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Demonstrating Value in Housing and
    Community Development
                     Chris Walker
       Director of Research and Assessment
        Local Initiatives Support Corporation


            HAC Annual Conference
               Washington, DC
              December 6, 2012
                                                                      $250,000




                                                                      $200,000                                                                                Group 1




                                                Average Loan Amount
                                                                                                                                                              Group 2
                                                                      $150,000



                                                                                                                                                              Group 3

                                                                      $100,000

                                                                                                                                                              Group 4


                                                                       $50,000
                                                                                                                                                              Group 5




                                                                           $0
                                                                            1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                                                                 Year
Government Performance Review
                                Results-Based Accountability
      Act of 1993 (GPRA)
Collective Impact
$250,000




                      $200,000                                                                                Group 1
Average Loan Amount




                                                                                                              Group 2
                      $150,000



                                                                                                              Group 3

                      $100,000

                                                                                                              Group 4


                       $50,000
                                                                                                              Group 5




                                                                                                                                    The Classic Logic Model
                           $0
                            1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                 Year




                                                                                                                                                  If you
                                                                                                                                              accomplish                 If you          If these benefits
                                                                                                                                             your planned             accomplish           to participants
                                                                                                                                            activities, then         your planned          are achieved,
                                                                                                                          If you have            you will           activities to the       then certain
                                                                                                                        access to them,         hopefully             extent you             changes to
                                                 Certain                                                                 then you can          deliver the          intended, then         organizations,
                                              resources are                                                                use the to          amount of                  your           communities, or
                                                needed to                                                               accomplish your     product and/or          participants will   systems might be
                                               operate your                                                                 planned           service that             benefit in           expected to
                                                 program                                                                    activities       you intended            certain ways              occur

                                                  Resources/
                                                                                                                           Activities          Outputs                Outcomes              Impacts
                                                    Inputs


                                                                        1                                                      2                  3                         4                  5

                                                                                    Your Planned Work                                                          Your Intended Results



                                  Figure: How to Read a Logic Model
                                  Source: W.Kellogg Foundation, Logic Model Development Guide
Example of Classic Evaluation Approach:
  LISC Financial Opportunity Centers
LISC Financial Opportunity Centers
Sample Client Flow Chart
for a Workforce
Development Agency                Walk-ins:                                      Visit:
                                   Income                                       Resource
                                  Support                                        Room        Workshops:
                                                 Orientation
                                    Coach                                                    Employment
                                (temporary)


                                                                                              Financial
                                                  Financial
                                  Income           Coach                Employment             Income
                                 Supports                                Counselor            Supports
                                   Coach            CFA




                           Special Employment   Job Readiness
                                                  Programs             College Preparation
                                Programs




                                                                          Educational/
                                                  Employment           Vocational Programs
                                                   Specialist




                                                                   Job
                                                                Placement
                                                                    &
                                                                Retention
Research Question and Data Sources Matrix
LISC Financial Opportunity Center Evaluation
                                               Quantitative

                                                       Qualitative
Community Development Evaluation
Two Types of Community Development Outcomes


Population-Level Changes

      Changes to demographic, economic, and
      social indicators for a population defined by
      geography or other community characteristic

Changes in Levels of Service

      Changes in population access to, or participation in
      housing, workforce, education, and/or other
      services and supports within a geographic area
                                                                            $250,000




                                                                            $200,000                                                                                Group 1




                                                      Average Loan Amount
                                                                                                                                                                    Group 2
                                                                            $150,000



                                                                                                                                                                    Group 3

                                                                            $100,000

                                                                                                                                                                    Group 4



                                                                             $50,000
                                                                                                                                                                    Group 5




                                                                                 $0
                                                                                  1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                                                                       Year
Clustered Development
Four Corners / Portland-Franklin – Minneapolis
Figure 12: Denver and Five Points Impact Area



