The document describes a system developed by the Discovery Analytics Center at Virginia Tech to forecast significant societal events, such as civil unrest and disease outbreaks, using open-source indicators. It highlights the system's architecture, data ingestion, and the successful forecasting of protests in various Latin American and Middle Eastern countries during notable events, including the Venezuelan protests of 2014. Supported by IARPA, the project emphasizes collaboration with academic and industrial partners to enhance predictive analytics capabilities.

1. Venezuelan(Spring(‘14( ILI(Forecasts(
EMBERS: Forecasting Significant Societal Events using Open Source Indicators
Discovery Analytics Center, Virginia Tech
Contact: Naren Ramakrishnan, Principal Investigator, naren@cs.vt.edu
Introduction
System(Architecture(Produc>on(Cluster(
~20+(TB!Total!Archived!Data!
~3(Billion(Messages!
~15(GB!ingested!per!day!
Over!12,000!warnings!delivered!
Average!40!warnings!/!day!
12!EC2!instances!used!for!produc>on!
16!vCPUs,!50(GB!Virtual!Memory!
System(Sta>s>cs(
Goal:"Build"system"to"forecast"events"
"from"readily"available"public"data"
IARPA!OSI!Program!
• Forecast!major!popula>onIlevel!events!of!
substan>al!societal!importance!
• Civil!unrest!incidents,!elec>ons,!rare!disease!
outbreaks,!influenzaIlike!illnesses!
!!!!!!!!–!When,!Where,!Who!and!Why!?!
• Focus!regions!include!20!countries!in!La>n!America!
and!7!countries!in!Middle!East!&!North!Africa!
Matching(Warnings(and(Events(
t1(
Forecast!
Date!
t2(
Event!
Date!
t3(
Predicted!
Event!Date!
t4(
Reported!
Date!
Lead!Time!
Date!
Quality!
Selected Results
Planned(Protest(Model(
Extracts! event! announcements!
from! tradi>onal! ! news! and!
social!media!
Dynamic(Query(Expansion(
Model(
Adap>vely! extracts! keywords!
related!to!protests!
Volume(Based(Model(
Machine! learning! model! that!
maps!volume!based!features!to!
protests!
Cascades(Model(
Tracks! targeted! campaigns! and!
populariza>on! of! causes! on!
TwiXer!
Baseline(Model(
Uses! Maximum! Likelihood!
Es>mate!over!past!GSR!reports!
to!forecast!protests!
Civil Unrest
((((((Fusion(&(
Suppression(
Influenza-like IllnessesRare Diseases
vs.!
""Evaluated"by"MITRE"
Tensor(Decomposi>on( Anomaly(Detec>on( Warning(
Audit(Trail(
GeoSLoca>on((
Filter(
Keywords(
Filter(
Predicate(
Filter(
PreSProcessing(
(((((Seed((
Vocabulary(
PSL(
Processing(
Keywords(for((
Itera>on(
Threshold(
Filter(
Membership(
Inference(
PostSProcessing(
Brazilian(Spring’13( Spread(of(Protests( Rare(Disease(Forecasts(
Discovery!Analy>cs!Center!
EMBERS!is!led!by!the!Discovery!Analy>cs!Center!at!Virginia!Tech!with!numerous!industrial!and!academic!partners,!including!University!of!Maryland,!College!Park,!Cornell!University,!Children's!Hospital!Boston/Harvard!Medical!School,!!
University!of!California!San!Diego,!San!Diego!State!University,!CACI!Inc.,!Basis!Technology,!University!at!Albany,!University!of!California!Santa!Cruz,!Northeastern!University,!Carnegie!Mellon!University,!University!of!Utah,!and!Raytheon/BBN!Technologies.!
Supported!by!the!Intelligence!Advanced!Research!Projects!Ac>vity!(IARPA)!via!DoI/NBC!contract!number!D12PC000337,!the!US!Government!is!authorized!to!reproduce!and!distribute!reprints!of!this!work!for!Governmental!purposes!notwithstanding!any!copyright!annota>on!thereon.!
Disclaimer:!The!views!and!conclusions!contained!herein!are!those!of!the!authors!and!should!not!be!interpreted!as!necessarily!represen>ng!the!official!policies!or!endorsements,!either!expressed!or!implied,!of!IARPA,!DoI/NBC,!or!the!US!Government.!
Elections
Collaborators((
1. for!classified!research!components!
2. with!access!to!relevant!data!sources!
3. with!exper>se!in!modeling!terrorism!
and!military!ac>ons!
