CMG Investment Strategies
                                                                                                                  R-Squared (Coefficient of Determination)
                                                                                                                             vs. Major Indices
                                                                                                                                 June 2011

                                                                                                              System
                                                                                   Cook S&P      Scotia                                                            Scotia                                                     Barclays                        Philadelphia
                                                      AIFS Active    Anchor                                  Research       CMG                       Howard                    CMG          Barclays Barclays US Barclays               Barclays DJ Wilshire
                                                                                    500 ETF      Growth                                  Heritage                 Dynamic                                                   High Yield                          Gold &
              October 1993 to June 2011               U.S. Treasury Capital L/S                              Treasury    Opportunistic                 Sector                  Managed      Aggregate  Treasury Equity Long             Long-Term 5000 Total               S&P 500 TR
                                                                                    Trading     S&P Plus                                  Gold                   Momentum                                                   Credit Bond                          Silver
                                                      Management High Yield                                    Bond       All Asset                   Rotation                 HY Bond     Bond Index    Bond      Short                 Treasury   Market
                                                                                    Strategy    Program                                                           Program                                                      Index                            Miners
                                                                                                             Program

Tactical Long/Short:

AIFS Active U.S. Treasury Strategy                        1.000        0.044         0.001       0.023        0.201         0.004         0.054        0.116        0.078        0.017       0.041        0.055        0.073        0.000        0.016       0.061        0.018        0.051

Anchor Capital L/S High Yield Program                     0.044        1.000         0.070       0.050        0.013         0.217         0.003        0.028        0.156        0.338       0.061        0.002        0.177        0.135        0.007       0.148        0.047        0.149

Cook S&P 500 ETF Trading Strategy                         0.001        0.070        1.000        0.045        0.060         0.003         0.050        0.153        0.007        0.018       0.003        0.011        0.014        0.000        0.000       0.005        0.002        0.006

Scotia Partners Growth S&P Plus Program                   0.023        0.050         0.045       1.000        0.018         0.030         0.064        0.001        0.000        0.003       0.001        0.000        0.074        0.006        0.000       0.014        0.013        0.019

System Research Treasury Bond Program                     0.201        0.013         0.060       0.018        1.000         0.103         0.028        0.019        0.018        0.023       0.226        0.206        0.028        0.000        0.241       0.000        0.065        0.000

Tactical Equity:

CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy                      0.004        0.217         0.003       0.030        0.103         1.000         0.007        0.295        0.429        0.192       0.030        0.002        0.619        0.136        0.007       0.452        0.162        0.394

Heritage Capital Gold Strategy                            0.054        0.003         0.050       0.064        0.028         0.007         1.000        0.003        0.001        0.000       0.005        0.000        0.001        0.002        0.002       0.002        0.042        0.002

Howard Sector Rotation Program                            0.116        0.028         0.153       0.001        0.019         0.295         0.003        1.000        0.236        0.090       0.024        0.071        0.351        0.063        0.065       0.262        0.045        0.249

Scotia Dynamic Momentum Program                           0.078        0.156         0.007       0.000        0.018         0.429         0.001        0.236        1.000        0.325       0.000        0.072        0.529        0.343        0.054       0.548        0.102        0.511

Tactical Fixed Income:

CMG Managed HY Bond Program                               0.017        0.338         0.018       0.003        0.023         0.192         0.000        0.090        0.325        1.000       0.039        0.000        0.161        0.444        0.005       0.278        0.037        0.260

Index Correlations:

Barclays Aggregate Bond Index                             0.041        0.061         0.003       0.001        0.226         0.030         0.005        0.024        0.000        0.039       1.000        0.854        0.001        0.049        0.797       0.003        0.042        0.005

Barclays Capital US Treasury Bond Index                   0.055        0.002         0.011       0.000        0.206         0.002         0.000        0.071        0.072        0.000       0.854        1.000        0.036        0.009        0.921       0.026        0.016        0.018

Barclays Equity Long Short Index                          0.073        0.177         0.014       0.074        0.028         0.619         0.001        0.351        0.529        0.161       0.001        0.036        1.000        0.212        0.024       0.551        0.122        0.457