   Denver- Five Points Development Area



                           Five Points                      N
                           Development Area

                                                        W       E

                                                            S




Downtown Denver




  3               0    3                      6 Miles




                                                                                                                   $250,000




Galster, George, Diane Levy, Noah Sawyer, Kenneth Temkin and Christopher Walker. 2005. The                         $200,000                                                                                Group 1




Impact of Community Development Corporations on Urban Neighborhoods. Washington, DC: The




                                                                                             Average Loan Amount
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Group 2
                                                                                                                   $150,000



                                                                                                                                                                                                           Group 3




Urban Institute.
                                                                                                                   $100,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                           Group 4



                                                                                                                    $50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                           Group 5




                                                                                                                        $0
                                                                                                                         1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                                                                                                              Year
Figure 13
                               Property Value Changes in the Five Points Impact Area, Denver Low-Income
                                                Neighborhoods, and the City of Denver

                    $120,000


                    $100,000
Median Home Price




                     $80,000

                                                                                                                             Entire City
                     $60,000
                                                                                                                             Five Points -- Actual
                                                                                                                             Five Points -- Projected

                     $40,000                                                                                                 All Low-Income Areas



                     $20,000


                        $-
                                                  -I


                                                           -I


                                                                    -I
                                        88
                                 87




                                                                             -P


                                                                                      -P


                                                                                                -P


                                                                                                          -P


                                                                                                                   -P
                                                89


                                                         90


                                                                  91


                                                                           92


                                                                                    93




                                                                                                                 96
                                                                                             94


                                                                                                       95
                               19


                                      19


                                              19


                                                       19


                                                                19


                                                                         19


                                                                                  19


                                                                                           19


                                                                                                     19


                                                                                                               19
                                                                         Year
                                                                                                                                                         $250,000




             Note: An "I" appended to any year denotes Interim Intervention Period; a "P" denotes Post-Intervention Period                               $200,000                                                                                Group 1




                                                                                                                                   Average Loan Amount
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Group 2
                                                                                                                                                         $150,000



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Group 3

                                                                                                                                                         $100,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Group 4



                                                                                                                                                          $50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Group 5




                                                                                                                                                              $0
                                                                                                                                                               1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                    Year
Figure 14
                       Econometric Trend Analysis of Residential Property Value Change
                 in Five Points Impact Area Compared to All Other Denver Low-Income Areas



    Five Points Impact Area
    Other Denver Low-Income Areas



Percent Difference from Other Low-
           Income Areas

                                                                                                                        68.7%




   16.9%


        0%




        1st Quarter                           4th Quarter                 2nd Quarter                          4th Quarter
            1987                                  1988                          1991                               1997                               $250,000




                                                                                                                                                      $200,000                                                                                Group 1




                                                                                                                                Average Loan Amount
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Group 2
                                                                                                                                                      $150,000



                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Group 3




           Lines indicate property value changes relative to other low- income areas in Denver after controlling
                                                                                                                                                      $100,000

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Group 4




           for attributes of properties sold and general economic conditions.                                                                          $50,000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Group 5




                                                                                                                                                           $0
                                                                                                                                                            1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                                                                                                                                                 Year
$250,000




                      $200,000                                                                                Group 1
Average Loan Amount




                                                                                                              Group 2
                      $150,000



                                                                                                              Group 3

                      $100,000

                                                                                                              Group 4




                                                                                                                        Types of Community Access Measures
                       $50,000
                                                                                                              Group 5




                           $0
                            1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                 Year




                                                                                                   Type                                    Example


                                                                Container                                                       Number of job slots in county
                                                                                                                                paying more than $3,400 per month

                                                                Coverage                                                        Number of job slots with 30 miles
                                                                                                                                from the county population center

                                                                Min. Distance                                                   Distance between county center and
                                                                                                                                nearest full service hospital

                                                                Travel Cost                                                     Average distance between residence
                                                                                                                                and employment location

