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Mid-Year Review: US, Germany, Singapore Lead in Dynamic CRE Markets
- 1. AUGUST 2 011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
Mid-Year Review: US, Germany, Singapore
Lead in Dynamic Marketplace
Global transaction volume in the second QUARTERLY TRANSACTION VOLUME
quarter totalled $165.3 representing a 36 $140 Billion
increase from a year earlier and bringing Americas
the total for 2011 at mid-year to approxi- $120 AsiaPac
mately $350.0 . e period was marked EMEA
by potential national defaults in Europe, $100
natural disasters in Asia Pac and increas-
ing worries about a double-dip recession
across the globe. erefore, property in- $80
vestment trends are far more dynamic than
the headline gures imply. e US mar- $60
kets are roaring back to life this year with
property sales soaring 147 year-over-year $40
in Q2. Trading in EMEA was an anemic
10 gain year-over-year in Q2 on $42.5 $20
in transactions, despite robust increases
in Germany and Scandinavia. Japan saw
volumes fall 42 in Q2 while transactions $0
moderated in China and Hong Kong but 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
surged in Singapore and Australia. '08 '09 '10 '11
AUGUST 2011 - REPORT CONTENTS
IN THIS ISSUE:
• Overview: Investors Stay the Course • EMEA: Investors Focus on Stable Economies . 5-9
H1 volume hits $350 billion. . . . . . . . . . 1-4 Investment Momentum Linked To Risk . . . . 7
Market Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 9
CROSS-BORDER ACQUISITIONS AND
DISPOSITIONS IN AUSTRALIA • Asia Pacific: China’s Land Sales Drop as CRE
Volume Grows . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10-14
acq disp net Cross-border Buyers Move Australia . . . . . 12
5,000 Million
Market Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .14
4,000
• Americas: US Momentum Leads Growth . . 15-19
3,000 Pretend and Extend Withers in Q2
Brazil: A Growing Institutional Market . . . . 17
2,000
Market Table . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .19
1,000
• Changing Landscape for Agents . . . . . . . . . 20
0 • Peak-Era Buyers: Where Are They Now? . . . . 21
(1,000) • Selected Investment Sales Transactions . . . . 22
(2,000) • Notes & Definitions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
'08 '09 '10 '11
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
1
- 2. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
A
verage yields have continued to trend TRANSACTION SUMMARY
slightly downward in the Americas Q2'11 YOY H1’11 YOY
and EMEA. In the Americas, the Vol ($B) Chg Vol ($B) Chg
wave of capital entering the market this Office $41.2 29% $81.9 36%
year is causing downward pressure, but that Retail 32.7 97% 60.6 61%
is being partially o set by increased sales of
Industrial 11.6 26% 22.3 41%
troubled assets in the US. In EMEA, stable
All Commercial $85.5 48% $164.8 45%
cap rates still re ect strong German and
Nordic volume combined with select UK Hotel 8.8 80% 16.7 66%
trophy transactions. Higher yields in Asia Apartment 20.4 38% 33.2 37%
PROPERTY ACQUISITION YIELDS
IN MAJOR GLOBAL MARKETS Pac partly re ect rebounding activity in Land 50.6 14% 134.6 11%
Australia, where property o ers among the Total $165.3 36% $349.3 30%
NYC/DC highest average cap rates globally, as well as
HK/Sing *Totals may not sum due to rounding
London/Paris the severe slide in activity in traditionally
7.5% lower-yielding Japan. had very low cap rates, and without greater economic
Pricing trends in the world’s global nan- certainty, investors are hesitant about becoming even
7.0%
cial capitals provide more insight. Yields in more bullish. In addition, with yields so low in these
6.5% these markets were relatively unchanged major markets, secondary cities and other higher yield-
in Q2 and have moved little since the be- ing alternatives are more attractive. e surge of cross-
6.0%
ginning of the year. ese markets already border capital into Australia well illustrates this trend.
