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EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 1
INVESTMENT POINTS
♦ Isabel is world scale. Previous work (INCO, Kaiser Engineers) at Isabel
gave an estimate of mineralisation (non JORC compliant) of 159Mt
@1.05% Ni and 0.06% Co (equivalent to 1.6Mt of contained nickel) to a
depth of only ~6m.
♦ AVQ’s initial drilling has indicated prevalence of higher grade saprolitic ore
(>1.5% Ni) below 8m depth. This suggests potential for significantly higher
tonnage and better grades than the INCO-Kaiser estimates.
♦ AVQ is aiming for first production in late 4Q15 with ~2Mtpa direct shipping
ore (DSO) operation. Discussions with project partners/funders underway.
♦ A 2Mtpa DSO operation would give Axiom a low capex (~US$25-35M) fast
track route to production. On our projections the project is robust generating
strong cashflow (forecast ~A$50Mpa assuming US$60/t DSO price) and
laying the foundations for a larger scale ore upgrading project.
♦ The nickel price (and DSO prices) are forecast to move into an uptrend in
2H15 due to looming supply deficits.
♦ Our base case valuation for AVQ of A$0.050/share is based on risk-
discounted scenario of initial DSO production from Isabel at 1.5% Ni. Our
medium term target (6 months) is A$0.035/share assuming Sumitomo is
unsuccessful in its appeal against the court ruling.
♦ Assuming 1.8%Ni DSO product raises our valuation to A$0.076/share (due
to increased DSO product value from US$60/t to US$80/t).
♦ Our valuation is underpinned by benchmarking listed DSO producer: Asia
Nickel Corp – US$2.4bn market cap = US$132M per Mtpa DSO production.
AVQ is currently capitalised at ~US$31M.
♦ Six month share price catalysts include likely dismissal of SMM appeal
against the court ruling and near term cash injection (~A$4.8M) from court
costs claim, further high grade Isabel drilling results, anticipated positive
milestones in Isabel Project financing/partnering.
EXPLORATION AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS
23 MARCH 2015
SOLOMON ISLANDS, VIETNAM, AUSTRALIA
(QLD)
NICKEL-COBALT, GOLD, SILVER, BASE
METALS
ADVANCED EXPLORATION
EXCHANGE: ASX:AVQ
CAPITAL PROFILE
DIRECTORS
Stephen Williams (Non Exec Chairman)
Ryan Mount (CEO and Managing Director)
Mr Ryan Mount
CEO and Managing Director
Tel: +(61) 7 3319 4100
Newstead, QLD, Australia
Tel: +67 7 29877
Honiara, Solomon Islands
www.axiom-mining.com
Analyst: Dr Tony Parry
tonyparry@rcresearch.com.au
52 week range (A$/share) 0.032 to
Debt (A$M) - Mar '15F
Enterprise value (A$M)
Avg monthlyvolume (M)
Cash (A$M) - Mar '15F
Price/Cash (x)
Price/Book (x)
Listed companyoptions:
Share price (A$) 0.011
0.008
Number of shares (M) 3605.4
Options and warrants (M) 437.7
Convertible notes (M) * 0.00
Fully diluted * (M) 4043.0
Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$M) 39.7
0.0
37.9
Major shareholders: Drake Private Investments (7.5%),
Anitua Ltd (6.9%), Admark Investments P/L (3.6%)
262.5
1.7
22.7
4.0
No
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
SharePrice($/Share)
AVQ – Axiom Mining Limited Limited
Source: Commsec
AXIOM MINING LIMITED
Axiom is focused on low capex DSO production in 4Q15 at
the Isabel Nickel Project (80% AVQ) – potentially one of the
Pacific’s largest and most attractive laterite deposits.
Share Price: A$0.011 Recommendation: Speculative Buy
Excellent recent drilling results have indicated a strong likelihood
of premium grades (>1.5% Ni) at Isabel, which will strongly
enhance project economics and support project financing. The
current share price is 78% below our base case valuation of
A$0.050/share (assuming 2Mtpa initial production), a massive
discount amplified by investor concerns over a court appeal by
Japanese giant Sumitomo over ownership of Isabel. Based on the
September 2014 resounding court judgement in favor of AVQ, we
think that the appeal stands little chance of success.
Exploration and evaluation (A$M)
Corporate & Litigation (A$M)
Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%)
Funding duration at current burn (years)
Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares) **
Drilling - RAB (M) *
Drilling - RC/Diamond (M) *
Capital raisings (A$M)
Funding from JV partners (A$M)
Cash (A$M)
Cash backing (Ac/share)
Net asset backing (Ac/share)
* All drilling metres are RCR estimates. ** Assumes 1:15 share consolidation April 2015 (subject to s/h approval).
5.00
Year End September Dec-14a Mar-15F 2014a 2015F 2016F
0.4
1.65 2.10 3.86 7.75 6.60
0.86 1.00 9.14 3.90
66 68 30 67 57
0.1 0.3
3352.5 3605.4 3605.4 240.4 240.4
0 5,000 0 5,000 40,000
1,300 1,500 0 4,000 14,000
0.1 4.6 14.5 4.7 0.0
0 0 0 0 0
0.2 1.7 1.2 3.3 4.3
0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.8
0.1 0.3 0.1 5.6 9.4
EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 2
KEY PROJECTS
* Isabel granted, subject to appeal by Sumitomo. ^ SOE - State-Ow ned Entity
Early Expl Vietnam
Project
80% *
Ownership
72%
West Guadalcanal
Isabel Nickel Project *
porphyry
Metal
laterite
/Option Partner
JV
Status
Adv ExplNi-Co
SOE ^
Au-Ag
Type
Target Project
DSO
Route
Process
Au
Sol. Isl.
Location
100%
Early Expl
na
Sol. Isl.naepithermalna Early Expl
Cardross
Landowners
Quang Tri
porphyryna100%
Quang Binh 63%
naCu-Au-Ag-Zn
Au Vietnam
SOE ^
naporphyry
Aus (Qld)Mid Expl
COMPANY COMMENT
Overview: AVQ listed on the ASX in Nov ’06 with a Pacific Rim
focus. Its initial focus was on gold and base metals exploration
in North Queensland and the Sepon region in Vietnam. Since
2010 its primary focus has shifted towards the Solomon Islands
with the Isabel Nickel Project. It also holds other prospective
gold exploration ground near the Gold Ridge deposit on the
Island of West Guadalcanal, also in the Solomons.
History of the Isabel Nickel Project: Isabel has been known
about for over fifty years. International Nickel Company (INCO)
discovered the deposit in 1956. INCO spent over US$15M on
the digging of over 4,000 bulk sampling test pits, along with over
1,500 auger drill holes and feasibility studies. From 1991 to
1993, Kaiser Engineers undertook further exploration (including
test pits and testing of bulk samples) and outlined a (non-JORC
compliant) historical mineralised zone estimate of 159Mt
averaging 1.045% Ni and 0.06% Co, over two separate
deposits, to a depth of only about 6 metres. Since then the
project has been relatively un-touched.
