO has therefore
been involved in the development and marketing of
two of the main three control systems used in the
industry. COSCO is currently developing a new
advanced controller/datalogger.
COSCO’s combined product line is possibly equal or
better both in range and quality than that of some its
major American and British competitors.
The Company's advanced technology control and
monitoring equipment allows improved management
of oil production from new and existing oil reservoirs
and increased protection of ESP equipment.
Valuation: conservative value with
significant upside
In arriving at a value for COSCO we have used a
number of tools such as prospective 2007 earnings
and cash flow multiples. It is clear that owing to its
size and business, COSCO is much smaller than its
nearest competitors such as Schlumberger and Baker
Hughes. In order to reflect this disparity in size we
have discounted the above multiples by 25%.
COSCO can then be valued at between US$16.9m and
US$31.5m, giving an average of US$24.2m
Sensitivities: Challenges of
operating in emerging markets
The Company faces four main challenges:
1. To establish COSCO as a first class service
company in the area of ESPs by using its own
technology, which is competitively priced,
technologically more advanced, and with field
proven equipment and systems that generate
greater field operational data for optimising
production and maintaining oilfield production
while minimising production costs.
2. To establish a motor and pump manufacturing
facility in China.
3. To become a manufacturer and distributor par
excellence of ESP equipment and systems, with
regional test/repair/service centres in Libya,
Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East.
4. To maintain or increase its market share in its
main markets, and to expand in other areas of
the world such as the Russian Federation and
South America.
Financials: positive cash flow in 2007
The buoyancy of the oil market is expected to
benefit COSCO considerably this year and for the
foreseeable future. It should be noted that COSCO’s
business is not reliant on high oil prices. In 2005,
COSCO reported a net loss of US$63,000 for the
year ending 31 March 2006. We expect turnover this
year to reach US$3.9m because of increased activity
in the Company’s main markets. Turnover is
expected to continue to rise in subsequent years
reaching US$20m in 2008, driven by its
establishment of a motor and pump manufacturing
facility in China and by its joint venture in Saudi
Arabia. Gross margins are expected to increase
owing to lower costs realized from China
manufacturing and a squeeze on the Company’s
suppliers. If our projections are correct, then we
would expect the Company to generate a large
amount of cash over the next 24 months, which will
serve it well in its capital expenditure programme
and possibly in paying a maiden dividend. We expect
net earnings to rise significantly from a loss of
US$63,000 in 2005 to a profit of US$4.1m in 2008.
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History
COSCO manufactures and/or distributes high quality
Electric Submersible Pump (ESP) systems, together with
surface control systems and components. In 1996, COSCO
added downhole pumps and motors to its product line,
and since then has been a complete ESP supplier. Over the
last 20 years, the company has supplied a quality product
line that has increased the productivity of oil wells while
reducing costs. The Company is registered in Ireland, with
its headquarters in Edmonton (Canada), and an operating
facility in Malta serving its Libyan clients. Its main markets
are Libya, the Middle East and the Russian Federation.
COSCO has a distinct advantage over some of its
competitors because it can supply its own control products.
Consequently, its products give better protection to the
system equipment while capturing more operational data.
COSCO’s combined product line is possibly equal or better in
range and quality than its competitors, and the Company has
a nationality advantage in certain countries where customers
prefer to have a supplier from a perceived neutral country.
Background
When there is insufficient natural pressure to bring the
crude oil to the surface, artificial lift is used to increase
hydrocarbon production. Such a method of assisting oil
production is increasingly used in mature oilfields that have
declining productivity, and in newer oil fields where
improvements in oilfield management practice become
more widely deployed and more rapidly adopted. (See
Appendix A for a fuller explanation). COSCO supplies
Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs), the fastest growing
section of the artificial lift market for hydrocarbons.
Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs)
The world ESP market has steadily grown and is over
$1.3 billion per annum, with continued growth expected.
ESP sales are half the artificial lift market, that is, sales of
ESPs exceed all other types of artificial lift combined.
ESPs require very little space and can be installed in highly
deviated wells, making them ideal for offshore operations.
ESPs are also used where there is insufficient reservoir
pressure to lift the oil. ESPs are best installed where there
is large production and insufficient reservoir pressure to lift
the crude oil. The intensity of ESPs in the industry is seen in
the following table.
Increasing Intensity of ESP Use
Year Industry World Oil Intensity Ratio
Revenues (US$m)* Production (m b/d)
1990 $330 66.7 5.0
2001 $985 77.0 12.8
2005 $1300 81.4 16.0
*COSCO estimates. Split 50-50 between equipment/ supplies &
testing/repair/service.
Source: COSCO
It is estimated that there are between 80,000 and 100,000
oil well ESP systems installed worldwide, with the Russian
Federation and the FSU accounting for 50% of the total
installed units. Russia relies heavily on ESPs but the systems
are generally smaller and less sophisticated, with the
Russian market accounting for only 20% by value of the
total ESP world market.
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 5
A new kid on the block
World distribution of ESPs
Region Russia/FSU USA/Canada Indonesia UKCS Africa Middle East Rest of SE Rest of World
ESP Units Installed 50000 15000 4000 1000 2200 2100 5000 5000
Oil Prod 2001 mb/d 8.8 11.1 1.1 7.3 9.5 23.9 5.4 9.1
Potential Resources 386.5 405.7 30 72.1 285.2 1248.5 100 402
ESP Growth Prospects Positive Static Static Static Strong Strong Strong Strong
ESP Market Size (US$m) $300 $310 $220 $50 $150 $220 $30 $60
COSCO Priority (high=5) 4 1 3 0 5 4 1 3
Source: COSCO
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6
With any ESP completion, operators are interested in
extending the life of the pump. There are major benefits in
doing this because it reduces the down time of the pump,
thus increasing production over time as well as reducing
the cost of replacing worn or damaged pumps.
It is estimated that ESPs can lift between 200 to 100,000
barrels of liquids at a maximum depth of 12,000 feet, and
are routinely found in reservoirs under water flood as well
as in offshore wells. ESPs have a working life of a few
weeks to 10 years. The average worldwide run life is
between 8 – 15 months.
In its most basic form, the ESP completion is a pump
powered by a coupled electric motor suspended
downhole on a tubing string. The pump receives power
from a cable secured to the exterior of the tubing, and
power is supplied by three-phase transformers.
A switchboard provides instrumentation for control and
motor protection. A junction box acts as a vent to prevent
gas migrating up the power cable and reaching the
electrical switchboard. The electric motor at the bottom of
the tubing string is isolated from well fluids by means of
special seal section (protector), which also equalizes the
pressure in the motor with the well bore pressure, and a
motor driven pump above it, which is normally a
multistage centrifugal pump. If free gas is present, a gas
separator is also used. Downhole instrumentation may be
used to monitor the performance of the well and protect
the motor from damage by overheating. A variable speed
drive may be used instead of a switchboard, allowing the
motor speed (rpm) to be varied, thereby providing a wider
volume range to be produced as opposed to operating
the unit at a fixed speed.
The discharge rate of the pump is a function of the
differential pressure across the pump system, which is
determined by the speed at which the pump motor rotates,
the pump impeller design, and the viscosity of the fluid.
The lift that the pump provides is determined by the
number of stages employed.
The wellhead needs special provisions to bring the ESP
power cable into the wellbore and provide sealing. A
service rig is used to pull and run the downhole equipment.
An ESP system has to be engineered before it can be
installed, with the sub-surface equipment meeting the
particular specifications of a well: One of many possible
pump types is chosen to provide the volume required, the
number of pump stages is determined to provide the
required lift, and the motor size is dependent on the pump
type and number of stages. Cable conductor size is
dependent on the motor size and operating parameters.
Quality well data is required to properly size an ESP unit
and is often unavailable.
Numerous factors affect the run life of an ESP such as:
(1) proper design; (2) power supply quality; (3) downhole
conditions (temperature, presence of gas, sand or corrosive
fluids); (4) using effective controls that properly protect the
installation; (5) operational practices; and (6) operating the
unit within the optimal flow rate range. Pulling the ESP from
the well is often more costly than the ESP equipment itself.
Oil well ESP equipment is highly specialised and is
principally obtained from the primary ESP suppliers or
their regional distributors. Those having a test/repair
facility/ service in reasonably close proximity to the oil
field where the ESP is used may have an advantage over
other suppliers. The components of an ESP system are
serviced, repaired, modified, replaced and upgraded
many times over the production life of a well. The cost of
a complete ESP system can vary from less than
$100,000 US dollars to over $500,000 US dollars per well
(ESP components only).
Downhole Sensors
Downhole sensors are sometimes used to monitor and log
information used for reservoir management and ESP
monitoring and control. Sensors may be attached to
common brands of ESP motors if an upper tandem or centre
tandem motor is employed. Data is transmitted to the
surface via a digital signal that travels along the main ESP
power cable, and a surface choke is used to isolate the
motor voltage before the signal is interpreted by the surface
interface panel. Various types of downhole sensors exist in
terms of complexity, reliability and price, and whether or not,
and how, data is electronically stored in memory.
ESPs & COSCO
COSCO supplies ESPs that increase fluid, and hence
hydrocarbon, production when there is insufficient
natural pressure to bring crude oil to the surface or when
there is a need to increase production. It also
manufactures and distributes ESP surface control systems
and accessories, including motor controls, switchgear,
Variable Speed Drives, wellhead equipment and
connector (electric feed-through) systems, transformers,
downhole sensors and monitoring equipment, and motor
lead flat extension cables.
COSCO manufactures the Vortex ESP controller under an
exclusive license for the Libyan market. Developed by
COSCO’s President Mark Dorin and others, it was sold to
Centrilift in 1991. More oil well ESPs are controlled by
Vortex equipment than any other ESP control device.
COSCO was previously the majority shareholder of Control
Telecom Inc., and worldwide distributor for the CTI ESP
controller. It sold its interest in the company to Wood
COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
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Group ESP. As a result, COSCO has been largely
responsible for much of the control innovation in the ESP
industry and has a successful track record of introducing
new products to the industry. COSCO is currently
developing a new ESP control system that should become
the leading control device when it goes live.
COSCO’s advanced monitoring equipment allows
customers to maximize production, extend the
equipment’s life, and reduce down time and operational
costs while optimising well performance and data
gathering. COSCO’s subsidiary, COSCO Pump
Company Limited is a full service ESP supplier with a
primary focus on Middle East markets, headquartered in
Sliema, Malta.
COSCO’s product line and services provided are given
below.
International Market
There are 11 primary suppliers of ESP systems that control 95
% of the world market, of which five, viz, Schlumberger
(Reda), Baker-Hughes (Centrilift), Wood Group (Wood Group
ESP), Weatherford and COSCO, are active internationally.
The other six primary suppliers (Russian (3), Chinese (2) and
Saudi (1)) mainly confine their activities to their domestic
markets. COSCO can compete in product, technology and
price against its large competitors but it clearly needs to
increase its capacity to compete for after-market service, and
establish a stronger profile in the market.
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 7
Motor Controllers
Variable Speed Drive
Switchboard
Penetrator ESP Wellhead with Penetrator ESP Transformer
Discharge
Head
Pump
Gas Separator
Protector
Cable
Motor
Down Hole
Sensor
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Future Growth
In order to achieve its targets, COSCO intends to establish
a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China at a cost
of around $5m. The addition of pump and motor
manufacturing will mean that COSCO will have an
internally-sourced product line similar to that of any other
ESP competitor.