                                                                     Classification is from Gary Higgs (2005)
Access
Measures
Example of Container
Access Measure:

Census Tracts without
Access to Full-Service
Supermarket
Example of Distance
Access Measure:

Job Locations within
1 Mile of Neighborhood
Center
$250,000




                                                                       $200,000                                                                                Group 1




                                                 Average Loan Amount
                                                                                                                                                               Group 2
                                                                       $150,000




Housing Impacts
                                                                                                                                                               Group 3

                                                                       $100,000

                                                                                                                                                               Group 4


                                                                        $50,000
                                                                                                                                                               Group 5




                                                                            $0
                                                                             1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                                                                  Year




Mixed-Use Development: Dartmouth Hotel: Boston
Model of Possible Housing Project Neighborhood Effects


Physical Improvements                                         Housing market response
                                      Improve physical
                                      appearance
        Construct / renovate
        residential space                                      Improved public safety
                                      Remove crime sites


                                      Increase foot traffic     Commercial / retail
       Create non-residential space                             vitality



        Supply community amenities    Increased purchasing     Increased supply of social /
                                                               health services
Occupancy
                                       Increased civic          Stronger schools
        New occupied units             participation            quality


       New working / moderate                                   Stronger community
       income families                                          relationships
Mixed-Use Development
Adams & Central
South Los Angeles
Demonstrating Value in Housing and
    Community Development
            Thanks for Listening!


                     Chris Walker
       Director of Research and Assessment
        Local Initiatives Support Corporation
                  cwalker@lisc.org


                                                                      $250,000




                                                                      $200,000                                                                                Group 1




                                                Average Loan Amount
                                                                                                                                                              Group 2
                                                                      $150,000



                                                                                                                                                              Group 3

                                                                      $100,000

                                                                                                                                                              Group 4


                                                                       $50,000
                                                                                                                                                              Group 5




                                                                           $0
                                                                            1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

                                                                                                                 Year

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C3 measuring impact chris walker - lisc