Barclays High Yield Credit Bond Index                     0.000        0.135         0.000       0.006        0.000         0.136         0.002        0.063        0.343        0.444       0.049        0.009        0.212        1.000        0.003       0.401        0.062        0.367

Barclays Long-Term Treasury Index                         0.016        0.007         0.000       0.000        0.241         0.007         0.002        0.065        0.054        0.005       0.797        0.921        0.024        0.003        1.000       0.014        0.020        0.009

DJ Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index                       0.061        0.148         0.005       0.014        0.000         0.452         0.002        0.262        0.548        0.278       0.003        0.026        0.551        0.401        0.014       1.000        0.076        0.973

Philadelphia Gold & Silver Miners Index                   0.018        0.047         0.002       0.013        0.065         0.162         0.042        0.045        0.102        0.037       0.042        0.016        0.122        0.062        0.020       0.076        1.000        0.060

S&P 500 Total Return                                      0.051        0.149         0.006       0.019        0.000         0.394         0.002        0.249        0.511        0.260       0.005        0.018        0.457        0.367        0.009       0.973        0.060        1.000

 Description Of R-Squared
 The coefficient of determination (R-Squared) serves as an indication of the “fit’ of the data points to the regression line. Regression models are used to predict one variable based on the observations of another variable. For our purposes, the independent variable is a market index
 return (i.e. S&P 500) and the dependent variable is the performance of a fund or strategy. Visually, the monthly results of each are plotted on a scatter graph, each point representing an “x” value equal to the index return and a “y” value equal to the fund return for the same month.
 A “least-squares” linear regression line is calculated as a “best-fit” to represent the data points.

 An R-squared of 1.00 would indicate that each data point was located on the regression line; in other words, a perfect fit. An r-squared near zero would indicate that the regression line is essentially meaningless - date points appear random and do not strongly support the regression
 line. A low r-squared is generally appealing when seeking an investment which acts independently of the market index.

 Note: Starting date of data range is based off the inception of the CMG Managed HY Bond Program.
 Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was formerly known as the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index. Barclays High Yield Credit Bond Index was formerly known as the Lehman Brothers High Yield Credit Bond Index
CMG Investment Strategies
                                                                                                                                Correlation Coefficient
                                                                                                                                   vs. Major Indices
                                                                                                                                       June 2011

                                                                                                                System
                                                                                    Cook S&P      Scotia                                                               Scotia                                                     Barclays
                                                       AIFS Active    Anchor                                   Research       CMG                        Howard                     CMG          Barclays Barclays US Barclays               Barclays DJ Wilshire Philadelphia
                                                                                     500 ETF      Growth                                    Heritage                  Dynamic                                                   High Yield
              October 1993 to June 2011                U.S. Treasury Capital L/S                               Treasury    Opportunistic                  Sector                   Managed      Aggregate  Treasury Equity Long             Long-Term 5000 Total Gold & Silver S&P 500 TR
                                                                                     Trading     S&P Plus                                    Gold                    Momentum                                                   Credit Bond
                                                       Management High Yield                                     Bond       All Asset                    Rotation                  HY Bond     Bond Index    Bond      Short                 Treasury   Market      Miners
                                                                                     Strategy    Program                                                              Program                                                      Index
                                                                                                               Program

Tactical Long/Short:

AIFS Active U.S. Treasury Strategy                         1.000        0.209         0.032        0.150        0.449         (0.064)        (0.232)      (0.340)      (0.280)       (0.130)      0.203        0.234        (0.270)      (0.021)      0.125        (0.247)       0.135        (0.225)

Anchor Capital L/S High Yield Program                      0.209        1.000        (0.265)      (0.224)       0.113         0.466          (0.057)      0.166         0.395        0.581        0.246        0.042        0.421        0.368        0.082        0.385         0.217        0.385

Cook S&P 500 ETF Trading Strategy                          0.032        (0.265)       1.000        0.213        0.245         (0.057)        0.224        (0.391)      (0.082)       (0.134)      0.058        0.104        (0.117)      0.001        0.017        0.074        (0.039)       0.078

Scotia Partners Growth S&P Plus Program                    0.150        (0.224)       0.213        1.000        0.135         (0.174)        0.253        (0.023)      (0.003)       0.051        (0.032)      0.015        (0.272)      0.076        (0.022)      (0.120)      (0.113)       (0.137)