5.5% QUARTERLY TRANSACTION SUMMARY BY ZONE
5.0% OFFICE, RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL
ASIA PAC EMEA AMERICAS
4.5% CAP RATES CAP RATES CAP RATES
9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
4.0% 8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
3.5%
7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
3.0% 7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
'07 '08 '09 '10 '11 6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
TRANSACTION
$50 Billion 2 3 4 TRANSACTION 3 4 1 2
1 1 2 3 4 1 2 $50 Billion 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
1 $50 Billion 2 3 4 TRANSACTION 3 4 1 2
1 1 2 3 4 1 2
'08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11
$40 $40 $40
$30 $30 $30
$20 $20 $20
$10 $10 $10
$0 $0 $0
150% 1 2 YOY 4 1 2 3 IN TRANS3 4 1 2
3 CHANGE 4 1 2 VOL 150% 1 2 YOY 4 1 2 3 IN TRANS3VOL 1 2
3 CHANGE 4 1 2 4 150% 1 2 YOY 4 1 2 3 IN TRANS3 4 1 2
3 CHANGE 4 1 2 VOL
'08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11
100% 100% 100%
50% 50% 50%
0% 0% 0%
-50% -50% -50%
-100% -100% -100%
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
'08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
2
- 3. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
E
ach global zone combated pressures TRANSACTIONS BY COUNTRY
from within. Sovereign debt fears ALL PROPERTY TYPES
in EMEA’s peripheral countries and Q1’11 Q2’11 H1’11
heavy belt-tightening in the UK restrained Vol YOY Vol YOY Vol YOY
growth, but domestic and cross-border Country
($B) Chg ($B) Chg ($B) Chg
investors were active in Germany and the 1 China $75.7 8% $41.8 21% $117.6 12%
stable Scandinavian economies. While 2 United States 28.8 93% 49.0 147% 77.8 124%
Russia struggled, Central
VOLUME BY THEATER and Eastern Europe at-
3 United Kingdom 15.3 62% 9.0 -25% 24.3 14%
ALL PROPERTY TYPES 4 Germany 9.3 42% 11.2 65% 20.5 54%
tracted yield-seeking in-
Q2'11 YOY H1’11 YOY 5 Japan 11.4 18% 3.6 -42% 15.0 -5%
Vol ($B) Chg Vol ($B) Chg vestment. In Asia Paci c,
6 Singapore 5.4 237% 6.2 68% 11.5 119%
United States $49.0 147% $77.8 124%
the retail and industrial
7 Hong Kong 3.5 -29% 6.0 38% 9.5 3%
Canada 4.5 8% 7.8 5%
sectors were a counter-
8 France 3.9 32% 5.3 -20% 9.1 -4%
Latin America 2.1 17% 5.6 95%
weight to slow o ce vol-
ume and a sharp drop-o 9 Sweden 2.8 23% 5.1 80% 8.0 55%
Americas $55.6 115% $91.2 102%
in Q2 land sales in China. 10 Canada 3.3 2% 4.5 8% 7.8 5%
Western Europe 28.8 27% 52.8 27%
United Kingdom 9.0 -25% 24.3 14% In the US, the intense 11 Australia 2.0 -34% 5.6 102% 7.6 32%
Eastern Europe 3.1 17% 7.6 17% selective focus on major 12 Brazil 2.9 399% 1.1 -32% 4.0 85%
MidEast 0.8 -29% 1.5 -18% assets in major markets 13 Taiwan 1.7 -8% 1.3 -41% 3.0 -26%
Africa 0.9 161% 1.1 -8% began to spread out, as 14 South Korea 1.5 71% 1.4 91% 3.0 80%
EMEA $42.5 10% $87.4 21% yield-conscious investors 15 Italy 1.6 87% 0.8 -9% 2.5 37%
East Asia 50.7 21% 133.3 11% moved into other markets 16 Spain 1.3 -31% 1.1 -29% 2.3 -30%
Japan 3.6 -42% 15.0 -5% and embraced garden 17 Netherlands 1.3 19% 1.0 -5% 2.3 7%
SE Asia 6.6 41% 13.2 92% apartments. e ow of 18 Russia 0.2 -91% 1.8 85% 2.0 -34%
Australia - NZ 5.7 96% 8.1 24% new distress slowed and, 19 Poland 1.4 91% 0.5 -22% 1.8 40%
India/Other 0.6 -71% 1.3 -56% with credit easing and 20 Norway 0.4 -33% 1.1 77% 1.5 22%
Asia Pacific $67.2 17% $170.8 12% prices rming, lenders
21 India 0.8 -29% 0.6 -71% 1.3 -56%
opted more for liquida-
Global* $165.3 36% $349.3 30% 22 Finland 0.3 4% 0.8 182% 1.2 91%
tions than restructurings
*Totals may not sum due to rounding 23 Belgium 0.4 -9% 0.8 105% 1.2 47%
of troubled assets.
24 Czech Republic 0.9 279% 0.2 24% 1.2 168%
Highlighting the choppy and o en local-
25 Switzerland 0.5 97% 0.6 280% 1.1 162%
ized activity across the global markets, many
countries saw quarterly volume trends 26 Denmark 0.5 38% 0.6 78% 1.1 56%
reverse, in both directions, from Q1 to Q2. 27 South Africa 0.2 -79% 0.8 1362% 1.0 12%
Other countries, with the US in the lead, saw 28 Malaysia 0.6 47% 0.3 -58% 0.9 -23%
strong positive acceleration in growth in Q2. 29 Israel 0.2 -48% 0.6 -6% 0.8 -22%
e US had the highest growth in both 30 Ukraine 0.6 446% 0.1 -80% 0.7 40%
Q2 and H1, with its second quarter gain of 31 Chile 0.2 100% 0.6 4453% 0.7 678%
147 outpacing its 124 H1 growth. Ger- 32 Austria 0.6 38% 0.1 -79% 0.7 -19%
many and Sweden were the standout gainers 33 Turkey 0.6 30% 0.1 94% 0.7 38%
in EMEA as France and the UK lost ground. 34 New Zealand 0.4 -39% 0.1 -10% 0.5 -33%
China’s land sales turndown slowed the gi- 35 Hungary 0.4 20% 0.1 27% 0.5 22%
ant Asia Pac market to just 12 in H1, one- 36 UAE 0.5 64% 0.0 -95% 0.5 -36%
third below its growth for commercial prop- 37 Romania 0.5 207% 0.0 -100% 0.5 59%
erty only. Australia’s transaction volume 38 Croatia 0.4 - 0.0 -100% 0.4 283%
moved rapidly positive, pushing the country 39 Portugal 0.2 -43% 0.2 -68% 0.4 -57%
to a 102 gain. Spectacular Q1 growth in
40 Thailand 0.3 61% 0.1 -61% 0.4 -10%
Singapore and Brazil inevitably slowed in
All Others 1.4 54% 1.3 69% 2.7 61%
Q2, but both countries turned in solid posi-
Grand Total $184.0 25% $165.3 36% $349.3 30%
tive improvements for H1.
