BY : JANNAT GUL SOOMRO MBA (MUISTD) JAMSHORO SINDH

1. Balance Of Payment
(BOP) Trend analysis
BY: JANNAT GUL SOOMRO
17S-MBA-BS-13

2. Current Account (FY-12 to FY-16):
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Current Account Balance -4658 -2496 -3130 -2709 -3394
-5000
-4500
-4000
-3500
-3000
-2500
-2000
-1500
-1000
-500
0
Balance
Fiscal Year
Current Account Balance

3. Current Account FY 2012- FY 2013:
• In fiscal year 2013 deficit was -2649 as compared to -4658 in 2012 this
accounts for 46% decrease in net deficit.
• REASONS:
• Decline in imports, fertilizer, food, transport.
• Decreased in oil prices.
• Increased export of textile.
• Deficits of exports in service sectors.

4. Current Account 2013-2014:
• Current Account deficit as increased by 20% as compared to last year decline
by deficit by 46%.
• REASONS:
• Increase in net transfers from Pakistan.
• Non transfer of CSF.

5. Current Account 2014-2015:
• Decrease in deficit by 53.5% was observed is fiscal year 2014-2015.
• REASONS:
• CSF inflows increased.
• Lower freight expenses.

6. Current Account 2015-2016:
• Deficit increase of 2.1 percent.
• REASONS:
• Exports declined .
• Imports on machinery and metal increased.
• service exports declined.

7. Current Account 2016-2017:
• Increased of 33.1% in trade deficit.
• REASONS:
• Increased in imports ( machinery and equipment by CPEC).
• exports of telecom and travel service improved.
• the income account deficit increased.

8. Capital Account Balance FY2012-FY2017):
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Capital Account Balance 183 264 1857 375 273
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
Balance
Fiscal year
Capital Account Balance

9. Capital Account Balance FY 2012-FY 2013:
• FDI increased by 29.7%.
• Portfolio increased.
Capital Account Balance FY 2013 – FY 2014:
FY 2013-FY 2014 recorded tremendous improvement, capital account shows surplus as compared to last year.
REASONS:
Portfolio investment increased.
Realization of sovereign bond .

10. Capital Account Balance FY 2014-FY 2015:
• Surplus decreased by 39.54%.
• REASONS:
• Net foreign investment decreased.
• FDI, telecom, textile, and food packing recorded higher inflows.

11. Capital Account Balance (FY 2015-FY 2016):
• Surplus decreased by 16.14%.
• REASONS:
• The disbursement of short and long term loan increased.
• The portfolios investments decreased.
• Weak in global oil prices.
• Interest rate high by US central bank which affect portfolio investment in
private sector.

12. Capital account Balance FY 2016-FY 2017:
• The capital and financial account surplus increased by 27%.
• REASONS:
• FDI inflows were rose.
• China contributed 37.1% percent of overall inflows.
• The power sector received the second highest inflows.
• Portfolio investment increased by 37%.

13. Official Reserve Account (FY 2012-FY 2016):
FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Official Reserves 3275 1992 3858 2464 2652
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Balance
Fiscal Year
Official Reserves

14. Official Reserve account (FY 2012-FY 2016):
• In 2012 reserves accounts decreased in reserves assets and use of funds credit.
• In 2013 reserved account showed negative balance due to repayment in current year.
• In 2014 reserves accounts increased because use of funds credit repayment in
current year decreased by 12%.
• In 2015 reserves accounts decreased against arrangement by monetary authority by
government .
• In 2016 reserves assets increased due to the loan from IMF.