Axiom’s Court Battle for Ownership: The Japanese giant
Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) spent millions challenging
Axiom’s 80% ownership of the project in a three year court
battle, which is clear indication that the project is of great
significance to such a major company. Axiom scored a
resounding win over SMM with judgement in the court battle
handed down on 24 September 2014. SMM has appealed the
ruling (to be heard from 26 May 2015), but we consider it has
little chance of success, given the initial ruling stating that
SMM’s actions were an abuse of the court process.
Axiom’s Strategy: AVQ has spent many years developing
strong relationships with the customary landowners including
forming a JV whereby the landowners have a 20% interest in
the Isabel Nickel Project. AVQ has developed key relationships
and demonstrated a strong commitment to social responsibility
The CEO is based in the Solomon Islands. He has an "open
door” policy which has put him close to the people, and this has
helped smooth the way for the government and community
support of all AVQ's projects in the Solomon Islands.
Size and Significance of Isabel Nickel Project: The original
159Mt @1.045% Ni non-JORC historical estimate of
mineralisation established by Kaiser Engineers was based on a
surface resource of shallow predominantly limonitic material to
an average depth of only ~6m. We understand that very little
drilling or test pitting extended below this depth. The initial
drilling results from AVQ’s resource confirmation program,
drilling deeper into the saprolitic zone below the limonitic zone
have confirmed that mineralisation continues into this deeper
zone and as expected the grades are significantly higher –
greater than 1.5% Ni in most of the deeper holes drilled (see
page 3). This grade increase is very significant for DSO pricing
and project economics. In addition, there are further areas of the
deposit that were not sampled by INCO or Kaiser in their
resource definition work, due to land access issues. From the
depth extensions indicated by recent drilling and further
resource areas undrilled, we believe that Isabel has the potential
to be a very large (>300Mt) high grade ore body similar to the
premium deposits in New Caledonia and Indonesia. Little
wonder that the Japanese giant Sumitomo put so much effort
and investment to try and grasp ownership of this project.
Getting Isabel into Production: AVQ will move as quickly as
possible to establish an initial ~2Mtpa DSO operation. First
production is targeted for late 2015. Project logistics are
straightforward with deep-water channel access close to the
deposit for shipping/barging. The potential resource spans two
separate islands (San Isabel and San Jorge) with a deep water
channel in between. No relocation of human settlements will
be required. AVQ is continuing drilling of selected higher
grade mineralised zones to confirm a modest initial mineable
reserve (e.g. 10-20Mt) on which a start-up DSO operation
could be established. Environmental permitting, application
for and granting of a mining lease, contractual negotiations
with customers and completion of an updated feasibility study
are now being addressed. Initial funding has come from an
A$5M strategic partnership with the Anitua Group. Further
project funding (probably loans from potential customers,
World Bank etc rather than equity) will be sourced in 2H15.
Larger Scale Development Options: An initial ~2Mtpa DSO
operation is likely to be the first small step in AVQ’s
development of the potentially major Isabel resource. The
next stages of development will be aimed at a major
expansion of production and introducing metallurgical
processing of the ore on site to increase the value-adding,
probably with an existing nickel player as a partner. We think
that this is a very sensible approach rather than trying to go it
alone. It will de-risk both technical and capital raising risk by
bringing in an established nickel producing partner as plant
owner and operator. All too often we see junior companies
trying to maintain full control and go it alone with large scale
projects, with little success.
Nickel and DSO Pricing: The nickel price and DSO prices
have eased significantly since the Indonesian export ban
caused a dramatic rise in mid-2014. Our analysis (see page
6) indicates that a significant recovery, particularly in DSO
prices, is likely in 2H15. The good news is that even
assuming current prices, we forecast strong profitability and
cashflow for AVQ’s proposed initial 2Mtpa DSO operation.
West Guadalcanal Project (WGP): An initial scout drilling
program (2,500m) of selected epithermal gold-silver targets at
the WGP started in 4Q14, as well as further trenching work.
The location has the right credentials - it is on a similar
structure to St Barbara’s (ASX:SBM) Gold Ridge operation in
the East part of Guadalcanal, which is based on a 2.06 Moz
gold resource. AVQ has defined a 1.5km long mineralised
zone in the East of the Taho prospect (see map page 7).
Vietnam and North Queensland Projects: Gold-focused
exploration in Vietnam (potential for Sepon style
mineralisation) and North Queensland (possible intrusion-
related gold systems) continues with a minimal level of
activity due to the priority given to the Solomons projects.
Corporate: AVQ is funding the current intensive Isabel
development program at Isabel through an A$5M cash
injection from strategic partner (and driller) Anitua Limited.
AVQ should receive a further A$4.8M in June from Sumitomo
(court costs recovery) which should see it through to the
project financing stage without a further equity raising. The
company intends to undertake a 15:1 share consolidation on
15 April 2015 (subject to shareholder approval).
Investment Comment: There is no doubt in our mind that
Isabel is a real “company maker” for AVQ – a quality project
that most mining juniors can only dream about. But we see
the AVQ share price reflecting only a fraction of the potential
value of Isabel largely due to Sumitomo’s desperate bid to
appeal the court judgement regarding ownership. We are
mining analysts, not legal analysts, but if, as we expect,
Sumitomo’s appeal is rejected by the courts in early June
2015, those who accumulate shares at current levels should
see an immediate handsome reward generated on their
investment in AVQ.
EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 3
Map showing location of Axiom’s Solomon Islands Projects
Source: Axiom Mining
Note: The Isabel Nickel Project (80% ownership by AVQ) consists of two extensive shallow
mineralised nickel laterite zones on the islands of Santa Isabel and San Jorge. AVQ also has a
100% stake in the West Guadalcanal gold-silver-copper epithermal exploration project,
approximately 30km west of St Barbara’s Gold Ridge Mine (ASX:SBM). It is in a prolific gold-
copper belt as indicated by other operating mines on the map.
The first set of results from AVQ’s confirmatory resource drilling of the Isabel Nickel
Project have confirmed higher grade nickel laterite zones (>1.5% Ni)
particularly in the (approx. 8-20m depth) saprolitic zone which was not fully
drilled by previous explorers (INCO and Kaiser Engineers). This signals tonnage
increases as well as higher grades for the eventual resource.
