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1. Healthcare Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change
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Healthcare Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change Paper ON Healthcare
Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change PaperIn Week 6, you looked at
trends and driving forces that may have an impact on your organization in the long term.
For this Assignment, review the data collected from previous weeks, and continue to do
research using the Internet, databases, government reports, newspaper articles, and other
sources. For this Assignment, consider trends and driving forces. Explain which are the
most important and likely to have the most impact, as well as which are the least
predictable and would have the most negative impact on your organization. Finally, stretch
your imagination and build one wild card scenario that may impact your organization in 10
years by looking at the data and information on the organization’s risks and vulnerabilities.
Use the nonprofit or government organization you have selected for your Final Project, and
provide the following: Summarize which trends and driving forces are the most important
and will have the most impact on your organization in 10 years. Are any of these inevitable
or pre-determined? Summarize which forces are least predictable and would have the most
negative impact on your organization. Explain an unpredictable event that may have a
significant positive impact on your organization in 10 years and in 20 years. Imagine your
organization in 2025 and write a 1-page wild card scenario for your organization by looking
at its risks and vulnerabilities. The Assignment should follow APA 6th edition
guidelines:Title page Running head Introduction and Conclusion Level 1 headings to define
sections 3–5 pages in length, double spaced, 12 pt Times Roman font 3–5 references cited in
the text and a reference list Readings Fukuyama, F. (2007). The challenges of uncertainty:
An introduction. In F. Fukuyama (Ed.), Blindside: How to anticipate forcing events and wild
cards in global politics (ebrary version, pp. 1–6). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution
Press. Retrieved from the Walden University Library databases. Schwartz, P., & Randall, D.
(2007). Ahead of the curve: Anticipating strategic surprise. In F. Fukuyama (Ed.), Blindside:
How to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics (ebrary version, pp. 93–
108). Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press. Retrieved from the Walden University
Library databases. Masys, A. J. (2012). Black swans to grey swans: Revealing the
uncertainty. Disaster Prevention and Management, 21(3), pp. 320–335. Retrieved from the
Walden University Library databases Wade, P. A., & Wade, W. (2012). Scenario planning: A
field guide to the future [ebrary version]. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley. Retrieved from the Walden

2. University Library databases. Chapter 4, “Black Swans” (pp. 140–153) Healthcare
Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change
Paperwk5assgnwalkerc.docwk_3_swot_analysis.docxwk4assgnwalkerc.docwk_6_dp.docUnf
ormatted Attachment PreviewTHE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS The Scenario Planning
Process Courtnie Walker Walden University September 28, 2019 1 THE SCENARIO
PLANNING PROCESS 2 The Scenario Planning Process The International Committee of the
Red Cross is a humanitarian organization. Its efforts are dedicated to the eradication of
human suffering through the protection of human life and health to ensure that all human
beings are accorded respect. The scenario planning process carried out by the
organization’s management revolves around ensuring that there are enough resources and
personnel stationed across the world to alleviate human suffering and making sure that the
responders have the necessary skills to help when disaster strikes. The following report of
an interview with one of the organization’s leaders in charge of strategic planning reveals
critical aspects of the organization’s scenario planning process which other similar
organizations could adopt. One of the authors of the ICRC Strategy 2019-2022 is a leader of
the organization. They played a significant role in the planning process which resulted in
the creation of the strategy. The strategy anticipates future disasters based on some of the
current disasters and reports evaluating the recent state of the world. It features
contingency plans for the mitigation of each disaster individually. The plans consider
everything needed to address the disasters and help the victims, which include the financial
resources, human resources, and logistics needed for interventions to reduce the number of
deaths and injuries as well as help the victims of the disasters. Their key focus in the
organization is planning, logistics, and facilitation of resources and personnel to areas
where they are needed. An interview seeking to discover their position on the role of the
scenario planning process provided some insight into the four independent stages of the
process. THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS 3 Interview Questions How long have you
worked with the ICRC? “Thirteen years. I started out as a volunteer for three years before
taking up a position in logistics which I have held for ten years, during which I have risen
through the ranks into management.” What are some of the uncertainties facing the
International Committee of the Red Cross? Healthcare Assignment: Trends and Drivers of
Health System Change Paper“The organization faces uncertainties related to the occurrence
of disasters all over the world. Some disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and volcanic
eruptions can be anticipated. However, regardless of the possibility of the determination of
their occurrence, the accurate prediction of their size, timing, and location is virtually
impossible. Other natural disasters such as landslides are also difficult to predict. Manmade
