Chapter 13 Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Financial Markets: A Good AI for ...Takanobu Mizuta
Chapter 13
Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Financial Markets: A Good AI for Designing Better Financial Markets and a Bad AI for Manipulating Markets
のご紹介
書籍 Digital designs for money, markets, and social designs に収録
スパークス・アセット・マネジメント株式会社
運用調査本部 ファンドマネージャー 兼 上席研究員
水田孝信
本発表資料はスパークス・アセット・マネジメント株式会社の公式見解を表すものではありません.すべては個人的見解であります.
ワークショップ: https://sites.google.com/view/ddmmsd2022/
書籍: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0937-5
4-5 May 2022 IEEE Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics
Instability of financial markets by optimizing investment strategies investigated by an agent-based model
Takanobu Mizuta SPARX Asset Management Co. Ltd.
Isao Yagi Kogakuin University
Kosei Takashima Nagaoka University
Note that the opinions contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
In this study, we built an artificial market model by adding technical analysis strategy agents (TAs), which search one optimized parameter in a whole simulation run, to the prior model of [mizuta 2016]. The TAs are a momentum TA (TA-m) and reversal TA (TA-r), and we investigated whether investors' inability to accurately estimate market impacts in their optimizations leads to optimization instability.
When both the TA-m and TA-r exist, the parameters of investment strategies were changing irregularly and unexpectedly. This means that even if all other traders are fixed, only one investor optimizing his/her strategy using backtesting leads to the time evolution of market prices becoming unstable. Financial markets are essentially unstable, and naturally, investment strategies are not able to be fixed. The reason is that even when one investor selects a rational strategy at that time, it changes the time evolution of prices, it becomes no longer rational, another strategy becomes rational, and the process repeats.
Optimization instability is one level higher than ``non-equilibrium of market prices.'' Therefore, the time evolution of market prices produced by investment strategies having such unstable parameters is highly unlikely to be predicted and have stable laws written by equations. This nature makes us suspect that financial markets include the principle of natural uniformity and indicates the difficulty of building an equation model explaining the time evolution of prices.
L'intelligence artificielle utilisée sur les marchés financiersTakanobu Mizuta
L'intelligence artificielle utilisée sur les marchés financiers
This article was just translated by DeepL from the Japanese article,
https://www.sparx.co.jp/report/special/3202.html
So, sorry for poor French.
Artificial Intelligence Used in Financial MarketsTakanobu Mizuta
Artificial Intelligence Used in Financial Markets
This article was just translated by DeepL from the Japanese article,
https://www.sparx.co.jp/report/special/3202.html
So, sorry for poor English.
What is a Hight-Speed Trade? Why does a Stock Exchange Speed-Up?Takanobu Mizuta
What is a Hight-Speed Trade? Why does a Stock Exchange Speed-Up?
2021 IEEE 71st Electronic Components and Technology Conference EPS Seminar
Takanobu Mizuta SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Note that the opinions contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
How Many Orders does a Spoofer Need? - Investigation by Agent-Based Model -Takanobu Mizuta
How Many Orders does a Spoofer Need? - Investigation by Agent-Based Model -
BESC 2020 The 7th International Conference on Behavioural and Social Computing
Takanobu Mizuta SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Note that the opinions contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Chapter 13 Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Financial Markets: A Good AI for ...Takanobu Mizuta
Chapter 13
Artificial Intelligence (AI) for Financial Markets: A Good AI for Designing Better Financial Markets and a Bad AI for Manipulating Markets
のご紹介
書籍 Digital designs for money, markets, and social designs に収録
スパークス・アセット・マネジメント株式会社
運用調査本部 ファンドマネージャー 兼 上席研究員
水田孝信
本発表資料はスパークス・アセット・マネジメント株式会社の公式見解を表すものではありません.すべては個人的見解であります.
ワークショップ: https://sites.google.com/view/ddmmsd2022/
書籍: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-19-0937-5
4-5 May 2022 IEEE Computational Intelligence for Financial Engineering and Economics
Instability of financial markets by optimizing investment strategies investigated by an agent-based model
Takanobu Mizuta SPARX Asset Management Co. Ltd.
Isao Yagi Kogakuin University
Kosei Takashima Nagaoka University
Note that the opinions contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
In this study, we built an artificial market model by adding technical analysis strategy agents (TAs), which search one optimized parameter in a whole simulation run, to the prior model of [mizuta 2016]. The TAs are a momentum TA (TA-m) and reversal TA (TA-r), and we investigated whether investors' inability to accurately estimate market impacts in their optimizations leads to optimization instability.