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
3
- 4. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
Global: Top Deals and Players in H1’11
TOP 25 PROPERTY SALES
TOP 20 BUYERS# Price SF(K)/ PPSF/
Type Transaction Location Buyer
($M) Units PPU (K)
Vol 1 RET The Trafford Centre† Manchester, GBR $2,498 1,900 $1,315 Capital Shopping Ctrs Grp PLC
($M)
2 RET Centr0† Oberhausen, DEU 1,913 2,174 880 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
Blackstone $9,008
3 DEV Borrett Road Site, Mid-levels Hong Kong, HKG 1,498 113 13,266 Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd
CPP Investment Board 3,689
4 OFF 280 Park Avenue† New York, NY 1,100 1,179 941 SL Green JV Vornado
Capital Shopping Ctrs Grp PLC 3,098
China Vanke Co Ltd 3,048 5 RET Northland Shopping Centre† Preston East, AUS 998 994 1,004 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
Yunnan Zhonghao Props Co Ltd 2,714 6 DEV Shenzhen 2011-K202-0014 Shenzhen, CHN 991 7,509 132 China Merchants Property Dev Co Ltd
CA Immo 2,402 7 DEV CITIC City B,C,D blocks (Prt II) Beijing, CHN 929 848 1,095 Financial Street Holding Co Ltd
Tesco Pension Trustees Ltd 2,200 8 OFF Otemachi PAL Bldg Tokyo, JPN 877 301 2,916 Mitsui Fudosan Co Ltd JV Mitsui & Co
Poly Real Estate Group 2,128 9 OFF Deutsche Bank Twin Towers Frankfurt, DEU 857 807 1,062 DWS Investments Gmbh
Invesco Real Estate 2,117 10 DEV Changsha 2011-001 Changsha, CHN 855 800 1,068 Wharf Holdings
Wheelock & Co 2,105 11 DEV Punggol Central & Punggol Walk Singapore, SGP 799 323 2,475 Frasers Centrepoint Ltd‡
Greentown China Hldgs Ltd 2,099 12 DEV Boon Lay Way Singapore, SGP 791 194 4,085 CapitaMalls Asia JV HSBC Bank
Cheung Kong (Holdings) Ltd 2,034
13 OFF Chiswick Park London, GBR 781 1,900 411 Blackstone
CapitaLand Limited 1,929
14 OFF Helmsley Building† New York, NY 763 1,213 629 Invesco Real Estate
JP Morgan 1,747
15 OFF Capital Square Singapore, SGP 700 387 1,810 Alpha Investment Partners (AIP)‡
China Overseas L & I Ltd 1,650
Mitsubishi Estate 1,611 16 OFF The Fifth Square† Beijing, CHN 682 1,009 677 China Minmetals Corporation
China Merchants Group 1,517 17 DEV Nanjing 2011G07 Nanjing, CHN 681 3,667 186 Shimao Property Holdings Ltd‡
Arminius Funds Mgmt 1,457 18 DEV Toyosu District Site Tokyo, JPN 680 1,132 601 Tokyo Metropolitan Government
DekaBank 1,429 19 OFF The Centre Shanghai, CHN 666 963 692 China Pacific Insurance (Group) Co Ltd
Far East Organization 1,423 20 RET La Rinascente Milan, ITA 652 566 1,151 First Atlantic Real Estate SGR
21 OFF Market Square East & West Washington, DC 615 680 905 Wells Real Estate Funds, Inc
22 HTL Ritz Carlton HTL Moscow, RUS 609 334 1,824 Verny Capital
TOP 20 SELLERS # 23 DEV CITIC City B,C,D blocks Beijing, CHN 607 848 716 Financial Street Holding Co Ltd
Vol 24 DEV Yiwu 2011017 Yiwu, CHN 594 883 672 Guangsha Construction
($M)
25 IND Interlink† Hong Kong, HKG 589 2,400 245 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
Centro Properties Group $8,102
Urban Redevelopment Authority 3,356
Housing & Dev Board 2,821 TOP 15 PORTFOLIO SALES
Volksbank AG 2,426 Price SF(K)/ PPSF/
Type Transaction Location Buyer
Tesco plc 2,223 ($M) Units PPU (K)
Beacon Capital Partners 2,215 1 RET Centro United States Portfolio Multiple, USA $9,150 99,051 $92 Blackstone
Goldman Sachs 1,868 2 RET Tesco RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, GBR 2,200 3,500 629 Tesco Pension Trustees Limited
Deutsche Bank 1,782 3 MIX Europolis MIX Eastern Euro Ptfl 11 Europe 2,009 13,011 154 CA Immobilien Anlagen AG