disasters such as terrorism, technological, and transportation hazards are equally difficult
to anticipate. In addition to the occurrence, timing, and impact of disasters, the ICRC also
faces uncertainties regarding financial and human resources. The organization relies
heavily on donations and grants to fund its operations. Furthermore, a significant number of
the organization’s personnel are volunteers making it virtually impossible to include them
in the strategic plans resulting from the scenario planning process since their availability is
uncertain.” How do you address the uncertainties to ensure that they do not impede the
organization’s ability to respond to disasters? “The scenario planning process is the solution

3. to the uncertainties. The completion of the process provides a contingency plan to be
followed when disaster strikes. The plan reduces response THE SCENARIO PLANNING
PROCESS 4 time, enhances the efficiency of the disaster response process, and ensures that
there are enough resources and personnel to help the victims of disasters. “ What changes
need to be made now to improve disaster preparedness? “Two main changes which should
be made by the ICRC and other related non-governmental organizations are better planning
and the alignment of these plans to anticipated future disasters. Planning ensures that an
organization will have set processes and procedures to deal with any event or disaster
which necessitates rescue. The plans should anticipate the events and disasters to ensure
alignment of the set response plans to the needs of the victims of specific disasters. “ What
is the role of the strategic planning process in your organization? “The scenario planning
process is critical to the achievement of the objectives of any organization. For the ICRC, the
process is the road map which guides all the activities of the organization to ensure the
achievement of its objectives. “ What major lessons have you learnt through your
authorship of the ICRC Strategy 2019-2022? “Participating in the creation of the strategies
for disaster response and management for the organization has taught me the benefits of
the scenario planning process. The process was the basis on which the strategies were
created making its role in the planning function of an organization critical. “ From the
interview, the leader’s position is evident in their support of the scenario planning process.
They consider the process to be critical to strategic management in the organization. Their
insight into the scenario planning process serves a guide through the process for a non-
governmental organization serving a similar purpose as the International Committee of THE
SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS 5 the Red Cross. Their insight into the process is the
rationale for their selection for the interview together with their duties which include the
coordination of the critical areas of the organization such as logistics, resources, and human
resources. Another key player who would have been a good interview subject would be a
coordinator or supervisor who implements the plans developed after the completion of the
scenario planning process. The interview would be aimed at determining the effectiveness
of the scenario planning process. The scenario planning process identifies potential
scenarios and determines possible reactions to them. The interview reveals that the process
is critical to the achievement of the objectives of an organization since it enhances the
organization’s readiness to respond to different scenarios. For this reason, organizations
such as the International Committee of the Red Cross have adopted the process as a
resource to guide their strategic planning. THE SCENARIO PLANNING PROCESS 6
References Chermack, T. J. (2011). Healthcare Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health
System Change PaperScenario planning in organizations: how to create, use, and assess
scenarios. Berrett-Koehler Publishers. Agam, R., Tamir, S., & Golan, M. (2015). Gender
differences in respect to self-esteem and body image as well as response to adolescents’
school-based prevention programs. Journal of Psychology and Clinical Psychiatry, 2(5),
00092. Du, H., King, R. B., & Chi, P. (2017). Self-esteem and subjective well-being revisited:
The roles of personal, relational, and collective self-esteem. PloS one, 12(8), e0183958.
Gross, S. M., Gary, T. L., Browne, D. C., & LaVeist, T. A. (2005). Gender differences in body
image and health perceptions among graduating seniors from a historically black college.

4. Journal of the National Medical Association, 97(12), 1608. Wade, P. A., &Wade, W. (2012).
Scenario planning: A field guide to the future. John Wiley & Sons. Wolf, C., & Floyd, S. W.
(2017). Strategic planning research: Toward a theory-driven agenda. Journal of
Management, 43(6), 1754-1788. Running head: DISCUSSION QUERIES 1 Discussion Queries
Courtnie Walker Walden University MMPA 6390 DISCUSSION QUERIES 2 Discussion
Queries Organization The selected organization is the American Red Cross (ARC) a
contemporary nonprofit organization in the world. ARC was established in 1881 by Clara
Barton as a humanitarian organization and is headquartered in Washington, D.C., in the
United States. The ARC provides emergency assistance, services to the American military
and their closest families, disaster relief, and disaster preparedness training and education
in the U.S. The selected nonprofit organization provides its compassionate services within
the United States. Moreover, ARC maintains close ties with the federal administration of the
United States in its operation and provision of its humanitarian services. SWOT Analysis
Strengths Weaknesses 1. Quality compassionate services. 1. Mismanagement of resources.
2. Positive reputation and image. 2. Limited fund. 3. Diversified humanitarian services.
Opportunities Threats a. The adoption of advanced technology. a. Stiff competition for
donations. b. The extension of ARC compassionate across the world. b. The negative press. c.
