This document discusses the challenges students face in needing to pass multiple prerequisite courses at a high success rate in order to transfer, and how the overall odds of success decrease significantly when multiple courses are required. It notes that while a 70% success rate in individual courses seems high, having to achieve that success rate across 3 courses means only a 34% chance of passing all of them. It concludes that student support needs to be strengthened holistically across institutions rather than just in certain programs or departments.

1. The big vision Terraforming

2. Terraforming Imagine that a student is asked to pass a Math class one level beneath transfer, and then pass the transfer level Math class. Let’s say the student has a 70% of doing this. That is pretty good odds.

3. Terraforming Imagine that this same student also is asked to pass an English class one level beneath transfer, and then pass the transfer level English class. Let’s say the student has a 70% of doing this. That is also pretty good odds.

4. Terraforming Imagine that this same student also is asked to pass a Reading class one level beneath transfer, before being allowed to take Transfer level English. Let’s say the student has a 70% of doing this. That is still pretty good odds.

5. Terraforming But here is the problem. Before the student can hope to transfer, she must accomplish ALL of these things. A math formula explains that this is not so easy to do: 70% x 70% x 70% = 34% of accomplishing all 3 tasks. She has a 1 in 3 chance. And of course 70% success rate is quite high…

6. Terraforming 50% x 50% x 50% = 12. 5% chance of passing all the courses. And it’s not just one student we are talking about here; MOST of the students on our campuses face these (suddenly not so good) odds.

7. Terraforming You and your department can create the most enlightened acceleration model that moves your students very quickly to transfer. But if some other area of the campus has NOT done this, students will get caught up there. The conditions that support student success must be created across an institution.