System Research Treasury Bond Program                      0.449        0.113         0.245        0.135        1.000         0.322          (0.167)      (0.138)      (0.133)       0.151        0.475        0.454        (0.167)      (0.014)      0.491        (0.006)       0.256        0.011

Tactical Equity:

CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy                      (0.064)       0.466        (0.057)      (0.174)       0.322         1.000          0.085        0.543         0.655        0.438        0.173        0.042        0.787        0.369        0.085        0.673         0.403        0.627

Heritage Capital Gold Strategy                            (0.232)       (0.057)       0.224        0.253       (0.167)        0.085          1.000        0.056         0.031        (0.011)      (0.071)      (0.021)      (0.030)      (0.040)      (0.044)      (0.040)       0.205        (0.044)

Howard Sector Rotation Program                            (0.340)       0.166        (0.391)      (0.023)      (0.138)        0.543          0.056        1.000         0.486        0.299        (0.156)      (0.266)      0.592        0.251        (0.255)      0.512         0.213        0.499

Scotia Dynamic Momentum Program                           (0.280)       0.395        (0.082)      (0.003)      (0.133)        0.655          0.031        0.486         1.000        0.570        (0.019)      (0.268)      0.727        0.586        (0.233)      0.741         0.320        0.715

Tactical Fixed Income:

CMG Managed HY Bond Program                               (0.130)       0.581        (0.134)       0.051        0.151         0.438          (0.011)      0.299         0.570        1.000        0.198        0.012        0.402        0.666        0.069        0.527         0.193        0.510

Index Correlations:

Barclays Aggregate Bond Index                              0.203        0.246         0.058       (0.032)       0.475         0.173          (0.071)      (0.156)      (0.019)       0.198        1.000        0.924        (0.025)      0.221        0.893        0.052         0.206        0.073

Barclays Capital US Treasury Bond Index                    0.234        0.042         0.104        0.015        0.454         0.042          (0.021)      (0.266)      (0.268)       0.012        0.924        1.000        (0.190)      (0.097)      0.960        (0.160)       0.128        (0.135)

Barclays Equity Long Short Index                          (0.270)       0.421        (0.117)      (0.272)      (0.167)        0.787          (0.030)      0.592         0.727        0.402        (0.025)      (0.190)      1.000        0.461        (0.154)      0.742         0.349        0.676

Barclays High Yield Credit Bond Index                     (0.021)       0.368         0.001        0.076       (0.014)        0.369          (0.040)      0.251         0.586        0.666        0.221        (0.097)      0.461        1.000        (0.055)      0.633         0.249        0.605

Barclays Long-Term Treasury Index                          0.125        0.082         0.017       (0.022)       0.491         0.085          (0.044)      (0.255)      (0.233)       0.069        0.893        0.960        (0.154)      (0.055)      1.000        (0.119)       0.142        (0.096)

DJ Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index                       (0.247)       0.385         0.074       (0.120)      (0.006)        0.673          (0.040)      0.512         0.741        0.527        0.052        (0.160)      0.742        0.633        (0.119)      1.000         0.275        0.986

Philadelphia Gold & Silver Miners Index                    0.135        0.217        (0.039)      (0.113)       0.256         0.403          0.205        0.213         0.320        0.193        0.206        0.128        0.349        0.249        0.142        0.275         1.000        0.245

S&P 500 Total Return                                      (0.225)       0.385         0.078       (0.137)       0.011         0.627          (0.044)      0.499         0.715        0.510        0.073        (0.135)      0.676        0.605        (0.096)      0.986         0.245        1.000

 Description Of Correlation
 Correlation, represented by the correlation coefficient (R), measures the extent of linear association of two variables, and ranges between -1 and +1. Perfect positive correlation (a correlation co-efficient of +1) implies that as one security moves, either up or down, the other security will
 move in lockstep, in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation (correlation co-efficient of -1) means that if one security moves in either direction the security that is perfectly negatively correlated will move by an equal amount in the opposite direction. If the
 correlation is 0, the movements of the securities is said to have no correlation. It is completely random. For example, if one security moves up or down there is as good a chance that the other will move either up or down, but the way in which they move is totally random. A
 correlation between -0.50 and 0.50 signifies a weak relationship between a strategy and either its peers or the general markets. We believe incorporating non-correlating strategies into a portfolio is essential for diversification.