Seeking

2. Planned'Protest'Model'
Extracts( event( announcements( from(
tradi2onal((news(and(social(media(
Dynamic'Query'Expansion'Model'
Iden2fies( a( dynamically( growing( list( of(
keywords(related(to(protests(
Volume'Based'Model'
Machine( learning( model( that( maps(
volume(based(features(to(protests(
Cascades'Model'
Tracks(targeted(campaigns(and(
populariza2on(of(causes(on(Twi@er(
Baseline'Model'
Uses(Maximum(Likelihood(Es2mate(on(
past(GSR(reports(to(predict(protests(
‘Beating the News’ with EMBERS: Forecasting Civil Unrest using Open Source Indicators
Naren Ramakrishnan, Patrick Butler, Sathappan Muthiah, Nathan Self, Rupinder Khandpur, Parang Saraf, Wei Wang, Jose Cadena, Anil Vullikanti, Gizem
Korkmaz, Chris Kuhlman, Achla Marathe, Liang Zhao, Ting Hua, Feng Chen, Chang-Tien Lu, Bert Huang, Aravind Srinivasan, Khoa Trinh, Lise Getoor,
Graham Katz, Andy Doyle, Chris Ackermann, Ilya Zavorin, Jim Ford, Kristen Summers, Youssef Fayed, Jaime Arredondo, Dipak Gupta, David Mares
Introduction
EMBERS
Evaluation
Fusion'and'
Suppression'
#(of(Warnings(
Date(
Vs.(
Evaluated)by)
MITRE)
Brazilian'Spring' Venezuelan'Protests'‘14'
System'Architecture'ProducCon'Cluster'
~13'TB(Total(Archived(Data(
~3'Billion'Messages(
~15'GB(ingested(per(day(
Over(12,000(warnings(delivered(
Average(40(warnings(/(day(
12(EC2(instances(used(for(produc2on(
16(vCPUs,(50'GB(Virtual(Memory(
System'StaCsCcs'
Goal:)Build)system)to)forecast)these)events)
from)readily)available)public)data)
IARPA(OSI(Program(
• Forecast( major( popula2onTlevel( events( of(
substan2al(societal(importance(
• Civil(Unrest(
− When,(Where,(Who(and(Why(?(
• Regional(focus(on(10(countries(in(La2n(
(((((America(:T(AR,(BR,(CL,(CO,(EC,(MX,(PY((
(((((SV,(UY,(and(VE(
Warning)Audit)Trail)
Warning'PredicCon'
t1'
Forecast(
Date(
t2'
Event(
Date(
t3'
Predicted(
Event(Date(
t4'
Reported(
Date(
Lead(Time(
Date(
Quality(

3. Brazilian Spring ‘13 Venezuelan Protests ‘14 Mexico Protests ‘14
Warning'Id' Loca-on' Date' Delivered' Model' Keywords'
5356$ Fortaleza$ June$27th$$ June$26th$$ Dynamic$Query$
Expansion$
Reform,$Polit,$Plebiscit,$
Dilm,$ConsCtuent$
5247$ Rio$de$Janeiro$ June$30th$$ June$24th$$ Planned$Protest$ Comienzan$Protestas$
5620$ Rio$de$Janeiro$ June$30th$$ June$29th$$ LASSO$ Caminar,$Evaluar,$
Violencia$
5582$ Salvador$ June$30th$$ June$29th$$ Dynamic$Query$
Expansion$
Protest,$Manifest,$Polic,$
Fortal,$Govern,$Apos$
MITRE'ID' Loca-on' Date'
7912$ Fortaleza$ June$27th$$
$
7968$ Salvador$ June$30th$$
7967$ Rio$de$
Janeiro$
June$30th$$
7966$ Rio$de$
Janeiro$
June$30th$$
Warning'Id' Loca-on' Date' Delivered' Model' Keywords'
12081$ Maracaibo$ Feb$12th$$ Feb$11th$$ Dynamic$Query$
Expansion$
Liberacion,$Exigir,$
Estundiante,$Trabajador$
11838$ Caracas$ Feb$12th$$ Feb$3rd$$ Planned$Protest$ llamando$protesta$
12120$ Los$Teques$ Feb$13th$$ Feb$12th$$ Dynamic$Query$
Expansion$
Papel,$Conatel,$Medio,$
#12f,$estudianCl$
12242$ Caracas$ Feb$18th$$ Feb$17th$$ Planned$Protest$ Call$Rally$
MITRE'ID' Loca-on' Date'
16238$ Maracaibo$ Feb$12th$$
$
16254$ Los$Teques$ Feb$13th$$
16353$ Caracas$ Feb$18th$$
$
16220$ Caracas$ Feb$12th$$
Warning'Id' Loca-on' Date' Delivered' Model' Keywords'
22794$ Ciudad$de$
Mexico$
Nov$5th$$ Nov$4th$$ Dynamic$Query$
Expansion$
Marcha,$#ABRE,$
#Ayotzinapa,$formacion$
22654$ Ciudad$de$
Mexico$
Nov$5th$$ Oct$31st$$ Planned$Protest$ Marcha,$Annunciar$paro$
23606$ Veracruz$ Nov$20th$ Nov$17th$$ Planned$Protest$ anunciar$movilizacion$
23851$ Oaxaca$de$
Juarez$
Nov$20th$$ Nov$19th$$ Dynamic$Query$
Expansion$
#gobiernohidalgo,$
paco_olvera,$Ayotzinapa$
MITRE'ID' Loca-on' Date'
25898$ Ciudad$de$
Mexico$
Nov$5th$
25900$ Ciudad$de$
Mexico$
Nov$5th$$
26200$ Veracruz$ Nov$5th$$