When both the TA-m and TA-r exist, the parameters of investment strategies were changing irregularly and unexpectedly. This means that even if all other traders are fixed, only one investor optimizing his/her strategy using backtesting leads to the time evolution of market prices becoming unstable. Financial markets are essentially unstable, and naturally, investment strategies are not able to be fixed. The reason is that even when one investor selects a rational strategy at that time, it changes the time evolution of prices, it becomes no longer rational, another strategy becomes rational, and the process repeats.
Optimization instability is one level higher than ``non-equilibrium of market prices.'' Therefore, the time evolution of market prices produced by investment strategies having such unstable parameters is highly unlikely to be predicted and have stable laws written by equations. This nature makes us suspect that financial markets include the principle of natural uniformity and indicates the difficulty of building an equation model explaining the time evolution of prices.
L'intelligence artificielle utilisée sur les marchés financiersTakanobu Mizuta
L'intelligence artificielle utilisée sur les marchés financiers
This article was just translated by DeepL from the Japanese article,
https://www.sparx.co.jp/report/special/3202.html
So, sorry for poor French.
Artificial Intelligence Used in Financial MarketsTakanobu Mizuta
Artificial Intelligence Used in Financial Markets
This article was just translated by DeepL from the Japanese article,
https://www.sparx.co.jp/report/special/3202.html
So, sorry for poor English.
What is a Hight-Speed Trade? Why does a Stock Exchange Speed-Up?Takanobu Mizuta
What is a Hight-Speed Trade? Why does a Stock Exchange Speed-Up?
2021 IEEE 71st Electronic Components and Technology Conference EPS Seminar
Takanobu Mizuta SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Note that the opinions contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
How Many Orders does a Spoofer Need? - Investigation by Agent-Based Model -Takanobu Mizuta
How Many Orders does a Spoofer Need? - Investigation by Agent-Based Model -
BESC 2020 The 7th International Conference on Behavioural and Social Computing
Takanobu Mizuta SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
Note that the opinions contained herein are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.
16. 複雑系の勃興時に研究が始まった
16
Takayasu, H., Miura, H., Hirabayashi, T., and Hamada, K.: Statistical properties of deterministic threshold elements
- the case of market price, Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Vol. 184, No. 1, pp. 127, 1992
スタイライズドファクトを再現
恐らく1990年代から行われている
価格の騰落(リターン)の頻度分布は正規分布をしたおらず、裾が厚い
リターンの自己相関はゼロではない、ラグが大きくなるとゼロに近づく
バブルの発生メカニズム
Lux, T. and Marchesi, M.: Scaling and criticality in a stochastic multi-agent model of a financial market,
Nature, Vol. 397, No. February, pp. 498, 1999
実証研究で知られているスタイライズドファクトを再現するための最小限の
エージェント(投資家)の特徴は何か?追求する
いずれも、効率的市場仮説が否定するテクニカル戦略のエージェントが必要との結論
Izumi, K. and Okatsu, T.: An artificial market analysis of exchange rate dynamics, Evolutionary Programming V, pp. 27, 1996
どういうときにバブルが発生するのか?メカニズム、エージェントの特徴
Arthur, W., Durlauf, S., Lane, D., and Program, S. E.: Asset pricing under endogenous expectations in an artificial stock
market, The economy as an evolving complex system II, pp. 15, Addison-Wesley Reading, MA, 1997
歴史あるテーマだが、これらは今でも重要なテーマ いずれも、予測や細かい再現を目的としていない
プラットフォームモデル
PlhamJ: 和泉研作成: https://github.com/plham/plhamJ
例えば、
U-Mart: Kita, et al. : Realistic Simulation of Financial Markets, Springer, 2016
47. その後、社会はどうなったか、、、、
さらに単純化したモデルにより解析的な分析がなされ、
整合的な結果が得られた
← 呼値の比ではなく差がシェアの
移る速さを決める
← 呼値の過当競争は意味がない
その後の研究の進展 • Nagumo, S. et. al.(2016), The effect of tick size on trading volume
share in three competing stock markets, Journal of Physics:
Conference Series, vol. 750,no.1.
https://doi.org/10.1088/1742-6596/750/1/012019
47
• Nagumo, S. et. al.(2017), The Effect of Tick Size on Trading Volume
Share in Two Competing Stock Markets, Journal of the Physical Society
of Japan, vol. 86,no.1. https://doi.org/10.7566/JPSJ.86.014801
https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO83727450W5A220C1DTA000/
株式の私設取引、売買シェア低下東証の刻み値縮小が響く
差別化難しく投資家離れ 2015/2/27 日本経済新聞