 Note: Starting date of data range is based off the inception of the CMG Managed HY Bond Program.
 Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was formerly known as the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index. Barclays High Yield Credit Bond Index was formerly known as the Lehman Brothers High Yield Credit Bond Index.

Correlation r2 matrix

  • 1.
    CMG Investment Strategies R-Squared (Coefficient of Determination) vs. Major Indices June 2011 System Cook S&P Scotia Scotia Barclays Philadelphia AIFS Active Anchor Research CMG Howard CMG Barclays Barclays US Barclays Barclays DJ Wilshire 500 ETF Growth Heritage Dynamic High Yield Gold & October 1993 to June 2011 U.S. Treasury Capital L/S Treasury Opportunistic Sector Managed Aggregate Treasury Equity Long Long-Term 5000 Total S&P 500 TR Trading S&P Plus Gold Momentum Credit Bond Silver Management High Yield Bond All Asset Rotation HY Bond Bond Index Bond Short Treasury Market Strategy Program Program Index Miners Program Tactical Long/Short: AIFS Active U.S. Treasury Strategy 1.000 0.044 0.001 0.023 0.201 0.004 0.054 0.116 0.078 0.017 0.041 0.055 0.073 0.000 0.016 0.061 0.018 0.051 Anchor Capital L/S High Yield Program 0.044 1.000 0.070 0.050 0.013 0.217 0.003 0.028 0.156 0.338 0.061 0.002 0.177 0.135 0.007 0.148 0.047 0.149 Cook S&P 500 ETF Trading Strategy 0.001 0.070 1.000 0.045 0.060 0.003 0.050 0.153 0.007 0.018 0.003 0.011 0.014 0.000 0.000 0.005 0.002 0.006 Scotia Partners Growth S&P Plus Program 0.023 0.050 0.045 1.000 0.018 0.030 0.064 0.001 0.000 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.074 0.006 0.000 0.014 0.013 0.019 System Research Treasury Bond Program 0.201 0.013 0.060 0.018 1.000 0.103 0.028 0.019 0.018 0.023 0.226 0.206 0.028 0.000 0.241 0.000 0.065 0.000 Tactical Equity: CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy 0.004 0.217 0.003 0.030 0.103 1.000 0.007 0.295 0.429 0.192 0.030 0.002 0.619 0.136 0.007 0.452 0.162 0.394 Heritage Capital Gold Strategy 0.054 0.003 0.050 0.064 0.028 0.007 1.000 0.003 0.001 0.000 0.005 0.000 0.001 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.042 0.002 Howard Sector Rotation Program 0.116 0.028 0.153 0.001 0.019 0.295 0.003 1.000 0.236 0.090 0.024 0.071 0.351 0.063 0.065 0.262 0.045 0.249 Scotia Dynamic Momentum Program 0.078 0.156 0.007 0.000 0.018 0.429 0.001 0.236 1.000 0.325 0.000 0.072 0.529 0.343 0.054 0.548 0.102 0.511 Tactical Fixed Income: CMG Managed HY Bond Program 0.017 0.338 0.018 0.003 0.023 0.192 0.000 0.090 0.325 1.000 0.039 0.000 0.161 0.444 0.005 0.278 0.037 0.260 Index Correlations: Barclays Aggregate Bond Index 0.041 0.061 0.003 0.001 0.226 0.030 0.005 0.024 0.000 0.039 1.000 0.854 0.001 0.049 0.797 0.003 0.042 0.005 Barclays Capital US Treasury Bond Index 0.055 0.002 0.011 0.000 0.206 0.002 0.000 0.071 0.072 0.000 0.854 1.000 0.036 0.009 0.921 0.026 0.016 0.018 Barclays Equity Long Short Index 0.073 0.177 0.014 0.074 0.028 0.619 0.001 0.351 0.529 0.161 0.001 0.036 1.000 0.212 0.024 0.551 0.122 0.457 Barclays High Yield Credit Bond Index 0.000 0.135 0.000 0.006 0.000 0.136 0.002 0.063 0.343 0.444 0.049 0.009 0.212 1.000 0.003 0.401 0.062 0.367 Barclays Long-Term Treasury Index 0.016 0.007 0.000 0.000 0.241 0.007 0.002 0.065 0.054 0.005 0.797 0.921 0.024 0.003 1.000 0.014 0.020 0.009 DJ Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index 