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European Leveraged Finance Market Update
               April, 2012
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
www.LeveragedLoan.com
Market Trends
Text




       The market re-gained its confidence after Greece’s restructuring.

       Inflows and volume were positive, with a slight drop-off in the
       secondary market.

        • The primary markets remained open for both loans and bonds.

        • With the high yield markets open again, issuers executing bond
          for loan takeouts.

        • Default rates ticked higher; expected to rise further during the
          year.
European Loan Flow Name Prices
    100


     99


     97

                                               Text
      96


      94


       93


          91

            1/11     2/11     4/11     5/11     6/11   8/11   9/11   10/11 12/11   1/12   2/12 3/12
.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
European HY Bond Flow Name Prices

    106


    102


     98


     94
                                  Text
     89


     85


     81
          1/11      3/11   5/11    7/11   9/11   11/11   1/12   3/12
.    Source: Bloomberg
ELLI Multi-currency Loan Return (monthly)
      3.0%
                                                    March 2012:      + 0.99%
                           Text                     February 2012:   + 0.73%
                                                    Q1 2012:         + 4.36%
                                                    Q1 2011:         + 4.23%
     1.8%




     0.5%




    (0.8%)




    (2.0%)
             3/10 5/10 7/10 9/10 11/10 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12

.       Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly)
            12
                                                                           HY bonds
                                               Text
                                                                           Loans
            9
€billions




            6

                                                                                                               €4.7B


            3


                                                                                                               €2.8B

            0
                 3/11    4/11   5/11   6/11   7/11   8/11   9/11   10/11    11/11 12/11   1/12   2/12   3/12

 .           Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans
                 Default Rate by Principal Amount                        Default Rate by Issuer Count

    13%                                                        16%



                                                               13%
    9%


                                                               10%
    6%

                                                             Text
                                                                6%


    3%
                                                                3%



    0%                                                          0%
      2/09             3/10            4/11           3/12        2/09    2/10           2/11           3/12

.         Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
Looking Ahead
out



      A-to-E activity will continue to dominate.


      Inflows into European loan accounts are still miniscule with
        high yield accounts getting most of the attention.


      With the markets open again, banks are willing to underwrite,
       however M&A activity is still muted.

      In contrast to the US where default rates are at all time lows,
         default rates in Europe are expected to move up.
Text




European Leveraged Finance Market Update
               April, 2012
        Sucheet Gupte - Director
Text
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April 2012, European Leveraged Loan Market Analysis

  • 1. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update April, 2012 Sucheet Gupte - Director
  • 3. Market Trends Text The market re-gained its confidence after Greece’s restructuring. Inflows and volume were positive, with a slight drop-off in the secondary market. • The primary markets remained open for both loans and bonds. • With the high yield markets open again, issuers executing bond for loan takeouts. • Default rates ticked higher; expected to rise further during the year.
  • 4. European Loan Flow Name Prices 100 99 97 Text 96 94 93 91 1/11 2/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 5. European HY Bond Flow Name Prices 106 102 98 94 Text 89 85 81 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 . Source: Bloomberg
  • 6. ELLI Multi-currency Loan Return (monthly) 3.0% March 2012: + 0.99% Text February 2012: + 0.73% Q1 2012: + 4.36% Q1 2011: + 4.23% 1.8% 0.5% (0.8%) (2.0%) 3/10 5/10 7/10 9/10 11/10 1/11 3/11 5/11 7/11 9/11 11/11 1/12 3/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 7. New-issue: Loans vs. HY Bonds (monthly) 12 HY bonds Text Loans 9 €billions 6 €4.7B 3 €2.8B 0 3/11 4/11 5/11 6/11 7/11 8/11 9/11 10/11 11/11 12/11 1/12 2/12 3/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 8. ELLI Default Rates – European Leveraged Loans Default Rate by Principal Amount Default Rate by Issuer Count 13% 16% 13% 9% 10% 6% Text 6% 3% 3% 0% 0% 2/09 3/10 4/11 3/12 2/09 2/10 2/11 3/12 . Source: LCD - Leveraged Commentary & Data
  • 9. Looking Ahead out A-to-E activity will continue to dominate. Inflows into European loan accounts are still miniscule with high yield accounts getting most of the attention. With the markets open again, banks are willing to underwrite, however M&A activity is still muted. In contrast to the US where default rates are at all time lows, default rates in Europe are expected to move up.
  • 10. Text European Leveraged Finance Market Update April, 2012 Sucheet Gupte - Director
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