COSCO has acquired the Intellectual Property required to
manufacture “Reda Type” ESP pumps, motors, protectors,
gas separators, and associated equipment to be
manufactured in the Tianjin/Baodi district of Tianjin City,
some 70 kilometres away from Beijing, with a population of
10 million people.
In order to attract foreign investment, the local
government will grant tax breaks to companies with a
capital of $1m or over. As a result, when COSCO
establishes the motor and pump facility, it will enjoy a two
year income tax holiday and after that will only pay 50% of
normal corporation tax over the next six years.
There are other possible benefits to manufacturing in
China for COSCO. The majority owned Chinese
government oil companies such as CNPC and Sinopec are
aggressively acquiring oil fields worldwide that utilize ESPs.
It is anticipated that the Chinese government will give
preference to Chinese ESP manufacturers such as COSCO
because none of the domestic suppliers have international
service capabilities.
In addition, COSCO is negotiating to purchase a
test/repair facility in Libya. It is also in discussions with two
possible partners in Saudi Arabia and Iran to set-up two
joint ventures to provide service/test/repair facilities. The
joint venture partners would provide factory space and
purchase a minimum of between $3.5m – 6m in shop repair
equipment and inventory. Each joint venture will distribute
COSCO equipment, perform repairs and provide service
within a territory.
The ability of having service/test/repair facilities means that
COSCO will benefit from the increased business of
servicing and repairing its own equipment as well as
servicing the equipment of other manufacturers. It is also
clear that by expanding its service and distribution
channels that COSCO will gain market share and
manufacturing scale, allowing the Company to expand into
new markets.
Management and Operational Centres
The Company’s main operational and manufacturing
centre is at Edmonton, Canada. It also has a sales and
engineering office in Malta servicing the North African
market, with local agents active in Saudi, Oman/UAE,
Sudan/Egypt and Iran.
Directors & Senior Management
The Directors and Senior Management of the Company are
given below:
Mark Dorin President
Co-founder of COSCO and president since 1998. He has
a 30 year background in oilfield production and ESPs, with
20 years in the ESP industry, starting two successful ESP
industry companies.
Andrew Male Director, VP Corporate Finance
Corporate Finance background, mainly in raising capital
and corporate governance.
Andrew Walker Director, Chief Counsel
Securities Lawer. Legal Director on many boards of listed
companies.
Geoffrey Warr Manager, COSCO Pump Company Malta
Has a degree in engineering, and an MBA. Over 15 years
experience in the ESP industry, primarily in Libya.
8 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
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Sensitivities: four main challenges
The Company faces four main challenges:
1. To establish COSCO as a first class service company in
the area of ESPs. The Company expects to achieve this
by using its own technology, which is competitively
priced, technologically more advanced, and with field
proven equipment and systems designed to generate
greater field operational data for optimising and
maintaining oilfield production while minimising
production costs.
2. To establish a motor and pump manufacturing facility
in China.
3. To become a manufacturer and distributor par
excellence of ESP equipment and systems, with
regional test/repair/service centres in Libya, Saudi
Arabia, and Iran.
4. To maintain or increase its market share in its main
markets in North Africa and the Middle East, and to
expand in other areas of the world such as the Russian
Federation and South America.
Financials
At the moment, COSCO manufactures at its Edmonton
base around 10%-15% of the total value of an ESP system,
with the rest purchased from third parties. The largest
component by value in an ESP system is the pump
assembly, power cable, and transformers, representing
approximately 60 % of the total cost of supplying the ESP
system. When COSCO acquires its motor and pump
manufacturing facilities in China, it will be able to capture a
larger share of the value added by these two components
in the ESP system. It is estimated that gross margins for a
variable speed ESP is around 40 %, whereas for a fixed
speed system it is higher at between 50%-55%.
The buoyancy of the oil market is expected to benefit
COSCO considerably this year and for the foreseeable
future. In 2005, COSCO reported net loss of US$63,000 but
we expect turnover this year to reach US$3.9m because of
increased activity in the Company’s main markets. Turnover
is expected to continue to rise reaching US$13.6m in 2007
and US$20.2m in 2008, driven by its new motor and pump
manufacturing facility in China and by its joint venture in
Saudi Arabia. (See table below)
The rapid increase in turnover is based on the following
assumptions:
• Establishment of motor and pump manufacturing
facilities in China.
• In Libya, COSCO will own 100 % of its repairs-test-
servicing facility.
• For the rest of North Africa, the large increase in
revenue will be mainly from Egypt.
• Joint ventures established in Saudi Arabia, and Iran.
• COSCO establishes a foothold in Indonesia, Venezuela
and Ecuador.
Gross margins are expected to increase owing to a rise in
turnover as well as a squeeze on the Company’s suppliers.
If our projections are correct, then we would expect the
Company to generate a large amount of cash over the next
24 months, which will serve it well in its capital expenditure
programme and in paying a maiden dividend. Our forecast
together with the balance sheet and cash flow projections
are given below.
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 9
Estimated Revenue Projections ( US$m)
New Equipment Service Revenues
Surface Downhole Other Testing Repair Field
Equipment ESP Equip supplies Service Service Service TOTAL
2006e 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.9
2007e 4.5 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 13.6
2008e 8.2 8.3 2.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 20.3
Source: VSA Resources
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 9
Profit & Loss, Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Projections
Year-end March 31
US$000s US$000s US$000s US$000s
2006a 2007e 2008e 2009e
Revenue 1,899.00 3,900.00 13,600.00 20,280.00
Cost of sales (963.00) (2,028.00) (7,072.00) (10,550.00)
Gross profit 936.00 1,872.00 6,528.00 9,730.00
EBITDA (210.00) 1,772.00 5,728.00 8,730.00
Depreciation (17.00) (50.00) (400.00) (500.00)
Operating profit (before GW and except.) (193) 1,822 6,128 9,230
Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0
% of intangile assets 0% 0% 0% 0%
Exceptionals 0.00 0 0 0
Administrative expenses (1,129.00) (1,500.00) (3,000.00) (4,000.00)
Operating profit/(loss) (243.00) 322.00 3,128.00 5,230.00
Net interest (32) (18) (35) (45)
Other 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Exceptionals 165.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Profit before tax (norm) (228.00) 322.00 3,128.00 5,230.00
Profit before tax (FRS 3) (63.00) 254.00 2,693.00 4,685.00
Tax 0.00 (67.60) (656.80) (1,098.30)
Profit after tax (norm) (228.00) 254.40 2,471.20 4,131.70
Profit after tax (FRS3) (63.00) 186.40 2,036.20 3,586.70
Minority interest 0 0 0 0
Net income (norm) (228.00) 254.40 2,471.20 4,131.70
Net income (FRS 3) (63.00) 186.40 2,036.20 3,586.70
Average number of shares outstanding (m) 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0
Share options and others outstanding (m) 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0
EPS - normalised (US$) (0.006) 0.007 0.065 0.109
EPS - normalised and fully diluted (US$) (0.006) 0.007 0.065 0.109
EPS - FRS 3 (US$) (0.002) 0.005 0.054 0.094
Dividend (US$) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 10
Balance Sheet
Year-end March 31
Fixed assets 356.00 1,250.00 6,200.00 8,700.00
Intangible assets 300.00 800.00 1,200.00 1,200.00
Tangible assets 56.00 450.00 5,000.00 7,500.00
Investment in associates & JV's 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Current assets 814.00 1,989.00 6,936.00 10,342.80
Stocks 196.00 585.00 2,040.00 3,042.00
Debtors 306.00 819.00 2,856.00 4,258.80
Cash 312.00 585.00 2,040.00 3,042.00
Other 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Current liabilities (1,091.00) (1,950.00) (6,120.00) (9,126.00)
Creditors (868.00) (1,560.00) (4,760.00) (7,098.00)
Tax and social security 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Short term borrowings (223.00) (390.00) (1,360.00) (2,028.00)
Long term liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Long term borrowings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other long term liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Net assets 79.00 1,289.00 7,016.00 9,916.80
Minority interest 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Shareholders equity 79.00 1,289.00 7,016.00 9,916.80
Year-end no of shares m 38.04 38.04 38.04 38.04
Opening shareholders equity 94.50 79.00 1,289.00 7,016.00
Net debt/(cash) (89.00) (195.00) (680.00) (1,014.00)
Net current assets (277.00) 39.00 816.00 1,216.80
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow (299.00) 1,772.00 5,728.00 8,730.00
Net Interest (32.00) (18.00) (35.00) (45.00)
Tax 0.00 (67.60) (656.80) (1,098.30)
Capex (11.00) (500.00) (750.00) (750.00)
(Acquisitions)/disposals 0.00 (2,000.00) (2,500.00) 0.00
Equity financing 583.00 6,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00
Dividends 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other (166.00) 250.00 250.00 250.00
Net Cash Flow 75.00 5,936.40 4,536.20 9,586.70
Opening net debt/(cash) (174.00) (249.00) (6,185.40) (10,721.60)
HP finance leases initiated 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Other 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Closing net debt/(cash) (249.00) (6,185.40) (10,721.60) (20,308.30)
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP PLC PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 11
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 11
Pre-IPO Funding and Use of New Funds
In order to capitalise on the strong ESP market, COSCO
wants to acquire a motor and pump manufacturing facility
in China and expand its submersible pump and repair
business as well as increasing its geographical reach,
especially in the Middle East. Up to now, COSCO has
funded its expansion from internal cash flow and short-
term loans from existing investors. Most contracts in the
ESP industry are large, placing a company without financial
muscle at a disadvantage. Consequently, if a company
does not have sufficient financial resources at its disposal it
is unable to win such contracts. COSCO finds itself in such
a position and can only bid on smaller contracts that it can
finance. COSCO has therefore decided to seek Pre-IPO
funds of US$6.5m that will allow it to grow in this particular
market segment.
The increase in funds will allow COSCO to bid and win
larger projects and establish its own downhole
manufacturing facility. Many companies with performance
based contracts (See Appendix A) will only deal with a
downhole manufacturer. The manufacturing facility means
that COSCO, apart from increasing its profit margins on
downhole equipment, will be able to bid on ESPs projects
worldwide instead of only in Libya. Finally, COSCO will
increase its operating margin significantly with its own
repair/test/service facilities. The use of the funds will be
distributed as follows:
Use of Funds (US$)
US$
Research & Development $250,000
Staffing & Training $800,000
Working Capital for Jobs Funding/Work in Progress $1,000,000
Manufacturing Facility and Intellectual Property $3,450,000
Trial Units $550,000
Costs and Expenses $450,000
TOTAL $6,500,000
Source: COSCO
Dividend Policy
COSCO does not expect to pay a dividend in the near
future. We expect that such a policy will be reviewed in
2008 when the Company will be in a stronger position to
pay a dividend if the situation warrants it.
Major Shareholders
The major shareholders are given below:
COSCO: Major Shareholders
Name %
Mark Dorin 25.8
Andrew Male 8.6
Andrew Walker 1.6
Cooperative Shareholders 26.7
Valuation
In arriving at a value for COSCO we have used a number of
tools that are appropriate for the sector in which it
operates. We have used prospective 2007 earnings and
cash flow multiples of the oil service companies that make
up the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index 11.1x and 9.4x
respectively.