The adoption of marketing strategies. Strengths. According to Bryson (2018), strengths
refer to internal factors that enhance an organization capability to realize its mission and
creation of public value. One of the strengths of the ARC is quality compassionate services.
Healthcare Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change PaperARC has a high
human capacity which is composed of the organization’s staffs and volunteers. Thus, the
high human capacity of the organization enables its ability to provide quality humanitarian
services. Secondly, the positive reputation and image is the strength of the ARC. The positive
reputation and image of the organization are facilitated by the renowned compassionate
services it offers to the citizens. Lastly, diversified humanitarian services offered by the ARC
can be held as strength. The diversified services offered by the organization enhance the
capability to be highly regarded and rated as important in the nation. Weaknesses.
Mismanagement of resources is one of the weaknesses of the ARC. The organization’s weak
resources accountability measures tend to result in a lack of accountability of the employees
and volunteers. Additionally, a limited fund is another weakness of the ARC. The ARC
depends on donations from the citizens and does not get regular funds from the federal
DISCUSSION QUERIES 3 government (Redcross.org, n.d.). Thus, the lack of stable funding
hinders the capability of the firm to consistently fund all its compassionate services.
Opportunities. One of the possible opportunities for ARC is the likelihood of the adoption of
advanced technology. The dynamic technology witnessed in the world can be employed by
the organization to harness its efficiency and improve the quality of its humanitarian
services. Secondly, the extension of ARC compassionate across the world is another
opportunity for the organization. This undertaking would harness the capability of the
organization to expand its donation sources. Lastly, the adoption of marketing strategies is
another opportunity for the organization since it can promote the brand image of the
organization in the world. Threats. Stiff competition for donations is one of the threats of
the ARC. The ARC encounters the challenges of sourcing financial donation from the public

5. due to a high number of nonprofit organizations that depend on public donations.
Additionally, the negative press is another threat for ARC concerning the operation of the
organization. The negative press adversely affects the organization by destroying the
positive reputation and image of the organization. DISCUSSION QUERIES 4 References
Bryson, J. M. (2018). Strategic Planning for Public and Nonprofit Organizations: A Guide to
Strengthening and Sustaining Organizational Achievement (5th ed.). Hoboken, NJ: John
Wiley & Sons, Inc. Redcross.org. (n.d.). Our Federal Charter: Our Relationship with the
Federal Government. Retrieved from https://www.redcross.org/about-us/who-we-
are/history/federalcharter.html THE AMERICAN RED CROSS 1 The American Red Cross
Courtnie Walker Walden University September 20, 2019 THE AMERICAN RED CROSS 2
Introduction According to Wolf and Floyd (2017), most strategic planning processes include
conducting a SWOT analysis to address an organization’s external and internal
environments. A SWOT analysis is a useful technique used to identify the strengths,
weaknesses, opportunities, and threats for organizations. SWOT-analysis helps the
organizations to focus on what matters, in the short term of one to five years (Wolf& Floyd,
2017). To allow leaders to imagine on possible future events in the long time of even over
twenty years, SWOT analysis does not remain used and, in its place, scenario planning gets
used (Wolf& Floyd, 2017).Wolf and Floyd (2017) further explain that scenario planning
allows envisioning strategic goals to leaders for the attainment of goals that they are willing
to work to achieve over a long time.Chermack, (2011) explains that there are several
approaches to scenario planning, including but not limited to Wilson and Ralston, Lindgren
and Bandhold, Check Decision Strategies International and Reference scenarios. In this
article, scenario planning is carried out on The American Red Cross. The report starts with a
brief description of the organization, explains how the organization can use scenario
planning with its strategic planning processes and provides a conclusion. Healthcare
Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change PaperThe mission of The
American Red Cross According to Springer and Casey-Lockyer, (2016), the American Red
Cross was established on 21st May 1881 by Clara Barton after learning of the Red Cross in
Geneva. The American Red Cross is a non-governmental humanitarian organization. Its
main aim is to prevent and alleviate human suffering through disaster relief, emergency
assistance, and disaster preparedness (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). The American Red
Cross provides blood services, training services, and disaster services. Furthermore, it
works through its strong network of volunteers, THE AMERICAN RED CROSS 3 donors, and
partners who are always available in times of need (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). Some
of the blood services provided by the American Red Cross include blood donation, plasma
services, tissue services, leukoreduction, and nucleic acid testing etcetera (Springer &
CaseyLockyer, 2016). The training services in the American Red Cross, according to
Springer and Casey-Lockyer, (2016), is one of the major divisions of the organization which
plays a crucial role in equipping the general public and its workforce with life-saving first