Hole ID Intersection1 Easting* Northing* RL EOH
ISD14-001 4.95m @1.06% Ni from 1.2m 0578426 9066114 73m 12.6m
ISD14-002 5.4m @ 0.91% Ni from surface 0578504 9066072 77m 13.0m
ISD14-003
20.7m @ 1.74% Ni from surface, including 12.45m
@ 2.28%Ni from 8.25m
0578786 9066164 123m 30.6m
ISD14-004
14.4m @ 1.94% Ni from 1.5m, including 7.65m @
2.67% Ni from 8.25m
0578808 9066150 131m 30.0m
ISD14-005
18.25m @ 1.63% Ni from 4.75m, including
13.75m @ 1.83% Ni from 9.25m
578831 9066132 148m 26.8m
ISD15-001
7.5m @ 1.26% Ni from surface, including 3.0m @
1.37% Ni from 4.5m
578780 9066195 120m 20.1m
ISD15-002
6.6m @ 1.19% Ni from surface, including 4.6m @
1.34%Ni from 2m
578906 9066094 150m 25.4m
ISD15-003 7.6m @ 0.99% Ni from surface 578906 9066134 160m 30.0
ISD15-004 13.7m @ 1.02% from 1.5m 581055 9065712 150m 20.0m
ISD15-005
16.5m @ 1.49% Ni from surface, including 10m @
1.85% Ni from 6.5m
581025 9065726 145m 16.5m
ISD15-006
16m @ 1.66% Ni from 0.5m, including
11.4m @ 1.92%Ni from 5.1m
581050 9065900 140m 18.5m
ISD15-0072
12.6m at 1.73% Ni from 1.0m, including 4.6m @
2.24% Ni from 9m
581050 9065900 140m 29.0
ISD15-008
13.7m @ 1.13% Ni from 2.5m, including 10.9m @
1.16% Ni from 5.3m
581050 9065800 135m 18.1m
ISD15-009
15.3m @ 1.27% Ni from 1.0m, including 7.8m @
1.62% Ni from 8.5m
581050 9065750 130m 17.6m
ISD15-010
7.5m @ 1.12% Ni from 3.5m, including
3.5m @ 1.16% Ni from 7.5m
581050 9065675 125m 12.0m
EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 4
The drilling map below shows drilling locations for the Kolorosi Ridge drilling. Of note
are the large number of previous drill hole locations from the INCO-Kaiser exploration.
AVQ’s drilling to date has clearly just “scratched the surface”. It is encouraging that
all five of the central holes recently drilled (from ISD15-001 to ISD15-002 on the
map) intersected higher grade saprolites from 4.5m to 9.25m below surface. Drilling
is continuing.
Source: Axiom Mining
Source: Axiom Mining
The second series of
shallow drill holes
(five holes to date)
have been focused
on the Havihua
Ridge. Three of the
six reported
intersections
indicated grades of
>1.5% Ni in the
lower saprolite zone.
EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 5
Schematic showing typical wet tropical laterite profile and highlighting drilling results
from AVQ’s recent drilling.
Source: Axiom Mining
The project logistics at the Isabel Nickel Project are very favourable for a low
capex initial operation producing approximately 2Mtpa of direct shipping ore.
The initial Kolorosi Ridge orebody likely to be mined is shallow (surface
outcropping) and close to the proposed ore loading facility for barge transfer to
50,000t capacity vessels moored in the deep water channel. Similar logistics
exist at the other orebodies.
Source: Axiom Mining
EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 6
Activities are now getting underway after the >3 year delay resulting from the court
injunction. The first step will be to drill out the high grade target zone at Kolorosi
Ridge to generate 10-20Mt of reserves to underpin the initial start-up 2Mtpa DSO
operation. AVQ is targeting first shipments late in 4Q15 after the anticipated granting
of a mining licence in mid-2015.
Source: Axiom Mining
DIRECT SHIPPING ORE PRICES
Nickel Ore – DSO – Price Chart (US$/t)
Source: Axiom Mining, Ferroalloy.net
DSO prices have stabilised after the mid-year 2014 DSO price spike flowing from high nickel prices and the
Indonesian export ban. The price of direct shipping nickel ore into China is still about twice what it was in
January 2014. We expect prices for 1.5% Ni ore (blue line) to further strengthen to at least US$60/t in
2H15 for the following reasons:
• Chinese nickel pig iron producers have been destocking. Inventories of ore at Chinese ports are
down about 20% since the end of November 2014.
• The Indonesian Government recently confirmed that the export ban will not be lifted.
• We expect the nickel metal markets will move into deficit in 2H15 leading to stronger nickel prices.
• DSO prices have stabilised and resumed a slight upwards trend.
Note that the price
premium for 1.8% Ni
ore relative to 1.5% Ni
ore is at least
US$20/tonne. This
puts into perspective
the significance of
higher grade
mineralisation
indicated at >8m depth
in the recent drilling.
There is every chance
that AVQ could be
shipping 1.8% Ni DSO.
EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 7
BENCHMARK VALUATION - A LISTED NICKEL DSO PRODUCER (PSE:NIKL)
West Guadalcanal Gold Project: Trenching at Taho has defined a 1.5km long gold
mineralised zone. Trenches uncovered large high grade pods (e.g. trench HVTC067:
21m @ 2.96 g/t, including 4m @ 13.59 g/t Au).
Source: Axiom Mining
Share Price (PHP): * 27.90
Share Price (US$) 0.62
Share on Issue (M): 3796
Market Cap (US$M) 2367
Annual DSO Production (CY14) (Mt): ** 17.9
Market Cap per Mt DSO produced annually (US$M /Mtpa): 132.2
* Share price as at 19 March 2015, exchange rate US$/PHP= 44.75
** Production is stated in million wet metric tonnes per annum.
Implied Value of AVQ 2Mtpa Initial DSO operation
Implied value of 2Mtpa DSO Production (US$m): 264.4
Implied value of 2Mtpa DSO Production (A$m)*: 311.1
* A$/US$=0.85 long term
A$m cents/share
Implied value 1.6 Mtpa (AVQ equity) - 30% risk discount 174.2 0.048
Implied value 1.6 Mtpa (AVQ equity) - 50% risk discount 124.4 0.035
Implied value 1.6 Mtpa (AVQ equity) - 70% risk discount 74.7 0.021
Nickel Asia Corporation PSE:NIKLNickel Asia Corp. is currently
capitalised at ~US$2.4bn and
shipped 17.9Mt of DSO in 2014. The
market cap ratio is US$132M per
annual million tonnes shipped.
Applying this ratio to AVQ’s potential
2Mtpa initial production (1.6Mtpa
AVQ equity), and applying a 50%
risk discount suggests a potential
A$124.4M market cap target for AVQ
(i.e. A$0.035/share). This does not
include future value-added
production expansion potential.
NIKL had total laterite resources of
428Mt (Dec ’13). The Market
Cap:resources ratio is US$5.53/t. If
AVQ proves up resources of just
100Mt (80% equity) then applying
the same ratio implies a benchmark
US$442M (A$574M) market
capitalisation (A$0.16/share).
EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 8
CORPORATE VALUATION AND DSO PROJECT SUMMARY
Note: Our base case valuation of A$0.050 per share assumes 1.5%Ni DSO product and US$60.00/tonne DSO
pricing for the initial 2Mtpa operation. These valuation parameters are considered conservative since
recent drilling has indicated a strong possibility that 1.8% Ni product could be shipped. In this case we
would apply US$80/tonne pricing and the valuation increases to A$0.076/share.