CITIC Group 1,780 4 OFF Eurocastle Mars Fixed 1 Ptfl 2011† Berlin, DEU 1,457 4,989 292 Arminius Funds Management
Broadway Partners 1,715 5 IND Bracor IND Portfolio 11 Multiple, BRA 1,322 10,764 123 Prosperitas
GE Capital 1,653 6 RET Metro RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, DEU 1,215 9,688 125 Cerberus Capital Management
Aberdeen Property Investors 1,541 7 OFF Kokusai Shin-Akasaka Towers Tokyo, JPN 1,066 863 1,236 Mitsubishi Estate Company, Limited
Eurocastle 1,544 8 DEV Greentown China Hldgs Gov't Land Ptfl Taizhou, CHN 1,011 7,386 137 Greentown China Holdings Limited
Bracor Invtos Imobiliarios 1,297
9 DEV Kunming Guandu KC2010-76 Kunming, CHN 987 22,158 45 Yunnan Zhonghao Properties Co Ltd
Morgan Stanley 1,336
10 APT Dombron Intressenter Ptߠ Multiple, SWE 948 8,281 115 AMF Fastigheter
Equity Residential 1,345
11 MIX Melrose Arch† Melrose North, ZAF 686 1,808 332 Amdec Property Development
Lone Star Partners 1,230
Unibail-Rodamco 1,242 12 OFF Mapletree Com Trust Ptfl 2011 Singapore, SGP 625 733 853 Mapletree Commercial Trust
Carlyle Group 1,097 13 HTL MSREF HTL Portfolio 11 Multiple, Europe 621 2,537 245 Toufic Aboukhater
Lehman Brothers Hldgs Inc 1,108 14 MIX Capital and Counties Mix Ptfl Multiple, CA 600 2,106 253 Equity One‡
15 IND World Market Center Ptfl* Las Vegas, NV 600 4,832 124 Bain Capital‡
# Full credit to each JV partner, 100% valuation given *Estimated † Partial Interest ‡ JV
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
4
- 5. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
EMEA: Quarter in Review Summary
F
ollowing six consecutive quarters of QUARTERLY TRANSACTION VOLUME
strong year-over-year gains, EMEA BY PROPERTY TYPE
$70 Billion
transaction volumes stalled in Q2. Commercial
e slowdown, to $42.5 of signi cant $60 Apartment
property sales, was at against a year ear- Hotel
lier and re ects widening divergence in in- $50 Land
vestor outlook across core and peripheral
European markets. Pricing was also gener- $40
ally at in Q2 across EMEA and yields on
acquisitions have changed little since the $30
beginning of the year.
$20
Among property types, retail was the big-
gest gainer in H1’11 with volume up 41
$10
boosted by billion-dollar transactions such
as Tra ord Centre in Manchester, Centr0 in $0
Oberhausen and a
TRANSACTION SUMMARY 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
major Tesco portfo- '08 '09 '10 '11
Q2'11 YOY H1’11 YOY lio in the UK. e of-
Vol ($B) Chg Vol ($B) Chg ce and hotel sectors PERCENT CHANGE IN TRANSACTION VOLUME
Office $18.0 40% $33.7 31% (H1’10 VS H1’11)
also recorded healthy <-50% -
50–0% 0–20% 20–50% 50–100% >100%
Retail 12.1 26% 29.2 41%
gains in transaction DECREASE INCREASE
Industrial 2.8 -35% 7.1 -1%
All Commercial 32.9 23% 70.0 31%
volume while indus-
Hotel 2.6 47% 5.6 39% trial and apartment FIN
NOR
Apartment 5.3 -33% 8.1 -25% volume fell .
Land 1.8 -20% 3.7 -11% Germany and the SWE
DNK
Total $42.5 10% $87.4 21% Nordic countries RUS
*Totals may not sum due to rounding have emerged as fa- IRL
NLD
CAN GBR POL
voured investment targets in the current BEL
DEU
CZE
market and all posted robust gains in trans- FRA
SVK
AUT HUN
UKR
CHE
action activity in each quarter this year. ITA
HRV ROU
SRB
is helped o set signi cant Q2’11 MCO
MNE BGR
USA
declines in the UK and France of 25 and PRT ESP
GRC TUR
20 , respectively, in addition to continued
weak performance in the peripheral mar- ISR
kets such as Greece, Portugal, Spain and
MEX
Ireland. Investors are ocking to Germany QAT
and Scandinavia which currently o er the SAU ARE
highest risk adjusted yields (see page 7).
