Economic Forum Webinar 14 June 2021

ONS Economic Forum
#economicforum
@ONSfocus
14 June 2021 slido #00765

ONS Economic Forum
Deputy Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
Chair – Ed Palmer
#economicforum
@ONSfocus
14 June 2021 slido #00765

Agenda
09:30 – 09:35 Welcome and introduction – Ed Palmer (Chair)
09:35 – 09:50 Business and individual attitudes towards the future of
homeworking – Abi Casey
09:50 – 10:05 State of the UK economy – Grant Fitzner
10:05 – 10:25 Q&A
10:25 – 10:30 Close
#economicforum
@ONSfocus slido #00765

Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code #00765.
You can also access slido via the link in the chat box.
@ONSfocus #economicforum slido #00765

Business and
individual attitudes
to the future of
homeworking
Abi Casey
Co-Head of the Strategic Analytical Unit (SAU)
Analysis, Micro-data & Engagement
14 June 2021 @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #00765

About this analysis
• This analysis explores the effect of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic on
office working as well as changing business and individual attitudes to future
working practices
• The data:
• Included new questions into Business Insights and Conditions Survey (BICS) and Opinions and
Lifestyle Survey (OPN) covering attitudes on future homeworking
• Questions covered the period; 19th April – 2nd May (BICS) and 21st April – 16th May (OPN)
• Responses are based on attitudes at the time of completion
• Use of experimental vacancy data from Adzuna to look at changing homeworking job adverts
for the first time
• The full article was published today on the ONS website
slido #00765
@onsfocus #economicforum

The proportion of working adults reporting working from
home exclusively has varied over the past year
Opinions and Lifestyle Survey- May 2020 to May 2021
• The proportion of working
adults working from home
exclusively has been
declining since March 2021
• There has been a recent
increase in working adults
both working from home and
travelling to work
slido #00765

Since lockdown, online job adverts citing homeworking
have risen 3 times faster than total adverts
Adzuna May 2019 – May 2021
• Online job adverts including
the term 'homeworking' were
three times higher in May
2021 than their pre-pandemic
level
• Remote working adverts still
only account for 8% of total
adverts.
slido #00765

Industries in which homeworking is currently more common
intend to use increased homeworking the most in future
• Of businesses that hadn’t permanently
stopped trading, 24% intend to use
increased homeworking, while
28% were not sure
• The Information and Communication
industry were most likely to intend to
increase home working in the future
(49%), but still lower than the proportion
currently homeworking (81%).
Business Insights and Conditions Survey
slido #00765

Those with higher incomes most likely to expect a mix of
home working and returning to their usual workplace
Opinions and Lifestyle Survey
• On average, 85% of working
adults expected to 'hybrid' work, with
32% expecting to spend most of
their working time at home.
• 38% of businesses expected '75%
or more' of their workforce to be at
their normal place of work in the
future.
Personal annual gross income is self-reported and therefore should be treated with caution. A
respondent’s income information does not represent equivalised household income,
slido #00765

Of all businesses, 37% expected their workforce to return
to their normal place of work within the next 3 months
• 19% of businesses stated they were
unsure when their workforce would
return to their normal place of
work, reflecting some uncertainty
around working in the future.
• Working adults expect to continue
working from home longer than
businesses, most expecting to return
within the next 3 to 5 months or by
October 2021
• Younger age groups expected to
return sooner
Business Insights and Conditions Survey
Date ranges implied from survey answers given on basis such as “Between 1
and 3 months” from completion of survey between 19 April to 2 May.
slido #00765

'Improved work life balance' was the main advantage of
homeworking according to working adults
Opinions and Lifestyle Survey
• Combined overall view using
responses of working adults
stating whether something was a
positive or negative
• For example, work-life balance is
shown as a positive, meaning
more stated it improved rather
than reduced with homeworking
slido #00765

Social distancing and cleaning are top priorities for
businesses and working adults when returning to their
normal place of work
slido #00765

