Vietnam - Wind Power - Moving towards completion - With the newly-proposed wind FiT in dispute, the government should extend support to developers to ensure project realization.

1. Vietnam - Wind Power - Moving towards completion - With the newly-
proposed wind FiT in dispute, the government should extend support to
developers to ensure project realization.
With the newly-proposed wind FiT in dispute, the government should extend support to
developers to ensure project realization.
Some 22 wind power projects with a combined capacity of 907MW are set to be put into operation in
central Quang Tri province by year’s end in order to meet the deadline for accessing the existing Feed-in-
Tariff (FiT) on wind power, under which the commercial operations date (COD) is October this year at the
latest. A raft of wind power developers around the country have also been speeding up construction to get
projects underway this year. While the Ministry of Industry and Trade (MolT) has proposed continuing the
FiT for wind power, it lowers it by over 17 per cent, which has triggered concern among wind power
developers in the country.
Good or bad?
The proposed new FiT, included in an official letter from MolT last October, will be 7.02 US cents per
kWh for onshore wind and 8.47 US cents for inter-tidal / nearshore wind, applicable to projects
commissioned between
November this year and December 2023. This represents a cut of more than 17 per cent for onshore wind,
one of the most dramatic seen in any wind power market globally, according to the Global Wind Energy
Council (GWEC).
“The proposed dramatic reduction to the FiT risks seriously damaging the growth of Vietnam’s
promising wind power sector, slow- ing down investment and the creation of new jobs and making it harder
for Vietnam to meet growing energy demand,” GWEC noted in a press release last December. “Based on
market forecasts and experience in other wind markets, a FiT reduction of this size would derail investment
in new and planned wind projects in Vietnam and threaten the country’s current position as a leading wind
market in Southeast Asia.”
The current wind energy FiT, which will end with the COD in October, has attracted various market
players. The first draft for the third F iT for wind onshore and nearshore has been under discussion since
the end of 2020. However, for most market participants, it is no surprise that a lower FiT is being con-
sidered, according to Mr. Henri Wasnick, Senior Advisor to the Renewable Energy Center of the Institute
of Energy at MolT.
It is important to understand that the FiT mechanism has various factors that drive project realization,
he explained. Against this reality, the lower FiT, after a certain number of installed capacities, could help
steer initial project planning to high quality areas with a minimum necessary wind speed and good
possibilities for grid connection and land use rights. This, together with a scoring mechanism in the form
of a project development rating that makes good projects “early movers”, can support more feasible
projects in the energy mix to find an investor and reach the COD.
“The FiT is not the only decisive factor for project due diligence or for projects in operation,” he said.
“It is just one single piece in a bigger picture of many factors in project realization. Bankable Power
Purchase Agreements (PPAs), project due diligence, clear administrative procedures, the political land-
scape, and so on are also taken into account when investments are made.”
One Thai advisor on renewable energy, meanwhile, said wind developers would need to conduct new
feasibility studies to see if the return on investment is still sufficiently attractive. “Returns are related to
revenue, which of course will be reduced,” he told VET. “On the positive side, however, the engineering,

2. procurement, and construction (EPC) cost may also be reduced due to
improvements in technology that make the turbine size bigger, so the quantity of units required could be
reduced, which means construction costs will also be reduced. Apart from unit size, efficiency will
also improve and more electricity will be
generated, resulting in improve- ments to
revenue.”
Uncertainties linger
Professional developers can still find
serious investors even with the lower
FiT, according to Mr. Wasnick. “The
reason why many projects currently
haven’t found an investor is not the new
FiT, it is because project quality is
simply not good enough,” he said. “Such projects are obstacles to the intended capacity of green energy in
the energy mix. If they are identified by ratings, it could lead to more feasible projects being included in
the energy mix.”
Wind power is to be the first chapter of Vietnam’s energy story to 2050, and the country possesses
excellent wind resources and skilled developers and technicians who can deliver reliable clean electricity
for more sus- tainable economic growth. “This proposal follows a trend of rapid reductions in incentives
offered to power producers in Vietnam’s renewables market,” said Mr. Gavin Smith, Vice Chairman of
EuroCham’s Green Growth Sector Committee (GGSC). “The cost of pro-ducing wind power has fallen
dramatically across the globe, by reducing the cost of equipment and the cost of capital.”
He believes that wind power developers are looking for government assistance to resolve long-standing
issues regarding imbalances in PPAs, local regulatory barriers, and uncertain processes for land and
licensing. That is par- ticularly true of offshore wind development, where the scale of investment is huge
and the risk for investors must be moderated if Vietnam is to achieve its wind power goals.
“Wind power in Vietnam is still in its infancy and this reduction in future income from power plants
may limit the market to those developers with access to very cheap capital and who have experience in the
coun- try’s wind power market,” Mr. Smith empha- sized. “That may block Vietnamese companies from
entering the booming market and make international developers dominant.”
Meanwhile, total solar power capacity (including floating) put into operation as of the end of2020 totaled
some 17GW, primarily in southern and central highlands provinces. “Transmission grids lack the quality,
especially in Ninh Thuan and Binh Thuan provinces, to accommodate the increasing number of solar power
projects and reductions in construction time due to advanced technology,” sad Dr. Oliver Massmann,
General Director of Duane Morris. “As a result, most projects that have come into operation in these
localities are subject to daily declines in generation capacity to avoid overloading the regional grid.
Solutions proposed
Since Covid-19 remains a threat globally and Vietnam is dependent upon international supply chains,
projects that already have a PPA should be given more time to secure financing and be subject to some
flexibility with regard to planned CODs, Mr. Wasnick said. But it is also necessary to consider that current
implementation cycles, which are under discussion, are still too short for many large-scale projects.
Construction and commissioning phases take time in Vietnam. Realistically, an onshore wind project
will need at least two years to move from the investment licensing stage to the COD, depending on the
number of wind turbines. Meanwhile, banks need a valid FiT and a bankable PPA. The FiT mechanism,
there- fore, needs to be announced on time for project investors to prepare, Mr. Wasnick suggested.
OFFSHOREWINDFORECAST
8.0
7-0 □ I nter-tidal
g 6.0 ■ Offshore
a
H? 5 0
03
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Operational year
Source: RCG’s Global Renewable Infrastructure Project

3. Meanwhile, the GGSC and GWEC wrote to the government last year to call for a clear, long-term
commitment to buy wind-powered electricity that would allow developers to invest the necessary billions
of dollars with confidence that Vietnam is a strong and com- mitted partner in clean energy. If developers
see reasonable treatment and support from MoIT, onshore and offshore wind could make a huge
contribution to the country meeting its twin goals of moderating greenhouse gas emissions and having
secure, reliable power supply at a predictable cost.
The government, Mr. Smith proposed, must also look beyond the singular view of large wind farms
selling electricity to Electricity of Vietnam (EVN) and deliver on its promise to allow power consumers
direct access to clean energy through the delayed “Direct PPA Pilot Scheme” and to remove the heavy
regulations blocking more on-site “Behind the Meter” power plants that sell power directly to large power
consumers.
It is expected that the expansion of onshore and nearshore wind projects will increase sig- nificantly,
and the manufacturers of wind tur- bines have reported incoming orders amounting to around 2.3GW. Mr.
Wasnick, though, said that whether these projects reach the financial closing on time and are delivered,
commis- sioned, and put into operation on time is difficult to predict. Logistical bottlenecks are to be
expected, which could lead to delays.