It is clear that owing to its size and business, COSCO is
much smaller than the companies in the Philadelphia Oil
Service Sector index. In order to reflect this disparity in size,
in our valuation we have discounted the above multiples by
25 %. COSCO can then be valued at between US$16.9m
and US$31.5m as we can see in the table given below.
COSCO Valuation
Multiple US$m
Prospective 2007 P/E 8.3x 16.9
Prospective 2007 Cash-Flow 7.0x 31.5
Average of the above two 24.2
Source: VSA Resources
Comparative Valuation
There are no listed companies that are directly comparable
with COSCO’s area of expertise. As can be seen in the
table below, the ESP divisions of the 10 largest suppliers
are extremely small compared with the companies’ total
turnover. Robbins & Myers, Inc., a leading manufacturer of
Progressive Cavity Pumps (PCPs) as well as simple wellhead
equipment for low pressure applications, is perhaps the
closest company to compare COSCO. It has a market
capitalisation of US$417.5m , with a 2007 PER of 20.5x and
a PCF multiple of 13.6.
12 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 12
Primary ESP systems suppliers
Company ESP Sales 2005 Parent Parent’s Revenue ESPs sales as a Area of Operation
US$m 2005 US$bn % of total sales
Centrilift 350 Baker-Hughes 5.8 6.0 NA, Indonesia, UKCS, Latam, Middle East, Africa
Reda 300 Schlumberger 10.1 2.9 NA, Indonesia, UKCS, Latam, Middle East, Africa
Wood Group 180 John Wood 2.0 9.0 NA, Indonesia, UKCS, Latam, Middle East, Africa
COSCO Pump 1.9 COSCO n/a 100 Libya, ME, Russian Federation
Novomet 110 100 Russian Federation
Alnas 60 Yukos 11.4 0.5 Russian Federation
ShengLi 60 SinoPec 41.0 0.1 China
DaQing 50 China Nat Pet Co 29.5 2.1 China
Al Khorayef 30 Al Khorayef Group 2.0** - Saudi Arabia
Borets 20 Eastlink Lanker* - - Russian Federation
Weatherford 20 Weatherford 2.3 0.9 NA, Indonesia, UKCS, Latam, Middle East, Africa
Source: COSCO
* Major shareholder ** Estimate
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 13
Introduction
It is estimated that more than 90% of oil wells need some
form of artificial lift. The rate at which an oil well produces
oil and gas depends on the permeability (the rate of flow of
a liquid or gas through a porous material) and porosity (the
space between the rocks) of the producing horizon and the
natural pressure available that drives the hydrocarbons
towards the borehole. The casing of the borehole seals the
well from any fresh water intervals through which it passes
to prevent crude oil contaminating the water. A small-
diameter tubing string carries the oil and gas from the
reservoir to the surface and is centered in the wellbore. The
reservoirs are usually at a higher pressure than the wellbore
because of underground forces, with either a water or gas
drive forcing the hydrocarbons to the surface. A water drive
reservoir is linked to an active water aquifer that provides
the drive mechanism, whereas a gas drive reservoir gets its
energy from gas expanding from either a gas cap or from
gas breaking out of solution. Depending on the conditions
of the reservoir, the underground pressure at the start of a
APPENDIX A – Notes on Artificial Lift
Water Drive Reservoir Gas Drive Reservoir
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 13
14 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
well’s productive life will often push the hydrocarbons to
the surface for many years. However, when the pressure
differential is insufficient for the oil to flow naturally, then
some method of lifting the liquids artificially, such as ESPs,
needs to be installed to bring the oil to the surface.
Artificial Lift
Most wells have a predictable production rate known as a
decline curve, reaching peak production relatively soon after
first coming on-stream followed by a long, slow decline. It is
the condition of the reservoir that determines the shape and
the length of this decline curve, with some wells producing
for more than 50 years while others stop producing in
economic quantities after a few years. A variety of techniques
are can be used to curtail a well’s decline curve. A workover
can be performed, which involves cleaning out the wellbore
to help oil or gas move more easily to the surface. The
reservoir rock may be fractured or treated with acid around
the bottom of the wellbore in order to increase the channels
through which the oil and gas moves to the producing well.
Water can be injected into the reservoir to maintain pressure.
Such a method pushes the oil out of the pores in the rock
towards the producing well and maintains reservoir pressure.
In more advanced cases, enhanced oil recovery (EOR)
techniques are used, such as injecting into the reservoir
steam, nitrogen, carbon dioxide or a surfactant to remove
more oil from the pore spaces and increase production.
Most oil wells produce a combination of oil, gas, and water
that is separated at the surface. Initially, most of the liquids
from the reservoir may be oil and gas with small amounts of
water but with time water increases significantly. Increased
water production inevitably leads to the need for artificial lift
because the pressure formed by the column of oil/water
mixture in the wellbore may exceed the reservoir pressure.
Any system that adds energy to the fluid column in a
wellbore is defined as artificial lift. A number of different
operating principles are applied to generate artificial lift,
including rod pumping, gas lift and electrical submersible
pumps. The five different types of artificial lift technologies,
are detailed below.
1. Electric submersible pumps
2. Beam/Sucker rod pumps
3. Progressive Cavity pumps
4. Subsurface Hydraulic pumps
5. Gas lift
The use of a particular technology depends on the
characteristics of the reservoir, the individual oil well
parameters, and capital expenditure. In the 1990s, the
largest market for artificial lift was for Beam/Sucker Rods
(nodding donkeys) as can be seen from the table given
below. Since then, ESPs have grown significantly, and
currently account for over 50 % of the total market for
artificial lift.
Annual Sales US$m
Pump Type 1990 % 2001 %
Electric Submersible 330 28 985 52
Beam/Sucker Rod 496 43 546 29
Progressing Cavity 16 1 220 11
Subsurface Hydraulic 140 12 45 2
Gas Lift 180 16 110 6
Total 1162 100 1906 100
Source: Baker Hughes
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 14
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 15
Comparisons between Artificial Lift Types
Artificial Lift Type General Comment Comment
Beam Pumping/ A positive displacement pump is inserted Simple to operate and tends to be
Sucker Rod Pumps or set in the tubing near the bottom of the cheaper to use than other methods,
(Rod Lift) well. The pump plunger is connected to but are less efficient and have lower
the surface by a long rod string and pumping capacity.
operated by a beam unit at surface.
Progressive Cavity This consists of a surface drive, drive Low capital investment, more reliable
Pumps (PCP) string and downhole progressive cavity and better at dealing with solids such
pump. In some instances, an electric as sand and scale deposits. Lift
submersible motor is used (with a gear capacity limited and can not handle
reducer) instead of rods and surface much gas. Good for heavy oil production.
drive.
Subsurface Hydraulic This consists of a surface power fluid Has high initial capital costs and complex
Pumps system, a prime mover, a surface pump to operate. Good for multiple wells on
that pumps the power fluid, and a one surface pad location because one
downhole jet or reciprocating /piston surface power fluid package can provide
pump. Power fluid is mixed with produced power fluid to several wells. Any
fluid and separated at surface with the malfunction of surface equipment
power fluid re-used. means that all wells will not produce.
Electric Submersible ESP System has an electric motor and High volume and depth (lift) capacity;
Pumps centrifugal pump unit suspended high efficiency over 1,000 bopd; low
on a tubing production string and maintenance; minimal surface equipment
connected back to the surface control requirements; high resistance to
mechanism and transformer via an corrosive downhole environments;
electric power cable. Generally used adaptable to gas, sand causes problems.
where high volume fluid production Used in both deviated and vertical wells.
is required.
Gas lift Compressed gas is injected through Essentially, the liquids are lightened
gas lift mandrels and valves into the by the gas which allows the
production string, lowering the hydrostatic reservoir pressure to force the
pressure in the production string to fluids to surface. A source of
reestablish the required pressure gas, and compression equipment
differential between the reservoir and is required for gas lift. High
wellbore, thus causing the formation capital costs.
fluids to flow to the surface.
The advantages and disadvantages of the various systems of artificial lift pumps are given below.
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 15
16 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
The use of ESPs in the Middle East, where there was
previously little artificial lift used owing to wells flowing
naturally for decades, is largely responsible for the surge in
ESP installations in recent years. ESPs are usually the only
practical means of artificial lift in the Middle East due to the
ability of most wells to produce volumes that other forms of
artificial lift cannot provide economically. ESP use will only
become greater, and the pace of implementation should
only accelerate. Consequently, ESPs should continue to
capture more than half of the value of artificial lift
installations worldwide.
ESPs System
An ESP system is composed of a motor/centrifugal pump
combination that is submerged in the fluid to be pumped.
Submersible pumps are used in sewage pumping, general
industrial pumping, slurry pumping, and in oil wells.
However, designs for deep submersion applications differ
significantly from those used in shallow submersion water
well applications, as briefly outlined below:
• High voltage motors are used to reduce cable size
and cost
• The deeper the submersion, the higher the
temperature, which has an adverse effect on motor life
• Deep wells such as oil wells are smaller in diameter,
therefore slimmer pump and motor designs are required.
Well fluids are prevented from entering the motor and
causing a short circuit by a system of mechanical seals.
Water well submersible pumps are hermetically sealed;
while oil well submersible pumps employ a special seal
chamber (commonly called a protector) that equalizes the
pressure in the motor with the wellbore pressure to reduce
the chances of well fluids entering the motor.
Typical Surface Beam Pumping unit (Nodding Donkey) used for
Rod Lift
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 16
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 17
Pump Section Stages and
bearings shown
Pump Stage
(Impeller &
Diffuser)
The ESP system consists of a number of components that
turn a staged series of centrifugal pumps to increase the
pressure of the well fluid as it passes through the pump
and push it to the surface. The energy required to drive
the pump is provided by a special motor that works at
high temperatures of up to 232°C and high pressures, to
depths of up to 4.5 km and in casing sizes from 4.5 inches
to 13.38 inches.
The electric motor is submerged together with the rest of the
pump assembly at a pre-calculated depth in the well. ESP
motors differ from conventional electric motors in that the
internal airspace is filled with a high dielectric strength
mineral oil, that provides a non-compressible medium inside
the motor. In the case of hermetically sealed motors, this
prevents the structure from imploding under the intense bore
pressures, and transfers heat to the motor housing, which is
cooled by the flow of fluids past the motor. For this reason,
the motor is always installed below the pump.
The pumps have limited ability to deal with solids such as
sand because of their high rotational speed and compactness
of size. If free gas is present, a gas separator is also employed
since the presence of gas in the pump will reduce the amount
of liquids pumped and could cause gas locking.
he ESP, by lowering the pressure in the wellbore,
significantly raises the amount of fluid produced
compared to a well’s natural drive. New varieties of ESPs
include a water/oil separator that allows the water to be
re-injected into the reservoir without the need to lift it to
the surface.
A downhole sensor can be coupled to the bottom of the
motor to provide an operator with additional information
on the performance of the well.
Drawbacks to ESPs
ESPs are complicated mechanisms that have limited
operational life. The pump can be damaged by solids or
debris so protective shrouds are placed over the fluid
intakes to prevent this from happening. Sand abrasion is
the biggest problem with ESPs because all the bearing
areas in the pump and intake are exposed to well-bore
fluids. Clearly, when abrasive materials enter the
production fluids, the bearing surfaces rapidly wear out
and a premature system failure occurs. Exotic bearing
materials and extra bearings are often used in wells that
produce sand.
