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Rashid on Growth and
Miracles
Gaurav Sukhija, IITGN
March 13, 2014
Administrative Issues
• Office address: Room 305, Shed 5
• Collect papers between 12 pm - 2 pm
• Logistical issues. Quizzes delayed.
• Solow’s framework
How do we measure
economic growth?
The fallacy of
composition
• What is true of the parts is true of the whole
• Examples:
• Farmer with bumper crop
• Keynes’ paradox of thrift
The neoclassical
production function
• Sure individual firms have a production
function
• Does this imply that the economy has a
production function?
• Non-trivial because of the fallacy of
composition -- Cambridge critique
Total Factor
Productivity
• Suppose we own a farm
• 10 workers in year 1 and we produce 100
units of a crop
• In year 2, we still have 10 workers, but how
much do we produce?
Total Factor
Productivity
• The extra production isn’t due to growth
of inputs
• This is TFP
Units of TFP
• Y: Machines per year
• L: Man-hours per year
• K: Capital-hours per year
• A: ?
The pitfalls of TFP
Source: Rashid (2000) pp. 151
The pitfalls of TFP
• In short. Not a robust measure
!"#$%&
!& !"#& !"$& !"%& !"'& (& ("#& ("$& ("%&
)*+",*-"./&01*&2.34.&
5676389&
:;<;=9&
>.4.&
?94*7&
2*307;<&@/79A;3&,*-6B<9A&
?*-;<&
:;8;4;CA;7&
5;34<;8*C1&
D1;3;&
E4;38;&
F.3867;C&
2193;&
2.0*&8GHI.97*&
H38.3*C9;&
5.<9I9;&
>1;9<;38&
:.7.AA.&
J;3;+;&
>67K*L&
M<&N;<I;8.7&
D6;0*+;<;&
NL79;3&@7;B&,*-6B<9A&
H7;3&OHC<;+9A&,*-6B<9A&./&
D;B.3&
E7646;L&
P.7*;Q&,*-6B<9A&./&
D7**A*&
>79398;8&;38&>.B;4.&
N=90R*7<;38&
HA*<;38&
S93<;38&
@6C079;&
:;679T6C&
2;3;8;&
2193;&OF.34&P.34&N@,U&
H7*<;38&
Source: http://www.unido.org/
Krugman’s analysis of
East Asian growth
• Two claims:
• Real growth is achieved in a sustained
fashion only by efficiency growth
• The measured values of efficiency growth
in East Asia were negligible
Krugman’s analysis of
East Asian growth
• Two claims:
• Real growth is achieved in a sustained
fashion only by efficiency growth
• The measured values of efficiency growth
in East Asia were negligible
Okay
Debatable
Why is efficiency key?
• Can’t produce more with the same inputs
unless you’re more efficient
• This is a given
On TFP measurements
Source: Rashid (2000) pp. 152
On TFP measurements
Source: Rashid (2000) pp. 155
The theory isn’t ready
for policy
Ronald Coase (Nobel 1991)
• “In my youth it was said
that what was too silly
to be said may be sung.
In modern economics it
may be put into
mathematics.”

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20140313.pdf

  • 1. Rashid on Growth and Miracles Gaurav Sukhija, IITGN March 13, 2014
  • 2. Administrative Issues • Office address: Room 305, Shed 5 • Collect papers between 12 pm - 2 pm • Logistical issues. Quizzes delayed.
  • 3. • Solow’s framework How do we measure economic growth?
  • 4. The fallacy of composition • What is true of the parts is true of the whole • Examples: • Farmer with bumper crop • Keynes’ paradox of thrift
  • 5. The neoclassical production function • Sure individual firms have a production function • Does this imply that the economy has a production function? • Non-trivial because of the fallacy of composition -- Cambridge critique
  • 6. Total Factor Productivity • Suppose we own a farm • 10 workers in year 1 and we produce 100 units of a crop • In year 2, we still have 10 workers, but how much do we produce?
  • 7. Total Factor Productivity • The extra production isn’t due to growth of inputs • This is TFP
  • 8. Units of TFP • Y: Machines per year • L: Man-hours per year • K: Capital-hours per year • A: ?
  • 9. The pitfalls of TFP Source: Rashid (2000) pp. 151
  • 10. The pitfalls of TFP • In short. Not a robust measure
  • 11. !"#$%& !& !"#& !"$& !"%& !"'& (& ("#& ("$& ("%& )*+",*-"./&01*&2.34.& 5676389& :;<;=9& >.4.& ?94*7& 2*307;<&@/79A;3&,*-6B<9A& ?*-;<& :;8;4;CA;7& 5;34<;8*C1& D1;3;& E4;38;& F.3867;C& 2193;& 2.0*&8GHI.97*& H38.3*C9;& 5.<9I9;& >1;9<;38& :.7.AA.& J;3;+;& >67K*L& M<&N;<I;8.7& D6;0*+;<;& NL79;3&@7;B&,*-6B<9A& H7;3&OHC<;+9A&,*-6B<9A&./& D;B.3& E7646;L& P.7*;Q&,*-6B<9A&./& D7**A*& >79398;8&;38&>.B;4.& N=90R*7<;38& HA*<;38& S93<;38& @6C079;& :;679T6C& 2;3;8;& 2193;&OF.34&P.34&N@,U& H7*<;38& Source: http://www.unido.org/
  • 12. Krugman’s analysis of East Asian growth • Two claims: • Real growth is achieved in a sustained fashion only by efficiency growth • The measured values of efficiency growth in East Asia were negligible
  • 13. Krugman’s analysis of East Asian growth • Two claims: • Real growth is achieved in a sustained fashion only by efficiency growth • The measured values of efficiency growth in East Asia were negligible Okay Debatable
  • 14. Why is efficiency key? • Can’t produce more with the same inputs unless you’re more efficient • This is a given
  • 15. On TFP measurements Source: Rashid (2000) pp. 152
  • 16. On TFP measurements Source: Rashid (2000) pp. 155
  • 17. The theory isn’t ready for policy
  • 18. Ronald Coase (Nobel 1991) • “In my youth it was said that what was too silly to be said may be sung. In modern economics it may be put into mathematics.”