26190$ Oaxaca$de$
Juarez$
Nov$20th$$
EMBERS: Forecasting Significant Societal Events using Open Source Indicators
Discovery Analytics Center, Virginia Tech
Contact: Naren Ramakrishnan, Principal Investigator, naren@cs.vt.edu
Discovery$AnalyCcs$Center$
EMBERS$is$led$by$the$Discovery$AnalyCcs$Center$at$Virginia$Tech$with$numerous$industrial$and$academic$partners,$including$University$of$Maryland,$College$Park,$Cornell$University,$Children's$Hospital$Boston/Harvard$Medical$School,$$
University$of$California$San$Diego,$San$Diego$State$University,$CACI$Inc.,$Basis$Technology,$University$at$Albany,$University$of$California$Santa$Cruz,$Northeastern$University,$Carnegie$Mellon$University,$University$of$Utah,$and$Raytheon/BBN$Technologies.$
Supported$by$the$Intelligence$Advanced$Research$Projects$AcCvity$(IARPA)$via$DoI/NBC$contract$number$D12PC000337,$the$US$Government$is$authorized$to$reproduce$and$distribute$reprints$of$this$work$for$Governmental$purposes$notwithstanding$any$copyright$annotaCon$thereon.$
Disclaimer:$The$views$and$conclusions$contained$herein$are$those$of$the$authors$and$should$not$be$interpreted$as$necessarily$represenCng$the$official$policies$or$endorsements,$either$expressed$or$implied,$of$IARPA,$DoI/NBC,$or$the$US$Government.$
• In$June'2013$countrywide$protests$erupted$in$Brazil,$also$
known$as$the$Vinegar'Movement'
• Reason:' Increase$ in$ Bus$ Fares,$ CorrupCon,$ Health$ &$
EducaCon$Costs$
• Major$ protests$ occurred$ in$ the$ host$ ciCes$ of$ the$ FIFA$
ConfederaCons$ Cup$ matches,$ which$ were$ forecast$ by$
EMBERS.$
• NaConwide$Venezuelan$protests$began$in$February'2014$$
• Reason:$ Indifference$ to$ student$ concerns,$ high$ levels$ of$
criminal$violence,$inflaCon$and$chronic$scarcity$of$basic$goods$
due$to$strict$price$controls$enforced$by$the$government$
• Killing$of$Miss$Venezuela$2004$(Monica$Spears)$and$her$exj
husband$ followed$ by$ an$ akempted$ rape$ of$ a$ student$
triggered$the$events$
• During$the$months$of$September'–'November'2014,$Mexico$
experienced$countrywide$protests'$$
• Reason:$On$September'26th,'43$male$college$students$from$
Ayotzinapa$went$missing$which$led$to$a$naConwide$outcry$$
• A$mass$grave$of$28$students$was$discovered$on$October'5th$
• On$ November' 20th,$ relaCves$ of$ missing$ Mexican$ students$
led$mass$protest$in$Mexico$
EMBERS$Warnings$ GSR$ EMBERS$Warnings$ GSR$ EMBERS$Warnings$ GSR$
Word$Cloud$from$EMBERS$Alerts$Word$Cloud$from$EMBERS$Alerts$ $$$$$$$$$GSR$vs.$EMBERS$Counts$ $$$$$$$$$$$GSR$vs.$EMBERS$Counts$ Word$Cloud$from$EMBERS$Alerts$ $$$$$$$$$$GSR$vs.$EMBERS$Counts$
GSR$vs.$EMBERS$SpaCal$DistribuCon$ GSR$vs.$EMBERS$SpaCal$DistribuCon$ GSR$vs.$EMBERS$SpaCal$DistribuCon$
On$June$27th,$in$Fortaleza,$
5000$protestors$clashed$with$
police$near$the$castelao(
stadium.$EMBERS$sends$out$
an$alert$the$day$before$
On$June$30th,$mass$
protests$occurred$
in$Rio$de$Janeiro$&$
Salvador.$EMBERS$
forecast$these$
events$and$sends$
out$mulCple$alerts$
on$June$28th$&$29th$
for$these$ciCes$
68%$of$the$EMBERS$alerts$
resulted$from$the$
Planned(Protest(model$
indicaCng$that$social$
networking$sites$and$
convenConal$news$media$
played$a$key$role$in$
organizing$these$
uprisings$
On$Feb$11th,$EMBERS$
captured$the$first$“calls(
to(protest”$from$several$
open$source$indicators$
for$the$trigger$city$–$San(
Cristobal$(with$more$
alerts$generated$for$
nearby$regions$Merida$
&$Maracaibo)$
From$5th$–$8th$October,$
EMBERS$generated$a$series$
of$alert$spikes,$coinciding$
with$the$first$large$scale,$
naConwide$protests$
During$13th$–$29th$
October,$EMBERS$
captures$several$statej
wide$protests$
On$November$5th,$EMBERS$
generates$mulCple$alerts$
for$massive$protests$in$
Mexico$City$