Germany’s Q2’11 growth of 65 was
well ahead of its H1’11 gain of 54 (and the
UK’s 14 ) as domestic and cross-border
demand broadened. Sweden, the hottest
Nordic market, saw growth of 55 for
H1’11. With the strong exception of Russia’s
PER
34 decline, Eastern European activ-
BRA
ity remained stable, with core properties in
key markets attracting increased attention
from yield-seeking investors. In the Middle
East, both Israel and the United Arab Emir-
CHL
ates saw a steep fallo in activity in H1. ZAF
ARG
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
5
- 6. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
A
mong markets, positive growth RECENTLY BUILT OR RENOVATED
has slowed but been maintained in OFFICE BUILDING SALES IN Q2
London and Paris indicating the Price PPSF/ Built/
Property City Cap Rate
investment trends in secondary markets ($M) PPU ($K) Renov
in the UK and France continue to under- Selmer Building Oslo $166.7 1,006 4.5% 2008
perform. However, ve German metros
Origami Paris 124.0 2,421 4.7% r2010
now occupy the top markets list, with all
showing positive investment growth. Guim'arts Brussels 46.7 620 5.4% r2010
Cap rates on commercial properties in
DB Twin Towers Frankfurt 857.4 1,062 5.5% r2010
Western Europe and the UK are closely
aligned averaging between 6.6 and 1 Finsbury Circus London 236.5 1,183 5.5% r2009
6.7 . Average cap rates in Eastern Europe
record a decline in Q2, but are skewed by
a higher quality of properties trading as ovated o ce buildings in select European markets
investors seek to minimize risk. Recent illustrate the premium prices commanded by the
prices and cap rates for new or newly ren- highest quality properties.
QUARTERLY TRANSACTION SUMMARY BY THEATER
OFFICE, RETAIL AND INDUSTRIAL
UNITED KINGDOM WESTERN EUROPE EASTERN EUROPE
CAP RATES* CAP RATES* CAP RATES*
9.0% 9.0% 9.0%
8.5% 8.5% 8.5%
8.0% 8.0% 8.0%
7.5% 7.5% 7.5%
7.0% 7.0% 7.0%
6.5% 6.5% 6.5%
6.0% 6.0% 6.0%
5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
TRANSACTION TRANSACTION TRANSACTION
$35 Billion 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
1 $35 Billion 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
1 $35 Billion 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
1
'08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11
$30 $30 $30
$25 $25 $25
$20 $20 $20
$15 $15 $15
$10 $10 $10
$5 $5 $5
$0 $0 $0
1 2 YOY4 1 2 3 IN TRANS3VOL 1 2
3 CHANGE 4 1 2 4 1 2 YOY4CHANGE IN TRANS3VOL 1 2
3 1 2 3 4 1 2 4 1 2 YOY4 1 2 3 IN TRANS3VOL 1 2
3 CHANGE 4 1 2 4
150% 150% 150%
'08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11
100% 100% 100%
50% 50% 50%
0% 0% 0%
-50% -50% -50%
-100% -100% -100%
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
'08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11 '08 '09 '10 '11
*Two quarter rolling average
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
6
- 7. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
Europe: Investment Momentum Linked To Risk
L
ooking at investment volume increases action volume growth both on a six-month and
across European markets and comparing quarterly basis. ey include a higher propor-
spreads between cap rates and relevant tion of non-eurozone countries with more stable
government bonds, it is clear that the momen- economic conditions. Countries plotted in the
tum of real estate investment in Europe is ow- lower le quadrant, notably Spain and Portugal,
ing towards the highest relative yields in the are experiencing negative transaction momen-
safest markets. tum. e UK on a half-year basis escapes
e upper right quadrant of the momentum this grouping, but its lower Q2’11 volume
graph highlights the focus of capital on Ger- re ects a weakening market. Among the outli-
many and Sweden in response to the attractive ers, Ireland saw already low volume falter in
cap rate spread over government bonds through Q2’11, while Russia’s good Q2 re ects a major
Q2’11. Like Germany and the Nordics, the other luxury Moscow hotel acquired by Kazakhstan
countries in this quadrant display strong trans- backed private equity.