NAV Risk
Risk Adjusted
Equity NAV Factor Value
(%) (A$M) (%) (A$M)
Assumptions
Nickel Laterite DSO Price (CIF China) : US$/wet tonne 60 60 40 50 70 80
Long Term Exchange Rate : A$/US$ 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85
Development Projects
Isabel Ni Project (Solomons) 2Mtpa DSO 1
: NPV @ 10% 80% 106.0 70% 59.4 14.0 30.2 88.5 117.6
Isabel Ni Project - Long Term Expansion Potential 2
: Comp. with NIKL 80% 552.0 30% 132.5 31.2 110.4 154.6 176.6
Exploration Projects
West Guadalcanal Gold Project : RCR est. 100% 6.0 50% 3.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.0
Vietnam Exploration Properties : RCR est. 72%/63% 3.0 50% 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4
Queensland Exploration Properties : RCR est. 100% 3.0 50% 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.0
Sub-total Isabel & Other Exploration Projects 670 197.4 49.0 145.3 249.6 301.7
Assets
+ Cash (Mar '15F) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
+ Tax losses (Mar '15F) 3
20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5
Liabilities
- Corporate Overheads : NPV @ 10% 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4
- Interest Bearing Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
- Corporate - convertible Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
AVQ Net Assets 666.8 194.2 45.8 142.1 246.3 298.5
Ordinary Shares on Issue (M) 3605.4 3605.4 3605.4 3605.4 3605.4 3605.4
Fully Diluted Shares (M) 4043.0 4043.0 4043.0 4043.0 4043.0 4043.0
Cash on Option Conversion 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7
AVQ Net Asset Value per share : A$/share 0.185 0.054 0.013 0.039 0.068 0.083
AVQ Net Asset Value Diluted : A$/share dil 0.167 0.050 0.013 0.037 0.063 0.076
Valuation Notes
1 See DSO Project assumptions in the table below . Assumes initial 5 year operation at 2Mtpa. NPV risk-discounted by 30% due to early stage project status.
2 Future Production Base Case: Expanded 5Mtpa assumed, valued at US$132/Mtpa (current PSE:NIKL production valuation), discounted by 70%.
3 Assumes 30% tax rate
AXIOM MINING LIMITED - CORPORATE VALUATION
Risk-discounted project valuations. Shows base case and sensitivity to nickel laterite prices.
Adjusted
Nickel Laterite Ore Sensitivity
(A$M)
ISABEL NICKEL PROJECT SUMMARY *
MINEABLE RESOURCE ESTIMATES
DSO Ore Nickel Iron Contained
Mt % % kt Ni
Initial high grade DSO ore 10.5 1.50 20.00 157.5
Note: This assumed reserve only relates to an initial small scale 5 year DSO operation.
We expect an eventual resource >100Mt to be confirmed with further drilling.
MINING METHOD Shallow open pit - free digging
Open pit strip ratio: zero pre-stripping required - ore is outcropping at surface.
PROCESS METHOD Direct shipping of laterite ore
PRODUCTION RATE :Mtpa ore 2.0 Wet metric tonnes
CAPITAL COSTS :US$M 30.0 Capex to establish shallow mining and ship loading
% 5.0 Sustaining capital (% of initial capex)
RECOVERY - NICKEL :% 100 Direct shipping ore - no recovery factor applied
LOM AVERAGE OPERATING COSTS (C1) :US$/t 15.00 Mining and loading costs
:US$/t 3.00 Overheads
:US$/t 17.00 Shipping costs to N China (basis 50,000t shipments)
TAX (SOLOMON ISL) :% 30.0 Probable 3-5 year tax holiday for export projects
ROYALTY (SOLOMON ISL) :% 3.0 Mines and Minerals Amendement Bill (2014)
MINE LIFE :Years 5 Based on initial fast track DSO operation only
COMMISSION DATE :Quarter 4Q15 Rapid development timetable anticipated
Assumed Life of Mine Reserves
* These figures are preliminary in nature and are intended to provide only a general indication of project potential scale and economic robustness. The assumptions above have been inputted into our base case
financial model for the proposed initial DSO operation at Isabel.
INITIAL FAST TRACK DSO MINING AND SHIPPING - 5 YEAR MINE LIFE
EQUITY RESEARCH
RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright©
2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 9
DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER
Important Information
Resource Capital Research Pty Limited (referred to as “we”, “our”, or “RCR” herein) ACN 111
622 489 holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFS Licence number 325340). General
advice is provided by RCR’s Authorised Representatives Dr Tony Parry (Authorised Representative
number 328842) and Murray Brooker (Authorised Representative number 407208). The FSG is
available at www.rcresearch.com.au. All references to currency are in Australian dollars unless
otherwise noted.
This report and its contents are intended to be used or viewed only by persons resident and
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may lawfully be offered. The information provided in this report is not intended for distribution to, or
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This report and its contents are not intended to constitute a solicitation for the purchase of
securities or an offer of securities. The information provided in this report has been prepared
without taking account of your particular objectives, financial situation or needs. You should, before
acting on the information provided in this report, consider the appropriateness of the purchase or sale
of the securities of the companies that are the subject of this report having regard to these matters
and, if appropriate, seek professional financial, investment and taxation advice. RCR does not
guarantee the performance of any investment discussed or recommended in this report. Any
information in this report relating to the distribution history or performance history of the securities of
the companies that are the subject of this report, should not be taken as an indication of the future
value or performance of the relevant securities.
In preparing this report, RCR analysts have relied upon certain information provided by
management of the companies that are the subject of this report or otherwise made publicly
available by such companies. The information presented and opinions expressed herein are
given as of the date hereof and are subject to change. We hereby disclaim any obligation to
advise you of any change after the date hereof in any matter set forth in this report. THE
INFORMATION PRESENTED, WHILE OBTAINED FROM SOURCES WE BELIEVE RELIABLE, IS
CHECKED BUT NOT GUARANTEED AGAINST ERRORS OR OMISSIONS AND WE MAKE NO
WARRANTY OR REPRESENTATION, EXPRESSED OR IMPLIED, AND DISCLAIM AND NEGATE
ALL OTHER WARRANTIES OR LIABILITY CONCERNING THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS OR
RELIABILITY OF, OR ANY FAILURE TO UPDATE, ANY CONTENT OR INFORMATION HEREIN.
This report and the information filed on which it is based may include estimates and
projections which constitute forward looking statements that express an expectation or belief
as to future events, results or returns. No guarantee of future events, results or returns is
given or implied by RCR. Estimates and projections contained herein, whether or not our own, are
based on assumptions that we believe to be reasonable at the time of publication, however, such
forward-looking statements are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors which could cause
actual results to differ materially from the estimates and projections provided to RCR or contained
within this report.
This report may, from time to time, contain information or material obtained from outside sources with
the permission of the original author or links to web sites or references to products, services or
publications other than those of RCR. The use or inclusion of such information, material, links or
references does not imply our endorsement or approval thereof, nor do we warrant, in any manner,
the accuracy of completeness of any information presented therein.