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 17
18 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
As with all types of artificial lift, the reduced pressure in the
wellbore due to the operation of the pump can cause gas
contained in solution in the casing annulus to break out, so
the casing annular space must be vented to the flowline at
surface in order to maintain a fluid level above the pump
intake. The possibility of producing large volumes of free gas
through the pump can cause wear damage as well as
potential motor overheating, although this is minimized by
modern controls. Gas separators and other means are used
where free gas is present, and are effective in reducing
problems caused by gas in most cases.
Once a downhole component of an ESP system fails there
is little that can be done but to pull the entire ESP system
and replace it with new, repaired or tested components.
For lower volume applications (less than approximately
1,000 barrels per day) the high cost of ESPs compared to
other forms of artificial lift is a drawback. Similarly, if the lift
requirement is less than approximately 5,000 feet, PCP
pumps may be more economical. However, for high
volume, high lift applications, ESPs are usually the artificial
method of choice. This is the main reason ESPs are usually
only used to produce volumes that other forms of artificial
lift are not capable of providing, or similarly to lift fluids
from deep depths where this cannot be accomplished by
other forms of artificial lift.
Contract Market for ESPs
In general terms, there are three main types of common
contracts for delivering ESPs: (a) Performance Based
Contracts; (b) Fixed Term Contracts or Alliances, and (c),
Standard Contracts & Purchase Orders.
(A) PERFORMANCE BASED CONTRACTS
In the Middle East and other geographical areas, many oil
companies with a large number of wells often specify fixed
price, fixed duration, performance-based contracts with
one ESP supplier for a period lasting between two to five
years or longer. Although contract terms vary widely, a
number of features are common such as:
• Equipment is often leased (or services provided) by the
supplier at a fixed daily rate per well
• A target run time is set for each well, determined by the
conditions of the well and/or history
• There are penalties for short equipment run times and
bonuses for long equipment run times
• The ESP supplier replaces or repairs faulty equipment at
its own cost unless it is determined that the fault was not
caused by the supplier
• The ESP supplier operates the wells on a daily basis
Under this form of contract, the contractor not only
supplies and services the ESP equipment but also needs to
understand and be able to perform oilfield operations
because part of the services provided entail daily well
operations the contractor. In addition, in the case of leasing
the contractor has to finance the cost of the equipment out
of its daily fixed rate, and needs to demonstrate that it has
the financial solvency to complete the contract. A
performance bond or bank guarantee, which is usually 10%
of the estimated contract value, is almost always required.
A bid bond is also required at the time of a bid submission,
which is forfeited if the bidder does not accept the contract
or fails to provide a performance bond in the event of a
successful bid.
(B) FIXED TERM CONTRACT OR ALLIANCES
This type of contract is also used by customers having a
significant number of ESPs to operate and maintain. An
alliance is formed with an ESP product and service provider
to supply and test/repair ESPs and provide installation and
removal services for a fixed term (3-5 or 5-7 years for
example) at set prices. However, performance-based
contract terms are not included.
(C) STANDARD CONTRACTS AND PURCHASE
ORDERS
Customers with fewer wells such as in Iran, Egypt, Syria,
Iraq, and UAE, or in countries where ESPs have a longer
history such as Libya and Indonesia, normally purchase
ESP equipment directly from the manufacturer. Some
customers also prefer to buy various components from
different vendors. Repair work for these types of
customers is normally charged at a book rate for the
specific equipment component. The repair price is
approximately fifty percent of the list purchase price. The
type of purchase contract a particular customer prefers
varies according to numerous factors including: (1)
experience of customer using ESPs; (2) geographic
location of customer; (3) the degree of isolation of the
oilfield; (4) proximity to established oilfield/ESP service
centers, and (5) geopolitical factors.
The economic factors that dictate what artificial lift
equipment a customer will choose, and the type of
contract to be signed, varies widely as can be seen by the
example given below where two wells have similar
artificial lift costs but the amount of oil produced is
significantly different:
Well Liquids Water Cut bopd Revenue/day
prod b/d % ($75/bbl)
Well A 5000 5 4750 $356,250
Well B 5000 95 250 $18,750
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 18
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 19
S.W.O.T Analysis
➔ Good and experienced management
team with extensive knowledge in
Libya and the Middle East, and active
experience in Russia and Asia.
➔ More ESPs are needed to increase
production from existing wells.
➔ Possibility of becoming a motor and
pump manufacturer.
➔ Its core market in Libya and the Middle
East buoyant in its demand for artificial
lift.
➔ Strong oil service market.
Strengths
➔ Management unknown to the UK
investment community.
➔ Weak legal system and extensive
bureaucracy in some of the countries
where it operates.
➔ Main competitors form part of very
large oil services companies with
substantial financial muscle.
➔ Heavy reliance on joint ventures for
growth.
Weaknesses
Opportunities
➔ High oil prices expected to remain for
some time leading to higher oil
company expenditure, benefiting oil
services companies.
➔ ESP usage is expected to climb
significantly during the following years
in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi
Arabia, Iraq, and Iran.
➔ Many oil companies prefer dealing with
an ESP supplier not associated with the
Big Three.
➔ Competitors having problems meeting
demand for ESPs
Threats
➔ High oil prices lead to a decline in
world economic growth and hence a
fall in oil consumption, thus lowering
the need to increase production
substantially.
➔ Some of the large regional suppliers of
ESPs expand into COSCO’s traditional
markets.
➔ Political issues in the Middle East.
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 19
20 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
Growth EBITDA Net cash
Growth metrics % Profitability metrics % Balance sheet metrics
EPS CAGR 05-09e -278.5 ROCE2008e 106.6 Gearing 2008e 109.0
EPS CAGR 07-09e 18.7 Avg ROCE 05-09e 51.6 Interest cover 2008e 205.1
EBITDA CAGR 05-09e -310.7 ROE 2008e 41.7 Stock turn 2008e 54.8
EBITDA CAGR 07-09e 15.1 Gross margin 2008e 48.0 Debtor days 2008e 76.7
Sales CAGR 05-09e 60.6 Operating margin 2008e 45.5 Creditor days 2008e 127.8
Sales CAGR 07-09e 14.2 Gross mgm/Op margin 1.1
Principal shareholders % Management team
Mark Dorin 25.8 Mark Dorin President
Andrew Male 8.6 Andrew Male Director
Andrew Walker 1.6 Andrew Walker Director
Cooperative Shareholders 26.7
Forthcoming announcements/catalysts Date Company details
AGM - 9760 60th Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6E OC5
Trading update - Phone +1 780 430 0840
Interim results - Fax +1 780 430 0367
Full results - www.COSCOesp.com
This research report has been prepared by VSA
Resources Limited, for which it has been paid a fee, as
corporate finance advisors and arrangers to COSCO ESP
Ltd and is solely for and directed at persons who have
professional experience in matters relating to
investments and who are Investment Professionals, as
specified in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and
Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This
research report is exempt from the general restriction on
the communication of invitations or inducements to
enter into investment activity and has therefore not been
approved by an authorised person, as would otherwise
be required by Section 21 of the Financial Services and
Markets Act 2000 (the "Act"). Persons who do not fall
within the above category should return this research
report to VSA Resources Limited, 43 London Wall,
London, EC2M 5TF, immediately. This research report is
not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or
indirectly, to any other class of persons. It is being
supplied to you solely for your information and may not
be reproduced, forwarded to any other person or
published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without
out prior written consent.
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed
constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to
buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other
derivatives related to such securities.
The information and opinions contained in this research
report have been compiled or arrived at by VSA
Resources Limited (the "Company") from sources
believed to be reliable and in good faith but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made
as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All
opinions and estimates contained in the research report
constitute the Company's judgements as of the date of
the report and are subject to change without notice. The
information contained in the report is published for the
assistance of those persons defined above but it is not to
be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution
for the exercise of the judgement of any reader.
The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for any
direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the
information contained herein. The company does not
make any representation to any reader of the research
report as to the suitability of any investment made in
connection with this report and readers must satisfy
themselves of the suitability in light of their own
understanding, appraisal of risk and reward, objectives,
experience and financial and operational resources.
The value of any companies or securities referred to in
this research report may rise as well as fall and sums
recovered may be less than those originally invested. Any
references to past performance of any companies or
investments referred to in this research report are not
indicative of their future performance.
The Company and/or its directors and/or employees may
have long or short positions in the securities mentioned
herein, or in options, futures and other derivative
instruments based on these securities or commodities.
Not all of the products recommended or discussed in this
research report may be regulated by the Financial
Services and Markets Act 2000 and the rules made for the
protection of investors by that Act will not apply to them.
If you are in any doubt about the investment to which this
report relates, you should consult a person authorised
and regulated by the Financial Services Authority who
specialises in advising on securities of the kind described.
The Company does and seeks to do business with the
companies covered in its research reports. Thus,
investors should be aware that the Company may have a
conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this
report. The analyst who prepared this report has not and
will not receive any compensation for providing a specific
recommendation or view in this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
The information in this report is not intended to be
published or made available to any person in the United
Sates of America (USA) or Canada or any jurisdiction
where to do so would result in contravention of any
applicable laws or regulations. Accordingly, if it is
prohibited to make such information available in your
jurisdiction or to you (by reason of your nationality,
residence or otherwise) it is not directed at you.
VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the
Financial Services Authority
IMPORTANT NOTICE
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
-2000
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0
5
10
15
20
25
2005 2006 2007 2008
US$m
2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008
US$m US$m
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 20
VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 21
NOTES
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 21
22 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH
NOTES
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 22
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 23
For further information please contact
COSCO ESP Ltd
9760 60th Avenue
Edmonton
Alberta
Canada T6E 0C5
Tel +1 780 430 0840
Fax +1 780 430 0367
www.COSCOesp.com
VSA Resources
43 London Wall
London EC2M 5TF
Telephone +44 (0)20 7628 3989
Fax: +44 (0)20 7920 0563
bmcbeth@vsaresources.com
www.vsaresources.com
© VSA Resources Ltd
VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority and
is a member of the London Stock Exchange
Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 24

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Cosco Research Note 20.10.2006

  • 1. RESEARCH REPORT COSCO ESP Ltd October 2006 Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 1
  • 2. VSA Resources is committed to providing objective research. This report has been commissioned by COSCO ESP Ltd and is therefore unlikely to be perceived as objective. Your attention is further drawn to the disclaimer at the end of this research report. Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 2
  • 3. Investment Summary: A bright prospect beckons COSCO ESP Ltd is an Irish based holding company that for the last 20 years has provided high quality Electric Submersible Pump (ESP) equipment, including surface and control systems it manufactures and downhole components it distributes. Its traditional markets are North Africa, the Middle East, and the Russian Federation. Advantage over competitors COSCO has a distinct advantage over some of its competitors because it can supply its own control products. Consequently, its products give better protection to the system equipment, while capturing more operational data. COSCO also has a nationality advantage in certain countries where customers prefer to have a supplier from a perceived neutral country. Future prospects COSCO hopes to become a manufacturer and distributor par excellence of ESP equipment and systems, and establish regional test/repair/service centres at a time when the market for ESP systems and ancillary services is expected to grow significantly to meet the world’s increased demand for oil. It is likely that COSCO will establish a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China to supply new products and replacement components more efficiently to customers. Joint ventures with a Saudi Arabian and another Middle Eastern partner are expected soon. Financials We estimate that COSCO could increase its revenue stream from US$1.9m in 2005 to just under US$4m this year if its current expansion plans are successful. This is likely to mean that net earnings would rise significantly from a loss of US$63,000 to a profit of US$186,000 in 2006 increasing to US$3.6m in 2008. Pre-IPO funding The Company is seeking US$6.5m to establish a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China, expand its submersible pump and repair business, increase its market presence, especially in Africa and the Middle East, and expand its working capital base in order to finance existing and larger contracts. Valuation – significant upside In arriving at a value for COSCO we have used a number of tools, such as prospective 2007 earnings and cash flow multiples. On this basis, we value COSCO at between $16.9m and $31.5m, giving an average of $24.2m. Pre-IPO Funding COSCO ESP Ltd Price n/a Market Cap €m n/a SHARE DETAILS CODE n/a LISTING n/a SECTOR n/a SHARES IN ISSUE 38,064,426 PRICE 52 weeks High Low n/a n/a BALANCE SHEET Debt/Equity (%) 0 NAV (US$m) 24.2 (Net borrowings)/Cash (US$m) 0.8 BUSINESS GEOGRAPHY (based on revenues)) CANADA LIBYA MIDDLE EAST OTHER 0% 34.5% 54.3% 11.2% ANALYST Brian McBeth 020 7628 3989 bmcbeth@vsaresources.com SALES Neil Pidgeon 020 7628 3989 npidgeon@vsaresources.com COSCO is a holding company that manufactures and distributes high quality Electric Submersible Pumps, together with surface control systems and components. The Company is based in Edmonton (Canada), and has an operating unit in Malta serving its Libyan clients. Year end Revenue PBT EPS DPS PE Yield 31 Mar (US$000s) (US$000s) (US$) (US$) (x) (%) FRS3 FRS3 2006a 1899 -228 (0.006) 0 0 0 2007e 3900 254 0.007 0 0 0 2008e 13600 2471 0.065 0 0 0 2009e 20280 4132 0.109 0 0 0 Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 3
  • 4. 4 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Investment summary: A new kid on the block Strategy is to build on Company’s unique experience COSCO ESP Ltd (COSCO) is an Irish based holding company that for the last 20 years has manufactured and distributed high quality Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs), together with surface control systems and components. COSCO manufactures ESP penetrators, switchgear, downhole sensors, ESP controllers and dataloggers, and auxiliary products. COSCO formerly distributed Temtex pumps and motors in Libya, and was a reseller in other markets. Currently such components are obtained from other third party sources. Its traditional markets are in North Africa, the Middle East, and the Russian Federation. COSCO also manufactures the Vortex ESP controller under an exclusive license for the Libyan market. This controller was developed by COSCO’s President Mark Dorin and others, and sold to Centrilift in 1991. From 1998 to 2000, COSCO was the majority owner of Control Telecom Inc., and worldwide distributor for the CTI ESP controller until it sold its interest in the company to Wood Group ESP. COSCO has therefore been involved in the development and marketing of two of the main three control systems used in the industry. COSCO is currently developing a new advanced controller/datalogger. COSCO’s combined product line is possibly equal or better both in range and quality than that of some its major American and British competitors. The Company's advanced technology control and monitoring equipment allows improved management of oil production from new and existing oil reservoirs and increased protection of ESP equipment. Valuation: conservative value with significant upside In arriving at a value for COSCO we have used a number of tools such as prospective 2007 earnings and cash flow multiples. It is clear that owing to its size and business, COSCO is much smaller than its nearest competitors such as Schlumberger and Baker Hughes. In order to reflect this disparity in size we have discounted the above multiples by 25%. COSCO can then be valued at between US$16.9m and US$31.5m, giving an average of US$24.2m Sensitivities: Challenges of operating in emerging markets The Company faces four main challenges: 1. To establish COSCO as a first class service company in the area of ESPs by using its own technology, which is competitively priced, technologically more advanced, and with field proven equipment and systems that generate greater field operational data for optimising production and maintaining oilfield production while minimising production costs. 2. To establish a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China. 3. To become a manufacturer and distributor par excellence of ESP equipment and systems, with regional test/repair/service centres in Libya, Saudi Arabia, and the Middle East. 4. To maintain or increase its market share in its main markets, and to expand in other areas of the world such as the Russian Federation and South America. Financials: positive cash flow in 2007 The buoyancy of the oil market is expected to benefit COSCO considerably this year and for the foreseeable future. It should be noted that COSCO’s business is not reliant on high oil prices. In 2005, COSCO reported a net loss of US$63,000 for the year ending 31 March 2006. We expect turnover this year to reach US$3.9m because of increased activity in the Company’s main markets. Turnover is expected to continue to rise in subsequent years reaching US$20m in 2008, driven by its establishment of a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China and by its joint venture in Saudi Arabia. Gross margins are expected to increase owing to lower costs realized from China manufacturing and a squeeze on the Company’s suppliers. If our projections are correct, then we would expect the Company to generate a large amount of cash over the next 24 months, which will serve it well in its capital expenditure programme and possibly in paying a maiden dividend. We expect net earnings to rise significantly from a loss of US$63,000 in 2005 to a profit of US$4.1m in 2008. Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 4
  • 5. History COSCO manufactures and/or distributes high quality Electric Submersible Pump (ESP) systems, together with surface control systems and components. In 1996, COSCO added downhole pumps and motors to its product line, and since then has been a complete ESP supplier. Over the last 20 years, the company has supplied a quality product line that has increased the productivity of oil wells while reducing costs. The Company is registered in Ireland, with its headquarters in Edmonton (Canada), and an operating facility in Malta serving its Libyan clients. Its main markets are Libya, the Middle East and the Russian Federation. COSCO has a distinct advantage over some of its competitors because it can supply its own control products. Consequently, its products give better protection to the system equipment while capturing more operational data. COSCO’s combined product line is possibly equal or better in range and quality than its competitors, and the Company has a nationality advantage in certain countries where customers prefer to have a supplier from a perceived neutral country. Background When there is insufficient natural pressure to bring the crude oil to the surface, artificial lift is used to increase hydrocarbon production. Such a method of assisting oil production is increasingly used in mature oilfields that have declining productivity, and in newer oil fields where improvements in oilfield management practice become more widely deployed and more rapidly adopted. (See Appendix A for a fuller explanation). COSCO supplies Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs), the fastest growing section of the artificial lift market for hydrocarbons. Electric Submersible Pumps (ESPs) The world ESP market has steadily grown and is over $1.3 billion per annum, with continued growth expected. ESP sales are half the artificial lift market, that is, sales of ESPs exceed all other types of artificial lift combined. ESPs require very little space and can be installed in highly deviated wells, making them ideal for offshore operations. ESPs are also used where there is insufficient reservoir pressure to lift the oil. ESPs are best installed where there is large production and insufficient reservoir pressure to lift the crude oil. The intensity of ESPs in the industry is seen in the following table. Increasing Intensity of ESP Use Year Industry World Oil Intensity Ratio Revenues (US$m)* Production (m b/d) 1990 $330 66.7 5.0 2001 $985 77.0 12.8 2005 $1300 81.4 16.0 *COSCO estimates. Split 50-50 between equipment/ supplies & testing/repair/service. Source: COSCO It is estimated that there are between 80,000 and 100,000 oil well ESP systems installed worldwide, with the Russian Federation and the FSU accounting for 50% of the total installed units. Russia relies heavily on ESPs but the systems are generally smaller and less sophisticated, with the Russian market accounting for only 20% by value of the total ESP world market. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 5 A new kid on the block World distribution of ESPs Region Russia/FSU USA/Canada Indonesia UKCS Africa Middle East Rest of SE Rest of World ESP Units Installed 50000 15000 4000 1000 2200 2100 5000 5000 Oil Prod 2001 mb/d 8.8 11.1 1.1 7.3 9.5 23.9 5.4 9.1 Potential Resources 386.5 405.7 30 72.1 285.2 1248.5 100 402 ESP Growth Prospects Positive Static Static Static Strong Strong Strong Strong ESP Market Size (US$m) $300 $310 $220 $50 $150 $220 $30 $60 COSCO Priority (high=5) 4 1 3 0 5 4 1 3 Source: COSCO Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 5