CAP RATE SPREADS INVESTMENT MOMENTUM BY COUNTRY
ALL PROPERTY TYPES
TO SOVEREIGN BONDS
Cap Rate Gov't Bond Spread Switzerland
0 100 200 300 400
Finland
100%
Sweden
80% Turkey
Belgium
Sweden Denmark
60%
Germany
Russia
Norway
40%
Q2’11 vs Q2’10 % Chg
Germany
UK
20% Czech Republic
Hungary
0%
Netherlands
France
Italy
France
-20%
Poland
Italy -40% Spain
United Kingdom
Ireland
-60%
Ukraine
Portugal
Spain
Austria
-80%
Romania Croatia
*Greece
0% 2% 4% 6% 8%
-60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
H1’11 vs H1’10 % Chg
*No significant transactions recorded for Greece over the last 12 months. Based on percent change in Euros
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
7
- 8. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
EMEA: Top Deals and Players in H1’11
TOP 25 PROPERTY SALES
TOP 20 BUYERS# Price SF(K)/ PPSF/
Type Transaction Location Buyer
($M) Units PPU (K)
Vol 1 RET The Trafford Centre† Manchester, GBR $2,498 1,900 $1,315 Capital Shopping Ctrs Grp PLC (CSC)
($M)
2 RET Centr0† Oberhausen, DEU 1,913 2,174 880 Canada Pension Plan Investment Board
Capital Shopping Ctrs Grp PLC $2,498
3 OFF Deutsche Bank Twin Towers Frankfurt, DEU 857 807 1,062 DWS Investments Gmbh
CA Immo 2,402
4 OFF Chiswick Park London, GBR 781 1,900 411 Blackstone
Tesco Pension Trustees Limited 2,200
CPP Investment Board 1,913 5 RET La Rinascente Milan, ITA 652 566 1,151 First Atlantic Real Estate SGR
Arminius Funds Management 1,457 6 HTL Ritz Carlton HTL Moscow, RUS 609 334 1,824 Verny Capital
Cerberus Capital Management 1,215 7 RET Boulevard Berlin Berlin, DEU 533 753 707 Corio NV
DekaBank 1,179 8 OFF Rolls Building London, GBR 492 262 1,880 Legal & General Property
Deutsche Bank 1,160 9 OFF MidCity Place† London, GBR 468 352 1,329 Oxford Properties Group
AMF 948 10 OFF Aviva Tower London, GBR 439 315 1,393 Kuok Khoon Hong & Martua Sitorus
AEW Capital Management 788 11 OFF River Court London, GBR 437 425 1,029 Chinese Estates Group
Invesco Real Estate 786 12 OFF 10 Aldermanbury London, GBR 434 312 1,393 JP Morgan
Blackstone 781 13 OFF River Ouest Bezons, FRA 400 689 581 ING RE Invt Mgmt France OBO Predica SA‡
Signa Holding 721
14 OFF 20 Gresham St London, GBR 374 237 1,580 AXA RE Investments Managers (REIM)
Corio NV 716
15 OFF Park House London, GBR 366 310 1,180 Qatar National Bank
Amdec Property Development 686
First Atlantic Real Estate SGR 652 16 HTL Paris Marriott Champs-Elysees Paris, FRA 362 192 1,887 Abu Dhabi Investment Authority
Prudential PLC 640 17 RET Spitalerstrasse 22-26† Hamburg, DEU 361 55 6,560 Signa Holding
Legal & General Property 631 18 HTL Le Meridien Montparnasse Paris, FRA 350 953 367 Unibail-Rodamco
Real I.S. AG 612 19 OFF Belgrave House† London, GBR 347 280 1,239 TIAA-CREF (fund)
Verny Capital 609 20 RET Jubilee & West End Houses London, GBR 342 121 2,834 Pontegadea Inversiones SL
21 RET Schloss Arkaden Braunschweig, DEU 335 597 561 Deka Immobilien Investment GmbH
22 OFF Defense Plaza Puteaux, FRA 325 335 969 Northwood Investors LLC
TOP 20 SELLERS # 23 RET Eden Shopping Centre† High Wycombe, GBR 313 850 368 Aldersgate Investments
Vol 24 RET Marmara Park† Istanbul, TUR 302 1,076 281 DWS Investments Gmbh
($M)
25 RET Wankdorf Shopping Centre Bern, CHE 300 678 442 UBS JV Swissreal Investments Ltd
Peel Group $2,498
Volksbank AG 2,426
Tesco plc 2,223 TOP 15 PORTFOLIO SALES
Stadium Group 1,913 Price SF(K)/ PPSF/
Type Transaction Location Buyer
Deutsche Bank 1,782 ($M) Units PPU (K)
Aberdeen Property Investors 1,541 1 RET Tesco RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, GBR $2,200 $3,500 $629 Tesco Pension Trustees Limited
Eurocastle 1,544 2 MIX Europolis MIX Eastern Euro Ptfl 11 Multiple, Europe 2,009 13,011 154 CA Immobilien Anlagen AG
Unibail-Rodamco 1,242 3 OFF Eurocastle Mars Fixed 1 Ptfl 2011† Berlin, DEU 1,457 4,989 292 Arminius Funds Management