RCR, its affiliates and their respective officers, directors and employees may hold positions in the
securities of the companies featured in this report and may purchase and/or sell them from time to
time and RCR and its affiliates may also from time to time perform investment banking or other
services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, entities mentioned in this report.
Axiom Mining Limited commissioned RCR to compile this report. In consideration, RCR received from
the company a cash consultancy fee of less than $15,000. In addition, the company paid recent site
visit travel expenses to the Solomon Islands for an RCR representative. RCR may receive referral
fees from issuing companies or their advisors in respect of investors that RCR refers to companies
looking to raise capital. Those fees vary, but are generally between 0 - 1% of the value of capital
raised from referrals made by RCR. At the date of this report, neither RCR, nor any of its associates,
hold any interests or entitlements in shares mentioned in this report with the exception that either or
both of John Wilson (either directly or through Resource Capital Investments Pty Limited (RCI)), or
RCI, as trustee of the Resource Capital Investments Fund owns shares in BHP Billiton.
Analyst Certification: All observations, conclusions and opinions expressed in this report reflect the
personal views of RCR analysts and no part of the analyst’s or RCR’s compensation was, is, or will
be, directly or indirectly related to specific recommendations or views expressed in the report.
Officers, directors, consultants, employees and independent contractors of RCR are prohibited from
trading in the securities of U.S. companies that are, or are expected to be, the subject of research
reports or other investment advice transmitted to RCR clients for a blackout window of 14 days
extending before and after the date such report is transmitted to clients or released to the market.
Cautionary Note to U.S. Investors Concerning Estimates of Measured, Indicated and Inferred
Resources: RCR publishes mineral resources based on standards recognised and required under
securities legislation where listed mining and exploration companies make their exchange filings and
uses the terms “measured", "indicated" and "inferred" mineral resources. U.S. investors are advised
that while such terms are recognised and required under foreign securities legislation, the SEC allows
disclosure only of mineral deposits that can be economically and legally extracted. United States
investors are cautioned not to assume that all or any part of measured, indicated or inferred resources
can be converted into reserves or economically or legally mined. We recommend that US investors
consult Securities and Exchange Commission Industry Guide 7 – “Description of Property by Issuers
Engaged or to Be Engaged in Significant Mining Operations” for further information about the use of
defined terms and the presentation of information included in this report.
Source: IMX
CONTACT
Resource Capital Research
ACN 111 622 489
Level 21
68 Pitt Street
Sydney NSW 2000
T +612 9439 1919
E info@rcresearch.com.au
www.rcresearch.com.au

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Undervalued nickel laterite developer : Axiom Mining (ASX:AVQ)

  • 1. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 1 INVESTMENT POINTS ♦ Isabel is world scale. Previous work (INCO, Kaiser Engineers) at Isabel gave an estimate of mineralisation (non JORC compliant) of 159Mt @1.05% Ni and 0.06% Co (equivalent to 1.6Mt of contained nickel) to a depth of only ~6m. ♦ AVQ’s initial drilling has indicated prevalence of higher grade saprolitic ore (>1.5% Ni) below 8m depth. This suggests potential for significantly higher tonnage and better grades than the INCO-Kaiser estimates. ♦ AVQ is aiming for first production in late 4Q15 with ~2Mtpa direct shipping ore (DSO) operation. Discussions with project partners/funders underway. ♦ A 2Mtpa DSO operation would give Axiom a low capex (~US$25-35M) fast track route to production. On our projections the project is robust generating strong cashflow (forecast ~A$50Mpa assuming US$60/t DSO price) and laying the foundations for a larger scale ore upgrading project. ♦ The nickel price (and DSO prices) are forecast to move into an uptrend in 2H15 due to looming supply deficits. ♦ Our base case valuation for AVQ of A$0.050/share is based on risk- discounted scenario of initial DSO production from Isabel at 1.5% Ni. Our medium term target (6 months) is A$0.035/share assuming Sumitomo is unsuccessful in its appeal against the court ruling. ♦ Assuming 1.8%Ni DSO product raises our valuation to A$0.076/share (due to increased DSO product value from US$60/t to US$80/t). ♦ Our valuation is underpinned by benchmarking listed DSO producer: Asia Nickel Corp – US$2.4bn market cap = US$132M per Mtpa DSO production. AVQ is currently capitalised at ~US$31M. ♦ Six month share price catalysts include likely dismissal of SMM appeal against the court ruling and near term cash injection (~A$4.8M) from court costs claim, further high grade Isabel drilling results, anticipated positive milestones in Isabel Project financing/partnering. EXPLORATION AND FINANCIAL FORECASTS 23 MARCH 2015 SOLOMON ISLANDS, VIETNAM, AUSTRALIA (QLD) NICKEL-COBALT, GOLD, SILVER, BASE METALS ADVANCED EXPLORATION EXCHANGE: ASX:AVQ CAPITAL PROFILE DIRECTORS Stephen Williams (Non Exec Chairman) Ryan Mount (CEO and Managing Director) Mr Ryan Mount CEO and Managing Director Tel: +(61) 7 3319 4100 Newstead, QLD, Australia Tel: +67 7 29877 Honiara, Solomon Islands www.axiom-mining.com Analyst: Dr Tony Parry tonyparry@rcresearch.com.au 52 week range (A$/share) 0.032 to Debt (A$M) - Mar '15F Enterprise value (A$M) Avg monthlyvolume (M) Cash (A$M) - Mar '15F Price/Cash (x) Price/Book (x) Listed companyoptions: Share price (A$) 0.011 0.008 Number of shares (M) 3605.4 Options and warrants (M) 437.7 Convertible notes (M) * 0.00 Fully diluted * (M) 4043.0 Market capitalisation (undiluted) (A$M) 39.7 0.0 37.9 Major shareholders: Drake Private Investments (7.5%), Anitua Ltd (6.9%), Admark Investments P/L (3.6%) 262.5 1.7 22.7 4.0 No 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 SharePrice($/Share) AVQ – Axiom Mining Limited Limited Source: Commsec AXIOM MINING LIMITED Axiom is focused on low capex DSO production in 4Q15 at the Isabel Nickel Project (80% AVQ) – potentially one of the Pacific’s largest and most attractive laterite deposits. Share Price: A$0.011 Recommendation: Speculative Buy Excellent recent drilling results have indicated a strong likelihood of premium grades (>1.5% Ni) at Isabel, which will strongly enhance project economics and support project financing. The current share price is 78% below our base case valuation of A$0.050/share (assuming 2Mtpa initial production), a massive discount amplified by investor concerns over a court appeal by Japanese giant Sumitomo over ownership of Isabel. Based on the September 2014 resounding court judgement in favor of AVQ, we think that the appeal stands little chance of success. Exploration and evaluation (A$M) Corporate & Litigation (A$M) Exploration/(Expl.+ Corporate) (%) Funding duration at current burn (years) Shares on issue (pr end) (m shares) ** Drilling - RAB (M) * Drilling - RC/Diamond (M) * Capital raisings (A$M) Funding from JV partners (A$M) Cash (A$M) Cash backing (Ac/share) Net asset backing (Ac/share) * All drilling metres are RCR estimates. ** Assumes 1:15 share consolidation April 2015 (subject to s/h approval). 5.00 Year End September Dec-14a Mar-15F 2014a 2015F 2016F 0.4 1.65 2.10 3.86 7.75 6.60 0.86 1.00 9.14 3.90 66 68 30 67 57 0.1 0.3 3352.5 3605.4 3605.4 240.4 240.4 0 5,000 0 5,000 40,000 1,300 1,500 0 4,000 14,000 0.1 4.6 14.5 4.7 0.0 0 0 0 0 0 0.2 1.7 1.2 3.3 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.8 0.1 0.3 0.1 5.6 9.4