  • 1. Demonstrating Value in Housing and Community Development Chris Walker Director of Research and Assessment Local Initiatives Support Corporation HAC Annual Conference Washington, DC December 6, 2012 $250,000 $200,000 Group 1 Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Group 3 $100,000 Group 4 $50,000 Group 5 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year
  • 2. Government Performance Review Results-Based Accountability Act of 1993 (GPRA)
  • 4. $250,000 $200,000 Group 1 Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Group 3 $100,000 Group 4 $50,000 Group 5 The Classic Logic Model $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year If you accomplish If you If these benefits your planned accomplish to participants activities, then your planned are achieved, If you have you will activities to the then certain access to them, hopefully extent you changes to Certain then you can deliver the intended, then organizations, resources are use the to amount of your communities, or needed to accomplish your product and/or participants will systems might be operate your planned service that benefit in expected to program activities you intended certain ways occur Resources/ Activities Outputs Outcomes Impacts Inputs 1 2 3 4 5 Your Planned Work Your Intended Results Figure: How to Read a Logic Model Source: W.Kellogg Foundation, Logic Model Development Guide
  • 5. Example of Classic Evaluation Approach: LISC Financial Opportunity Centers
  • 6. LISC Financial Opportunity Centers Sample Client Flow Chart for a Workforce Development Agency Walk-ins: Visit: Income Resource Support Room Workshops: Orientation Coach Employment (temporary) Financial Financial Income Coach Employment Income Supports Counselor Supports Coach CFA Special Employment Job Readiness Programs College Preparation Programs Educational/ Employment Vocational Programs Specialist Job Placement & Retention
  • 7.
  • 8. Research Question and Data Sources Matrix LISC Financial Opportunity Center Evaluation Quantitative Qualitative
  • 10. Two Types of Community Development Outcomes Population-Level Changes Changes to demographic, economic, and social indicators for a population defined by geography or other community characteristic Changes in Levels of Service Changes in population access to, or participation in housing, workforce, education, and/or other services and supports within a geographic area $250,000 $200,000 Group 1 Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Group 3 $100,000 Group 4 $50,000 Group 5 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year
  • 11. Clustered Development Four Corners / Portland-Franklin – Minneapolis
  • 12. Figure 12: Denver and Five Points Impact Area Denver- Five Points Development Area Five Points N Development Area W E S Downtown Denver 3 0 3 6 Miles $250,000 Galster, George, Diane Levy, Noah Sawyer, Kenneth Temkin and Christopher Walker. 2005. The $200,000 Group 1 Impact of Community Development Corporations on Urban Neighborhoods. Washington, DC: The Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Group 3 Urban Institute. $100,000 Group 4 $50,000 Group 5 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year
  • 13. Figure 13 Property Value Changes in the Five Points Impact Area, Denver Low-Income Neighborhoods, and the City of Denver $120,000 $100,000 Median Home Price $80,000 Entire City $60,000 Five Points -- Actual Five Points -- Projected $40,000 All Low-Income Areas $20,000 $- -I -I -I 88 87 -P -P -P -P -P 89 90 91 92 93 96 94 95 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 Year $250,000 Note: An "I" appended to any year denotes Interim Intervention Period; a "P" denotes Post-Intervention Period $200,000 Group 1 Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Group 3 $100,000 Group 4 $50,000 Group 5 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year
  • 14. Figure 14 Econometric Trend Analysis of Residential Property Value Change in Five Points Impact Area Compared to All Other Denver Low-Income Areas Five Points Impact Area Other Denver Low-Income Areas Percent Difference from Other Low- Income Areas 68.7% 16.9% 0% 1st Quarter 4th Quarter 2nd Quarter 4th Quarter 1987 1988 1991 1997 $250,000 $200,000 Group 1 Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Group 3 Lines indicate property value changes relative to other low- income areas in Denver after controlling $100,000 Group 4 for attributes of properties sold and general economic conditions. $50,000 Group 5 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year
  • 15. $250,000 $200,000 Group 1 Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Group 3 $100,000 Group 4 Types of Community Access Measures $50,000 Group 5 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Type Example Container Number of job slots in county paying more than $3,400 per month Coverage Number of job slots with 30 miles from the county population center Min. Distance Distance between county center and nearest full service hospital Travel Cost Average distance between residence and employment location Classification is from Gary Higgs (2005)
  • 17. Example of Container Access Measure: Census Tracts without Access to Full-Service Supermarket
  • 18. Example of Distance Access Measure: Job Locations within 1 Mile of Neighborhood Center
  • 19. $250,000 $200,000 Group 1 Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Housing Impacts Group 3 $100,000 Group 4 $50,000 Group 5 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year Mixed-Use Development: Dartmouth Hotel: Boston
  • 20. Model of Possible Housing Project Neighborhood Effects Physical Improvements Housing market response Improve physical appearance Construct / renovate residential space Improved public safety Remove crime sites Increase foot traffic Commercial / retail Create non-residential space vitality Supply community amenities Increased purchasing Increased supply of social / health services Occupancy Increased civic Stronger schools New occupied units participation quality New working / moderate Stronger community income families relationships
  • 21.
  • 22.
  • 23.
  • 24. Mixed-Use Development Adams & Central South Los Angeles
  • 25.
  • 26.
  • 27. Demonstrating Value in Housing and Community Development Thanks for Listening! Chris Walker Director of Research and Assessment Local Initiatives Support Corporation cwalker@lisc.org $250,000 $200,000 Group 1 Average Loan Amount Group 2 $150,000 Group 3 $100,000 Group 4 $50,000 Group 5 $0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year

Editor's Notes

  1. Dudley Square neighborhood. The 65 apartments provide living space at reasonable rents in an affordable apartment-starved city; the residents lend new street life to the commercial and transit hub; and local businesses have an additional source of customers