Beacon Capital Partners 1,043 4 RET Metro RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, DEU 1,215 9,688 125 Cerberus Capital Management
Fourth Swedish Nat'l Pension Fund 948 5 APT Dombron Intressenter ptߠ Sweden other 948 8,281 115 AMF Fastigheter
Morgan Stanley 922 6 MIX Melrose Arch† Melrose North, ZAF 686 1,808 332 Amdec Property Development
Pirelli & C. Real Estate SpA 804 7 HTL MSREF HTL Portfolio 11 Multiple, Europe 621 2,537 245 Toufic Aboukhater
ECE Projektmanagement 817 8 MIX NR Nordic & Russia Props Ltd Mix Ptfl 11 Multiple, Europe 542 8,872 61 Kungsleden AB
Schroders plc 781
9 APT Genesis Housing APT Ptfl 11† London, GBR 464 1,630 284 Grainger plc
Stanhope Plc 781
10 MIX ECE MIX portfolio 2011† Hamburg, DEU 435 665 655 Real I.S. AG
Kuwait Investment Authority 741
11 RET Rubin Moscow RET Ptfl 2011 Moscow, RUS 428 1,017 421 Yuri and Alexei Hotin
Highstreet Holding 760
GE Capital 734 12 IND VGP IND Portfolio 11† Prague, CZE 414 4,629 89 AEW Europe JV Tristan Capital Partners
Hermes 678 13 RET Unibail RET Portfolio 11 Multiple, SWE 379 1,002 379 Grosvenor‡
Investitori Associati 652 14 RET Karstadt Highstreet Ptfl 2011 Multiple, DEU 370 524 706 Quantum Immobilien AG
15 RET Highstreet Karstadt Ptfl Munich, DEU 361 570 632 Signa Holding‡
# Full credit to each JV partner, 100% valuation given *Estimated † Partial Interest ‡ JV
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
8
- 9. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
EMEA: Transactions by Market in H1’11
APARTMENT INDUSTRIAL OFFICE RETAIL HOTEL LAND SITE GRAND TOTAL* YOY CHANGE
Vol ($M) # Props Vol ($M) # Props Vol ($M) # Props Vol ($M) # Props Vol ($M) # Props Vol ($M) # Props Vol ($M) # Props Vol Props
Austria Austria, all $72 2 $72 2 $258 3 $316 5 $717 12 -19% -45%
Belgium Belgium, all 21 1 92 3 914 20 58 3 88 2 1,173 29 47% 16%
Bulgaria Bulgaria, all 62 3 62 3 -52% -25%
Czech Republic Czech Republic, all 414 7 445 8 304 5 1,163 20 168% 25%
Copenhagen 43 3 45 2 318 8 347 6 72 1 825 20 81% 100%
Denmark
Denmark other 18 1 65 4 151 2 9 1 243 8 7% 100%
Baltic States Baltic States 25 1 299 7 17 1 341 9 994% 350%
Helsinki 60 4 28 2 552 10 152 3 792 19 226% 58%
Finland
Finland other 29 3 84 5 85 9 86 11 101 3 384 31 3% 107%
Paris 183 4 237 7 4,699 83 378 42 1,080 41 6,578 177 41% 51%
France
France other 286 8 282 28 519 17 1,260 23 196 5 2,543 81 -47% -49%
Berlin-Brandenburg 989 39 27 1 1,813 36 886 12 152 3 200 4 4,068 95 53% -13%
Hamburg 341 24 216 8 1,413 24 1,056 6 52 2 125 4 3,203 68 309% 209%
Munich 286 18 178 3 321 9 501 8 36 3 119 5 1,441 46 10% 59%
Frankfurt/Rhine-Main 79 4 80 1 1,294 8 298 8 221 5 297 6 2,269 32 175% -14%
Germany
Stuttgart 11 1 38 2 106 4 142 4 21 1 100 1 420 13 23% -7%
Rhine-Ruhr 345 27 48 3 704 14 2,348 27 27 1 204 7 3,676 79 12% -66%
Saxon Triangle 227 103 55 1 45 3 413 7 22 1 13 1 775 116 11% 625%
Germany other 564 216 49 2 315 11 3,293 138 228 5 207 8 4,657 380 37% 222%
Greece Greece, all -100% -100%
Hungary Hungary, all 128 2 169 3 100 1 69 1 35 2 501 9 22% 125%
Ireland Ireland,all 346 4 346 4 111% -43%
Rome 263 6 66 1 96 1 425 8 -46% 0%
Europe
Italy
Italy other 13 1 900 17 1,029 7 87 2 2,029 27 102% 4%
Netherlands Netherlands, all 274 29 434 19 1,035 32 483 16 41 2 30 2 2,297 100 7% -3%
Norway Norway, all 28 2 121 6 950 14 403 6 10 1 1,512 29 22% 0%
EMEA
Poland Poland, all 220 8 897 11 543 6 42 2 113 5 1,815 32 40% 28%
Portugal Portugal, all 40 3 55 3 59 1 70 3 150 4 373 14 -57% -60%
Romania Romania, all 46 1 201 3 18 2 195 2 459 8 59% -27%
Moscow 165 2 331 3 628 3 639 2 1,763 10 -20% -58%
Russia
Russia other 20 1 52 2 18 1 150 2 21 1 261 7 -69% -91%
Madrid 28 1 21 1 170 3 325 237 189 5 37 1 770 248 -40% 700%
Spain
Spain other 183 8 187 4 570 248 443 10 187 5 1,569 275 -24% -40%
Stockholm 771 45 288 22 716 17 696 7 118 2 182 2 2,769 95 20% 16%