  • 2. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 2 KEY PROJECTS * Isabel granted, subject to appeal by Sumitomo. ^ SOE - State-Ow ned Entity Early Expl Vietnam Project 80% * Ownership 72% West Guadalcanal Isabel Nickel Project * porphyry Metal laterite /Option Partner JV Status Adv ExplNi-Co SOE ^ Au-Ag Type Target Project DSO Route Process Au Sol. Isl. Location 100% Early Expl na Sol. Isl.naepithermalna Early Expl Cardross Landowners Quang Tri porphyryna100% Quang Binh 63% naCu-Au-Ag-Zn Au Vietnam SOE ^ naporphyry Aus (Qld)Mid Expl COMPANY COMMENT Overview: AVQ listed on the ASX in Nov ’06 with a Pacific Rim focus. Its initial focus was on gold and base metals exploration in North Queensland and the Sepon region in Vietnam. Since 2010 its primary focus has shifted towards the Solomon Islands with the Isabel Nickel Project. It also holds other prospective gold exploration ground near the Gold Ridge deposit on the Island of West Guadalcanal, also in the Solomons. History of the Isabel Nickel Project: Isabel has been known about for over fifty years. International Nickel Company (INCO) discovered the deposit in 1956. INCO spent over US$15M on the digging of over 4,000 bulk sampling test pits, along with over 1,500 auger drill holes and feasibility studies. From 1991 to 1993, Kaiser Engineers undertook further exploration (including test pits and testing of bulk samples) and outlined a (non-JORC compliant) historical mineralised zone estimate of 159Mt averaging 1.045% Ni and 0.06% Co, over two separate deposits, to a depth of only about 6 metres. Since then the project has been relatively un-touched. Axiom’s Court Battle for Ownership: The Japanese giant Sumitomo Metal Mining (SMM) spent millions challenging Axiom’s 80% ownership of the project in a three year court battle, which is clear indication that the project is of great significance to such a major company. Axiom scored a resounding win over SMM with judgement in the court battle handed down on 24 September 2014. SMM has appealed the ruling (to be heard from 26 May 2015), but we consider it has little chance of success, given the initial ruling stating that SMM’s actions were an abuse of the court process. Axiom’s Strategy: AVQ has spent many years developing strong relationships with the customary landowners including forming a JV whereby the landowners have a 20% interest in the Isabel Nickel Project. AVQ has developed key relationships and demonstrated a strong commitment to social responsibility The CEO is based in the Solomon Islands. He has an "open door” policy which has put him close to the people, and this has helped smooth the way for the government and community support of all AVQ's projects in the Solomon Islands. Size and Significance of Isabel Nickel Project: The original 159Mt @1.045% Ni non-JORC historical estimate of mineralisation established by Kaiser Engineers was based on a surface resource of shallow predominantly limonitic material to an average depth of only ~6m. We understand that very little drilling or test pitting extended below this depth. The initial drilling results from AVQ’s resource confirmation program, drilling deeper into the saprolitic zone below the limonitic zone have confirmed that mineralisation continues into this deeper zone and as expected the grades are significantly higher – greater than 1.5% Ni in most of the deeper holes drilled (see page 3). This grade increase is very significant for DSO pricing and project economics. In addition, there are further areas of the deposit that were not sampled by INCO or Kaiser in their resource definition work, due to land access issues. From the depth extensions indicated by recent drilling and further resource areas undrilled, we believe that Isabel has the potential to be a very large (>300Mt) high grade ore body similar to the premium deposits in New Caledonia and Indonesia. Little wonder that the Japanese giant Sumitomo put so much effort and investment to try and grasp ownership of this project. Getting Isabel into Production: AVQ will move as quickly as possible to establish an initial ~2Mtpa DSO operation. First production is targeted for late 2015. Project logistics are straightforward with deep-water channel access close to the deposit for shipping/barging. The potential resource spans two separate islands (San Isabel and San Jorge) with a deep water channel in between. No relocation of human settlements will be required. AVQ is continuing drilling of selected higher grade mineralised zones to confirm a modest initial mineable reserve (e.g. 10-20Mt) on which a start-up DSO operation could be established. Environmental permitting, application for and granting of a mining lease, contractual negotiations with customers and completion of an updated feasibility study are now being addressed. Initial funding has come from an A$5M strategic partnership with the Anitua Group. Further project funding (probably loans from potential customers, World Bank etc rather than equity) will be sourced in 2H15. Larger Scale Development Options: An initial ~2Mtpa DSO operation is likely to be the first small step in AVQ’s development of the potentially major Isabel resource. The next stages of development will be aimed at a major expansion of production and introducing metallurgical processing of the ore on site to increase the value-adding, probably with an existing nickel player as a partner. We think that this is a very sensible approach rather than trying to go it alone. It will de-risk both technical and capital raising risk by bringing in an established nickel producing partner as plant owner and operator. All too often we see junior companies trying to maintain full control and go it alone with large scale projects, with little success. Nickel and DSO Pricing: The nickel price and DSO prices have eased significantly since the Indonesian export ban caused a dramatic rise in mid-2014. Our analysis (see page 6) indicates that a significant recovery, particularly in DSO prices, is likely in 2H15. The good news is that even assuming current prices, we forecast strong profitability and cashflow for AVQ’s proposed initial 2Mtpa DSO operation. West Guadalcanal Project (WGP): An initial scout drilling program (2,500m) of selected epithermal gold-silver targets at the WGP started in 4Q14, as well as further trenching work. The location has the right credentials - it is on a similar structure to St Barbara’s (ASX:SBM) Gold Ridge operation in the East part of Guadalcanal, which is based on a 2.06 Moz gold resource. AVQ has defined a 1.5km long mineralised zone in the East of the Taho prospect (see map page 7). Vietnam and North Queensland Projects: Gold-focused exploration in Vietnam (potential for Sepon style mineralisation) and North Queensland (possible intrusion- related gold systems) continues with a minimal level of activity due to the priority given to the Solomons projects. Corporate: AVQ is funding the current intensive Isabel development program at Isabel through an A$5M cash injection from strategic partner (and driller) Anitua Limited. AVQ should receive a further A$4.8M in June from Sumitomo (court costs recovery) which should see it through to the project financing stage without a further equity raising. The company intends to undertake a 15:1 share consolidation on 15 April 2015 (subject to shareholder approval). Investment Comment: There is no doubt in our mind that Isabel is a real “company maker” for AVQ – a quality project that most mining juniors can only dream about. But we see the AVQ share price reflecting only a fraction of the potential value of Isabel largely due to Sumitomo’s desperate bid to appeal the court judgement regarding ownership. We are mining analysts, not legal analysts, but if, as we expect, Sumitomo’s appeal is rejected by the courts in early June 2015, those who accumulate shares at current levels should see an immediate handsome reward generated on their investment in AVQ.