0.061 0.148 0.005 0.014 0.000 0.452 0.002 0.262 0.548 0.278 0.003 0.026 0.551 0.401 0.014 1.000 0.076 0.973 Philadelphia Gold & Silver Miners Index 0.018 0.047 0.002 0.013 0.065 0.162 0.042 0.045 0.102 0.037 0.042 0.016 0.122 0.062 0.020 0.076 1.000 0.060 S&P 500 Total Return 0.051 0.149 0.006 0.019 0.000 0.394 0.002 0.249 0.511 0.260 0.005 0.018 0.457 0.367 0.009 0.973 0.060 1.000 Description Of R-Squared The coefficient of determination (R-Squared) serves as an indication of the “fit’ of the data points to the regression line. Regression models are used to predict one variable based on the observations of another variable. For our purposes, the independent variable is a market index return (i.e. S&P 500) and the dependent variable is the performance of a fund or strategy. Visually, the monthly results of each are plotted on a scatter graph, each point representing an “x” value equal to the index return and a “y” value equal to the fund return for the same month. A “least-squares” linear regression line is calculated as a “best-fit” to represent the data points. An R-squared of 1.00 would indicate that each data point was located on the regression line; in other words, a perfect fit. An r-squared near zero would indicate that the regression line is essentially meaningless - date points appear random and do not strongly support the regression line. A low r-squared is generally appealing when seeking an investment which acts independently of the market index. Note: Starting date of data range is based off the inception of the CMG Managed HY Bond Program. Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was formerly known as the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index. Barclays High Yield Credit Bond Index was formerly known as the Lehman Brothers High Yield Credit Bond Index
  • 2.
    CMG Investment Strategies Correlation Coefficient vs. Major Indices June 2011 System Cook S&P Scotia Scotia Barclays AIFS Active Anchor Research CMG Howard CMG Barclays Barclays US Barclays Barclays DJ Wilshire Philadelphia 500 ETF Growth Heritage Dynamic High Yield October 1993 to June 2011 U.S. Treasury Capital L/S Treasury Opportunistic Sector Managed Aggregate Treasury Equity Long Long-Term 5000 Total Gold & Silver S&P 500 TR Trading S&P Plus Gold Momentum Credit Bond Management High Yield Bond All Asset Rotation HY Bond Bond Index Bond Short Treasury Market Miners Strategy Program Program Index Program Tactical Long/Short: AIFS Active U.S. Treasury Strategy 1.000 0.209 0.032 0.150 0.449 (0.064) (0.232) (0.340) (0.280) (0.130) 0.203 0.234 (0.270) (0.021) 0.125 (0.247) 0.135 (0.225) Anchor Capital L/S High Yield Program 0.209 1.000 (0.265) (0.224) 0.113 0.466 (0.057) 0.166 0.395 0.581 0.246 0.042 0.421 0.368 0.082 0.385 0.217 0.385 Cook S&P 500 ETF Trading Strategy 0.032 (0.265) 1.000 0.213 0.245 (0.057) 0.224 (0.391) (0.082) (0.134) 0.058 0.104 (0.117) 0.001 0.017 0.074 (0.039) 0.078 Scotia Partners Growth S&P Plus Program 0.150 (0.224) 0.213 1.000 0.135 (0.174) 0.253 (0.023) (0.003) 0.051 (0.032) 0.015 (0.272) 0.076 (0.022) (0.120) (0.113) (0.137) System Research Treasury Bond Program 0.449 0.113 0.245 0.135 1.000 0.322 (0.167) (0.138) (0.133) 0.151 0.475 0.454 (0.167) (0.014) 0.491 (0.006) 0.256 0.011 Tactical Equity: CMG Opportunistic All Asset Strategy (0.064) 0.466 (0.057) (0.174) 0.322 