  • 6. 6 With any ESP completion, operators are interested in extending the life of the pump. There are major benefits in doing this because it reduces the down time of the pump, thus increasing production over time as well as reducing the cost of replacing worn or damaged pumps. It is estimated that ESPs can lift between 200 to 100,000 barrels of liquids at a maximum depth of 12,000 feet, and are routinely found in reservoirs under water flood as well as in offshore wells. ESPs have a working life of a few weeks to 10 years. The average worldwide run life is between 8 – 15 months. In its most basic form, the ESP completion is a pump powered by a coupled electric motor suspended downhole on a tubing string. The pump receives power from a cable secured to the exterior of the tubing, and power is supplied by three-phase transformers. A switchboard provides instrumentation for control and motor protection. A junction box acts as a vent to prevent gas migrating up the power cable and reaching the electrical switchboard. The electric motor at the bottom of the tubing string is isolated from well fluids by means of special seal section (protector), which also equalizes the pressure in the motor with the well bore pressure, and a motor driven pump above it, which is normally a multistage centrifugal pump. If free gas is present, a gas separator is also used. Downhole instrumentation may be used to monitor the performance of the well and protect the motor from damage by overheating. A variable speed drive may be used instead of a switchboard, allowing the motor speed (rpm) to be varied, thereby providing a wider volume range to be produced as opposed to operating the unit at a fixed speed. The discharge rate of the pump is a function of the differential pressure across the pump system, which is determined by the speed at which the pump motor rotates, the pump impeller design, and the viscosity of the fluid. The lift that the pump provides is determined by the number of stages employed. The wellhead needs special provisions to bring the ESP power cable into the wellbore and provide sealing. A service rig is used to pull and run the downhole equipment. An ESP system has to be engineered before it can be installed, with the sub-surface equipment meeting the particular specifications of a well: One of many possible pump types is chosen to provide the volume required, the number of pump stages is determined to provide the required lift, and the motor size is dependent on the pump type and number of stages. Cable conductor size is dependent on the motor size and operating parameters. Quality well data is required to properly size an ESP unit and is often unavailable. Numerous factors affect the run life of an ESP such as: (1) proper design; (2) power supply quality; (3) downhole conditions (temperature, presence of gas, sand or corrosive fluids); (4) using effective controls that properly protect the installation; (5) operational practices; and (6) operating the unit within the optimal flow rate range. Pulling the ESP from the well is often more costly than the ESP equipment itself. Oil well ESP equipment is highly specialised and is principally obtained from the primary ESP suppliers or their regional distributors. Those having a test/repair facility/ service in reasonably close proximity to the oil field where the ESP is used may have an advantage over other suppliers. The components of an ESP system are serviced, repaired, modified, replaced and upgraded many times over the production life of a well. The cost of a complete ESP system can vary from less than $100,000 US dollars to over $500,000 US dollars per well (ESP components only). Downhole Sensors Downhole sensors are sometimes used to monitor and log information used for reservoir management and ESP monitoring and control. Sensors may be attached to common brands of ESP motors if an upper tandem or centre tandem motor is employed. Data is transmitted to the surface via a digital signal that travels along the main ESP power cable, and a surface choke is used to isolate the motor voltage before the signal is interpreted by the surface interface panel. Various types of downhole sensors exist in terms of complexity, reliability and price, and whether or not, and how, data is electronically stored in memory. ESPs & COSCO COSCO supplies ESPs that increase fluid, and hence hydrocarbon, production when there is insufficient natural pressure to bring crude oil to the surface or when there is a need to increase production. It also manufactures and distributes ESP surface control systems and accessories, including motor controls, switchgear, Variable Speed Drives, wellhead equipment and connector (electric feed-through) systems, transformers, downhole sensors and monitoring equipment, and motor lead flat extension cables. COSCO manufactures the Vortex ESP controller under an exclusive license for the Libyan market. Developed by COSCO’s President Mark Dorin and others, it was sold to Centrilift in 1991. More oil well ESPs are controlled by Vortex equipment than any other ESP control device. COSCO was previously the majority shareholder of Control Telecom Inc., and worldwide distributor for the CTI ESP controller. It sold its interest in the company to Wood COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 6
  • 7. Group ESP. As a result, COSCO has been largely responsible for much of the control innovation in the ESP industry and has a successful track record of introducing new products to the industry. COSCO is currently developing a new ESP control system that should become the leading control device when it goes live. COSCO’s advanced monitoring equipment allows customers to maximize production, extend the equipment’s life, and reduce down time and operational costs while optimising well performance and data gathering. COSCO’s subsidiary, COSCO Pump Company Limited is a full service ESP supplier with a primary focus on Middle East markets, headquartered in Sliema, Malta. COSCO’s product line and services provided are given below. International Market There are 11 primary suppliers of ESP systems that control 95 % of the world market, of which five, viz, Schlumberger (Reda), Baker-Hughes (Centrilift), Wood Group (Wood Group ESP), Weatherford and COSCO, are active internationally. The other six primary suppliers (Russian (3), Chinese (2) and Saudi (1)) mainly confine their activities to their domestic markets. COSCO can compete in product, technology and price against its large competitors but it clearly needs to increase its capacity to compete for after-market service, and establish a stronger profile in the market. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 7 Motor Controllers Variable Speed Drive Switchboard Penetrator ESP Wellhead with Penetrator ESP Transformer Discharge Head Pump Gas Separator Protector Cable Motor Down Hole Sensor Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 7
  • 8. Future Growth In order to achieve its targets, COSCO intends to establish a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China at a cost of around $5m. The addition of pump and motor manufacturing will mean that COSCO will have an internally-sourced product line similar to that of any other ESP competitor. COSCO has acquired the Intellectual Property required to manufacture “Reda Type” ESP pumps, motors, protectors, gas separators, and associated equipment to be manufactured in the Tianjin/Baodi district of Tianjin City, some 70 kilometres away from Beijing, with a population of 10 million people. In order to attract foreign investment, the local government will grant tax breaks to companies with a capital of $1m or over. As a result, when COSCO establishes the motor and pump facility, it will enjoy a two year income tax holiday and after that will only pay 50% of normal corporation tax over the next six years. There are other possible benefits to manufacturing in China for COSCO. The majority owned Chinese government oil companies such as CNPC and Sinopec are aggressively acquiring oil fields worldwide that utilize ESPs. It is anticipated that the Chinese government will give preference to Chinese ESP manufacturers such as COSCO because none of the domestic suppliers have international service capabilities. In addition, COSCO is negotiating to purchase a test/repair facility in Libya. It is also in discussions with two possible partners in Saudi Arabia and Iran to set-up two joint ventures to provide service/test/repair facilities. The joint venture partners would provide factory space and purchase a minimum of between $3.5m – 6m in shop repair equipment and inventory. Each joint venture will distribute COSCO equipment, perform repairs and provide service within a territory. The ability of having service/test/repair facilities means that COSCO will benefit from the increased business of servicing and repairing its own equipment as well as servicing the equipment of other manufacturers. It is also clear that by expanding its service and distribution channels that COSCO will gain market share and manufacturing scale, allowing the Company to expand into new markets. Management and Operational Centres The Company’s main operational and manufacturing centre is at Edmonton, Canada. It also has a sales and engineering office in Malta servicing the North African market, with local agents active in Saudi, Oman/UAE, Sudan/Egypt and Iran. Directors & Senior Management The Directors and Senior Management of the Company are given below: Mark Dorin President Co-founder of COSCO and president since 1998. He has a 30 year background in oilfield production and ESPs, with 20 years in the ESP industry, starting two successful ESP industry companies. Andrew Male Director, VP Corporate Finance Corporate Finance background, mainly in raising capital and corporate governance. Andrew Walker Director, Chief Counsel Securities Lawer. Legal Director on many boards of listed companies. Geoffrey Warr Manager, COSCO Pump Company Malta Has a degree in engineering, and an MBA. Over 15 years experience in the ESP industry, primarily in Libya. 8 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 8
  • 9. Sensitivities: four main challenges The Company faces four main challenges: 1. To establish COSCO as a first class service company in the area of ESPs. The Company expects to achieve this by using its own technology, which is competitively priced, technologically more advanced, and with field proven equipment and systems designed to generate greater field operational data for optimising and maintaining oilfield production while minimising production costs. 2. To establish a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China. 3. To become a manufacturer and distributor par excellence of ESP equipment and systems, with regional test/repair/service centres in Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Iran. 4. To maintain or increase its market share in its main markets in North Africa and the Middle East, and to expand in other areas of the world such as the Russian Federation and South America. Financials At the moment, COSCO manufactures at its Edmonton base around 10%-15% of the total value of an ESP system, with the rest purchased from third parties. The largest component by value in an ESP system is the pump assembly, power cable, and transformers, representing approximately 60 % of the total cost of supplying the ESP system. When COSCO acquires its motor and pump manufacturing facilities in China, it will be able to capture a larger share of the value added by these two components in the ESP system. It is estimated that gross margins for a variable speed ESP is around 40 %, whereas for a fixed speed system it is higher at between 50%-55%. The buoyancy of the oil market is expected to benefit COSCO considerably this year and for the foreseeable future. In 2005, COSCO reported net loss of US$63,000 but we expect turnover this year to reach US$3.9m because of increased activity in the Company’s main markets. Turnover is expected to continue to rise reaching US$13.6m in 2007 and US$20.2m in 2008, driven by its new motor and pump manufacturing facility in China and by its joint venture in Saudi Arabia. (See table below) The rapid increase in turnover is based on the following assumptions: • Establishment of motor and pump manufacturing facilities in China. • In Libya, COSCO will own 100 % of its repairs-test- servicing facility. • For the rest of North Africa, the large increase in revenue will be mainly from Egypt. • Joint ventures established in Saudi Arabia, and Iran. • COSCO establishes a foothold in Indonesia, Venezuela and Ecuador. Gross margins are expected to increase owing to a rise in turnover as well as a squeeze on the Company’s suppliers. If our projections are correct, then we would expect the Company to generate a large amount of cash over the next 24 months, which will serve it well in its capital expenditure programme and in paying a maiden dividend. Our forecast together with the balance sheet and cash flow projections are given below. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 9 Estimated Revenue Projections ( US$m) New Equipment Service Revenues Surface Downhole Other Testing Repair Field Equipment ESP Equip supplies Service Service Service TOTAL 2006e 1.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 3.9 2007e 4.5 5.2 2.0 0.5 0.8 0.6 13.6 2008e 8.2 8.3 2.9 0.8 1.1 1.0 20.3 Source: VSA Resources Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 9
  • 10. Profit & Loss, Balance Sheet & Cash Flow Projections Year-end March 31 US$000s US$000s US$000s US$000s 2006a 2007e 2008e 2009e Revenue 1,899.00 3,900.00 13,600.00 20,280.00 Cost of sales (963.00) (2,028.00) (7,072.00) (10,550.00) Gross profit 936.00 1,872.00 6,528.00 9,730.00 EBITDA (210.00) 1,772.00 5,728.00 8,730.00 Depreciation (17.00) (50.00) (400.00) (500.00) Operating profit (before GW and except.) (193) 1,822 6,128 9,230 Goodwill amortisation 0 0 0 0 % of intangile assets 0% 0% 0% 0% Exceptionals 0.00 0 0 0 Administrative expenses (1,129.00) (1,500.00) (3,000.00) (4,000.00) Operating profit/(loss) (243.00) 322.00 3,128.00 5,230.00 Net interest (32) (18) (35) (45) Other 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Exceptionals 165.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Profit before tax (norm) (228.00) 322.00 3,128.00 5,230.00 Profit before tax (FRS 3) (63.00) 254.00 2,693.00 4,685.00 Tax 0.00 (67.60) (656.80) (1,098.30) Profit after tax (norm) (228.00) 254.40 2,471.20 4,131.70 Profit after tax (FRS3) (63.00) 186.40 2,036.20 3,586.70 Minority interest 0 0 0 0 Net income (norm) (228.00) 254.40 2,471.20 4,131.70 Net income (FRS 3) (63.00) 186.40 2,036.20 3,586.70 Average number of shares outstanding (m) 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 Share options and others outstanding (m) 38.0 38.0 38.0 38.0 EPS - normalised (US$) (0.006) 0.007 0.065 0.109 EPS - normalised and fully diluted (US$) (0.006) 0.007 0.065 0.109 EPS - FRS 3 (US$) (0.002) 0.005 0.054 0.094 Dividend (US$) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 10
  • 11. Balance Sheet Year-end March 31 Fixed assets 356.00 1,250.00 6,200.00 8,700.00 Intangible assets 300.00 800.00 1,200.00 1,200.00 Tangible assets 56.00 450.00 5,000.00 7,500.00 Investment in associates & JV's 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Current assets 814.00 1,989.00 6,936.00 10,342.80 Stocks 196.00 585.00 2,040.00 3,042.00 Debtors 306.00 819.00 2,856.00 4,258.80 Cash 312.00 585.00 2,040.00 3,042.00 Other 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Current liabilities (1,091.00) (1,950.00) (6,120.00) (9,126.00) Creditors (868.00) (1,560.00) (4,760.00) (7,098.00) Tax and social security 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Short term borrowings (223.00) (390.00) (1,360.00) (2,028.00) Long term liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Long term borrowings 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other long term liabilities 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Net assets 79.00 1,289.00 7,016.00 9,916.80 Minority interest 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Shareholders equity 79.00 1,289.00 7,016.00 9,916.80 Year-end no of shares m 38.04 38.04 38.04 38.04 Opening shareholders equity 94.50 79.00 1,289.00 7,016.00 Net debt/(cash) (89.00) (195.00) (680.00) (1,014.00) Net current assets (277.00) 39.00 816.00 1,216.80 Cash Flow Operating Cash Flow (299.00) 1,772.00 5,728.00 8,730.00 Net Interest (32.00) (18.00) (35.00) (45.00) Tax 0.00 (67.60) (656.80) (1,098.30) Capex (11.00) (500.00) (750.00) (750.00) (Acquisitions)/disposals 0.00 (2,000.00) (2,500.00) 0.00 Equity financing 583.00 6,500.00 2,500.00 2,500.00 Dividends 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other (166.00) 250.00 250.00 250.00 Net Cash Flow 75.00 5,936.40 4,536.20 9,586.70 Opening net debt/(cash) (174.00) (249.00) (6,185.40) (10,721.60) HP finance leases initiated 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Other 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Closing net debt/(cash) (249.00) (6,185.40) (10,721.60) (20,308.30) VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP PLC PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 11 Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 11