aid skills (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). Some of the training services provided by the
American Red Cross include Asthma Inhaler training, Lifeguarding, Emergency medical
response, water safety, and wilderness and remote first aid etcetera (Springer & Casey-
Lockyer, 2016). The organization, as Springer and Casey-Lockyer, (2016) further asserts,

6. also responds to many disasters relating to hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and
explosions, among others. The American Red Cross has a formal authority to provide
disaster relief as it got presented with a congressional charter in the year 1905(Springer &
Casey-Lockyer, 2016). The American Red Cross and scenario planning According to Wade
and Wade (2012), scenario planning is a strategic planning method used in organizations
for the formation of long-term plans. The term scenario planning is also known as scenario
analysis (Wolf & Floyd, 2017). Chermack (2011) explains scenario planning as a tool for
bringing up assumptions for facilitating changes in the view that decision-makers have
toward the environment. Chermack (2011) further explains that scenario analysis is a tool
for improving or changing the quality of perceptions that people have. This section aims at
describing how the American Red Cross can use scenario planning with its strategic
planning process to engage critical stakeholders in long-range planning. Healthcare
Assignment: Trends and Drivers of Health System Change PaperTHE AMERICAN RED
CROSS 4 According to Springer and Casey-Lockyer, (2016), the American Red Cross stays
guided by the fundamental principles of humanity, impartiality, neutrality, independence,
voluntary service, unity, and universality.Following the underlying principles, some of the
strategic objectives that the American Red Cross include the Movement’s ambition to
become the essential independent force for humanitarian actions worldwide, imperative
needsfor sustaining local capacities in the National societies and the provision of emergency
help whenever human needs for equal protection arise due to disasters and conflicts. The
strategic objectives that the American Red Cross have may face challenges in future and for
the imagination of possible future events in the long-term, scenario planning models can be
used (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). As stated earlier, there are several approaches to
scenario planning, including but not limited to Wilson and Ralston, Lindgren and Bandhold,
Check Decision Strategies International and Reference scenarios (Chermack, 2011). For the
American Red Cross, due to the broad global scope that Red Cross covers, the recommended
approach for scenario planning is the Decision Strategies International which is similar to
the Global Business Network strategy (Chermack, 2011). This strategy, according to
Chermack, (2011), is a ten-step process which adequately does an analysis of the rate of
change and identifies the key stakeholders during the first two stages. In step three,
fundamental trends get identified, while level four considers the critical uncertainties. The
initial scenarios then get checked for plausibility from which general themes emerge. The
method gets concluded through the reexamination of internal inconsistencies after the
completion of additional research and the determination of scenarios to get used for
decision making (Chermack, 2011). Potential future strategic issues THE AMERICAN RED
CROSS In 23rd August 2005, Hurricane Katrina resulted in mass damages in the Southern
United States and Louisiana. The hurricane led to losses that amounted to billions of dollars
besides the approximated, one thousand eight hundred lives lost (Springer & Casey-
Lockyer, 2016). This Hurricane Katrina catastrophe led to the exposure of emergency
response systems as slow and insufficient for such massive disasters. Due to this, one of the
strategic issues that may face Red Cross is that in future, disaster response may entail the
use of drones and majorly be involved with people that have adequate machine learning
skills.Due to the nature of the possible issue, the strategic principle that Red Cross have of

7. voluntary service may be compromised; it is not anyone that can perform the required
activities but only the skilled in machine learning and drone control. As mentioned above,
the American Red Cross has the aim ofproviding emergency help whenever human needs
for equal protection arise due to disasters and conflicts (Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016).
In recent times, however, there are alarming increases in the pollution of the environment
(Springer & Casey-Lockyer, 2016). The increase in the corruption of the environment may
result in numerous disease outbreaks in the future, as Springer and CaseyLockyer (2016)
assert. These healthcare issues may arise and be beyond the control of the American Red
Cross, which prompts for countermeasures of preventive action, implying a need for the
strategic changes of Red Cross from providing emergency help to implementing preventive
measures. Scenario planning in strategic goal identification According to (Watson &
Freeman, 2013), scenario planning is a part of strategic planning that involves learning to
see the future in different ways and using the foresight to do things differently today.
Scenario planning is also not merely about predicting the future but involves 5 THE
AMERICAN RED CROSS 6 the imagination and analysis of current approaches to strategy to
understand the environments that organizations have to engage in to flourish (Watson &
Freeman, 2013).In determining the strategic goals for the American Red Cross, I would
check the trends that would have arisen or that may or may not a .