Sweden
Sweden other 1,963 134 1,042 69 1,504 119 581 26 47 5 62 3 5,198 356 82% 88%
Switzerland Switzerland, all 189 3 483 5 326 2 94 2 1,092 12 162% 20%
Turkey Turkey, all 13 1 132 3 462 2 39 2 24 1 670 9 38% -25%
London Metro 958 17 227 16 9,434 108 1,338 21 291 13 196 5 12,444 180 19% -8%
Manchester Metro 39 2 89 4 2,572 4 245 4 2,945 14 263% -46%
United Kingdom
Scotland 166 4 60 3 364 10 16 1 606 18 -50% -67%
UK other 125 4 1,205 53 1,458 48 5,159 93 319 9 87 4 8,353 211 -7% -56%
Ukraine Ukraine all 499 1 25 1 200 3 724 5 40% -38%
Europe other Europe 112 3 295 1 102 2 14 1 523 7 52% -36%
Total $7,763 694 $7,043 303 $33,270 681 $28,517 1,016 $5,459 143 $2,723 79 $84,775 2,916 22% 2%
Israel Israel, all 306 2 62 3 177 3 256 5 801 13 -22% -32%
Dubai 483 6 483 6 -36% -67%
UAE
UAE, all 165 2 165 2 - -
Mid-East other Saudi Arabia, all 67 1 67 1 -16% 0%
Mid-East
Total $306 2 $62 3 $177 3 $972 14 $1,516 22 -18% -42%
Africa Africa, all 89 1 319 3 546 6 98 3 20 1 1,071 14 -6% 0%
Africa
Total $89 1 $319 3 $546 6 $98 3 $20 1 $1,071 14 -6% 0%
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
9
- 10. AUGUST 2011
MID-YEAR REVIEW
Asia Pacific: Quarter in Review Summary
S
ales of signi cant properties in QUARTERLY TRANSACTION VOLUME
Asia Paci c totaled $67.2 in Q2’11, $120 Billion BY PROPERTY TYPE
bringing the total for the rst half Commercial
of 2011 to $170.8 . While the region con- Apartment
$100
tinues to show solid, steady growth in Hotel
commercial property investment, some Land
signi cant changes were noted in Q2 as $80
investment surged in Australia and plum-
meted in Japan. Hong Kong recovered $60
from a relatively poor Q1 with a stronger
Q2 to be at at the mid-year point while $40
Singapore’s 119 increase in transactions
in H1 topped every major economy glob- $20
ally except the US.
Also noteworthy, cross-border inves-
$0
tors were part of the surge in transactions
in Australia and 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2
TRANSACTION SUMMARY Singapore, and the '08 '09 '10 '11
Q2'11 YOY H1’11 YOY buyers included a PERCENT CHANGE IN TRANSACTION VOLUME
Vol ($B) Chg Vol ($B) Chg healthy mix of Eu- (H1’10 VS H1’11)
FIN
Office $8.5 -8%
NOR $22.2 14% ropean and North <-50% - 50–0% 0–20% 20–50% 50–100% >100%
Retail 5.1 75% 9.8 15% American invest- DECREASE INCREASE
SWE
Industrial 2.9 71% 4.9 52%
DNK RUS ment rms which
All Commercial 16.5 19% 36.9 18%
NLD have been relatively
Hotel IRL1.6GBR 13% 2.5 -11%
DEU
POL quiet since 2007.
Apartment 2.0 46% CZE 4.0
BEL 25%
Land 47.2 SVK UKR South Korea also
FRA 15% AUT 127.4
HUN
11%
Total $67.2
CHE
17% ITA $170.8 ROU 12%
HRV posted strong results
SRB
*Totals may not sum due to rounding MCO
MNE BGR in each quarter this
PRT ESP
GRC TUR year and its 80 in-
KOR
crease in H1 was the second highest in Asia. JPN
CHN
e only countries in Asia Paci c where in-
ISR
vestment momentum appears waning and
volume fell in both quarters this year were
QAT
ARE TWN
SAU
India, Taiwan and New Zealand. IND HKG
Across Asia Paci c, growth accelerated THA
in the second quarter in every property VNM
type save o ce, which is largely due to
curtailed investment in Japan. In China, MYS
sales of o ce and retail properties nearly SGP
doubled in H1’11 while sales of develop-
BRA
able land moderated in Q2 as China’s
long-running e orts to calm exuber-
ant sales appear to be bearing fruit. In
addition, transactions in China’s over-
heated primary markets dropped as ac- AUS
tivity moved to secondary and tertiary
ZAF
cities. Land rights in China accounted for
$38.7 in Q2, up slightly on a year-over-
year basis, but half of levels recorded in
the two most recent quarters.
©2011 Real Capital Analytics, Inc. All rights reserved. Data believed to be accurate but not guaranteed; subject to future revision; based on properties & portfolios $10m and greater.
10