Conclusions and considerations
• This early look into attitudes towards future homeworking found:
• Many businesses remained uncertain of their plans for future homeworking
• Responses are based on attitudes at the time of completion and may evolve rapidly,
with changing situation and restrictions
• While homeworking has seen an increase due to the pandemic, there are large disparities
between industries depending on their ability to work from home
• Most working adults that can homework expect a 'hybrid' approach in the future
• If this becomes a reality it will require businesses to adapt their business models
• A permanent increase in homeworking may have wider (e.g. commuting, city centres,
shifts in regional populations, long term business investment)
• Further work – ONS will be looking into more granular analysis of the future of
homeworking as well as the potential impacts on the economy and society
slido #00765

State of the
UK Economy
Grant Fitzner
Chief Economist | Director, Macroeconomic Statistics and Analysis
@GrantFitzner
14 June 2021 @ONSfocus #economicforum slido #00765

Output
slido #00765

UK economy sees spring recovery
slido #00765
Source: Office for National Statistics – Monthly GDP, chain volume, seasonally adjusted
Monthly GDP index
UK, January 2020 to April 2021, Feb 2020 = 100
Contributions to monthly GDP growth
UK, January to April 2021, Percentage points
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2020 JAN 2020 APR 2020 JUL 2020 OCT 2021 JAN 2021 APR
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21
GDP Services Production Construction

Consumer spending: goods vs services
slido #00765
Source: Office for National Statistics – Monthly GDP, Retail sales (volumes)
Note: Consumer-facing services refer to retail trade, food and beverage serving activities, travel and transport, and entertainment and
recreation (SIC 2007 codes 45, 47, 49.1-2, 56, 68.1-2, 75, 79, 92, 93, 94, 96 and 97).
Real monthly gross domestic product and retail sales, s.a., UK (Feb. 2020 = 100)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20 Jan-21 Apr-21
Consumer facing services
Monthly GDP
Retail sales volumes

Contributions from pandemic response
slido #00765
Source: ONS – Monthly GDP, April 2021. Table 2 Note: Estimates are provisional and subject to revision.
The contribution to monthly GDP is calculated based on no other data changes
Health volume adjustments and contribution to GDP growth based on these £m figures
Month
NHS test
and trace
Vaccine
programme
Total
spending
Monthly
GDP
growth
Pandemic
response
GDP
cont’n
Monthly
GDP excl.
pandemic
response
£m £m £m % ppt %
Jan ‘21 1,400 500 1,900 -2.5 -0.1 -2.4
Feb ‘21 1,300 600 1,900 0.7 0 0.7
Mar ‘21 2,900 800 3,700 2.1 1.2 0.9
Apr ‘21 2,300 800 3,100 2.3 -0.5 2.8

Trade
slido #00765

Trade in goods with EU normalising
Source: Office for National Statistics – UK trade statistics, current prices, including precious metals, s.a., £ billion
UK goods exports to EU and non-EU UK goods imports from EU and non-EU
£0bn
£5bn
£10bn
£15bn
£20bn
£25bn
EU exports Non-EU exports
£0bn
£5bn
£10bn
£15bn
£20bn
£25bn
EU imports Non-EU imports
@onsfocus #economicforum slido #00765

UK port real time indicators
slido #00765
Source: ONS, exactEarth and Highways England – Weekly shipping visits; Vehicle flows around ports
Daily and weekly shipping visits, s.a., 2019 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
01 Dec
2019
29 Feb
2020
29 May
2020
27 Aug
2020
25 Nov
2020
23 Feb
2021
24 May
2021
Average sensor count on roads around ports
in England, s.a., Feb 2020 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec
2018
Mar
2019
Jun
2019
Sep
2019
Dec
2019
Mar
2020
Jun
2020
Sep
2020
Dec
2020
Mar
2021
Vehicles over 11,66m in length
Vehicles between 6,6m and 11,66m in length
Vehicles under 5,2m in length
All vehicles