  • 12. Pre-IPO Funding and Use of New Funds In order to capitalise on the strong ESP market, COSCO wants to acquire a motor and pump manufacturing facility in China and expand its submersible pump and repair business as well as increasing its geographical reach, especially in the Middle East. Up to now, COSCO has funded its expansion from internal cash flow and short- term loans from existing investors. Most contracts in the ESP industry are large, placing a company without financial muscle at a disadvantage. Consequently, if a company does not have sufficient financial resources at its disposal it is unable to win such contracts. COSCO finds itself in such a position and can only bid on smaller contracts that it can finance. COSCO has therefore decided to seek Pre-IPO funds of US$6.5m that will allow it to grow in this particular market segment. The increase in funds will allow COSCO to bid and win larger projects and establish its own downhole manufacturing facility. Many companies with performance based contracts (See Appendix A) will only deal with a downhole manufacturer. The manufacturing facility means that COSCO, apart from increasing its profit margins on downhole equipment, will be able to bid on ESPs projects worldwide instead of only in Libya. Finally, COSCO will increase its operating margin significantly with its own repair/test/service facilities. The use of the funds will be distributed as follows: Use of Funds (US$) US$ Research & Development $250,000 Staffing & Training $800,000 Working Capital for Jobs Funding/Work in Progress $1,000,000 Manufacturing Facility and Intellectual Property $3,450,000 Trial Units $550,000 Costs and Expenses $450,000 TOTAL $6,500,000 Source: COSCO Dividend Policy COSCO does not expect to pay a dividend in the near future. We expect that such a policy will be reviewed in 2008 when the Company will be in a stronger position to pay a dividend if the situation warrants it. Major Shareholders The major shareholders are given below: COSCO: Major Shareholders Name % Mark Dorin 25.8 Andrew Male 8.6 Andrew Walker 1.6 Cooperative Shareholders 26.7 Valuation In arriving at a value for COSCO we have used a number of tools that are appropriate for the sector in which it operates. We have used prospective 2007 earnings and cash flow multiples of the oil service companies that make up the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index 11.1x and 9.4x respectively. It is clear that owing to its size and business, COSCO is much smaller than the companies in the Philadelphia Oil Service Sector index. In order to reflect this disparity in size, in our valuation we have discounted the above multiples by 25 %. COSCO can then be valued at between US$16.9m and US$31.5m as we can see in the table given below. COSCO Valuation Multiple US$m Prospective 2007 P/E 8.3x 16.9 Prospective 2007 Cash-Flow 7.0x 31.5 Average of the above two 24.2 Source: VSA Resources Comparative Valuation There are no listed companies that are directly comparable with COSCO’s area of expertise. As can be seen in the table below, the ESP divisions of the 10 largest suppliers are extremely small compared with the companies’ total turnover. Robbins & Myers, Inc., a leading manufacturer of Progressive Cavity Pumps (PCPs) as well as simple wellhead equipment for low pressure applications, is perhaps the closest company to compare COSCO. It has a market capitalisation of US$417.5m , with a 2007 PER of 20.5x and a PCF multiple of 13.6. 12 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 12
  • 13. Primary ESP systems suppliers Company ESP Sales 2005 Parent Parent’s Revenue ESPs sales as a Area of Operation US$m 2005 US$bn % of total sales Centrilift 350 Baker-Hughes 5.8 6.0 NA, Indonesia, UKCS, Latam, Middle East, Africa Reda 300 Schlumberger 10.1 2.9 NA, Indonesia, UKCS, Latam, Middle East, Africa Wood Group 180 John Wood 2.0 9.0 NA, Indonesia, UKCS, Latam, Middle East, Africa COSCO Pump 1.9 COSCO n/a 100 Libya, ME, Russian Federation Novomet 110 100 Russian Federation Alnas 60 Yukos 11.4 0.5 Russian Federation ShengLi 60 SinoPec 41.0 0.1 China DaQing 50 China Nat Pet Co 29.5 2.1 China Al Khorayef 30 Al Khorayef Group 2.0** - Saudi Arabia Borets 20 Eastlink Lanker* - - Russian Federation Weatherford 20 Weatherford 2.3 0.9 NA, Indonesia, UKCS, Latam, Middle East, Africa Source: COSCO * Major shareholder ** Estimate VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 13 Introduction It is estimated that more than 90% of oil wells need some form of artificial lift. The rate at which an oil well produces oil and gas depends on the permeability (the rate of flow of a liquid or gas through a porous material) and porosity (the space between the rocks) of the producing horizon and the natural pressure available that drives the hydrocarbons towards the borehole. The casing of the borehole seals the well from any fresh water intervals through which it passes to prevent crude oil contaminating the water. A small- diameter tubing string carries the oil and gas from the reservoir to the surface and is centered in the wellbore. The reservoirs are usually at a higher pressure than the wellbore because of underground forces, with either a water or gas drive forcing the hydrocarbons to the surface. A water drive reservoir is linked to an active water aquifer that provides the drive mechanism, whereas a gas drive reservoir gets its energy from gas expanding from either a gas cap or from gas breaking out of solution. Depending on the conditions of the reservoir, the underground pressure at the start of a APPENDIX A – Notes on Artificial Lift Water Drive Reservoir Gas Drive Reservoir Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 13
  • 14. 14 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH well’s productive life will often push the hydrocarbons to the surface for many years. However, when the pressure differential is insufficient for the oil to flow naturally, then some method of lifting the liquids artificially, such as ESPs, needs to be installed to bring the oil to the surface. Artificial Lift Most wells have a predictable production rate known as a decline curve, reaching peak production relatively soon after first coming on-stream followed by a long, slow decline. It is the condition of the reservoir that determines the shape and the length of this decline curve, with some wells producing for more than 50 years while others stop producing in economic quantities after a few years. A variety of techniques are can be used to curtail a well’s decline curve. A workover can be performed, which involves cleaning out the wellbore to help oil or gas move more easily to the surface. The reservoir rock may be fractured or treated with acid around the bottom of the wellbore in order to increase the channels through which the oil and gas moves to the producing well. Water can be injected into the reservoir to maintain pressure. Such a method pushes the oil out of the pores in the rock towards the producing well and maintains reservoir pressure. In more advanced cases, enhanced oil recovery (EOR) techniques are used, such as injecting into the reservoir steam, nitrogen, carbon dioxide or a surfactant to remove more oil from the pore spaces and increase production. Most oil wells produce a combination of oil, gas, and water that is separated at the surface. Initially, most of the liquids from the reservoir may be oil and gas with small amounts of water but with time water increases significantly. Increased water production inevitably leads to the need for artificial lift because the pressure formed by the column of oil/water mixture in the wellbore may exceed the reservoir pressure. Any system that adds energy to the fluid column in a wellbore is defined as artificial lift. A number of different operating principles are applied to generate artificial lift, including rod pumping, gas lift and electrical submersible pumps. The five different types of artificial lift technologies, are detailed below. 1. Electric submersible pumps 2. Beam/Sucker rod pumps 3. Progressive Cavity pumps 4. Subsurface Hydraulic pumps 5. Gas lift The use of a particular technology depends on the characteristics of the reservoir, the individual oil well parameters, and capital expenditure. In the 1990s, the largest market for artificial lift was for Beam/Sucker Rods (nodding donkeys) as can be seen from the table given below. Since then, ESPs have grown significantly, and currently account for over 50 % of the total market for artificial lift. Annual Sales US$m Pump Type 1990 % 2001 % Electric Submersible 330 28 985 52 Beam/Sucker Rod 496 43 546 29 Progressing Cavity 16 1 220 11 Subsurface Hydraulic 140 12 45 2 Gas Lift 180 16 110 6 Total 1162 100 1906 100 Source: Baker Hughes Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 14
  • 15. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 15 Comparisons between Artificial Lift Types Artificial Lift Type General Comment Comment Beam Pumping/ A positive displacement pump is inserted Simple to operate and tends to be Sucker Rod Pumps or set in the tubing near the bottom of the cheaper to use than other methods, (Rod Lift) well. The pump plunger is connected to but are less efficient and have lower the surface by a long rod string and pumping capacity. operated by a beam unit at surface. Progressive Cavity This consists of a surface drive, drive Low capital investment, more reliable Pumps (PCP) string and downhole progressive cavity and better at dealing with solids such pump. In some instances, an electric as sand and scale deposits. Lift submersible motor is used (with a gear capacity limited and can not handle reducer) instead of rods and surface much gas. Good for heavy oil production. drive. Subsurface Hydraulic This consists of a surface power fluid Has high initial capital costs and complex Pumps system, a prime mover, a surface pump to operate. Good for multiple wells on that pumps the power fluid, and a one surface pad location because one downhole jet or reciprocating /piston surface power fluid package can provide pump. Power fluid is mixed with produced power fluid to several wells. Any fluid and separated at surface with the malfunction of surface equipment power fluid re-used. means that all wells will not produce. Electric Submersible ESP System has an electric motor and High volume and depth (lift) capacity; Pumps centrifugal pump unit suspended high efficiency over 1,000 bopd; low on a tubing production string and maintenance; minimal surface equipment connected back to the surface control requirements; high resistance to mechanism and transformer via an corrosive downhole environments; electric power cable. Generally used adaptable to gas, sand causes problems. where high volume fluid production Used in both deviated and vertical wells. is required. Gas lift Compressed gas is injected through Essentially, the liquids are lightened gas lift mandrels and valves into the by the gas which allows the production string, lowering the hydrostatic reservoir pressure to force the pressure in the production string to fluids to surface. A source of reestablish the required pressure gas, and compression equipment differential between the reservoir and is required for gas lift. High wellbore, thus causing the formation capital costs. fluids to flow to the surface. The advantages and disadvantages of the various systems of artificial lift pumps are given below. Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 15
  • 16. 16 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH The use of ESPs in the Middle East, where there was previously little artificial lift used owing to wells flowing naturally for decades, is largely responsible for the surge in ESP installations in recent years. ESPs are usually the only practical means of artificial lift in the Middle East due to the ability of most wells to produce volumes that other forms of artificial lift cannot provide economically. ESP use will only become greater, and the pace of implementation should only accelerate. Consequently, ESPs should continue to capture more than half of the value of artificial lift installations worldwide. ESPs System An ESP system is composed of a motor/centrifugal pump combination that is submerged in the fluid to be pumped. Submersible pumps are used in sewage pumping, general industrial pumping, slurry pumping, and in oil wells. However, designs for deep submersion applications differ significantly from those used in shallow submersion water well applications, as briefly outlined below: • High voltage motors are used to reduce cable size and cost • The deeper the submersion, the higher the temperature, which has an adverse effect on motor life • Deep wells such as oil wells are smaller in diameter, therefore slimmer pump and motor designs are required. Well fluids are prevented from entering the motor and causing a short circuit by a system of mechanical seals. Water well submersible pumps are hermetically sealed; while oil well submersible pumps employ a special seal chamber (commonly called a protector) that equalizes the pressure in the motor with the wellbore pressure to reduce the chances of well fluids entering the motor. Typical Surface Beam Pumping unit (Nodding Donkey) used for Rod Lift Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 16