1.000 0.085 0.543 0.655 0.438 0.173 0.042 0.787 0.369 0.085 0.673 0.403 0.627 Heritage Capital Gold Strategy (0.232) (0.057) 0.224 0.253 (0.167) 0.085 1.000 0.056 0.031 (0.011) (0.071) (0.021) (0.030) (0.040) (0.044) (0.040) 0.205 (0.044) Howard Sector Rotation Program (0.340) 0.166 (0.391) (0.023) (0.138) 0.543 0.056 1.000 0.486 0.299 (0.156) (0.266) 0.592 0.251 (0.255) 0.512 0.213 0.499 Scotia Dynamic Momentum Program (0.280) 0.395 (0.082) (0.003) (0.133) 0.655 0.031 0.486 1.000 0.570 (0.019) (0.268) 0.727 0.586 (0.233) 0.741 0.320 0.715 Tactical Fixed Income: CMG Managed HY Bond Program (0.130) 0.581 (0.134) 0.051 0.151 0.438 (0.011) 0.299 0.570 1.000 0.198 0.012 0.402 0.666 0.069 0.527 0.193 0.510 Index Correlations: Barclays Aggregate Bond Index 0.203 0.246 0.058 (0.032) 0.475 0.173 (0.071) (0.156) (0.019) 0.198 1.000 0.924 (0.025) 0.221 0.893 0.052 0.206 0.073 Barclays Capital US Treasury Bond Index 0.234 0.042 0.104 0.015 0.454 0.042 (0.021) (0.266) (0.268) 0.012 0.924 1.000 (0.190) (0.097) 0.960 (0.160) 0.128 (0.135) Barclays Equity Long Short Index (0.270) 0.421 (0.117) (0.272) (0.167) 0.787 (0.030) 0.592 0.727 0.402 (0.025) (0.190) 1.000 0.461 (0.154) 0.742 0.349 0.676 Barclays High Yield Credit Bond Index (0.021) 0.368 0.001 0.076 (0.014) 0.369 (0.040) 0.251 0.586 0.666 0.221 (0.097) 0.461 1.000 (0.055) 0.633 0.249 0.605 Barclays Long-Term Treasury Index 0.125 0.082 0.017 (0.022) 0.491 0.085 (0.044) (0.255) (0.233) 0.069 0.893 0.960 (0.154) (0.055) 1.000 (0.119) 0.142 (0.096) DJ Wilshire 5000 Total Market Index (0.247) 0.385 0.074 (0.120) (0.006) 0.673 (0.040) 0.512 0.741 0.527 0.052 (0.160) 0.742 0.633 (0.119) 1.000 0.275 0.986 Philadelphia Gold & Silver Miners Index 0.135 0.217 (0.039) (0.113) 0.256 0.403 0.205 0.213 0.320 0.193 0.206 0.128 0.349 0.249 0.142 0.275 1.000 0.245 S&P 500 Total Return (0.225) 0.385 0.078 (0.137) 0.011 0.627 (0.044) 0.499 0.715 0.510 0.073 (0.135) 0.676 0.605 (0.096) 0.986 0.245 1.000 Description Of Correlation Correlation, represented by the correlation coefficient (R), measures the extent of linear association of two variables, and ranges between -1 and +1. Perfect positive correlation (a correlation co-efficient of +1) implies that as one security moves, either up or down, the other security will move in lockstep, in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation (correlation co-efficient of -1) means that if one security moves in either direction the security that is perfectly negatively correlated will move by an equal amount in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the movements of the securities is said to have no correlation. It is completely random. For example, if one security moves up or down there is as good a chance that the other will move either up or down, but the way in which they move is totally random. A correlation between -0.50 and 0.50 signifies a weak relationship between a strategy and either its peers or the general markets. We believe incorporating non-correlating strategies into a portfolio is essential for diversification. Note: Starting date of data range is based off the inception of the CMG Managed HY Bond Program. Barclays Aggregate Bond Index was formerly known as the Lehman Brothers Aggregate Bond Index. Barclays High Yield Credit Bond Index was formerly known as the Lehman Brothers High Yield Credit Bond Index.