Labour market
slido #00765

Labour impacts tempered by furlough
slido #00765
Source: ONS – Labour Force Survey, Dataset A01 (MGSR, MGSX), all aged 16 and over, seasonally adjusted
UK employment rate around recessions UK unemployment rate around recessions
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Months since output peak
1990-91 recession 2008-09 recession
2020-21 recession
56%
57%
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
63%
-12 -9 -6 -3 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Months since output peak
1990-91 recession
2008-09 recession
2020-21 recession

Job vacancies show strength
Source: Adzuna weekly job adverts and ONS Vacancy Survey, Index: February 2020 = 100
Adzuna weekly job adverts & ONS experimental single month vacancies
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021
Adzuna ONS Vacancy Survey

Strong demand across several sectors
Source: Adzuna weekly job adverts and ONS Vacancy Survey, Index: February 2020 = 100
Adzuna weekly job adverts in selected industries
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021
Manufacturing Wholesale and retail
Transport / logistics / warehouse Catering and hospitality
Healthcare and Social care

Economic outlook
slido #00765

Retail footfall
slido #00765
Source: Springboard and the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
Overall daily retail footfall as percentage of the equivalent day of the equivalent week of 2019

UK spending on debit and credit cards
slido #00765
Source: ONS and Bank of England calculations
Aggregate CHAPS-based indicator of credit and debit card purchases; February 2020 = 100
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Jan
2020
Feb
2020
Mar
2020
Apr
2020
May
2020
Jun
2020
Jul
2020
Aug
2020
Sep
2020
Oct
2020
Nov
2020
Dec
2020
Jan
2021
Feb
2021
Mar
2021
Apr
2021
May
2021

Source: ONS – National Accounts; monthly GDP (ECY2) and quarterly GDP (ABMI)
UK economic downturns and recovery; index: 100 = last quarter before onset of recession
Post-war recessions compared
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
0 1 2 3 4
Years since pre-recession peak
Q2 1973 peak Q4 1979 peak Q2 1990 peak
Feb 2008 peak Jan 2020 peak

The economic outlook
Short-term outlook
• Limited labour market impacts, strong labour demand
• Consumer confidence has recovered, retail spending quite buoyant
• Few business report risk of insolvency or have no survival confidence
slido #00765
Medium-term uncertainties
• Variation in vaccination and reopening across countries
• Consumer spending: pent-up demand vs precautionary saving?
• Will current supply constraints and price increases prove transitory?
• Potential for dislocation as economy and workforce restructures
• Outlook for business investment, productivity growth

Questions can be submitted via the slido app using code #00765.
You can also access slido via the link in the chat box.
Q & A
@ONSfocus #economicforum slido #00765

Closing remarks
Deputy Chief Economist
Office for National Statistics
Ed Palmer
14 June 2021 #economicforum

Forthcoming ONS economic analysis
17 June - Business insights and impact on the UK economy
22 June - Economic trends in the retail sector, Great Britain: 1989 to 2019
28 June - Productivity double deflation impact
02 July - Foreign-owned businesses in the UK non-financial business economy
(Annual Business Survey)
For more information about the above releases please visit the ONS website
#economicforum

Upcoming ONS events
23 June 2021 - ESWG Gender Pay Gap Webinar
24 June 2021 – Data Science Campus webinar - Susan Athey (Stanford Graduate School of
Business) - Causal Inference and Machine Learning in Panel Data Models
19 July 2021 – Economic Forum; presentations to include:
• State of the UK economy
• Hospitality in the time of COVID 19
• Subnational FDI estimates
Further details on the above events can be found at: ons.gov.uk/economicevents
#economicforum

Economic Forum Webinar 14 June 2021

More Related Content

More from Office for National Statistics

Recently uploaded

Economic Forum Webinar 14 June 2021

Editor's Notes