  • 17. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 17 Pump Section Stages and bearings shown Pump Stage (Impeller & Diffuser) The ESP system consists of a number of components that turn a staged series of centrifugal pumps to increase the pressure of the well fluid as it passes through the pump and push it to the surface. The energy required to drive the pump is provided by a special motor that works at high temperatures of up to 232°C and high pressures, to depths of up to 4.5 km and in casing sizes from 4.5 inches to 13.38 inches. The electric motor is submerged together with the rest of the pump assembly at a pre-calculated depth in the well. ESP motors differ from conventional electric motors in that the internal airspace is filled with a high dielectric strength mineral oil, that provides a non-compressible medium inside the motor. In the case of hermetically sealed motors, this prevents the structure from imploding under the intense bore pressures, and transfers heat to the motor housing, which is cooled by the flow of fluids past the motor. For this reason, the motor is always installed below the pump. The pumps have limited ability to deal with solids such as sand because of their high rotational speed and compactness of size. If free gas is present, a gas separator is also employed since the presence of gas in the pump will reduce the amount of liquids pumped and could cause gas locking. he ESP, by lowering the pressure in the wellbore, significantly raises the amount of fluid produced compared to a well’s natural drive. New varieties of ESPs include a water/oil separator that allows the water to be re-injected into the reservoir without the need to lift it to the surface. A downhole sensor can be coupled to the bottom of the motor to provide an operator with additional information on the performance of the well. Drawbacks to ESPs ESPs are complicated mechanisms that have limited operational life. The pump can be damaged by solids or debris so protective shrouds are placed over the fluid intakes to prevent this from happening. Sand abrasion is the biggest problem with ESPs because all the bearing areas in the pump and intake are exposed to well-bore fluids. Clearly, when abrasive materials enter the production fluids, the bearing surfaces rapidly wear out and a premature system failure occurs. Exotic bearing materials and extra bearings are often used in wells that produce sand. Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 17
  • 18. 18 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH As with all types of artificial lift, the reduced pressure in the wellbore due to the operation of the pump can cause gas contained in solution in the casing annulus to break out, so the casing annular space must be vented to the flowline at surface in order to maintain a fluid level above the pump intake. The possibility of producing large volumes of free gas through the pump can cause wear damage as well as potential motor overheating, although this is minimized by modern controls. Gas separators and other means are used where free gas is present, and are effective in reducing problems caused by gas in most cases. Once a downhole component of an ESP system fails there is little that can be done but to pull the entire ESP system and replace it with new, repaired or tested components. For lower volume applications (less than approximately 1,000 barrels per day) the high cost of ESPs compared to other forms of artificial lift is a drawback. Similarly, if the lift requirement is less than approximately 5,000 feet, PCP pumps may be more economical. However, for high volume, high lift applications, ESPs are usually the artificial method of choice. This is the main reason ESPs are usually only used to produce volumes that other forms of artificial lift are not capable of providing, or similarly to lift fluids from deep depths where this cannot be accomplished by other forms of artificial lift. Contract Market for ESPs In general terms, there are three main types of common contracts for delivering ESPs: (a) Performance Based Contracts; (b) Fixed Term Contracts or Alliances, and (c), Standard Contracts & Purchase Orders. (A) PERFORMANCE BASED CONTRACTS In the Middle East and other geographical areas, many oil companies with a large number of wells often specify fixed price, fixed duration, performance-based contracts with one ESP supplier for a period lasting between two to five years or longer. Although contract terms vary widely, a number of features are common such as: • Equipment is often leased (or services provided) by the supplier at a fixed daily rate per well • A target run time is set for each well, determined by the conditions of the well and/or history • There are penalties for short equipment run times and bonuses for long equipment run times • The ESP supplier replaces or repairs faulty equipment at its own cost unless it is determined that the fault was not caused by the supplier • The ESP supplier operates the wells on a daily basis Under this form of contract, the contractor not only supplies and services the ESP equipment but also needs to understand and be able to perform oilfield operations because part of the services provided entail daily well operations the contractor. In addition, in the case of leasing the contractor has to finance the cost of the equipment out of its daily fixed rate, and needs to demonstrate that it has the financial solvency to complete the contract. A performance bond or bank guarantee, which is usually 10% of the estimated contract value, is almost always required. A bid bond is also required at the time of a bid submission, which is forfeited if the bidder does not accept the contract or fails to provide a performance bond in the event of a successful bid. (B) FIXED TERM CONTRACT OR ALLIANCES This type of contract is also used by customers having a significant number of ESPs to operate and maintain. An alliance is formed with an ESP product and service provider to supply and test/repair ESPs and provide installation and removal services for a fixed term (3-5 or 5-7 years for example) at set prices. However, performance-based contract terms are not included. (C) STANDARD CONTRACTS AND PURCHASE ORDERS Customers with fewer wells such as in Iran, Egypt, Syria, Iraq, and UAE, or in countries where ESPs have a longer history such as Libya and Indonesia, normally purchase ESP equipment directly from the manufacturer. Some customers also prefer to buy various components from different vendors. Repair work for these types of customers is normally charged at a book rate for the specific equipment component. The repair price is approximately fifty percent of the list purchase price. The type of purchase contract a particular customer prefers varies according to numerous factors including: (1) experience of customer using ESPs; (2) geographic location of customer; (3) the degree of isolation of the oilfield; (4) proximity to established oilfield/ESP service centers, and (5) geopolitical factors. The economic factors that dictate what artificial lift equipment a customer will choose, and the type of contract to be signed, varies widely as can be seen by the example given below where two wells have similar artificial lift costs but the amount of oil produced is significantly different: Well Liquids Water Cut bopd Revenue/day prod b/d % ($75/bbl) Well A 5000 5 4750 $356,250 Well B 5000 95 250 $18,750 Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 18
  • 19. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 19 S.W.O.T Analysis ➔ Good and experienced management team with extensive knowledge in Libya and the Middle East, and active experience in Russia and Asia. ➔ More ESPs are needed to increase production from existing wells. ➔ Possibility of becoming a motor and pump manufacturer. ➔ Its core market in Libya and the Middle East buoyant in its demand for artificial lift. ➔ Strong oil service market. Strengths ➔ Management unknown to the UK investment community. ➔ Weak legal system and extensive bureaucracy in some of the countries where it operates. ➔ Main competitors form part of very large oil services companies with substantial financial muscle. ➔ Heavy reliance on joint ventures for growth. Weaknesses Opportunities ➔ High oil prices expected to remain for some time leading to higher oil company expenditure, benefiting oil services companies. ➔ ESP usage is expected to climb significantly during the following years in the Middle East, particularly in Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran. ➔ Many oil companies prefer dealing with an ESP supplier not associated with the Big Three. ➔ Competitors having problems meeting demand for ESPs Threats ➔ High oil prices lead to a decline in world economic growth and hence a fall in oil consumption, thus lowering the need to increase production substantially. ➔ Some of the large regional suppliers of ESPs expand into COSCO’s traditional markets. ➔ Political issues in the Middle East. Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 19
  • 20. 20 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH Growth EBITDA Net cash Growth metrics % Profitability metrics % Balance sheet metrics EPS CAGR 05-09e -278.5 ROCE2008e 106.6 Gearing 2008e 109.0 EPS CAGR 07-09e 18.7 Avg ROCE 05-09e 51.6 Interest cover 2008e 205.1 EBITDA CAGR 05-09e -310.7 ROE 2008e 41.7 Stock turn 2008e 54.8 EBITDA CAGR 07-09e 15.1 Gross margin 2008e 48.0 Debtor days 2008e 76.7 Sales CAGR 05-09e 60.6 Operating margin 2008e 45.5 Creditor days 2008e 127.8 Sales CAGR 07-09e 14.2 Gross mgm/Op margin 1.1 Principal shareholders % Management team Mark Dorin 25.8 Mark Dorin President Andrew Male 8.6 Andrew Male Director Andrew Walker 1.6 Andrew Walker Director Cooperative Shareholders 26.7 Forthcoming announcements/catalysts Date Company details AGM - 9760 60th Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada T6E OC5 Trading update - Phone +1 780 430 0840 Interim results - Fax +1 780 430 0367 Full results - www.COSCOesp.com This research report has been prepared by VSA Resources Limited, for which it has been paid a fee, as corporate finance advisors and arrangers to COSCO ESP Ltd and is solely for and directed at persons who have professional experience in matters relating to investments and who are Investment Professionals, as specified in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2001. This research report is exempt from the general restriction on the communication of invitations or inducements to enter into investment activity and has therefore not been approved by an authorised person, as would otherwise be required by Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (the "Act"). Persons who do not fall within the above category should return this research report to VSA Resources Limited, 43 London Wall, London, EC2M 5TF, immediately. This research report is not intended to be distributed or passed on, directly or indirectly, to any other class of persons. It is being supplied to you solely for your information and may not be reproduced, forwarded to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without out prior written consent. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any securities or any options, futures or other derivatives related to such securities. The information and opinions contained in this research report have been compiled or arrived at by VSA Resources Limited (the "Company") from sources believed to be reliable and in good faith but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. All opinions and estimates contained in the research report constitute the Company's judgements as of the date of the report and are subject to change without notice. The information contained in the report is published for the assistance of those persons defined above but it is not to be relied upon as authoritative or taken in substitution for the exercise of the judgement of any reader. The Company accepts no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of the information contained herein. The company does not make any representation to any reader of the research report as to the suitability of any investment made in connection with this report and readers must satisfy themselves of the suitability in light of their own understanding, appraisal of risk and reward, objectives, experience and financial and operational resources. The value of any companies or securities referred to in this research report may rise as well as fall and sums recovered may be less than those originally invested. Any references to past performance of any companies or investments referred to in this research report are not indicative of their future performance. The Company and/or its directors and/or employees may have long or short positions in the securities mentioned herein, or in options, futures and other derivative instruments based on these securities or commodities. Not all of the products recommended or discussed in this research report may be regulated by the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 and the rules made for the protection of investors by that Act will not apply to them. If you are in any doubt about the investment to which this report relates, you should consult a person authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority who specialises in advising on securities of the kind described. The Company does and seeks to do business with the companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the Company may have a conflict of interest that may affect the objectivity of this report. The analyst who prepared this report has not and will not receive any compensation for providing a specific recommendation or view in this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. The information in this report is not intended to be published or made available to any person in the United Sates of America (USA) or Canada or any jurisdiction where to do so would result in contravention of any applicable laws or regulations. Accordingly, if it is prohibited to make such information available in your jurisdiction or to you (by reason of your nationality, residence or otherwise) it is not directed at you. VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority IMPORTANT NOTICE 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 0 5 10 15 20 25 2005 2006 2007 2008 US$m 2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 US$m US$m Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 20
  • 21. VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 21 NOTES Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 21
  • 22. 22 COSCO ESP LTD PRE-IPO FUNDING OCTOBER 2006 VSA RESOURCES INVESTMENT RESEARCH NOTES Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 22
  • 23. Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 23
  • 24. For further information please contact COSCO ESP Ltd 9760 60th Avenue Edmonton Alberta Canada T6E 0C5 Tel +1 780 430 0840 Fax +1 780 430 0367 www.COSCOesp.com VSA Resources 43 London Wall London EC2M 5TF Telephone +44 (0)20 7628 3989 Fax: +44 (0)20 7920 0563 bmcbeth@vsaresources.com www.vsaresources.com © VSA Resources Ltd VSA Resources Ltd. is Authorised and Regulated by the Financial Services Authority and is a member of the London Stock Exchange Cosco artwork 19/10/06 20/10/06 10:13 Page 24