  • 3. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 3 Map showing location of Axiom’s Solomon Islands Projects Source: Axiom Mining Note: The Isabel Nickel Project (80% ownership by AVQ) consists of two extensive shallow mineralised nickel laterite zones on the islands of Santa Isabel and San Jorge. AVQ also has a 100% stake in the West Guadalcanal gold-silver-copper epithermal exploration project, approximately 30km west of St Barbara’s Gold Ridge Mine (ASX:SBM). It is in a prolific gold- copper belt as indicated by other operating mines on the map. The first set of results from AVQ’s confirmatory resource drilling of the Isabel Nickel Project have confirmed higher grade nickel laterite zones (>1.5% Ni) particularly in the (approx. 8-20m depth) saprolitic zone which was not fully drilled by previous explorers (INCO and Kaiser Engineers). This signals tonnage increases as well as higher grades for the eventual resource. Hole ID Intersection1 Easting* Northing* RL EOH ISD14-001 4.95m @1.06% Ni from 1.2m 0578426 9066114 73m 12.6m ISD14-002 5.4m @ 0.91% Ni from surface 0578504 9066072 77m 13.0m ISD14-003 20.7m @ 1.74% Ni from surface, including 12.45m @ 2.28%Ni from 8.25m 0578786 9066164 123m 30.6m ISD14-004 14.4m @ 1.94% Ni from 1.5m, including 7.65m @ 2.67% Ni from 8.25m 0578808 9066150 131m 30.0m ISD14-005 18.25m @ 1.63% Ni from 4.75m, including 13.75m @ 1.83% Ni from 9.25m 578831 9066132 148m 26.8m ISD15-001 7.5m @ 1.26% Ni from surface, including 3.0m @ 1.37% Ni from 4.5m 578780 9066195 120m 20.1m ISD15-002 6.6m @ 1.19% Ni from surface, including 4.6m @ 1.34%Ni from 2m 578906 9066094 150m 25.4m ISD15-003 7.6m @ 0.99% Ni from surface 578906 9066134 160m 30.0 ISD15-004 13.7m @ 1.02% from 1.5m 581055 9065712 150m 20.0m ISD15-005 16.5m @ 1.49% Ni from surface, including 10m @ 1.85% Ni from 6.5m 581025 9065726 145m 16.5m ISD15-006 16m @ 1.66% Ni from 0.5m, including 11.4m @ 1.92%Ni from 5.1m 581050 9065900 140m 18.5m ISD15-0072 12.6m at 1.73% Ni from 1.0m, including 4.6m @ 2.24% Ni from 9m 581050 9065900 140m 29.0 ISD15-008 13.7m @ 1.13% Ni from 2.5m, including 10.9m @ 1.16% Ni from 5.3m 581050 9065800 135m 18.1m ISD15-009 15.3m @ 1.27% Ni from 1.0m, including 7.8m @ 1.62% Ni from 8.5m 581050 9065750 130m 17.6m ISD15-010 7.5m @ 1.12% Ni from 3.5m, including 3.5m @ 1.16% Ni from 7.5m 581050 9065675 125m 12.0m
  • 4. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 4 The drilling map below shows drilling locations for the Kolorosi Ridge drilling. Of note are the large number of previous drill hole locations from the INCO-Kaiser exploration. AVQ’s drilling to date has clearly just “scratched the surface”. It is encouraging that all five of the central holes recently drilled (from ISD15-001 to ISD15-002 on the map) intersected higher grade saprolites from 4.5m to 9.25m below surface. Drilling is continuing. Source: Axiom Mining Source: Axiom Mining The second series of shallow drill holes (five holes to date) have been focused on the Havihua Ridge. Three of the six reported intersections indicated grades of >1.5% Ni in the lower saprolite zone.
  • 5. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 5 Schematic showing typical wet tropical laterite profile and highlighting drilling results from AVQ’s recent drilling. Source: Axiom Mining The project logistics at the Isabel Nickel Project are very favourable for a low capex initial operation producing approximately 2Mtpa of direct shipping ore. The initial Kolorosi Ridge orebody likely to be mined is shallow (surface outcropping) and close to the proposed ore loading facility for barge transfer to 50,000t capacity vessels moored in the deep water channel. Similar logistics exist at the other orebodies. Source: Axiom Mining
  • 6. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 6 Activities are now getting underway after the >3 year delay resulting from the court injunction. The first step will be to drill out the high grade target zone at Kolorosi Ridge to generate 10-20Mt of reserves to underpin the initial start-up 2Mtpa DSO operation. AVQ is targeting first shipments late in 4Q15 after the anticipated granting of a mining licence in mid-2015. Source: Axiom Mining DIRECT SHIPPING ORE PRICES Nickel Ore – DSO – Price Chart (US$/t) Source: Axiom Mining, Ferroalloy.net DSO prices have stabilised after the mid-year 2014 DSO price spike flowing from high nickel prices and the Indonesian export ban. The price of direct shipping nickel ore into China is still about twice what it was in January 2014. We expect prices for 1.5% Ni ore (blue line) to further strengthen to at least US$60/t in 2H15 for the following reasons: • Chinese nickel pig iron producers have been destocking. Inventories of ore at Chinese ports are down about 20% since the end of November 2014. • The Indonesian Government recently confirmed that the export ban will not be lifted. • We expect the nickel metal markets will move into deficit in 2H15 leading to stronger nickel prices. • DSO prices have stabilised and resumed a slight upwards trend. Note that the price premium for 1.8% Ni ore relative to 1.5% Ni ore is at least US$20/tonne. This puts into perspective the significance of higher grade mineralisation indicated at >8m depth in the recent drilling. There is every chance that AVQ could be shipping 1.8% Ni DSO.
  • 7. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 7 BENCHMARK VALUATION - A LISTED NICKEL DSO PRODUCER (PSE:NIKL) West Guadalcanal Gold Project: Trenching at Taho has defined a 1.5km long gold mineralised zone. Trenches uncovered large high grade pods (e.g. trench HVTC067: 21m @ 2.96 g/t, including 4m @ 13.59 g/t Au). Source: Axiom Mining Share Price (PHP): * 27.90 Share Price (US$) 0.62 Share on Issue (M): 3796 Market Cap (US$M) 2367 Annual DSO Production (CY14) (Mt): ** 17.9 Market Cap per Mt DSO produced annually (US$M /Mtpa): 132.2 * Share price as at 19 March 2015, exchange rate US$/PHP= 44.75 ** Production is stated in million wet metric tonnes per annum. Implied Value of AVQ 2Mtpa Initial DSO operation Implied value of 2Mtpa DSO Production (US$m): 264.4 Implied value of 2Mtpa DSO Production (A$m)*: 311.1 * A$/US$=0.85 long term A$m cents/share Implied value 1.6 Mtpa (AVQ equity) - 30% risk discount 174.2 0.048 Implied value 1.6 Mtpa (AVQ equity) - 50% risk discount 124.4 0.035 Implied value 1.6 Mtpa (AVQ equity) - 70% risk discount 74.7 0.021 Nickel Asia Corporation PSE:NIKLNickel Asia Corp. is currently capitalised at ~US$2.4bn and shipped 17.9Mt of DSO in 2014. The market cap ratio is US$132M per annual million tonnes shipped. Applying this ratio to AVQ’s potential 2Mtpa initial production (1.6Mtpa AVQ equity), and applying a 50% risk discount suggests a potential A$124.4M market cap target for AVQ (i.e. A$0.035/share). This does not include future value-added production expansion potential. NIKL had total laterite resources of 428Mt (Dec ’13). The Market Cap:resources ratio is US$5.53/t. If AVQ proves up resources of just 100Mt (80% equity) then applying the same ratio implies a benchmark US$442M (A$574M) market capitalisation (A$0.16/share).
  • 8. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 8 CORPORATE VALUATION AND DSO PROJECT SUMMARY Note: Our base case valuation of A$0.050 per share assumes 1.5%Ni DSO product and US$60.00/tonne DSO pricing for the initial 2Mtpa operation. These valuation parameters are considered conservative since recent drilling has indicated a strong possibility that 1.8% Ni product could be shipped. In this case we would apply US$80/tonne pricing and the valuation increases to A$0.076/share. NAV Risk Risk Adjusted Equity NAV Factor Value (%) (A$M) (%) (A$M) Assumptions Nickel Laterite DSO Price (CIF China) : US$/wet tonne 60 60 40 50 70 80 Long Term Exchange Rate : A$/US$ 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 0.85 Development Projects Isabel Ni Project (Solomons) 2Mtpa DSO 1 : NPV @ 10% 80% 106.0 70% 59.4 14.0 30.2 88.5 117.6 Isabel Ni Project - Long Term Expansion Potential 2 : Comp. with NIKL 80% 552.0 30% 132.5 31.2 110.4 154.6 176.6 Exploration Projects West Guadalcanal Gold Project : RCR est. 100% 6.0 50% 3.0 2.0 2.5 3.5 4.0 Vietnam Exploration Properties : RCR est. 72%/63% 3.0 50% 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.4 Queensland Exploration Properties : RCR est. 100% 3.0 50% 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.8 2.0 Sub-total Isabel & Other Exploration Projects 670 197.4 49.0 145.3 249.6 301.7 Assets + Cash (Mar '15F) 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 + Tax losses (Mar '15F) 3 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 Liabilities - Corporate Overheads : NPV @ 10% 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 - Interest Bearing Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 - Corporate - convertible Debt 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 AVQ Net Assets 666.8 194.2 45.8 142.1 246.3 298.5 Ordinary Shares on Issue (M) 3605.4 3605.4 3605.4 3605.4 3605.4 3605.4 Fully Diluted Shares (M) 4043.0 4043.0 4043.0 4043.0 4043.0 4043.0 Cash on Option Conversion 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 8.7 AVQ Net Asset Value per share : A$/share 0.185 0.054 0.013 0.039 0.068 0.083 AVQ Net Asset Value Diluted : A$/share dil 0.167 0.050 0.013 0.037 0.063 0.076 Valuation Notes 1 See DSO Project assumptions in the table below . Assumes initial 5 year operation at 2Mtpa. NPV risk-discounted by 30% due to early stage project status. 2 Future Production Base Case: Expanded 5Mtpa assumed, valued at US$132/Mtpa (current PSE:NIKL production valuation), discounted by 70%. 3 Assumes 30% tax rate AXIOM MINING LIMITED - CORPORATE VALUATION Risk-discounted project valuations. Shows base case and sensitivity to nickel laterite prices. Adjusted Nickel Laterite Ore Sensitivity (A$M) ISABEL NICKEL PROJECT SUMMARY * MINEABLE RESOURCE ESTIMATES DSO Ore Nickel Iron Contained Mt % % kt Ni Initial high grade DSO ore 10.5 1.50 20.00 157.5 Note: This assumed reserve only relates to an initial small scale 5 year DSO operation. We expect an eventual resource >100Mt to be confirmed with further drilling. MINING METHOD Shallow open pit - free digging Open pit strip ratio: zero pre-stripping required - ore is outcropping at surface. PROCESS METHOD Direct shipping of laterite ore PRODUCTION RATE :Mtpa ore 2.0 Wet metric tonnes CAPITAL COSTS :US$M 30.0 Capex to establish shallow mining and ship loading % 5.0 Sustaining capital (% of initial capex) RECOVERY - NICKEL :% 100 Direct shipping ore - no recovery factor applied LOM AVERAGE OPERATING COSTS (C1) :US$/t 15.00 Mining and loading costs :US$/t 3.00 Overheads :US$/t 17.00 Shipping costs to N China (basis 50,000t shipments) TAX (SOLOMON ISL) :% 30.0 Probable 3-5 year tax holiday for export projects ROYALTY (SOLOMON ISL) :% 3.0 Mines and Minerals Amendement Bill (2014) MINE LIFE :Years 5 Based on initial fast track DSO operation only COMMISSION DATE :Quarter 4Q15 Rapid development timetable anticipated Assumed Life of Mine Reserves * These figures are preliminary in nature and are intended to provide only a general indication of project potential scale and economic robustness. The assumptions above have been inputted into our base case financial model for the proposed initial DSO operation at Isabel. INITIAL FAST TRACK DSO MINING AND SHIPPING - 5 YEAR MINE LIFE
  • 9. EQUITY RESEARCH RCR MARCH 2015 Disclaimer & disclosure attached. Copyright© 2015 by RCR Pty Ltd. All rights reserved. 9 DISCLOSURE AND DISCLAIMER Important Information Resource Capital Research Pty Limited (referred to as “we”, “our”, or “RCR” herein) ACN 111 622 489 holds an Australian Financial Services Licence (AFS Licence number 325340). General advice is provided by RCR’s Authorised Representatives Dr Tony Parry (Authorised Representative number 328842) and Murray Brooker (Authorised Representative number 407208). The FSG is available at www.rcresearch.com.au. All references to currency are in Australian dollars unless otherwise noted. This report and its contents are intended to be used or viewed only by persons resident and located in the United States and Australia and therein only where RCR’s services and products may lawfully be offered. 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